No GNW (or “Peter goes South”)

[alexmilman]

Foreword:
Not sure if I’ll manage to make it into a TL (or if it will generate enough interest) but at least for the starters, the preamble is that Peter is mostly the same person as in OTL with the main difference him getting a habit to think first and act then and not other way around. With the benefit of a hindsight he eventually acknowledged in OTL that at the time he entered the GNW he was completely “blind” about the enemy. His exercises on the Pruth and in Persia had been pretty much along the same lines. Making him less cruel, obnoxious, etc. would be unrealistic () but perhaps less impulsive modus operandi can be believable without introduction of the friendly ASBs.

While it is tempting to pile up all imaginable innovations in all possible areas, I think that limiting the activities to those which did happen in OTL during his reign or within 2-3 decades after his death and required the same level of technology and scientific knowledge are realistic and should fit into “think first, then act” behavioral model. OTOH, the fundamental social reforms, like abolishing serfdom, are going to be a pure fantasy.

1. Azov Campaigns

In 1696 after a great effort Russian army forced capitulation of Azov.

There was a huge celebration in Moscow but Peter was much less euphoric than most of his entourage: it took two campaigns (the first one failed), a tremendous effort to build some kind of a functional flotilla, great losses and as a result the besieging army of almost 60,000 could not take a rather obsolete fortress ( nothing like the Vauban-style fortresses of the Western Europe) by storm and garrison was starved into the honorary surrender and allowed to leave with the honors.
The war demonstrated weaknesses in pretty much all areas and they had to be addressed ASAP:
1. The logistics was simplified blue to the ability to provide supply by the river but otherwise the supply system was lousy (and suppliers not up to the task).
2. The siege artillery proved to be completely inadequate.
3. Not only the irregulars (Cossacks) but the regular troops as well had firearms of all imaginable calibers and even within the same regiment uniformity was anything but guaranteed.
4. Calibers of the field and siege artillery also were all over the place, guns’ carriages were of a low quality and for transportation the peasants had been commandeered with their horses.
5. Military production was absolutely not up to the task. In 1695 armory in Tula (pretty much the only big manufacturer of the firearms) produced only 1,000 muskets and Russia had to buy the firearms (assembled and in parts) abroad, mostly courtesy of the merchants of Amsterdam. Underlying issue was a weakness of the domestic metallurgy: it simply did not produce enough iron and steel. Situation with the materials needed for cannons (copper and tin) was not much better but at least there were plenty of the old cannons which could be melted and used to produce the new ones.
6. Training of the troops was clearly inadequate and the plug baginets proved to be a bad idea when used against the Janissary with their swords and yatagans.

Fortunately, the Ottomans had been mostly busy fighting on the European theater and simply incapable to bring more troops to the unimportant far end of their empire.

So, after Azov capitulated the both sides had been running a low intensity campaign with Sheremetev operating on the low Dnieper and building small forts there and Peter capturing Kerch at the entry to the Black Sea. By that time the Great Ottoman War had been coming to its end and the Russians were up to the next big disappointment which forced Peter to start paying serious attention to geopolitics (up to that time he was following the course of the Sophia-Golitsin foreign policy)….

 

[alexmilman]

2. Peace with the Ottomans

When the Congress at Karlowitz opened in October of 1698 Peter and his entourage had big but rather vague expectations based upon a naive assumption that the allies are going to support their interests (whatever these interests could be). Of course, this was plain silly (as most of the Russian diplomacy of that time): neither the Hapsburgs nor the PLC had been interested in strengthening the Russian positions on the Black Sea (to which neither of them had an access ) and the mediators, Britain and the Netherlands, had been interested in a speedy release of the Hapsburg forces in a view of the coming WoSS. Peter at that time was making his first European trip (leaving a trail of the destroyed property and empty bottles on his wake) but neither he nor his representative on the Congress, Voznitsin, could convince the allies to act against what they considered their own interests and to adopt the protocol which would include the Russian demands. The only thing achieved was Russian-Ottoman armistice for 2 years on condition that Russia returns all its conquests except Azov area and an agreement that the direct talks are going to continue in Constantinople.

For Peter this was a wake up call [1] and upon return from the trip he came to the conclusion that Russia has only two reliable allies, it’s army and its fleet [2] and that the best course of action is not to get into any international agreements until these two allies are strong enough to guarantee Russia position of an upper dog.

The first step in this direction was refusal to secretly meet in 1698 with King August of the PLC with a purpose to discuss a potential alliance [3] and then to discuss with the Danish ambassador a defensive alliance against Sweden. Peter’s logic was rather simple:
1. Existing Russian-Swedish treaty was not too bad and allowed flow of the Russian imports/exports through the Swedish Baltic ports. Taking into an account that even with a speedy development of the domestic armaments production (and metallurgy as a pre-requisite) it will take until few years for Russia to became self-sufficient in that area, it does not make sense to break the functioning system too early. Peter just ordered in Lubeck 30 cannons, 12 howitzers and 40 mortars and planned to make big order of the modern muskets through Amsterdam so keeping the “gates” open was quite important.
2. Sweden was a major supplier of the artillery. In 1697 Charles XII sent Peter a present of 300 artillery pieces [4] and Peter just ordered in Stockholm 280 iron cannons.
3. What could he get from Denmark and August? A lot of trouble with absolutely unclear outcome.
4. If by some chance they are successful, there will always be an opportunity to join the victorious side and to get Ingria to which none of them had any designs (swamps, lakes, tiny population and no economy to talk about).

So both Denmark and Saxony got a polite “Thanks but no, thanks” and Peter sent envoy to Constantinople to make a peace with the Ottomans. Expectations were not too high even if envoy, Ukraintsev, arrived on a newly built 46 gun ship “Krepost” accompanied by the whole Azov flotilla [5].

A resulting peace treaty ended up being …er… true to the expectations. Russia got Azov area (including newly-built Taganrog) but it did return Kerch. All fortifications built by the Russians between Dnieper and Bug had to be destroyed but the Ottomans had been under obligation to built an un fortified settlement on the lower Dnieper as a trade post. Most of the territory to the North of the Perekop line must be settlement free but the Crimeans retained right to use it as a pasture. Similarly, the border land on the Dnieper should be fortification free with the allowances for fishing and honey collection. The Cossacks and Crimeans must be prevented by their master states from raiding. The POWs has to be returned and the same goes for the captured women unless they converted to Islam. Tsardom stops paying tribute to the Crimea. There should be commissions watching for implementation.
Noticeable by its absence was the item about trade: this issue had to be addressed later by special envoy. As of immediately Peter was not pushing it because Russia did not have any merchant fleet and also because, regardless the mutual assurances, the Crimea still was a wild card and to deal with this challenge Peter needed to strengthen both his “allies”.





_____________
[1] In OTL it was not and Russian diplomacy for the most of the XVIII stuck with the pro-Austrian alliance which produced nothing except problems and disappointments.
[2] In OTL this conclusion was formulated only by NI but here Peter is slightly less busy with the carpentry which leaves him some time to coin the “historic sentences”.
[3] In OTL this meeting resulted in the verbal Agreement of Rava which paved the way to creation of the Northern Alliance.
[4] 150 3 pounders and 150 3.5 pounders https://history.wikireading.ru/265849
[5] Presumably, quality of the ship was not impressive. Besides questionable seaworthiness, in 10 years it was rotten beyond the repairs.

 

[Aghasverov]

YOU, alexmilman, are contemplating a TL?
That, for once, may be one that I will endeavour to keep up with, despite my notoriously-short attention span

 

[alexmilman]

YOU, alexmilman, are contemplating a TL?

Don’t know for how long my determination will last and how much of an interest (and interaction) this TL is going to generate: talking to myself ix not my favorite occupation.

That, for once, may be one that I will endeavour to keep up with, despite my notoriously-short attention span

Promises, promises…

 

[cloistered scholar]

Could St. Petersburg have been built near the Black sea? Perhaps near Rostov?

 

[alexmilman]

Could St. Petersburg have been built near the Black sea? Perhaps near Rostov?

Why not? At least the weather is warmer.

The problem is not construction of a new city but moving country’s capital close to the border. In OTL, with the Baltic Sea being “international” in the terms of an access and existing trade, there was certain sense in such a move but what sense would it make in the case of the Sea of Azov (near which Rostov on Don is located)? To whom Peter is going to show his “paradise”?

Anyway, quite a few things have to be accomplished before move of the capital can be put on agenda: alt-Peter, unlike the real one, is not prone to the knee jerk activities.

 

[Aghasverov]

Why not? At least the weather is warmer.

The problem is not construction of a new city but moving country’s capital close to the border. In OTL, with the Baltic Sea being “international” in the terms of an access and existing trade, there was certain sense in such a move but what sense would it make in the case of the Sea of Azov (near which Rostov on Don is located)? To whom Peter is going to show his “paradise”?

Anyway, quite a few things have to be accomplished before move of the capital can be put on agenda: alt-Peter, unlike the real one, is not prone to the knee jerk activities.

I like this idea of Peter the Great with a southward focus... OTL he certainly had an interest in southward expansion, although his efforts in that direction came nearly to nothing - he wound up returning most of the gains from the Turks within a few years, and his Caspian adventure resulted in a few posts in Mangystau (maybe suitable for drying fish ) and a tenuous hold on Persia's Caspian coast that evaporated not long after his death... He definitely could've accomplished more in the Caucasus.
Also, as you suggested, maybe he could've taken Ingria/Ingermannland anyway, since it really wasn't of any value to anyone else
My question is... what would be the POD? Short of making this a self-insert (though that's an intriguing idea ), it seems like there needs to be something that happens to Peter in his "formative years" - maybe during Sophia's regency? Or at latest in the very early years of his reign - that makes him more thoughtful, less rash and impetuous....

 

[alexmilman]

I like this idea of Peter the Great with a southward focus... OTL he certainly had an interest in southward expansion, although his efforts in that direction came nearly to nothing - he wound up returning most of the gains from the Turks within a few years, and his Caspian adventure resulted in a few posts in Magadan (maybe suitable for drying fish ) and a tenuous hold on Persia's Caspian coast that evaporated not long after his death... He definitely could've accomplished more in the Caucasus.

I’d say that Peter liked to run in all directions simultaneously but this is not true: once he choose Westward direction he stuck to it. It can be guessed that he simply could not live without a war (as pretty much was the case with Charles) and kept inventing the new ones when the current entertainment seemingly exhausted its potential as a source of fun (or application of his energy). There is an assumption regarding some mental illness causing his OTL behavior (a need for constant physical activity). Is it completely unrealistic to make him a little bit more normal?

Also, as you suggested, maybe he could've taken Ingria/Ingermannland anyway, since it really wasn't of any value to anyone else
My question is... what would be the POD? Short of making this a self-insert (though that's an intriguing idea ), it seems like there needs to be something that happens to Peter in his "formative years" - maybe during Sophia's regency? Or at latest in the very early years of his reign - that makes him more thoughtful, less rash and impetuous....

POD is a very good question. I’m tempted to offer a simplest solution of him being hit on a head at the ill-famous explosion of a mine during the 1st Azov () but can we do without the dramatics?

Funny as it may sound, the Azov campaigns had been his “formative years” as a ruler: of course by 1694 (death of his mother) he was a grown man of 22 and a father of a family but he was mostly entertaining himself playing soldier, sailing the boat, drinking, whoring and enjoying life with his buddies from the German Settlement. At the first opportunity he abandoned the boring issues of a ruling and fled on a foreign trip which he seemingly spent in the most unproductive way possible. Carpenter’s skills were useful but not necessarily for ruler of a country. OTOH, he seemingly learned close to nothing about diplomacy, political situation in Europe, military affairs (again, he got some skills of an artillery officer because he did like playing with the guns since his childhood) or any other thing really useful to the ruler. So his further life consisted of learning on his own mistakes even if he was not a fool.

The 1st Azov was a wake-up call (up to some degree) even in OTL: pretty much all his glorious dreams crumbled because the war suddenly proved to be quite different from the maneuvers at Kozukhovo, which strictly speaking were a big bloody mess with a banquet at the end (BTW, the “mining war” was not a big success even there). I want it to have a greater impact on Peter.

Then goes the 1st European trip - of course in OTL this did not happen but was it so difficult to figure out that he and his retinue had been viewed as some exotic curiosities (rather unpleasant ones) rather then the future serious partners and the following treatment of his representative at Karlowitz was an open slap on the face? Was it absolutely inevitable for Peter to assume his OTL position of a complete inferiority toward the West?

So why can’t Peter make the right conclusions out of the obvious facts and change his attitudes? After all, it is not like he is required to do something drastic like abandoning his obsession with the Western clothes, smoking and drinking or returning Vasily Golitsyn from the exile (I was tempted with that and still is). As you may notice, I did not even bring up an issue of the absurd soldiers’s uniforms (was tempted but I promised to stick to the reality as close as possible ). In the terms of his activities, all problems listed in the 1st part had been addressed in OTL either during Peter’s reign or soon afterwards, I’m just planning to move them ahead of the OTL schedule.

After all, Peter was not an idiot but a lousy initial decision to get involved into the war with Sweden had been pretty much dictating everything else including implementation of a reasonable part of his reforms. To a big degree this decision was triggered by a cold reception in Riga during his trip abroad (declaration of war to Sweden brings this offense as the only casus beli): the commandant did not allow him to look at the city fortifications and later had to explain his behavior to Charles. In OTL Charles did not bother to sent Peter a proper apology but let’s say that this was done (with few more free cannons ), the good relations are restored and August with his proposal is ignored. Peter also may dislike August personally considering his behavior condescending and being pissed off by the Polish position at Karlowitz: why would he trust him after the obvious betrayal?

But of course a good hit on a head as an event triggering his analytical capacities still looks like Occam’s razor.

 

[Ridcully]

Very interested in how this will proceed. Hope to see more of this timeline!

 

[IvanVII]

Если не будет Северной Войны Карл XII может вмешаться в войну за испанское наследство

 

[Jürgen]

Of course it bring up the other factors

What do Charles, Frederik and Augustus do. I can’t see Frederik starting a war with Sweden without the Russians. Augustus may start a war with Sweden on his own, but we could also see the Habsburg bribe him to join the War of Spanish Succession. This leave Charles, while we all tend to expect him to start some stupid war, but there’s the potential that he turn inward and focus on Sweden itself, honestly there’re a lot of low hanging fruit to strengthen the Swedish Empire, like forcing the Swedes to pay tax, abolish Estonian serfdom, establish one unified estate for the empire or remove domestic tariffs.

 

[Jan Olbracht]

Augustus hoped to gain Swedish Livonia to instal there his son as duke to secure his future election in PLC. Augustus could as well turn his attention to Moldavia instead if there is no opportunity to grab Livonia.

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

Of course it bring up the other factors

What do Charles, Frederik and Augustus do. I can’t see Frederik starting a war with Sweden without the Russians. Augustus may start a war with Sweden on his own, but we could also see the Habsburg bribe him to join the War of Spanish Succession. This leave Charles, while we all tend to expect him to start some stupid war, but there’s the potential that he turn inward and focus on Sweden itself, honestly there’re a lot of low hanging fruit to strengthen the Swedish Empire, like forcing the Swedes to pay tax, abolish Estonian serfdom, establish one unified estate for the empire or remove domestic tariffs.

Either way, no war (or at least, not the OTL GNW) means that Carl will have to put up with that niggly little question of "getting married". After all, IIRC, his excuse for not doing so OTL was the war and that he'd do it as soon as things "settled down". No war means that he has "less" of an excuse. So him leaving a kid can have some pretty massive effects on the whole Swedish "Age of Liberty" to come.

 

[Comte de Dordogne]

YOU, alexmilman, are contemplating a TL?

I'm on my ass too.
Once I pass my last midterm, I'll start reading too!

 

[alexmilman]

Of course it bring up the other factors

What do Charles, Frederik and Augustus do. I can’t see Frederik starting a war with Sweden without the Russians. Augustus may start a war with Sweden on his own, but we could also see the Habsburg bribe him to join the War of Spanish Succession. This leave Charles, while we all tend to expect him to start some stupid war, but there’s the potential that he turn inward and focus on Sweden itself, honestly there’re a lot of low hanging fruit to strengthen the Swedish Empire, like forcing the Swedes to pay tax, abolish Estonian serfdom, establish one unified estate for the empire or remove domestic tariffs.

Not everything at once: Charles is not forgotten but I’m still thinking about details of the “stupid war”.

BTW, why do you think that for Frederik Russian alliance was a must? After all, Russia was absolutely unknown military factor in 1699. Of course, Russian-Danish treaty of 1699 (which was signed few months earlier than one with August) looks as an absolute stupidity on Peter’s side if one takes “defense” seriously: unlike the case with Denmark, the reason for the Swedish attack on Russia was simply absent. But he was clearly itching for war or was just happy that a reputable European state is ready to take him seriously.

So is Danish war without Russia unrealistic or just unlikely?

As for Charles, he was AFAIK doing a lot of the statesmanship work even during the war but, OTOH, he had an army to maintain and a lot of the not too rich Swedish nobles who considered a war as a way to improve their situation (and to win some glory). Of course, he could sell services of his army to a higher bidder (or to one who suited him politically) and remain at home but he does not look the type.

And a recipient of his services/ally is not an obvious choice (I’m still in process of choosing the lucky one ).

 

[Wesley_Lewt]

Watched

 

[alexmilman]

3. Putting house to order [1]

3.1. Naval issues
With the peace with the Ottomans being signed and the Danish and Saxon attempts to get Russia into a new war failing, Peter faced some serious challenges in implementing his improvements program.

As a part of his Azov campaigns Peter founded in 1696 a set of the wharfs in Voronezh area on which the ships were built to sail down the Voronezh River to the Don and then to Azov. Initially, construction had been handled by the private companies on the shares but soon enough Peter found them inefficient: “the ships are expensive, badly built and more suitable for the commercial usage” [2]. To deal with that problem and with the attempt of the hired foreign specialist to leave after their contracts expired, in 1700 Peter founded Voronezh Admiralty under the leadership of his relative F.M.Apraxin. Voronezh and the wharfs area were surrounded by the troops and under the penalty of death the locals had been forbidden to provide transport to the wharfs’ employees without a special permission. The companies had been paid off and the state picked up the charge.

On paper everything was fine and peachy. Within few years more than 200 ships of all sizes had been built for Azov flotilla including ships of the line carrying from 54 to 70 guns [3]. Taking into an account specifics of the Sea of Azov and those of the potential operations on the other side of the Crimean Peninsula (very shallow waters, especially on both sides of the Perekop) the small craft was very important, especially the galleys and “double sloops” [4]. However, there were two fundamental problems to address:
1st was the tendency to do cheap and lousy job using wood of a low quality and not properly dried. This was at least to a certain degree addressed by the order to pay close attention to the quality vs quantity with the typical Petrian “stimulus” involving various types of a painful and slow death [5].

2nd problem was much more complicated. Voronezh is well upstream from the Sea of Azov and both Voronezh River and the Don are not the deepest rivers in the world, to put it mildly and, from time to time, their water level goes down even comparing to the normal one. As a result, to get the s big ships all the way to newly built Taganrog, they had to be built with a reasonably small draft and almost flat-bottomed, which was not too good for the operations outside the Sea of Azov. To add to that problem, the lower Don River was a border with the Crimean Khanate and in the case of war the whole schema potentially may become vulnerable, especially if the Crimeans are going to get some Ottoman help with the infantry and artillery. Building a wharf in a newly-founded Taganrog would face obvious supply problems and difficulties with getting and holding there a work force of the required size: unlike Voronezh, the place had very little in the terms of a local population.

Radical solution of the second problem was possible only by war but in a meantime Peter was using the peace for having done as much as possible. One more component needed was an adequate supply of the artillery, cables, sailcloth, etc. and this required serious upgrade of the Russian manufacturing in more than one area [6].


[1] The issue of other OTL participants of the GNW is postponed awaiting @Jürgen considerations on why Denmark would not go to war without Russia: we do not want an unnecessary bloodshed, don’t we?
[2] From the report of Austrian ambassador to Vienna, 1698.
[3] In OTL 14 ships of the line had been built in 1700 - 1710. Probably, without the GNW we can reasonably expect a greater number. . In 1704, according to Peter’s list, the Ottomans had 24 ships of the line having from 54 to 114 guns. It is not clear if this was the whole Ottoman fleet including forces on the Med and what types of the guns they had. In Peter’s list the prevailing calibers are 60-70 pounds which allows an assumption that these guns could be the old ones firing the stone cannonballs (on HMS Victory, with the exception of two 68 pounder carronades, the heaviest caliber was 32 pounds).
[4] small sail and oar vessels carrying up to 15 guns suitable for operations in the shallow waters and being used both as the troops carriers and as a precursor of the cannon boats when they were carrying few 32 pounder or 96 pounder howitzers.
[5] Part about the quality requires alt-Peter because the real one tended to start paying attention only after the money had been spent and “oops” already happened. But “stimulus” part does not require any changes: see above regarding Voronezh Admiralty.
[6] Russia already was a major producer of hemp and flax but tended to sell them abroad as the raw materials. In OTL Peter tended to start with the state run big manufactures and only after they proved to be unsatisfactory switch to the private sector; another his OTL shtick was …er… “command economy”: the regulations issued based upon what he knew about the “Western experience” without a slightest regard to the local specifics. Usually, these experiments tended to end up badly (except for the cases when he was distracted by something else and forgot about his orders). In this TL Peter is not such a big control freak as in OTL with the resulting fewer economic and production offsets in manufacturing and trade. I’ll try to address this in the next section because the military reforms require a manufacturing base.

 

[von Adler]

The Danes were itching for war during this era, and I think they would go to war even without Russia - they tried to go at it alone in 1683 and 1688 and were only dissuaded by the rapid intervention of the Anglo-Dutch alliance. Denmark and Saxony will probably start the Great Northern War even without Russia, especially Denmark if she believes the guarantors of the Altona Convention of 1689 (the British, Dutch and Swedes) are distracted by the War of Spanish Succession.

This might see the Swedish navy escort Dutch and English/British shipping carrying Russian naval supplies for the Dutch and English/British against the Danish navy and some kind of thawing of Russo-Swedish relations due to this.

Considering Sweden was able to pretty much dominate both Denmark and Saxony during this era, even with the Russian sending substantial support for the Saxonians both in Poland-Lithuania an in incursions into Ingria and raids into Estonia and Livonia, the Great Northern War might end in a pretty clear Swedish victory.

Charles and Peter migh enjoy good relations, with Sweden willing to support Russian claims in the eastern part of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth and provide mercenary officers and instructors as well as modern artillery (Sweden had done so before when Russia and Sweden had Poland as a common enemy, and Russian money is as good as any other money at this time, so why not?).

If Karl and Peter meets, their different views on drinking might clash, though.

 

[alexmilman]

The Danes were itching for war during this era, and I think they would go to war even without Russia - they tried to go at it alone in 1683 and 1688 and were only dissuaded by the rapid intervention of the Anglo-Dutch alliance. Denmark and Saxony will probably start the Great Northern War even without Russia, especially Denmark if she believes the guarantors of the Altona Convention of 1689 (the British, Dutch and Swedes) are distracted by the War of Spanish Succession.

This might see the Swedish navy escort Dutch and English/British shipping carrying Russian naval supplies for the Dutch and English/British against the Danish navy and some kind of thawing of Russo-Swedish relations due to this.

They don’t have to be frozen to start with and if Peter does not consider access to the Baltic coast as a high priority then both sides can live happily for quite a while.

Considering Sweden was able to pretty much dominate both Denmark and Saxony during this era, even with the Russian sending substantial support for the Saxonians both in Poland-Lithuania an in incursions into Ingria and raids into Estonia and Livonia, the Great Northern War might end in a pretty clear Swedish victory.

Charles and Peter migh enjoy good relations, with Sweden willing to support Russian claims in the eastern part of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth and provide mercenary officers and instructors as well as modern artillery (Sweden had done so before when Russia and Sweden had Poland as a common enemy, and Russian money is as good as any other money at this time, so why not?).

I was thinking along the PLC. The main formal problem is that in this scenario, even with Charles happily chasing August all over the PLC, the PLC may not be officially at war with Sweden and with Charles putting his own client upon the PLC throne and attempt to arrange for the “Partition 0” may easily result in a war with Sweden. A side question is wot which end any reasonable ruler would want a part of the Eastern PLC? Anyway, for quite a while Peter is going to be busy preparing to war with the Ottomans and then even more busy fighting it. Getting a piece of the Lithuanian forests of Belorussian swamps probably does not worth related troubles.

But I have a question: Swedish officers in the Russian army would be nothing new (Baur and von Rönne had been Swedish subjects) but what about a probability of the Russian “volunteers” serving in the Swedish army? Would they be accepted?

If Karl and Peter meets, their different views on drinking might clash, though.

Well, more for Peter to drink. But, IIRC, there were rumors that before sailing upon his “crusade” Charles was not exactly an abstinent.

 

[Merrick]

This looks fun. OTL Peter was so random that you can excuse a butterfly party.

I was thinking along the PLC. The main formal problem is that in this scenario, even with Charles happily chasing August all over the PLC, the PLC may not be officially at war with Sweden and with Charles putting his own client upon the PLC throne and attempt to arrange for the “Partition 0” may easily result in a war with Sweden.

I was also thinking of the PLC - if a war breaks out and Charles makes a big a mess of Poland as he did OTL, then a weakened PLC might look tempting. If Russia and Sweden are still reasonably friendly there's the potential for a pile-on and an early start on the partitions. (What was Brandenburg-Prussia doing at the time? They have a history with Sweden, but I can't see them being keen on Saxony-Poland being an ongoing thing. Or were they too busy with the Spanish Succession?)

A side question is wot which end any reasonable ruler would want a part of the Eastern PLC? Anyway, for quite a while Peter is going to be busy preparing to war with the Ottomans and then even more busy fighting it. Getting a piece of the Lithuanian forests of Belorussian swamps probably does not worth related troubles.

Why would any reasonable ruler want a piece of even-more-Godforsaken swamp in Ingria? I was even thinking there might be a deal on here, with Peter getting a piece of Swedish Livonia for his Baltic coast in return for helping the Swedes expand Swedish Pommerania at Poland's expense. But any sort of real Russo-Swedish alliance require diplomacy and but for the other Peter and Charles would both be the most impossible man in Europe, so...