Yep. Engels was quite a “visionary” in his self-declared area of expertise, the military/naval matters. To quote Stanislaw Jerzy Lec, “in him you can feel a huge emptiness filled to the brink with an erudition.” 😂
No GNW (or “Peter goes South”)
- Thread starter alexmilman
- Start date
Time of the coalitions #1
452. Time of the coalitions #1
Europe after 1932.
Forming Vertical Axis
Poland. Manipulations of the so-called “Great Powers” and the internal enemies on their employment did prevent the glorious army of the 2nd Republic form achieving a well-deserved overwhelming victory in Cieszyn War stopping it just at the moment when Marshal Rydz-Smigli was ready to deliver the coup de grace to the enemy in the Battle at the Olza River. Of course, not a square meter of the territory had been lost to the enemy but the historic injustice prevailed and thousands of ethnic Poles remained under the cruel yoke of their Czech oppressors. Speaking of the yoke, thousands and thousands of the ethnic Poles still remained oppressed at the territories held by Sweden, Germany and Russia. They could not be abandoned by a mother-country and their liberation was just a matter of time and preparedness.
As far as “preparedness” was involved, the war demonstrated that, besides the unquestionable superior bravery, the movies already had been made showing heroic and successful cavalry charges on the Czech tanks and infantry, the army can benefit from having more of the tanks, guns and aviation. Preferably, domestically produced to minimize dependency upon the Perfidious France and Britain who already demonstrated their unwillingness to sacrifice their own selfish interests for the just Polish cause, which was quite absurd, taking into an account their big investments into the Polish industries (51% into mining, 65% into metallurgy, 24% into mechanical and electrical engineering, 40% into chemical industry). All of the above meant that the 2nd Republic needs more industry of its own and that it also needs the reliable allies sharing its interests.
In the first area the government, since the late 1920s had been making dedicated investments into the industrial development in the Central and Western regions and by 1932 the country was producing 1,036 thousands tons of steel. Mostly from the imported scrap iron but nonetheless. It also, thanks to the “customs war” with Germany and general protectionist policy, achieved a noticeable technological progress developing its own electrical and chemical industry (especially production of synthetic silk), the production of radio devices, the rubber industry, etc. has developed. Of course, with a shortage of the foreign loans, this meant that population would have to subsidize all these investments but this was only expected from the true patriots. Those who were false patriots or the hidden enemy’s agents would have to be dealt with harshly.
As far as the potential targets of the planned reconquests were involved, there would be of course, priorities: neither Rydz-Smigli nor Beck were insane enough to plan an attack against all of them. The first step would be to attack Austria-Bohemia and get Cieszyn and industrial area beyond it. The newly-acquired industrial potential and reparations would allow to proceed with the next step, conquest of the German Silesia and East Prussia. After this is done, Sweden will be attacked at Danzig region and Lithuania. Russia owned territories most of which had close to zero Polish population but getting back the right bank Ukraine would be a historically justified act.
In the second, diplomatic, area Beck claimed a number of the diplomatic triumphs in finding the willing members of a future coalition who had interests compatible with Polish, aka, having desire of getting the pieces of Austria-Bohemia territor: Italy wanted Trieste region and Serbia wanted the Austrian and Hungarian territories inhabited by the Serbs (which, in context, also meant Croats and Bosnians).
Italy was in the last stages of suppressing resistance in Libyan and Cyrenaica and its PM, Benito Mussolini, started getting more and more ambitious dreaming about the colonial empire rivaling those of Britain and France. In Europe, besides Austrian coastal region, he wanted Albania (why would anybody in his right senses wanted to possess it was a complete mystery) and perhaps even Greece, which would turn Adriatic into the Italian lake. Not stopping there, he was putting a lot of money into construction of a powerful modern navy that will be able not just to squash the small Austrian fleet on the Adriatic but also successfully challenge the French Mediterranean fleet thus cutting, if necessary, French route to the Suez, which, as he expected, would give him the free hand in restoring the old Italian positions on the Red Sea and subdue Ethiopia: he expected that if a risk of a serious confrontation with the unclear outcome is too big, then France may just allow a free shipping of troops and military supplies to the Italian base in Eritrea rather than go to war on behalf of Ethiopia. When this is accomplished, there could be a serious discussion of the future rearrangements in Africa but the first things first, the Austrian possessions of the Italian territory must be dealt with. Maybe Tyrol should be made Italian as well…
Anyway, Italian aviation designers had very good reputation and the fighters built by Fiat and bombers made by Breda were as modern as it goes.
As far as the armor was concerned, Fiat and Ansaldo just started production of a brand new tankette CV-33. The list of its flaws was quite long by the Italians were finding it quite satisfactory: CV-33’s were cheap and easy to produce and the quantity was expected to compensate for quality. The light tanks were in the stages of design and prototyping; none of them were adopted.
Mussolini just issued a law which provided for two years of pre-conscription military education, mandatory military training for 10 years after the end of service in the army, stay in reserve for up to 55 years, etc. Within 3-4 years this would allow to raise size of the Italian army, in the case of a mobilization, to over 1,000,000 troops.
Serbia, ruled by King Alexander I, was something of a weak link, the third least industrialized nation in Eastern Europe.
However, after mobilization its army could amount to 800,000 soldiers organised into 24 infantry, one guard, two alpine and three cavalry divisions. Mechanisation was very limited. The country's infrastructure, particularly bridges, meant that only light trucks were practical. There were a handful of vintage French FT17 tanks, supplemented by Skoda tankettes. With limited civilian mechanisation, there would have been skill shortages, even if the resources were available to do more.
Some modern weapons were purchased, primarily from Czech suppliers. These included mountain guns, howitzers, field, flak and anti-tank guns. The army was also reasonably well supplied with light machine guns and mortars. The air force had similar problems. In 1935 it could muster around 600 aircraft, mostly of French design. The main types were the Breguet 19 and Potez 25.
Three countries signed treaty of the military cooperation outlining the general interests and protocols of cooperation in the case of military operations. Created coalition nicknamed Vertical Axis (going in general North-South direction) was extremely bad news for Austria-Bohemia: if being attacked on three fronts, it simply did not have resources to stand up to its opponents who were going to have an overwhelming numeric advantage.
Government of Charles I, Emperor of Austria-Bohemia, had to act fast creating a meaningful counter-coalition….
_________
[1] I have no idea which of them came with this jewel of wisdom. Perhaps they worked on it together.
[2] Does this mean that if you have a bad army, you’ll find the bad allies?
“COALITION: in international politics is a union of two thieves who have put their hands so deep into each other's pockets that they are unable to rob the third alone.”
Ambrose Beers
“The worst thing you can do is to allow a coalition to determine what your mission is.”
Donald Rumsfeld
“A coalition is a marriage in which jealousy is stronger than love.”
Georges LeBlanc
“In domestic politics, we only risk being defeated; foreign policy can bring us to a coffin.”
John Fitzgerald Kennedy
“In politics, you can unite for a certain purpose even with the devil itself - you just need to be sure that you will cheat the devil, not devil will cheat you.”
Karl Marx and/or Friedrich Engels [1]
“He who has a good army will also find good allies.” [2]
Niccolò Machiavelli
“The hedgehog, porcupine and cactus have created a coalition of "untouchables" in wildlife.”
D. Semenikhin
“In the coalition, very often the tail tries to wag the dog.”
Amintore Fanfani
“International agreements... yes, of course, but who we are at war with is our internal business.”
Karel Čapek
Ambrose Beers
“The worst thing you can do is to allow a coalition to determine what your mission is.”
Donald Rumsfeld
“A coalition is a marriage in which jealousy is stronger than love.”
Georges LeBlanc
“In domestic politics, we only risk being defeated; foreign policy can bring us to a coffin.”
John Fitzgerald Kennedy
“In politics, you can unite for a certain purpose even with the devil itself - you just need to be sure that you will cheat the devil, not devil will cheat you.”
Karl Marx and/or Friedrich Engels [1]
“He who has a good army will also find good allies.” [2]
Niccolò Machiavelli
“The hedgehog, porcupine and cactus have created a coalition of "untouchables" in wildlife.”
D. Semenikhin
“In the coalition, very often the tail tries to wag the dog.”
Amintore Fanfani
“International agreements... yes, of course, but who we are at war with is our internal business.”
Karel Čapek
Europe after 1932.
Forming Vertical Axis
Poland. Manipulations of the so-called “Great Powers” and the internal enemies on their employment did prevent the glorious army of the 2nd Republic form achieving a well-deserved overwhelming victory in Cieszyn War stopping it just at the moment when Marshal Rydz-Smigli was ready to deliver the coup de grace to the enemy in the Battle at the Olza River. Of course, not a square meter of the territory had been lost to the enemy but the historic injustice prevailed and thousands of ethnic Poles remained under the cruel yoke of their Czech oppressors. Speaking of the yoke, thousands and thousands of the ethnic Poles still remained oppressed at the territories held by Sweden, Germany and Russia. They could not be abandoned by a mother-country and their liberation was just a matter of time and preparedness.
As far as “preparedness” was involved, the war demonstrated that, besides the unquestionable superior bravery, the movies already had been made showing heroic and successful cavalry charges on the Czech tanks and infantry, the army can benefit from having more of the tanks, guns and aviation. Preferably, domestically produced to minimize dependency upon the Perfidious France and Britain who already demonstrated their unwillingness to sacrifice their own selfish interests for the just Polish cause, which was quite absurd, taking into an account their big investments into the Polish industries (51% into mining, 65% into metallurgy, 24% into mechanical and electrical engineering, 40% into chemical industry). All of the above meant that the 2nd Republic needs more industry of its own and that it also needs the reliable allies sharing its interests.
In the first area the government, since the late 1920s had been making dedicated investments into the industrial development in the Central and Western regions and by 1932 the country was producing 1,036 thousands tons of steel. Mostly from the imported scrap iron but nonetheless. It also, thanks to the “customs war” with Germany and general protectionist policy, achieved a noticeable technological progress developing its own electrical and chemical industry (especially production of synthetic silk), the production of radio devices, the rubber industry, etc. has developed. Of course, with a shortage of the foreign loans, this meant that population would have to subsidize all these investments but this was only expected from the true patriots. Those who were false patriots or the hidden enemy’s agents would have to be dealt with harshly.
As far as the potential targets of the planned reconquests were involved, there would be of course, priorities: neither Rydz-Smigli nor Beck were insane enough to plan an attack against all of them. The first step would be to attack Austria-Bohemia and get Cieszyn and industrial area beyond it. The newly-acquired industrial potential and reparations would allow to proceed with the next step, conquest of the German Silesia and East Prussia. After this is done, Sweden will be attacked at Danzig region and Lithuania. Russia owned territories most of which had close to zero Polish population but getting back the right bank Ukraine would be a historically justified act.
In the second, diplomatic, area Beck claimed a number of the diplomatic triumphs in finding the willing members of a future coalition who had interests compatible with Polish, aka, having desire of getting the pieces of Austria-Bohemia territor: Italy wanted Trieste region and Serbia wanted the Austrian and Hungarian territories inhabited by the Serbs (which, in context, also meant Croats and Bosnians).
Italy was in the last stages of suppressing resistance in Libyan and Cyrenaica and its PM, Benito Mussolini, started getting more and more ambitious dreaming about the colonial empire rivaling those of Britain and France. In Europe, besides Austrian coastal region, he wanted Albania (why would anybody in his right senses wanted to possess it was a complete mystery) and perhaps even Greece, which would turn Adriatic into the Italian lake. Not stopping there, he was putting a lot of money into construction of a powerful modern navy that will be able not just to squash the small Austrian fleet on the Adriatic but also successfully challenge the French Mediterranean fleet thus cutting, if necessary, French route to the Suez, which, as he expected, would give him the free hand in restoring the old Italian positions on the Red Sea and subdue Ethiopia: he expected that if a risk of a serious confrontation with the unclear outcome is too big, then France may just allow a free shipping of troops and military supplies to the Italian base in Eritrea rather than go to war on behalf of Ethiopia. When this is accomplished, there could be a serious discussion of the future rearrangements in Africa but the first things first, the Austrian possessions of the Italian territory must be dealt with. Maybe Tyrol should be made Italian as well…
Anyway, Italian aviation designers had very good reputation and the fighters built by Fiat and bombers made by Breda were as modern as it goes.
As far as the armor was concerned, Fiat and Ansaldo just started production of a brand new tankette CV-33. The list of its flaws was quite long by the Italians were finding it quite satisfactory: CV-33’s were cheap and easy to produce and the quantity was expected to compensate for quality. The light tanks were in the stages of design and prototyping; none of them were adopted.
Mussolini just issued a law which provided for two years of pre-conscription military education, mandatory military training for 10 years after the end of service in the army, stay in reserve for up to 55 years, etc. Within 3-4 years this would allow to raise size of the Italian army, in the case of a mobilization, to over 1,000,000 troops.
Serbia, ruled by King Alexander I, was something of a weak link, the third least industrialized nation in Eastern Europe.
However, after mobilization its army could amount to 800,000 soldiers organised into 24 infantry, one guard, two alpine and three cavalry divisions. Mechanisation was very limited. The country's infrastructure, particularly bridges, meant that only light trucks were practical. There were a handful of vintage French FT17 tanks, supplemented by Skoda tankettes. With limited civilian mechanisation, there would have been skill shortages, even if the resources were available to do more.
Some modern weapons were purchased, primarily from Czech suppliers. These included mountain guns, howitzers, field, flak and anti-tank guns. The army was also reasonably well supplied with light machine guns and mortars. The air force had similar problems. In 1935 it could muster around 600 aircraft, mostly of French design. The main types were the Breguet 19 and Potez 25.
Three countries signed treaty of the military cooperation outlining the general interests and protocols of cooperation in the case of military operations. Created coalition nicknamed Vertical Axis (going in general North-South direction) was extremely bad news for Austria-Bohemia: if being attacked on three fronts, it simply did not have resources to stand up to its opponents who were going to have an overwhelming numeric advantage.
Government of Charles I, Emperor of Austria-Bohemia, had to act fast creating a meaningful counter-coalition….
_________
[1] I have no idea which of them came with this jewel of wisdom. Perhaps they worked on it together.
[2] Does this mean that if you have a bad army, you’ll find the bad allies?
Aw you do care!
I too fantasy about wasting money
But seriosly if you want a colonial empire so badly why dont you just buy one from the danes?
Not like he'd be the first one to pull that stunt off
*looks at Belgium's overall direction*
A weak Alex? :O
Im so disappointed
so the counter coalition is prob austria Bohemia,hungary,possibly Sweden and then another Balkan country I'm guessing
bring in the world, ooo make Britain join Italy, start world war,
--ramblings of a warhawk during the early 20th century
--ramblings of a warhawk during the early 20th century
I hope Italy invades Ethiopia again just so they'll lose even harder and lose their last remaining colony on Eastern Africa
Italy doesn't want Greenland. You can't grow olives there! It's like Scotland, which Italians also passed on in the Roman Era, except ten times worse.Hey I told them to buy a colony to avoid all that humiliation
Nevermind that my suggestion was Greenland
If stories from my youth are to be believed, they will even grow in your stomach
my experiments prove inconclusive
Poland's going on a wild ride and will take decades of peace (excluding the colonies and internal conflict) with on the continent with it.
That said who knows maybe Polish courage might actually save them? Certainly it's going to draw a coalition against them but not sure anyone wants to with the headache of annexing or occupying Poland for long.
That said who knows maybe Polish courage might actually save them? Certainly it's going to draw a coalition against them but not sure anyone wants to with the headache of annexing or occupying Poland for long.
Time of the coalitions #2
453. Time of the coalitions #2
Europe after creation of the Vertical Axis
Austria-Bohemia was facing a clear and present danger of a dismemberment due to the fact that so far it was relying too much upon its declared neutrality status. The last war already demonstrated that it does not count for too much and now the empire was surrounded on three sides with the enemies having too a numeric advantage too big for a successful defense. Situation was mind-boggling but the Emperor Charles I was cheerfully assured by his Czech and Austrian governments that, while being catastrophic, it is not serious.
Actually, with a little bit of an effort, it can be changed to everybody’s benefit. You only have to make the right contacts. Of course, the whole thing was quite complicated.
Hungary. The most obvious one was, of course, Hungary. In the case of a big mess it was risking the Serbian attack with the Polish help and, perhaps, Italian as well. While the local Serbs enjoyed the much better life conditions than those on the other side of a border, who could guarantee their loyalty? Of course, Hungary did not have a very strong army but it did not have to because of its mutual defense treaty with the Russian Empire. Similar treaty with Rumania was pretty much excluding Rumania from joining the Axis against Hungary even if temptation of acquiring Transylvania could be big: besides treaty with Hungary, Rumania had a defense treaty with Russia, which should secure it from a potential Bulgarian attack, so by joining the Axis Rumania would be violating two treaties and while one with Hungary may be shrugged off the other could have the catastrophic consequences. So the task was two-fold: 1st to get Hungary’s agreement for the alliance with AB and 2nd for Hungary to get the Russian agreement to such an alliance and, in the best case scenario, to get the Russian agreement for extension the defense treaty to AB. This would take some negotiation because as a result Russian Empire was going to deviate from its course of staying out of the European affairs as much as possible. But there were certain argument which could be persuasive.
German Empire. The second contact was Germany. The Polish plans to return “the lost lands” were widely announced and not only Emperor Wilhelm III but the public opinion in German Empire switched from “minding our own business” to a more aggressive mood with the resulting approval of the big rearmament programs both for the Army and Navy. In the terms of the military production this meant little to no change: simply Krupp and other arms manufacturers cut their exports and started selling more “products” to their own army, which already had the needed infrastructure with the trained reserves and just had to beef up the existing “skeleton” units to their prescribed sizes. Considerable amounts of all types of equipment had been accumulated and stored and it would take at most couple months to add two hundreds of the most recent tank models to the accumulated arsenal but even without these additions the tank force was bigger, heavier and better organized than what army of the 2nd Republic had in its disposal. Aviation, unlike the land force, always was kept at its full planned size. There has to be some additional training on the big units’ level but in general Germany was going to be ready for a major war within few months.
The old military commanding cadres had been ready and willing to play the new game and the most energetic ones declared that a victorious war with Poland can be started within few weeks, as soon as the reservists called to duty will refresh their experience with the tanks and planes, or even prior to this.
However, this was just a part of a whole picture and the key factor was Italy. Of course, on the land it did not present any challenge both by its anticipated quality and by the geographic reasons but its proclaimed Mediterranean policies were a serious concern to Germany because if Italy substitutes France (French ally) as a major regional naval power, this would hurt German communications with the colonies in Africa and Barmalei War demonstrated how situation there could develop without a reliable communication line. Italy already had a considerable experienced military force in Libya and kept recruiting the new Askari units in Eritrea.
Obviously, Germany did not have the naval bases on the Med and had to rely upon allied France protecting its own and German interests and, if necessary, providing temporary bases to the German navy in its ports.
French Empire. The Italian bragging had been heard loud and clear thus forcing the French Empire to change the socialist government to the nationalistic one and shift from its peaceful agenda to a more aggressive buildup of its Navy and strengthening military presence in Algeria, Tunis and Egypt. Of course, Britain confirmed its neutral status but temptation could be great enough to side with the Axis in an attempt to return some of the lost African colonies and protectorates on the coast of the Arabian Peninsula so it would be better to prevent a temptation generating scenario. And for this France needed to have an absolute naval advantage on the Med.
In addition to two battleships of the Richelieu class (37,800 tons, 32 kn, 8 380 mm guns, main belt 330 mm)
which were a rather questionable answer to the Italian Livorno class (41,000 tons, 30 kn, 9 381mm guns, main belt 350mm, deck 162 mm), of which three ships were in the various stages of construction, the French decided to build the bigger ones.
Designers proposed three versions of the project. The most powerful design specified a battleship (46,000 tons, a speed of 32 knots, 12 380mm guns in quadruple main turrets, main belt 350 mm, deck 170 - 180 mm). It was suggested that future battleships be named after the following French provinces: Alsace, Normandie, Flandre, Bourgogne. The first two already had been on the last stages of construction. Strictly speaking, the main caliber of Livorno had an advantage of the main French guns (42.26 km vs 41.7 km) but this was a pure theory because practical extreme range was approximately 27km. Addition of a meaningful German squadron would guarantee the dominance on the Med.
The French Navy only contemplated construction of a carrier and in a meantime relied upon support of the land based aviation located in Southern France, Corsica, Algeria, Tunis, Egypt and Malta.
France was the second largest tank producer in the world, behind the Russian Empire and, after subtracting the exports, had over 4,000 modern tanks of all types in France and its colonies. True, most of them were on a lighter side but there were also numerous mid-sized tanks with 37 and 45mm guns. In the terms of the tanks and general mechanization France was well ahead of Italy and in Aviation it was more than even, plus it had a much better access to the oil sources for as long as it was controlling Med and Suez.
The Austrian alliance proposal was met with an enthusiasm because it will force Italy to fight on two fronts in Europe while in Africa it was going to be squeezed between the French forces in Algeria-Tunis on the West and Egypt on the East with a possibility to get contingents from the German East Africa and perhaps Ethiopians as well, to deal with Italian Eritrea, the main source of the Italian colonial troops.
Sweden was, of course, on board because such an alliance, even in the worst case scenario, was providing a great chance to preserve its possessions on the Eastern coast of the Baltic Sea. Of course, more than two centuries old alliance with Russian Empire should be enough of a guarantee but if German Empire will be added to the picture then the Poles would not probably even have a chance to do any harm to the Eastern Provinces.
Russian Empire (also known as Emperor Alexey III 😂) was facing a dilemma. On one hand, policy of the last few decades was to concentrate on the Eastern direction but, OTOH, the empire could not avoid protecting its Swedish and Hungarian allies and allowing the Axis to destroy AB would, as a minimum, create a serious disturbance in the Central Europe and, in worst case scenario may spread beyond European territory causing all types of the problems the most obvious of which could be disruption of the communications through the Med, which, even with the Panama Canal being open, will cause certain inconveniences in communications with the Russian Pacific.
The Emperor had been assured by all who mattered that, in the worst case scenario the military resources of the Russian Empire will allow to secure its Far East while a part of its army will be explaining, once more, to its neighbor on the West that it should stay nice, quiet and unambitious.
The Domestic Almost Military Genius, who was eager to test his warfare theories in practice, declared that, if s—t happens it will present a wonderful opportunity to get a real military exercise in a theater which does not require moving half a million (or better the full million) troops over thousands kilometers because pretty much everything needed is already available in the western and central military districts. The statement had been fully supported by the top brass of the General Staff and the districts commanders. The most eager ones even proposed to start right now not waiting for the enemy making the first move.
Then, there was a tiny and rather silly issue called “Respublica Septinsularis”.
Created in 1800, it was the joined Russian-Ottoman protectorate and now, with the Ottoman Empire nonexistent and Republic of Turkey not interested, just the Russian protectorate. Russia maintained a token naval base on the Corfu but from its perspective the whole thing did not have any strategic or economic value due to an absence of interests on the Adriatic and Ionic seas. Not that somebody else was too eager to get this territory. However, in the last few years situation changed. For Italy possession of these islands would allow to choke Austrian access to the Med even without destruction of its navy and there were no sympathies in St-Petersburg to Il Duche’s grandiose ideas, especially taking into an account that a part of the Axis’ plans was attack on Hungary, which would be easier if Italy gets a naval and land control of the Adriatic. But committing a major naval force to protecting the islands did not make sense because Russia did not have serious naval bases anywhere close and the big ships placed there will be the sitting ducks for the Italian aviation, not to mention that short of the presence of a big part of the Black Sea Fleet, the Russian squadron would be outgunned and either forced to a humiliating withdrawal or would risk suffering serious damages. But just saying “good bye” and leaving also would not look decent.
Now, Italy wanted these islands both by the strategic considerations and, based upon their past, as a part of the Venetian legacy, which was important for a domestic consumption. OTOH, Greece also wanted them because population was overwhelmingly Greek and there was always certain pro-Greece sentiment restricted mostly by almost permanent turmoil into which Greece was involved either domestically or internationally. Russian relations with Greece were not too warm since the times of the OE but now, with the Greek relations with Republic of Turkey had been patched, King George II bought back by a recent referendum and Italian plans regarding the Balkans being well-known, there was a clear opportunity to improve the relations and, in a process, to get a solid operational platform in the case of a war. King George was presented with a great opportunity to improve his image by adding a valuable possession to his kingdom. The trilateral treaty (Greece - the Republic - RE) granted the former republic a wide autonomy, the Russian naval base was transferred to Greece in a solemn ceremony (for a small compensation) and a separate agreement regarding the naval and military cooperation had been discretely signed.
With this question being settled, Hungary and Swedn got notifications that existing defense treaty should not be an obstacle to signing the new treaties of the same nature with a provision that they will not contradict to the existing treaties, which will have a higher priority. On its side, the RE will be ready to fulfill its existing obligation to a full extent warranted by the circumstances. The courts in Berlin and Paris, being informed about this arrangement, signed the formal defensive treaties with AB and Sweden thus creating a Horizontal Axis or, because the Vertical Axis was officially known as Tripple Coalition, they were often unofficially referenced just as Opposition because the official name of that rather cumbersome arrangement of the direct and indirect affiliations, the United Nations usually was producing a hysterical laugh.
________
[1] What such a person could understand in the subject is a complete enigma (not the Enigma, but it is also enigma to me). However, someone put this statement on the list of quote together with those from other people about whom I never heard and it has a definite merits of being short and seemingly meaning something (correct or not), which is more than can be said about the rest of the quotes on that site. 😂
“Peace, commerce, and honest friendship with all nations...entangling alliances with none”
Thomas Jefferson
“There are no permanent alliances, only permanent interests.”
Palmerston
“Now the only sure basis of an alliance is for each party to be equally afraid of the other”
Thucydides
“The hardest thing is to start acting, everything else depends only on perseverance.”
Amelia Earhart
“The monarchical idea, in its essence, is a democratic idea, and it is not afraid of republican aspirations.”
S. V. Zubatov
“Any alliance whose purpose is not the intention to wage war is senseless and useless.”
Obscure Austrian painter with unpronounceable name [1]
“What do you call a group of people smoking weed? A Joint Coalition.”
“Uber teams up with Lyft to fight ride-sharing restrictions in Germany. Deutschland Uber allies was probably a bad choice for the name of the coalition.”
Unknown jokers
“-Did he just call you a bunny? - It is complicated.”
‘RED’
Thomas Jefferson
“There are no permanent alliances, only permanent interests.”
Palmerston
“Now the only sure basis of an alliance is for each party to be equally afraid of the other”
Thucydides
“The hardest thing is to start acting, everything else depends only on perseverance.”
Amelia Earhart
“The monarchical idea, in its essence, is a democratic idea, and it is not afraid of republican aspirations.”
S. V. Zubatov
“Any alliance whose purpose is not the intention to wage war is senseless and useless.”
Obscure Austrian painter with unpronounceable name [1]
“What do you call a group of people smoking weed? A Joint Coalition.”
“Uber teams up with Lyft to fight ride-sharing restrictions in Germany. Deutschland Uber allies was probably a bad choice for the name of the coalition.”
Unknown jokers
“-Did he just call you a bunny? - It is complicated.”
‘RED’
Europe after creation of the Vertical Axis
Austria-Bohemia was facing a clear and present danger of a dismemberment due to the fact that so far it was relying too much upon its declared neutrality status. The last war already demonstrated that it does not count for too much and now the empire was surrounded on three sides with the enemies having too a numeric advantage too big for a successful defense. Situation was mind-boggling but the Emperor Charles I was cheerfully assured by his Czech and Austrian governments that, while being catastrophic, it is not serious.
Actually, with a little bit of an effort, it can be changed to everybody’s benefit. You only have to make the right contacts. Of course, the whole thing was quite complicated.
Hungary. The most obvious one was, of course, Hungary. In the case of a big mess it was risking the Serbian attack with the Polish help and, perhaps, Italian as well. While the local Serbs enjoyed the much better life conditions than those on the other side of a border, who could guarantee their loyalty? Of course, Hungary did not have a very strong army but it did not have to because of its mutual defense treaty with the Russian Empire. Similar treaty with Rumania was pretty much excluding Rumania from joining the Axis against Hungary even if temptation of acquiring Transylvania could be big: besides treaty with Hungary, Rumania had a defense treaty with Russia, which should secure it from a potential Bulgarian attack, so by joining the Axis Rumania would be violating two treaties and while one with Hungary may be shrugged off the other could have the catastrophic consequences. So the task was two-fold: 1st to get Hungary’s agreement for the alliance with AB and 2nd for Hungary to get the Russian agreement to such an alliance and, in the best case scenario, to get the Russian agreement for extension the defense treaty to AB. This would take some negotiation because as a result Russian Empire was going to deviate from its course of staying out of the European affairs as much as possible. But there were certain argument which could be persuasive.
German Empire. The second contact was Germany. The Polish plans to return “the lost lands” were widely announced and not only Emperor Wilhelm III but the public opinion in German Empire switched from “minding our own business” to a more aggressive mood with the resulting approval of the big rearmament programs both for the Army and Navy. In the terms of the military production this meant little to no change: simply Krupp and other arms manufacturers cut their exports and started selling more “products” to their own army, which already had the needed infrastructure with the trained reserves and just had to beef up the existing “skeleton” units to their prescribed sizes. Considerable amounts of all types of equipment had been accumulated and stored and it would take at most couple months to add two hundreds of the most recent tank models to the accumulated arsenal but even without these additions the tank force was bigger, heavier and better organized than what army of the 2nd Republic had in its disposal. Aviation, unlike the land force, always was kept at its full planned size. There has to be some additional training on the big units’ level but in general Germany was going to be ready for a major war within few months.
The old military commanding cadres had been ready and willing to play the new game and the most energetic ones declared that a victorious war with Poland can be started within few weeks, as soon as the reservists called to duty will refresh their experience with the tanks and planes, or even prior to this.
However, this was just a part of a whole picture and the key factor was Italy. Of course, on the land it did not present any challenge both by its anticipated quality and by the geographic reasons but its proclaimed Mediterranean policies were a serious concern to Germany because if Italy substitutes France (French ally) as a major regional naval power, this would hurt German communications with the colonies in Africa and Barmalei War demonstrated how situation there could develop without a reliable communication line. Italy already had a considerable experienced military force in Libya and kept recruiting the new Askari units in Eritrea.
Obviously, Germany did not have the naval bases on the Med and had to rely upon allied France protecting its own and German interests and, if necessary, providing temporary bases to the German navy in its ports.
French Empire. The Italian bragging had been heard loud and clear thus forcing the French Empire to change the socialist government to the nationalistic one and shift from its peaceful agenda to a more aggressive buildup of its Navy and strengthening military presence in Algeria, Tunis and Egypt. Of course, Britain confirmed its neutral status but temptation could be great enough to side with the Axis in an attempt to return some of the lost African colonies and protectorates on the coast of the Arabian Peninsula so it would be better to prevent a temptation generating scenario. And for this France needed to have an absolute naval advantage on the Med.
In addition to two battleships of the Richelieu class (37,800 tons, 32 kn, 8 380 mm guns, main belt 330 mm)
which were a rather questionable answer to the Italian Livorno class (41,000 tons, 30 kn, 9 381mm guns, main belt 350mm, deck 162 mm), of which three ships were in the various stages of construction, the French decided to build the bigger ones.
Designers proposed three versions of the project. The most powerful design specified a battleship (46,000 tons, a speed of 32 knots, 12 380mm guns in quadruple main turrets, main belt 350 mm, deck 170 - 180 mm). It was suggested that future battleships be named after the following French provinces: Alsace, Normandie, Flandre, Bourgogne. The first two already had been on the last stages of construction. Strictly speaking, the main caliber of Livorno had an advantage of the main French guns (42.26 km vs 41.7 km) but this was a pure theory because practical extreme range was approximately 27km. Addition of a meaningful German squadron would guarantee the dominance on the Med.
The French Navy only contemplated construction of a carrier and in a meantime relied upon support of the land based aviation located in Southern France, Corsica, Algeria, Tunis, Egypt and Malta.
France was the second largest tank producer in the world, behind the Russian Empire and, after subtracting the exports, had over 4,000 modern tanks of all types in France and its colonies. True, most of them were on a lighter side but there were also numerous mid-sized tanks with 37 and 45mm guns. In the terms of the tanks and general mechanization France was well ahead of Italy and in Aviation it was more than even, plus it had a much better access to the oil sources for as long as it was controlling Med and Suez.
The Austrian alliance proposal was met with an enthusiasm because it will force Italy to fight on two fronts in Europe while in Africa it was going to be squeezed between the French forces in Algeria-Tunis on the West and Egypt on the East with a possibility to get contingents from the German East Africa and perhaps Ethiopians as well, to deal with Italian Eritrea, the main source of the Italian colonial troops.
Sweden was, of course, on board because such an alliance, even in the worst case scenario, was providing a great chance to preserve its possessions on the Eastern coast of the Baltic Sea. Of course, more than two centuries old alliance with Russian Empire should be enough of a guarantee but if German Empire will be added to the picture then the Poles would not probably even have a chance to do any harm to the Eastern Provinces.
Russian Empire (also known as Emperor Alexey III 😂) was facing a dilemma. On one hand, policy of the last few decades was to concentrate on the Eastern direction but, OTOH, the empire could not avoid protecting its Swedish and Hungarian allies and allowing the Axis to destroy AB would, as a minimum, create a serious disturbance in the Central Europe and, in worst case scenario may spread beyond European territory causing all types of the problems the most obvious of which could be disruption of the communications through the Med, which, even with the Panama Canal being open, will cause certain inconveniences in communications with the Russian Pacific.
The Emperor had been assured by all who mattered that, in the worst case scenario the military resources of the Russian Empire will allow to secure its Far East while a part of its army will be explaining, once more, to its neighbor on the West that it should stay nice, quiet and unambitious.
The Domestic Almost Military Genius, who was eager to test his warfare theories in practice, declared that, if s—t happens it will present a wonderful opportunity to get a real military exercise in a theater which does not require moving half a million (or better the full million) troops over thousands kilometers because pretty much everything needed is already available in the western and central military districts. The statement had been fully supported by the top brass of the General Staff and the districts commanders. The most eager ones even proposed to start right now not waiting for the enemy making the first move.
Then, there was a tiny and rather silly issue called “Respublica Septinsularis”.
Created in 1800, it was the joined Russian-Ottoman protectorate and now, with the Ottoman Empire nonexistent and Republic of Turkey not interested, just the Russian protectorate. Russia maintained a token naval base on the Corfu but from its perspective the whole thing did not have any strategic or economic value due to an absence of interests on the Adriatic and Ionic seas. Not that somebody else was too eager to get this territory. However, in the last few years situation changed. For Italy possession of these islands would allow to choke Austrian access to the Med even without destruction of its navy and there were no sympathies in St-Petersburg to Il Duche’s grandiose ideas, especially taking into an account that a part of the Axis’ plans was attack on Hungary, which would be easier if Italy gets a naval and land control of the Adriatic. But committing a major naval force to protecting the islands did not make sense because Russia did not have serious naval bases anywhere close and the big ships placed there will be the sitting ducks for the Italian aviation, not to mention that short of the presence of a big part of the Black Sea Fleet, the Russian squadron would be outgunned and either forced to a humiliating withdrawal or would risk suffering serious damages. But just saying “good bye” and leaving also would not look decent.
Now, Italy wanted these islands both by the strategic considerations and, based upon their past, as a part of the Venetian legacy, which was important for a domestic consumption. OTOH, Greece also wanted them because population was overwhelmingly Greek and there was always certain pro-Greece sentiment restricted mostly by almost permanent turmoil into which Greece was involved either domestically or internationally. Russian relations with Greece were not too warm since the times of the OE but now, with the Greek relations with Republic of Turkey had been patched, King George II bought back by a recent referendum and Italian plans regarding the Balkans being well-known, there was a clear opportunity to improve the relations and, in a process, to get a solid operational platform in the case of a war. King George was presented with a great opportunity to improve his image by adding a valuable possession to his kingdom. The trilateral treaty (Greece - the Republic - RE) granted the former republic a wide autonomy, the Russian naval base was transferred to Greece in a solemn ceremony (for a small compensation) and a separate agreement regarding the naval and military cooperation had been discretely signed.
With this question being settled, Hungary and Swedn got notifications that existing defense treaty should not be an obstacle to signing the new treaties of the same nature with a provision that they will not contradict to the existing treaties, which will have a higher priority. On its side, the RE will be ready to fulfill its existing obligation to a full extent warranted by the circumstances. The courts in Berlin and Paris, being informed about this arrangement, signed the formal defensive treaties with AB and Sweden thus creating a Horizontal Axis or, because the Vertical Axis was officially known as Tripple Coalition, they were often unofficially referenced just as Opposition because the official name of that rather cumbersome arrangement of the direct and indirect affiliations, the United Nations usually was producing a hysterical laugh.
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[1] What such a person could understand in the subject is a complete enigma (not the Enigma, but it is also enigma to me). However, someone put this statement on the list of quote together with those from other people about whom I never heard and it has a definite merits of being short and seemingly meaning something (correct or not), which is more than can be said about the rest of the quotes on that site. 😂