No GNW (or “Peter goes South”)

Trouble in Asia?
102. Trouble in Asia?

You, guys, see a problem, I see a potential”
My Blue Heaven

«Плоха была услуга,
А дети, видя то,
Давай тузить друг друга:
Кто как и чем во что!
»
А.К. Толстой «История государства Российского…» [1]

The expansion of the empire is the only way to prevent stagnation.”
R. Murdoch


1745. “Galdan Tseren died”. This message brought to Moscow meant a lot because priority immediately shifted to the “Asiatic theater”. Quite a few things had to be done to keep situation under control.

While Galdan Tseren was alive, the appearances of the suzerain-vassal relations had to be carefully preserved with the Russian administrative and military presence had been carefully weighted not to interfere excessively with the native Dzungar administration and being able to rely upon a whole-hearted support of the Khan in the case of war.

Intermission. The Khanate was, indeed, a nomadic state but this does not mean that it did not have an administrative apparatus. In general, the system of officials in the Dzungarian Khanate looked like this:
  • Tushimel - Solving general political issues of Khanate management;
  • Zarguchi - Judicial functions;
  • Demotsi - Management of taisha courtyards, collection of taxes from dependent territories, reception of ambassadors and diplomatic negotiations;
  • Demotsi assistants - Distribution of duties and tax collection;
  • Albachi-zaisan - Collection of taxes from the dzungar;
  • Albanians - Assistants of Albanians-zaisans;
  • Kutuchiner - Management of territories dependent on the Dzungarian Khanate;
  • Ulut - Head of blacksmithing and foundry;
  • Buchiner - Head of muskets and cannons;
  • Bunchin - Head of cannons;
  • Altachin - Management of the production of religious objects and gold mining, its storage;
  • Zakhchin - Border protection.
Thanks to the assistance of Russian and Central Asian masters, Dzungaria established its own production of the matchlock muskets [2] and ammunition. A serious contribution to the development of Dzungarian artillery was made by Johan Gustaf Renat, a Swede who, as a member of Buchgoltz expedition, found himself in Dzungarian captivity and even after release served to the khans . Thousands of local and foreign craftsmen and ordinary nomads worked in large production weapons centers. As a result, firearms have become widespread even among ordinary Dzungarian soldiers.
The Dzungarian army of the late XVII - early XVIII centuries consisted of the military bands of huntaji and Oirat feudal lords, people's militia, squads of vasals and allies of the khanate. All Oirats, except for children, decrepit old people and lamas, were considered liable for military service and conscription. When the enemy approach was teported, all men to be drafted had to immediately arrive at the headquarters of the local feudal owner. Thanks to the relatively compact settlement of most of the Oirats, the Dzungarian rulers managed to mobilize the necessary number of soldiers quite quickly. According to Russian diplomats, the maximum number of the Dzungarian army in the first third of the XVIII century reached 100,000 people.


Death of Galdan Tseren, in an absence of any succession laws, left his three sons, Lama Dorji, Tsewang Dorji Namjal and Tsewang Dashi competing for the throne. Well, strictly speaking, he had designated his second son Tsewang Dorji Namjal to succeed him (his eldest son was from Khoit wife) but this meant little.

Plus, there was son of his daughter, Amursana, who also had some ideas on that account even if his mother was married to a Khoit prince which was making him inferior to a true Dzungar.
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And there also was a top aristocrat Dawachi who claimed the throne by a right of his illustrious lineage going back directly to Erdeni Batur (died 1635), the founder of the Dzungar Khanate.
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Taking into an account that the sons pf late Khan also hated each other, situation in Dzungaria was ready to deteriorate into a major bloody (literally) mess and this was the last thing that the Russian Empire needed. Fortunately (from the Russia perspective, because each of the contenders may not see it this way 😂), the governor-general of the Eastern Siberia and Turkestan was a no-nonsense person and his earlier experience with the Bashkir revolt was not encouraging for those who would want to oppose him. Even before the instructions came from Moscow, he had troops in the Khanate itself, Kasghar and Eastern Siberia mobilized and on the move, which immediately discouraged most of the local feudals from assembling their bands and sticking the necks by supporting a potentially wrong candidate.

However, the Russian troops did not move fast enough to prevent Lama Dorji from making his own move: he conspired with the husband of his sister Ulam Bayar, the Baghatur Sayin Bolek and other saisans or high officials, to kill Tsewang Dorji Namjal while he was on a hunting trip. During an abortive attack on the plotters, Tsewang Dorji Namjal was captured and blinded then sent as a prisoner to Aqsu along with his brother, Tsewang Dashi.
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This, in theory, made Lama Dorji a ruling khan and he was quite sure that the Russians will confirm him in this capacity. But upon arrival to Gulja he was immediately arrested together with the co-conspirators. The lesser figures, after a short trial, were found guilty of a high treason and had been hanged while Lama Dorji was sent to Irkutsk and placed into a prison to wait for the instructions from Moscow. Unfortunately, this did not help to his brothers who “mysteriously” died on their way to Aqsu.

Count Alexander Rumyantsev was left to deal with two lesser figures. Dabachi with 7,000 troops took refuge in a fortification near Lake Khashin, where he was attacked and retreated to the Kazakh border. From there, Dabachi with the shrinking number of followers fought his way to the Altai Mountains, then turned to Kashgaria, where he was captured in Kucha, handed over to the Russian command and also ended up in Irkutsk prison.

Amursana was defeated and fled through Teletskoye Lake, Kobdo and Ulang to Khalkha with 5,000 followers. He was invited to Peking and He awarded a conversation with Bogdykhn Qianlun. Russian request to deliver it as a rebel as per Urga Treaty was ignored, which did not bode well for the future relations with Qing.

In a meantime, the major reforms had been conducted in the Khanate. Dzungaria was declared a part of the Russian Empire with the Emperor adding one more title to his already long list of the possessions. Governor-general was promoted into vice-roy (наместник) in a full control of the territory. The former Khanate was divided into the “uezds” but its administrative structure had been incorporated into the Russian imperial bureaucracy as a “special case”. It was expected that gradually the local bureaucrats (probably those of the next generation) would learn Russian and adopt the Russian laws to the local specifics. Few schools had been open for this purpose to teach the Russian language, the laws, geography, etc. (but not religion).

The local feudals preserved most of their power but a military system changed. Already created regular troops under the Russian command had been expanded on a volunteer basis (for a while) and the numbers of the males called to military service in the case of a military emergency were scaled down by providing the feudal leaders with the relatively modest quotas.

To increase popularity of the new administration among the locals, the taxes paid by the Oirats had been significantly lowered while the local feudals had been added to the list of the Russian nobility, which made them tax-exempt.

As a rather nasty but efficient way of endearing the tribal leaders to the Russian rule, an abundant supply of the hard liquor was made available to the “upper classes” (the flavored vodkas proved to be most popular): having the quarrelsome high-born imbeciles in a semi-drunken state made “civilizing mission” much easier. 😉

The weapons production had been placed under the Russian control with its nomenclature now being upgraded to the modern weaponry: different status meant different attitudes.




______________
[1] “The idea was bad,
And the children, seeing that
Started kicking each other
In all ways possible!”
A.K. Tolstoy “History of the Russian state…”
[2] The Dzungars had to be on the equal terms with the Qing army but not the Russian one (😉).
[3] In OTL captured at Poltava but the rest is true. With the direct participation of Renat, artillery, weapons and mining plants were built in the Khanate and in a recognition of his services he was released from the captivity but remained in the khanate for few more years and later returned to Stockholm (seemingly, as a rich man).
 
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Well here is my idea painted on the map regarding the partition, map is not correct due to PLC being smaller in this TL but these are ideas on who gets what.

Green is Russia, Orange is Sweden and Pink is what is left of PLC.

View attachment 731268
Aren’t you a little bit too generous to Prussia? Maybe just West Prussia and Warmia would be enough?

Austrian share looks as a great idea but how about leaving Eastern Galicia to the PLC? After all, the area is thoroughly polonized and Ukrainian population are predominantly the Uniate. Or, perhaps, not it but Volynia: after all the Eastern Galicia is more valuable economically (IIRC).
Belarus is, of course, a low value acquisition but its Orthodox population under the Catholic rule would be a never-ending source of complaints to Russian monarchs.
 
Imo (and with the benefit of hindsight), it is not in Russia’s interest to give Prussia Danzig. Long-term an aggressive and expansionary German state, even if Germany is not united, is a lot scarier than Sweden purely due to demographics. Prussia has a lot more room to grow in terms of strength than Sweden. Another Baltic exclave for Sweden only ties them even more to the Baltic League/Russian alliance. Trying to placate Prussia doesn’t make sense when they have already shown themselves to be unpredictable and land hungry. Better to keep Prussia a bit weaker and more biddable rather than feeding them land hoping they will be a good ally. Whereas Sweden is at this point basically a satiated power. They might grab a bit more Baltic coastline but they already have a lot of land to hold.
Good points. You got me convinced.
 
Aren’t you a little bit too generous to Prussia? Maybe just West Prussia and Warmia would be enough?

Austrian share looks as a great idea but how about leaving Eastern Galicia to the PLC? After all, the area is thoroughly polonized and Ukrainian population are predominantly the Uniate. Or, perhaps, not it but Volynia: after all the Eastern Galicia is more valuable economically (IIRC).
Belarus is, of course, a low value acquisition but its Orthodox population under the Catholic rule would be a never-ending source of complaints to Russian monarchs.

I thought to give Prussia a little more due to Danzing going to Sweden and Russia getting Eastern Galicia and Volynia. Otherwise im for leaving Eastern Galicia to Poland , maybe even Volynia as Russian goals of taking all Ukraine and Belarus are pretty much fulfilled without them, so theres no need for diplomatic outreach. Better to leave those lands in Poland to serve as a buffer.

Basically Russia gets Belarus and rest of Ukraine as planned (Dark Green territories already belong to Russia),
Sweden gets Danzing and Samogitia ( Courtland, Polish Livonia and Elbig are already Swedish),
Prissia gets West Prussia and lands lost in BFW to Lithunia.
Austria gets West Galicia and in between is sizable Polish state to still serve as a buffer.
drawing.svg
 
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Eastern Galicia would be the actual prize here for Russia, otherwise they are just getting a bunch of poor lands.
Indeed. The 1st Partition in OTL, besides the fact that it was forced upon CII, more or less solved an issue of the Orthodox population of the PLC and never-ending complaints about its oppression, which was a major item in the Russian-PLC relations. Other than that the acquisition was pretty much useless. Well, as was demonstrated in 1812 (and during wwi), it had been added certain strategic depth but I doubt that this was even considered as a factor in the XVIII century.
 
I thought to give Prussia a little more due to Danzing going to Sweden and Russia getting Eastern Galicia and Volynia. Otherwise im for leaving Eastern Galicia to Poland , maybe even Volynia as Russian goals of taking all Ukraine and Belarus are pretty much fulfilled without them, so theres no need for diplomatic outreach. Better to leave those lands in Poland to serve as a buffer.

Basically Russia gets Belarus and rest of Ukraine as planned (Dark Green territories already belong to Russia),
Sweden gets Danzing and Samogitia ( Courtland, Polish Livonia and Elbig are already Swedish),
Prissia gets West Prussia and lands lost in BFW to Lithunia.
Austria gets West Galicia and in between is sizable Polish state to still serve as a buffer.
View attachment 731539
Makes sense. Of course, AFAIK, Samogitia was of a very low economic value and so was Belorussia. So Sweden is getting Danzig as a valuable item. Prussia is getting small but valuanle (strategically and economically) territory, Austria is getting a valuable piece. And Russia is getting a big piece of nothing. I’d add Eastern Galicia which is valuable both economically and strategically: it cuts PLC off the Ottomans thus eliminating “ideas” on both sides. To think about it, border with Austria may eliminate some Hapsburg “ideas” as well.
 
Aren’t you a little bit too generous to Prussia? Maybe just West Prussia and Warmia would be enough?

Austrian share looks as a great idea but how about leaving Eastern Galicia to the PLC? After all, the area is thoroughly polonized and Ukrainian population are predominantly the Uniate. Or, perhaps, not it but Volynia: after all the Eastern Galicia is more valuable economically (IIRC).
Belarus is, of course, a low value acquisition but its Orthodox population under the Catholic rule would be a never-ending source of complaints to Russian monarchs.

Eastern Galicia need to go to Austria as the mountains makes access to the region impossible elsewhere, it was why the Austrians had to buy Bukowina from the Moldavians. As for Prussia West Prussia and Warmia is enough. I would also push the Swedish border a little south, so that Vilnius and Kaunas are included, in fact I would split the Grand Duchy of Lithuania along religious line with Sweden getting the Catholic part and Russia the Orthodox part (modern Lithuania to Sweden and modern Belarus to Russia) While I would place the Russian border at the Curzon line (except in Galicia). This would leave a rump Poland more or less having the borders of Grand Duchy of Warsaw. This would create a viable buffer state, big enough to not just be overrun and small enough to not be a potential threat to any of its neighbors beside Prussia.
 
Eastern Galicia need to go to Austria as the mountains makes access to the region impossible elsewhere, it was why the Austrians had to buy Bukowina from the Moldavians. As for Prussia West Prussia and Warmia is enough. I would also push the Swedish border a little south, so that Vilnius and Kaunas are included, in fact I would split the Grand Duchy of Lithuania along religious line with Sweden getting the Catholic part and Russia the Orthodox part (modern Lithuania to Sweden and modern Belarus to Russia) While I would place the Russian border at the Curzon line (except in Galicia). This would leave a rump Poland more or less having the borders of Grand Duchy of Warsaw. This would create a viable buffer state, big enough to not just be overrun and small enough to not be a potential threat to any of its neighbors beside Prussia.

So something along these lines.
drawing.svg
 
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So something along these lines.
View attachment 731593

Yes you can expand Lithuania a little, but it’s not necessary. In general this map will result in relative few conflicting borders for Russia and Austria. The main place you can see a potential conflict is between Sweden, Prussia and Poland over West Prussia/Danzig, but the three power structure of the region means that any conflict will alway end with two defenders against one aggressor and Sweden will always be a defender. This mean this is a rather stable system with everyone having a interest in upkeep status quo.
 
Irreconcilable differences
103. Irreconcilable differences

“The world is not created for the smart. It is designed for the stubborn and stubborn who do not keep more than one thought in mind at the same time.
Mary Rinehart
Stubbornness is a weakness that has the form of force; it comes from a violation of balance in the union of will with reason.”
Zhukovsky
I don't have megalomania. Great people don't suffer from it.
Yankovsky

Very early in his reign Qianlong Emperor formulated his vision of the Qing Empire as following: "there exists a view of China according to which non-Han people cannot become China's subjects and their land cannot be integrated into the territory of China. This does not represent our dynasty's understanding of China, but is instead that of the earlier Han, Tang, Song, and Ming dynasties." Of course, this was a statement of the principle and, as such a theoretical view of the policy. In its practical implementation the stress had to be upon the “territory” rather than the “subjects”: the territory could be cleaned of its indigenous population and repopulated with the Qing subjects who, indeed, could be of a various ethnic background (Manchu, Solons, Uighurs, etc.).

After Qianlong dealt with his own Miao subjects, Dzungaria was the 1st item on his list because it was going to provide a launching pad to the conquest of much more profitable Kashgar. The Treaty of Urga meant little: who cares about the promises his father was willing to give to the insignificant vassal state like Russia?

A prolonged bloody fight over the Dzungarian throne, which Qianlong was discretely trying to encourage, did not happen. The whole affair was, indeed, bloody: the heads of few dozens high-ranking “rebels” had been displayed on the pikes in Gulja’s market square and Baghatur Sayin Bolek, as a leader of the plot, got a questionable privilege of being hung by the ribs on the same square [1]. Ulam Bayar was, allegedly, quietly strangled (at least she was not seen or heard about). There were much more numerous “punishments” of the rebels’ followers and family members but the whole thing took only few months instead of the expected years. Confiscated property most probably included tens thousands taels which Qianlong sent to keep the fighting going. Most probably, captured Lama Dorji and Dawachi already spilled the beans regarding the Qing involvement and at least some of the Qing’s emissaries probably had been captured (and interrogated) as well. It would be only reasonable to expect that the Russians are readying themselves for a retaliation.

So far the only “bonus” Qianlong got for the money spent was Amursana with his few thousands followers and few other noble escapees. Well, better something than nothing. The Qing authorities generously gifted each defector, initially providing tax and other benefits, awarding representatives of the nobility and officials with various magnificent titles and honorary court positions. At the same time, the Qing government began to prepare for a new war, expecting that with the aggravation of internal contradictions under the new administration, the Dzungarian Khanate will no longer be able to provide effective resistance.

1746 - 1747. In 1746 , preparations for the war intensified. In Khalkh, an order was received for a universal inspection and a census of all men fit for military service and their weapons without exception. A review of the Khalkha troops was scheduled for the summer of 1746 in the Erdeni-Zu area. [2]
1649185219757.jpeg

A fortress was built here, from the walls of which a chain of posts and outposts stretched to the Dzungar border, where the troops of the Khalkha princes were used. Since the spring of 1746, new units of the Qing army, equipped with artillery, significant supplies of weapons, equipment and food, began to be pulled to the Dzungarian border. The army intended to invade the former Dzungarian Khanate, along with Manchu warriors, began to involve the Chinese (Khan Chinese), southern Mongols and Khalkha Mongols, who were to fight under the command of the Manchus.

The winter of 1746 in the Qing Empire was filled with grandiose mobilizations to complete preparations for the invasion of Dzungaria before the early spring of 1747. The Qing command decided to put all the soldiers on horses, which caused a new wave of mass forced requisitions of the available horse stock. The authorities, without hesitation, took horses and camels from border guards guarding the Russian-Chinese border in Transbaikalia, stopped merchant caravans on the way, took away horses and camels from them, abandoning merchants to their fate. Everything was subordinated to the preparation for a decisive offensive. Each warrior was armed with a sword, a spear, a bow with 40 arrows; the army also had strong artillery [3] and numerous troops with the matchlocks.

Local Manchurian civil and military authorities, spurred by the angry emperor, began to take away the last horses and the remains of cattle from the population of Khalkha free of charge. It came to the point that on the Kyakhta-Urga tract, post stations were left without replaceable horses, so that officials, merchants, diplomatic couriers passing along the tract did not have the opportunity to replace tired horses with fresh ones, which by law and custom always had to be in sufficient numbers at stations. A natural disaster was added to the military extortion - the unfavorable winter of 1746-47, accompanied by severe frosts and deep snow, which caused mass fall of livestock. Those who dared to resist had been punished in a variety of the very unpleasant ways.

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By the spring of 1747 the Qing invasion army was ready for the campaign. It consisted of not only Manchu, but also Chinese troops, detachments of southern Mongols and Khalkhas. The army was divided into two parts. [4]

One of them formed a northern detachment under the command of Manchurian General Bundi [5]. The detachment, assembled three hundred kilometers to the West of Urga, was assigned to march through the Ulyasutaya district (on the Zavkhan River, approximately 500 km to the West from Urga) and move to the valley of the Borotala River, crossing the Bulugun, Chingil rivers, Lake Airik-nor. The southern detachment located, under the command of Manchu General Yunhan, around Bayansair on the Buuntsagaan Lake (approximately 450 km to the South West from Urga) was ordered to march toward the Bortala Valley on the Barkul-Urumqi road.

Each detachment had strong avant-gardes commanded by the Oirat princes, who fled to the side of the Qing dynasty. The vanguard of the northern detachment was commanded by Amursan.

The armies were supposed to meet at Ebi-nuur and them march all the way to the Ili River and beyond.

Total strength of two armies on paper was up to 200,000 but in a reality close to 90,000 - 120,000 combatants of various quality and eagerness. The schema was not too different from one of the previous campaign. An idea of a possible counter-attack was not even considered as incompatible with the imperial dignity. For most of the march, columns would be widely separated from each other by 300-500 km of the Gobi Desert and mountains but this is how things had been traditionally done and it would rather bizarre to assume that the Dzungars or the Russian barbarians, who claimed to be their masters, would dare to go far away from their territory to attack one of the columns.

The Northern column did not went too far when a panicky dispatch came from the top Qing administrator in Urga that a big Russian army crossed the border at Kjakhta and marches South toward Urga. Due to the complete mobilization of the horses, a messenger from the border arrived to Urga just a little bit ahead of the Russian avant-guard, giving the Manchu officials very little time to get the Hell out of the Khalka capital. There was no way to organize any resistance because practically all able-bodied men, except for the officials’ personal guards, had been hundreds kilometers away. The same goes for assessment of the enemy’s force: the locals, who would usually provide the necessary information, had not been inclined to volunteer services for the government which robbed them and, anyway, it was not that they could do much of a scouting without the horses. So the dispatch was saying that the enemy’s army was big without any specifics. Bundi was facing a dilemma: disobeying the imperial orders without a very serious reason was a high crime but, OTOH, a high risk of losing Khalka surely was such a reason and, anyway, advance into Dzungaria with a big enemy’s army marching behind him, most probably would ruin the whole campaign, anyway, even if the enemy would not manage to catch up with before he meets the Southern Army, would destroy plan of the whole campaign. The invader must be dealt with after which the further steps will be defined: the Emperor is going to be immediately informed about the situation and the same goes for commander of the Southern army: mistake of the previous war must be avoided at all cost. A huge column turned back and slowly advanced toward Urga. Some Khalka detachments had been sent forward to collect as much information about the enemy’s strength and movements as possible. Soon enough they saw the Russian scouting parties but those had been retreating avoiding contacts. This was encouraging and report had been sent to general Bundi that the enemy is seemingly afraid of the Emperor’s troops. Unfortunately, no information about the numbers but it does not look like its main force crossed the Orkhon River.

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It looked like the enemy was waiting for the reinforcements before attacking the Qing army and if so then the time of of the essence. Bundi left his huge baggage train under protection of 2,000 Manchu bannermen and with the rest of his army marched eastward with the utmost speed possible.

The Russian army was on the right bank of the Orkhon with the monastery at their back so the positions of a previous war’s battle were reversed. Bundi had over 50,000 troops with a hundred camel guns and 200 zamburaks and expected that they’ll provide enough of a firepower to break enemy’s resistance. It was hard to tell the enemy’s numbers because the barbarians did not line their troops along the river bank. Their artillery pieces had been hidden behind the earthworks, which made it difficult to figure out their numbers and size but also indicated that probably they are too few and the barbarians are trying to protect them.

A thick black smoke raising behind the Russian position indicated that most probably they put the monastery on fire and this made the Khalka contingents quite eager to protect one of their holiest places. After his artillery did some shooting at the earthworks, Bundi permitted attack of the 10,000 Khalka troops positioned on his right flank.
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To the credit of their bravery, the Khalka tried to cross the river three times. Their brain power hardly deserved the high estimate because a cavalry charge across the river right on a battery of the 60 field howitzers and five infantry battalions placed behind the earthworks and chevaux de frise was purely suicidal with a very little chance to cause enemy any noticeable damage. When they were at the end of their third charge, commander of the Russian Baikal Army, lieutenant-general Rumyantsev, ordered counter-attack by two cuirassier and 3 dragoon regiments followed by 2,000 Cossacks. The Khalka fled, exposing the flank and rear of the Qing army: their infantry lined along the river in the standard quasi-linear formation with the field defenses at the front was ill-protected against a cavalry charge on its flank and rear.
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The camel guns firing from a ground without the carriages were of a little use. Zamburaks could provide some protection against the cavalry and so could the pikemen but the Russian cavalry was closely followed by the infantry columns bringing up the battalion guns across the river. A counter-attack of the Manchu cavalry on the crossing was repelled and more troops, including the heavy Dzungar cavalry, making it on the left bank of the Orkhon.

All this, combined with a numerous artillery shooting across the river, was too much and the Qing army started retreat being actively pursued till the end of a day.

The night did not provide a rest because, to quote from Hugo, it is very distressing to fall asleep under the stars and wake up under a grapeshot. The orderly retreat was gradually turning into a panicky flight with the Khalka Mongols using an opportunity to desert, leaving Bundi mostly with the Manchu and Han troops. On the third day of a pursuit, the fleeing and pursuing armies reached the baggage train of the Northern Army and Bundi decided to make a stand with the troops he still have with him by hastily organizing supply carts into some kind of a wagenburg. Not a very effective idea when the enemy has a strong artillery shooting explosives and you just the zamburaks (most of the camel guns had been lost). However, the Manchu and Han troops put a stubborn resistance which ended only after the enemy launched the bayonet charges through the gaps in broken defenses. It took Rumyantsev some time and effort to stop a wholesale massacre. Eventually, the combatants had been sorted out from the noncombatants.

The Khalka noncombatants and even soldiers had been allowed to leave and even given some horses, camels and food to make it to their homes: the Khalka Mongols may be of some use in a near future, at least as long as the fighting in Mongolia s going on. The higher commanders, under the Russian guard had been sent to Urga. The captured low rank Han and Manchu were a different matter. They were assembled divided into the manageable groups and sent toward the Russian border guarded by the irregulars of Rumyantsev’s army. Who just happened to be mostly the Oirats from Dzungaria with the addition of some Transbaikal Cossacks. None of them had any sympathy toward these prisoners and never heard about the “civilized war” (and never saw anything of the kind in their encounters with the Qing). When asked by the convoy commanders about instructions, Rumyantsev answered “march them toward Russia” - “and then?” - “get back fast… and don’t ask stupid questions”. These people were not stupid and the message was clear.

The general was not a cruel person but the earlier experience of fighting in the region and the earlier participation in crushing the Bashkirs taught him that the Western “rules of the warfare” are not applicable: the kindness is going to be taken for weakness and cruelty demands respect. The captured soldiers would be executed by their own government for cowardice, anyway. The commanders were of some value as the source of strategic information, and that’s it.

The surviving groups of the Manchu and Han soldiers had been fleeing to the East and South. Southern direction was across the Gobi desert while Eastern required crossing most of Khalka territory where the looted population was not uniformly friendly.





____________
[1] Some of the leaders of Bashkir uprising had been executed this way in OTL.
[2] Buddhist monastery in Mongolia on the right bank of Orkhon river. Mentioned earlier.
[3] “Strong” in the terms of the numbers: these cannons were the same “camel cannons” and zamburaks as in the previous war. The technological miracles tended not to happen just by the click of the ruler’s fingers.
[4] It seems that the Qing had some kind of an obsession with the two-prong offensives.
[5] To distinguish from Bandi whom I already (mis)used in the previous war. Any relation to the Bundy family (from “Married with children”) is a mere coincidence. 😉







 
Irreconcilable differences?
104. Irreconcilable differences?

The energy of the donkey manifests itself in full measure only when it does not move”
Unknown author
«Что не примет через голову то приимет через зад» [1]
Y. Kim​

Commander of the Southern Army, general Yunhan, got the message from the Northern Army almost simultaneously with a report from the scouts informing him that a big army, marching to intercept him, is crossing the Altay Mountains. Regardless an outcome of the Northern Army’s encounter with its opponent, this meant that the whole campaign plan is going down the tubes. The most prudent strategy was seemingly to join forces with the Northern Army and then to act according to the situation. Yunhan ordered retreat in the East expecting to join forces with Bundi either on Selenga or on Orkhon River but while on the road he got news about Bundi’s defeat and made a bold decision to march on Urga, which would position him to the East of both Russian armies allowing to defend Eastern Khalka and, by the mere fact of the presence of his army there, prevent Russian invasion into Inner Mongolia.

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The plan worked out. Rumyantsev was busy destroying the leftovers of the Northern Army and commander of the Army of Dzungaria, Prince A.M.Golitsyn, was advancing with a great caution.
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A.M.Golitsyn, son of the illustrious fieldmarshal, was an intelligent and personally brave man but as an independent commander he tended to be on a cautious side putting more stress upon security of his troops than on destruction of the enemy. When forced to act by the circumstances, he could be victorious but this was pretty much an extent of his aggressiveness. Probably he was a much better administrator than a military commander, which he demonstrated later as a governor-general of Moscow: he completely reorganized capital’s police, ordered construction of the big stone warehouses for the Military Ministry
1649267701656.png

and founded a new city hospital.

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Rumyantsev was married to his sister but their relations with Rumyantsev were somewhat ambivalent, especially in a military sphere. OTOH, he was a personal friend (just friend) of the Grand Duchess Sophia.

As a result, the strategic situation looked as following:
  • Yunhan reached Urga finding it mostly abandoned (some of the residents fled from the Russians and quite a few from the approaching Southern Army from which they did not expect anything good) except for the residence of the Head of the Khalhi Buddhist church, Bogdo-gegen. Strugglers from the Northern Army who managed to get it to the East and reached Urga, had been severely punished for their “cowardice” and those who lived through the beating allowed to join the Southern Army. Altogether Yunhan had under his command up to 60,000, mostly Manchu and Han troops.
  • Small Russian garrison of Urga retreated to Kyakhta. Garrisons of the border forts had been put on a high alert and Governor-General Rumyantsev, started concentrating available troops near Irkutsk.
  • Rumyantsev with 45,000 was taking position on the left bank of the Orkhon waiting for Golitsyn.
  • Golitsyn with 70,000 (50,000 Russian and Dzungar regulars and 20,000 traditional Dzungar cavalry) was reaching Bayanhongor.
  • Amursana, who left Bundi soon after his defeat at Orkhon, was riding with couple thousands loyalists to Dzungaria in a rather optimistic hope to trigger a massive revolt against the new rulers and to make himself a Khan. The schema did not work but for quite a while he was riding across Dzungaria with its shrinking band being chased by the Russian and local troops. Eventually, few remaining followers delivered him to the authorities thus saving their own lives. He was placed into Irkutsk prison.
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Qianlong, upon receiving reports about the situation, ordered a new mobilization but the ambitious plan to raise and march 300,000 troops to Mongolia proved to be unrealistic. With Khalka being almost completely dried of all types of the resources, even a prolonged maintenance of the Southern army in the region looked very problematic. The Manchu banner resources had been very seriously depleted and marching the big numbers of the Green Banner Hans on foot across Gobi Desert was not practical. Plus, a big army would require a massive requisition of the supplies in the border Manchu and Inner Mongolia territories and they were already seriously depleted by the mobilization of 1746. Then, an inherited surplus of the 33.95 million silver taels was seriously depleted and while the administrative reforms helped to increase the state revenue, the military expenses still had been huge.

As a result, Qianlong settled for a less ambitious plan. The Southern Army should get reinforcements which would bring its size to over 100,000 (it looked like approximately 40,000 were more or less immediately available in Manchuria). With these numbers Yunhan would have to defeat the invading barbarians, kick them out of Mongolia and then proceed to Dzungaria: system of two armies clearly did not work so a single big army would do the trick. Dzungaria proper must be completely cleansed to deal with the Oirats once and forever. In a meantime contingents of the Green Banner will be gradually mobilized and moved toward Kashgar.

The main problem with the plan was that it assumed a complete passivity pf the enemy. Golitsyn could be cautious and slow but he was not inept and his army was steadily marching Eastward cutting Yunhan from Inner Mongolia while Rumyantsev crossed the Orhon marching directly toward Urga. Yunhan was neither stupid nor suicidal so he retreated beyond the Herlen River expecting to keep a retreat line through Undurhaan - Baruun Urt. But, in a rather untypical show of a cooperation, the Russian commanders switched their routes of advance: Rumyantsev with 10,000 of the Dzungar cavalry “borrowed” from Golitsyn, went South toward Undurhaan while Golitsyn marched directly to the Herlen. This was leaving Yunhan with two options: either to try to break through or to keep retreating eastward into a very narrow corridor between Hu Iun Ch’in lake and Hailar (Argun) River where he could easily be caught. He choose a breakthrough trying to deceive Rumyantsev about the point where he was planning to cross the river. This was not easy and the days passed with both sides maneuvering on the opposite banks of the river providing Golitsyn with an ample time for crossing it upstream and marching toward the Qing army. Seeing that the time is running out, Yunhan launched a desperate attempt to cross the river in the full view of Rumyantsev’s army with the predictable results and before he could rally his troops after the failed attempt Golitsyn was at his rear. The leftovers pf his army fled East with the Russian and Dzungar cavalry in a hot pursuit. The Southern Army ceased to exist as a fighting force and the reinforcements marching from Manchuria hastily retreated before even getting close to the Mongolian border.

With more than 100,000 enemies in the Outer Mongolia Qianlong had to start thinking about security of his own capital rather than the ambitious conquests. It was also possible that, if his armies are going to suffer the new beatings, the princes of Khalka may change their allegiance and even security of Tibet may be put into a question. Grudgingly, Qianlong decided to cut his losses or, to be honest, just to restrict his ambitions.

A messenger had been sent to offer an armistice and to start the diplomatic talks. The negotiations had been started near the Russian camp at the Herlen (to “soften” the Qing representatives by a sight of the arriving reinforcements) and, to the Qing’s surprise, had been reasonably easy. Russian side demanded three main items:
  • Confirmation of the Russian sovereignty over Dzungaria and of the pre-war trade agreements
  • Border by the Argun-Amur
  • Indemnity
Khalka will remain in the Qing possession, which was an important face-saving gesture allowing to declare the war one of Qialong’s Great Campaigns: with his censorship system, all potentially critical writings regarding the past war had been destroyed and the official story was about the brave Qing troops successfully defending empire against invasions of the Northern Barbarians.

On the other side of a border, both army commanders were promoted into the full generals and governor-general became a fieldmarshal [2]. He died in 1749.

_____________________
[1] “What he won't learn through his head will learn through his ass” (aka, by being beaten).
[2] In OTL he remained a full general.
 
So something along these lines.
View attachment 731593
The Eastern Galicia (as in “Eastern part of Galicia-Lodometia”) may be considered mostly within a context of not giving Austria too much. Economically developed part of the OTL 1st Partition is not included, anyway. While population of the Eastern Galicia is predominantly Ukrainian, it is also, IIRC, predominantly Uniat so the Tsarist government would not care too much for getting it. So basically it does not make a serious difference one way or another if the Hapsburgs are getting a little bit more or a little bit less of a poor and underdeveloped territory. Their ability to communicate with that area across the Carpathian Mountains is a different story but it is not like these mountains are some kind of an impenetrable barrier: they are quite low with a number of passes through them.

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The important issue within this framework is to have the Rump Poland completely separated from the Ottomans thus excluding situations like the Balta Incident, which in OTL led to tye war of 1768-74: IITL the Ottomans are reasonably friendly to Russia but a political situation within their empire is unstable and sooner or later some kind of a revenge party may get an upper hand so ot would be prudent to minimize the “options”.

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The Eastern Galicia (as in “Eastern part of Galicia-Lodometia”) may be considered mostly within a context of not giving Austria too much. Economically developed part of the OTL 1st Partition is not included, anyway. While population of the Eastern Galicia is predominantly Ukrainian, it is also, IIRC, predominantly Uniat so the Tsarist government would not care too much for getting it. So basically it does not make a serious difference one way or another if the Hapsburgs are getting a little bit more or a little bit less of a poor and underdeveloped territory. Their ability to communicate with that area across the Carpathian Mountains is a different story but it is not like these mountains are some kind of an impenetrable barrier: they are quite low with a number of passes through them.

Yes, but the point is that while you can travel across those passes, they limit the movement of goods and soldiers. It make it harder for Austria to send troop to deal with a external or internal enemy and make the local economy focus outward instead of inward, making a future revolt more likely (a major cause of OTL Schlewig Wars, was the fact that the economic center of Holstein shifted from east Holstein and it focus on the Danish and Baltic markets and toward the South with the focus in the German and North Sea markets).

View attachment 732142
The important issue within this framework is to have the Rump Poland completely separated from the Ottomans thus excluding situations like the Balta Incident, which in OTL led to tye war of 1768-74: IITL the Ottomans are reasonably friendly to Russia but a political situation within their empire is unstable and sooner or later some kind of a revenge party may get an upper hand so ot would be prudent to minimize the “options”.

Russia can also not expect the Ottomans to stay friendly in the long term, right now they’re friendly because they’re weak, but Russia had no way to know that the Ottoman weakness would be permanent.
 
Yes, but the point is that while you can travel across those passes, they limit the movement of goods and soldiers. It make it harder for Austria to send troop to deal with a external or internal enemy and make the local economy focus outward instead of inward, making a future revolt more likely (a major cause of OTL Schlewig Wars, was the fact that the economic center of Holstein shifted from east Holstein and it focus on the Danish and Baltic markets and toward the South with the focus in the German and North Sea markets).

That’s true. The area in question will be gravitating culturally to the PLC and to a much lesser degree to Russia. Economically, AFAIK in the XVIII century this was a relatively poor predominantly agricultural area, which should make it of a limited interest to both “options” just because they are predominantly agricultural as well. Anyway, the PLC hardly would be in a position to start war with the Hapsburgs over Galicia (short of something on Napoleonic scale) and, as I mentioned, for the Russian Empire the Uniats and Catholics were not the people it was going to protect.
So, unless there are some other geopolitical considerations, the area remains the Austrian problem.

Russia can also not expect the Ottomans to stay friendly in the long term, right now they’re friendly because they’re weak, but Russia had no way to know that the Ottoman weakness would be permanent.
This is exactly the point. It is not even just a matter of weakness: “party of revenge” may consider a victorious war to be a way of raising from a present weakness to the earlier greatness and the people with such a mindset are not necessarily properly assessing the odds and tend to rely too much upon the 3rd parties promises. Look, for example, at two Polish uprisings of the XIX century (3 counting Krakow uprising). Or even the Russian-Ottoman war of 1797-92: the Ottomans relied upon “support” promised by Britain, France and Prussia when it declared a war and disregarded experience of being beaten in the previous war. Needles to say that a promised “support” did not materialize and the Ottomans ended up losing even more land.
 
Kokand (part 1)
105. Kokand (part 1).

«Это вы поспешили. Ну да раз взяли, так уж и быть. Не обратно же ее отдавать»
М. Булгаков «Иван Васильевич» [1]
«Мы были свободны, но страсть к завоеваниям не умирала»
Салтыков-Щедрин [2]
The object of war is victory, the object of victory is conquest, and the object of conquest is occupation.”
Napoleon​

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1748. The war with China was over, the border was secure and a continued keeping of more than 100,000 troops in the region was both meaningless and expensive. So, most of of former armies of Baikal and Dzungaria (minus the locally raised troops and garrisons) had to start marching back to the European part of the Empire.

It looked reasonable, while the troops were passing through the region, to settle some old and recent scores. Of course, most of these contingents will keep marching by the “Northern route” but a part of them was going to march through Dzungaria and Southern Kazakhstan, which would bring them to the Khanates of Central Asia.


As a part of the Russian expansion to the East, a border line with outposts along the Yaik River from Uralsk to Guryev with the center in Orenburg was created to protect against nomadic raids, the fortress of which will be the main operating base of Russian troops throughout the region for a long time. To protect their own citizens and new "faithful" subjects, as well as to punish those who betrayed Russian patronage and “treacherously” opposed Russia later, detachments were regularly sent to the steppe, new settlements, border strongholds, redans, ramparts, etc. were built. With the help of such rolling lines of fortifications in pursuit of calm and peace on its borders, Russia moved deep into the steppe. Nevertheless, for a century, raids and robberies by Kyrgyz and Turkmens did not stop. Up to two hundred Russian residents of the border outskirts were captured and sold in the markets of Khiva, Bukhara, Kokand per year, and even the military were sold into slavery along with civilians.

The main culprit, by a virtue of having the longest common border, was Kokand Khanate (red on the map above), which split from the Khanate of Bukhara in 1709 and since 1734 its khan was Abdul Kharim Bey, the third ruler from the powerful Uzbek Ming tribe. Almost from its creation, the Khanate was at odds with the Dzungars and policies of Abdul Kharim Bey toward Russia were not friendly as well. In the khanate a militant anti-Russian party was quite influential and as a result the Russian merchants were oppressed in every possible way by the Kokand administration, which often caused them financial losses. In addition, Kokand began to claim supremacy in the Kazakh villages of the Middle Zhuz, whose residents swore allegiance to the Russian Empire and this was really bad. To start conquest of the whole region was not in the plans but Kokand has to be dealt with either by making it into the Russian vassal (with a meaningful “trimming” of its territory) or by a complete annexation. Any of these scenarios would put enough pressure upon two other Khanates to convince them to adopt a more friendly course.

Ongoing undeclared “small war” had one more specific: it was extremely cruel. For the locals, a part of any military activity was cutting the enemy’s head to be presented to the authorities as a demonstration of a bravery (with a following award).
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So they would routinely decapitate not only the dead but the wounded prisoners as well.
1649524443395.png

Small wonder that the other side developed a similar attitude and a prevailing view was that the only thing that the natives do understand is an extreme cruelty, preferably, Tumur-style (painting below).
1649525985532.jpeg


So far, Russian strategy in the region was shaped mostly by a shortage of the available resources but in a long run “doing things cheap” proved to be quite costly.

Finally, the resources were there. In addition to the troops fighting the big wars in and around Dzungaria there were already quite a few junior- and middle-rank officers who had been posted on the khanates border for years, knew the opponent quite well and, in addition to all other considerations, justifiably considered a big war as a much better chance for the promotion than the obscure skirmishes in a middle of a nowhere. Also, years of the border fighting provided them with a very valuable thing, “a notion of invincibility” [3]: few hundreds Russian troops would inevitably defeat 7 - 10,000 Kokand troops with the minimal losses for themselves. The only vulnerable situation were really small isolated detachments but even those, if led properly, could break through against seemingly overwhelming odds. But even victorious small-scale operations could provide very limited successes and gaining the small pieces of territory meant a very long war.

One more important thing was adopting to the local conditions. The standard uniforms in the hot climate were more dangerous than the enemy so the troops fighting in the region had been given a much lighter uniform: the white shirts and white headgear. Similar uniforms had been distributed to the troops arriving to the theater.

Russian strategy was to attack from three directions:
  • From the East (territory of the Junior Zhuz) a column under command of the Orenburg governor, major-general Perovsky, was going to march on Ak-Mosque (Ак-Мечеть), [4] take it and, after establishing it as a base for the further operations, advance further toward Turkestan (Туркестан). Perovsky would have in his disposal only his own limited forces.​
  • From the North (territory of the Middle Zhuz) column under command of major-general Chernyaev would march to the South. He would get, besides the “local” troops garrisoning the border, some of the contingents marching from the East.​
  • From the East (Kashgar) , the Russian-Dzungar army under command of Peter Rumyantsev, who was in overall command of all operation, was going to march Westward toward Kokand (capital of the Khanate).​
Situation within the khanate favored the invasion. The struggle between nomad Kipchaks and sedentary sarts, which was constantly smoldering in the Kokand Khanate, grew into a real war in 1746. In October of that year, a battle took place in the Bylkyllam tract between the armies of the leader of the "Kipchak party" Muslimulmankul and the government’s troops under command of Mall-bey. The battle was very chaotic, both sides retreated after the first clash, but in the end the victory remained with the government troops. In Kokand itself, the Sarts staged a terrible massacre of the Kipchaks. Such atrocities, of course, did not contribute to the consolidation of Kokandans and weakened the external position of the state.

Capture of Ak-Mosque
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The fortress of Ak-Mosque was founded in 1735 on the left bank of Syrdarya as an outpost in the Kazakh steppes and a stronghold for raids, and a year later it was moved to the right bank of the river. The fortress was a base for the looting bands which raided the Russian borders and it also allowed to extract tribute from the neighboring Kazakh lands. Located at the intersection of caravan routes - from Tashkent, Bukhara and Khiva through Atbasar to Western Siberia, through Turgai to Troitsk and Orenburg - it was of great strategic importance, locking all roads to Central Asia near the Aral Sea, and was considered impregnable by the Central Asian peoples. The previous governor of Orenburg insisted upon a need to take it to prevent the further incursions into the Russian territories and Perovsky fully supported this plan. Moreover, in a report addressed to Emperor Alexey I, Perovsky insisted on the destruction of all Kokand and Khivan fortresses on both banks of Syrdarya.

The Ak-Moscetic fortress was located on a huge depression surrounded on all sides by reeds and shrub thickets. This depression was called Bekaly-Koga and during the flood was filled with the waters of Syrdarya through Karaozek.

The fortifications of Ak-Mosque, as is often the case in medieval cities, formed two lines: the outer and the fortress itself, which was surrounded by a moat with water and had clay walls about 9 meters high with towers at the corners and in the middle of the faces, which had more than 50 fathoms (100 m.) length each. Internal walls were erected much higher than the outer walls, creating a multi-tiered composition functionally determined by the requirements of fortification. The loess loam, which is widespread in Central Asia and southern Kazakhstan, was used for the construction of fortresses and has good elasticity. According to the memoirs of one of the campaign participants, "artillery of that time could not make large gaps in the thick Asian walls." The ducts of Syrdarya also served as additional protection for the city. Inside the fortress there were three freshwater wells, two mosques, madrasas and about 50 adobe houses. The garrison consisted of 300 soldiers with 3 guns.

Expedition of 1746. In the spring of 1746 1,500 Kokand troops under the command of Yakub bey, then commandant of Ak-Mosque, invaded Russian possessions, but was discovered and fled from the Russian detachment in time, abandoning cattle looted from the Kazakhs. After that, it became clear that defensive actions alone could not do and the issue should be resolved radically by taking possession of Ak-Mosque. Perovsky ordered the corps chief quartermaster Blaramberg to go to Aralsk, form a detachment there and, unexpectedly appearing under the Ak-mosque, take it and destroy it. A detachment of 470 people managed to occupy the outer fence of the fortress, but it was not possible to take the citadel - it turned out that their assault ladders were too short. Having lost 20 people killed and 52 wounded, the detachment retreated. On the way back, 3 fortifications abandoned by Kokand were destroyed: Kumysh-kurgan, Chim-kurgan and Kosh-kurgan.

Expedition of 1748. Now, it was decided to repeat the attack with a bigger force.
The detachment consisted of: three companies of the 4th Orenburg Line Battalion, 5 and a half hundred Ural, 2 hundred Orenburg Cossacks and 5 hundred Bashkir-Meshcheryak troops, servants to 36 guns (which were taken from breaching fortifications), and a sapper team. The entire detachment consisted of 2,168 servicemen, including 89 officers and officials (3 generals, 12 staff officers, 50 ober officers, 10 ordinary officers, 14 officials of different departments), with 12 guns and 5 mortars, as well as 500 Kazakh volunteers who served as scouts and goods.

Having passed 410 km in 18 days, the head echelons of Perovsky's detachment arrived at the enemy fortress on July 3 1748. The last echelons tightened two days later. By the night of July 8, the besiegers had erected five batteries. Almost immediately after the end of the siege work, there was a shootout between the Russians and the fortress, and the Kokandians threw homemade grenades from the walls.
But the artillery fire was ineffective: Russian shells did not penetrate the adobe walls of the fortress more than 8 m thick, only sometimes knocked down pieces of battlements from them, and the besieged responded with quite accurate fire from rifles. On July 11, the besiegers managed to break the eastern tower with artillery fire. After this success, all 12 guns were concentrated in this place, which broke through a big gap in the fortress walls. It was not possible to take advantage of the success achieved - the assault did not start immediately, and on the night of July 13, the Kokandians sealed the gap.
It was decided to bring approaches to the fortress and lay a mine under one of the towers. On the night of July 28 (August 10 in the new style), 25 days after the beginning of the siege, a general assault was appointed.
The work was difficult because it was excavated in an area indented by irrigation canals, so it took 21 days to get to the fortress moat. The garrison tried in every possible way to complicate the siege, but the sappers, who worked tirelessly day and night, dug a covered passage through the moat, built a mine chamber and blew up the wall (40 poods of gunpowder were laid). The grapeshot fire of the batteries was immediately directed into the resulting gap of 40 fathoms wide, but the withdrawal before the explosion of troops was diverted 500 meters from the wall allowed the defenders to recover from the first fright and successfully repel the attack of the gap twice, only after the third attack the attackers occupied the collapse and walls, from where they opened fire on the inside of the fortress. Interestingly, along with the sapper work of the besiegers, the Kokand defenders also tried to bring their mine under the trenches of the Russians, but the Russian sappers were ahead of them and brought down the Kokand trench with hand grenades. Infantry and dismounted Cossacks occupied the walls and towers of the fortress, and an hour later, by 4.30 a.m., the fortress was taken. Commandant of Ak-Mosque Muhammad-Wali died in a fight.

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Perovsky immediately ordered reconstruction of the fortifications but before they were completed Kokand army of 12,000 people, consisting mainly of cavalry, approached the fort with 17 bronze guns. In the ensuing battle the Kokand troops tried to attack the Russian advance-guard of 450 from the rear weakening their own center and exposing their camp and artillery. Commander of the advance-guard immediately took advantage of this: leaving only 3 infantry platoons (110 people) and one hundred Cossacks in position, with the remaining 6 platoons (up to 230 people) and one hundred Cossacks, he rushed forward, overturned enemy shooters and captured all 17 guns and the entire camp. At the same time, two small sorties of 80 people arrived to help the remaining platoons in the position. They attacked the Kokands, who were in the midst of their bypassing maneuver, at the rear and the battle was won before the main Russian force managed to join the fight. Kokand lost up to 2,000 killed and wounded, 7 banners, 17 guns and 130 poods of gunpowder. The Russians lost 18 killed and 49 wounded. Commander of the Russian advance-guard got St. George 4th class.

In the military sphere, the undoubted achievement was that the Russian command overcame a frivolous, biased and disparaging view of the enemy. The siege of Ak-Mosque was carried out according to all the rules of military art, with the use of engineering structuresand quite numerous artillery. In field battles, great discipline and training of Russian soldiers and, especially, superiority in firepower were skillfully used.

____________________
[1] “You rushed it. Well, once you took it, so be it. Don't give it back.” M.Bulgakov “Ivan Vasilievich”
[2] “We were free, but the passion for conquest did not die”
[3] In OTL this notion was described by Count Segur, the French ambassador at the court of CII during the Russoan-Ottoman War of 1787-92. In his opinion, the Russians had been consistently winning because “knew” that they’ll defeat the Ottomans regardless the numeric odds.
[4] In OTL the fortress was built only in 1817 but IITL we are well ahead of the schedule. 😉
 
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So I did my view of how Poland-Lithuania could be reduced, based on https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipe...he_Polish-Lithuanian_Commonwealth_in_1764.png and drew borders to exclude areas that were Uniate and would prove to be restive OTL. Parts of western Volhynia and Belorussia would prove troublesome along with Congress Poland in 1800s, so they were excluded. I don't think this is just hindsight, because the western limits of the Russian gains in the 2nd partition was right along this line. If Catherine the 'Great' could figure out gains west of that were a bad idea, before everyone decided to permanently eliminate Poland-Lithuania, I think Alexi can. Lithuania proved to be a hotbed of pro-polish revolts OTL, but I think Sweden with their greater administrative capacity could manage to keep order there.

I think Sweden would get Danzig and probably Malbork to make a nice, compact triangle of territory with Elblag. At this point Sweden is considered a great power while Prussia is not. Prussia is weaker than Sweden until it has a chance to fully absorb Silesia. Further, Sweden is a reliable Russian ally for several decades while Frederick the soon-to-be Great is the opposite of trustworthy and dependable. I gave Prussia Poznan as a consolation prize.

Sweden would get most of Lithuania, including strip gained after Big Foolish War and Danzig and Malbork in Royal Prussia with a population of a little over 1 million*.
Prussia would get the rest of Royal Prussia, the Netze District, and the area around Poznan (smaller than OTL Poznan Region) with a population of roughly 1 million*.
Austria would get Galicia, though slightly smaller than they got OTL in 1st partition, excluding Tarnopol and Belz, with a population of roughly 2 million*.
Russia would get most of Belorussia, a strip of eastern-most Lithuania, Podolskie, eastern Volhynia, and Tarnopol with a population of roughly 2.5 million*.
Rump Poland would have a population of 4.5 million*.
*Note that population estimates are based on population in 1770s, but it should be similar now in ATL, the earlier time being largely offset by a much less devastating GNW (which killed perhaps 15% of Poland-Lithuania's population OTL).
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So I did my view of how Poland-Lithuania could be reduced, based on https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipe...he_Polish-Lithuanian_Commonwealth_in_1764.png and drew borders to exclude areas that were Uniate and would prove to be restive OTL. Parts of western Volhynia and Belorussia would prove troublesome along with Congress Poland in 1800s, so they were excluded. I don't think this is just hindsight, because the western limits of the Russian gains in the 2nd partition was right along this line. If Catherine the 'Great' could figure out gains west of that were a bad idea, before everyone decided to permanently eliminate Poland-Lithuania, I think Alexi can. Lithuania proved to be a hotbed of pro-polish revolts OTL, but I think Sweden with their greater administrative capacity could manage to keep order there.

I think Sweden would get Danzig and probably Malbork to make a nice, compact triangle of territory with Elblag. At this point Sweden is considered a great power while Prussia is not. Prussia is weaker than Sweden until it has a chance to fully absorb Silesia. Further, Sweden is a reliable Russian ally for several decades while Frederick the soon-to-be Great is the opposite of trustworthy and dependable. I gave Prussia Poznan as a consolation prize.

Sweden would get most of Lithuania, including strip gained after Big Foolish War and Danzig and Malbork in Royal Prussia with a population of a little over 1 million*.
Prussia would get the rest of Royal Prussia, the Netze District, and the area around Poznan (smaller than OTL Poznan Region) with a population of roughly 1 million*.
Austria would get Galicia, though slightly smaller than they got OTL in 1st partition, excluding Tarnopol and Belz, with a population of roughly 2 million*.
Russia would get most of Belorussia, a strip of eastern-most Lithuania, Podolskie, eastern Volhynia, and Tarnopol with a population of roughly 2.5 million*.
Rump Poland would have a population of 4.5 million*.
*Note that population estimates are based on population in 1770s, but it should be similar now in ATL, the earlier time being largely offset by a much less devastating GNW (which killed perhaps 15% of Poland-Lithuania's population OTL).
View attachment 732786
Very good. It does not make sense to argue about the minor details as long as there seems to be a consensus on a general idea. Of course, it may be argued that the Russian part, even with a greater population, is economically poor but it has a considerable political value because most of the complaints about oppression of the Orthodox population are gone and with them goes a permanent pressure upon the Russian rulers (the Orthodox Church of Russia may be quite powerless but the complaints related to the oppression of the fellow co-religionists could not be ignored: they have a wide appeal outside the Church itself).

Austria, as far as I can see from the map, did not get small but well-developed areas (BTW, did you gave them Krakow? It is difficult to see on the map) so it is not gaining too much.

Prussia can’t complain (it did not get Danzig in the 1st Partition): getting a land bridge to Eastern Prussia, Poznan and Warmia os a good bonus for the questionable behavior.

For a while I’ll keep dealing with the CA so there is plenty of time for us to figure out alt-7YW (both continuation and the whole event, which may or may not happen; probably it will, anyway), Russian participation in it (if any; not sure if there is a compelling reason, less sure about siding with Austria and completely unsure about getting into it before other idiots are completely exhausted) and the time frame and considerations which led to the alt-Partition.

Then, there is an issue of the Russian succession. Not in the terms of “who” (this is clear) but “when” and what are going to be the policies. Alexey by 1748 is 58 years old so, optimistically, he has 10-15 years more. By which time Peter II (in OTL born in 1715, if I did not change this) is in his 40s, his Prussian wife dies on schedule in 1758 and his son (alt-PIII) will be in the 20s (if he is born few years later than in OTL). So most of the akt-7YW is going to happen during alt-PIII reign (in OTL Russia was financially exhausted by the end of it and I want to avoid this). Sorting these guys out is going to be a separate task. 😉
 
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