Britain Isn't Totnes
An Analogue List for Totnes' Devon County Council Ward
The Morningstar Incident of 1969 set a chain of consequences in action that would define the whole of Harold Wilson's tenure as Prime Minister, would shae the political establishment, and would see him serve as the last Prime Minister to be the senior elected official in Great Britain. In 1970, her family wrecked by scandal and her health failing, Elizabeth Windsor was forced to resign as queen, handing over the reigns of power (briefly) to an Interim Executive Council, before a new president could be elected.
1973: Ed Heath (Conservative)
Ed Heath (Conservative) 48.5%
Jeremy Thorpe (Liberal) 27.4%
Michael Foot (Labour) 24.1%
The 1973 Presidential election was the first election fought under the new constitution and was viewed by many as a referendum on the changes. Unsurprisingly Labour, and their uncharismatic left wing candidate, were viewed with scorn by the electorate. They had never hoped to win, and some viewed Foot's selection as a trap for the left of the party. However, their defeat was worse than anyone could have expected. Ed Heath won in the first round, and Thorpe's excellent performance in the televised debates saw him storm ahead in the polls, securing a comfortable second place.
Ed Heath was a staunch defender of internationalism against an sceptical Labour government and was responsible for the negotiations to join Europe in 1975 when the Conservatives won the House of Commons election in a landslide.
1977: Ed Heath (Conservative)
Ed Heath (Conservative) 57.8%
Barbara Castle (Labour) 19.2%
Margaret Wingfield (Liberal) 18.5%
Charles Windsor (Royalist) 4.5%
The 1977 election was considered by many to be a foregone conclusion. The Conservatives were popular, they were just about making the new republic work, and could still blame all problems on Labour, who were still riven by internal disputes. Their one fear in 1977 was the arrival of Charles Windsor onto the political scene, and the possibility of a revival of monarchy. The old Prince of Wales had built up a successful business but was keen to enter politics. To the surprise of many, his message was not entirely about a return to tradition. He instead focused on ecology, agriculture, and medicine. These messages went down well with the voters, leading to a perception that he was a "nice man" but failed to win over people who wanted a radical return to tradition.
Margaret Wingfield was a late entry to the presidential race, replacing Jeremy Thorpe following his decision to step down. For the first time, two women faced off against each other in televised debates. The campaign between them was hard and Castle was by far the better speaker, with more experience. She was also unblemished by the scandals surrounding the Liberals following the Thorpe affair. However, in spite of this, they only beat the Liberals by under 1%. Labour was still the second party in the House of Commons and the Senate, but the election was a wake up call to them that this was an advantage they were losing.
Ed Heath won the presidency in the first round once again in a contest that was mostly seen as about who came second. For the first time, senate elections were held, and saw the Conservatives dominate the Upper House as well.
1981: Ed Heath (Conservative)
Ed Heath (Conservative) 42.5%
Jo Grimmond (Liberal) 33%
Shirley Williams (Labour) 24.6%
After eight years preparing for power, Ed Heath had developed a "presidential" persona. He attempted to be above party politics, his long opposition to some of the Conservative government's more monetarist policies meant he was viewed by many as an independent adjudicator who was above party politics. This approach worked well, until it hit into the Big Yellow Machine in its first real outing, and a resurgent Labour Party. Heath was attacked by both the challengers in all the debates, and was the subject of a huge negative campaign.
Despite all this, the Conservatives were still winning landslide victories in all elections, and his success was all but assured. For the first time, the presidential election was decided on second preference votes, with Heath coming out ahead.
The Senate elections of the same year saw the Liberals piggybacking on the success of their presidential candidate to break through and obtain 50 out of the 500 seats.
1985 David Penhaligon (Liberal) 46.7%
David Penhaligon (Liberal) 46.7%
Ed Heath (Conservative) 37.8%
Shirley Williams (Labour) 15.5%
Ed Heath's last term as president was no less magisterial than his last, but the sheen was coming off the Conservative government, and while the public were not yet ready to vote for a non-Conservative government, David was able to tap into the protest vote and propel himself into office, easily beating Ed Heath in the second round. He also lead his party to achieve 2nd place in the Senate elections. Another notable result of this election was the election of Charles Windsor as first Green Party Senator. The Greens were a new party, created from an odd mix of Goldsmith's "Survival Party", Charles' remaining "Royalist Party" and (surprisingly) Labour activists who were tired of working within their increasingly right wing party and were looking for a party of protest.
David's presidency was less magisterial than Heath's. He was not above party politics, instead he was head of his party and "the often partisan nature of his comments" were noted often. He helped to begin negotiations in Northern Ireland and was a key figure in negotiations with the USSR, helping to mediate between Reagon and Gorbachev.
Momentum from David's election pushed into the 1987 Commons election, where the Liberals unseated Labour as the Official Opposition.
1989: Michael Portillo (Conservative)
Michael Portillo (Conservative) 46.7%
David Penhaligon (Liberal) 37.2%
Neil Kinnock (Labour) 16.1%
Portillo's modern and enthusiastic campaign was viewed as a radical departure for the party, with posters warning voters of "The Orange Danger" presented by this unknown party. David's campaign was equally high energy and modern. Labour attempted to follow suit, but failed miserably due to the party's low budget and aging membership. Kinnock's Sheffield Rally was viewed as a fatal misjudgment of the national mood - it was too small and nowhere near presidential enough. Kinnock's summary that the event was "alright" would haunt him for the rest of his career. In an age where campaigns needed energy and glamour, his failure to bring either doomed the party to another depressing year.
Ultimately, voters returned to what they viewed as the safe, known quality of the Conservatives holding the reins of power. He went on to support the monetarist wing of his party in the Prime Ministerial primaries, he particularly noted that after the first presidential election without a female candidate since 1973, the country needed a woman in a position of power. Margaret Thatcher easily won the Commons election in 1991, and the pair began to implement radical economic reform.
1993: David Penhaligon (Liberal)
David Penhaligon (Liberal) 41.8%
Michael Portilo (Conservative) 41.0%
Gordon Brown (Labour) 17.2%
Aware that their main weakness was that the public feared their lack of experience, the Liberals opted to nominate Penhaligon again in a campaign that was dominated stories of a "grudge match" between two candidates who had faced off against each other with strong negative campaigns four years ago. In fact, the pair liked each other personally. Not that this stopped the 1993 campaign from being just as nasty as the last. Gordon Brown's "First Preference Labour" campaign was a sign of just how far Labour had fallen since Morningstar. They were now a third party, with no hope of getting into government on their own.
Penhaligon was elected in the second round, and became as much a thorn in the government's side as he ever had been. In 1995, much to their own surprise, the Liberal Party won a majority in the Commons and Penhaligon found himself in the awkward position of actually supporting the government for the first time in his career.
1997: Michael Portillo (Conservative)
Michael Portillo (Conservative) Con 34.8%
David Penhaligon (Liberal) 33.2%
Tony Blair (Labour) 24.7%
Clive Lord (Green) 7.3%
With the Liberal government very unpopular, the monetarists believed that they could use the presidential election to propel themselves back into power in their own party. Portillo was once again nominated, and once again the election became a grudge match between political rivals.
A difference was that voters were bored and Labour was on the march. Tony Blair's powerful presidential campaign, which relied on celebrity and was filmed like a reality TV show throughout, was incredibly successful with the voters and some argue it could have won, had the Greens not drawn attention away from Labour. For the first time since 1977, there was a fourth candidate, and the result was that the media had a choice between focusing on "the big two" or including all four candidates, meaning that Labour had to share their reduced airtime with a relatively haphazard and entertainingly gaffe prone campaign.
The presidential electoral system is that all parties but the top two are eliminated, and second preference votes from those are counted. With the Liberals unpopular in government, a lot of Labour's second preference votes went Green, and vice versa. This allowed Portillo to win a second term. Unfortunately for him, this did not have the desired effect with his party, who slid slightly further to the centre ground, causing difficulties between Portillo and the government.
2001: Paddy Ashdown (Liberal)
Paddy Ashdown (Liberal) 40.6%
Michael Portillo (Conservative) 40.3%
Robin Cook (Labour) 19.1%
Voters breathed a sigh of relief when they realised that they were not going to be presented with another grudge match, but the 2001 campaign was incredible close and incredibly bitter in its own right, with Labour squeezed between what were now firmly viewed as the two main parties. The result was close, but Labour second preference votes easily swung it for the Liberals in the second round.
The Liberals took the Senate in 2001, and the Commons in 2003, allowing Paddy to serve as head of state for a government he was not in conflict with. The new Liberal government was able to push through several important Liberal policies, including STV and devolution.
2005: Paddy Ashdown (Liberal)
Paddy Ashdown (Liberal) 49.9%
Ken Clarke (Conservative) 24.8%
Betty Boothroyd (Labour) 15.8%
John Redwood (UKIP) 9.4%
With the Liberals in power once again, the Conservatives played for the protest vote and misjudged hard, nominating a former Prime Minister as their candidate. However, the Liberals were still ahead in the polls and even mid-term were still in a honeymoon period. The rise of UKIP - an anti-EU party headed by former Conservative John Redwood, further harmed the Conservatives, allowing for a decisive Liberal victory.
2009: Jenny Jones (Green)
Jenny Jones (Green) 32.5%
Paddy Ashdown (Liberal) 32.0%
David Davis (Conservative) 27.2%
David Miliband (Labour) 8.3%
By 2009 the Liberals were mid-way through their second term and the honeymoon period was firmly over. Particularly as global financial crisis was forcing the government to implement cuts to social spending, while unemployment was rising. However, with the Labour party now little more than a third party, voters found themselves casting about for somewhere to lodge their protest.
They found this in the energetic Green campaign that pushed their candidate as a principled crusader who would be emboldened to act for the common good even if she didn't win the election. Midway through the contest, however, people began to wonder if she might be in contention to win. She achieved excellent performances in the debates, which coincided with the GCHQ hacking scandal and the Sellafield nuclear reactor accident. She also proposed a referendum on the EU - a policy not copied by any other party which proved exceptionally popular, though out of her power to actually do. She won comfortably on second preference votes.
2012: Jenny Jones (Labour)
The defection of Jenny Jones to Labour with just one year left of her term came as a surprise to most people. The reasons for it were well known - she clashed with her party on many important political issues, and internally she supported the modernisation of the party against the dominant view of the leadership. Her defection was an act of desperation to find support for her policies, particularly surrounding an EU referendum and legal reform. Unfortunately, she was never very popular with Labour and the defection was misjudged. In a tight primary, the party opted to support a different candidate in the next presidential election.
2013: Chris Huhne (Green) 31.9%
Chris Huhne (Green) 31.9%
David Cameron (Conservative) 24.7%
Jo Rowling (Labour) 18.9%
Nigel Farage (UKIP) 15%
Nick Clegg (Liberal) 9.4%
The Greens selected a former Liberal, Chris Huhne, as their candidate, and prepared to defend their good position in presidential elections, in spite of being only the third largest party in Senate and the Commons, and not having an incumbent. For the first time ever, the presidential election had a representative from each of the major parties, and it was unknown how voters would react to the defection.
Labour's campaign was doubtlessly presidential and high energy, but the party had limited resources to work with, and it was clear that the Greens and Conservatives were pulling ahead. The big surprise at election night was the Liberal's being knocked down to third party in the Senate behind the Greens, and coming decisively last. Panic began to set in, with many defections in the commons before the 2015 election, which saw the Conservatives decisively returned to government.
2016: Chris Huhne (Liberal)
Chris Huhne's defection was not as unexpected as the last Green president's had been. The Green presidential primary had already happened, and Huhne had lost decisively, after being heavily criticised for his willingness to work with the Tories. Huhne was, however, popular with the public, and the Liberals offered to re-run their own Primary in order to have him as their candidate.
2017: ????
Chris Huhne (Liberal)
Caroline Lucas (Green)
Sarah Wollaston (Conservative)
Diane Abbott (Labour)
Douglas Carswell (UKIP)
The next presidential election is now a month away, and it is not clear how people will vote. Will they once again stick with the Greens who have twice now run candidates who defect on winning? Will Chris Huhne's personal popularity and the recovery of his party in the polls push him forward? Or will they both split the left-wing vote and let the Conservatives in? Time will tell.