Stalin’s Nightmare: The Lwow Wargames
Stalin’s willingness to de-escalate matters with Japan, even at a loss, can largely be chocked up to developments in Europe. While Zhukov’s forces were being bagged up in the east, it became crystal clear just how real the threat posed by the German led block was.
June 1st represented the start of the colossal Lwow Wargames. These army level manoeuvres in eastern Poland involved four Polish corps, and a number of brigade sized formations from Hungary and Romania. These were joined by an even more diverse horde of observers from the UK, Belgium, Turkey, France, Italy, Estonia, Latvia, Germany, and even the recently reunited Spain.[1]
Ostensibly these manoeuvres were meant to simulate a response to an invasion of Poland by “Green Force”. However, the actual manoeuvres focused substantially on the prospect of a mobile counter attack, rather than any defensive actions by “Blue Force”. Furthermore, when the Green Force was encircled around Lwow the mobile elements of Blue Force pressed on, leaving only a smaller siege force to deal with the city. This strongly indicated that the tactics being tested were offensive in nature, and not meant to be employed on Polish soil.[2]
Besides offensive maneuvers, the war games were an opportunity to practice interoperability, not just between the participating nations but also between land and air assets. Although, some of the German observers were critical of the lack of dive bombers.
Poland's German guests also took the opportunity to assess the quality of Poland’s infrastructure. Western and central Poland had a fairly dense road and rail network, with plenty of redundant capacity. The eastern regions however were far sparser. In the southeast, and especially around Lwow, the situation wasn’t too dire, but the northeast in particular had atrophied due to the lack of commerce with both the USSR and Lithuania. Furthermore, the vast Pripet Marshes created a logistical dead zone, for which there was no solution. Some noted that this could be to Poland's advantage, as it reduced the amount of border Poland had to defend, but others noted that the lack of infrastructure in Poland's northeast and southeast regions was made all the worse due to the lack of north-south infrastructure. One of the Heer officers in attendance suggested that Germany might be willing to invest in Eastern Poland's infrastructure in exchange for Poland consenting to Germany reintegrating the Free City of Danzig, but was swiftly reminded by one of their colleagues that the Heer was not involved in policy-making.
Polish infrastructure in 1939.
The final opportunity offered by the wargames was a social one. While merely a sideshow to the main event, there was a series of functions held at various manor homes around Lwow. These gave a rare opportunity for the officers of the various nations to mingle outside of an official capacity. Allowing the German officers to directly interact with the men who maintained the military dictatorships in Poland, Hungary, and Spain,[3] had an immediate impact on the Heer. The Germans did their best to not be caught salivating over the situation in Poland and Hungary, where the coup plotters had aged like fine wine into internationally respected elder statesmen. This strongly contrasted with what they had previously observed of the Italians, their army crumbling under the weight of far too many political appointees. The extent to which this undermined the Heer’s “apolitical” traditions is perhaps best summed up by an apocryphal statement by Generaloberst Walther von Brauchitsch to General der Gebirgstruppe Günther von Kluge, “I’ve seen where we’re going, and I know where I’d like to end up.”
Renting Security for the Eastern Flank: Soviet Negotiators in Seoul
With Poland looking ready to descend on Moscow, Stalin was understandably very willing to cut a deal with Japan. Molotov’s instructions were to secure any peace that maintained the territorial integrity of the USSR, and importantly not make the USSR appear weak. The second of those requirements was nearly a lost cause from the outset.
Japan’s Foriegn Minister, Hachirō Arita, saw the negotiations within a framework of building a Japan-centric new order in East Asia. Everything down to the location of the negotiations was carefully calculated. It was hoped that hosting the USSR’s representatives in Seoul would discredit and demoralize the Communist Party of Korea.
1930s Seoul, known as Keijo under the Japanese.
During these negotiations Minister Arita was very keen on the exact language, specifically where it concerned the common frontiers of the Soviet Union, Mongolian People’s Republic, Empire of Japan, and Empire of Great Manchuria. Arita recognized that he was unlikely to get the USSR to open an embassy in Hsinking. Yet, getting them to sight a treaty with them, one which explicitly names the Empire of Great Manchuria and concerns its sovereignty and territorial integrity, constituted diplomatic recognition.
On the subject of a non-aggression pact, Arita’s proposals were a compromise between those of the Army and Navy. He sought, and ultimately received a “rental agreement”. The Japanese observance of the non-aggression clauses would be conditional on the Japanese being able to order and receive up to 400,000 tons of oil each month at sub-market value.[4]
Additionally, a joint border monitoring force was established. As a single concession to Soviet honour, the treaty would be given a title that didn’t allude to the recent conflict. The “Agreement Concerning Commerce, Common Borders, and Cohabitation in North Asia” was signed in Seoul on the 4th of July and ratified by the relevant governments in the following weeks.
The Mongols were perhaps the most upset about the treaty, given it voided many of their territorial claims. That it didn’t affect their claims further south and west was their one consolation. Not that they could act on them.
The Italy of Asia: From Siam to Thailand
Siam had had a tumultuous time during the 1930s. In 1933 General Phraya Phahol seized power in a military coup. Since then the country had endured rebellion, partial redemocratization, political crisis, and in December of 1938 the dictator stepped down. His replacement, Field Marshal Plaek Phibunsongkhram (Phibun for short)[5] retrenched the dictatorship and set about modernizing the country along the lines of Fascist Italy.
While his predecessor encouraged the adoption of the Roman salute, the Phibun encouraged the adoption of western clothes and utensils. More importantly, Phibun also pursued industrialization through autarky, raising new tariffs and involving the government in the creation of new industries. He also fostered nationalism and even supported irredentist claims.
Period leaflet showing non-permitted and permitted dress.
On June 24th, he issued the first of his Cultural Mandates. Here he clarified that the country was to be exclusively referred to as Thailand, and that it’s people were to be exclusively known as Thais.
To the surprise of Phibun and many others this proved to be a more complicated matter than Iran’s name change earlier in the decade. Lord Halifax politely declined on the grounds that the name suggested territorial claims to much of Northern Burma.[6] The Republic of China followed suit in protest of the Siamese government’s open persecution of the nation’s Chinese minority.
Phibun did not take this slight sitting down, and on the 3rd of July issued another mandate, this time issuing proscriptions against engaging in international business. In particular it equated business with the British and their subjects to treason. Siam’s name would remain a subject of contention for some time.
Laying Down Hulls in the Post-Treaty Era: South Dakota Reborn
Let us return now to America, whose military had thus far been closely watching the war in Asia. With glacial speed, the military establishment and the nascent interventionist faction began producing tangible results. As with all products of American politics, it occurred primarily on the basis of personalities and circumstances.
The key personality in this instance was Assistant Secretary of the Navy Charles Edison, son of Thomas Edison. Edison had an interest in battleships and, with the declining health of the penny pinching Secretary of the Navy[7] and the implosion of the treaty system, he was well positioned to get his way.
It wasn’t long after the start of the Anglo-Japanese War that he ordered a reassessment of the hulls to be laid down in 1939. The assumption that war between two of the Treaty powers meant a defacto end to the regulations of the treaty guided the initial design of a greatly lengthened ship that would be capable of 33 knots to keep up with the carriers. The decisive influence of shell size and naval gunnery during the Battle Off Borneo however caused a change of course.
The revised South Dakota design of 1939 very closely resembled the 1920 South Dakota design. Having been lengthened to accommodate a fourth triple turret,[8] the design now weighed in at an eye watering 47,000 tonnes. Getting the rest of DC to approve such an escalation, and accompanying price increase, would be a tough sell.
An illustration of a triple 16" turret.
Throughout April and May Edison pressed the President on the need to prevent a gunnery gap, met with the relevant House committees, and quietly corresponded with representatives of the Neo-Preparedness Movement.[9] As the one who first invoked the escalator clause, President Roosevelt didn’t need much prodding to lend his public support. Similarly, the Neo-Prepardness Movement was willing to support anything that got America closer to a war footing. Congress and the Senate however still had powerful isolationists, pacifists, and penny pinchers. As the scheduled laying down date for the previously planned South Dakotas neared, it increasingly looked like the improved designs would have to be shelved, at least for the time being.
Unexpectedly, Poland provided the 11th hour miracle. The international section of every newspaper was almost exclusively occupied with the Lwow War Games and the accompanying naval manoeuvres for nearly the entire month of June. The few stories successfully wrestling page space away from depictions and descriptions of the proceedings were usually focused on the actual battles being fought in Manchuria and the Indo-Pacific. Letters by concerned citizens flooded into the halls of power. Perhaps the best illustration of the public’s distress came on the 15th of June when outspoken non-interventionist[10] Thomas E. Dewey admitted to a reporter that American neutrality would be contingent on America being strong enough to be taken seriously.
The time seemed right. The navy’s ability to fully make use of the escalator clause was put to the floor the following week. After a few rounds of impassioned speeches and a half baked filibuster attempt by an isolationist, the motion passed by a narrow margin.
BB-57
South Dakota would be laid down in accordance with the new design on July 5th.
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[1] Spain’s contribution was limited to a handful of officers and the heavy cruiser
Canarias, yet it played an outsized role in the games. Green Force’s tactics were based on those employed by the Republicans during the Spanish Civil War, and, with 34 victories under its belt during the Spanish Civil War, the
Canarias was made flagship of the Blue Force during the accompanying naval manoeuvres in the Baltic.
[2] As its political and emotional importance to the Polish nation would make retaking Lwow priority 1 in any actual war.
[3] While Spain was officially Fascist, the officers at Lwow made no effort to maintain the facade, and openly equated the SS and MVSN to the amateur militias they had humoured during the Civil War.
[4] The USSR’s ability to meet these deliveries while in a truly life or death struggle was doubtful.
[5] or, if you prefer the local nickname, Marshal P.
[6] In fact, the Burman nationalists briefly ceased their protests, strikes, and other efforts to hinder Britain’s war effort, and instead rioted against the Thai minority. The nationalist fervour died down somewhat after some segments of the nationalist’s leadership cooperated with the British to reign in the mob.
[7] Claude A. Swanson.
[8] There was also a scheme to keep it at 3 turrets, but to replace the planned 16”/45 guns with the 16”/50 guns left over from the 1920s South Dakotas and Lexingtons, yet these were soon appropriated for shore batteries.
[9] A catch all term for the China Lobby, Macarthur’s Philippine Lobby, Wendell Wilke’s Interventionist Lobby, and certain Atlanticists.
[10] who usually had a pretty firm read on the “pulse” of the populous.
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