Pretty close, but a bit compressed, and with less time between major events things are a lot more heated.


The fortunate thing is that Canada does have plenty of good (or at least competent) officers in waiting, the unfortunate thing is that where as iotl they sorted that manner out on the training field in Britain, here they're having to sort that out during an actual campaign, which is naturally going to be rough and messy.


Let's see if they can avoid the temptation to invade Russia in winter :p


Yeah, basically.


Thanks!

It will always be the case that Officers have to train on the job. Many years ago when I was promoted to Sgt the first thing that I was told that the 2nd LKeith ant may be the platoon commander but I had to run it until he learned the job. It worked and we had a great platoon commander. The same goes for any rank an officer makes there is always some one not with a Commission standing in the back ground keeping them on the right track. The only issue is when some one is promoted out of the ranks things can get slightly sticky at time.

Where this does fall down is with reserve officers some may not have SNCOsnstanding in the back ground that may not have seen combat and or a lot of experience. A big worry is also that the Japanese know how the Commonwealth play book and can react to it some times.
 
Great to see this back. Canada and her Allies are about to get a bloody nose going after Rabaul. Just how much blood will get inflicted I guess we'll find out.
 
Since it seems there will be no war in Europe in 1939, there’s a pretty massive butterfly that would result from that, namely that Georg Elser’s assassination attempt on Hitler and much of the Nazi leadership on November 8, 1939 might be successful.

IOTL the bomb Elser planted in the Bürgerbräukeller went off only 13 minutes after Hitler had ended his speech.

According to Wikipedia, Hitler had initially cancelled his speech at the Bürgerbräukeller to devote his attention to planning the ongoing war with France and Britain, but then changed his mind and decided to attend after all. But because weather reports had forecasted fog, which could’ve possibly prevented him from flying back to Berlin the next morning, Hitler instead decided to return to Berlin the same night with his private train. The departure from Munich's main station was set for 9:30 p.m., so the start time of the festivities in the Bürgerbräukeller was brought forward half an hour to 8 p.m., and Hitler cut his speech from the planned two hours to one-hour. Hitler ended his address to the 3000-strong audience of the party faithful at 9:07 p.m., 13 minutes before Elser's bomb exploded at 9:20 p.m. By that time, Hitler and his entourage had left the building.

Without the war in Europe going on, it’s likely that Hitler’s speech happens as originally scheduled, since there would be no important meetings in Berlin that couldn’t just be delayed by a day or two. And Elser had started to plan for the whole thing all the way back in 1938, before the PoD, so I doubt the war between Britain and Japan would change his mind.

And there were a lot of important people at the Bürgerbräukeller that evening: Besides Hitler himself, Joseph Goebbels, Rudolf Hess, Reinhard Heydrich, Robert Ley, Alfred Rosenberg and Heinrich Himmler were also present, among others. Göring seems to have been the only high-ranking Nazi who didn’t attend (though butterflies might change that too).

Of course, if Hitler’s survival is required for the story, then there could be other reasons for why he leaves the festivities early, but depending on what @SealTheRealDeal has planned for the future, the November 8 bombing could theoretically take out much of the German leadership in one stroke, possibly leaving Göring in charge. Or maybe Göring attends too, and is killed along with the others, which means there would probably be some kind of military government until they figure out who to put in charge. Lots of possibilities there.
 
That would have an enormous impact on the historiography of Hitler.

He will be regarded as a great, visionary leader with some flaws given German policy towards Jews had yet descent into genocidal madness. While the Kristallnacht had occurred, many regarded it, particularly in the foreign press, as another pogrom against Jews akin to that in Tsarist Russia - responses internationally were so muted that there was no mention of it in the New York Times days after.
I mean, his Military Rearmament policies were sort-of-kind-of bankrupting Germany, so... Maybe not.
 

Deleted member 94680

Hitler dead in ‘39 at the hands of a lone radical doesn't necessarily mean the end of Nazi Germany. The Wehrmacht are still loyal, public opinion is in favour of Hitler (due to his foreign policy successes) and the European Great Powers are still cautiously fighting a conventional War against Germany. Poland has been defeated, but the Low Countries, France or Scandinavia haven't been invaded.
 
Are the american reinforcing philippines and their other Pacific islands/terrories?
Somewhat more than OTL, but relocating the Pacific fleet from Cali out to Pearl is eating up much of the Pacific ops budget. Starting in 1940 you can expect much more substantial fortification and reinforcement of the US' Pacific possessions.
 
Is the French military better prepared in TTL to fight Germany and/or Japan?
Definitely better prepared against Japan, some higher quality units have been rotated into Indochina, as have some more armoured assets.

To fight Germany? Eh, not much has changed in the balance of power there. That said their military factories are "spooled up" a bit more than OTL, so it's possible they'll be able to better sustain their mechanized forces in the field.
 

Horseshoe

Banned
What are John Vereker, 6th Viscount Gort,Philippe Pétain and Maurice Gamelin since they were partly responsible for the defeat of France and the British BEF in 1940
 
What are John Vereker, 6th Viscount Gort,Philippe Pétain and Maurice Gamelin since they were partly responsible for the defeat of France and the British BEF in 1940

I think that what's more important would be if any useful lessons been learnt in the fighting in the Far East that could be learnt, digested and shared that would have a possible impact on the (if it happens TTL) BoF. Simple things like, when asked about communications Gamelin says to Gort "Operational security is too easily compromised by the extensive use of radios" to which Gort replies "Our experiences in fighting the Japanese prove that that that's complete nonsense!"
 

Deleted member 94680

I think that what's more important would be if any useful lessons been learnt in the fighting in the Far East that could be learnt, digested and shared that would have a possible impact on the (if it happens TTL) BoF.
I’m not 100%, but I’m pretty sure “lessons learnt” weren’t heavily disseminated from one Theatre to another in the pre-WWII period.
Simple things like, when asked about communications Gamelin says to Gort "Operational security is too easily compromised by the extensive use of radios" to which Gort replies "Our experiences in fighting the Japanese prove that that that's complete nonsense!"
Unfortunately, you'll have to overcome the latent racism of the period as Gamelin is likely to reply that it was the fault of the backward Japanese and a more advanced enemy like the Germans are needed to be treated with more respect.
 
17. Japan’s Recovery
Shaking the Steppe: The Wagyu Locks Horns With The Gorbatov

The Kwantung Army had long held a dismissive view of the Soviets. They also held a dismissive view of Hitoshi Imamura due to the exact circumstances of his victory in Hong Kong. Accordingly, the officers in Ryojun were not particularly pleased with the situation to their northeast. At the same time, they were adverse to shaking up the command of the 4th Army while it was in combat. Instead they begrudgingly reinforced him.

Fortunately for them, Hitoshi Imamura was more than just a competent yet insubordinate division commander who’d been promoted as a way to expediently remove him. A fact that the Soviets were loath to discover.

One of the most important new arrivals to Imamura’s camp was Lieutenant General Masaomi Yasuoka, former head of the IJA’s tank school. With him came a two regiment strong armoured detachment, including 38 medium tanks, 35 light tanks, and 14 tankettes.

Another important arrival was that of the IJAAS’ 2nd Air Brigade. While less than half the strength of the Soviet air forces participating in the battle, their planes were generally more modern and their pilots much more experienced.

Guidance from Tokyo and Ryojun was minimal and almost contradictory in nature. Imamura was tasked with winning the dispute, but not escalating the matter into a full blown war.[1] It seemed no one was willing to risk responsibility for a third “accidental” war. Yet neither was anyone willing to out themselves as a defeatist by suggesting de-escalation.

Imamura interpreted this as instructions to quickly and decisively win. This would be an issue, as the severe limitations of the region’s infrastructure meant that the strength of the 4th Army couldn’t be brought to bear. However, it was clear that the Soviets were at least equally hamstrung by their own logistical circumstances. In particular they had an obvious bottleneck in the form of the pontoon bridges across the Khalkhin River.

Like any good plan, it began with a feint. The 4th army surrendered land, even Nonomhan, over the course of the skirmishes in early June. The Soviets were drawn forward, away from the bridges that formed their delicate lifeline.

Just after midnight on June 12th the Soviet bridge was struck by Japanese planes as it was illuminated by the headlights of a convoy. At dawn Komatsubara’s 23rd division attacked west with the sun to their backs. To its north, the 1st Division pressed in on the Soviet forces around the village of Nonomhan. Further north west, Yasuoka’s detachment, supplemented by the 44th truck brigade, cut south and dashed towards the Soviet bridges.

The Soviets had been expecting an attack, but not quite this. A corps level combined arms attack was still a few rungs higher on the escalation ladder than what the Soviets had been expecting. 15cm rounds tore up their field fortifications while the rising sun and lack of radio equipped forward observers prevented the Soviet guns on the west bank from providing effective fire throughout the morning. By midday they were able to spot for their own artillery thanks to their elevated position, but by then the forces they were meant to support were already retreating in disarray from Nonomhan.

To the north, the Yasuoka Detachment encountered greater difficulties, as the superb Soviet 45mm gun had significantly better range than the 37mm anti-tank guns and 57mm medium velocity guns that armed the Japanese vehicles. The force accordingly had to rely substantially upon the attached truck borne infantry as their mortars and infantry guns were able to effectively suppress anti-tank guns and the more lightly armoured vehicles. Still, the 4th Army’s reserve had to be deployed in support of the enveloping maneuver.


The Type 97 Chi Ha was the most modern Japanese tank during the operation. While it had some good characteristics it's medium velocity 57mm gun was not one of them.

Zhukov tried to reinforce the forces on the east bank via a series of submerged bridges. Yet the actual crossings revealed their locations and invited air and artillery attack. Consequently the envelopment was completed by the 18th.

On the 20th Zhukov attempted to coordinate a joint break-in break-out operation, extensively supported by SB fast bombers, and managed to restore control over the east bank. However, a strong Japanese counter attack reestablished the envelopment the following day after the Soviet planes were hit on the ground.

Frantic cables to Moscow requesting additional assets were turned down. The situation in the summer of 1939 was such that Stalin couldn’t afford to weaken his stance in Europe. The battle was lost.


Disaster In High Command IV: Bloody New Blighty

In the skies over New Britain, the final generation of biplanes faced off against the first generation of low wing monoplanes. The Ki-27 of the IJAAS faced off against FDB-1s flyingin from the surrounding islands, and the disparity between the two was smaller than one may have expected. Provided they weren’t carrying a bomb load, the FDB-1 wasn’t much slower than the Ki-27, while being more maneuverable and better armed. Still, the need to ditch their bomb load the instant an enemy plane was spotted meant that the Fighter Dive Bomber-1s were failing the DB part of their name more often than not.

The Japanese had realized this, and would frequently make only a single pass on their enemies, knowing that even if they failed to shoot down anything they had still foiled the Canadian’s operation. Such tactics saved fuel and eliminate the risk of getting in a turning fight against a biplane.[2]

The Skuas aboard Ark Royal were another first gen low wing monoplane that underperformed. Being even slower than the FDB-1 and worse in every way than the Ki-27 was a bad look for the FAA’s newest fighter.

With the war in the air not yielding any particular advantage to the Commonwealth forces, it fell once more to naval gunfire to flatten a landing zone. On June 13th HMS Canada unleashed yet another broadside. It and its escorts would fire for only an hour before the Canadians made their assault on Uvol.

Even that much was unneeded as the Uvol region was occupied only by terrified natives. As the Canadians pressed inland they found little sign of Japanese presence beyond the occasional airplane. For many soldiers it was only after they’d marched for a day without reaching the Island’s north coast that they realized just how big the island was. While they’d done their training in the Caribbean, New Britain was actually much more like Vancouver Island in terms of sheer size and terrain features. Accordingly, they were very far away from Rabaul.

It was then that Mcnaughton commenced his plan, dividing his force in two, with one brigade traveling west to prevent the Japanese reinforcing from nearby Lae, and the other two moving east towards Rabaul. To facilitate faster movement some forces re-embarked their landing ships and motored along the coasts.

A new piece of equipment, the Canadian Military Pattern Truck, arrived that month, and its reliable engine and 4x4 drive gave it good off road characteristics. Accordingly it wasn’t long before these logistics vehicles were being used to ferry soldiers through the island’s interior to attack airfields and fortifications. During these sweeps of the interior one thing became clear: there was far more than a single brigade on the islands.

In fact, reinforcements from Lae and Truk had brought the Japanese presence on the island up to division strength. Further, the Japanese continued to demonstrate excellence in lateral and retrograde manoeuvres. The Canadian’s fast trucks often carried them directly into ambushes.

Before the month was through the Canadian advance had not only stalled, but they were pressed back into the Uvol-Mataburu Corridor.


Lieutenant-General McNaughton's over cautious selection of landing sights, slow movement and piecemeal advance has been strongly criticized by military historians and contemporary observers alike.


The Siege of Niah: The Upside Down Mesopotamia Campaign is Turned on its Head

By June the Borneo Corps was on the move again. On the tenth The Indian 4th Division was able to reach the banks of the Niah river, with the 5th Brigade, composed of the Gurkha and Rajput Battalions, occupying the town of Niah.

It seemed the Borneo Corps was finally going to push beyond the region between the Batang Sui and the Sungai Niah. That miserable stretch of jungle, which some had taken to cheekily calling upside down Mesopotamia on account of its position between the two rivers, had claimed the lives of thousands of men over the preceding months. The news prompted celebration as the final push to evict the Japanese from Borneo would surely soon be at hand.

Yet it was not to last. The 6th Army counter attacked during the night, and even forwent artillery support to maximize surprise. By morning the Japanese had assembled a powerful striking force in their newly acquired bridgeheads and proceeded to push the 4th Division back. Only the 5th brigade under Brigadier William Slim was able to hold its ground. The town of Niah was enveloped as a consequence.


Brigadier Slim in campaign hat.

Abruptly, the British tune changed. Some more superstitious officers went so far as to ban their men from using the term “upside down Mesopotamia”. Some recalled the actual Mesopotamian Campaign during the Great War, and the comparison was no longer welcome now that the Siege of Kut seemed to be playing out again in small scale.

Desperate to avoid catastrophe, Auchinleck arranged for supplies to be air dropped on the town. Every measure that could prolong the 5th Brigade’s resistance was undertaken. Not only was rescuing the brigade a top priority, but it was also imperative to deny the Japanese that town. As the hub of the roads and trails in the region the 6th Army was effectively paralyzed so long as they didn’t hold the town.

As the days passed it became apparent to both sides that the action at Niah would likely be the decisive action of the Borneo Campaign.


Catch Your Breath: Japanese Grand Strategy While Pressed On Four Fronts

Japan’s various successes during the month of June had been quite a windfall for the beleaguered island nation. To the south their forces successfully frustrated the advance of a numerically superior British force. To the north they had dealt a humiliating blow to the Soviet Union. Best of all, they had accomplished all of that without withdrawing any further forces from China. Unfortunately, these victories largely served to reinforce the delusion that Japan might win.

During the liaison conference on the 30th of June, the main subject was what to do about the Soviet situation. Japan had a strong hand given the scale of its victory and the situation in Europe. Thanks to the relative restraint Imamura had shown,[3] Japan could even approach these negotiations from a position of moral legitimacy.

There were, however, different ideas on what exactly Japan needed, and as typical of the period, it largely came down to the Army vs the Navy.

The IJN saw the USSR as a backstop. Anything to ensure peace in Japan’s northern waters was needed. Better yet, the USSR’s vast oil reserves made the Soviets an ideal trading partner for Japan, given how quickly its shipping capacity was disintegrating due to the British submarines.

The IJA felt the IJN should shut up and stop trying to reap benefit from a battle it played no part in. The IJA held the Soviet Union in absolute contempt. To them the arrogance and self-entitlement of the colonial powers was not nearly as offensive as the continued existence of the USSR. The IJA wanted to be free to cleave off the Russian Far East as soon as Germany moved to do in the Bolshevik regime. It accordingly was very strongly opposed to any non-aggression pact.


Imperial General Headquarters. Naval officers are seated to the left, army officers to the right. The gap between the two sides presumably existed to prevent disagreements from turning violent.

Given the division in the military, and the fact that all the rabid young officers were fortunately at the front, it seemed that the foriegn ministry was going to be able to decide matters for itself for once. One thing all parties agreed on was that getting the USSR to recognize the Imperial State of Manchukuo would be a diplomatic coup de main.

---

[1] Something Japan wasn’t prepared for in the summer of 1940.

[2] Yes, I have concocted circumstances in which the Japanese are the ones doing Boom and Zoom. God help us.

[3] in terms of treatment of POWs, bombing the Soviet airfield had been a dangerous escalation.

A/N:
Sorry for the long wait, between the job search and winter lethargy it has been really slow going on this one. I guess I’ll make the discord group now… (message me for deets)

Japan seems to have found its footing, question is how long it can keep it while Britain dials up its commitment to the Far East. Next time we’ll probably look at international developments once more.

Also, I noticed that some of the pictures from earlier in the thread have broken, so I'll see to fixing those...
 
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An update! Huzzah!
Seriously though, it's good to take your time instead of rushing, good luck on the job hunt!
I don't know if you'd find it easier to post shorter updates more frequently or wait till you can drop a whole update at once like you have been doing. Your call, obviously.
Great content regardless, I wasn't expecting Japan to come out ahead against the Soviets at this point!

Unfortunately, these victories largely served to reinforce the delusion that Japan might win.
[evil Commonwealth sniggering from the bushes]
 
An update! Huzzah!
Seriously though, it's good to take your time instead of rushing, good luck on the job hunt!
Thanks!

I wasn't expecting Japan to come out ahead against the Soviets at this point!
yeah I was looking into OTL's Battles of Khalkhin Gol, and it was a pretty close run. The Japanese had a lot of issues with a convoluted command structure (the "Army" organization only being established near the end of the conflict) and poor leadership. I figured that having an "army" level organization from the get go to coordinate the Japanese response, especially one commanded by one of the IJA's better generals should thereby translate to a win. The exact method, envelopment, being the IJA's go to tactic.
 
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