If there’s a Soviet-Japanese non-aggression pact in 1939, then that would probably trigger all kinds of alarm bells in Germany and Poland. Though I doubt either side would launch an attack yet, since neither are really ready for it in 1939. However, there’s something that could potentially spice things up in this regard: As I mentioned in my post from last month, the bombing of the Bürgerbräukeller on November 8 1939 might well be successful ITTL, since without a war in Europe going on, it’s unlikely that Hitler would cut his annual speech at the event short. This would mean that Hitler and much of his inner circle would be taken out while preparations for a war with the Soviets are still ongoing. It could be even worse if there’s some kind of power struggle afterward, which might throw the whole German chain of command in chaos. There could be a struggle between the remaining Nazi leadership and the military, or between the party and the SS. Hell, maybe Hitler survives, but is in a coma for a while, and different factions try to get a hold of his comatose body, lol.

Not only that, but a Soviet-Japanese non-aggression pact would mean that the Soviet eastern flank is secure, while Japan is keeping Britain busy (and France is unlikely to do much without Britain), which means this could be a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for Stalin to strike first, and try to take out (at least) Poland while Germany is unable to effectively respond (or at least he thinks it is). Of course, I doubt that the Soviet army of 1939 would get much further than Warsaw, since I’m sure that the various opposing factions in Germany would quickly come to some kind of accord in the face of a Soviet invasion, but from the Soviet perspective that’s much preferable to waiting until the Germans have sorted themselves out and are ready to invade the USSR.

On the other hand, it would be kind of weird if a timeline titled ‘It's A Long Way To Nagasaki: The Anglo-Japanese War’ suddenly had a massive German-Soviet war that would be much bigger than the aforementioned Anglo-Japanese conflict, lol.
 
I don't see Stalin striking at Poland like that even with a Soviet-Japanese non-aggression pact. It isn't like even OTL's Soviet-Japanese non-aggression/neutrality pact of 1941 was envisioned as freeing Stalin up to conduct offensive operations against Germany (unless one believes Suvorov, though Suvorov's book is more of something Nazi apologists latch on to so as to claim that Hitler really was attacking the USSR pre-emptively). By most reasonable accounts Stalin was rather cautious, so his OTL 1941 pact with Japan was most likely to give himself the option to attack Germany if the opportunity presented itself in 1942-1943 after (presumably) Germany and the UK had exhausted each other in war.

Here he would be attacking Poland without securing Germany's non-involvement first? And with the French still able to render some kind of assistance to Poland? Can't see that. Heck he was always paranoid about the British, French and Germans teaming up/allying against him. Nothing has really changed in this TL to disabuse him of that fear (even though we here in 2021 know differently. In OTL 1938-1940 he didn't). He would likely fear that attacking Poland without securing German non-involvement or French abandonment of Poland could lead to France making temporary cause with Germany (especially because Britain is busy with Japan and at the end of the day he would fear the French leaders might remember that they are also anti-communists in addition to being anti-German) and lead to French pressure on the Poles to return some lands to Germany in return for Franco-German assistance.

Far more likely I think would be Stalin trying to put out feelers to whoever succeeds Hitler or to various factions if it descends into a fight for a non-aggression pact as well (again aimed at Poland). With a non-aggression pact with Japan and with Germany then the USSR is pretty much insulated from direct attack from East and West and can focus on Poland.

EDIT: Fantastic update as usual by the way @SealTheRealDeal
 
You know, if the IJA get their way and a war with the Soviet Union is declared; I could see Hitler "defend" the independence of Eastern European countries.

Arms and materials would be sent, perhaps in exchange for Germany's undesirables. (I say that in context of Hitler's mindset. In no way do I support the behavior or beliefs of the Nazis) This puts pressure on Stalin and could lead to internal issues within the Soviet Union.
 
Not only that, but a Soviet-Japanese non-aggression pact would mean that the Soviet eastern flank is secure, while Japan is keeping Britain busy (and France is unlikely to do much without Britain), which means this could be a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for Stalin to strike first, and try to take out (at least) Poland while Germany is unable to effectively respond (or at least he thinks it is). Of course, I doubt that the Soviet army of 1939 would get much further than Warsaw, since I’m sure that the various opposing factions in Germany would quickly come to some kind of accord in the face of a Soviet invasion, but from the Soviet perspective that’s much preferable to waiting until the Germans have sorted themselves out and are ready to invade the USSR.
I'm not sure it'd be that big of an opportunity, even if Germany can be guaranteed not to intervene. The Winter War period Red Army vs an intact Plish Army that can focus on just the Soviets would likely be a blood bath. And then there's the matter of Polands dedicated anti-Soviet alliance with Romania. The Soviets definitely aren't yet prepared to fight along almost their entire western frontier.

On the other hand, it would be kind of weird if a timeline titled ‘It's A Long Way To Nagasaki: The Anglo-Japanese War’ suddenly had a massive German-Soviet war that would be much bigger than the aforementioned Anglo-Japanese conflict, lol.
It could be

EDIT: Fantastic update as usual by the way @SealTheRealDeal
Thank you!

You know, if the IJA get their way and a war with the Soviet Union is declared; I could see Hitler "defend" the independence of Eastern European countries.
By Eastern European do you mean the Soviets?
 
18. News Of The Non-Combatant World
Stalin’s Nightmare: The Lwow Wargames

Stalin’s willingness to de-escalate matters with Japan, even at a loss, can largely be chocked up to developments in Europe. While Zhukov’s forces were being bagged up in the east, it became crystal clear just how real the threat posed by the German led block was.

June 1st represented the start of the colossal Lwow Wargames. These army level manoeuvres in eastern Poland involved four Polish corps, and a number of brigade sized formations from Hungary and Romania. These were joined by an even more diverse horde of observers from the UK, Belgium, Turkey, France, Italy, Estonia, Latvia, Germany, and even the recently reunited Spain.[1]

Ostensibly these manoeuvres were meant to simulate a response to an invasion of Poland by “Green Force”. However, the actual manoeuvres focused substantially on the prospect of a mobile counter attack, rather than any defensive actions by “Blue Force”. Furthermore, when the Green Force was encircled around Lwow the mobile elements of Blue Force pressed on, leaving only a smaller siege force to deal with the city. This strongly indicated that the tactics being tested were offensive in nature, and not meant to be employed on Polish soil.[2]

Besides offensive maneuvers, the war games were an opportunity to practice interoperability, not just between the participating nations but also between land and air assets. Although, some of the German observers were critical of the lack of dive bombers.

Poland's German guests also took the opportunity to assess the quality of Poland’s infrastructure. Western and central Poland had a fairly dense road and rail network, with plenty of redundant capacity. The eastern regions however were far sparser. In the southeast, and especially around Lwow, the situation wasn’t too dire, but the northeast in particular had atrophied due to the lack of commerce with both the USSR and Lithuania. Furthermore, the vast Pripet Marshes created a logistical dead zone, for which there was no solution. Some noted that this could be to Poland's advantage, as it reduced the amount of border Poland had to defend, but others noted that the lack of infrastructure in Poland's northeast and southeast regions was made all the worse due to the lack of north-south infrastructure. One of the Heer officers in attendance suggested that Germany might be willing to invest in Eastern Poland's infrastructure in exchange for Poland consenting to Germany reintegrating the Free City of Danzig, but was swiftly reminded by one of their colleagues that the Heer was not involved in policy-making.


Polish infrastructure in 1939.

The final opportunity offered by the wargames was a social one. While merely a sideshow to the main event, there was a series of functions held at various manor homes around Lwow. These gave a rare opportunity for the officers of the various nations to mingle outside of an official capacity. Allowing the German officers to directly interact with the men who maintained the military dictatorships in Poland, Hungary, and Spain,[3] had an immediate impact on the Heer. The Germans did their best to not be caught salivating over the situation in Poland and Hungary, where the coup plotters had aged like fine wine into internationally respected elder statesmen. This strongly contrasted with what they had previously observed of the Italians, their army crumbling under the weight of far too many political appointees. The extent to which this undermined the Heer’s “apolitical” traditions is perhaps best summed up by an apocryphal statement by Generaloberst Walther von Brauchitsch to General der Gebirgstruppe Günther von Kluge, “I’ve seen where we’re going, and I know where I’d like to end up.”


Renting Security for the Eastern Flank: Soviet Negotiators in Seoul

With Poland looking ready to descend on Moscow, Stalin was understandably very willing to cut a deal with Japan. Molotov’s instructions were to secure any peace that maintained the territorial integrity of the USSR, and importantly not make the USSR appear weak. The second of those requirements was nearly a lost cause from the outset.

Japan’s Foriegn Minister, Hachirō Arita, saw the negotiations within a framework of building a Japan-centric new order in East Asia. Everything down to the location of the negotiations was carefully calculated. It was hoped that hosting the USSR’s representatives in Seoul would discredit and demoralize the Communist Party of Korea.


1930s Seoul, known as Keijo under the Japanese.

During these negotiations Minister Arita was very keen on the exact language, specifically where it concerned the common frontiers of the Soviet Union, Mongolian People’s Republic, Empire of Japan, and Empire of Great Manchuria. Arita recognized that he was unlikely to get the USSR to open an embassy in Hsinking. Yet, getting them to sight a treaty with them, one which explicitly names the Empire of Great Manchuria and concerns its sovereignty and territorial integrity, constituted diplomatic recognition.

On the subject of a non-aggression pact, Arita’s proposals were a compromise between those of the Army and Navy. He sought, and ultimately received a “rental agreement”. The Japanese observance of the non-aggression clauses would be conditional on the Japanese being able to order and receive up to 400,000 tons of oil each month at sub-market value.[4]

Additionally, a joint border monitoring force was established. As a single concession to Soviet honour, the treaty would be given a title that didn’t allude to the recent conflict. The “Agreement Concerning Commerce, Common Borders, and Cohabitation in North Asia” was signed in Seoul on the 4th of July and ratified by the relevant governments in the following weeks.

The Mongols were perhaps the most upset about the treaty, given it voided many of their territorial claims. That it didn’t affect their claims further south and west was their one consolation. Not that they could act on them.


The Italy of Asia: From Siam to Thailand

Siam had had a tumultuous time during the 1930s. In 1933 General Phraya Phahol seized power in a military coup. Since then the country had endured rebellion, partial redemocratization, political crisis, and in December of 1938 the dictator stepped down. His replacement, Field Marshal Plaek Phibunsongkhram (Phibun for short)[5] retrenched the dictatorship and set about modernizing the country along the lines of Fascist Italy.

While his predecessor encouraged the adoption of the Roman salute, the Phibun encouraged the adoption of western clothes and utensils. More importantly, Phibun also pursued industrialization through autarky, raising new tariffs and involving the government in the creation of new industries. He also fostered nationalism and even supported irredentist claims.


Period leaflet showing non-permitted and permitted dress.

On June 24th, he issued the first of his Cultural Mandates. Here he clarified that the country was to be exclusively referred to as Thailand, and that it’s people were to be exclusively known as Thais.

To the surprise of Phibun and many others this proved to be a more complicated matter than Iran’s name change earlier in the decade. Lord Halifax politely declined on the grounds that the name suggested territorial claims to much of Northern Burma.[6] The Republic of China followed suit in protest of the Siamese government’s open persecution of the nation’s Chinese minority.

Phibun did not take this slight sitting down, and on the 3rd of July issued another mandate, this time issuing proscriptions against engaging in international business. In particular it equated business with the British and their subjects to treason. Siam’s name would remain a subject of contention for some time.


Laying Down Hulls in the Post-Treaty Era: South Dakota Reborn

Let us return now to America, whose military had thus far been closely watching the war in Asia. With glacial speed, the military establishment and the nascent interventionist faction began producing tangible results. As with all products of American politics, it occurred primarily on the basis of personalities and circumstances.

The key personality in this instance was Assistant Secretary of the Navy Charles Edison, son of Thomas Edison. Edison had an interest in battleships and, with the declining health of the penny pinching Secretary of the Navy[7] and the implosion of the treaty system, he was well positioned to get his way.

It wasn’t long after the start of the Anglo-Japanese War that he ordered a reassessment of the hulls to be laid down in 1939. The assumption that war between two of the Treaty powers meant a defacto end to the regulations of the treaty guided the initial design of a greatly lengthened ship that would be capable of 33 knots to keep up with the carriers. The decisive influence of shell size and naval gunnery during the Battle Off Borneo however caused a change of course.

The revised South Dakota design of 1939 very closely resembled the 1920 South Dakota design. Having been lengthened to accommodate a fourth triple turret,[8] the design now weighed in at an eye watering 47,000 tonnes. Getting the rest of DC to approve such an escalation, and accompanying price increase, would be a tough sell.


An illustration of a triple 16" turret.

Throughout April and May Edison pressed the President on the need to prevent a gunnery gap, met with the relevant House committees, and quietly corresponded with representatives of the Neo-Preparedness Movement.[9] As the one who first invoked the escalator clause, President Roosevelt didn’t need much prodding to lend his public support. Similarly, the Neo-Prepardness Movement was willing to support anything that got America closer to a war footing. Congress and the Senate however still had powerful isolationists, pacifists, and penny pinchers. As the scheduled laying down date for the previously planned South Dakotas neared, it increasingly looked like the improved designs would have to be shelved, at least for the time being.

Unexpectedly, Poland provided the 11th hour miracle. The international section of every newspaper was almost exclusively occupied with the Lwow War Games and the accompanying naval manoeuvres for nearly the entire month of June. The few stories successfully wrestling page space away from depictions and descriptions of the proceedings were usually focused on the actual battles being fought in Manchuria and the Indo-Pacific. Letters by concerned citizens flooded into the halls of power. Perhaps the best illustration of the public’s distress came on the 15th of June when outspoken non-interventionist[10] Thomas E. Dewey admitted to a reporter that American neutrality would be contingent on America being strong enough to be taken seriously.

The time seemed right. The navy’s ability to fully make use of the escalator clause was put to the floor the following week. After a few rounds of impassioned speeches and a half baked filibuster attempt by an isolationist, the motion passed by a narrow margin.

BB-57 South Dakota would be laid down in accordance with the new design on July 5th.


---

[1] Spain’s contribution was limited to a handful of officers and the heavy cruiser Canarias, yet it played an outsized role in the games. Green Force’s tactics were based on those employed by the Republicans during the Spanish Civil War, and, with 34 victories under its belt during the Spanish Civil War, the Canarias was made flagship of the Blue Force during the accompanying naval manoeuvres in the Baltic.

[2] As its political and emotional importance to the Polish nation would make retaking Lwow priority 1 in any actual war.

[3] While Spain was officially Fascist, the officers at Lwow made no effort to maintain the facade, and openly equated the SS and MVSN to the amateur militias they had humoured during the Civil War.

[4] The USSR’s ability to meet these deliveries while in a truly life or death struggle was doubtful.

[5] or, if you prefer the local nickname, Marshal P.

[6] In fact, the Burman nationalists briefly ceased their protests, strikes, and other efforts to hinder Britain’s war effort, and instead rioted against the Thai minority. The nationalist fervour died down somewhat after some segments of the nationalist’s leadership cooperated with the British to reign in the mob.

[7] Claude A. Swanson.

[8] There was also a scheme to keep it at 3 turrets, but to replace the planned 16”/45 guns with the 16”/50 guns left over from the 1920s South Dakotas and Lexingtons, yet these were soon appropriated for shore batteries.

[9] A catch all term for the China Lobby, Macarthur’s Philippine Lobby, Wendell Wilke’s Interventionist Lobby, and certain Atlanticists.

[10] who usually had a pretty firm read on the “pulse” of the populous.

A/N:
 
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This is a very intriguing update; it’ll be interesting to see how the tantalizing prospect of a pure military junta might provide a boost to insubordinate elements in the German army. Without the audacious victories Hitler took credit for IOTL, they’re already less cowed than they became later on. However, I can also see some overeager officers turning this into a very messy situation of civil conflict and repeated purges.
 
An interesting update on everything happening around the periphery of the war!
The influence of the naval battles to make a revived SoDak a psudo-Montana is a very logical one, something that I don't think I've seen in any other timeline. As they say, timing is everything, and 1938 is not yet time for carrier aviation to show its potential.
Thomas E. Dewey admitted to a reporter that American neutrality would be contingent on America being strong enough to be taken seriously.
I'm rather in agreement with Dewey here, Old Roosevelt's policy of 'speak softly and carry a big stick' allows America to play the role of the Great Neutral: happy to stay aloof, but must be considered, and woe to any who give her reason to stop being neutral.
 

Deleted member 94680

Another fascinating update. So glad this TL is carrying on.

Allowing the German officers to directly interact with the men who maintained the military dictatorships in Poland, Hungary, and Spain, had an immediate impact on the Heer. The Germans practically salivated over the situation in Poland and Hungary, where the coup plotters had aged like fine wine into internationally respected elder statesmen... best summed up by an apocryphal statement by Generaloberst Walther von Brauchitsch to General der Gebirgstruppe Günther von Kluge, “I’ve seen where we’re going, and I know where I’d like to end up.”
Well this doesn’t dangle the possibility of something intriguing happening further down the line at all...

I’m not sure Brauchitsch is the man to be saying those things, given his OTL track record, but it’s interesting nonetheless.
 

Deleted member 2186

Having read the entire TL it looks good, so keep up the work.
 
This is a very intriguing update; it’ll be interesting to see how the tantalizing prospect of a pure military junta might provide a boost to insubordinate elements in the German army. Without the audacious victories Hitler took credit for IOTL, they’re already less cowed than they became later on. However, I can also see some overeager officers turning this into a very messy situation of civil conflict and repeated purges.
Indeed, the Heer is going to have its work cut out for it trying to keep a lid on any prospective coup. Hitler had ears everywhere after all.

An interesting update on everything happening around the periphery of the war!
The influence of the naval battles to make a revived SoDak a psudo-Montana is a very logical one, something that I don't think I've seen in any other timeline. As they say, timing is everything, and 1938 is not yet time for carrier aviation to show its potential.
Yeah I was initially unsure of what I'd have the Americans doing this update. And then I when I was watching a video from either Drachinifel or Battleship New Jersey and it occurred to me that America had twice designed but not built a super battleship with 4 triple 16" guns (1920 SoDak and Montana). I then got thinking about if it'd make sense to them to go down that route (or a somewhat more restrained version of said route) in my TL, and yeah it seemed sensible enough.

I’m not sure Brauchitsch is the man to be saying those things, given his OTL track record, but it’s interesting nonetheless.
That's more or less the point. One of the usual suspects moaning about how the Nazis suck would be just another day at the office. A very high ranking compliant officer voicing such sentiments to one of the usual suspects represents a more significant shift in the ethos of the Heer.

In either case I did note that it's apocryphal, so it could just be part of a retroactive inclusion of a widely respected higher up into the scheme.

Having read the entire TL it looks good, so keep up the work.
Thanks!
 
One of these Alt-SoDaks vs a Yamato would be a sight, though it would be unlikely between the strain possibly keeping Japan from finishing the latter and if they are beaten by the British I doubt they'll fight the Americans next.
 
I was just thinking this war might end with Yamato and Musashi cancelled before completion. Yamato won't be finished until 1940 OTL, depending on how the war goes all that steel might be needed for rush construction of destroyers before the colossi are ready to be launched, much less fitted out.
If this is the case the USA would earn the distinction of having built the world's largest battleships (also assuming the Soviet Union class is likewise cancelled as OTL) and have it still fit through the Panama Canal.
 

Deleted member 94680

Indeed, the Heer is going to have its work cut out for it trying to keep a lid on any prospective coup. Hitler had ears everywhere after all.
Ears everywhere but they relied on informants to a large degree. After July ‘44 it’s interesting to see just how many officers knew something was up, but hadn’t done anything about it.
That's more or less the point. One of the usual suspects moaning about how the Nazis suck would be just another day at the office. A very high ranking compliant officer voicing such sentiments to one of the usual suspects represents a more significant shift in the ethos of the Heer.

In either case I did note that it's apocryphal, so it could just be part of a retroactive inclusion of a widely respected higher up into the scheme.
Ah, I see. The plot thickens...
 
I was just thinking this war might end with Yamato and Musashi cancelled before completion. Yamato won't be finished until 1940 OTL, depending on how the war goes all that steel might be needed for rush construction of destroyers before the colossi are ready to be launched, much less fitted out.
If this is the case the USA would earn the distinction of having built the world's largest battleships (also assuming the Soviet Union class is likewise cancelled as OTL) and have it still fit through the Panama Canal.
Unless the war ends with the IJN sunk or surrendered. Then with no Japanese threat the US battleships might get cancelled as Congress decides they are no longer needed.
 
Would the Japanese really press the Soviets that hard in the negotiations for a non-aggression pact? I mean they managed to defeat the Soviets in the skirmishes but at the moment it's 1939 and the Japanese have been engaged in a war with China and the British Empire from 1938 without there been any general war in Europe for them to take advantage of in having distracted (or in some cases defeated) European colonial powers. So one would think that they would actually want such a pact almost as much as the Soviets (in essence just having the Soviet and Japanese positions switched from OTL) so they can focus of China and the British Empire and deal with the Soviets later.

The idea of the Soviets supplying the Japanese as part of the pact makes eminent sense in the context the Japanese find themselves in here since it means that they get supplies to help prosecute the wars against China and the British Empire.

Great update as usual and very interesting tidbits about the Heer and Thailand.
 
I was just thinking this war might end with Yamato and Musashi cancelled before completion. Yamato won't be finished until 1940 OTL, depending on how the war goes all that steel might be needed for rush construction of destroyers before the colossi are ready to be launched, much less fitted out.
If this is the case the USA would earn the distinction of having built the world's largest battleships (also assuming the Soviet Union class is likewise cancelled as OTL) and have it still fit through the Panama Canal.
for all the use battleships will be they might as well be the worlds largest Submarine, a super Surcouf., only less buoyant.....
 
Well, perhaps the Wehrmacht will end up avoiding the worst excesses of OTL Germany. One can hope, anyway.

That prohibition on international business is probably not the best possible move Thailand can make. I wonder if they can pull off a Spanish Miracle later.

Interesting post about the Lwow maneuvers. Though one potential complicating factor is the ongoing low-level insurrection of Ukrainians against Poles in that area, and the ongoing Polish effort to forcibly assimilate/displace the Ukrainians. Probably something that won't bother Poland's allies overmuch, but still potentially embarrassing.
 
for all the use battleships will be they might as well be the worlds largest Submarine, a super Surcouf., only less buoyant.....

Eh, they'll still get at least a decade's use out of them. Not great, but not the worst.

People tend to have this mistaken impression that carriers just went from decent in the 30s to completely eclipsing battleships with nothing in-between.

It wasn't really until the 50s that Battleships were completely eclipsed by carriers. The Pacific war showed what was to come which is why ship design moved away from them before they became completely worthless. You don't build your navy for now, you build it for 10 years from now.
 
for all the use battleships will be they might as well be the worlds largest Submarine, a super Surcouf., only less buoyant.....
Only reason HMS Vanguard was finished was that until the Sea Venom came around ( first flight 1951 ) the FAA was not rated all weather. So till the mid 50's battleships had a limited role at least in the Atlantic when the weather closed in.
 
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