Britain did not need US production to outbulid Japan It can do this with ease if not fighting Germany
It's A Long Way To Nagasaki: The Anglo-Japanese War
- Thread starter SealTheRealDeal
- Start date
This is how the logic ( ie self delusion ) would possibly flow.
Japan to threaten Singapore needs to threaten Malaya which needs Thailand to be on its side.
Only way Thailand is joining on Japan's side is if Indochina is in Japanese control.
Therefore the French need to allow Japanese troops into southern Indochina.
Spirit of Nippon is supreme, weak French will fold if challenged
Cowardly superiors must be removed if they try and deter the glorious destiny
For the Emperor! Banzai!
Ttl they started an entire war simply because they thought it would be too much bother to avoid it.
More exactly, the other option was for the country to back down from China and be internationally humiliated, and the involved politicians to lose their personal honor and soon be assassinated.
26. China’s November
Southern Clashes: The Battle for China’s Principle Lifeline
On the 12th of November, the Imperial Japanese Army was on the move again. The IJA’s 5th Division silenced the final defenders of Nanning in the early hours of the morning, opening the whole of Guangxi to attack. What remained of the 38th Group Army under Xu Tingyao withdrew west and northeast to the Kunlun Pass to guard the Kunming–Haiphong Railway, ceding China’s southern coast to the Japanese, allowing the 21st Army to concentrate its forces as it saw fit.
In the following days, the Japanese further reinforced their positions in the south with two independent brigades allocated to rear area security, and the IJA’s 21st Aviation Corps sent to provide air support. Further, in recognition of its prolonged isolation from the rest of the China Expeditionary Army and the importance of its mission, its command was reorganized as the South China Area Army, and its 5 divisions and assortment of smaller formations were divided between the 21st Army and the newly established 22nd Army.
The Chinese also made an effort to reorganize in preparation for the impending clash over China’s main link to the rest of the world. Xu, being the pioneer of China’s armoured forces, had made effective use of his considerable fleet[1] of tanks and armoured cars in the previous engagements in and around Naning, but these forces were faltering now that the Soviets had ceased supplying replacement vehicles and spare parts. Guangxi’s regional warlord, Bai Chongxi, talked Chiang into allowing Xu and the Mechanized 200th Division to be rotated out of the 38th Group Army. The Kunlun Pass wasn’t ideal tank country to begin with, and the risk of China’s nascent armoured force going the way of its German-trained divisions in Shanghai a year prior was too great a risk. The 200th would sit out what was potentially one of the most important battles of the war, preparing a mobile defense of the railway if needed, and slowly rebuilding with British supplied vehicles. Command of the 38th Group Army then fell to Bai Chongxi, and the 200th division was replaced by the elite 1st Infantry division and the two remaining, severely understrength, German trained divisions.
On the 24th, the IJA’s 5th and 18th divisions began their attack on the Chinese forces holding the pass. IJA doctrine for assaulting an enemy strong point that couldn’t be enveloped could be broken into two categories “Kishu” meanta sudden surprise attack with minimal support, and “Kyoshu” indicated a well prepared attack coordinated with the artillery. The time spent securing the connection to Canton meant the opportunity for a Kishu operation had passed as the Chinese were now well entrenched and fully anticipating an attack. This might have caused some difficulty as Japanese artillery was often at a range disadvantage against the pieces imported by the Chinese. However the promotion to Area Army came with a small allocation of Type 89 150mm cannons which could outrange all but the Soviet 122mm guns in Chinese service, and those were largely out of ammo by this stage. The shells began falling on Chinese 2nd and 3rd line positions and within a minute Japanese assault companies emerged from the inky night to enmesh themselves within the first line of Chinese defences.
The Type 89 15cm gun was a relative rarity in Japanese service but played a critical role in IJA operations.
The day-long frenetic struggle that followed saw the relatively intact first line of defense trade hands multiple times. To Japanese surprise, the troops of Bai Chongxi remained disciplined and in good spirits, very much unlike nearly every other NRA formation encountered to this point. As the limited supply of 150mm ammunition dwindled the Japanese conceded the trenchline back to its original occupants. Bai Chongxi retained firm control of the pass.
Silly Season: The Generalissimo’s Personnel Changes
Throughout November, the Chinese government in Chongqing was experiencing a shake up of sorts. Colonel Adrian Carton de Wiart returned from a lengthy inspection of the Whampoa academy[2] with a list of recommendations the length of his remaining arm, and found many things had changed since his arrival in October. Most astonishingly, he was no longer the city’s only one-armed British veteran who had spent much of the 20s and 30s abroad.
Major General Frank ‘One Arm’ Sutton was an engineer and industrialist with a history in China. He had owned the factory that had supplied the Fengtian clique with mortars during the 1920s, and famously attempted to sell tractor tanks to the Nationalist Government in 1932. Since then, he had been busy managing a mine in Korea, and had only narrowly escaped Japanese territory when the Battle of Hong Kong began. After a brief period cooling his heels in Hanoi, he was contacted by agents of the Kuomintang requesting his assistance in re-establishing the Chinese arms industry. Thus far, his work in Chongqing amounted to establishing a production line for .303 ammunition[3] and a resumption of his Stokes mortar business, but already he was scaling up for other projects.
"One-Arm Sutton" actually still had most of his other arm.
Some of those other projects included the preparation of unmarked weapons for Dai Li. Dai Li had been educated in the Chinese classics, and spent time as a gangster and gambler in Shanghai before attending the Whampoa academy and ingratiating himself into Chiang’s inner circle, advancing to be the head of Army Intelligence after playing a leading role in the purge of communists in Canton. Despite his modest background he excelled in his role, building a highly efficient and professional intelligence agency under the guise of the Investigation and Statistics Bureau. At this early stage, his organization was one of the main recipients of British financial aid and material aid, and he proved his commitment to making good on this investment by resigning his other post as head of the Blue Shirts Society. He stepped up aid to, and coordination of, the KMT aligned guerillas in occupied territory, infiltrated the Japanese-controlled Opium trade, and identified a rival intelligence asset. Throughout November he courted Triads, established new cells in Guangdong, and publicized a 6 million Pound Sterling bounty on Kenji Doihara’s head.
De Wiart’s return enabled one further personnel change. Zhang Zhizhong had long been a trusted subordinate in Chiang’s army and government. However, his merits as a leader were few and his track record included wasting away the NRA’s best formations during the disastrous Battle of Shanghai, mishandling the refugee situation in Hunan,[4] and in his brief stint as Chairman of the Military Commission[5] he had proven excessively pliant to the Generalissimo’s ideas and had a loose grasp of his own subordinates. Chiang had refused recommendations from the British, his other generals, and the warlords to sack his dependable subordinate. However, it was clear that Zhang Zhizhong’s peacetime dependability had not translated into wartime performance. Evaluating and enacting the agenda for reform at Whampoa Academy presented an opportunity to give him a meaningful role befitting his rank, which would also remove him from the day to day conduct of the war.
Northern Soul Searching: The Opportunist Turns Left Four Times
Wang Jingwei and Chiang Kai-Shek, respectively (and fittingly) left and right in this image.
Wang Jingwei had been a long time rival to Chiang Kai-Shek for leadership of the Kuomintang. In the 20s and early 30s he had tried to leverage the Soviets and Chinese Communists against Chiang. More recently he’d cut ties with Chiang’s government on the grounds that Chiang had sought Soviet aid against Japan, and fled first to Hanoi then to Japanese occupied Shanghai where he had begun talks to collaborate with Japan to save China from Soviet domination. He was an odd man of infirm character to say the least.
Being in Shanghai came with the added benefit of being able to get international newspapers from the French and International settlements still free from Japanese rule. From these he got the distinct sense that Japan was not a horse he wanted to hitch himself to. Further, Japanese and foreign publications alike were frequent to characterize the “Agreement Concerning Commerce, Common Borders, and Cohabitation in North Asia” as a Soviet-Japanese partnership, or even alliance, invalidating his main reason for collaboration. As a result, talks had already been broken off in September, leaving him to wander the occupied regions of China, narrowly donging a number of attempts on his life by agents of Dai Li.
At some point during these travels, his mind seems to have looped back around to using the Communists to crush Chiang. In November, he re-approached the Japanese authorities, offering to go to Moscow to reunite with old contacts, and convince Stalin that Chiang’s removal was desired by the people of China and a prerequisite to any lasting peace and progress in the far-east.
The Japanese foreign ministry was aware Wang was playing an angle. Foreign minister Hachirō Arita, however, was painfully aware that the changing situation in Europe had put his security and economic arrangements on the clock. Salvaging them, or at least delaying their demise would require a gamble. Both politicians had vested interests, and gambled that they intersected more than they diverged.
Wang’s new whereabouts would become known to the world when he was photographed in the foreign dignitaries’ gallery overlooking the 1939 October Revolution Day Parade.
—
A/N:
We now return to our regularly scheduled programming.
[1] by 1930s Chinese standards
[2] located in Chengdu at this time
[3] a domestic munitions supply for British weapons was desired even though the British supplied a considerable amount of ammo as well
[4] Reports that he had nearly torched Changsha in a panic at the start of the “Early Thaw Operation” did not help his case.
[5] Chiang’s aid-de-camp and functional second in command of the National Revolutionary Army
On the 12th of November, the Imperial Japanese Army was on the move again. The IJA’s 5th Division silenced the final defenders of Nanning in the early hours of the morning, opening the whole of Guangxi to attack. What remained of the 38th Group Army under Xu Tingyao withdrew west and northeast to the Kunlun Pass to guard the Kunming–Haiphong Railway, ceding China’s southern coast to the Japanese, allowing the 21st Army to concentrate its forces as it saw fit.
In the following days, the Japanese further reinforced their positions in the south with two independent brigades allocated to rear area security, and the IJA’s 21st Aviation Corps sent to provide air support. Further, in recognition of its prolonged isolation from the rest of the China Expeditionary Army and the importance of its mission, its command was reorganized as the South China Area Army, and its 5 divisions and assortment of smaller formations were divided between the 21st Army and the newly established 22nd Army.
The Chinese also made an effort to reorganize in preparation for the impending clash over China’s main link to the rest of the world. Xu, being the pioneer of China’s armoured forces, had made effective use of his considerable fleet[1] of tanks and armoured cars in the previous engagements in and around Naning, but these forces were faltering now that the Soviets had ceased supplying replacement vehicles and spare parts. Guangxi’s regional warlord, Bai Chongxi, talked Chiang into allowing Xu and the Mechanized 200th Division to be rotated out of the 38th Group Army. The Kunlun Pass wasn’t ideal tank country to begin with, and the risk of China’s nascent armoured force going the way of its German-trained divisions in Shanghai a year prior was too great a risk. The 200th would sit out what was potentially one of the most important battles of the war, preparing a mobile defense of the railway if needed, and slowly rebuilding with British supplied vehicles. Command of the 38th Group Army then fell to Bai Chongxi, and the 200th division was replaced by the elite 1st Infantry division and the two remaining, severely understrength, German trained divisions.
On the 24th, the IJA’s 5th and 18th divisions began their attack on the Chinese forces holding the pass. IJA doctrine for assaulting an enemy strong point that couldn’t be enveloped could be broken into two categories “Kishu” meanta sudden surprise attack with minimal support, and “Kyoshu” indicated a well prepared attack coordinated with the artillery. The time spent securing the connection to Canton meant the opportunity for a Kishu operation had passed as the Chinese were now well entrenched and fully anticipating an attack. This might have caused some difficulty as Japanese artillery was often at a range disadvantage against the pieces imported by the Chinese. However the promotion to Area Army came with a small allocation of Type 89 150mm cannons which could outrange all but the Soviet 122mm guns in Chinese service, and those were largely out of ammo by this stage. The shells began falling on Chinese 2nd and 3rd line positions and within a minute Japanese assault companies emerged from the inky night to enmesh themselves within the first line of Chinese defences.
The Type 89 15cm gun was a relative rarity in Japanese service but played a critical role in IJA operations.
The day-long frenetic struggle that followed saw the relatively intact first line of defense trade hands multiple times. To Japanese surprise, the troops of Bai Chongxi remained disciplined and in good spirits, very much unlike nearly every other NRA formation encountered to this point. As the limited supply of 150mm ammunition dwindled the Japanese conceded the trenchline back to its original occupants. Bai Chongxi retained firm control of the pass.
Silly Season: The Generalissimo’s Personnel Changes
Throughout November, the Chinese government in Chongqing was experiencing a shake up of sorts. Colonel Adrian Carton de Wiart returned from a lengthy inspection of the Whampoa academy[2] with a list of recommendations the length of his remaining arm, and found many things had changed since his arrival in October. Most astonishingly, he was no longer the city’s only one-armed British veteran who had spent much of the 20s and 30s abroad.
Major General Frank ‘One Arm’ Sutton was an engineer and industrialist with a history in China. He had owned the factory that had supplied the Fengtian clique with mortars during the 1920s, and famously attempted to sell tractor tanks to the Nationalist Government in 1932. Since then, he had been busy managing a mine in Korea, and had only narrowly escaped Japanese territory when the Battle of Hong Kong began. After a brief period cooling his heels in Hanoi, he was contacted by agents of the Kuomintang requesting his assistance in re-establishing the Chinese arms industry. Thus far, his work in Chongqing amounted to establishing a production line for .303 ammunition[3] and a resumption of his Stokes mortar business, but already he was scaling up for other projects.
"One-Arm Sutton" actually still had most of his other arm.
Some of those other projects included the preparation of unmarked weapons for Dai Li. Dai Li had been educated in the Chinese classics, and spent time as a gangster and gambler in Shanghai before attending the Whampoa academy and ingratiating himself into Chiang’s inner circle, advancing to be the head of Army Intelligence after playing a leading role in the purge of communists in Canton. Despite his modest background he excelled in his role, building a highly efficient and professional intelligence agency under the guise of the Investigation and Statistics Bureau. At this early stage, his organization was one of the main recipients of British financial aid and material aid, and he proved his commitment to making good on this investment by resigning his other post as head of the Blue Shirts Society. He stepped up aid to, and coordination of, the KMT aligned guerillas in occupied territory, infiltrated the Japanese-controlled Opium trade, and identified a rival intelligence asset. Throughout November he courted Triads, established new cells in Guangdong, and publicized a 6 million Pound Sterling bounty on Kenji Doihara’s head.
De Wiart’s return enabled one further personnel change. Zhang Zhizhong had long been a trusted subordinate in Chiang’s army and government. However, his merits as a leader were few and his track record included wasting away the NRA’s best formations during the disastrous Battle of Shanghai, mishandling the refugee situation in Hunan,[4] and in his brief stint as Chairman of the Military Commission[5] he had proven excessively pliant to the Generalissimo’s ideas and had a loose grasp of his own subordinates. Chiang had refused recommendations from the British, his other generals, and the warlords to sack his dependable subordinate. However, it was clear that Zhang Zhizhong’s peacetime dependability had not translated into wartime performance. Evaluating and enacting the agenda for reform at Whampoa Academy presented an opportunity to give him a meaningful role befitting his rank, which would also remove him from the day to day conduct of the war.
Northern Soul Searching: The Opportunist Turns Left Four Times
Wang Jingwei and Chiang Kai-Shek, respectively (and fittingly) left and right in this image.
Wang Jingwei had been a long time rival to Chiang Kai-Shek for leadership of the Kuomintang. In the 20s and early 30s he had tried to leverage the Soviets and Chinese Communists against Chiang. More recently he’d cut ties with Chiang’s government on the grounds that Chiang had sought Soviet aid against Japan, and fled first to Hanoi then to Japanese occupied Shanghai where he had begun talks to collaborate with Japan to save China from Soviet domination. He was an odd man of infirm character to say the least.
Being in Shanghai came with the added benefit of being able to get international newspapers from the French and International settlements still free from Japanese rule. From these he got the distinct sense that Japan was not a horse he wanted to hitch himself to. Further, Japanese and foreign publications alike were frequent to characterize the “Agreement Concerning Commerce, Common Borders, and Cohabitation in North Asia” as a Soviet-Japanese partnership, or even alliance, invalidating his main reason for collaboration. As a result, talks had already been broken off in September, leaving him to wander the occupied regions of China, narrowly donging a number of attempts on his life by agents of Dai Li.
At some point during these travels, his mind seems to have looped back around to using the Communists to crush Chiang. In November, he re-approached the Japanese authorities, offering to go to Moscow to reunite with old contacts, and convince Stalin that Chiang’s removal was desired by the people of China and a prerequisite to any lasting peace and progress in the far-east.
The Japanese foreign ministry was aware Wang was playing an angle. Foreign minister Hachirō Arita, however, was painfully aware that the changing situation in Europe had put his security and economic arrangements on the clock. Salvaging them, or at least delaying their demise would require a gamble. Both politicians had vested interests, and gambled that they intersected more than they diverged.
Wang’s new whereabouts would become known to the world when he was photographed in the foreign dignitaries’ gallery overlooking the 1939 October Revolution Day Parade.
—
A/N:
We now return to our regularly scheduled programming.
[1] by 1930s Chinese standards
[2] located in Chengdu at this time
[3] a domestic munitions supply for British weapons was desired even though the British supplied a considerable amount of ammo as well
[4] Reports that he had nearly torched Changsha in a panic at the start of the “Early Thaw Operation” did not help his case.
[5] Chiang’s aid-de-camp and functional second in command of the National Revolutionary Army
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Thank you!
Like iOTL it's not on the frontline, but it and Chongqing are still subject to a Japanese bombing campaign and there is a large areal war in the skies over Sichuan (which should make for good material when I next touch on China).
Actually, I think he was referencing Avatar the Last Airbender, where there is a group of spies called the Dai Li.
Garrison
Donor
If you look at UK output during WW2 they are easily able to outproduce Japan. The US might settle for the same sort of embargo they imposed on Japan after the occupation of Indochina, which would be crippling for Japanese industry.
Nah, I doubt the British have the desire for something as hugely costly as that.
I suspect the British Empire's strategy will be to blockade and bomb the Japanese into submission. Bobomer Command will be chomping at the bit, and the Royal Navy will probably reign supreme eventually.
Or, the Empire could offer the Chinese free passage for an return visit to Japan.
I believe that it was entirely possible (and was done OTL IIRC) to cripple the food distribution logistics of the Home Islands from the air. The system was still very canal dependent. Canals can be aerially mined.
Add in the catastrophic inability of Japan to maintain an Industrial economy without imports, and you can utterly defeat Japan without even having to land so much as a single British Grenadier upon the Home Islands themselves.
Capture Formosa (Taiwan), seize suitable ports upon the western shores of the Sea of Japan. Sever the connections between the mainland and the Home Islands. Strangle the Kwantung Army and its ilk upon the vine, with the RoC, British Equipped and trained, doing most of the dying.
Maybe give Bomber Harris Okinawa as a birthday present.
...Right. There's definitely that. How long is it until Japan runs out of Oil?
Add in the catastrophic inability of Japan to maintain an Industrial economy without imports, and you can utterly defeat Japan without even having to land so much as a single British Grenadier upon the Home Islands themselves.
Capture Formosa (Taiwan), seize suitable ports upon the western shores of the Sea of Japan. Sever the connections between the mainland and the Home Islands. Strangle the Kwantung Army and its ilk upon the vine, with the RoC, British Equipped and trained, doing most of the dying.
Maybe give Bomber Harris Okinawa as a birthday present.
...Right. There's definitely that. How long is it until Japan runs out of Oil?