It's A Long Way To Nagasaki: The Anglo-Japanese War

[SealTheRealDeal]

In 1938 the world had two sources of tension.

In Europe Spain was in the second year of its civil war and a embryonic Fascist block was coalescing around the Kingdom of Italy and the ever aggressive German Third Reich. A general European war was feared by all: As diplomats raced to defuse conflicts national armament industries received their contracts and shook out the rust that had accumulated since the last war.

With the colonial powers occupied by matters closer to home the Empire of Japan acted with a free hand on the other side of the planet. The previous year it had unleashed its armies upon the Republic of China and in a series of stunning campaigns it had captured Beijing, Shanghai, and even the Chinese capital of Nanjing. Throughout 1938 it had plunged deeper still into China and found its forces increasingly coming up against National Revolutionary Army formations armed with western sourced equipment. With much of China’s industrial areas having already fallen it was determined that these imports must have been China’s last life line.[1]


Where the World Went Awry: Yet Another Upstart Officer

Since the late 1920s the Imperial Japanese Army had a persistent problem on its hands. The lower ranks of its officer corps, especially those who had served in the Kwantung Leased Territory, had embraced a militantly radical understanding of civic duty. On a number of occasions these officers had acted without orders, assassinating foriegn and domestic officials, hijacking foriegn policy, and even attempting coups against the Japanese government.

In the early 1930s this matter seemingly came to a head when the young radicals coalesced around General Sado Araki formed the Imperial Way Faction (Kōdōha). In opposition conservative elements of the army coalesced around Lieutenant General Tetsuzan Nagata to form the Control Faction (Tōseiha). These two factions spent most of the 1930s at eachothers throats, with tensions reaching their peaks when Kōdōha members murdered Nagata. The next time the Kōdōha overstepped, their attempted coup in February of 1936, the Tōseiha made sure to get their revenge, sacking many of the Kōdōha faction’s leaders and demoting many of its known members.

Yet this victory proved hollow. The victorious Tōseiha saw fit to subordinate Japan’s civilian government, a spirit of independent action remained pervasive amongst the IJA’s officers, and the army’s successes in the new war in China further intensified and promoted the IJA’s indulgences.

In October of 1938 the Japanese General Staff had devised a solution to the problem of western aid to the Republic of China. The “Canton Operation” was to be a joint operation by the IJA and the Imperial Japanese Navy. Its aim would be to capture the city of Guangzhou and its environs, thereby denying the Pearl River delta to those wishing to import war materials. The European colonies of Hong Kong and Macau were not to be touched, as simply occupying the areas peripheral to them would be sufficient to neutralize them.

Originally the plan was to have two commanders; the ground component was to be led by Lt. Gen. Motoo Furushō, while the naval component was commanded by Adm. Koichi Shiozawa. A last minute adjustment to this plan came a mere two weeks prior to its start, when Lt. Gen. Furushō was promoted to the Supreme War Council of Japan. His replacement was to be the infamous Lt. Gen. Rikichi Andō.

Mr. Andō’s affiliation (if any) during the confrontation between the Kōdōha and Tōseiha is unknown. After all, as the IJA’s military attache to the United Kingdom, he was out of the country for much of the early 1930s. However, it is plainly apparent that he would be one of the IJA’s most dangerous independent actors.[2]

The Canton operation was an outstanding success by most measures. Supported by elements of the IJN’s 5th fleet the IJA’s 21st Army[3] made landfall and muscled its way through the NRA forces that attempted to halt its advance. By October 21st Guangzhou had fallen to Japanese occupation, and as the 104th Division pushed on towards the city of Foshan the 5th Division doubled back to the south. On the evening of November 2 the first 105mm shell fell upon the New Territories.

General Rikichi Andō: the man who started the Anglo-Japanese War​

Of Course You Realize: This Means War

News reached London at 12pm. Parliament had just finished postponing debate on implementing the Anglo-Italian Easter Accords when news of Japan’s unprovoked attack on Hong Kong arrived. After a little debate an ultimatum was penned for the Japanese, giving them 24 hours to explain their actions, withdraw their forces, and for those responsible to face appropriate punishment.

Tokyo itself was also caught flat footed by this news. Upon initiating the attack Andō had sent word that he was engaging “non-negligible” NRA formations which had “regrouped in British Hong Kong, seemingly with the approval or apathy of the British authorities” which had committed “acts of sabotage directed against the rear areas of the 21st Army”, and that during these engagements “the fighting has organically spilled over into Hong Kong.”

An emergency liaison conference between the government and the military had been called. While it was agreed that Andō’s explanation was wholly unlikely, there were other matters to consider.

Was war with the UK desirable at this time? There was some understanding of the pace of British rearmament. The window for a successful war against the British was closing with each day, and Britain was undoubtedly one of the powers sponsoring the Republic of China’s resistance.

Could Japan admit to have acted in error? Doing so would be a national humiliation on par with acquiescing to the Triple Intervention in 1895.

Would the lower ranks skin them alive if they did so? Probably.

Was there even a problem? “Ambiguous incidents” had brought them unimaginable success in China.

No understanding would be reached before the ultimatum lapsed, and Japanese state mouthpieces and allied media began regurgitating Andō’s story in full.[4]

At 1:00pm GMT Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain issued a declaration of war.

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[1] Though, it’s worth noting that the Hanyang Arsenal had been relocated out of Wuhan before the Japanese captured the city, and domestic arms production continued throughout the war.

[2] iOTL he unilaterally invaded French Indochina while the Japanese government and French State were still negotiating. This is admittedly quite the step up from that.

[3] in IJA terminology refers to a corps level formation.

[4] at this time it is still unknown if this was the result of a policy decision or if an Andō ally in the media had gotten the ball rolling on their own.

A/N:
Yes COVID-19 has made me stir crazy to the point of productivity. No that energy has not been put towards updating my existing timeline. Yes I agree that’s probably a bad thing.

So: Comments? suggestions? complaints? Hate mail? Please post it in this comment section.

Tune in next week as we delve into the Battle of Hong Kong and diplomatic fallout.

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

Opening Strategy: The need to come up with one

Once again it must be stressed that neither Empire had intended to go to war at this time. Accordingly it should be no shock that neither had any substantial preparations for war with the other.

The UK would need time to mobilize the economy of its vast empire and muster its military. During the 1930s Hong Kong had been substantially fortified. The Gin Drinker’s Line[1] in the New Territories was intended to halt any attack for up to 6 months. Even half that though would theoretically be enough time to assemble a fleet in Singapore that would be able to break out into the South China Sea thus relieving the embattled Hong Kong Garrison. This plan of course relied on a very pessimistic assessment of IJA and IJN capabilities.

One of the tunnels that constituted the Gin Drinkers Line​

Relief was to be provided by the Eastern Grand Fleet. This combined force of the pre-war China Station, Australia Station, and East Indies Station would be further reinforced with elements of the Mediterranean and Home Fleets. In addition, the navies of the Dominions[2] would be expected to contribute.

Parliament was also quick to identify another opportunity. The Yunnan-Burma Railway which had begun construction earlier that year was to be hastened, so that a larger volume of supplies and possibly even a BEF could be sent to the Chinese front.

Japanese strategic planning was hampered by factionalism. The famous rivalry between the IJN and IJA was playing out once more.

While the IJN was in fact no more immune to radicalism than the IJA, it had a healthy appreciation of Britain’s naval capabilities. In fact, it hadn’t been too long ago that Royal Navy advisors had taught the IJN about carrier operations, and many of the IJN’s personnel still served aboard ships that had been built in Britain. Additionally, naval campaigns required fairly substantial preplanning and preparation. Stumbling into war without warning, when much of the IJN was tied down in existing operations in support of the campaign in China, was the worst possible way to pick a fight with a powerful foe.

The IJA had its own internal disagreements over how to proceed. There were those who wanted to see Lt. Gen. Rikichi Andō tried for his actions, and there were those who saw him as a hero who had finally unleashed the might of Japan upon the hated western barbarian. The compromise eventually reached was that, to avoid disrupting morale, Andō’s court martial would be held off until the conclusion of the battle of Hong Kong.

What all this meant was that Japanese strategy at this time amounted to “take Hong Kong” and that initiative was passed to the international community.


From Catastrophe: Unity of an ephemeral sort

The international reaction was fairly homogeneous. No one could find any reason to not condemn Japan’s attack on the UK.

German Reich:
This held true even in Germany, which under the influence of Joachim von Ribbentrop had been in the midst of reorienting itself away from China and towards Japan. As in all cases with the Nazi regime, it was a matter of backstabbing and feelings rather than consistent and coherent policy. When Ribbentrop excitedly informed Hitler of Britain’s distraction, he had caught Hitler in a melancholic mood and was asked to know the probable fate of the white race in Asia. That put the ball in the court of Herrman Gorring, who had once derided Japan as a “Far East Italy”, and who still had some strings to pull at the Gestapo. John Rabe’s photos of the Nanjing Massacre arrived at Hitler’s office later that day.

Germany’s official statements on the matter would remain fairly muted, but high level diplomatic cables between Berlin and London indicated that Germany strongly supported Britain’s decision.

Kingdom of Italy:
Italy had a more coherent policy, one which quite favoured Japan, especially after the economic mission to Japan earlier that year had yielded positive results. However, economic reality made it weary of Britain, especially as Germany wasn’t taking a position at this time. Instead Mussolini sought the chance to once more play the part of the great conciliator, and instead offered to broker peace if Japan would withdraw its forces from British territory.

Unfortunately for Mussolini’s ego, Japan was still set on war, and the UK was done giving Japan opportunities for peace.

French Third Republic:
For France these events could not have come at a worse time. On the same day that Japan attacked Hong Kong Germany awarded a portion of Czechoslovakia to Hungary; strong indication that Hitler’s ambitions were yet to be sated.

Worse, France was still racked with post-Munich Agreement strikes and the government was in general disorder following the Communist Party’s exit from the Popular Front. As a result France had little recourse but to stress to their British colleagues the necessity that their war in the east be short and victorious.

The British were all too happy to accept the French position that they would hold down the fort in Europe and provision Britain with discounted arms for the duration of the conflict.

Kingdom of the Netherlands:
The mood on the street and the mood of the Dutch government could not be more different.

To the average Dutchman, it seemed assured that their neutrality would be respected. After all, they had managed to remain neutral throughout the Great War despite being sandwiched between the rival power blocks. Furthermore, the Dutch had a firm grasp over its colonial empire and was actively strengthening it with its expensive naval program.

To those in the know, the Dutch East Indies were in an extremely precarious position. The Dutch had had growing concerns about Japanese aggression since the invasion of Manchuria.[3] What’s more, the fact that Britain’s colonies nearest Japan were all either nearby or outright bordering the DEI, meaning that it was almost certain fighting would spill over even if the opposing sides tried to respect Dutch neutrality. Diplomatic feelers were sent to both sides to gain guarantees.

The British were quick to point out that Hong Kong had been subject to an unprovoked attack, and that, regrettably, when the Japanese violate the neutrality of the DEI Britain will be forced to act in kind.

The Japanese response at first seemed uncharacteristically reserved, “The Empire of Japan will strive to do all in its power to maintain the centuries-old amicable mercantile relation with the Kingdom of the Netherlands.” However, an ultimatum could be inferred; that an embargo would be viewed as an act of war.

The Dutch government issued its statements, wishing for a prompt end to the conflict, and denouncing Japan’s aggression. However it stopped short of issuing any sort of embargo, a matter it rationalized to Britain on the basis that Japan got over 90% of its oil from the US and that an embargo would therefore be only an empty provocation.

United States of America:
Many in Franklin D. Roosevelt’s administration were ready for war.

The American public at large was not, and outside of FDR’s inner circle America’s political class was heavily divided on the issue. America was still gripped by a strong isolationist sentiment and Roosevelt’s words in support of Britain would draw numerous unflattering comparisons to Woodrow Willson.

Additionally, FDR’s hands were tied by the provisions of the Neutrality Acts. Fortunately, the Cash and Carry Clause remained in effect enabling the UK to purchase war materials from the US, and the FDR administration was able to lawyer its way around recognizing the state of war between Japan and the UK while still not recognizing the state of war between Japan and China.[4]

Anymore than that however, would be dependent on the amendment of the Neutrality Acts, and despite FDR’s efforts, filibusters and factionalism would drag out the matter for nearly a month, by which point FDR finally received the power to selectively apply embargoes.

Congressman Charles Lindberg, one of America's foremost proponents of isolationism​

Republic of China:
The Republic of China was overjoyed to finally have an ally against Japan. Chiang Kai Shek was so overjoyed that two poorly planned and under prepared offensives were mounted to try to relieve Hong Kong. These would do little more than waste lives and war materials, but the effort was much appreciated by the British Foriegn Office.

Soviet Union:
During the previous summer, the Soviet Union’s far eastern forces had been badly maimed in clashes with the IJA, and while a tenuous cease fire remained in effect it was clear to all that another round of hostilities was likely.

Based on this one would assume that the Soviet Union would be supportive of the UK in its conflict with Japan, and behind closed doors this was the case. Stalin accelerated the redeployment of troops to the far east and gave orders to Grigori Shtern to act as soon as Japan faced a reversal at the hands of the British.

Publicly, the Soviet official position was that the war was yet more proof of the contradictions inherent to a world of capitalist imperial projects.


For King and Countries: The Dominions Fall In

A period propaganda poster​

Canada:
Canadian opinion was once more divided along ethnic lines. Anglophone Canada was enraged at the attack upon the Empire, and across the country Union Jacks were flown at half mast. Francophone Canadians however lamented a repeat of the Second Boer War and there were large demonstrations against war, and conscription in particular.

In parliament, the positions of the parties were as follows: The reconstruction party of H. H. Stevens had been pro-isolation, but had recently merged back into the Progressive Conservative Party. Of the Progressive Conservative Party, Stevens would be the only one to object to an immediate declaration of war. The leader of the socialist-afiliated Cooperative Commonwealth Federation, J. S. Woodsworth, was opposed to war, but the rest of the party was in favour of aiding in Britains fight. The arch-reactionary Social Credit Party was nearly frothing at the mouth in favour of war and the immediate detention of all Japanese Canadians.[5]

Mackenzie King, whose Liberal Party held a firm majority sympathized with Britain’s plight but had a divided party and an agenda of his own. The Liberal majority government owed its existence to its strong showing in Quebec, the 59 seats it had won in Quebec answered to the population of Quebec, and accordingly could be expected to vote against war. However, the other 112 seats occupied by the Liberals were predominantly anglophone and thus in favour of war. A backbencher revolt by either side would immediately end the Liberal majority and King was determined to neither share power nor jeopardize Canadian unity.

The need to take time to ameliorate Quebec’s fears dovetailed nicely with KIng’s other goal, to remind the British, and english Canada, of the Dominions autonomy in foriegn policy. A delayed declaration of war suited him just fine, and it was enough of a compromise to hold the party together for a vote on the 3rd to defer.

Quebec’s fears however were going to be difficult to ameliorate. The National Union Party of Maurice Duplessis held Quebec’s provincial government with a vice-like-grip, and under his rule a strong opposition to Federal and Anglophonic overreach had been instilled in the population. Duplessis’ political machine was ever active reopening the wounds of the 1917 conscription crisis. Mackenzie King and his Quebecois lieutenants, Ernest Lapointe and Louis St. Laurent, had to mount a feverish campaign to convince the public that conscription wasn’t even an option for the Liberal government.

On the other side of the country another crisis was brewing as Vancouver was rocked by Race Riots. While smaller than those of 1907[6] these made headlines across the nation, many of the corresponding articles to which attempted to rationalize the violence or made impassioned arguments for the internment of the Japanese on humanitarian grounds.

When Parliament reconvened on the 10th a clear majority was found in favour of war, and a policy of internment consistent with precedent set during the Great War.

South Africa:
South Africa was divided in a manner comparable to Canada. It too had a large non-english settler population to contend with, and worse in South Africa’s case they formed the majority (of the settlers).

The Afrikaner population found its voice in the nationalist wing of the United Party, then lead by J. B. M. Hertzog, a former Boer General and a man who sought to distance South Africa from all things British.

With regards to the flaring tensions in Europe he had strongly advocated for South African neutrality. This stance was informed by his desire to assert South Africa’s interests and by his recently developed admiration for Hitler.

Against Japan though, things were a bit different. A colonial campaign was unlikely to be costly in South African lives, and committing to operations in Asia may provide South Africa with a convenient excuse to not participate in any hypothetical European theatre. Accordingly, he permitted his party members to vote as their conscience dictated. On November 4th South Africa’s parliament voted for war.

Australia:
In 1938, Australia’s parliament had yet to ratify the Statute of Westminster (from 1931!) and had accordingly been automatically brought to war with Japan by the British declaration. Australian Prime Minister Robert Menzies had made it a policy to tie Australia to Britain as much as possible under the understanding that only the imperial defence scheme could protect Australia in event of a war with Japan.

As a result news of the war wasn’t entirely unwelcome. It seemed Japan’s ambitions would be curbed without Australia having to follow through on the European implications of its commitments.

Australia by virtue of its position had to move fast, immediately getting its navy on active patrols around the Territory of New Guinea, and announcinging the formation of the 2nd Australian Imperial Force on the 5th of November.

New Zealand:
New Zealand was very much in favour of war. In fact it had been the one dominion to consistently advocate for force rather than restraint in each of the crises prior to the Anglo-Japanese War.

New Zealand’s parliament voted in favour of war on the same day as the UK’s declaration. Sentiment in New Zealand was aptly summarized by Prime Minister Michael Joseph Savage‘s words, “It is with gratitude in the past, and with confidence in the future, that we range ourselves without fear beside Britain, where she goes, we go! Where she stands, we stand!”[7]

Eire:
Eire, formerly the Irish Free State, had less than amicable relations with the UK at this time. The Anglo-Irish Trade War had only recently been resolved and the matter of the border remained a point of contention. Worse, Irish prime minister Éamon de Valera was a committed republican who had worked diligently to entrench neutrality as the dominion’s foreign policy.

Still, relations weren’t all bad, as demonstrated by the handover of Lough Swilly the same day as the British declaration of war. The Irish soldiers at the handover were clear to wish their British counterparts good luck.

De Valera was keen to explain to London that allying with Britain may reignite the Civil War, the popularity of his neutrality policy, and his fear that Irish clergy in Japan may be endangered if Eire’s neutrality wasn’t upheld.

However, he also understood that there were still some in Eire who took their shared monarch seriously,[8] and that there were many Irish people who were still hurting from the sorry state of the economy. Thus in his communications with London he was clear that his government would offer no obstructions to any Irish wishing to join the British military.[9]

This seemed adequate to the British, but as 1938 new circumstances would again endanger Anglo-Irish relations.

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[1] named after the nearby bay, not for the sobriety of its defenders.

[2] of which Australia’s was the only noteworthy one at this time.

[3] the memoirs of some nationalists in the Dutch government have indicated that there was also some consternation about perfidious albion swooping in to steal Dutch Colonies as they had in the Napoleonic Wars, but no documentation indicates that these fears were in anyway reflected or represented in official policy.

[4] which meant that China was still able to import American arms via third party shipping, and that Jap.

[5] A position they shared with the rebelling CCF members, the majority of whom hailed from British Columbia

[6] and notably the Chinese residents were amongst the perpetrators rather than the victims this time

[7] [and yes that quote is indeed from OTL] some in the American press would cheekily caption this as “Savage goes to war”

[8] and presumably he was stoked by the idea of this demographic getting killed off on the other side of the planet.

[9] after receiving a petition with over a thousand signatures this would come to include a mechanism to allow Defence Force personnel to temporarily transfer to British service.

A/N: Sorry, I know I said last time that this would be the Battle of Hong Kong, but this section is long enough as it stands. I can finish that up next week.

So some small things here (Ireland won't court martial soldiers who join the British, because iTTL they aren’t deserting to do so) and some pretty big things (Hitler hates the Japanese now).

Now I wonder if I can consistently post at 9pm on Saturday?

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

Hopes Dashed: The Japanese Commit

For those within the besieged city they had reason to be hopeful.

The initial bombardment and assault had caught the city’s garrison flat footed, but the assaulting forces pulled back after lieutenant general Hitoshi Imamura recalled his men upon finding none of the promised NRA encampments in the New Territories. For a time it seemed that this was a mere incident which would be resolved soon enough. However, artillery exchanges continued and the northern Districts remained occupied. The 5th division’s assault only resumed in earnest after the British declaration of war, by which point the garrison forces were dug in for a proper fight.

Hitoshi Imamura, commander of the 5th division​

The city’s chances of success seemingly remained high. For one, the Hong Kong Garrison was only a little smaller than a standard British division. Mind you, a Japanese division was nearly 50% larger than a British division, but when one accounted for the colony’s strong fortifications many felt it was a fair fight. Additionally, the attempts by the Chinese to relieve the city seemingly shifted things into Britain’s favour.

The other major factor in initial British optimism was the inactivity of the IJN. The 5th Fleet had supported the IJA’s initial actions in the Canton Operation, but against Hong Kong neither its cruisers nor its Flight Group were anywhere to be seen. It seemed that the IJN was putting its foot down on the army’s adventurism.

The city’s defenders were thus able to conduct an orderly fighting withdrawal back to the Gin Drinkers Line where they settled in for a long siege.

However Japanese command wasn’t content to let this situation remain. Andō’s effort to dismiss Imamura was overruled. Meanwhile Imamura was informed that on this occasion his superiors were willing to interpret the matter as a communications failure on Andō’s part, but that the matter could be revisited if his future conduct warranted it.

The 5th Division would be reinforced with the 21st Army’s 15cm Howitzers, and the IJN was browbeat into committing its forces. The second phase of the Battle of Hong Kong was about to begin.


The Last Stand of the Gin Drinkers: British No Longer Means Best

A compromised section of the Gin Drinkers Line​

On the 11th of November the Hong Kong garrison found their fortifications being pounded into ruble and that their assets being moved around behind the line were coming under air attack.

Any hope of holding out seemed to disappear then and there. Private David Fletcher provides a first hand account of the day in his autobiographical novel, Dead Man Walking:

As the world comes back into focus, I find myself unable to remember where I am. My vision is blurred red, my left ear rings. My ability to hear drifts in and out. Above me, streaks of tracer fire smeared across an overcast sky lance between the glittering forms of aircraft in the midst of a life and death dance. I hear artillery fire, there’s screaming all around me. I can’t tell if it’s mine, or someone else’s. I try to get up, but everything is numb. Am I paralyzed? My hand twitches, and I feel lancing pain up my arm where it hit the ground. Now, I am awake.

Hong Kong. I am in Hong Kong.

I feel a weight over my hand. It’s my rifle, finish battered from the hard fall against gravel and debris. I grab it, and use it to force myself to my feet. My lungs burn with smoke. There’s a taste of death in my mouth, coppery and foul. I identify where the screaming is coming from. The mortar that flattened me landed in the midst of my section, just behind me. Lawhead is the only one intact enough to be recognizably human, but he’s still punched through with shrapnel. He’s leaking everywhere, crimson blood marring his khaki combats. He’s probably done for, but he’s my buddy. I can’t leave him. I stagger over, wiping blood from my eyes, flowing freely from a gash on my forehead. I grab Lawhead by his webbing, and begin dragging him to the reserve line.

There’s booted feet and yelling on the other side of the palisade. The Japanese are coming. I raise my rifle weakly. I know that I can’t fight off what’s coming. It wavers in weak hands and smashed fingers. The first thing over the line is a flag, white and crimson. It flutters in the stifling air, flowing with the advance of its wielder. Another Japanese soldier comes over. He wears khaki so bleached as to be almost white. A canvas sun shield hangs from his helmet, silhouetting his head. I line up my sight as best as I can and pull the trigger.

*click*

“Fuck!” I swear, fumbling with the bolt, attempting to eject my spent round. It’s too late, the Japanese infantryman has seen me. He levels his rifle, and screams something that I don’t understand. Lawhead’s breathing heavily. His eyes are glazing over. Maybe they can save him.

I make my decision.

I let the rifle drop and slowly raise my hands.

The Japanese soldier strides towards me, face twisted, shouting harshly. I nod to Lawhead.

“Please,” I say, slurring.

The Japanese soldier glances at Lawhead.

Lawhead is gaping, his breathing is shallow.
The Jap bayonets him. Lawhead issues a small gasp of pain, more a gasp than a cry, and sinks down. His murderer twists the bayonet in him and pulls it out in one quick, contemptuous motion. Blood drips down the blade.

“What the fuck are you doing, you crazy goddamn slant?” I shout at him, “We’re prisoners of war! You can-”

He smashes me across the mouth with the butt of his weapon. I hit the ground hard, mouth on fire, tasting warm, metallic blood. I feel a tooth floating around in there. I’m dazed, but I don’t want to go down this way. I roll over, trying to rise to my feet. A boot connects with my ribs. I hear something crack, and I feel as though someone has detonated a grenade in my chest. I go down again, reeling and gagging with the agony.

The Japanese man’s face is contorted with hatred and disdain, and he raises his rifle to bayonet me as well. I’m about to die. I try not to scream, to give him anything to enjoy.

The man stops as a figure crosses in front of my swimming vision. He wears a long coat, carries a pistol. He’s shouting something. I’m trying to speak, I’m trying to ask for help. My mouth refuses to move. I’m left almost face down, cheek pressed against pavement and shattered glass, staring at the booted, dust covered feet of my soon-to-be executioners. I’m going to die, I think again.

But not today.

I am hauled to my feet, blood dribbling down the front of my tunic.

Lawhead’s gone. His eyes are rolled back.

That’s the last thing I see before the blindfold is pulled over my eyes, and I’m thrown into the back of a truck. Again, I bite back a scream as I slam hard into a floor piled high with the bodies of men I can’t see. I don’t know if they’re alive or dead. The floor is sticky. I know it’s blood. There will be plenty of screaming in the months to come.

I don’t know it yet, but I am being taken to hell.[1]

Across the Gin Drinker’s line similar scenes played out. Private Fletcher was one of the lucky ones.[2] Lt. gen. Imamura was committed to ensuring the good conduct of his troops, but his word was severely undermined by the well known friction between him and the Army commander. Fletcher’s “saviour” was likely one of the officers who remained more loyal to their division commander than to Andō.

The Gin Drinkers Line and the areas behind it would last only five days with the last forces being evicted from the devils peak redoubt on the evening of the 15th.

A substantial portion of the garrison had managed to regroup on Hong Kong Island. On the seventeenth the IJA would cross the harbour and, with the support of the Japanese heavy cruiser Myōkō secured beach heads on the island’s northern and northeastern shores. Fighting on the island would rage for another five days, the colonial government finally surrendering on the 23rd.


Hong Kong Surrenders: The Occupation of the City

The surrender of the British ushered in a dark chapter of the city’s history. As the flag atop Government House was changed a platoon entered the grounds of St. Stephan’s College and set about bayoneting the wounded in its infirmary. Lt. gen. Imamura saw to it that the perpetrators were immediately court martialed, but General Rikichi Andō would lean heavily on the judge for clemency. With the tensions between the two once again flaring IJA command would see to it that both were hastily promoted to other theatres.[3]

When Hong Kong’s new governor, Kenji Doihara, assumed office there was a rush to find evidence of Britain’s harbouring of NRA personnel. The city was subject to an intense shakedown during which all potential weapons were seized. Amongst the seized “war materials” that the Japanese press photographed were three platoons worth of mismatched and in many cases bullet ridden NRA uniforms and kit,[4] “proving” that Britain rather than Japan had been acting in bad faith.

Following this shake down governor Doihara set about making Hong Kong into a brothel “satisfactory to the tastes of the officer corps.” and extensive action was taken against the local Triads to clear the way for the entry of Doihara’s affiliated cartels.

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[1] big thanks to my pal Ur-Domerator for the vignette.

[2] well, lucky if one considers being sent to Pingfang an improvement over being executed.

[3] Andō to the governorship of Taiwan, Imamura received command over the 4th Army.

[4] believed to have actually been acquired from the disastrous Chinese counter attacks.

A/N:
Imagine my shock when the head of the 5th division turned out to be the IJA officer perhaps best known for his observance of the rules of war.

I normally post at 9pm but I'm curious to see if I'll get any more traction posting at noon.

Next time we'll finally get onto a naval campaign.

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

A Not So Short List: IJN Campaign Priorities

In Tokyo the IJN was faced with a problem.

Japan and its Empire were a fairly compact area. This gave them a strong defensive position as they could concentrate their fleet in the same area and easily move to head of an attack from any side. The British by contrast had possessions stretched across nearly the entire pacific rim, and with no means to defend all of them.

However, America’s recognition of the war between the UK and Japan meant that Japan was cut off from American oil. This meant that Japan could not rely on its defensive advantages. The impetus was on Japan to strike. Additionally many of the Japanese navy’s upper ranks had a fairly realistic appreciation of the industrial balance. The UK out produced Japan in every category of manufacturing, and ships were no exception. Japan needed to hit fast and hard.

The question was where.

The ship building facilities of Canada and Australia? Too far out of the way and not an immediate threat.

Britain’s assorted Pacific island colonies? While it would be useful, and perhaps even easy, to sever the supply line from Australia to Canada, these were again not an immediate threat.

The Malay Barrier on the other hand was a clear front runner. The Australian half of Papua and the British possessions on Borneo and the Malay Peninsula were obvious targets. Britain would have a hard time breaking into the Pacific if Singapore and Rabaul were to be strongly occupied. In addition to direct control over Brunei’s oil fields, this would also put the Dutch East Indies in a vice-like grip, securing the sea lanes for oil tankers and providing excellent staging grounds for a take over should the Dutch put up an embargo of their own.

Preparations for such a strike took some time. Stockpiles of equipment and supplies had to be prepared on Formosa for the western pincer and Truk for the western one.

However, mounting pressure to get in the decisive blow before Britain can work itself up to a proper war footing and the need to push British sub bases away[1] was enough to overcome the IJN’s historical aversion to splitting their forces ahead of decisive actions.


The Decisive Action: The Western Pincer Weighs Anchor

On December 24 1938 the western pincer departed Takao, Formosa.

Despite making up only half of Japan’s striking force, the naval force bearing down on Borneo was about as capable as the entire navy of France or Italy. It had three aircraft carriers, seven battleships, three seaplane tenders, four heavy cruisers, seven light cruisers, and 21 destroyers, and numerous smaller craft.

The major fleet assets of the weststern pincer were organized as such:

First Battleship Division:
-Ise (Battleship) (Flag)
-Hyūga (Battleship)
-Fusō (Battleship)
-Yamashiro (Battleship)

Third Battleship Division:
-Kongō (Battleship)
-Kirishima (Battleship)
-Haruna (Battleship)

First Carrier Division:
-Kaga (Fleet Carrier)
-Akagi (Fleet Carrier) [2]
-Hōshō (Light Carrier)

Third Carrier Division:
-Kamoi (Seaplane Tender)
-Kagu Maru (Seaplane Tender)
-Kamikawa Maru (Seaplane Tender)

Japanese Battleship Ise​

Additionally, vast numbers of transport ships would tag along to ferry over the newly established Malayan Area Army, consisting of the new 6th army and the 12th army.

The centrepiece of the 6th army was the Imperial Guards Division. However, perhaps more intimidating was the accompanying 16th Division which had recently partook in the bloody Battle of Wuhan and was accordingly well acclimated to high intensity operations.

Additional specialization was provided for by the Taiwan Independent Combined Brigade. It had previously primarily served as Formosa’s garrison force and accordingly had more limited experience in China. However, it had been drilled extensively in amphibious operations, and it was ideal for the anticipated forced entry operation.

Due to shipping constraints the 12th army would remain on Taiwan and slowly be ferried in after Borneo had been secured. The 12th Army had been primarily a training body and rear area security force. It was composed of the 21st division, a very new triangular division, and the 114th division, which was also fairly new yet was still organized as a square division. That such a comparatively weak force was also selected is indicative of their intended role as rear area security as the 6th moved on.


Like a Tsunami Bearing Down on Australia: The Eastern Pincer Weighs Anchor

On December 25 1938 the eastern pincer departed Truk.

For its naval component it included two battleships, three aircraft carriers, two seaplane tenders, two heavy cruisers, five light cruisers, 14 destroyers, and many lighter fleet assets.

The Major fleet assets of the eastern pincer were organized as such:

Second Battleship Division:
-Nagato (Battleship) (Flag)
-Mutsu (Battleship)

Second Carrier Division:
-Sōryū (Fleet Carrier)
-Ryūjō (Light Carrier)

Fourth Carrier Division:
-Notoro (Seaplane Tender)
-Kinugasa Maru (Seaplane Tender)

Japanese Battleship Nagato​

Accompanying them were the 20th Infantry Division and the 6th Infantry Division. Both were veterans of the Second Sino-Japanese War, though not equally so. Whereas the 20th had returned to garrison duties in Korea after a short and almost uneventful tour of North China in 1937, the 6th had participated in the battles of Beijing, Nanking, and Wuhan. However, both had participated in the Beiping–Hankou Railway Operation and so there was some degree of familiarity and companionship between the two despite their contrasting resumes. Due to shipping constraints only the 6th would be in the first wave, with the 20th being ferried over afterwards.

The bulk of the force would be sent to Papua, where the plan was to drive the Anglo-Australians from the island and threaten Australia itself from Port Moresby. Little resistance was expected on New Britain and the surrounding islands. The town of Rabul had been obliterated the previous year by a volcanic eruption and it was hoped that the anglos would not waste their resources garrisoning a ghost town. A single brigade of the 6th division would be tasked with securing them.

Soldiers of the IJA's 6th Division​

---

[1] On November 17 a cargo ship sending supplies to IJA forces committed to Hong Kong was torpedoed and lost with all hands, this marked the start of daily shipping losses to RN submarines.

[2] Akagi had been rushed through its post refit trials to partake in the operation.


A/N:
*WAAAAAAANNNNNNNKKKKKEEEEEEERRRRRRR!!!!!!!!!!! ight I'll stop outing myself as a weeb...

Yeah a bit of a skimpy update, some IRL stuff has cropped up, and I’ll admit that I didn’t anticipate how much of a bother keeping track of which ships are going where would be, and accordingly I slacked hard for most of the week lol.

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

Notice! Some dates and details in the last post (and this one for that matter) have been amended, familiarize yourself as necessary.



A Bastion For The East: The British Preparations

The fall of Hong Kong had produced a shake up in the British Navy. The failure to sortie into the South China Sea, especially in light of the eight days in which the IJN had apparently taken no action against the British, was a particularly sharp point of contention.

James Stanhope had only been made First Lord of the Admiralty on the 27th of October that same year, and the vicious tongue lashing his indecisive leadership received in the the House of Commons ensured that he would have the shortest tenure in the office’s history.

His replacement, Sir Winston Churchill, had an impressive resume, being a former First Lord of the Admiralty[1] on top of his extensive history of service to the British Empire. Churchill was perhaps not an optimal leader, he came up with a “plan” once a day, often ridiculous ones like sending a fleet through the Arctic during the summer to invade the Kurils, but his leadership and aggressive positions did much to energize the admiralty. While the build up at Singapore continued, Churchill was adamant that the navy show the flag, and sorties of light forces into the South China Sea helped the British gauge the fighting prowess of the IJN, as well as push the RN’s picket defense further afield.

The build up at Singapore was quite substantial.

Already in theatre at the start of the war was the aircraft carrier HMS Eagle, along with the 4 heavy cruisers, 5 light cruisers, 17 destroyers, 10 sloops, 13 submarines, and assorted lesser craft of the East Indies Station, China Station, and Royal Australian Navy.

As the Italian navy’s capital ships had been reduced to merely two modernized first generation dreadnoughts,[2] the Royal Navy was quite free to transfer assets over from the Mediteranian with little worry for the balance of power. From the Mediteranian came the battlecruisers Hood, and Repulse, along with the carrier Glorious, and the battleships Barham, Warspite, and Malaya. While the influx of capital ships, especially Hood, tended to be the most celebrated arrivals, the 4th Destroyer Flotilla, and the 1st submarine flotilla that were sent over made just as valid a contribution as they brought far more modern vessels to the theater.[3]

Given the general weakness of the German Navy, the Home Fleet was also able to contribute, though less so given that it also needed to act as a reserve should things in Europe flare up regardless. The battleships Nelson and Rodney, escorted by the light aircraft carrier and recent resident of the China Station, Hermes, as well as one heavy cruiser, 3 light cruisers, and 6 destroyers of the reserve fleet arrived in early December.

This meant that the Eastern Grand Fleet had amassed 3 carriers, 5 battleships, 2 battlecruisers, 5 heavy cruisers, 8 light cruisers, 30 destroyers, 10 sloops, 19 submarines, and numerous other craft. What all this meant was that the Royal Navy had built itself up to the point of numerical supremacy over any expected Japanese attack.

The British had a fairly clear idea of what to expect. The Far East Combined Bureau may have only just barely managed to torch their facility and escape from Hong Kong to Macau with only the shirts on their backs, but upon settling in at Singapore they were delighted to find a housewarming gift prepared for them. In a clandestine operation, Roosevelt had allowed the British intelligence services to “discover” how the Americans were able to read the IJN’s RED and BLUE codes.

Most of this, of course, was concentrated at Singapore. While the Admiralty had noticed the build up around Truk, Churchill did not care to invest much in the defence of “a colony’s colony”.[4] Churchill was quite clear that Japan striking at thin air in the east while consequently sending a reduced force to the real critical junction would be ideal.

Winston Churchill, First Lord of the Admiralty for the second time​

First Blood: Japanese Attrition

The 4 day journey between Takao, Formosa, and Brunei was a very precarious journey. The British submarines were an ever present danger, especially to the lumbering troop ships.

It was during the effort to harass the invasion fleet that the British submariners noticed just how lacking the IJN’s ASW capabilities were. Their underwater listening gear required the listening ship to slow to a crawl, additionally IJN ships lacked a means to track and account for different temperatures at depth. Worst of all they had a tendency to set the fuses of their depth charges too short, in fact the newest of the S Class subs could escape the maximum depth of the Japanese charges.

This meant even the would be hunters were potential prey as the British subs continued to nibble away at the edges of the convoy.

A torpedoed Shiratsuyu-class destroyer​

Rodnol to the Rescue: The Battle Off Borneo

In the prelude to Borneo, transmissions indicating that landing at Borneo was Japan's priority one had been intercepted by the British. Plans to intercept the Japanese and seek decisive battle in the South China Sea were shelved. The potential for letting the Japanese commit only to close the seas behind them after a decisive battle was simply too tantalizing to Churchill.

In the evening of December 28 the port of Muara came under air attack and bombardment by Japanese destroyers in support of a landing by the IJN’s special landing companies. Later that same night the favour was returned in kind in a raid by British carrier borne torpedo bombers which sank a fleet oiler, and damaged Fusō and Kongō. The British were making it clear that the Japanese had to seek battle at once.

Ranging further west of course was quite disadvantageous for the IJN, it meant being closer to British airfields in Maylaya after all. However, the need to secure the seas for the landing meant that the fleet elements, minus Kongō which lost a rudder during the night raid, had to push on. They would have to rely on the strength of the First Carrier Division, and its impeccable air crews and planes, to cover their advance.

As the B5Ns of the First Carrier Division closed in on the assembled British fleet, they came under a withering bombardment far sooner than anticipated. Their escort of A5Ms were surprised by British fighters diving down from the cover of the sun. This pattern was repeated with each sortie, convincing Rear Admiral Boshirō Hosogaya that his codes had been broken. Which was true, but not exactly what was happening in this case.

HMS Rodney was the second Nelson class battleship, which was frequently joked to have resembled an oil tanker rather than a proper battleship. With its 16” guns it was more heavily armed than any enemy ship during that battle. Yet it was at the rear of the centre formation, an especially odd place to be for a ship which was directing the battle. Odder still, as a battleship it was directing the air battle.

The refit that Rodney had completed in late October had fitted it with a Type 79Y radar mast. While primitive and not something that would allow ship board weapons to actively track the enemy, it did extend aircraft detection out 50 km. This meant that AAA crews could know the heading and distance of their attackers well before seeing them, and accordingly only make minor adjustments for altitude once they entered visual range. Additionally, friendly fighters could know where the enemy was going to be and get there first. During the long journey to the east Rodney's crew had enjoyed the opportunity to practice tracking Hermes' planes.

HMS Rodney, showing off its atypical silhouette ​

On the seas below the opposing battle lines moved into contact, with the RN’s battle cruisers and the IJN’s Third Battleship Division being the first to exchange fire. The Japanese ships had a numerical advantage, but the British ships were faster, better armed, and at least in the case of Hood, even better armoured. The superb 15” guns of the British ships proved that the Kongōs were essentially still battlecruisers despite their recent rebuilds and corresponding reclassification. Hood’s first volley straddled Kirishima and and in turn was straddle by the return volleys from the two Japanese ships. A second exchange of volleys mimicked the first. By then Repulse was just in range and was able to get a waterline hit on Kirishima. The battle progressed with both sides receiving a substantial number of hits. Kirishima continued taking on water and began noticeably listing to port. The British ships accordingly focused fire on Haruna, leaving the now floundering Kirishima to be dealt with by the torpedos of the accompanying destroyers. Kirishima had been failing to control the leak it already had, now six torpedo hits had nearly opened up its entire port side. The Japanese destroyers attempted to intervene with their Long Lance torpedos, but the secret weapon Japan had prepared was effectively screened by the British destroyers,[5] with only Fubuki managing to release a spread of torpedos against Repulse.

Observers on Hood feared the worst when Repulse accelerated to flank speed, only to abruptly slow down and release a plume of pitch-black smoke from its forward funnel. Radio communications however confirmed that Repulse hadn't been hit, and that it had merely overtaxed an engine during its evasive maneuvers. By this time Kirishima's guns had fallen silent as her crew prepared to evacuate the rolling vessel and Haruna was aflame with its number 3 turret jammed in place, so Repulse's loss of power was to be a non-factor for the remainder of the battle.

By this time the First Battleship Division and First Battle Squadron were still exchanging their opening salvos. Upon learning of the Third Battleship Divisions’ predicament, Admiral Zengo Yoshida gave the order to retreat. Fusō’s earlier damage caused it to lag behind, and the British ships began to relentlessly pound it. It would have surely been sunk had Rodney’s mast not been damaged by a strafing plane, allowing the torpedo bombers of Kaga and Hōshō[6] to conduct a successful run on ships of the First Battle Squadron, focused on Barham, the lead ship. Barham would limp back to port, but the tail chase was aborted.

The Battle Off Borneo had reached its bloody conclusion without deciding the war.

--

[1] well, it looks good until you remember his role in Gallipoli.

[2] Italy’s other two Dreadnoughts were laid up for rebuilds and Italy’s new builds were still years off.

[3] the Tribal Class destroyers of the 4th Destroyer Flotilla, which were far more competitive with their Japanese peers in gun battles than prior British destroyers were.

[4] the first of a series of slights towards Australia.

[5] far from a war winning technology, their oxygen fuel meant the deck mounted torpedo banks tended inundate the deck with fire when hit. The Captain of HMS Cossack remarked that "4.7 inch shells normally don't cause that kind of damage."

[6] Akagi had been rushed through post-refit trials and was experiencing numerous technical issues. During the battle her damper sheaves completely crapped out and with no means to recover planes it was decided that her airwing would make for a captured airstrip on Borneo.

A/N:
So yeah this is basically far eastern Jutland, only it's also a British tactical victory. Full butcher's bill next time.








Battlecruisers are stupid.

Bottom Text

edit: Fine, no big explosions. And since its no longer Hood's birthday, best girl Kongō gets to stay afloat a tad longer. Actually, I figured that Britain unveiling its night strike capability should have a bigger impact.

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

Clash of Empires: The Blitz of Brunei

It had only been relatively late into the Japanese approach that the British uncovered that Borneo, not Singapore, would be Japan’s first target. Accordingly additional reinforcements from Malaya were still preparing to transfer over when the Japanese arrived. The protectorate of Brunei was theoretically garrisoned by the Second New Zealand Division, but by this time only the Division HQ and a somewhat understrength infantry brigade had arrived.

It didn’t take too long for the Special Naval Landing Forces and the Taiwan Independent Combined Brigade to get ashore. The British simply didn’t have enough forces in theatre to garrison the entire coastline, and once an undefended strip of coastline was found between Seria and Muara the Japanese were quick to exploit. While the first units slogged ashore float planes from Kamoi, Kagu Maru, and Kamikawa Maru provided air support and hampered the New Zealanders’ efforts to consolidate for a counter attack.

The morale of the green New Zealander force continued to plummet as the Japanese forces aggressively advanced, taking advantage of trails and cleared sections of jungle which weren’t documented on the British maps. Additionally, the Japanese seemed to have a considerable artillery park of mortars with them despite having only just landed, though, the destruction of the nearby oil field has been attributed to excessive use of mortars.[1] A furious fight for the two ports ensued, but the veteran Japanese troops eventually prevailed, securing the ports by the morning of the 29th. This enabled the Imperial Guards and the 16th division to disembark and join the fray.

Eventually Major-General Bernard Freyberg was left with no option but to fall back to Sarawak to link up with the forces there. Only a token force would be left to show the flag at Bandar Seri Begawan as the Imperial Guards Division bared down upon it. During this time a number of small airstrips meant for bush planes passed hands with neither side taking much notice.

Major General Freyberg, regarded as New Zealand's greatest general, despite presiding over one of New Zealand's costliest days.​

Of Rangers and Rifle Grenades: The Sarawak Stalemate

The British forces in Sarawak proved much better. The Indian Army’s newly formed 4th division had recently arrived and the tall men of the Punjab were a welcome sight for sore eyes. The 4th was formed up from the 1st, 3rd, and 4th battalions of the 12th Frontier Force Regiment, the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd battalions of the 13th Frontier Force Regiment, the 1st Battalion of the 7th Rajput Regiment, and the 1st and 2nd battalions of the 7th Gurkha Rifles, with artillery from the Hong Kong and Singapore Royal Artillery, and additional supporting units.

The division’s commander, Major-General Claude Auchinleck, who had served with distinction in the Great War and been the senior officer during the Mohmand campaign of 1935. He was an aggressive commander, but did not have too tight a grip on his subordinates.

The 13th Frontier Force Regiment, 7th Rajput regiment, and 7th Gurkha Rifles had been deployed on the Northwest Frontier, and accordingly had far more recent combat experience than most other formations in the British military. Their experience in the mountains also lent itself to the better appreciation for how terrain could sway battles.

Meanwhile, the 12th Frontier Force Regiment had been deployed to Burma, and had experience operating in jungle terrain. This experience proved vital when the 4th Battalion, which had been tasked with garrisoning the port of Miri had to mount a fighting retreat through the Lambir hills in the face of the advancing 16th division on the 29th.

The following day elements of the Sarawak Constabulary[2] linked up with the New Zealanders and helped guide the beleaguered force to link up with the 4th division. Over the course of the 30th and 31st the British Empire’s forces fought a somewhat less than orderly, but not too costly retreat.

Sarawak Constabulary before the war.​

The 16th Division maintained its offensive. 6th Army command was intent on keeping up the initiative and securing Sarawak as a base from which the British forces in Singapore could be held in check. To keep morale up, the troops were intentionally misinformed, that the Battle of Borneo had been a decisive victory for the Japanese Empire and from the Western extreme of Sarawak they would be ferried over to take part in the decisive battle in Malaya.

While the Indian army generally wasn’t quite as well equipped as the British Regular Army, the 4th division was definitely better equipped for a fight in rough terrain. Their mountain guns could be broken down and carried into the bush, and the Great War era rifle grenades they used to dislodge Pashtun tribesmen from mountainsides proved a reasonable counter to the light mortars carried by the Japanese infantrymen.[3] Exchanges during this period proved far more even in terms of casualties than had been experienced in Brunei.

The retreat finally ended on the western bank of the Kemena River. Here the British Empire’s forces dug in and had a long overdue consolidation of command. The Provisional Corps was established, comprising the 4th division and the 2nd New Zealand Division,[4] under the overall command of acting Lieutenant-General Auchinleck, and plans were drawn up to finally halt the Japanese advance. The river would provide an ideal natural defense. The Japanese were perilously over-extended, being a full 200km from the port of Miri. Additionally, they were just about on the edge of the combat radius of the A5Ms flying out of the air strips in and around Brunei.[5]

Crocs added an additional layer of hazard to any attempted crossing of the Kemena River.​

The one chink in the armour was the port of Bintulu, which despite being on the eastern bank of the river needed to be deffended. Accordingly the 1st and 2nd Battalions, 7th Gurkha Rifles were tasked with holding the town.

On New Year’s Day the Japanese tried to take Bintulu on the march and were strongly repelled. Attempts to shell the town into submission devolved into a fierce artillery duel as the Hong Kong and Singapore Royal Artillery’s 152mm Howitzers[6] opened up, finally cluing the men of the 16th division into the fact that they were clashing head on with another division.

A more aggressive attempt to push into Bintulu was launched, combined with an effort to cross the river further south. From their prepared positions the Vickers-Berthiers of the 4th Division chattered away like lawn mowers, and the Japanese soldiers attempting to ford the river were cut down like blades of grass.

Ranging even further up river had not revealed any exploitable weak points, the New Zealanders and Sarawakians repelled those attempts, leaving the Japanese with quite the conundrum. They didn’t have long to ponder it as they unexpectedly came under naval bombardment in the late afternoon as British cruisers moved in to assist. With morale plummeting now that it seemed the British, not the Japanese, had command of the seas, the 16th Division withdrew during the night.

Men of the 4th Division at Bintulu.​

When this was confirmed early the following morning Auchinleck proved all too eager to march his men back across the supply desert they’d just crossed in order to pursue the enemy. This aggressive move proved to be in error, as his advance forces fell into an ambush set by a portion of the 16th which had remained to buy the rest of the division time.

The Provisional Corps was back in Bintulu before noon. The bloody start to 1939 forced Auchinleck to begrudgingly accept that his men needed rest and replenishment before any more could be asked of them.


The Butcher’s Bills: The Price of Japan’s Foothold

Japan’s western pincer had been a costly endeavour. During the naval portion of the campaign Japan lost 2 battleships, Kirishima had capsized after taking on too much water and Haruna succumbed to its fire while attempting to withdraw, 1 heavy cruiser, 1 light cruiser, 7 destroyers, 5 supply ships, 1 troop ship, 1 minesweeper, and 44 aircraft. In addition, 1 fleet carrier, 2 more battleships, 2 more light cruisers, 1 more destroyer, and 1 collier had received substantial damage. More than four thousand lives were lost and over a thousand more were fished out of the sea and made prisoners.

On land the casualties were even worse. During the landing phase the Japanese sustained 578 casualties, rather high given that almost all of them were extensively trained specialists in somewhat short supply. During the subsequent operations in Brunei the Japanese suffered far fewer casualties, sustaining less than a hundred while they overran the protectorate. During their advance into Sarawak the Japanese 16th Division suffered 1,679 casualties, mostly illness and infection. During the Battle of Bintulu and subsequent retreat they endured another 4,878 casualties.

Between the over 5,000 casualties sustained at sea and the 7,208 sustained in the land operation, Japan’s efforts had cost it approximately 13,000 dead, captured, or wounded.

The British of course were not unscathed. Their naval efforts had come at the cost of 1 Hawkins class heavy cruiser, 2 light cruisers, five destroyers, two submarines, and 39 aircraft. In addition, 1 battleship,[7] two battle cruisers, two heavy cruisers, and fourteen destroyers had been damaged. 1,647 British lives were lost at sea, and nearly another thousand injured.

On the ground the New Zealanders had suffered 1,025 casualties in Brunei, devastating losses for the small nation. During the retreat through Sarawak the British Empire’s forces sustained 2,131 casualties, mostly to disease and infection. During the Battle of Bintulu and the abortive pursuit the British Empire’s beleaguered forces endured an additional 3,176 casualties, falling especially hard upon the Gurkhas who were at the centre of the fighting.

Between the 2,597 casualties at sea and the 6,332 casualties sustained on land, the 8,929 subject of the British King had been killed, injured, or captured. Britain had come out ahead, but by a smaller margin than many might be comfortable with.

---

[1] the Type 89 “knee mortar” was being used to full effect.

[2] formerly known as the Sarawak Rangers.

[3] infact, rifle-launched Mills bombs had a greater effective range than the Type 89, though that was offset by a longer time to load.

[4] which, so as to exist on more than just paper, had battalions of the Sarawak Constabulary attached, allowing it to function as a severely understrength binary division.

[5] which had been greatly reduced by the need to ration aviation fuel.

[6] hastily ferried over from Singapore to salvage the operation.

[7] HMS Barham was so badly done by the torpedo hits it received at the close of the battle that it barely made it to Singapore’s Floating Drydock, and in fact nearly rolled over while Admiralty IX was rising.


A/N:
Western Desert? Never heard of it, and I don't know what Auchinleck would have to do with it. Eastern Jungle is where it’s at.

So Japan is basically in a very precarious position. I has forces ashore in an area it doesn’t have naval supremacy over and will have to run a long supply line through the South China Sea, which as seen in the last chapter, is already being stalked by British subs. Attrition will abound. To compare it to OTL’s WWII, it’s the Tokyo Express meets convoy interdiction from Malta.

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

A Hopeless Situation: The Tidal Wave Makes Landfall

While Japan’s westward thrust arrived at its target already beaten and bloody, the eastern strike force was having a merry time. Over the course of their 55 hour long journey over from Truk they had scarcely seen so much as the distant silhouette of a submarine, though there had been a number of false alarms.

On the morning of December 28th the troop ships carrying a brigade of men from the 16th Division entered the harbour of Rabul. As expected, the ghost town was completely undefended. The soldiers disembarked and secured the heights of the volcanic caldera surrounding the town as technicians surveyed and assessed what would need to be done to establish the port as a forward base.

It was more than just good planning on Japan’s part that the site they picked would be undefended, the entire Bismarck Archipelago was garrisoned by a single battalion. Even if Rabul was officially the capital of New Guinea Territory, there weren’t men to spare garrisoning its ruins.

Defences in New Guinea proper were better. As Australian territory the Government of Australia was able to deploy the Militia to defend the colony. As formations that had existed prior to the war there shouldn’t have been too much that needed to be done to stand up the militia divisions. However, the introduction of conscription for militia service meant that the prewar cadres of trained soldiers had been diluted with green troops in the months following the initial attack on Hong Kong. Additionally, the militia had already been somewhat under provisioned with modern equipment, and now was facing alarming shortages. Still, a well equipped brigade of pre-war personnel was assembled for the defence of eastern Papua. It was hoped that this would be enough to halt any Japanese force, as it had been anticipated that the Japanese would focus their thrust towards Singapore. The Australians were in for a rude Christmas Eve shock when news came in that the Far East Combined Bureau had decoded messages indicating that the Japanese were dividing their attention evenly between the British possessions on either side of the Dutch East Indies.

Australia was still scrambling to get more soldiers over when Lae came under aerial attack on the 29th. Similarly to what had went down on Borneo the night prior, a single brigade simply couldn’t hold the massive exposed coastline against a determined landing party. The Australian force’s commander, decorated WWI veteran Gordon Bennett, recognized that that wasn’t needed. Lae was flanked to the north and south by large rivers, only one of which was crossed by a bridge, a single bridge.

The Japanese may have expected that their enemy would wither away under sustained air attack, naval bombardment, and showers of mortars, and it did, but slower than may have been expected. Lae was a day one objective, yet it ended up falling only the fourth day and, due to the lack of an overall commander,[1] isolated pockets in the town persisted in their resistance through to day six.

Arrival of Japanese equipment after the landing​

Momentum Broken: The Rats Resist The Rising Sun

The Japanese intention had been to storm Lae then swing around by sea to capture Port Moresby. However, the holdup at Lae gave the INJ enough time to find out how the western operation had gone. Accordingly orders were received that the fleet elements were to be stripped out from the eastern operation so as to reassemble the combined fleet for another action against the British naval build up at Singapore.[2]

The sense of betrayal the IJA felt upon learning of this is perhaps best demonstrated by an incident on January 2nd, when a number of artillerymen are recorded to have been executed for the crime of firing their Type 90 field gun at the destroyer Yamagumo. While that particular detail may seem extreme, it is worth considering that the IJN's decision would mean no air support for any landing operation at Port Moresby,[3] and without that it would be impossible for a brigade to capture and hold the city. Instead, a brigade of the 16th division would advance over land while the troop ships returned to Truk to retrieve the 21st Division, which would take a week.

While the Japanese feuded, Gordon Bennett claimed that his escape from Lae was justified on the grounds of having determined how to beat the Japanese and the need to pass on this information. Having relocated via the airfield at Bulolo, he intended to prove the value of his “war-deciding experience” amongst the mountains of the Owen-Stanley Range. He was going to stop the Japanese with a battalion of local volunteers and conscripts augmented by a hundred some-odd men who escaped with him from Lae.

Operating from the airfield at Kokoda Bennett’s force travelled light and engaged in acts of sabotage against forward elements of the Japanese force. In a number of skirmishes Bennett’s men bloodied the enemy and retreated before they could be counter attacked, and many had an almost eager anticipation for how he would defend his base at Kodoka. However, in late January he simply cratered the runway and withdrew without firing a shot.

Gordon Bennett at Kokoda​

What would he do when he could retreat no further? Fortunately for him that was never a real concern, as Australia was taking no chances and had surged three militia divisions into Port Moresby. By early February Bennett’s tiny force was rotated out of combat to recuperate, and the IJA faced a far stronger force. Port Moresby was secured for the time being.

Australian infantry in the jungles of New Guinea​

---

[1] the man, the myth, the legend has “””heroically””” slipped out of Japan’s grasp iTTL too!

[2] the IJN has concluded that their loss during the Battle Off Borneo is down to them having failed to concentrate their forces, which honestly isn’t a bad assessment.

[3] the IJA would draft plans to acquire their own aircraft carriers after this incident.


A/N: Yes, it’s short, I really just wanted to get something out this weekend.

So, how is Mr. Bennett’s redemption arc going? VOTE NOW ON YOUR PHONES!

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

Polish Realignment: A Sarmatian Solution to Poland’s Perils?

Poland was an old nation but a young country. With the exception of Romania, every one of its neighbours had a claim to one part or another of its land. This considerably isolated Poland.

Poland’s foreign minister, Jozef Beck, had been an active participant in the Munich conference on Germany’s side. This gambit had gained Poland the Zaolzie region, and completely isolated Poland from the west.

Polish armour during the annexation of Zaolzie​

Further complicating matters for Poland was its close relation with Japan. Poland had been tight lipped on the outbreak of the Anglo-Japanese War and only issued a belated call for restraint and diplomatic resolution. As a result the outbreak of the Anglo-Japanese War further divided Poland and the UK, and had the added detriment of meaning that Poland couldn’t hope for Japan to open up an eastern front should the Soviets move on Poland.

Polish diplomatic orthodoxy had always been to seek the assistance of France and the other western powers. However, as Munich had demonstrated, France’s adherence to its eastern alliances was conditional on British assistance. With Britain now at war in the east and France still chilly after Munich, it became apparent that no one in the west would come to their aid.

Poland had previously pursued the idea of a confederation of alliance of Europe’s minor powers. However, border disputes with Czechoslovakia and an unwillingness to accept Polish leadership meant that little progress had been made towards that goal.

Poland’s only option seemed to be to find accommodation in the schemes of one of the neighbouring great powers. The Soviet Union had nearly invaded Poland over the annexation of Zaolzie. That left Germany.

Germany had of course been Poland’s partner in the Munich Crisis. However, many of the same arguments brought up at Munich could just as easily be wielded against Poland. On the 6th of January 1939 Germany’s Foreign Minister, Joachim von Ribbentrop, pressed Beck on the matter of the Polish corridor. He demanded a firm commitment to the annexation of the Free City of Danzig and the establishment of an extraterritorial highway connecting East Prussia to the rest of Germany.

These terms would be a steep price to Poland. Even with the establishment of Gdynia,[1] the loss of economic rights in Danzig and the threat of the extraterritorial road being used to sever connections with the Baltic coast would give Germany a stranglehold on the Polish economy. Put on the spot, Beck carefully put off the matter by noting that he would need to consult with his government before committing, and suggested a conference at a later date to hammer out an agreement on the transfer of Danzig. That conference would end up being the Danzig Conference of the 11th of February, 1939.

Having successfully put off that matter, Beck shifted the topic to the expected fate of Czechoslovakia. After all, the Poles, as Sarmatians, wanted to stand alongside their fellow aryans.

Beck and Ribbentrop​

Grave Uncertainty: The State of French War Planning

Were one to take an overview of French industrial output in 1939 one would likely get the impression that France was at war. In reality, this was very much not (yet) the case, but France was very clearly mobilizing it’s economy nearly as fast as it’s ally across the channel.

That Germany may try to take advantage of the UK’s distraction was not lost on politicians in Paris. In either a short or a long war the prospects for France alone to beat Germany seemed remarkably slim, demographics alone dictated that France stood little chance.

In lieu of quantity the French hoped quality could make do. That meant more tanks, more planes, more trucks, and more forts; and that meant more spending. Which was not an entirely repellent prospect to the ruling Socialists, as they had always intended to spend their way out of the great depression. The shift from buying surplus wheat to buying breakthrough tanks[2] was accomplished with minimal grumbling from the ruling coalition and the open support of the right wing opposition. Only the communists, who by this point existed only to state their disapproval in every government initiative, gave any dissent.

The French government also began new diplomatic initiatives. Overtures were made to Mussolini aimed at securing Italy’s neutrality in event of a Franco-German war, negotiations for their detente would drag on for months. On the on the 25th France signed the Bérard-Jordana Agreement, which shifted French diplomatic opinion from the moribund Republican cause to the Nationalist cause, and included a pact of nonaggression within its “declaration of good neighbourly relations”.

The military however was as confused and directionless as ever. Despite acquiring more tools for mobile warfare, it remained set on maintaining a defensive posture in what it anticipated would be a positional war.

The most immediate military actions France undertook were directed towards the security of its colonies near the war zone. While no great surge in troop numbers took place, a couple of mostly unassuming rotations positioned higher quality troops within the garrison. On the 11th of January a Moroccan Goum arrived in Haiphong to much fanfare and claims of “Mediterranean colour being brought to liven up the far east.” Officers were also shifted around to shake the rust out of the local military establishment, and the aged FT light tanks were complimented by new Panhard 178 armoured cars providing some much needed mobility and firepower to the garrison.

Moroccan Goumiers in the Central Highlands, despite appearances they had a reputation to be brave and dependable soldiers​

The mobilization of French industry also benefited from British contracts, in particular for uniforms and logistical aid. French merchant and passenger ships played a part in the feverish movement of men and materials to Malaya and Australia that occurred in the first few months.


Dutch Neutrality Endangered: The January 13th Incident

Not only the Australian bush burned on Black Friday, but Dutch territorial water did as well. At 07:00 hours JST a Japanese merchant oil tanker was torpedoed as it left the port of Bula in the Dutch East Indies. The Japanese demanded an explanation of the Dutch, and threatened “additional precautions” while in Dutch territorial waters.

The Dutch government was alarmed by this. While the Dutch government had been taking some pro-British positions, it was in no way prepared to enter the war at this stage. A quick shakedown of the Koninklijke Marine confirmed that no Dutch ship was involved in the incident.[3]

Thus the Dutch foreign office had occasion to ring up their British counterparts. Which led the British foreign minister to approach Churchill to confirm what everyone was suspecting. The perpetrator was the submarine HMS Clyde acting on the admiralty’s directive to interdict Japanese oil shipments regardless of jurisdiction.

The Lord of the Admiralty came under criticism in Parliament for this overreach. However, Churchill was still untouchable after the fleet action off Borneo, and the arguments he presented about oil being Japan’s achilles’ heel were irrefutable. Still, trampling Dutch neutrality could not be permitted, and Churchill was forced to rescind the directive.

While the diplomatic matter passed swiftly enough, the incident had been a wake up call to the Dutch public who only now realized how precarious their neutrality was. As letters of concern poured in and demonstrations were held the conservative coalition running the Netherlands began to feel the pinch. No gradual build up or time spent waiting for new kit to be ordered and delivered would be acceptable to the electorate. The Netherland’s empire was in peril and only a surge of troops into the region would pass, efforts to maintain appearances and avoid a knee jerk reaction from Tokyo be damned.

That however raised issues of its own. The KNIL did not conscript troops and a recruitment drive would likely alert the Japanese before it would yield results. The Dutch conscript army constitutionally could not be deployed outside of Europe, which shut that avenue down. On the other hand, conscripts in the Korps Mariniers could be deployed overseas, though the KM was traditionally a smaller force. It was far from an optimal solution, but in 1939, all calls to serve would exclusively be to the Korps Mariniers.

The dubious constitutionality of this was noted. Those turning 18 that year were aware that the letters they received from the government weren't like the ones their older siblings and fathers had received. Still the matter went unchallenged, initially.

The Social Democratic Workers Party, still on its path of moderation, understood the public anxiety surrounding the January 13th Incident and understood that a misstep would paint themselves as unpatriotic. No, it was better to let the matter simmer, and launch a parliamentary challenge only once the public began to grow weary of its sons being cast off to the Indies. Instead they focused their criticism on the government's plans to procure capital ships from Germany. It argued that money should be spent in the Netherlands to the benefit of Dutch labourers,[4] rather than to fund Nazi militarism and oppression.

KNIL infantry with their eclectic kit.​

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[1] which had even eclipsed Danzig in volume of shipping.

[2] also finally achieved the government’s goal of lowering the cost of living, as the cost of food was finally not being artificially inflated in a period when workers were getting reduced hours.

[3] though many in the naval establishment, including Rear Admiral Conrad Helfrich seemed oddly excited by the turn of events and the funding increase they could expect as a result.

[4] optimally, though a new Rijkswerf rather than a private company.

A comparison of the January 13th Incident to the Attack on Hong Kong reveals quite a bit about the differences between the UK and Japan. In the UK, even if necessity mandates that barely a slap on the wrist is given (for now), the military isn’t permitted to overstep into the civil government’s domain (in this case, the foriegn ministry) and the government takes steps to mend fences after the incident. Whereas Japan’s civil government had for a few years now been little more than a rubber stamp for (not even particularly high ranking) officers.

Sorry for the long wait.

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

Pinoy Problems: America’s colony caught between Japan’s pincers

The Dutch weren’t the only ones whose overseas possessions were located awkwardly in the middle of a warzone. America had much the same problem, though with the benefit, or drawback, of being the second greatest naval power in the world.

For America the Philippines was Key to America’s command of the Pacific. Or rather that’s what the army believed. To the army’s never ending disgust, the Navy had no intention of conducting a forward defence of Philippines, despite Manila being a Singapore-tier facility. Worse, as 1939 dawned the navy began discussing shelving its “through line to Manila”, intended to relieve the Philippines garrison, in favour of a more cautious approach to war with Japan. This change in conversation was brought about by the deteriorating situation in Europe. A two front war was perceived as likely.

As the US Army began to consider its own plans for a potential European war, the Philippines garrison found itself without a voice with which to influence the government. So it turned to its recently retired field marshal, America’s #1 boy scout,[1] Douglas MacArthur. MacArthur, then still a civilian advisor to Filipino President Quezon, had brushed elbows with many of the US’ political class, and was also a fairly popular figure. He would make an ideal public face for a lobbying effort to shore up the Philippines.

MacArthur at an interventionist rally, warning of the dire consequences should America shrink back to allow Japanese ascendancy.​

The families of those serving in the Philippines, Filipino Americans, and those businesses with interests in the Philippines were not the only forces that lined up behind MacArthur. The influential China Lobby saw reinforcing the Philippines as a means to apply pressure to Japan. Another ally came in the form of political activist, nationally known lawyer turned executive, and part time interventionist, Wendell Willkie.

The Campaign for the Security of the Commonwealth of the Philippines was off to a rocky start. Non-interventionists like Charles Lindburg and Thomas Dewey had more clout. Additionally, Britain’s naval victory off Borneo had seemingly eliminated the threat of the IJN.

The campaigner’s one windfall came from the highest office. President Roosevelt was more than willing to commit to a small increase in troop numbers on the islands.[2] More importantly, though an executive order on the 1st of February 1939, he arranged for the US Pacific Fleet to be rebased in Hawaii, something that had been scheduled to happen anyways the next year, and ordered the preparation of a fortification scheme for the Pacific islands.


The Prodigal Son: Chile lends rents a hand to Britain

On the southern most extreme of the Americas lay a nation that had a special relationship with Britain.

The hero who helped it win its independence? British.

Its creditors? British.

Its navy? British built.

The previous year had seen a German funded coup attempt, and the present year saw friction between the nation’s military and Chile’s new left-leaning president, Pedro Aguirre Cerda. Worse, On the 25th of January an earthquake ravaged central Chile, inflicting tens of thousands of casualties and leaving the nation’s third largest city without power or running water.

It is under these circumstances that the British made an offer to acquire Almirante Latorre in exchange for additional monetary aid. Almirante Latorre had served under the Union Jack during the Great War as HMS Canada and since being received by Chile its one notable action had been to host a mutiny in 1931. It underwent a refit in 1937, but the improvements had been meager.[3]

Cerda was by no means eager to rent out his nation’s flagship. At the same time, he had a great need for a quick buck, and no inclination to be particularly charitable to the military. Further, he had Halifax’s word that the ship would contribute to the containment of Germany.

With the Chileans on board with the scheme, it just had to be ratified by parliament. And that meant disclosing it to parliament. And that meant letting Churchill know that the Foriegn Ministry had arranged to procure a superdreadnought on its own initiative.[4]

The argument Halifax presented, was that the departure of so much of the RN for the Far East had left him with no stick to carry in negotiations in Europe. HMS Canada was a British ship, with an armament (14”) that was heavier than that of the Italian (12”) and German (11”) battleships. Theoretically, Canada’s reacquisition would handily resolve the naval balance in Europe.

Churchill was miffed at the slight. Somewhere at the back of his head there was probably a voice telling him that logistics or crew constraints would make the matter of fielding Canada more complicated than laid out. But a much louder voice was yammering on and on about various schemes that could be enabled by having a battleship in the eastern Pacific. Canada would return to the Royal Navy, but not to Britain or anywhere else in Europe for that matter. No, Canada was to visit its namesake.

HMS Canada near Esquimalt, British Columbia.​

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[1] Alternatively, Eisenhower would have one believe him to be America’s #1 hellbound playboy

[2] Actually FDR wanted a surge of troops to the area like the Dutch were doing, but he understood that America had no stomach for such at this time

[3] Most notably this refit added anti-aircraft cannons to the ship. Two of them. For a capital ship

[4] It was a fairly open secret that this was in part tit-for-tat retaliation for Churchill’s unilateral and undisclosed decision to disregard the Netherland’s neutrality.

Q: You actually posted on a Saturday?

A: Yes.

Q: So are we back to regularly scheduled programming?

A: That is my intention, though updates may well be shorter (like this one) now that I’m working full time again.

MacArthur entering politics? Churchill planning something brash and ill-advised? Tune in next week for the long anticipated China update!

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

Chiang’s China: It’s Good to have Allies

China’s position had improved little since the outbreak of the Sino-Japanese War. The loss of Canton had eliminated one of the main entreports for western military aid. The South China Sea becoming an active war zone had also reduced the flow through Indochina to Kunming. While the British had promised arms to China so far there had only been a trickle along the Burma Road.

There had however been one major benefit to the start of the Anglo-Japanese War, the security of knowing that China at long last had allies fighting the Japanese. The many foreign language newspapers published within the Shanghai International Settlement covered the Anglo-Japanese War in some detail, and the local Chinese language news papers, such as Shen Bao, made this news more widely known. Major events, like the Battle Off Borneo,[1] were also propagandized by the KMT government. The idea that another powerful state was beating Japan elsewhere gave even the most pessimistic Chinese hope that the war could be won, regardless of the KMT’s wanton corruption and inefficiency.

The alliance with Britain also bolstered the stature of Chiang Kai Shek. While some of the warlords and the Communists may have achieved some local successes that raised their stature vis-a-vis the central government, they weren’t internationally recognized entities. Only Chiang’s government was, and that gave him a monopoly on official communications with China’s only allies.

Chiang Kai Shek and one of his most precarious "allies", the charismatic leader of China's Communists, Mao Zedong.​

Trouble In Chinatown: Stalemate

During the battle for Wuhan elements of the 11th Army had attempted to take Nanchang on the march but had been repelled by Chinese defenders along the Xiushui River. Almost immediately after the battle the 6th and 16th Divisions had been pulled from the line to provide their expertise to the Eastern and Western pincers respectively. This left the bloodied soldiers of the 11th in no position to take any offensive actions following their victory at Wuhan.

This immediate lull in Japanese activity gave the Chinese some much needed breathing room. For the city of Changsha, which was struggling to function after having received the bulk of Wuhan’s refugees, this lull had allowed some sort of normalcy to be regained. Following its failed efforts to relieve Hong Kong, a number of additional NRA units were shifted north to reinforce the cities of Nanchang and Changsha.

Over the winter Chiang Kai Shek grew restless. His armies were too vast for mere defensive operations, and with the Japanese distracted further south it seemed opportune to conduct a grand counter attack. A grand offensive was drawn up for March. Half a million men sweep north in two huge pincers encircling the Japanese concentration at Wuhan. The 9th Military Region’s preparations began right away. And the Japanese knew just as soon.

Despite being governor of Hong Kong, Kenji Doihara still had time for his narcotics empire. In addition to reducing the combat effectiveness and work ethic of the Chinese citizenry, Doihara’s massive network of dealers, smugglers, brothels, and crooked KMT officials also gave him an ideal intelligence network. Nothing major could happen in China, on either side of the frontlines, without Doihara having had forewarning. The massive infusion of NRA forces into the region was noted, but hadn’t been unexpected.

Officers in brothels tend to have loose lips, and there were quite a few brothels in and around Changsha following the evacuation of Wuhan. It was only a matter of time before Diohara caught wind of Chiang’s planned Spring Offensive. Normally he was one to share information[2] when it suited his career advancement, but his career would mean little if the Central China Expeditionary Army was wiped out, a loss from which Japan would be unable to recover.

The news quickly went up the grapevine to Tokyo, then back down to Lieutenant General Otozō Yamada of the Central China Expeditionary Army. The news was not entirely surprising, forward observers had long since noticed the Chinese buildup, however this had been assumed to be defensive in nature.[3]

Now the exact records of the IJA’s discussions on what to do have been lost, as unfortunately much of the Imperial Japanese Army General Staff Office’s documents have been. However, Liaison Conference notes indicate that the IJA had settled on an offensive-based solution by the 20th of January.

The actual offensive began on the 12th of February with a belaboured Japanese crossing of the Xiushui River. The crossing was hard for the same reason why it was successful. By this point the spring thaw was already underway in central China and the river’s banks were greatly swollen with melt water. The Chinese had assumed this would be enough to discourage the Japanese and had only a minimal picket defence along the river while the bulk of their forces drilled further back.

The pontoon bridge across the river proved too unstable for Japan's medium tanks to cross, forcing them to sit out the battle.​

The initial Chinese response, launched on the assumption that this was merely a raiding force, was too small to dislodge the initial toehold. Which meant the Japanese bridgehead was able to consolidate and dig in.

Having been alerted of the situation, 9th Military Region head, Xue Yue took over direction of the battle and funnelled in additional reinforcements to besiege the Japanese bridgehead. A furious artillery duel also erupted along the length of the river.

By the 18th the Xue Yue had arrayed the entire 19th Group Army[4] against the Bridgehead, and was leveraging this numerical advantage. On the 3rd of March the last Japanese holdout on the south bank of the river was finally overrun by NRA forces, with sporadic artillery exchanges continuing for the rest of the month.

China at last had a real victory under its belt.


Historiography Time: The “Early Thaw” debate

The importance of this victory has been called into question.

Supposedly based on POW testimony from the time of the battle, the KMT government has widely propagated the idea that they had halted and turned back a major operation intended to seize Nanchang. Supposedly this was “Operation Early Thaw”

However, post war testimony of high ranking IJA officers in British custody indicates that the operation was only ever intended to be a spoiling maneuver. Which succeeded in forcing the Chinese to abandon their plans for a spring offensive.

Proponents of Operation Early Thaw tend to dismiss the post war testimonial as retroactive justification for an earlier defeat. Proponents of the spoiling attack theory point out that the KMT had every reason to elevate the victory and explain away the disproportionate casualties suffered by the NRA during the campaign.

In either case the documents to prove one way or another no longer exist.

The testimony of Otozō Yamada, commander of the Central China Expeditionary Army at the time of the battle, is central to the spoiling attack theory.​

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[1] one poster “depicting” the Battle Off Borneo notably featured Japanese battleships erupting into flames as though it was a repeat of Jutland.

[2] and his sister!

[3] which it initially had been.

[4] and a “group army” in western parlance would be just an army, not an army group. They are facing off against an IJA army, which I’ll remind you is a corps-level formation. God these non standard terminologies make me want to pull my hair out. HERE’S HOPING I CAN BUTTERFLY AWAY THE SOVIET’S STUPID BRIGADE SIZED DIVISION, DIVISION SIZED CORPS, CORPS SIZED ARMY, AND ARMY SIZED FRONT BEFORE I HAVE TO DEAL WITH THAT BULLSH*T!

And now to touch up the Dutch section...

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

The Workshop of the World Shakes out the Rust: Britain’s Economic Mobilization

For about a century the UK had been the most industrious country on the planet. It was during this century that the island nation built most of its outsized empire. The relative security and isolation of its island meant that it normally didn’t spend too much on its military, instead preferring to massively upscale in the event of war. This tendency had meant that the UK was only a spectator to many of the most pivotal conflicts of the 19th Century. Yet, as the Great War showed, in a long conflict the UK absolutely could bring the full might of one of the planet’s largest economies to bear against its foes.

Japan never had the ability to force a short war on Britain.

Britain was already in the midst of the largest peacetime rearmament in 1938, but even bearing that in mind a noticeable production spike began in November. In 1938 the UK would produce over 6,000 aircraft, approximately 1,000 tanks, well over 70,000 trucks, and hundreds of thousands of tonnes of merchant ships. Across the Isles factories hummed and clattered as trains carried their product to the ports where they were then shipped overseas.

Things were not entirely smooth sailing. If the war broke out in Asia in November of 1938, it came to Britain in January of 1939. In the cold early hours of January 16th London, Birmingham, and Manchester were shaken awake by explosions. Though only one died this day England was shaken, and it would remain shaking. These bombings represented the start of the Irish Republican Army’s “S Plan”, a brutal campaign of sabotage and terrorism indiscriminately targeting the UK’s civil and military infrastructure.

Storefront in Coventry blown out by IRA bombs.​

It did not take long to make the obvious connection between the attacks and the earlier “declaration of war” the IRA had issued to “the invaders”. Almost immediately there was some clamour for the British Army to occupy Ireland in its entirety and shake it upside down for bombs and bombers. In another government this may have beared fruit, but Chamberlain was a seasoned diplomat following his maneuvering around Germany and he was determined to keep that reputation.

That put the matter onto Éamon de Valera, who at first seemed hesitant to act but came around once the British captured a copy of the S-Plan on the 5th of February.

That also did much to mollify the labour-lead opposition, which was anxious to avoid yet another distraction from the growing fascist block. Labour however still found issue with the Conservative’s conduct in the war. Not in the typical leftist sense. Heavens no, Atlee’s Labour Party was astonishingly patriotic, royalist, and pro-military.
Rather their criticism was that the Tories were still too tight on the purse strings. The UK was supposedly gearing up at full steam for a total war, yet unemployment somehow remained well over 5%. Quite clearly one of those couldn’t be true if the other was, and the unemployment numbers were pretty firm.

The Tory counter argument was that the military industries were best suited to the task at hand, and that using wartime spending as some sort of universal stimulus package would be irresponsible and ideological. Of course, this line was not universally embraced, red tories and militarists within the Conservative party gave disapproving and disquieting murmurs.


Japan’s Greatest Natural Resource is the Japanese: Spiritual Mobilization

Japan had already been at war for a year and a half. If it’s people were becoming weary of the casualty reports, declining standard of living, and increased regimentation of society, then they kept their complaints to themselves. For a country that mere years earlier had been rife with political violence and conflicting mass movements, the Japanese had seemingly found solidarity.

Pacifist and anti-militarists, active earlier in the 30s, had been silenced, driven underground, or out of the country entirely by the Tokko. Gone were the socialists, the unions had been nationalized. The League of Blood and the Kodoha had been silenced or satiated by the militarists. Even the political parties were little more than another mouthpiece for the military elite. Japanese Prime Minister Fumimaro Konoe saw to it that Japan was uniform in its support for the Shintaisei[1] program.

At the political level he had begun making moves to merge Japan’s four largest parties[2] into one. It was his belief that Japan needed further consolidation of opinion to win the wars which the Empire presently found itself in. Partisanship would be Japan’s death.

He also began a transformation of Japanese society by initiating the National Spiritual Mobilization Movement. This promoted greater patriotism by promoting the ideals of the indomitable Japanese Spirit, and the Emperor’s divine right to govern the entire world. It also called for greater productivity and sacrifice from the Japanese people. A further indicator of Japan's side slide into further militarist insanity would be the extensive role played by education minister and former head of the Kodoha,[3] Sadao Araki, in the movement.

During this time the bronze 5 Sen and 10 Sen coins were taken out of circulation and replaced by aluminum coins. This was one of the many efforts by the Japanese government to scrounge together as many resources as it could.

At the same time Fumimaro Konoe’s government understood that Japan’s social cohesion could only last so long with the government asking everything of the people while offer no solutions to their problems. For this reason his government began preparing the Tonarigumi. This network of neighbourhood civil defence organizations would handle rationing, public health, issuing of government bonds, and other matters. Hopefully these would allow local issues to be solved at the local level. If not, then the informants within them would ensure that the nail that sticks out still gets hammered down.

Fumimaro Konoe with his war cabinet. A keen eye may spot a large number of military personnel amongst the supposed civilian government.​

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[1] New Order.

[2] Rikken Seiyūkai, Rikken Minseitō, Kokumin Dōmei, and Shakai Taishūtō.

[3] Yes, the insane militarists who had nearly caused a civil war earlier in the decade. He leadt that Kodoha. As education minister he tried to restructure Japanese upbringing around the Samurai code.

A/N:
A wee taste of matters on the home front. Next will cover both sides’ preparations for pre-typhoon season naval campaigns.

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

Traditions Vindicated: The Japanese assessment of what went wrong off Borneo

Japan was reeling from its defeat off Borneo. The government had tried desperately to gag the press and limit knowledge of Japan’s defeat, but the number of ships not returning home, especially the absence of Kirishima and Haruna, couldn’t go unnoticed for long. It started as whispers, as sailors took to their shore-leave it quickly became an open secret that not even the Tokkō could suppress. The mighty IJN had been beaten bloody.

The IJN needed to get a win under its belt else the government might face a crisis of public faith. So the question of the day became, how to fight the British.

Perhaps the most glaring issue was numerical. The Japanese had underestimated the extent to which the British would concentrate their navy at Singapore. Not unreasonably so, Britain had after all maintained local squadrons and mounted extensive Mediterranean operations during the Great War despite building the Grand Fleet in the North Sea. That Britain would completely strip Australia of even its own navy was unbelievably bold.

Nonetheless, Japan had sent nearly half its fleet to strike at an enemy that didn’t exist while the other half ran headlong into the largest battle line seen since the Great War. It was quite evident that Japan should have stuck to the tried and true Combined Fleet model. The entire IJN was surely a match for the forces that Britain could spare from the European Theatre.

The next matter was a matter of ship quality. At the most decisive point in the action, the confrontation between the two fast battle lines, the ships were actually even at two each. That the Japanese ships had been so clearly beaten indicated that the IJN had failed in its goal of procuring individually superior vessels to make up for its quantitative handicap with the British and Americans. That the British ships had a heavier (if inferior in other ways) armament became a point of obsession, and largely served to vindicate plans for the Yamato-class’ 18” armament. Other areas of focus were the superior reaction time of the British aircraft and anti-air artillery, and the apparent vulnerability of the arrangement of the oxygen fueled torpedoes on Japan’s destroyers.

One of the massive turret wells aboard the incomplete Yamato.​

IJN officials did note the extent of the attrition inflicted upon them by British submarines, and the RN’s apparent capacity for nighttime carrier operations. However, the majority of the IJN’s analysis and discussion of the western pincer operation was quite narrowly focused on the battle. Illustrative of this fact was a survey circulated of the captains who partook in the battle. Of its 33 questions only 8 did not exclusively pertain to the battle.

There was one take away of note that didn’t reinforce or refine existing doctrines. That perhaps Akagi’s air compliment would have been better spent replacing losses amongst the compliments of Kaga and Hosho rather than disembarking for land. Though the main impetus for this seems to be that the army was agitating to have Akagi’s former wings transferred to their control.


Japanese shake up: A new admiral steps up to bat

The question of who could salvage the situation was difficult to answer. The specific losses sustained would make winning a decisive gun battle difficult. This was especially if Britain continued reinforcing Singapore, and more British capital ships were due.[1]

Deciding the decisive battle had therefore fallen to the carrier wing, or at least that’s what Deputy Naval Minister Isoroku Yamamoto insisted.[2] He had a strong argument, given that the western pincer’s carrier force, despite its issues, still managed to force the British to break off their pursuit and rendered Britain’s torpedo bombers a non-factor. Meanwhile, their battle line had been battered.

Yamamoto’s solution was radical. An “air fleet”, Japan’s six[3] carriers acting as a highly mobile fleet capable of ravaging the enemy’s battle line from beyond the horizon. A single colossal strike package that would take out an enemy fleet in 1-3 sorties. This would also mean the fleet would need to travel a shorter distance to strike, thus reducing the amount of time the enemy’s attritional factors would have.[4] His argument was persuasive.

As a concession to the Fleet Faction[5], one of their own and a veteran of the Battle Off Borneo, Chūichi Nagumo, was raised to the rank of Vice Admiral so as to command this experimental fleet. He would be joined by Japanese naval aviation pioneer Takijirō Ōnishi, and together their first task would be to devise a means to retrieve Akagi’s air wing,[6] for without it the 1st Air Fleet couldn’t even train.

On the 3rd of February Isoroku Yamamoto was promoted to the rank of Admiral and given command of the Combined Fleet. He alone would bear the responsibility to see through his innovative gamble.

Vice Admiral Nagumo and Admiral Yamamoto​

The same day a very unseasonable tropical depression was observed off Yap, as though it were an omen of things to come.


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[1] many of Japan’s big gun lobby privately despaired that the war had been lost.

[2] and as one of the pioneers of the IJN’s air arm he had some need to stand up for his child. This was probably part of why he changed his tune from the previous year, when, as a dissenting voice in Japan’s headlong rush to war, he earned many death threats.

[3] including Hiryu, expected to be ready in time for the decisive action.

[4] Turning Hong Kong into a forward base would also reduce the length of the journey to Borneo.

[5] militarist wing of the INJ.

[6] the pilot Minoru Genda seemed to be held in especially high esteem by Yamamoto.

A/N:

Sorry for the somewhat skimpy update, I’ve moved. Next time will cover... whatever Churchill is plotting.

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

Churchill’s Day Dream: Operation Ball-Peen Takes Shape

Churchill was known for his erratic and grandiose planning process. He had been largely responsible for the concept of the Gallipoli Campaign, and his instincts had remained largely the same. He still wanted to hit Japan itself hard and fast. In his memoirs he mentions examining maps and charts trying to figure out how and repeatedly being stumped by the vastness of the Pacific, until eventually noticing that, on his globe, Prince Rupert wasn’t too far from the Kurils. The navy and army both rejected his wild scheme to invade northern Japan with hardy Canadians, but the idea for a strike from the Americas remained.

In the Caribbean a strike package began taking shape. The First Canadian Infantry Division, assembled from the contributions of many Canadian Militia Regiments, got acclimatized to tropics and drilled in jungle and littoral operations. The Royal Marine Division practiced... being a division. On the waters nearby the newly commissioned Ark Royal drilled its Fleet Air Arm complement, and was joined by Canada’s six River class destroyers and a growing number of requisitioned civilian vessels for logistical duties. All the package was missing was some big guns to flatten enemy shore defences, and of course Minister Halifax ended up solving that problem. Only question then what to point it at and how to supply it once it gets there.

HMS Ark Royal with its Swordfish torpedo bombers.​

Churchill had of course already answered that question, though he didn’t know it yet. In leaving Australia with no noteworthy naval forces he had allowed the Japanese to sweep through the Solomons and New Guinea. The Battle Off Borneo had vindicated Churchill’s decision- in the short term. As the year changed and winter waned the Australians continued screeching bloody murder. Churchill’s surprise blow would have to be directed towards the Solomons. Here they could take pressure off the Australians who would in turn act as the logistical depot for the force upon its arrival. With that decided upon the details began to take shape.

One might assume the Marines would be ideal to make the first British shore assault of the war. However, the disbandment of the Royal Marines Artillery in 1922 had left the service uniquely ill-prepared for wartime expansion. The Canadians would be the first ones in.


Disaster in High Command Part 1: From the Worst Force in the British Empire to Its Most Eclectic

The Canadian Militia had a well earned bad reputation. Indeed Canadians had a good reputation for the soldiers they could produce, but that was in spite of their military establishment rather than a credit to it. To the Second Boer War Canada contributed a cream of the crop force, not reflective of the Canadian Militia as a whole. To the Great War it contributed the CEF, an entirely new command structure with minimal influence from the Militia. The Militia itself was ill-equipped, small, overly political, and bore all the “gentlemen’s club” traits that had been pervasive in the pre-Great War Home Army. Assessments by visiting British officers were exclusively negative.

Efforts to modernize the militia by smashing it together with the CEF following WWI had really only benefited the artillery arm, which professionalized quite a bit and continued to drill in and build upon the complex fire solutions that Currie had employed so effectively during the Great War. For their professionalism and technical know-how, artillery officers were favoured for promotion over Infantry and Cavalry officers. This bias however did not translate into newer equipment, as WWI tubes remained predominant. As Chief of Staff (1929-1935) Andrew McNaughton believed that technology was advancing too fast, that anything bought for training would be obsolete by the time war broke out, and that officers should instead work on “imagining how such equipment would be implemented”.

Speaking of McNaughton, he now commanded the Canadian First Division. As both his British superiors and his own subordinates quickly noticed, while competent tactically, and well read on matters of strategy, he was operationally inept. If he did anything good for the First, it was putting the ideas he’d dreamed up for modern equipment into practice.

McNaughton had a fascination with planes, as Chief of Staff he’d expanded the RCAF, and during the Depression building airfields had been one of the chief tasks of his relief camps. He accordingly really wanted air support for his soldiers, and harassed defence minister Rawlston with a very specific list of requirements for the campaign’s air complement. These being:
-a single plane for recon, artillery spotting, air support, and dog fighting so as to ease logistics
-that it’s production be first priority for a Canadian factory rather than third priority for a British one
-that it be able to make use of short “bush” runways

These requirements were specific to the point where they basically outlined the Canada Canadian Car and Foundry FDB-1.[1] A biplane which, as its name suggested, was made in Canada and was both fighter and dive bomber. It had also been previously rejected by the RCAF in favour of getting more Hawker Hurricanes, but the extent of McNaughton’s clout was kind of ridiculous. Nonetheless, it had some virtues, being passably fast, able to make quite sharp turns, and bearing two .50 calibre machine guns.

He also had kept an eye on British armoured developments, to the exclusion of all others, and was accordingly aware of some experiments Vickers had done with amphibious light tanks. The Royal Armoured Corps had also had a renewed interest in these since the outbreak of the war, and was more than willing to let the colonials be guinea pigs. Accordingly, the detachment from the Ontario Regiment meant to serve as its reconnaissance regiment was provisioned with Mk. VI light tanks, specially fitted with mounting points for pontoons and out-board motors.

A Mk.II light tank demonstrating the principle.​

And thus the First continued its training in preparation for departure on St. Patrick’s Day.


Stop and Go Breakthrough on Borneo: The British Advance on Borneo

The frontlines on Borneo had largely remained stagnant since the Battle of Bintulu. Between the two camps lay 200km of jungle completely devoid of infrastructure. Naturally any force that crossed it wouldn’t have the strength needed to dislodge the enemy, and both sides had the means to prevent major movements by sea. So while the Provisional Corps recuperated and expanded the active warfighting fell to RAF and the RN’s MTBs. While the Japanese had far more recent combat experience than the British, the British enjoyed an advantage in that the natives could the trusted to guide downed British airmen and beached seamen back to Bintulu, and kill their Japanese counterparts. Beyond the Dayak’s normal devotion to the Brooke Dynasty, the IJA’s characteristic conduct in Sarawak had earned them no favours.

Still, the British Army was in no mood to play third fiddle for long. Lieutenant General Auchinleck’s provisional corps was now reinforced by Britain’s 5th Infantry Division, a crack regular army division kitted out with the most modern equipment. It was also joined by the 4th Royal Tank Regiment[2] with its A11 Matilda Infantry Tanks.

Throughout February the engineers and labourers supporting the Borneo Corps[3] worked away clearing and metalling a road through Sarawak. It was a slow process, not least because of the threat posed by small groups of IJA personnel armed with knee mortars and light infantry guns to the bulldozers that, on this side of the planet, were quite hard to comeby. This forced the British to escort the prized dozers with tanks which necessitated stricter scheduling and increased logistical burden.

A Matilda with laundry hanging from it.​

An interesting development occurred on the 27th of February. A British dozer crew heard the telltale sounds of a vehicle crunching through the jungle and assumed it to be the Matilda returning from its forward patrol as it was scheduled to do so. Accordingly they didn’t think much of it, until a 37mm shell blew their engine block and cabin to bits. Nearby personnel took cover as a Ha-Go light tank rampaged through their worksite unopposed for over six minutes until the Matilda finally returned.

The battle that followed was quite unusual as neither the Matilda[4] nor the Ha-Go had the firepower to penetrate the other’s armour. The Matilda crew attempted to ram the smaller tank, but the Ha-Go proved too nimble and was able to escape.[5]

This, along with other operations along the Sarawak Road Campaign greatly informed the design requirements for future British infantry tanks. For one, a mountable dozer blade was seen as desirable so that the tank can do what a tank and a dozer were required to do, easing the logistical burden. For another, anti-tank capability was needed. Finally a less complex vehicle than the Matilda would be desirable to ease the logistical burden.

The road inched ever onwards, and along with the construction of many new airfields to house a growing quantity of Hawker Hurricanes and other RAF planes, and new ports to allow for greater flow of supplies, represented a steady buildup to where the British could hopefully sweep the Japanese from Borneo.

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[1] designed by the only man to be both an aviation engineer and a luddite, Michael Gregor.

[2] battalion sized force.

[3] as the Provisional Corps was now known.

[4] a model armed only with the .303 Vickers.

[5] though a scuttled Ha-Go was later found in a bog from which it lacked the torque to escape from.

A/N:
IT’S NOT DEAD! Factoids on the Pre-WWII Militia and McNaughton’s ...traits... come from John English’s Failure in High Command.

Happy belated Canadian Thanksgiving!

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

The Block Solidifies: The Partition of the Czecho-Slovak Republic

In the aftermath of the Munich Agreement and surrender of the Sudetenland there had been a shakeup in Czechoslovakia. The nation was at once in arms and demoralized. How could their leaders just accept that?

President Benes was swiftly made to resign and a new government was hastily formed with the insurmountable task of staving off the country’s total destruction. First priority was providing the Slovaks and Ruthenians with autonomy so as to mitigate their fifth columnist tendencies.[1] Germany and its clique wasn’t yet done with the beleaguered republic, as the First Vienna Award made clear. The new government tried to act submissive, if no help would come from the west then it could perhaps find a place in Germany’s new order.

As March came in it was curtains for the state. With some prompting from the Germans, the Slovaks and Ruthenians declared independence from the state on the 14th of March. The next day Hitler authored an ultimatum to the Czech government, surrender peacefully or the Luftwaffe would level Prague. Within 24 hours of that Hitler would stand in Prague Castle and announce the establishment of a German protectorate over the Czech lands.

Germany was not alone in profiting from Czechoslovakia’s demise. On the 15th Hungary invaded and quickly overran the newly independent Republic of Carpatho-Ukraine, and in a subsequent border war annexed a strip of eastern Slovakia. The Poles for their part agreed to an extraterritorial highway linking East Prussia to Germany in exchange for Czechoslovakia’s extraterritorial harbour in Hamburg,[2] and would assist Hungary against Slovakia, annexing the Ruthenian majority Medzilaborce District.[3]

The government of Carpatho-Ukraine fleeing the Hungarian advance on foot.​

The battered Slovakia would in turn subordinate itself to Germany in exchange for guarantees that no further territorial reductions would befall it.

With this victory the Anti-Comintern Pact seemed totally ascendant, and with the West still out to lunch it seemed the Soviets would be next. In fact, the Polish ambassador to Japan would assure his hosts that war with the USSR could be guaranteed to breakout within the year.[4]


Disaster In High Command Part 2: A Demoralizing Voyage

Andrew McNaughton had been the Chief of Canada’s General Staff. In this role he had some significant interactions with the Royal Canadian Navy, most notably advocating for its total liquidation in 1933. This somewhat coloured relations between the 1st Division and the crews of the ships carrying them. While nowhere near the ferocity of the IJN-IJA rivalry, the RCN-Militia rivalry could still be unpleasant. Jeers and smack talk were common in any case where the officers weren’t around to maintain orderly conduct. Privately the officers found themselves at loggerheads as well, not that they would display such before their subordinates.

So the Canadians found themselves canned in with people they rather disliked.[5] For a mere jaunt across the Atlantic it may not have been so bad, but, starting March 17, the Canadians would spend over a month at sea. This included the lengthy process of filtering a respectably large fleet of transports, escorts, and one Fleet Carrier through the Panama Canal.

On the other side the fleet was joined by some additional merchant vessels and HMS Canada. HMS Canada was a bit of an odd fit for the fleet. It was the only coal fired ship in the fleet, necessitating the inclusion of a fleet collier. Fear of Japanese submarines had lead the workers at the Esquimalt Graving Yard to do it up in Great War era splinter camouflage, which made it look even more out of place and, “... painful to bear witness to.”[6] Beyond the new paint job, its refit in Esquimalt amounted to some minor mechanical maintenance (fortunately the Chileans had kept her in good shape) and the addition of eight quad mount “pom-poms” that were bolted onto the deck. Esquimalt didn’t have the capability to do too much more, not that Churchill was giving them much time to begin with.

Another unusual element of the fleet was the Motor Landing Craft, something of a fore bearer to the LCM and LCA.​

The fleet, now fully assembled, set off on the longest leg of its journey, the 11.4 thousand kilometre journey to Suva were the troops would get a chance to reacquire their land legs prior to plunging into the Solomons.

This was a long journey and tensions between the Militiamen and sailors ran high. A matter not eased by McNaughton’s insistence that the division drill on deck and conduct room clearing exercises within the ships so are to cap off their lead in training. Needless to say such antics caused the sailor’s patience to wear thin. Incidents of disorderly conduct increased in frequency over the course of the journey.

Adding to tensions was the fear of Japanese submarines. However, Japan's obsession with fleet on fleet engagements meant that their powerful submarine arm wasn't to be "wasted" on merchant shipping. In addition, it would seem that the thrust from the Americas was genuinely unexpected and came through a minimally patrolled area.




Fratricide: The Chinese Civil War in Japan’s Rear Areas

An NRA affiliated guerilla fighter showing off his Chiang Kai Shek Rifle and well camouflaged shelter. ​

Chinese killing Chinese was nothing new. The death tolls of the warlord period and First Civil War had cost China millions of civilians and soldiers alike.

Since the commencement of hostilities the collaborationist regimes of Manchukuo, Mengjiang, Beijing, and Nanjing had fielded armies of their own against their fellow Chinese. These soldiers were predominantly tasked with maintaining order behind Japanese lines, and as such frequently found themselves in conflict with anti-Japanese guerillas.

Beyond this, the disruption of the war enabled apolitical bandits to access weapons and freely organize, bringing them into conflict with both pro- and anti-Japanese forces. This however was not the only cause of Chinese on Chinese violence that did not directly correspond to the sides of the war.

Behind Japanese lines, the Second United Front had already collapsed. Japan’s rapid advance had allowed cadres of the Chinese Communist Party to infiltrate Japan’s rear areas. Here they expanded and organized to become the most powerful anti-Japanese guerilla faction. A fact they wanted to further cement.

While the conventional forces of the CCP, the Eighth Route Army, were mostly subordinate to the NRA’s chain of command, the CCP’s insurgents believed the opposite should be true. Since late 1938 the CCP’s forces had been attacking KMT aligned and other anti-Japanese guerilla outfits that refused to subordinate themselves to the CCP’s direction, often baselessly decrying their foes as collaborators or bandits.

In Hubei province, where the recent fighting had left the Japanese forces quite depleted, this allowed KMT-Communist fighting to take centre stage. The Japanese widely publicized the Chinese infighting in a successful effort to ramp up tensions between the guerillas. As word spread so to did the violence, the most notable episode being in distant Hebei where the brigade sized Hebei People’s Army was wiped out entirely by the CCP’s forces by March 31st.

China’s Second United Front was already a write off.

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[1] Czechoslovakia’s name is often hyphenated (Czecho-Slovakia) to denote this brief period.

[2] Moldauhafen.

[3] Probably saving the region’s Jewry from the Hlinka Guard.

[4] Almost certainly an exaggeration, neither the logistics or interoperability for an anti-Communist crusade could possibly be established in such a timeframe, especially if one were to, reasonably, write off attacking during the Fall or Winter. However this goes a long way to explaining Japan’s cavalier attitude towards the USSR.

[5] Each other.

[6] from the memoirs of Desmond William Piers, then First Lt. of HMCS Restigouche.

A/N:
Sorry for the wait and sorry for the one to come. I have a completely packed month ahead so sadly I'd advise that you don't expect anything until December.

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

Australia’s Aid: The Push on Papua

For months the front on Papua had stalled. The Australians were, if not particularly pleased to have lost so much land, at least pleased to have halted the Japanese advance soon enough to have staved off the existential threat to their continent. As their green divisions were hardened by the fighting in the Port Moresby Pocket and the supply situation worked itself out, it began to look like an offensive might be possible. Desirable, even, given the current direction of the Empire’s grand strategy.

The Japanese hadn’t been idle since their initial offensives. Unable to ship the 12th Army over to Borneo in face of local British naval superiority, some portion of these forces were instead sent east. With the Solomons quite quiet and an active front on Papua, the question of which front to reinforce was quite obvious. All intelligence indicated that this was indeed the case and the Solomons were still garrisoned by an oversized brigade.

Operation Ballpine took full advantage of this, the sheer numbers of the First Canadian Division would brush aside the overextended Japanese forces on the Solomons and then make the jump over to Papua, pending reinforcement. Outflanked and cut off from their naval life lines, the Japanese forces on Papua would then be decisively defeated.

Of course, the possibility of reinforcements quickly moving over from Papua put the entire operation in jeopardy. So it was up to the Australians to ensure that the IJA’s finest remained pinned in place.

That left the question of what exactly to do. Driving the Japanese off the island entirely was still an entirely unrealistic premise. At the same time merely expanding the perimeter around Port Moresby potentially wouldn’t have the desired effect on the IJA’s officers. It was eventually decided that the airfield at Kokoda would be an adequate strategic goal.

With the Canadians due to land on the 25th of April, the Australians had to move fast. Significant shortages of munitions and parts for heavier weapons still existed, but it was imagined that they wouldn’t be able to make any use of those anyways once they reached the trail.

The Japanese for their part were caught flat footed by the all out barrage let loose by the Australian guns on the 3rd. They were not given time to regain their footing as the Australian infantry advanced in overwhelming numbers. Additionally, RAAF Hawker Hurricanes piloted by RAF “instructors” prevented the IJAAF from intervening. The Kokoda Trail Campaign had gotten off to a smashing start.

Or at least it seemed to. In areas where the Japanese trenches had been broken up by the barrage, the tenacity of the Japanese soldier still made itself known with many isolated platoons fighting to the last. Fortified areas that had remained intact simply failed to fall, and the Australian First Division had to remain behind to invest these pockets of protracted resistance while the other two divisions pressed on to keep the Japanese in retreat.

Australian high command had ruled out the use of heavy equipment, and even medium equipment on the trail. Rough terrain with poor infrastructure forbid the movement of such weapons, and the dense forestation would have sufficiently limited fields of fire to remove any utility of such weapons. The Japanese were apparently unaware of these facts. Rather than the much hyped bayonet, the Type 92 “heavy” machine gun, Type 11 infantry gun, and mortars of all calibres proved to be the bane of the Australian infantryman on the trail.

Australian soldiers pose with some captured Japanese weapons.​

Infiltration tactics were used to limit the effect of these weapons, and the Bren was relied upon even more. However, manportable firepower was urgently needed.


The Future of Warfare Unveiled? The Push On Borneo

April brought yet more reinforcements to the British lines on Borneo. Specifically, the South African 1st Division added itself to the array of units in the theatre. With its arrival it became clear that the Borneo Corps was getting to be a little on the larger side of things. Simply splitting it into two corps would be the easiest, a Commonwealth Corps for the South Africans and New Zealanders,[1] and an Empire Corps containing the British and Indian units. That, however, would require the establishment of an Army. By extension that would mean assigning a General.

As the man already commanding the forces in the theatre, Lieutenant General Auchinleck seemed the obvious choice. However, with having become Lieutenant General just earlier that same year there was some consternation in the army bureaucracy about an officer rising the ranks too quickly. Lord Gort, the British Army’s C-in-C, had recently arrived in Singapore, and now resolved to visit Borneo so as to assess Auchinleck’s qualities and the general condition of the front.

If he wanted to see the Auk in action then he’d picked an advantageous time, as the Borneo Corps had reached the Batang Suai River. Standing about midway between Bintulu and Miri, this river constituted the most substantial natural obstacle between the British and Japanese supply centres. It also represented the first significant Japanese defensive line on the island. Punching through would be no easy task.

An example of the sort of defensive earthworks that the IJA could quickly assemble.​

Worse, not much further beyond was the Sungai Niah River. The breakthrough and exploitation would have to be quite quick if it were to successfully prevent the Japanese from rallying at a suspected fallback position there.

To force the river, the Auk had prepared an array of measures. For one the Corps’ artillery and local air support had been prepared to suppress the Japanese positions that had been located by meticulous aerial reconnaissance. Far further up river, the Sarawak constabulary was able to cross the river under cover of darkness and was running interference behind enemy lines. Nearer the coast the heavy cruisers Devonshire and Sussex moved in to lend their 8” naval rifles to the bombardment.

The Burma Corps itself lacked the sort of high mobility off road vehicles that would be needed to pursue and outpace the retreating Japanese. Accordingly, it would fall to the air and naval forces to hamper their retreat and preemptively compromise the Japanese defences along the Sungai Niah.

The early hours of the 5th of April were disturbed by by the roar of a creeping barrage that wouldn’t have been out of place in the late stages of the Great War. Under cover of the advancing curtain of fire and shrapnel, the Borneo Corps crossed and pressed into the reinforced division. The first unit across was a company of the 4th Battalion, 12th Frontier Force Regiment under the command of acting Captain Sam Manekshaw.

A quick breakout from their bridgeheads was not forthcoming on account of the depth of the Japanese fortifications. Once more parallels to the Great War were abundant as sporadic close quarters fighting clogged the trenches for nearly a day. However, the Japanese eventually fell back towards their next line of defenses.

On the sixth day, respite came for the Japanese. A surge of air power, facilitated by the timely arrival of the First Air Fleet[2] finally ended the constant RAF counter battery and interdiction missions and sunk both heavy cruisers while they were nearly stationary for shore bombardment.

Under these conditions, the battered 16th Division halted its retreat well short of the Sungai Niah, and instead counter-attacked upon linking up with the Imperial Guards Division. Back and forth fighting between the rivers devolved into a complete stalemate by the 18th.

The joys of writing up campaigns that never happened, finding strategic geography yourself rather than just plucking it from a history book.​

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[1] Who still had the Sarawak Constabulary loosely attached.

[2] This being the mission to recover Akagi’s air compliment.

A/N:

Shorter than anticipated, but what I anticipated was a bit too big for a single update.

Tune in next week as we get set for Operation Ballpine to land and for the long awaited India Update!

Oh and as promised, Merry Cringemas to all!

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

Disaster In High Command III: Landfall

On the 25th of April the 14” shells of HMS Canada fell upon the shores of Bougainville, flattening the Japanese beach defences and allowing the Canadians to land unopposed.

Any jubilation the Canadians may have felt upon making landfall was misplaced and unwarranted. The Japanese had enjoyed about three days' notice of the fleet’s approach. While not enough time to meaningfully reorganize their assets or get reinforcements, it was more than enough time to build decoy trenches near the shoreline and better camouflage their actual fortifications further inland.

Just beyond the tree-line, Japanese soldiers carefully observed as their opponents waded ashore. They continued their observations, noting how slowly they advanced, and where gaps formed in their patrols. During the nights, the Japanese made daring raids, dragging Canadians soldiers off into the jungle for interrogation. Sometimes, they would leave a grizzly mess for the Canadians to discover the next morning.

The knowledge gained from these observations and interrogations lead the Japanese to believe the Canadian officers to be both incompetent and unconfident. Furthermore they painted a quite clear picture of the corruption and cronyism that plagued the Canadian Militia.

The Japanese acted accordingly. Confident that their enemy would always act in the absolute most predictable manner the Japanese laid ambushes, conducted flanking maneuvers, and generally dictated the course of the conflict despite being a mere company confronted by a Brigade sized detachment.

Soldiers of the 1st Canadian Division with bayonets affixed.​

What these lessons and assumptions did not account for was the quality of the Canadian soldier. While the sixth division had experience in spades, having participated in many campaigns in China, the months spent cooling their heels occupying the island may have taken their edge off. They found themselves taken aback by the speed with which Canadian artillery dismantled their carefully laid killboxes. They were astonished by how aggressively the Canadians moved in battle, even more so to find that their enemies were as willing to resort to the bayonet as they were.[1] Those Japanese that surrendered didn’t live long enough to be amazed by the Canadian’s penchant for vengeance.

How much longer the Canadian soldier would be able to compensate for the inadequacies of their officers remained to be seen.

Across the island chain things played out similarly, with the Canadians slowly and disorderly winning battles that should have never been in doubt to begin with.The division’s poor leadership had failed to swiftly take the islands. Worse, many of the IJA’s outlying personnel had managed to escape to the as of yet untouched island of New Britain, where they rallied with their main force. By mid May the window for Churchill’s planned swift campaign was closing, and it was clear a protracted battle for New Britain was unavoidable.


Revolution vs Electoralism: India’s Fabians Add Fuel To the Flames

India was restless. This wasn’t necessarily due to the war: India had been a prickly subject ever since the Amritsar Massacre twenty years prior. The war had however made things somewhat worse.

The militant leader of the Indian National Congress, Subhas Chandra Bose, advocated a hardline of mass civil disobedience, but found it hard to find firm enough footing to enact it. His leadership of the congress was strongly challenged by a clique led by Mahatma Gandhi. In an effort to rejuvenate his base, he took a more extreme line, going so far as to threaten revolution against the British, and was arrested for sedition.

Realizing the colony had been brought to the brink of civil war, the British quickly bowed to popular pressure to release Bose, allowing him to escape abroad in November.

The Ghandi-clique quickly filled the power vacuum in the Indian National Congress, which was still quite miffed by the lack of consultation between the Viceroy and the Congress in the declaration of war. While there had been some consultations prior to the Great War, this time the colonial authorities hadn’t reached out to any of the subcontinent’s political groupings. Accordingly, civil disobedience continued.

Adding to matters, India’s sectarian streak was flaring up again. While the secular, yet overwhelmingly Hindu, INC advocated disobedience, the Muslim League offered its unconditional support to the colonial authorities. This ramped up tensions considerably further as both sides accused the other of exploiting the conflict to grab power, and riots in Bengal over the winter months forced the Indian 5th Division to forego its planned deployment to Borneo.

Beneath all these problems a more obscure matter took place. Since the mid-30s, the Congress Socialist Party[2] had absorbed many more radical left wing movements, yet their leadership remained devoted to the democratic process, and quite skeptical of Bose’s authoritarian tendencies. This rift between the party centre and its newer cadres would only grow as the drama around Bose’s fall from grace played out.

The straw that broke the camel’s back came in April, when the party line was to endorse Gandhi's leadership of the INC. The newer cadres still believed that they owed their loyalty to Bose and voted accordingly, going so far as to denounce their “spineless” leaders during the INC’s annual session. The old guard were not interested in stooping down to the level of their new peers, and turned the other cheek, for the time.

The Congress Socialist Party was ready when the new cadres persisted in advocating for a general strike to paralyze the Raj and even encouraged preparations for an armed rebellion. On the first of May, the Congress Socialist Party banned all communists from its ranks and initiated a purge of the New Cadres.

Unfortunately for all involved, the New Cadres had done more than advocate a revolutionary line, they stockpiled weapons for it. On May 3rd a pipe bomb was lobbed through the window of party founder Acharya Narendra Deva’s residence, killing him and a family member.

Acharya Narendra Deva was a founding member of the CSP. Having been jailed by British authorities many times none would have assumed that fellow nationalists would be the ones to take his life.​

While the upper ranks of the CSP mourned the loss of their beloved pacifist, the lower ranks of the party took matters into their own hands. On May 11, a worker walked off the line at the Ishapore Rifle Factory with an SMLE, met up with a colleague who provided him with ammunition. Together they shot and killed a local labour agitator who had come out in favour of the newly formed Revolutionary Socialist Party. A wave of tit-for-tat killings erupted across cities and the countryside alike.

The British authorities were concerned, but altogether clueless how to respond.


Both Feet In The Grave: Skirmishes Around Nomonhan

Far to the north, the Soviets prepared to once more test their unwanted neighbour’s readiness and resolve. While they’d come up short in previous engagements, Stalin had given Far Eastern commander Grigori Shtern the directive to pursue another confrontation should Japan experience any setbacks in its war with Britain.

Opportunity for such a confrontation was a bit harder to find than in prior years. The Soviet-Manchukuo border had been settled in the talks that followed the Battle of Lake Khasan, meaning that border disputes were harder to come by.

The Mongolia-Manchukuo border on the other hand remained rather ill defined, especially in the area of the Khalkhin River. In early May this area flared up as a Mongolian border patrol crossed the Khalkhin River and moved to occupy the village of Nomonhan. It was however intercepted and driven back by a Manchukuoan cavalry detachment, which in turn prompted a more substantial Mongolian force to enter the disputed territory. Forces of Japan’s 23rd Division entered the disputed area and found that the Mongolians had already withdrawn to the other side of the river. The 23rd division commander, Lieutenant General Michitarō Komatsubara, requested an air strike on the Mongol forces across the river. This alarmed the Mongols who requested the support of their patron, the Soviet Union.

Predicting that this would be where tensions flared up next, the Soviets had already stationed a mechanized corps in the area. This force consisted of one motorized rifle division, one tank brigade, and three armoured car brigades, and was under the command of Nikolai Feklenko.

A knocked out Soviet BA-10M armoured car. These vehicles boasted armour, armament, and off road mobility comparable to contemporary light tanks, yet their debut at Khalkhin Gol left much to be desired.​

Feklenko, however, was not in position to organize his men. From distant Ulaanbaatar he arranged for a portion of his motorized infantry and artillery to accompany the Mongolians into the disputed zone. A series of skirmishes allowed the Soviets to build a bridge across the river. On the 28th of May 2,250 men of the joint Soviet-Mongol force swept through the disputed region and seized the village of Nomonhan, encountering only a Japanese reconnaissance force along the way.

A regiment of the 23rd Division succeeded in forcing the Soviets out of the village, but failed to push the Soviets back across the river. This was very bad, especially from Moscow’s perspective.

By now, Stalin had lost his patience with Feklenko’s hands off leadership. It was clear that war with Germany was inevitable, and he needed to give Japan a reason to think twice about opening a second front. Red Army Headquarters dispatched Russian Civil War veteran Georgy Zhukov to relieve Feklenko, and allocated additional mechanized forces as well as a substantial air component.

On the other side, Michitarō Komatsubara requested assistance from his parent unit, Hitoshi Imamura’s 4th Army.[3] It was time for the victor of Hong Kong to step up to the plate.


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[1] A consequence of the Canadian militia’s excessive focus on its artillery arm was that its neglected infantry retained some outdated facets, including a somewhat outsized focus on bayonet drill.

[2] Yet another clique within the INC.

[3] The need to reallocate units from Manchuria to China resulted in an expansion of the 4th Army’s area of responsibility, such that it was responsible for the northern and northwestern frontier.

A/N:
It’s baaaaaaack~
I hope you can forgive me for taking some time off over the holidays (no I wasn’t traveling!), and just a bad case of writer’s block afterwards. Hopefully I can get back to more frequent updates now.
If not, I’ll make a discord channel titled It’s A Long Way To The Next Update where you can pester me to work on the TL.

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

Shaking the Steppe: The Wagyu Locks Horns With The Gorbatov

The Kwantung Army had long held a dismissive view of the Soviets. They also held a dismissive view of Hitoshi Imamura due to the exact circumstances of his victory in Hong Kong. Accordingly, the officers in Ryojun were not particularly pleased with the situation to their northeast. At the same time, they were adverse to shaking up the command of the 4th Army while it was in combat. Instead they begrudgingly reinforced him.

Fortunately for them, Hitoshi Imamura was more than just a competent yet insubordinate division commander who’d been promoted as a way to expediently remove him. A fact that the Soviets were loath to discover.

One of the most important new arrivals to Imamura’s camp was Lieutenant General Masaomi Yasuoka, former head of the IJA’s tank school. With him came a two regiment strong armoured detachment, including 38 medium tanks, 35 light tanks, and 14 tankettes.

Another important arrival was that of the IJAAS’ 2nd Air Brigade. While less than half the strength of the Soviet air forces participating in the battle, their planes were generally more modern and their pilots much more experienced.

Guidance from Tokyo and Ryojun was minimal and almost contradictory in nature. Imamura was tasked with winning the dispute, but not escalating the matter into a full blown war.[1] It seemed no one was willing to risk responsibility for a third “accidental” war. Yet neither was anyone willing to out themselves as a defeatist by suggesting de-escalation.

Imamura interpreted this as instructions to quickly and decisively win. This would be an issue, as the severe limitations of the region’s infrastructure meant that the strength of the 4th Army couldn’t be brought to bear. However, it was clear that the Soviets were at least equally hamstrung by their own logistical circumstances. In particular they had an obvious bottleneck in the form of the pontoon bridges across the Khalkhin River.

Like any good plan, it began with a feint. The 4th army surrendered land, even Nonomhan, over the course of the skirmishes in early June. The Soviets were drawn forward, away from the bridges that formed their delicate lifeline.

Just after midnight on June 12th the Soviet bridge was struck by Japanese planes as it was illuminated by the headlights of a convoy. At dawn Komatsubara’s 23rd division attacked west with the sun to their backs. To its north, the 1st Division pressed in on the Soviet forces around the village of Nonomhan. Further north west, Yasuoka’s detachment, supplemented by the 44th truck brigade, cut south and dashed towards the Soviet bridges.

The Soviets had been expecting an attack, but not quite this. A corps level combined arms attack was still a few rungs higher on the escalation ladder than what the Soviets had been expecting. 15cm rounds tore up their field fortifications while the rising sun and lack of radio equipped forward observers prevented the Soviet guns on the west bank from providing effective fire throughout the morning. By midday they were able to spot for their own artillery thanks to their elevated position, but by then the forces they were meant to support were already retreating in disarray from Nonomhan.

To the north, the Yasuoka Detachment encountered greater difficulties, as the superb Soviet 45mm gun had significantly better range than the 37mm anti-tank guns and 57mm medium velocity guns that armed the Japanese vehicles. The force accordingly had to rely substantially upon the attached truck borne infantry as their mortars and infantry guns were able to effectively suppress anti-tank guns and the more lightly armoured vehicles. Still, the 4th Army’s reserve had to be deployed in support of the enveloping maneuver.

The Type 97 Chi Ha was the most modern Japanese tank during the operation. While it had some good characteristics it's medium velocity 57mm gun was not one of them.​

Zhukov tried to reinforce the forces on the east bank via a series of submerged bridges. Yet the actual crossings revealed their locations and invited air and artillery attack. Consequently the envelopment was completed by the 18th.

On the 20th Zhukov attempted to coordinate a joint break-in break-out operation, extensively supported by SB fast bombers, and managed to restore control over the east bank. However, a strong Japanese counter attack reestablished the envelopment the following day after the Soviet planes were hit on the ground.

Frantic cables to Moscow requesting additional assets were turned down. The situation in the summer of 1939 was such that Stalin couldn’t afford to weaken his stance in Europe. The battle was lost.


Disaster In High Command IV: Bloody New Blighty

In the skies over New Britain, the final generation of biplanes faced off against the first generation of low wing monoplanes. The Ki-27 of the IJAAS faced off against FDB-1s flyingin from the surrounding islands, and the disparity between the two was smaller than one may have expected. Provided they weren’t carrying a bomb load, the FDB-1 wasn’t much slower than the Ki-27, while being more maneuverable and better armed. Still, the need to ditch their bomb load the instant an enemy plane was spotted meant that the Fighter Dive Bomber-1s were failing the DB part of their name more often than not.

The Japanese had realized this, and would frequently make only a single pass on their enemies, knowing that even if they failed to shoot down anything they had still foiled the Canadian’s operation. Such tactics saved fuel and eliminate the risk of getting in a turning fight against a biplane.[2]

The Skuas aboard Ark Royal were another first gen low wing monoplane that underperformed. Being even slower than the FDB-1 and worse in every way than the Ki-27 was a bad look for the FAA’s newest fighter.

With the war in the air not yielding any particular advantage to the Commonwealth forces, it fell once more to naval gunfire to flatten a landing zone. On June 13th HMS Canada unleashed yet another broadside. It and its escorts would fire for only an hour before the Canadians made their assault on Uvol.

Even that much was unneeded as the Uvol region was occupied only by terrified natives. As the Canadians pressed inland they found little sign of Japanese presence beyond the occasional airplane. For many soldiers it was only after they’d marched for a day without reaching the Island’s north coast that they realized just how big the island was. While they’d done their training in the Caribbean, New Britain was actually much more like Vancouver Island in terms of sheer size and terrain features. Accordingly, they were very far away from Rabaul.

It was then that Mcnaughton commenced his plan, dividing his force in two, with one brigade traveling west to prevent the Japanese reinforcing from nearby Lae, and the other two moving east towards Rabaul. To facilitate faster movement some forces re-embarked their landing ships and motored along the coasts.

A new piece of equipment, the Canadian Military Pattern Truck, arrived that month, and its reliable engine and 4x4 drive gave it good off road characteristics. Accordingly it wasn’t long before these logistics vehicles were being used to ferry soldiers through the island’s interior to attack airfields and fortifications. During these sweeps of the interior one thing became clear: there was far more than a single brigade on the islands.

In fact, reinforcements from Lae and Truk had brought the Japanese presence on the island up to division strength. Further, the Japanese continued to demonstrate excellence in lateral and retrograde manoeuvres. The Canadian’s fast trucks often carried them directly into ambushes.

Before the month was through the Canadian advance had not only stalled, but they were pressed back into the Uvol-Mataburu Corridor.

Lieutenant-General McNaughton's over cautious selection of landing sights, slow movement and piecemeal advance has been strongly criticized by military historians and contemporary observers alike.​

The Siege of Niah: The Upside Down Mesopotamia Campaign is Turned on its Head

By June the Borneo Corps was on the move again. On the tenth The Indian 4th Division was able to reach the banks of the Niah river, with the 5th Brigade, composed of the Gurkha and Rajput Battalions, occupying the town of Niah.

It seemed the Borneo Corps was finally going to push beyond the region between the Batang Sui and the Sungai Niah. That miserable stretch of jungle, which some had taken to cheekily calling upside down Mesopotamia on account of its position between the two rivers, had claimed the lives of thousands of men over the preceding months. The news prompted celebration as the final push to evict the Japanese from Borneo would surely soon be at hand.

Yet it was not to last. The 6th Army counter attacked during the night, and even forwent artillery support to maximize surprise. By morning the Japanese had assembled a powerful striking force in their newly acquired bridgeheads and proceeded to push the 4th Division back. Only the 5th brigade under Brigadier William Slim was able to hold its ground. The town of Niah was enveloped as a consequence.

Brigadier Slim in campaign hat.​

Abruptly, the British tune changed. Some more superstitious officers went so far as to ban their men from using the term “upside down Mesopotamia”. Some recalled the actual Mesopotamian Campaign during the Great War, and the comparison was no longer welcome now that the Siege of Kut seemed to be playing out again in small scale.

Desperate to avoid catastrophe, Auchinleck arranged for supplies to be air dropped on the town. Every measure that could prolong the 5th Brigade’s resistance was undertaken. Not only was rescuing the brigade a top priority, but it was also imperative to deny the Japanese that town. As the hub of the roads and trails in the region the 6th Army was effectively paralyzed so long as they didn’t hold the town.

As the days passed it became apparent to both sides that the action at Niah would likely be the decisive action of the Borneo Campaign.


Catch Your Breath: Japanese Grand Strategy While Pressed On Four Fronts

Japan’s various successes during the month of June had been quite a windfall for the beleaguered island nation. To the south their forces successfully frustrated the advance of a numerically superior British force. To the north they had dealt a humiliating blow to the Soviet Union. Best of all, they had accomplished all of that without withdrawing any further forces from China. Unfortunately, these victories largely served to reinforce the delusion that Japan might win.

During the liaison conference on the 30th of June, the main subject was what to do about the Soviet situation. Japan had a strong hand given the scale of its victory and the situation in Europe. Thanks to the relative restraint Imamura had shown,[3] Japan could even approach these negotiations from a position of moral legitimacy.

There were, however, different ideas on what exactly Japan needed, and as typical of the period, it largely came down to the Army vs the Navy.

The IJN saw the USSR as a backstop. Anything to ensure peace in Japan’s northern waters was needed. Better yet, the USSR’s vast oil reserves made the Soviets an ideal trading partner for Japan, given how quickly its shipping capacity was disintegrating due to the British submarines.

The IJA felt the IJN should shut up and stop trying to reap benefit from a battle it played no part in. The IJA held the Soviet Union in absolute contempt. To them the arrogance and self-entitlement of the colonial powers was not nearly as offensive as the continued existence of the USSR. The IJA wanted to be free to cleave off the Russian Far East as soon as Germany moved to do in the Bolshevik regime. It accordingly was very strongly opposed to any non-aggression pact.

Imperial General Headquarters. Naval officers are seated to the left, army officers to the right. The gap between the two sides presumably existed to prevent disagreements from turning violent.​

Given the division in the military, and the fact that all the rabid young officers were fortunately at the front, it seemed that the foriegn ministry was going to be able to decide matters for itself for once. One thing all parties agreed on was that getting the USSR to recognize the Imperial State of Manchukuo would be a diplomatic coup de main.

---

[1] Something Japan wasn’t prepared for in the summer of 1940.

[2] Yes, I have concocted circumstances in which the Japanese are the ones doing Boom and Zoom. God help us.

[3] in terms of treatment of POWs, bombing the Soviet airfield had been a dangerous escalation.

A/N:
Sorry for the long wait, between the job search and winter lethargy it has been really slow going on this one. I guess I’ll make the discord group now… (message me for deets)

Japan seems to have found its footing, question is how long it can keep it while Britain dials up its commitment to the Far East. Next time we’ll probably look at international developments once more.

Also, I noticed that some of the pictures from earlier in the thread have broken, so I'll see to fixing those...

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

Stalin’s Nightmare: The Lwow Wargames

Stalin’s willingness to de-escalate matters with Japan, even at a loss, can largely be chocked up to developments in Europe. While Zhukov’s forces were being bagged up in the east, it became crystal clear just how real the threat posed by the German led block was.

June 1st represented the start of the colossal Lwow Wargames. These army level manoeuvres in eastern Poland involved four Polish corps, and a number of brigade sized formations from Hungary and Romania. These were joined by an even more diverse horde of observers from the UK, Belgium, Turkey, France, Italy, Estonia, Latvia, Germany, and even the recently reunited Spain.[1]

Ostensibly these manoeuvres were meant to simulate a response to an invasion of Poland by “Green Force”. However, the actual manoeuvres focused substantially on the prospect of a mobile counter attack, rather than any defensive actions by “Blue Force”. Furthermore, when the Green Force was encircled around Lwow the mobile elements of Blue Force pressed on, leaving only a smaller siege force to deal with the city. This strongly indicated that the tactics being tested were offensive in nature, and not meant to be employed on Polish soil.[2]

Besides offensive maneuvers, the war games were an opportunity to practice interoperability, not just between the participating nations but also between land and air assets. Although, some of the German observers were critical of the lack of dive bombers.

Poland's German guests also took the opportunity to assess the quality of Poland’s infrastructure. Western and central Poland had a fairly dense road and rail network, with plenty of redundant capacity. The eastern regions however were far sparser. In the southeast, and especially around Lwow, the situation wasn’t too dire, but the northeast in particular had atrophied due to the lack of commerce with both the USSR and Lithuania. Furthermore, the vast Pripet Marshes created a logistical dead zone, for which there was no solution. Some noted that this could be to Poland's advantage, as it reduced the amount of border Poland had to defend, but others noted that the lack of infrastructure in Poland's northeast and southeast regions was made all the worse due to the lack of north-south infrastructure. One of the Heer officers in attendance suggested that Germany might be willing to invest in Eastern Poland's infrastructure in exchange for Poland consenting to Germany reintegrating the Free City of Danzig, but was swiftly reminded by one of their colleagues that the Heer was not involved in policy-making.

Polish infrastructure in 1939.​

The final opportunity offered by the wargames was a social one. While merely a sideshow to the main event, there was a series of functions held at various manor homes around Lwow. These gave a rare opportunity for the officers of the various nations to mingle outside of an official capacity. Allowing the German officers to directly interact with the men who maintained the military dictatorships in Poland, Hungary, and Spain,[3] had an immediate impact on the Heer. The Germans did their best to not be caught salivating over the situation in Poland and Hungary, where the coup plotters had aged like fine wine into internationally respected elder statesmen. This strongly contrasted with what they had previously observed of the Italians, their army crumbling under the weight of far too many political appointees. The extent to which this undermined the Heer’s “apolitical” traditions is perhaps best summed up by an apocryphal statement by Generaloberst Walther von Brauchitsch to General der Gebirgstruppe Günther von Kluge, “I’ve seen where we’re going, and I know where I’d like to end up.”


Renting Security for the Eastern Flank: Soviet Negotiators in Seoul

With Poland looking ready to descend on Moscow, Stalin was understandably very willing to cut a deal with Japan. Molotov’s instructions were to secure any peace that maintained the territorial integrity of the USSR, and importantly not make the USSR appear weak. The second of those requirements was nearly a lost cause from the outset.

Japan’s Foriegn Minister, Hachirō Arita, saw the negotiations within a framework of building a Japan-centric new order in East Asia. Everything down to the location of the negotiations was carefully calculated. It was hoped that hosting the USSR’s representatives in Seoul would discredit and demoralize the Communist Party of Korea.

1930s Seoul, known as Keijo under the Japanese.​

During these negotiations Minister Arita was very keen on the exact language, specifically where it concerned the common frontiers of the Soviet Union, Mongolian People’s Republic, Empire of Japan, and Empire of Great Manchuria. Arita recognized that he was unlikely to get the USSR to open an embassy in Hsinking. Yet, getting them to sight a treaty with them, one which explicitly names the Empire of Great Manchuria and concerns its sovereignty and territorial integrity, constituted diplomatic recognition.

On the subject of a non-aggression pact, Arita’s proposals were a compromise between those of the Army and Navy. He sought, and ultimately received a “rental agreement”. The Japanese observance of the non-aggression clauses would be conditional on the Japanese being able to order and receive up to 400,000 tons of oil each month at sub-market value.[4]

Additionally, a joint border monitoring force was established. As a single concession to Soviet honour, the treaty would be given a title that didn’t allude to the recent conflict. The “Agreement Concerning Commerce, Common Borders, and Cohabitation in North Asia” was signed in Seoul on the 4th of July and ratified by the relevant governments in the following weeks.

The Mongols were perhaps the most upset about the treaty, given it voided many of their territorial claims. That it didn’t affect their claims further south and west was their one consolation. Not that they could act on them.


The Italy of Asia: From Siam to Thailand

Siam had had a tumultuous time during the 1930s. In 1933 General Phraya Phahol seized power in a military coup. Since then the country had endured rebellion, partial redemocratization, political crisis, and in December of 1938 the dictator stepped down. His replacement, Field Marshal Plaek Phibunsongkhram (Phibun for short)[5] retrenched the dictatorship and set about modernizing the country along the lines of Fascist Italy.

While his predecessor encouraged the adoption of the Roman salute, the Phibun encouraged the adoption of western clothes and utensils. More importantly, Phibun also pursued industrialization through autarky, raising new tariffs and involving the government in the creation of new industries. He also fostered nationalism and even supported irredentist claims.

Period leaflet showing non-permitted and permitted dress.​

On June 24th, he issued the first of his Cultural Mandates. Here he clarified that the country was to be exclusively referred to as Thailand, and that it’s people were to be exclusively known as Thais.

To the surprise of Phibun and many others this proved to be a more complicated matter than Iran’s name change earlier in the decade. Lord Halifax politely declined on the grounds that the name suggested territorial claims to much of Northern Burma.[6] The Republic of China followed suit in protest of the Siamese government’s open persecution of the nation’s Chinese minority.

Phibun did not take this slight sitting down, and on the 3rd of July issued another mandate, this time issuing proscriptions against engaging in international business. In particular it equated business with the British and their subjects to treason. Siam’s name would remain a subject of contention for some time.


Laying Down Hulls in the Post-Treaty Era: South Dakota Reborn

Let us return now to America, whose military had thus far been closely watching the war in Asia. With glacial speed, the military establishment and the nascent interventionist faction began producing tangible results. As with all products of American politics, it occurred primarily on the basis of personalities and circumstances.

The key personality in this instance was Assistant Secretary of the Navy Charles Edison, son of Thomas Edison. Edison had an interest in battleships and, with the declining health of the penny pinching Secretary of the Navy[7] and the implosion of the treaty system, he was well positioned to get his way.

It wasn’t long after the start of the Anglo-Japanese War that he ordered a reassessment of the hulls to be laid down in 1939. The assumption that war between two of the Treaty powers meant a defacto end to the regulations of the treaty guided the initial design of a greatly lengthened ship that would be capable of 33 knots to keep up with the carriers. The decisive influence of shell size and naval gunnery during the Battle Off Borneo however caused a change of course.

The revised South Dakota design of 1939 very closely resembled the 1920 South Dakota design. Having been lengthened to accommodate a fourth triple turret,[8] the design now weighed in at an eye watering 47,000 tonnes. Getting the rest of DC to approve such an escalation, and accompanying price increase, would be a tough sell.

An illustration of a triple 16" turret.​

Throughout April and May Edison pressed the President on the need to prevent a gunnery gap, met with the relevant House committees, and quietly corresponded with representatives of the Neo-Preparedness Movement.[9] As the one who first invoked the escalator clause, President Roosevelt didn’t need much prodding to lend his public support. Similarly, the Neo-Prepardness Movement was willing to support anything that got America closer to a war footing. Congress and the Senate however still had powerful isolationists, pacifists, and penny pinchers. As the scheduled laying down date for the previously planned South Dakotas neared, it increasingly looked like the improved designs would have to be shelved, at least for the time being.

Unexpectedly, Poland provided the 11th hour miracle. The international section of every newspaper was almost exclusively occupied with the Lwow War Games and the accompanying naval manoeuvres for nearly the entire month of June. The few stories successfully wrestling page space away from depictions and descriptions of the proceedings were usually focused on the actual battles being fought in Manchuria and the Indo-Pacific. Letters by concerned citizens flooded into the halls of power. Perhaps the best illustration of the public’s distress came on the 15th of June when outspoken non-interventionist[10] Thomas E. Dewey admitted to a reporter that American neutrality would be contingent on America being strong enough to be taken seriously.

The time seemed right. The navy’s ability to fully make use of the escalator clause was put to the floor the following week. After a few rounds of impassioned speeches and a half baked filibuster attempt by an isolationist, the motion passed by a narrow margin.

BB-57 South Dakota would be laid down in accordance with the new design on July 5th.


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[1] Spain’s contribution was limited to a handful of officers and the heavy cruiser Canarias, yet it played an outsized role in the games. Green Force’s tactics were based on those employed by the Republicans during the Spanish Civil War, and, with 34 victories under its belt during the Spanish Civil War, the Canarias was made flagship of the Blue Force during the accompanying naval manoeuvres in the Baltic.

[2] As its political and emotional importance to the Polish nation would make retaking Lwow priority 1 in any actual war.

[3] While Spain was officially Fascist, the officers at Lwow made no effort to maintain the facade, and openly equated the SS and MVSN to the amateur militias they had humoured during the Civil War.

[4] The USSR’s ability to meet these deliveries while in a truly life or death struggle was doubtful.

[5] or, if you prefer the local nickname, Marshal P.

[6] In fact, the Burman nationalists briefly ceased their protests, strikes, and other efforts to hinder Britain’s war effort, and instead rioted against the Thai minority. The nationalist fervour died down somewhat after some segments of the nationalist’s leadership cooperated with the British to reign in the mob.

[7] Claude A. Swanson.

[8] There was also a scheme to keep it at 3 turrets, but to replace the planned 16”/45 guns with the 16”/50 guns left over from the 1920s South Dakotas and Lexingtons, yet these were soon appropriated for shore batteries.

[9] A catch all term for the China Lobby, Macarthur’s Philippine Lobby, Wendell Wilke’s Interventionist Lobby, and certain Atlanticists.

[10] who usually had a pretty firm read on the “pulse” of the populous.

A/N:

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

The Coffin Catches The Bone: France’s Diplomatic Headache

French diplomats had spent much of 1939 pulling their hair out in frustration. In a matter of months both of their central european policies had fallen apart. First the partition of Czechoslovakia made the Little Entente a dead letter. Worse, Poland was increasingly willing to break bread with Germany, and was seemingly pulling Romania along with it.

Nonetheless, France had accepted Poland’s invitation to observe the Lwow Wargames. The French, having some prior knowledge of Polish defence planning noted that practicing an elastic defense and mobile counter attack in Southeastern Poland was only a little different from their earlier plans to maintain that region as a national redoubt in event of an invasion. Their naval attaches were also keen to observe that much of what the Poles practiced at sea could be applied against the Kriegsmarine[1] just as easily as against the Soviet Baltic Fleet. Further, Poland’s efforts to get Romania and Hungary to work together strongly indicated that Poland’s recent erratic diplomacy was just the most recent iteration of the Intermarium Scheme.[2] Accordingly France was left with the troubling conclusion that Poland wasn’t necessarily abandoning them in favour of Germany, but that Poland was still no longer considering France’s interests in its diplomatic maneuvering.

Elsewhere, French diplomats fared little better. Efforts to secure Italian non-aggression continued to meander along in no discernable direction. France initially accepted Siam’s name change, then tried to reverse the matter when Britain and China rejected it, but found that undoing something is much harder than not doing it in the first place.

The one apparent success was the extent to which ambassador Petain impressed Spain’s new government.

In early July the French diplomatic corps was finally thrown a bone; the Soviets had finally gotten past their post-Munich hissyfit. On the 12th of July ambassador Paul-Émile Naggiar was summoned to the Kremlin. There he met with minister Molotov, Chief of Staff Boris Shaposhnikov, and the mustached Marxist himself, Stalin. That evening he cabled Paris to report that the Soviets sought to regain their alliance with France. However, they seemed intent that France needed to come to them with an offer, as they were evidently too proud to be the ones to admit that breaking ties over Munich had been a mistake.

The next day minister Georges-Étienne Bonnet summoned Ambassador Surits to confirm. Surits for his part had a well memorized presentation of Kremlin-coached talking points. The failure of appeasement, the absence of the UK from Europe, and Polish perfidy were once more rubbed in the exhausted foriegn minister’s wounds. Having confirmed that the Soviets were expecting an offer of alliance, Bonnet dismissed Surits without voicing any opinion on the matter.

While this was the sort of diplomatic breakthrough he’d been hoping for, it was also a complex matter that would no doubt ignite old divisions within the ministry and wider government. Not to mention that as the public face of France’s policy at Munich, he was disappointed to find himself strong-armed into walking it back.

In addition to the usual division between the pro-Soviet and anti-Soviet camps there was another aspect. France had previously had no issues maintaining separate alliances with the UK and USSR. Yet allying with a state provisioning Japan with war materials, while the UK was at war with Japan would be harder to swing.

There was also the suspicious matter of how quickly the French Communist Party changed its tune and began trying to reestablish the popular front government. Evidently some members of the PCF also found this unusually sudden; that month’s issue of Esprit contained an exposé by a PCF defector confirming that the snap change was the result of direct orders from Moscow. An understandable amount of press hysteria about Soviet meddling in France’s domestic politics followed, firmly tying the hands of the Foriegn Ministry for the time.

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[1] In fact, Germany’s Scharnhorst-class ships were assigned to the Green Force and served as stand ins for two Gangut class battleships.

[2] A diplomatic project to create a Polish-led power block in Eastern Europe stretching from the Baltic to the Black. It’s usual stumbling block, Czechoslovakia, no longer existed.

A/N:
Why is it that every time I mention battleships I end up having to do major revisions? Maybe I should hasten the rise of carriers so as to minimize this curse…

In any case, the Third Republic's political dysfunction is on full display, and I’ve revised the section on the Lwow Wargames in the least disruptive way I could. Familiarize yourself as you see fit.

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

Burning Beneath the Rising Sun: Wrapping Up Southern China

With its northern flank secured Japan was once more able to devote much needed attention to China. The Japanese had faced so many distractions from their campaign in China that it was almost hard to remember that the conflict with Britain began when their efforts to secure southern China went awry. The Battle of Hong Kong and the need to strike out at Britain before it could mobilize meant that planned follow ups to the Canton Operation never materialized. Those were now on the top of the todo list.

Their target list wasn’t all that long: the large island of Hainan, the major port city of Shantou, and Nanning, the primary economic centre of Guangxi Province. The issue was rather that these objectives were meant to have been accomplished by now. Every day that China wasn’t effectively land locked was another day of access to the international arms market. One thing in their favour now was that they had access to Hong Kong’s modern naval facilities as a launch pad.

Chiang’s intelligence offices were not blind to the increased naval activity. However, they had difficulty interpreting what it might mean. A further offensive in the Canton Area? A new landing elsewhere in Southern China? Another strike south against the British? Japan’s decision making had proven so unpredictable that Chiang even felt the need to warn France that Indochina might be Japan’s next target.[1] Chiang had only so many forces to spare, and seemingly every fishing village on the coast was a potential target in need of a garrison.

Eventually the NRA concluded that Japan’s use of Hong Kong indicated that it was intending to strike further west. Further, based on Japan’s previous amphibious operations they concluded that Japan would likely be limited to pursuing two targets at most. The NRA’s initial preparations focused on significant ports east of Canton, but the British attache urged that Hainan was likely Japan’s objective, as it would greatly improve the coverage of its airborne ASW patrols.

China was accordingly completely unprepared when a fairly light force from Formosa took Shantou and Chaozhou by storm on the 16th of July. As the NRA scrambled to reassess its deployments, the two forces from Hong Kong departed.

The smaller of these two forces landed in numerous spots around the island of Hainan. Despite weeks of alerts, the large NRA force on the island was not prepared for a Japanese attack. Rather, the local commander had the force dispersed throughout the interior fighting communists and suppressing the Li.[2] The developed coastal regions were quickly overrun and the bulk of the NRA’s force were defeated in detail. By the 23rd, major combat operations were concluded and the local NRA forces were reduced to a handful of guerilla formations in the island’s mountainous south.

IJA armour coming ashore on Hainan​

To the North, the 5th Division had landed on the coast of Qinzhou Bay and by the 25th had managed to capture the city of Qinzhou itself. Their efforts to push further, however, were frustrated by a spoiling attack conducted by mechanized elements of General Xu Tingyao’s 38th Group Army.

These new campaigns represented the start of an even grimmer chapter for Hong Kong, which had already suffered so much hardship. Many of the city’s sons would be yanked from their homes and press ganged into labour battalions, forced at bayonet point to assist in Japan’s campaigns and the economic exploitation of newly subjugated territories. The city’s daughters didn’t escape Doihara’s grasp either. The IJA had already established a number of brothels in the city to provide “comfort women” services. When the IJA moved on, they dragged their playthings along with them. This relentless exploitation of Hong Kong’s human resources, along with a number of deportation schemes and countless executions, would reduce Hong Kong from a happy city of 1.4 million to a mere 300 thousand by war’s end.


Break In And Through: The Siege of Niah

Far to the south, a different story unfolded. On Borneo, the Japanese had exhausted their offensive potential. Their efforts to overrun Niah were defeated by a series of “company boxes,” spaced such that they were able to mutually support each other. Slim’s 5th Brigade was also exhausted, as you’d expect of a force that had been besieged for nearly a month.

Further to the west, Auchinleck was feeling pressure to resolve the matter. From nearby Singapore, Lord Gort was effectively breathing down Auchinleck’s neck. This is not to say that the Auk didn’t grasp the severity of the situation facing the 5th Brigade. Rather, having been burnt multiple times by surprise Japanese counter attacks and rearguard actions, he was quite cautious in his inclinations, and hoped to wait for further reinforcement.

John Vereker, 6th Viscount Gort, was Chief of the Imperial General Staff and, as a proponent of the British Army, was intent that the land campaigns of the Anglo-Japanese War not be reduced to a mere sideshow to the naval war​

By mid July, Auchinleck had at last settled on a plan of attack. Between the 15th and 17th, British artillery engaged in sporadic high volume barrages of suspected Japanese positions. When the Japanese ceased replying on the 17th, the decision was made to attack the next day.

Starting at noon, the 5th Division pushed through the battered Japanese positions to link up with its stranded brigade, taking the fight further to the forces on the 5th Brigade’s flanks. The Indian 4th Division followed shortly behind, its mechanized forces acting as an exploitation force, charging through the village of Niah, and rolling over the Imperial Guards that stood between them and the river with their Matildas. They quickly spread along the bank of the river, isolating the two Japanese divisions from reinforcements and resupply. At the same time, further south, the New Zealand Division forded the river and looked to break into the IJA’s rear areas.

They didn’t find much. Far from a large supply line, they only found malnourished officers. The Japanese on Borneo seemed to be a spent resource. This fact was confirmed later that day when a recon flight spotted pillars of black smoke rising from Brunei’s oil wells. The Japanese had come to the island to capture those wells. If they were destroying them rather than defending them, then they believed their situation to be hopeless. The campaign wasn’t over yet, but it may as well have been.

Auchinleck had escaped Lord Gort’s attention, which now turned towards the increasingly dire situation on New Britain.

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[1] this was entirely unnecessary. Southern Area Army commander Kenji Doihara had promised harsh reprisals against any officer who so much as took a unit within two kilometres of the border with french Guangzhouwan. Given Doihara himself was no stranger to army adventurism, it’s likely Tokyo was riding his ass pretty hard on this point.

[2] drawing on his experience in Manchuria, Doihara quickly recognized the Li as the best candidates for collaborators. The Li themselves were less enthusiastic to betray their communist allies, but as the nationalist forces relentlessly exploited the Li to sustain their guerilla campaign, the Li, represented by Wang Guoxing, saw little recourse but to enter talks with the Japanese.

A/N:
Sorry it took so long to produce such a meagre update. I’m starting a new job, and that’s always going to cause some disruption.