August 29th, 1943
Kremlin - "There is a storm in the air, comrades!" This banal sentence is however heavy of meaning, because it is Stalin who expresses it, while he considers thoughtfully the Red Square, without seeming to be interested in his hosts, Marshals Zhukov and Vasilevsky. These are there to present one last time, and then to act on the launching - planned for tomorrow - of the new offensive that will conclude the succession of assaults carried out by the Red Army against the Axis this summer. Although, on reflection, it would be more accurate to speak of two new offensives: after Molot, Riga, Suvorov, it is indeed about Kutusov and Rumyantsev. But it is true that these two operations are closely complementary - for this duo must definitively the Fascists out of the Soviet Ukraine!
Kutousov's plan, established before Zitadelle and the dreaded German push towards Kiev, has little moved since May. Besides, why should it, since the Red Army has defeated? Tomorrow, at dawn, the 3rd Ukrainian Front (N.F. Vatutin), followed by the 3rd Belorussian Front (R.Y. Malinovsky) should leave their positions to march to the enemy on two main axes cutting three successive objective lines: Novohrad-Volynskyï first, then Rivne-Volodymyr-Volynskyï (south) and finally Olevsk-Sarny-Kovel (north) - from this last one, it will be possible to go back to Mozyr to encircle the German forces still present towards Chernobyl, in coordination with the 2nd Belorussian Front under Konev, engaged in Suvorov. The Stavka only adds a first step to cross the Uzh and seize Korosten... but it is not this one which motivates the circumspect look of Zhukov and Vassilevsky.
No, what worries the two soldiers is the disproportion between the ambitions - to cross the Uzh, the Sluch (or Sloutch), the Horyn and the Styr (among other things...), drive the enemy out of Ukraine and to go to dip its tracks in the Bug! - and the means. Because Comrade Vatutin's forces are worn out, decimated even by the heroic fight they have delivered less than a month ago. The 3rd Ukrainian Front is not able to sustain a prolonged effort. Fortunately, the 3rd Belorussian Front is in much better shape. The former Seym Front has not been called upon much since Karusel last December, and has been content since then to hold positions between Ukraine and Belarus, facing what remains in the former enemy salient east of Kiev - a salient that the Heer is gradually evacuating. The problem is that he wais s not too much of a priority in terms of reinforcements either! Rodion Malinovsky has at his disposal only two armored corps and four armies - one of which hs to stay in front of the remaining fascist positions north of Chernigov. These troops are certainly well rested; they have just been transferred to the west of Kiev (everyone pretends to have already forgotten that they were once kept as a last defense to defend the capital of the Ukrainian SSR against a possible German breakthrough). But they will not be able to do everything. In practice, it seems that Vatutin will have to sacrifice himself to obtain a breakthrough and allow Malinovsky to exploit...
However, Kutusov is not really risked for all that. Bordered on both sides by a natural protection - the Pripyat in the north and the southern Bug in the south - the forces which are not very vulnerable to an envelopment.
Moreover, at a date not yet specified (but which should be around September 12th), the 1st Ukrainian Front of Konstantin Rokossovsky and the 2nd Ukrainian Front of Ivan Bagramyan will unleash Rumyantsev! Just south of Vatutin, Rokossovsky will progress parallel to Kutousov, on a Starokonstantinov-Ternopil-Lvov axis. And on his left, one does not doubt that Bagramyan will be able to follow the movement in front of these Hungarians, in spite of his past setbacks during Koliouchka. Thus, in the improbable circumstance where Kutusov would trample, Rumyantsev will not fail to succeed more in the south!
Nazi reserves can't be everywhere, can they? And besides, what reserves? The Wehrmacht is bled dry, and it will have to deal with those damn Westerners one day. Westerners, who keep promising to come out of their inaction...
This is true - but the Red Army also suffered very heavy losses. And to attack on a wide front - even if the terrain is infinitely more favorable to maneuver than in Belarus - with decimated troops, is there not a risk of reproducing the... difficulties encountered by Suvorov, which is currently stalling in front of the Dnieper and the Sozh? Already listening to Vassilevsky detailing the multiple assault axes of Vatutin - Novohrad-Volynskyï, Korosten and Horshchyk, plus Narodytchi and Andrijevychi for diversions! - one wonders if one is in Ukraine or in Belarus... All this has a sour smell of déjà vu.
Because the Stavka plays a lot of its credibility on Kutusov and Rumyantsev - and Zhukov, no doubt, probably even more so. Even if Molot was a brilliant success, as well as Great Uranus, it must be noted that they were the only really successful attacks of the year, and that they had been mostly against the Romanians, who were hardly helped by the Germans. A great offensive victory against the Reich is definitely missing in this year 1943... So, what to do? Not to move before 1944? Give up the initiative to the enemy, who might come back stronger and better prepared? Watch the capitalists impose on Europe the exploitation of man by man? Without going to such an extreme, prudence could order to compromise.
But Stalin is hardly prudent when the stakes are political - and in the euphoria of the defensive and offensive successes won by the Red Army, the General Staff cannot do less than its supreme leader.
Moreover, it is perhaps from these reflections that the names of the two operations come: in 1791, General Mikhail Kutousov had led a successful charge against the Turks at Măcin before winning a decisive victory at Slobozia in 1811, against Ottomans four times more numerous... Is there a more appropriate patronage? Certainly, in Măcin, Kutousov was in exile in the Balkans, judged responsible for having lost against Bonaparte at Austerlitz - but since then, the French have become allies, almost comrades, and it seems that many of them are communists. And about Bonaparte, it was also Kutusov who organized the great counter-attack of winter 1812... after having burned Moscow, which had been abandoned to the enemy. Well, nothing for nothing!
As for Rumyantsev... Pyotr Rumyantsev, please, not Nikolai*! He too was the scourge of the Turks, but under the reign of Catherine the Great. Incidentally, it is also him who commanded in title (but delegating the effective power to general Suvorov) the imperial armies allied with the Prussians against the Polish-Lithuanians, during the uprising in Kościuszko in 1794... After the suppression of this revolt, Poland had disappeared for the 124 years - but of course, circumstances have changed since then!
To return to the present and the contingencies that influence the decision to launch Kutusov then Rumyantsev... Stalin feigns doubt, of course - he has already made his decision. But by pretending to hesitate, he believes to rise above the contingencies, in a role of referee that will allow him to attribute to himself the successes to come as much as to blame others for possible setbacks. All of this, of course, while expressing once again his views on the way things are going on the road to Minsk.
Basically, the Vojd considers that it is not taking much of a risk. In any case, not greater than the risk of leaving Ukraine in the hands of the fascists for another winter. According to some information, negotiations would be in progress between the Reich and various Ukrainian deviant groupings (mainly the Ukrainian People's Revolutionary Army, led by Bulba-Borovets)... Fortunately, nothing important seems to have come out last year by the Fascists with the much more powerful Ukrainian Nationalists Organization, except for a mediocre propaganda unit: between obvious contempt of some and duplicity of others, all this could not go very far, anyway. Besides, Stepan Bandera (from UNO-B) was arrested a long time ago, and Andriy Melnyk (of UNO-M, his long-time rival) now seems much less willing to collaborate with the Nazis.
Nevertheless, it is obvious that we are not in Belarus, where thousands of heroic partisans are bravely fighting for the Revolution on the enemy's rear. It is therefore urgent to go to the Ukrainian people - or at least to its fraction which fights for the Revolution - to prevent them from being deceived by the independentists and to protect them from death, deportation and... yes, from starvation! Starving Ukraine would be unacceptable, really! At this thought, Stalin cannot repress a grimacing smile that is returned to him by the window that faces him. He takes the time to look serious again before turning around and concluding: "Yes, it's going to rain. And it's going to rain hard. Gentlemen, it's time. More than time!"
* This diplomat, close to Tsar Alexander I, was in favor of an alliance with Napoleon I, who worked so hard for a Paris-Moscow axis that he had a stroke when he heard the news of the 1812 invasion...