2018 Presidential Election

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Wednesday, December 16th, 2020

Casper confirmed as FBI director

The Senate has easily confirmed Michael Casper to be the next director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), taking over from outgoing director Marcus Blakemore.

Casper was confirmed by an 89-1 vote, after the Senate Judiciary Committee voted unanimously in favor of his nomination.

President Sam Seaborn chose Casper, a former FBI agent and longtime deputy director, to take over the nation's top law enforcement agency as the expiration of Blakemore's non-renewable ten-year term in February 2021 neared. Casper headed the FBI task force that located and rescued Zoey Bartlet when she was abducted in May 2003, and was given the Presidential Medal of Freedom in 2011 by Glen Allen Walken, Seaborn's predecessor. In 2005, he was promoted to head of field operations, and in 2011 was named deputy director of the FBI under Blakemore.

The president nominated Casper in October with a view that Casper could be quickly confirmed by the new Congress in January, according to sources familiar with the president's thinking. However, Casper's distinguished service record led to his nomination moving through the Judiciary Committee much faster than anticipated, allowing the vote to take place during the current lame duck session.

Casper, who joined the FBI in 1987, pledged to uphold the bureau's mission of providing "effective, impartial enforcement of the laws of this country" if confirmed.

While it was unsaid, Casper's statements were a clear reference to criticisms of Blakemore by Democrats as well as some Republicans. Blakemore, who ran for the Republican presidential nomination in 2010 before dropping out due to an assassination attempt, has drawn concern for what critics say were politically-motivated decisions, including seizing computers in from offices of Senator Andrew Thorn (D-NY) during an investigation of the Emerald Capital Management, a subsidiary of his family's Thorn Group, and the arrest of former congresswoman Andi Wyatt (D-MD) over possible new information in the 2006 Patriot space shuttle leak scandal. Thorn himself was never considered a suspect, and after Wyatt's arrest drew bipartisan criticism, she was released and the charges against her dropped. Additionally, Blakemore publicly retracted his 2012 endorsement of Republican nominee Kurt Haden in the US Senate race for his home state of Michigan after criticism and was fined by the Office of Special Counsel for violating the Hatch Act, a 1939 law prohibiting federal civil service employees (except for the president and vice president) from engaging in some forms of political activity.

According to the White House, Director Blakemore offered his resignation upon learning of Casper's confirmation, which the president accepted. Casper will be sworn in as the nation's seventh FBI director tomorrow afternoon.
 
Some key state comparisons between "our 2018" Presidential Election & "the real world 2020" Presidential Election

NoState2018 PV Margin2018 % Margin2020 PV Margin2020 % MarginDiff PV MarginDiff % Margin
1Wisconsin22, 1650.66%20,6820.63%1,4830.03%
2Pennsylvania60,4290.92%82,1551.18%21,7260.26%
3Nevada32,2632.47%33,5962.39%1,3330.08%
4Michigan114, 5792.10%154,1882.78%39,6090.68%
5New Hampshire66,7396.73%59,2677.35%7,4720.62%
6Ohio467,6957.53%475,6698.02%7,9740.49%
7Iowa148,1288.95%138,6118.20%9,5170.75%
8Florida131,7801.32%371,6863.35%239,9062.03%
The States of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Michigan & New Hampshire all won by the Democratic candidate in both elections.
The States of Ohio, Iowa & Florida all won by the Republican candidate in both elections.
*The 2020 results are taken from David Leip's site*
 
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Some infoboxes:

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Cast (all previously established)
Seth Adkins as Cody Zeller
Jeffrey Tambor as William Tunney
Viola Davis as Olivia Emmett Franklin
Clark Gregg as Mike Casper

Mark did Zucker's biography here. While it's unmentioned, Zucker is the first (and so far only) member of TTL's Congress born in the 1990s and has been Baby of the House since he was elected.
Tunney's biography was done way back in the old thread. Tunney Media Group is the group that owns NBS and the Tunneys are essentially the Hearst family (Tambor's birthplace is an estate that the Hearsts built in rural California) if they continued to be as dominant as they used to be back in the early 20th century.

I gave Tunney multiple marriages after looking at similar media moguls' personal lives (Murdoch, Sumner Redstone, Ted Turner, etc.). His four children, plus the names of the two listed ones, should make it clear what other piece of Tambor's work I'm referencing.
Franklin is of course, TTL's newest Supreme Court justice and the first African-American woman on the court. Most of her biography was mentioned in parts of her confirmation storyline. Seaborn has nominated her successor for her seat on the district court, but the nomination is still in committee and will most likely have to be resubmitted in the new Congress.

The position of Chief Judge of the US District Court of South Carolina rotates among the appointed judges. Basically, the most senior judge (the one appointed first) who is under 65 and who has been on the court for at least one year serves as chief for seven years OR until they turn 70, when it goes to the next person who fills all the criteria.
Casper's predecessor as Deputy Director of the FBI is new. I established him as a graduate of American University and his approximate age (he graduated college in 1987). As mentioned, he was awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom in 2011 for his role in the Zoey Bartlet kidnapping crisis.

There are a bunch of Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. references in Coulson's Casper's box: his birthplace, middle name, the name of his acting deputy director (the position is Senate-appointed, so Sam will have to nominate someone to permanently fill the position), and his wife's name.
 
State Comparisons between "our 2018" Presidential Election & "the real world 2020" Presidential Election
State2018 PV Margin2018 % Margin2020 PV Margin2020 % MarginDiff PV MarginDiff % Margin
Alabama851,43233.38%591,54625.46%259,8867.92%
Alaska148,03127.64%36,17310.06%111,85810.06%
Arizona154,561 (R)5.93%10,457 (D)0.31%144,1045.62%
Arkansas469,04733.69%336,71527.62%132,3326.07%
California5,768,23339.01%5,103,82129.15%664,4129.86%
Colorado136,6664.87%439,74513.50%303,0798.63%
Connecticut494,77925.23%365,38920.03%129,3905.2%
Delaware125,40119.93%95,66518.97%29,7360.96%
DC417,02585.42%298,73786.75%118,2881.33%
Florida131,7801.32%371,6863.35%239,9062.03%
Georgia839,516 (R)19.52%11,779 (D)0.24%827,73719.28%
Hawaii309,02747.02%169,26629.46%139,76117.56%
Idaho379,31439.72%267,09830.76%112,2168.96%
Illinois1,080,46918.00%1,025,02416.97%554,4451.03%
Indiana640,20019.26%487,10316.06%153,0973.2%
Iowa148,1288.95%138,6118.20%9,5170.25%
Kansas695,85740.82%201,08314.65%494,77426.17%
Kentucky857,31038.06%554,17225.94%303,13812.12%
Louisiana762,23232.80%399,74218.61%362,49014.19%
Maine34,4823.45%74,3359.07%39,8535.62%
Maryland853,80226.39%1,008,60933.21%154,8076.82%
Massachusetts980,90426.94%1,215,00033.46%234,0966.52%
Michigan114,5792.10%154,1882.78%39,6090.68%
Minnesota8100.02%233,0127.11%232,2027.09%
Mississippi582,53435.69%217,32216.54%365,21219.15%
Missouri1,799,85850.44%465,72215.39%1,334,13635.05%
Montana145,78220.02%98,81616.37%46,9663.65%
Nebraska344,21931.11%182,26319.06%161,95612.05%
Nevada32,2632.47%33,5962.39%1,3330.08%
New Hampshire66,7396.73%59,2677.35%7,4720.62%
New Jersey716,06216.29%725,06115.89%8,9990.40%
New Mexico425 (R)0.04%99,720 (D)10.79%99,29510.75%
New York2,143,93426.08%1,992,78323.10%151,1512.98%
North Carolina289,3095.30%74,4811.35%214,8283.95%
North Dakota197,40133.78%120,69335.36%76,7081.58%
Ohio467,0957.53%475,6698.02%8,5740.49%
Oklahoma663,26736.34%516,39033.09%146,8773.25%
Oregon4820.02%381,93516.09%381,45316.07%
Pennsylvania60,4290.92%82,1551.18%21,7260.26%
Rhode Island218,42628.97%107,56420.77%110,8628.2%
South Carolina300,22813.04%293,56211.68%6,6661.36%
South Dakota201,41332.37%110,57226.16%90,8416.21%
Tennessee800,00326.48%708,70423.21%91,2993.27%
Texas1,433,96115.84%631,2215.58%802,74010.26%
Utah666,91855.15%304,55820.25%362,36034.90%
Vermont159,31333.79%130,11635.41%130,1161.62%
Virginia234,4685.38%451,13810.11%216,6704.73%
Washington554,44416.06%784,96119.20%230,5173.14%
West Virginia323,39132.49%309,39838.94%13,9936.45%
Wisconsin22,1650.66%20,6820.63%1,4830.03%
Wyoming232,74446.61%120,06843.38%112,6763.23%
 
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24 out of 50 states plus DC where predicted between 0% and 5% which is pretty good going. If you count the states within the accepted polling average error (3%) it was 16 states.
I am really pleased with the accuracy of the state results and the electoral college result between the two elections.
 
My prospective NBS streaming service name

Bunny,
Since NBS is owned by the Tunney conglomerate it may be part of a bigger streaming service. Looking back, it's kinda weird that NBS is a broadcast network when the show's version of it had very strong cable news vibes. They have like 10 different news shows that are on all the time, including primetime, no clue how a broadcast network would manage that.
 
Since NBS is owned by the Tunney conglomerate it may be part of a bigger streaming service. Looking back, it's kinda weird that NBS is a broadcast network when the show's version of it had very strong cable news vibes. They have like 10 different news shows that are on all the time, including primetime, no clue how a broadcast network would manage that.
Bunny was meant as a joke rivaling Peacock. In part a nice homage to @Marky Bunny .

But having it be NBS+ sounds lacking from a creative point in story. Peacock has political shows exclusive to it. So why would this reality not have the same thing?
 
In the spirit of this 2018 Christmas gift, here's a county map of the 1986 presidential election that reset the election cycle.

Results are obtained using swings based off TTL's state results applied to the OTL 1988 election results.

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While I didn't do this when I made the 2018 county map, here are the counties the two candidates did the best in. Since it was a two-person race (like all presidential elections from 1986 to 2014 except for 1998), the best Newman county was also the worst Furman county & vice versa.

Largest vote share for D. Wire Newman (D): Macon County, Alabama (99.05%)
Largest vote share for Joseph Furman (R): Madison County, Idaho (85.45%)
 
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I'll probably do the rest of the presidential elections, but these are pretty time-intensive (there are over 3,000 counties and county-equivalents), so it will take a while to bridge the gap from 1986 to 2018.
 
I can only imagine what the map will look like for 1994 😳

But shouldn't the swing apply to 1984 since that election was the same as OTL and was the most recent race?
 
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I can only imagine what the map will look like for 1994 😳

But shouldn't the swing apply to 1984 since that election was the same as OTL and was the most recent race?
I think you misunderstand. "Swing" in this instance means "amount I'm changing the OTL vote in a given state to match ATL results", not "the difference between results".
 
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