2018 Presidential Election

I can only imagine what the map will look like for 1994 😳

But shouldn't the swing apply to 1984 since that election was the same as OTL and was the most recent race?
 
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I can only imagine what the map will look like for 1994 😳

But shouldn't the swing apply to 1984 since that election was the same as OTL and was the most recent race?
I think you misunderstand. "Swing" in this instance means "amount I'm changing the OTL vote in a given state to match ATL results", not "the difference between results".
 
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Sunday December 20th 2020

Former Nebraska Governor John Moore "unlikely to run" for the Presidency


John Moore the former two-term Governor of Nebraska told NBS this morning that he was "unlikely to run" for the Presidency. Moore who turns 70 in March next year said he didn't "feel that he was ready for a long campaign".

Moore sat out the 2018 election, which surprised many, although he was vetted by Henry Shallick as a possible running-mate. Moore said "I feel that I would make a great candidate, but I am unlikely to run at the moment". Asked if was supporting anyone else for the nomination "no not at the moment, I may change my mind in a few months, but I will not be announcing any time soon".

Moore seems to be yet another possible top tier Republican candidate to pass on the 2022 race, following Vice-President Jack Hunter announcement last week, and the decision of James Ritchie to seek RNC Chair instead, means that the nomination looks wide-open, with only two declared candidates at the moment, outgoing Michigan Congressman Gus Edwards and former Oklahoma Senator Alan Duke.
 
Since OTL just had the first incumbent president to lose his bid for reelection since the 1990s, I figured why not map out TTL's 1990s election where the incumbent president lost his bid for reelection.

Here's the map showing the vote share of the winning candidate in each county in the 1990 election:


Here's the best counties for the candidates (and worst for their opponents):

Largest vote share for Owen Lassiter (R): Arthur County, Nebraska (91.53%)
Largest vote share for D. Wire Newman (D): Starr County, Texas (97.12%)
 


Wednesday, December 23rd, 2020

Robert E. Lee Statue Removed from U.S. Capitol

A statue of Confederate general Robert E. Lee that stood in the U.S. Capitol for 111 years has been removed, Virginia Governor Bobby Tyler announced.

The statue, which stood alongside another Virginian, president George Washington, was part of the state's contribution to the National Statuary Hall. Each state is allowed two statues in the collection. The statute of Washington will be joined by a statue of civil rights icon Barbara Johns instead of Lee.

"We should all be proud of this step forward for our great Commonwealth of Virginia," Tyler said in a statement. "The Confederacy is a symbol of our state's troubled and shameful history, and a reminder of our past failures to live up to the promises of the American dream. It is now time to begin telling a new story of Virginia, a story about perseverance and inclusion, and loyalty to the foundational ideas of our country."

Tyler, the state's first African-American governor, acquiesced to a bipartisan commission's unanimous recommendation to remove the statue. Lee became the leading Confederate general in the Civil War, after resigning his U.S. Army commission after his state seceded in 1861. According to historian John Ambrose of the University of Virginia, Lee "became synonymous with the Confederacy" and served as an icon of the south's Confederate heritage.

In contrast, Johns represents, in the words of state delegate Leon Farfield (D), "the proud tradition of Virginians fighting for justice". In 1951, the 16 year-old Johns led a strike in protest of the unequal, racially-segregated schools in her hometown of Farmville. The case was picked up by the NAACP and consolidated with four other cases in the landmark 1954 case of Brown v. Board of Education, which struck down racial segregation of schools and is sometimes marked as the beginning of the civil rights movement.

Tyler was joined by Virginia's senior senator Louise Thornton (D) and congresswoman Allison Baynes (D) to watch as the statue of Lee was removed by workers. Speaker of the House Daniel Maddox (D-IL) praised the removal, calling on Congress to continue removing "monuments to hate", including other monuments to Confederates, in the Capitol.
 
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Thursday December 24th 2020

Virginia Senator Rob Buchanan defends Robert E Lee in an open letter which could signal Presidential run


Virginia's only state-wide elected Republican, Senator and former Governor Rob Buchanan has today defended Robert E. Lee after his statue was removed from the US Capitol yesterday. Buchanan sent an open letter to NBS which was also posted on his personal website early this morning.

Yesterday the statue of one of Virginia's most famous son's was removed from the US Capitol. I believe strongly that this decision is a political one from Governor Tyler and Senator Thornton. They should reconsider it's removal, and I believe that it's removal will cause more division. Millions of Americans, not just southerners or those from Virginia hold Robert E. Lee in high esteem, both as a general and man of honor. While he served a detestable cause, (I am not defending the Confederacy or slavery) it should be remembered that in defeat Lee promoted reconciliation and opposed calls for guerrilla warfare against the union, without that call the nation could suffered years if not decades of misery. Unlike Confederate President Jefferson Davis who was imprisoned for two years, Lee was neither arrested nor charged with treason.
Jefferson Davis statue has not been removed from the US capitol and I believe strongly that it should be , but not Lee's. Lee is different. There are hundreds of Lee memorials, schools and highways in his honor. Should they all go?
Where does it stop? Should Washington, Jefferson, Madison and Monroe be repudiated because they were slaveholders?
Many episodes of history are distasteful when judged by today’s standards but that does not mean they should be airbrushed away. Let the advocates of change propose new monuments instead of erasing history that they dislike or disagree with.

Buchanan's letter is bound to cause controversy, but it could well be as well the start of a possible Presidential run, especially with what looks like being a very open race for the Republican nomination, after three possible top tier candidates , Vice-President Jack Hunter, Florida Governor James Ritchie and former Nebraska Governor John Moore have all announced in the past few weeks that they will not seeking the 2022 nomination.
 
Just a note that the Buchanan letter is based on a couple of different articles I read regards Robert E. Lee , Jefferson Davis, the Confederacy and statue removal.
 
Happy Christmas to everyone on behalf of the writing team.
I know that 2020 has been an awful year across the globe and I can only hope this little bit of escapism has brought just a little bit of joy for you all. It has certainly helped me personally.
Kind regards
Mark
 
For our Republican/center-right readers, your late Christmas present: the county map for the 1994 presidential election.


Just a reminder of how large of a landslide Lassiter won thanks to hitting the lottery when it came to presidential terms (just after taking office, the economy recovered from recession, he got to oversee the victory in the Gulf War that Newman begun, and happened to be president when the Soviet Union finally collapsed) and the Democratic campaign being a complete trainwreck: he won every state except Massachusetts (and DC, like Nixon in 1972), and got a crazy 62% of the popular vote, TTL's record for the highest percentage won by any candidate since the 1820 election, which was largely uncontested (IOTL the most since that election is still Lyndon Johnson's 61.1% of the vote in 1964).

I do have to point out some goofy state results in this one, even by the standards of the show and the thread's sterling work trying to contextualize the bizarre electoral geography the show had (Lassiter somehow wins over 80% of the vote in the swing state of Pennsylvania while getting nearly that same amount in the neighboring swing state of Ohio).

This one is also somewhat unique as so far as the first ATL election where one of the candidates' best performance was in the District of Columbia (IOTL it's given the Democrats the highest vote share of any county or county-equivalent in 1980, 1984, 1992, 2004, 2008, 2016 & 2020).

Largest vote share for Owen Lassiter (R): Ochiltree County, Texas (93.42%)
Largest vote share for Roland Pierce (D): Washington, District of Columbia (90.90%)

Presidential election county maps
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
2014
2018 (slightly different color key)
 
I do have to point out some goofy state results in this one, even by the standards of the show and the thread's sterling work trying to contextualize the bizarre electoral geography the show had (Lassiter somehow wins over 80% of the vote in the swing state of Pennsylvania while getting nearly that same amount in the neighboring swing state of Ohio).
Yeah, that's my fault, I did it in the early years of the story, if I was doing it now, the % margin would be slightly lower, I was also tied into the show as pointed out, especially with the 49 states in 30 years comment from Series 6.
 
Yeah, that's my fault, I did it in the early years of the story, if I was doing it now, the % margin would be slightly lower, I was also tied into the show as pointed out, especially with the 49 states in 30 years comment from Series 6.
Luckily, it's not a big deal, especially since Bartlet's "lonely landslide" just eight years later shows just how disconnected the presidential and downballot races can be in the show's universe (or at least what it was like at the time).
 
Luckily, it's not a big deal, especially since Bartlet's "lonely landslide" just eight years later shows just how disconnected the presidential and downballot races can be in the show's universe (or at least what it was like at the time).
I think I have got better with the state predictions, especially how good 2018 turned out to be compared to 2020 in the key battleground states. It is the one thing I am very proud of in the whole 12 years of the story.
 
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Atlantis Cable News

Edwards retorts Buchanan over Confederate Statues


Washington D.C.- Appearing this morning on ACN Sunday with Terry Smith, White House Deputy Communications Director John Edwards, well known for his outspoken distain for Confederacy, offered his own retort to Virginia Senator Rob Buchanan's (R-VA) controversial statement on the decision by the State of Virginia to remove the statue of Confederate General Robert E. Lee from the Capital Rotunda. The full segment is below.

Terry Smith (TS)- Joining us now is White House Deputy Communications Director John Edwards. John, thanks for being here this morning.
John Edwards (JE)- Glad to be here, Terry. Thanks for having me.
TS- John, this past week, Senator Buchanan of Virginia release a controversial statement about the decision to remove the statue of Robert E. Lee from the Capital. It has the support of many Democrats in both Virginia and Congress. Does the White House, specifically President Seaborn support this action?
JE- Absolutely. President Seaborn believes, as does I, that these statues have no place in public spaces, outside of museums.
TS- Is that where the Statue is headed?
JE- You'd have to ask Governor Tyler for a specific answer, but it is my understanding that the Statue will be donated to a museum.

TS- John, you're a Southerner, as is Senator Buchanan.
JE- You know how much i love being compared to Robert Buchanan
TS- You're also a retired US Army Paratrooper
JE- 1st of the 508, "Fury from the Sky"
TS- As a veteran, you don't seem to show sympathy with General Lee, nor the men under his Command
JE- I have no sympathy for anyone who commits treason against my country.
TS- So in your opinion, Robert E. Lee is a traitor?

JE- I, John Edwards, do solemnly swear that I will support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic; that I will bear true faith and allegiance to the same; and that I will obey the orders of the President of the United States and the orders of the officers appointed over me, according to regulations and the Uniform Code of Military Justice. So help me God."
TS- I'm sorry...
JE- That's the oath I took the day I enlisted. Robert E. Lee took a similar oath after his graduation from West Point in 1831. If you notice, there isn't an opt out clause for when "you feel a duty to your State".
TS- John, I just want to be clear about what you are...

JE- I'll be plain as day. Robert Edward Lee, and every other single "Confederate", was a traitor to their country. "State's Rights" is the same half-assed, lame-assed excuse that racists have been using for over 200 years. The Civil War was about one issue and one issue only: slavery. Everyone who found for the Confederate cause was fighting so that slavery could exist, plain & simple. I have no respect for them, and i could give a flying fuc....... Let me put it this way. Robert E. Lee was a great battlefield tactician. There is much to be learned from his experience. The same could be said of Field Marshall Erwin Rommel, Admiral Yamamoto, & General Giap. But there are no statues of those men in the United States, and if you notice, there isn't anyone arguing that there should be.
TS- John, are you accusing Senator Buchanan of treason?

JE- No. No, I am not. I am accusing him of blind ignorance, and of promulgating the cause of a traitor. And yes, in my view, Robert Edward Lee is traitor to the United States of America. And let me say this to the Senator. Sir, I have not the knowledge to know if you have ever served in uniform. Maybe you have, maybe you haven't. Either way, it doesn't matter, it won't change my opinion. I took an Oath, an Oath to the constitution of our great land. Somewhat ironically, its similar to the oath that you took as Senator. We've both taken oaths. Both of us have sworn to defend the Constitution...
TS- But what about the Statue of Jefferson Davis that Senator Buchanan also mentioned?
JE- With regard to the Statue of the Traitor-in-Chief Jefferson Davis, I happen to agree with the Senator. It should be removed with all possible speed. And, let me say, clearly, specifically, and for the record: the statue is still standing, but not for lack of effort. Since he first took office, Governor Alan Fisk, who is a close personal friend of not only me, but also my father..."
TS- Your father?
JE- Governor Fisk has been pushing for the removal of the Jefferson Davis statue since he took office nearly five years ago. Now, if only the State Legislature would only get off their asses...

TS- John, I have to ask, does the White House agree with this?
JE:
With removing Jeff Davis? Of course they are. Though, I now very much look forward to Senator Buchanan hotfootin it down to Mississippi to help Governor Fisk pass that bill.
TS- Ladies & Gentlemen, Mr. John Edwards
JE: Senator Buchanan, to paraphrase a good friend of mine, "Imma wait for y'all in the tallgrass"
 


Monday, December 28th, 2020

Seaborn names Angela Blake to be new DNC chair

As rumored for about a week, President Sam Seaborn today gave his nod to former White House Deputy Chief of Staff Angela Blake to take over the Democratic National Committee (DNC) next year.

"I'm excited that Angela has agreed to come on board, and fight with the same effectiveness and dedication that she has shown for her entire career," Seaborn said in an announcement endorsing Blake. "I look forward to her bright future as the party's chair in 2021 and beyond."

Blake, a political advisor and consultant, served in both the Bartlet and Santos White Houses, succeeding Seaborn as Deputy Chief of Staff to Matt Santos when Seaborn departed to begin planning his successful Senate campaign. She briefly served as acting White House Chief of Staff during the lame duck Santos administration before returning to work on Democratic political campaigns. Blake became the overwhelming favorite to succeed outgoing chair Stephen Collins after other potential candidates, such as outgoing House Majority Whip Noah Gellman and retiring congressman Guillermo Augusto, publicly denied interest in becoming the party's new chair.

With Seaborn's endorsement, her election at the February winter meeting of the DNC is all but assured. The 448-member committee, which coordinates the party's national platform, and oversees fundraising and policies for the party, will vote to fill the remaining two years of Collins' term. Collins has been nominated for the position of Secretary of Commerce, and has submitted his resignation as DNC chair effective December 31st. Until the DNC's winter meeting, vice chair Matt Darveaux, a state legislator from Florida, will act as the party's chair.
 
I do have to point out some goofy state results in this one, even by the standards of the show and the thread's sterling work trying to contextualize the bizarre electoral geography the show had
On the subject of "bizarre electoral geography", one question: why is D.W. Newman from Alabama? His voice/accent do not sound southern, and he is a solid liberal, so it seems odd that he was the governor of the same state as notorious segregationist George Wallace. I love DW but I have not figured out this one aspect of his biography.
 
On the subject of "bizarre electoral geography", one question: why is D.W. Newman from Alabama? His voice/accent do not sound southern, and he is a solid liberal, so it seems odd that he was the governor of the same state as notorious segregationist George Wallace. I love DW but I have not figured out this one aspect of his biography.
I wasn't involved with creating his backstory when the original thread was created, but it was clear that it was written to make him essentially "Jimmy Carter but played by James Cromwell", since the show heavily leaned into "Lassiter=Reagan" and Newman was established as a one-term president. Hence him being a former Democratic governor from the Deep South who was also a Navy man (his back story originally had him as a submariner like Carter...which is probably the worst possible job for a guy who is 6'7").

And the difference between Newman and Wallace is somewhat similar to RL: Carter's predecessor as Georgia governor, Lester Maddox, was a notorious segregationist whose political career began when he defied the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and literally chased black men out of his restaurant with a pickaxe handle rather than allow them to become patrons.
 
I wasn't involved with creating his backstory when the original thread was created, but it was clear that it was written to make him essentially "Jimmy Carter but played by James Cromwell", since the show heavily leaned into "Lassiter=Reagan" and Newman was established as a one-term president.
On the subject of "bizarre electoral geography", one question: why is D.W. Newman from Alabama? His voice/accent do not sound southern, and he is a solid liberal, so it seems odd that he was the governor of the same state as notorious segregationist George Wallace. I love DW but I have not figured out this one aspect of his biography.
That was about it, we said he was a liberal Democrat, also don't forget that when George Wallace was Governor between 1983 and 1987, he was a changed man; he made a record number of black appointments to state positions, including, for the first time, two black people as members in the same cabinet. (He became a born again Christian in the late 1970's).
When I started the story back in 2008 for it to work in this medium, we had to establish what the Presidential history and the backstory of the characters like Newman and Lassister for it to work. The show never made it easy to establish stuff, working out the 1998 Presidential election map, it took me months based on the information which had been given piecemeal across seven series.
 
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