7:00 PM, Chungyuan Standard Time, Nanking, Jiangsu, China
Chen Xiaoling: And now the polls have closed in China’s most populous provinces and cities. Votes are coming in from KMT strongholds in the South. Li Ao’s lead is dropping fast. Let’s hear from our reporter in Taiwan.
Cui Jiayi: I’m here in the small town of Yuchi, home to the famous Sun Moon Lake. Vice President Lin Yang-kang held a rally here today in his hometown.
[plays clip of rally]
Cui Jiayi: Both sides have a connection to Taiwan. Lien Chan’s dad, Lien Chun-tung, was born on the island. We’re expecting a very close election here.
Wang Yongrui: Let’s look at the South. Guangdong, birthplace of Sun Yat-sen, is Kuomintang country, sticking with the party through the disastrous 1992 elections. The results we’ve seen so far aren’t even close. The KMT completely dominated in the Cantonese-speaking media, and the outcome here was never really in doubt. Hainan voted the KMT back into power at the provincial level last month, and Lien unsurprisingly has the lead there. Hunan is James Soong’s home province, and stayed loyal to the KMT in 1992. Jiangxi, the home province of Wang Sheng, also voted KMT in 92. Both provinces can safely be called for the KMT. We can say the same about Zhejiang, home province of the Chiang family. Fujian is going to vote blue, but let’s keep an eye on it. The province has a strong China Democratic Socialist Party presence. Lien’s margin of victory here will help give us a good idea as to how many CDSP voters are actually voting for Li Ao.
Chen Xiaoling: Further North we’ve got a lot of CDSP strongholds, and Li is doing well there. Xingan voted for Chen Chongguang in the first round, and it looks like it is safe for Li. We’re also seeing Li winning CDSP areas of Hebei. He’s winning so far in Beiping, Shijiazhuang, and Baoding, with Tianjin being the only major city in the province that seems to be backing Lien. Memories of the 1989 protests are contributing to Li Ao’s good performance here.
Wang Yongrui: The results in the North will be interesting to see too. Liaoning will be one to watch. Lian Chan represents a district in the provincial capital of Shenyang, and that’s where he is today, at his campaign headquarters after rallying his supporters. The province is also where much of the Liberal Party’s early support was found. The Northeast is usually a weak region for the KMT, but Lien Chan might be able to change that. In nearby Liaobei, despite former President of the Legislative Yuan Liang Surong’s urging to vote KMT, Li Ao has a comfortable lead. Chahar, a stronghold for the New Democratic League, is voting overwhelmingly for Li Ao. Rehe is voting pretty heavily for Li too.
Chen Xiaoling: The central provinces are the ones I think will decide the election. And there’s no clear winner of this region yet, I think that means it’s going to be a long night.
Wang Yongrui: I agree. Jiangsu is the province I’m most interested in. I think that Lien is going to win Nanking, but Shanghai could go either way. James Soong was there today rallying KMT voters. Hubei will be interesting as well. There’s a lot of resentment against the KMT in that province because of the killing of Yuan Jia in 1989 and then Governor Peng Mengji’s crackdown on protests. Anhui is probably going to vote blue, but I think Li can make it close. Shandong will be interesting. The Kung family is still highly influential there, and they’ve donated a lot of money to the Lien campaign. Meanwhile in Henan, where a lot of their factories are located, Li Ao has the lead. He ended his campaign there in the industrial city of Hangzhou. Finally, we’ve got Shanxi, which was home to the famous warlord Yan Xishan. That province could go either way.
Chen Xiaoling: I think it’s safe to make some calls. We can confidently call Hejiang for Li. Also in Li’s column are Liaobei, Xingan, Chahar, Rehe, and I’m going to say Hebei too. Meanwhile, we can safely say that Lien has won Guangdong, Hainan, Hunan, Jiangxi, Fujian, and Zhejiang. But what matters is the overall vote, and Li Ao is still in the lead.