沒有國民黨就沒有中國, Without the Kuomintang there would be no China, A Republic of China Story

Interesting developments in Latin America, especially in Cuba. And a shocking twist in China; looking forward to seeing the fallout from this scandal.
Agree, these two threads is pretty interesting. Contents and discussion regarding modern Latin America is intriguing me (although I wonder what is Brazil is up to, but then again I am probably missed something.) Meanwhile, I wonder what other manoeuvres the other parties will do in regards to these scandals.

P/s: Another out of topic question perhaps, (but while I reread @Vinization 's timeline regarding Brazil), I happened to stumble about this person, Lawrence Pih, which happened to move to Brazil from China only in the early 1950s. Is he perhaps still move to Brazil and eventually became a owner of a wheat flour producer or stays in China (and probably became at least a supporter of CDSP or NDL based on his action in Brazil IOTL)?
 
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Agree, these two threads is pretty interesting. Contents and discussion regarding modern Latin America is intriguing me (although I wonder what is Brazil is up to, but then again I am probably missed something.) Meanwhile, I wonder what other manoeuvres the other parties will do in regards to these scandals.
I haven't talked much about Brazil. It has mostly been ruled by left-wing governments and had good relations with the USSR until the 1980s.
P/s: Another out of topic question perhaps, (but while I reread @Vinization 's timeline regarding Brazil), I happened to stumble about this person, Lawrence Pih, which happened to move to Brazil from China only in the early 1950s. Is he perhaps still move to Brazil and eventually became a owner of a wheat flour producer or stays in China (and probably became at least a supporter of CDSP or NDL based on his action in Brazil IOTL)?
I've never heard of Lawrence Pih until today, but he'd be a CDSP supporter (a businessman from Shanghai would be extremely unlikely to be an NDL supporter).
 
TTL's President of the Legislative Yuan under Li Ao, Bao Tong, has just recently died in OTL. He is the second person to die after being mentioned in this TL (the first being Queen Elizabeth II).
 
一百一十三, The USSR, 1990-1995
The 80s were not a good decade for the Soviet Union, especially after 1987. The 90s would be worse. Gennady Yanayev came to power after the assassination of Vladimir Kryuchkov in 1990. The assassin was unsurprisingly executed, and dozens of people were falsely accused of involvement in a supposed grand conspiracy (which was really the work of a lone gunman) were sentenced to hard labor. Yanayev’s first acts after coming to power were to order new offensives in Iran. 1990-1991 saw new offensives, as well as the highest Soviet and rebel casualties during the entire war. The war was an increasing drain on the Soviet economy. Soviet citizens would continue to grow weary of the war, but the government saw victory in Iran as the way to make up for the loss of East Germany, Poland, and Hungary.

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(Gennady Yanayev)

Anti-government movements sprung up inside the USSR during the 1987 coup. In the 1990s, these movements expanded. This was directly correlated with the continued war in Iran and the shrinking Soviet economy. These organizations were highly diverse, some promoted democracy, some promoted nationalism. The central government denounced them as counter-revolutionaries and fascists. Soviet citizens were told to be on the lookout for Western and Chinese spies, and over 100 Soviet citizens were executed as supposed spies between 1990 and 1994. Those executed were overwhelmingly non-Russian, and nearly half were Kazakh. The Kazakhstan SSR was experiencing a rebellion, though the situation was mostly under control. There was sporadic unrest in the rest of the SSRs.

The Soviet Union tried to bring Romania and Yugoslavia fully into the Eastern Bloc (these two nations were Communist but independent on foreign policy). The problem was that the Soviet Union had little to offer them by the early 90s. Trade was decreasing, and the Soviets were exporting and importing less. The USSR was losing relevance on the world stage. By 1995, many observers noted that the Soviet Union’s only remaining claim to superpower status was its massive nuclear arsenal. It could still project power into the Middle East and the Balkans, but not much else. The Soviet hardliners’ dreams of Communist revolutions engulfing the third world, which seemed possible, even probable, in 1980, were now nothing more than dreams. The Communist world would now be on the defensive, trying to hold on to what land it already had.

In 1991, the Ethiopian army defeated a Communist insurgency that had been ongoing since the 1970s. Somalia, Angola, and Mozambique were the only Communist regimes left in Africa, though Zimbabwe was also a Soviet ally. Some very optimistic Soviets hoped that the imminent end of Apartheid would lead to a Communist South Africa. In 1992, Slovenes and Croats revolted in Yugoslavia. That same year, Nicolae Ceausescu was overthrown and killed in a bloody revolution that lasted for a month. The Soviet Union sent troops to help put down a rebellion in Bulgaria, and ensure that the country remained in the Soviet sphere of influence. The final Communist terror attack in China occurred in August in Jiuquan, with only the gunman losing his life. Soviet and pro-government Iranian forces increasingly found themselves spread thin fighting against Islamist rebels. In 1993 rebels captured much of Central and Southern Iran, and cut Bandar Abbas (where the Soviet Naval base was located from Tehran).

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(Nicolae Ceausescu, 1918-1992)

In 1994, former Soviet leader Alexander Shelepin died. He was given a state funeral. Bulgaria erupted in revolution. The Soviet troops stationed in the country were not enough to stop the revolution from succeeding. Bulgarian leader Todor Zhivkov was evacuated along with several other high-profile Communists to the Soviet Union. Albania was the only Soviet ally left in Europe. More of Iran was falling to rebels. The Soviet Union tried to negotiate a ceasefire, and a partition of Iran, but this plan was opposed by the rebels as well as from within the USSR and the Iranian Democratic Republic. By 1994, there were some even with high positions in the Soviet government who questioned whether the War in Iran was worth it. Political maneuvering by those who opposed Yanayev was beginning, and Yanayev and his supporters moved to demote and sometimes arrest suspected troublemakers.

By late 1994, there were shortages of basic goods across the country. The Soviet Union would announce a withdrawal of all its forces in Iran within six months. The Soviet citizenry was increasingly willing to defy the government, and protests became more common. The only thing keeping the Soviet regime alive at this point was brutal repression, but the people of the Soviet Union were getting more and more desperate. The defeat of Communism in Bulgaria and the lack of a Soviet invasion in response was interpreted (correctly) as a sign of Moscow’s weakness. In the Spring of 1995, the troops returned home. These veterans wondered what the whole point of the War in Iran was, and they directed their anger at the government.

Confidence in the government was at an all-time low, as was faith in the Communist system. In May and June, riots over food shortages broke out across the Soviet Union. The government was losing control of the situation. In Perm, soldiers refused to fire upon the rioters. In July, demonstrators took to the streets of Moscow demanding the resignation of top government officials and the establishment of free elections. Unsurprisingly, the demands were rejected. However, Yanayev did not immediately order the killing of the protesters, out of fear that the soldiers would side with them. Special divisions were transported to Moscow. On August 1, they fired upon the protesters, killing many of them.

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(Tanks in Red Square)

Most of the soldiers in regular units sympathized with the protesters. While some would join the special divisions in shooting the protesters, the majority did not. By the 2nd, the city of Moscow was divided between two opposing forces. The pro-government side soon found itself outnumbered and losing ground. On the 3rd, anti-government forces stormed the Kremlin. Political prisoners (including former Soviet leader Yegor Ligachev) were freed from Moscow’s jails. Yanayev had fled to Novosibirsk, hoping to regroup the Communist hardline forces. However, with the fall of the Kremlin, support for the regime evaporated. The Soviet Union would be ruled by an interim government. This government would be led by Viktor Chernomyrdin, though power would be shared with a council comprised of revolutionary leaders and Soviet officials.

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(Viktor Chernomyrdin)

On the 5th, Gennady Yanayev was captured and handed over to the revolutionaries. He would be tried and sentenced to death, though the death sentence would be commuted. That same day, members of the Soviet government in exile in Stockholm were invited to return to the country and participate in the new government. Local elections would be held throughout the USSR in the upcoming months. National elections were scheduled for the next year. Lithuania voted to secede from the Soviet Union later that month. Estonia soon followed. In September, the government of Latvia, composed of hardliners, refused secession. The people of Latvia took to the streets and forced the approval of a referendum, which was a landslide victory for the pro-independence side. Uzbekistan and Georgia would also declare independence within the next few months. By the end of 1995, the Soviet Union still existed, though its dissolution was all but guaranteed.
 
And so the Soviet house of cards finally comes crashing down. Loving the detailed description of the domino effect of disasters hitting the communist world, and how it all started with Iran being their OTL Vietnam.
 
A question about North Korea:if North Korea didn't split the Hwanghae Province into two new provinces does that also mean the Ryanggang Province doesn't exist either?
 
一百一十四, The Presidential Election of 1996
In March 1996, voters across China would cast a ballot for President (along with Vice President). This was the first direct election for president in Chinese history. It was also the first where the entire country would have free and fair elections. Campaigning and politicking began long before the actual election. Incumbent Li Ao began campaigning in the summer in order to recapture his cratering support. Newspapers were starting to predict the election to be a contest between the KMT and the CDSP. His own Vice President was considering running his own campaign, or even rejoining the KMT. There were even some within the Liberal Party who were considering dumping Li. Li gave speeches throughout the country. In particular, he visited places like Beiping, Shanghai, and Wuhan, places that were important in the 1989 protests. He gave a patriotic speech in Nanking after the military parade on the fiftieth anniversary of V-J Day.

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(Lin Yang-kang)

Most parties had their leadership elections and presidential nominations in September. The China Youth Party ended up voting to continue supporting Li Ao. Lin Yang-kang had decided to be Li Ao’s running mate. Opposition to Li within the Liberal Party turned out to be marginal. The China Democratic Socialist Party had soured on Li Ao, and had left the governing coalition. 1990 Vice Presidential nominee Chen Chongguang became party leader and was nominated for president. He, like Li Ao, was associated with the 1989 protests (he was even arrested). His running mate would be member of the Legislative Yuan Song Defu from Fujian. The New Democratic League renominated their 1990 candidate Yang Rudai for president and nominated Labor organizer and former Tangshan Mayor Wang Zhaoguo for Vice President.

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(Chen Chongguang)

The Kuomintang convention commenced to much fanfare as the party sought to regain the presidency. Chiang Hsiao-wen, the oldest son of Chiang Ching-kuo, had died in 1992. His younger son, Chiang Hsiao-wu, was still alive and planned on running for president. Party leader Lien Chan, member of the Legislative Yuan and former Secretary of the Interior, ran as well. He ran on a return to normalcy. General Wang Wenxie ran. His support from the Kung family and Minkuo Electronics was notable. Political Scientist Wei Yong ran a campaign on foreign policy. It soon became obvious that the nomination would be a contest between Chiang Hsiao-wu and Lien Chan. Chiang Kai-shek and Chiang Ching-kuo were extremely popular in the party. However, Lien Chan had built up a considerable base of support in the last six years. He won the nomination on the second ballot. Chiang Hsiao-wu recommended National Assembly member James Soong as the Vice-Presidential nominee, and Lien Chan agreed.

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(Lien Chan)

There were other minor candidates who ran. Lee Teng-hui and Chen Li-an considered campaigns, but they ultimately withdrew from the race. Chen, independent governor of Zhejiang, would rejoin the KMT. Polls showed Lien Chan at 41%, Li Ao at 24%, Chen Chongguang at 18%, and Yang Rudai at 4%. Lien was obviously going to finish in first place, with Li or Chen finishing in second place. After that, there would be a runoff. The New Democratic League had lost a lot of support once authoritarianism had ended. Lien Chan, convinced that Li was his more formidable opponent, focused his attention on the president. Chen tried to unite the left and made appeals to NDL voters. Li would focus most of his rhetoric against Lien, but he would also seek to take voters away from Chen and the CDSP.

Li Ao was elated by the news from the Soviet Union. He took credit for the democratic revolution in Moscow, saying that it was a result of the Summer 1989 Protests. In October he flew to the Soviet Union to meet with leaders of the interim government. At the same time, Mongolia announced that it would begin to depart from the Stalinist model and introduced political and economic reforms. This was also hailed by Li as a foreign policy success. Li’s support was rising, though it was nowhere close to Lien Chan. The media, even if it was far less biased than in 1990, was on Lien’s side. Actor, singer, and director Liu Chia-chang appeared with Lien Chan at a rally in Li Ao’s hometown of Harbin. Li supporters heckled both men and some protesters had to be removed from the rally. While Lien Chan had his own rallies, Li Ao had bigger rallies. Chen Chongguang would also have a hard time attracting large crowds.

In November, elections for the National Assembly were held. Since this legislative body no longer elected the president, the election had very low turnout. The Kuomintang won a slight majority of seats, with a plurality of 46% of the popular vote. Lien Chan’s running mate James Soong became President of the National Assembly. This inspired Li Ao to campaign more aggressively. As the time drew closer to the presidential election, the candidates mainly focused their efforts in the Central and East-Central provinces. Shanghai, China’s largest city, saw the most campaigning of anywhere. The top provinces for campaign visits and spending were Jiangsu, Henan, Hebei, Hubei, and Anhui. and Sichuan. Li Ao also targeted Beiping, which was dominated by the CDSP. The NDL focused on the less populous provinces that received less attention from the main candidates.

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(James Soong)

Two debates were held in January and February. At the first debate Yang Rudai was not invited, and his supporters protested. He was allowed into the second, though he claimed he was given less time than the other three participants. These debates are not regarded to have made a huge difference in the final results. The candidates all did respectively, without any shining moments or major gaffes. Lien Chan had to face questions relating to his culpability (or lack thereof) in KMT authoritarianism. Attacks against KMT candidates from the authoritarianism angle were largely unsuccessful. KMT candidates would bring up corruption and wiretapping scandals in the Li Ao administration in response. Each of the four candidates’ campaigns declared them to the winners of the debates.

The first round came in March. Lien unsurprisingly came in first place with almost 44%. His campaign was expecting a slightly better result, however. Li Ao came in second with almost over 28%. Chen Chongguang and Yang Rudai came in third and fourth place in 22% and 5% respectively. 310 Legislative Yuan seats were won by the KMT, 119 were won by the CDSP, 98 were won by the liberal Party 91 were won by the CYP, 23 were won by the NDL, 5 were won by independents, and 4 were won by the Tibet Improvement Party. 146 seats would be decided by a runoff. The KMT flipped the governorships of Fujian, Hainan, Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan, Xikang, and Anhui, with many more to be decided by runoff. Li Ao would need to get the overwhelming majority of Chen and Yang supporters to support him.

Presidential Election of 1990, First Round
PresidentVice-PresidentVotes
Lien Chan (KMT-Liaoning)James Soong (KMT-Hunan)217,305,876 (43.9%)
Li Ao (I-Songjiang)Lin Yang-kang (CYP-Taiwan)142,065,573 (28.7%)
Chen Chongguang (CDSP-Hubei)Song Defu (CDSP-Fujian)109,395,441 (22.1%)
Yang Rudai (NDL-Sichuan)Wang Zhaoguo (NDL-Hebei)25,740,103 (5.2%)
Others [1]Others495,002 (0.1%)


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Fortunately for Li, he received the endorsement of both Chen Chongguang and Yang Rudai. These were not enthusiastic endorsements, only that the two men considered him more tolerable than Lien. They would not do much else to help Li and some CDSP officials openly supported Lien. Polling immediately after the first round showed Lien leading Li 51-43%, but polling tightened as the weeks went on. Both candidates began to use some left-wing rhetoric in order to win over disillusioned leftist voters considering staying home. This was widely seen as insincere, however. Leftists who felt it to be their duty to vote would have to choose which candidate they viewed as the lesser of two evils. The candidates and their supporters held rallies and gave speeches throughout the country. Li Ao ended his campaign in Zhengzhou, Henan, Lin Yang-kang ended his campaign in Yuchi, Taiwan, Lien Chan ended his campaign in Shenyang, Liaoning, and James Soong ended his campaign in Shanghai, Jiangsu. On April 21, 1996, the results came in...

1: These would include write-ins and regional candidates.
 
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And in honor of the elections this month (the ones in Taiwan, not America) I will write the results in a series of election-night style posts. The time the results begin depend on if you are a:

Japanese Imperialist: 12:00 PM on Monday
Hardworking Chinese Patriot: 11:00 AM on Monday
Russian Communist (Moscow): 6:00 AM on Monday
British Imperialist: 3:00 AM on Monday
American Capitalist (East Coast): 10:00 PM on Sunday
 
Added a map of the first round results. The Split opposition meant that Lien Chan won all but 5 provinces even though he didn't get a majority in most of them.
 
Japanese Imperialist: 12:00 PM on Monday
Hardworking Chinese Patriot: 11:00 AM on Monday
Russian Communist (Moscow): 6:00 AM on Monday
British Imperialist: 3:00 AM on Monday
American Capitalist (East Coast): 10:00 PM on Sunday
I find this commentary a nice touch which adds flavor to the whole TL.
 
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