What country would be viewed as "Public Enemy No. 1" in the Western consciousness? Let me guess, Iraq?
沒有國民黨就沒有中國, Without the Kuomintang there would be no China, A Republic of China Story
- Thread starter CELTICEMPIRE
- Start date
The issue compared to OTL is that China ITTL is a prosperous and increasingly liberal and healthy democracy. There's frankly no ammo to use against China except for pure geopolitical pragmatism which as we have seen IRL, does nothing to convince modern day citizens and businesses.Al Gore and American establishment better wake up quickly then. If I was in this TL warning the American and Western leadership constantly since the 1990s about the rise of China, I would be labelled warmonger, conspiracy theorist or agent of military-industrial complexNevertheless, I think that upcoming decades would prove me right, as from the Western perspective China will become too powerful, but who knows
Popular sentiment against China OTL only really stirred up because of factors that simply don't exist. Taiwan is a non-issue. The treatment of Hong Kong and Xinjiang is a non-issue, as are pretty much all the other human rights violations. And as we all know, the economic rise won't make America actually do anything it's simply too profitable to trade unhindered and do business in China and offload all their manufacturing there.
With China never going Communist, the US never bothered to cultivate such strong security relationships with Japan (which is notably more centrist without the CIA running interference to help the conservatives win more often out of Communist paranoia) or South Korea, which is just Korea now. With NK gone, one of the main boogeymen the US has to focus on Asia is removed.
The Thucydides trap does not always have to result in war, hot or cold, and Britain allowed the US to surpass it without a war and preferred to just trade and make money instead. It's not impossible the US does the same if they simply can't muster up the required political willpower without China being so bellicose or tyrannically authoritarian.
A potential flashpoint I can see is that a democratic China is not likely to be any less nationalist than a communist one. The same idea that they were humiliated and lost traditional lands and influence still exists and the natural state of affairs as China sees it is with themselves at the center of the world. They might do it more subtly and cleverly but China is very much still going to have territorial claims on literally all of their neighbors. If they have any ounce of cleverness they will use economic and cultural soft power to strengthen their claims over these regions and effectively turn Asia into their economic backyard again. They almost managed to do this OTL but then proceeded to piss off everyone by unilaterally and bellicosely claiming against international law and then sending in their military into disputed territories.
With Taiwan the first island chain is already broken from day one. In fact that concept doesn't even exist in the US school of thought ITTL so the Chinese can very much intrude into the Pacific and other trade vital regions which the US sees as its own SOI. Could this result in a war? Not possible IMO. There's simply no possible flashpoint anyone cares about. No American is going to go to war because China claims the South China Sea. ASEAN doesn't even exist, instead it's a proto Chinese led EU called OEAC. With Japan and Korea already strongly under Chinese influence and China having no interest in actual American territories, what flashpoint is there for war? None.
Will there be a rivalry and trade war and etc? Well yes but it would be similar to Anglo-American relations in say the 1860s-1900s and American fears that Japan will surpass them OTL. There's unlikely to be a war but there are some tensions over pride and trade and etc.
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You are correct.
Chinese nationalist claims in the South China sea are the biggest geopolitical issue facing South East Asia.
Indeed. It will place tensions on relations with Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, and Indonesia. Luckily for China is that it has the OEAC to influence them economically and serve as a forum for discussions.
War in the Middle East
Iraq, along with Syria and Libya, were the countries in the Islamic world perceived to be the most hostile to Western interests. This was because Islamist governments, whether Sunni or Shia, were strongly anti-Communist and thus had at least something in common with the West. Iraq was the most prominent Soviet ally in the Middle East, was hostile to Israel and Saudi Arabia, and until the 1990s had the strongest military in the region. But the death of Abd al-Karim Qasim in 1992 caused disunity in the Iraqi government which led to infighting and purges. An Arab Nationalist government briefly came to power that sought to unite with Syria. In 1993 power shifted back to the left and there was a so called “anti-rightist” purge of those who sought to emphasize Arab Nationalism over socialism. This had the effect of hurting relations with Syria. Ethnic and religious tensions flared up during these years, and Kurdish militants, previously a minor nuisance, became a major problem for Baghdad.
In 1999 the Iraqi military would rescue over ten thousand Iranian leftists, including many high-ranking government officials, to protect them from possible imprisonment or execution by Islamists. Relations between Iraq and the New Iranian government were not off to a good start. At first, neither side wanted war. Iraq was dealing with internal conflict and Iranian leadership felt that their country needed time to recover from the nearly 20-year civil war. Many Iranians wanted to focus on supporting Shia militias in Afghanistan instead of fighting Iraq. But Shia radicals from Iran continued to cross the border into Iraq to help Shia rebel groups. This led to more border clashes between Iraq and Iran. In 2001 Iraqi government officials, including President Hamid Mousa, were pressured to resign as Iraq came under the control of a military government under Maher Abd al-Rashid. Rashid entered into negotiations with Iranian President Akbar Rafsanjani, who was opposed to the hawks in his country, but by 2002 negotiations failed to bear any fruit.
(Maher Abd al-rashid)
On April 5, 2002, Iraqi soldiers chased 5 Shia Islamists over the border into Iran and killed them there. The soldiers then found themselves under fire from the Iranian Army. They surrendered and were taken as PoWs. The following day border clashes caused dozens of casualties on both sides. Some hawkish Iranian officers took matters into their own hands and did their best to provoke the Iraqis into attacking. And they succeeded. By April 7 there was all-out war along parts of the Iran-Iraq border. Iraq then ordered an invasion of Iran, which the Iraqi military had been preparing for more than two years. On the 10th, Maher Abd al-Rashid gave a speech where he stated that Iraq was committed to peace and that Iran had rejected all of Iraq’s efforts to preserve peace between the two nations. The Iraqi National Assembly then unanimously voted to declare war on Iran.
Iraq was winning the majority of the battles in April. Iraq would occupy much of the Arab-majority province of Khuzestan. The Iraqi Air force dominated the skies, and Iraqi missiles bombarded Tehran. Iraq’s goal was to devastate and humiliate Iran through war and cause the collapse of the regime. Time was on Iran’s side however, as it had twice the population and had a considerable portion of the Iraqi population on its side. Images and videos of the devastation brought on by the Iraqi invasion were shown to the world, which helped increase sympathy for Iran. Outside of Khuzestan, Iraq had a difficult time fighting in the mountainous terrain, and the army advanced very slowly. The bombings and missile attacks were still devastating for the Iranian people, as Iran had not yet built up an air force to match that of Iraq.
(Iraqi soldiers)
Other countries took a variety of approaches to the conflict. Much of the Arab world, Saudi Arabia in particular, hated both sides. Israel was of the same opinion. The United States initially took a pro-Iran stance, offering humanitarian aid and selling weapons. China sent warships to keep the strait of Hormuz open while Lien Chan declared Chinese neutrality. Britain condemned the invasion, but provided no military support to Iran (British diplomats had been held hostage during the Iranian revolution). Iraq had the support of India, Russia, Indonesia, Syria, Libya, Zimbabwe, Angola, and Cuba. Iran had the support of the United States, Canada, Australia, Germany, Poland, Vietnam, and Pakistan. Other countries were still trying to figure out what their stance on the conflict should be.
In late 2002, the Iranian army launched a series of counterattacks that began to push back the Iraqi forces. By April 2003, as the war entered its second year, Iraqi forces had mostly been pushed out of Iran. In May, Iranian forces began their invasion of Iraq. Al Gore, Lien Chan, and Omani Sultan Qaboos bin Said encouraged Iraq and Iran to enter into peace negotiations. But with rebellions popping up and spreading through Iraq, Iran opted to continue the war. Iranian troops continued to push into Iraq, determined to take Baghdad. In July 2003, the United States halted aid to Iran. Al Gore began communications with King Fahd of Saudi Arabia to discuss what actions should be taken if Iran conquered Iraq. Saudi Arabia had a plan.
In 1999 the Iraqi military would rescue over ten thousand Iranian leftists, including many high-ranking government officials, to protect them from possible imprisonment or execution by Islamists. Relations between Iraq and the New Iranian government were not off to a good start. At first, neither side wanted war. Iraq was dealing with internal conflict and Iranian leadership felt that their country needed time to recover from the nearly 20-year civil war. Many Iranians wanted to focus on supporting Shia militias in Afghanistan instead of fighting Iraq. But Shia radicals from Iran continued to cross the border into Iraq to help Shia rebel groups. This led to more border clashes between Iraq and Iran. In 2001 Iraqi government officials, including President Hamid Mousa, were pressured to resign as Iraq came under the control of a military government under Maher Abd al-Rashid. Rashid entered into negotiations with Iranian President Akbar Rafsanjani, who was opposed to the hawks in his country, but by 2002 negotiations failed to bear any fruit.
(Maher Abd al-rashid)
On April 5, 2002, Iraqi soldiers chased 5 Shia Islamists over the border into Iran and killed them there. The soldiers then found themselves under fire from the Iranian Army. They surrendered and were taken as PoWs. The following day border clashes caused dozens of casualties on both sides. Some hawkish Iranian officers took matters into their own hands and did their best to provoke the Iraqis into attacking. And they succeeded. By April 7 there was all-out war along parts of the Iran-Iraq border. Iraq then ordered an invasion of Iran, which the Iraqi military had been preparing for more than two years. On the 10th, Maher Abd al-Rashid gave a speech where he stated that Iraq was committed to peace and that Iran had rejected all of Iraq’s efforts to preserve peace between the two nations. The Iraqi National Assembly then unanimously voted to declare war on Iran.
Iraq was winning the majority of the battles in April. Iraq would occupy much of the Arab-majority province of Khuzestan. The Iraqi Air force dominated the skies, and Iraqi missiles bombarded Tehran. Iraq’s goal was to devastate and humiliate Iran through war and cause the collapse of the regime. Time was on Iran’s side however, as it had twice the population and had a considerable portion of the Iraqi population on its side. Images and videos of the devastation brought on by the Iraqi invasion were shown to the world, which helped increase sympathy for Iran. Outside of Khuzestan, Iraq had a difficult time fighting in the mountainous terrain, and the army advanced very slowly. The bombings and missile attacks were still devastating for the Iranian people, as Iran had not yet built up an air force to match that of Iraq.
(Iraqi soldiers)
Other countries took a variety of approaches to the conflict. Much of the Arab world, Saudi Arabia in particular, hated both sides. Israel was of the same opinion. The United States initially took a pro-Iran stance, offering humanitarian aid and selling weapons. China sent warships to keep the strait of Hormuz open while Lien Chan declared Chinese neutrality. Britain condemned the invasion, but provided no military support to Iran (British diplomats had been held hostage during the Iranian revolution). Iraq had the support of India, Russia, Indonesia, Syria, Libya, Zimbabwe, Angola, and Cuba. Iran had the support of the United States, Canada, Australia, Germany, Poland, Vietnam, and Pakistan. Other countries were still trying to figure out what their stance on the conflict should be.
In late 2002, the Iranian army launched a series of counterattacks that began to push back the Iraqi forces. By April 2003, as the war entered its second year, Iraqi forces had mostly been pushed out of Iran. In May, Iranian forces began their invasion of Iraq. Al Gore, Lien Chan, and Omani Sultan Qaboos bin Said encouraged Iraq and Iran to enter into peace negotiations. But with rebellions popping up and spreading through Iraq, Iran opted to continue the war. Iranian troops continued to push into Iraq, determined to take Baghdad. In July 2003, the United States halted aid to Iran. Al Gore began communications with King Fahd of Saudi Arabia to discuss what actions should be taken if Iran conquered Iraq. Saudi Arabia had a plan.
Especially with how this is the House of Saud we are talking about.
Shouldn't the US, like in OTL, aid both sides by helping making them destroy one another better?
That would be a good strategy, though the US might be doing something a bit different.
What is the video game scene like in TTL's China, as film and all that has been discussed previously?
China produces some video games, with its game industry starting in the 1980s. I will discuss it more.
@CELTICEMPIRE 2 things:
1) which countries leads in development of the high tech?
2) any chance for a world map? If no would you be interested in one?
1) which countries leads in development of the high tech?
2) any chance for a world map? If no would you be interested in one?
The US, Japan, Germany, Switzerland, and Sweden. Some other important players include China, Britain, France, Finland, Singapore, South Korea, Italy, and Canada.
I think I can put one together, as there aren't very many changes to the map from OTL.
Iraq Part 1
June 2003 was a bad month for Iraq. At the beginning of the month over 30,000 Iraqi soldiers surrendered at the battle of Mandali. Later in the month, the last Iraqi forces were driven out of Iran. Iraq was on the retreat. In July Iranian soldiers were within 75 kilometers from Baghdad. Iran was not the only threat facing Iraq. Kurdish rebels (supplied by the US) took over large parts of Northern Iraq. In the South Shia rebel attacks on Iraqi soldiers increased. There were also some Sunni rebels, but far fewer. Convinced that the collapse of Iraq was imminent, American weapons shipments to Iran were halted. Though the US had supplied Iranian rebels and later the Iranian government with arms, but America didn’t entirely trust Iran. Iran’s Islamist Shia ideology was a direct threat to American allies like Saudi Arabia.
Saudi Arabia had been preparing for Iraq falling to Iran for years. On July 11, Saudi Arabia advanced into Iraq, in what used to be Kuwait. Supported by the UAE, Jordan, and Egypt, they sought to take as much of Iraq as possible in order to create a buffer state with Iran. US President Al Gore was furious as even though he was aware of the Saudi buildup of troops, King Fahd had denied that an invasion of Iraq would occur in a meeting just a few days earlier. He was also upset to learn that China had been informed of the upcoming invasion. The Chinese navy immediately enforced a blockade of Iranian ports. Iranian and Saudi forces raced to take Kuwait City. Jordanian troops entered Iraq from the West.
Iraq’s strategy was to fortify their cities while praying that Iranian and Saudi forces would start fighting each other. The Siege of Baghdad began at the end of July. It was a well-defended city where the regime was relatively popular, and would prove tough to capture. To the South, Iraq abandoned Kuwait as Saudi troops aided by the Chinese Navy took the city. Iranian forces took Zubayr in order to cut off a major highway route for Saudi troops. Other roads into Iraq did exist but the Saudi offensive would be slowed. In August the Iraqi garrison in Al Amarah surrendered to Iran, and Iraqi forces surrendered en masse throughout August and September. Clashes between Iranian and Kurdish forces in Northern Iraq increased.
(Destroyed Iraqi tank)
In September Iran continued to take more of Southern and Central Iraq, while Saudi Arabia defeated Iraq at the Battle of Karbala. A joint Saudi and Jordanian offensive took Ramadi and Fallujah. On September 14, the three-way Battle of Abu Ghraib began as both Iran and the Saudi-Jordanian forces sought to take a city that was being defended by the Iraqi Army. On October 1 the battle ended in a Saudi-Jordanian victory. They could now attack Baghdad. However, Iran had many more troops in the area, and had already taken a third of the city. Saudi Arabia clashed with pro-Iran militias at Al Hamza. Clashed between Saudi-Arabia and pro-Iran militias continued, though both Saudi Arabia and Iran tried to avoid confrontation with each other when possible.
Realizing that Iran was likely to win the prize of Baghdad, Saudi Arabia and Jordan gathered a group of almost exclusively Sunni Iraqis to form a government. A constitutional monarchy was formed at Ramadi, with the 67-year-old Ra’ad being the new king (Ra’ad is a Hashemite, part of the same royal family that ruled Iraq until 1958 and currently rules Jordan). Sunni Iraqi militias were organized into the new Iraqi Army. The new Iraqi government proclaimed that it was a democracy and that elections would be held once stability was restored. The question of whether this new Iraq would include Kuwait (then under Saudi administration) or not would be solved at a later date. Much of the Arab world moved quickly to recognize the Kingdom of Iraq. Most of the rest of the world was waiting to make a decision, though China was also quick to recognize the new state.
The regime of Maher Abd al-Rashid was desperately fighting to keep Baghdad. But day by day they were losing ground to Iran. Jordan and Saudi Arabia were taking control of some of the suburbs as well. On November 8, al-Rashid was captured by Iranian forces. Pro-regime forces would continue fighting for the next few days. Pro-Iran Shia militias attacked Saudi and Jordanian forces in the Baghdad suburbs, pushing them out of the city entirely. In December, the Islamic Republic of Iraq was established in Baghdad, controlling more territory and considerably more people than the Kingdom of Iraq. Since the Islamic Republic of Iraq controlled Baghdad, Iran hoped that it would be seen as the legitimate government of Iraq. Meanwhile, Iraqi loyalists continued fighting, with loyalist forces being concentrated around Tikrit.
Saudi Arabia had been preparing for Iraq falling to Iran for years. On July 11, Saudi Arabia advanced into Iraq, in what used to be Kuwait. Supported by the UAE, Jordan, and Egypt, they sought to take as much of Iraq as possible in order to create a buffer state with Iran. US President Al Gore was furious as even though he was aware of the Saudi buildup of troops, King Fahd had denied that an invasion of Iraq would occur in a meeting just a few days earlier. He was also upset to learn that China had been informed of the upcoming invasion. The Chinese navy immediately enforced a blockade of Iranian ports. Iranian and Saudi forces raced to take Kuwait City. Jordanian troops entered Iraq from the West.
Iraq’s strategy was to fortify their cities while praying that Iranian and Saudi forces would start fighting each other. The Siege of Baghdad began at the end of July. It was a well-defended city where the regime was relatively popular, and would prove tough to capture. To the South, Iraq abandoned Kuwait as Saudi troops aided by the Chinese Navy took the city. Iranian forces took Zubayr in order to cut off a major highway route for Saudi troops. Other roads into Iraq did exist but the Saudi offensive would be slowed. In August the Iraqi garrison in Al Amarah surrendered to Iran, and Iraqi forces surrendered en masse throughout August and September. Clashes between Iranian and Kurdish forces in Northern Iraq increased.
(Destroyed Iraqi tank)
In September Iran continued to take more of Southern and Central Iraq, while Saudi Arabia defeated Iraq at the Battle of Karbala. A joint Saudi and Jordanian offensive took Ramadi and Fallujah. On September 14, the three-way Battle of Abu Ghraib began as both Iran and the Saudi-Jordanian forces sought to take a city that was being defended by the Iraqi Army. On October 1 the battle ended in a Saudi-Jordanian victory. They could now attack Baghdad. However, Iran had many more troops in the area, and had already taken a third of the city. Saudi Arabia clashed with pro-Iran militias at Al Hamza. Clashed between Saudi-Arabia and pro-Iran militias continued, though both Saudi Arabia and Iran tried to avoid confrontation with each other when possible.
Realizing that Iran was likely to win the prize of Baghdad, Saudi Arabia and Jordan gathered a group of almost exclusively Sunni Iraqis to form a government. A constitutional monarchy was formed at Ramadi, with the 67-year-old Ra’ad being the new king (Ra’ad is a Hashemite, part of the same royal family that ruled Iraq until 1958 and currently rules Jordan). Sunni Iraqi militias were organized into the new Iraqi Army. The new Iraqi government proclaimed that it was a democracy and that elections would be held once stability was restored. The question of whether this new Iraq would include Kuwait (then under Saudi administration) or not would be solved at a later date. Much of the Arab world moved quickly to recognize the Kingdom of Iraq. Most of the rest of the world was waiting to make a decision, though China was also quick to recognize the new state.
The regime of Maher Abd al-Rashid was desperately fighting to keep Baghdad. But day by day they were losing ground to Iran. Jordan and Saudi Arabia were taking control of some of the suburbs as well. On November 8, al-Rashid was captured by Iranian forces. Pro-regime forces would continue fighting for the next few days. Pro-Iran Shia militias attacked Saudi and Jordanian forces in the Baghdad suburbs, pushing them out of the city entirely. In December, the Islamic Republic of Iraq was established in Baghdad, controlling more territory and considerably more people than the Kingdom of Iraq. Since the Islamic Republic of Iraq controlled Baghdad, Iran hoped that it would be seen as the legitimate government of Iraq. Meanwhile, Iraqi loyalists continued fighting, with loyalist forces being concentrated around Tikrit.
Liking the complexity of a three-way (four-way?) war. Looking forward to seeing the fallout.
I forgot what TL I was reading for a moment, got worried about PRC involvement in the Middle East, remembered which TL and calmed down lol.