沒有國民黨就沒有中國, Without the Kuomintang there would be no China, A Republic of China Story

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panpiotr

panpiotr

CountDVB said:
Ehhh it depends. While I see a rivalry happening, I don't see China exceeding the US in being a superpower. China still has its disadvantages (like only 10% of its land being good enough to grow food if I remember correcly) and there's also the nations having to transition into the service economy and who could do it first. The legacy of the British Empire means alot of the stuff will still be Anglophonic to some level.

China may have a bit more of a difficult time adjusting to the new focus of service as the economy and I think the US will still have the advantge over in digital stuff. This China has not made the litany of mitakes like OTL China has. That said, they will still have their problems, issues and so on to deal with, especially with rising social movements and the like.
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Of course nothing is taken for granted, both US and China have a lot of challenges ahead of them, but in my opinion China has a potential of to overtake US in prospect of few decades.

Naturally, I am using OTL China as comparison. Both states share some problems, some are unique for OTL or TTL, but my point is TTL China has bigger economic, industrial and most importantly demographic advantage over OTL China. So we will see how the situation will develop.
 

CELTICEMPIRE

panpiotr said:
On the topic of how the future could look like, here is my take:

After the defeat of the USSR in the Cold War, people in the US will rejoice that the US is now undisputed superpower in the world, and the future belongs to democracy and globalization. Some may even proclaim that this the end of history, but they couldnt be more wrong.

USA will quickly realize that the Dragon has replaced the Bear on the international stage. China with its quick rise in industrial, economic, political and military power with immense potential growth will quickly become a number one geopolitical rival of USA.

In the last century, USA to achieve a global domination has defeated all contenders: Imperial Germany, Japanese Emipe, Nazi Germany and USSR in the end. But China will be the biggest challenge in American history as none of the previous contenders never had such economic and industrial potential as China. What is more, USA was never connected to their economies, as it is to China's, so they cannot simply put embargos on China, as it will hurt the American economy and the whole world as well.

In the long term, USA wont be able to maintain its economic domination over China for long. China will by the largest economy in the world by year 2020. Military domination could be maintained by a couple decades probably, but by 2040 China will be the new superpower with most powerful armed forces, and if they manage well, with economy comparable to US and EU combined.

Elites in both countries are well aware of this and will do anything to increase/preserve their position in the world. It will result in rising geopolitical tensions, new arms race, but also in a race to gain advantage in high-tech, space tech and exploration, development of artificial intelligence and so on.

The first chapter of the race for global domination between USA and China will be set in Russia, as both countries will try to draw Russia into their sphere of influence. USA will try to integrate Russia to US and EU ecomonies, just like China, as the Dragon needs cheap oil, coal, gas and other resources to fuel its evergrowing industry. Soon in Moscow representatives of USA and China will arive with suitcases full of money and gold to invest and bribe their way in Russia and to sway the Bear to its side. The side who manages to do it, will score a big geopolitical win.
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Interesting ideas. I haven't figured out what I'm going to do yet.
 
jerseyrules

jerseyrules

Amazing TL, I just finished reading through it from beginning to end. I particularly enjoyed the elaboration on the cultural and economic side of things, which are often lacking from TLs of this nature. One thing I'm curious about is what the demographic situation looks like for China in this alternate world. Given the lack of a one-child policy, or even South Korea-style subsidized sterilization and mass PR campaigns against high fertility, would this alternate China have more of a 2-child norm? Did you have a ballpark estimate for their population by the year 2000?
 

CELTICEMPIRE

jerseyrules said:
Amazing TL, I just finished reading through it from beginning to end. I particularly enjoyed the elaboration on the cultural and economic side of things, which are often lacking from TLs of this nature. One thing I'm curious about is what the demographic situation looks like for China in this alternate world. Given the lack of a one-child policy, or even South Korea-style subsidized sterilization and mass PR campaigns against high fertility, would this alternate China have more of a 2-child norm? Did you have a ballpark estimate for their population by the year 2000?
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Thanks.

As of 2000 China has around 1.3 billion people.
 
WotanArgead

WotanArgead

Tertius711 said:
If China is successful it might have been able to usurp Japan and Korea’s cultural influence both. Cpop, Cdramas, manhuas, and donghuas dominating the world.
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It is worth saying that initially Chinese animation developed along a different path - closer to traditional painting. However, in the 70s and 80s, the industry stagnated and was supplanted by the Japanese.
 

focus9912

WotanArgead said:
It is worth saying that initially Chinese animation developed along a different path - closer to traditional painting. However, in the 70s and 80s, the industry stagnated and was supplanted by the Japanese.
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Wait, is this IOTL?

For me personally, I think China would be a big market for all East Asian culture, whether Japanese, Korean or Chinese and you would see much more Chinese classic literature , Japanese anime and Korean drama being translate into each other language. This type of dynamics of influence would probably supplant cultural influence from specifically the USA (especially since these countries would be just short flight away, more on that later). Perhaps these would later supplant the American cultural dominance in international arena.

And speaking of flights, I wonder with China being opened up, how would that affect the airline industry pre-1990s, since East Asia would be more accessible especially from Europe and Africa, now there they could just flight through China instead of having a detour around China above the west of the Pacific Ocean. This in turn would make it flights between these region a bit shorter, which eventually also contributing in supplanting American dominance on the world (Maybe perhaps also open up markets that make European aircraft industry(or any other industry for that matter) much better performing.)

TLDR:
1.China opens up, interaction between East Asia increases.
2.China airspace opens up, non-American intercontinental flights shorter.
Proportionally lower interaction between non-American states, much lower American influence.
 
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Whiteshore

Whiteshore

CELTICEMPIRE said:
The first Chinese Grand Prix takes place in Shanghai in 1986, and again in 2003.
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Was the Chinese Grand Prix of 1986 by any chance a title-deciding affair much like the OG Japanese GP in our TL? After all, it would compliment the Australian GP as it was held at Adelaide at the end of the season at this time IOTL.
 

CELTICEMPIRE

Sorry for the delay, but I plan on getting back to this TL soon (I also have an update for Man of the Hour planned).
蕭祖廷MLK JFK LBJ Beatles said:
Would Chinese pop culture sweeps the world in this TL?
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Eventually, though not so much yet as of the late 90s (more than OTL, however).
Tertius711 said:
If China is successful it might have been able to usurp Japan and Korea’s cultural influence both. Cpop, Cdramas, manhuas, and donghuas dominating the world.
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It will, though as of 1998 Japan still has a cultural edge over China.
focus9912 said:
Wait, is this IOTL?

For me personally, I think China would be a big market for all East Asian culture, whether Japanese, Korean or Chinese and you would see much more Chinese classic literature , Japanese anime and Korean drama being translate into each other language. This type of dynamics of influence would probably supplant cultural influence from specifically the USA (especially since these countries would be just short flight away, more on that later). Perhaps these would later supplant the American cultural dominance in international arena.

And speaking of flights, I wonder with China being opened up, how would that affect the airline industry pre-1990s, since East Asia would be more accessible especially from Europe and Africa, now there they could just flight through China instead of having a detour around China above the west of the Pacific Ocean. This in turn would make it flights between these region a bit shorter, which eventually also contributing in supplanting American dominance on the world (Maybe perhaps also open up markets that make European aircraft industry(or any other industry for that matter) much better performing.)
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There's certainly a lot more tourism to China (and Asia in general) . During TTL's 80s and 90s tourism to China skyrocketed. China has significant cultural influence across Asia by the late 90s, though in America it's cultural reach is mostly confined to the occasional Chinese movie that performs well at the box office.

The popularization of the internet will be a huge boon for China's soft power, as Chinese people will have access to the same internet.

Whiteshore said:
Was the Chinese Grand Prix of 1986 by any chance a title-deciding affair much like the OG Japanese GP in our TL? After all, it would compliment the Australian GP as it was held at Adelaide at the end of the season at this time IOTL.
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Yes, it was.
 
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