Things were, in general, going well for China in the final years of the 20th century. Things were going even better for China's President Lien Chan. The late 90s and early 2000s saw the KMT at the height of it's popularity since the end of one party rule. While Lien Chan himself was not an extremely popular or charismatic leader, he presided over good times, so people liked him. Vice President James Soong was trying to build up his own base of support for a future run. He was hoping that Lien Chan would decline to run for a second term. But 2002 still was years away. In 1998, Premier Chiang Hsiao-wu died of congestive heart failure at the age of 53. Several of Chiang Ching-kuo's other children died early deaths too. Lee Yuan-tsu, minister of education under Chiang Ching-kuo and a pro-democracy reformist, was chosen as Chiang's replacement.
Not everyone was happy, however. Lien's predecessor Li Ao made a point of criticizing him at nearly every turn. But Li was criticizing everyone. He spent a lot of time attacking two men from Taiwan who had left the KMT. The first was Lee Teng-hui who helped found the Federalist movement in the early 90s and received some write-in votes in the 1996 Presidential election. Li accused him of being a crypto-separatist and a Hanjian [1] who sought to undermine the Republic of China. The second was his old Vice President Lin Yang-kang. Lin and the rest of the China Youth Party had decided to ally with the KMT once again, infuriating Li Ao. An Amendment passed during Li Ao's presidency had changed the frequency of legislative elections from 4 years to three, meaning that elections would be held in 1999 instead of 2000. Because of infighting among the KMT's opponents, the party coasted to victory and increased it's majority.
In 1999 Lien Chan achieved a major accomplishment when the government of Sri Lanka agreed to allow China two construct a naval base there. This was seen throughout the world as an attempt by China to control shipping in the Indian Ocean. This was obviously met with concern by India, but also by the United States. There were fears that China might begin to try to replace the US as global hedgemon. A flurry of articles and books were published that predicted the inevitable class between China and America, with some saying it would be a new cold war while others said it would be WWIII. Most of the American public was more optimistic though. America was increasingly an important source of tourism to China. Western tourists who visited China were treated well and were well-liked by the locals. Of course there were some exceptions, and in 1999 two English tourists were deported for aiding the Tibetan Separatist movement.
As the year 2000 came, the world's computers continued to function. In China many computers were operating on the Republic of China Calendar and the year just went from 88 to 89. China's military, economic, and cultural might was increasing with no signs of slowing down anytime soon. It looked as if a Chinese century was inevitable. Meanwhile, a new generation of Chinese was beginning to assert its influence. This generational cohort, known as Gen X in the West, grew up with the World War II and the Civil War being things their parents talked about and their grandparents fought in. They had very few memories of Chiang Kai-shek. They were generally more liberal-minded in both politics and their approach to society. Confucianism, gender roles, traditional sexual mores, and other aspects of Chinese life were seen as outdated, fueling generational divides that would manifest themselves more clearly in the 2000s. As the ball dropped in Shanghai's Nanhui District, most people were looking forward to a bright future.
1: Traitor to China
Great chapter as always! Good to see you back! But here is my comment on current and probable geopolitical situation in TTL's world:
A few months ago, I've shared my prediction on the potential future Sino-American relations and im which direction they may go. Of course, I may be wrong in my predictions as I am only trying to predict the future basing on the current situation and trends on the international stage. But my recent prediction is more or less accurate, as China is building its foreign base in Sri Lanka.
Naturally, China with its growing economic and military/naval potential wants to have an influence in the Indo-Pacific region, as the worldwide balance of power is shifting quickly from the West/Euro-Atlantic to the East/Indo-Pacific region. Expanding military/naval presence for China in the region is the a natural course of action, as in my opinion USA sooner rather than later will try to use its naval advantage when they still have it.
On the other side, natural geopolitical course of action for the US would building a coalition of states in the Indo-Pacific region with the aim of containing of China/rapidly expanding Chinese Navy with the help of neighbouring countries such as Japan,Philipines, Indonesia, Australia and India. USA from their position, if they want to have a chance to retain their number 1 position in the world, must contain/limit Chinese power projection capabilities across the Indo-Pacific and Euroasia as well.
So this comes to another point in geopolitical game: Russia. Both for USA and China having Russia on their side would be crucial in the future in my opinion. For the US, having Russia on their side would allow them to block China practically from all sides, blocking and limiting Chinese power projection capabilities. For China having Russia on their side would mean expanded reach of influence across whole of Euroasia, and also cheap source of gas/oil and other natural resources, which would only strengthen their economic/industial rise. Maybe Russia will try to use this opportunity to play both China and USA against each other to gain as much as possible.
As for my prediction for the next 10 - 15 years I may be right or wrong, but I believe that first decade of the XXI century will in some aspects resemble first decade of the XX century in some aspects, that is a competition between established naval super power: British Empire and USA, and quickly expanding continental contented: German Empire and China. I am convinced that there will be a Sino-American naval arms race, but this time the focus would be on who has got more aircraft carriers. Maybe there will be also a new space race, with space as new frontier of Sino-American competinon who knows.
For sure, in the coming decades China, along with its ecomonic expansion, will also expand its military/naval presence across the world, beginning with the Indo-Pacific region, then across the whole world, as I doubt that China with its growing power will simply accept American domination across the world. From the Chinese perspective there is no some sinister master plan to conquer and subjugate the world - but rather restoring the rightful place of China in the world, with China as its center. The domination of european colonial powers and later American/Soviet duopol is from the Chinese perspective only an anomaly in the history of the world, so the current Western-dominated world order is not the natural state of things.
However, from the American perspective the rise of China would in my opinion be the biggest challenge in their history. American victory in WW1, WW2 and the Cold War was done against powers weaker or much weaker than the US, which used its enormous ecomonic and industrial advantage against the Central Powers, the Axis powers and finally the USSR.
But in the case of China, USA wont have such advantage, as USA starts a potential conflict form much weaker position. China has a bigger population than USA, Europe and Russia combined for first. For second, the economic/industial potential of China in the future may be bigger that US/Europe combined with Russia. Right now USA dominates China in military area as well, but this situation wont also last forever.
So in my opinion, the country which would be eager to start a new cold war/trade war or even military conflict in the Pacific would be USA while they still can use their military/economic advantage over China. For China the best couse of action is simply to enjoy the benefits of globalisation and expand their power projection capabilities across the world peacefully, while waiting to overtake the US as most powerful country in the world.
The question is if the US will simply allow it, as the potential stake is a position of the most powerful country in the world in the coming century. In opinion they will not allow it, as they have seen what has happened with the British Empire, which in year 1900 was the most powerful country in the world, and in year 1999, they are nothing more than a regional power, dependent on American protection.
