Meta-Discussion: Big Brass Butterflies
Or: “The End [of Predictable Change] is Nigh”
As I’ve mentioned in earlier Meta-Discussions, any alternate history has three “zones” as I identify them: the “Immediate After-Effects” zone where the immediate consequences of the Point of Departure (POD) are felt, the “Plausible Butterflies” zone, where the predictable cascade of changes due to the POD occurs even as the general trends of our timeline can be seen and felt, with increasingly large changes as the timeline continues, and the “Fiction Zone” where the changes are so different that you’re essentially making everything up. These are not hard, fast lines, but zones that blend and fade into one another like a spectrum.
As I’ve also said in these discussions, Pop Culture is as volatile as the weather, and thus would most plausibly be in the Fiction Zone in less than a decade after the POD. I’ve also described how I’ve cheated a bit to keep things far more parallel to our timeline than is strictly plausible just to push back this Fiction Zone lest you get a stream of “Captain Chair Lamp” or whatever.
Shown: Emerging Butterflies in this Timeline
So, as we work our way through the second decade of this timeline, we increasingly approach the Fiction Event Horizon even as I work to artificially keep things echoing our timeline. As such, the days where you see
The Movie from Our Timeline and
The Movie We Know, but Slightly Different are increasingly past and increasingly we will see
The Movie That Never Was playing alongside or increasingly instead of these more familiar films. Some of these will parallel movies or TV series from our timeline, reflecting similar currents in the prevailing zeitgeist, but increasingly we will see something that was considered but abandoned or something entirely new that spun up from similar circumstances and we will increasingly
not see what happened in our timeline. Analogs will increase, e.g.
Film Somewhat Similar to a Famous One from Our Timeline will debut as a summer blockbuster, as will
Film Unlike Anything we Had in Our Timeline. There may also be a few surprise second-order butterflies, but only where the events of the TL justify them.
Strictly plausible? No. We’d be pure Fiction Zone by now if we were going by Orthodox Butterfly Theory.
What this means with regards to the timeline is that where the 1980s in this timeline were a mix of the familiar and the fictional, the 1990s will increasingly be a blend of the “reminiscent of something familiar” and the completely fictional. We will see where ideas that began remarkably like they did in our world instead go in completely new directions, so your favorite films of 1996 may increasingly be ones quite similar to them but still unique, or something completely different.
This will include nearly all of your beloved 1990s and 2000s classics,
including the Disney Animated Canon.
You have been warned.
Outside events are likewise starting to change. We already have new governments in numerous countries, including the US and former USSR, and resulting changes because of that. This will also influence pop culture, such that an idea that would never have come to anyone’s mind in the 1990s in our timeline will appear here, driven by outside events. A Gore Presidency will mean new priorities in the 1990s compared to Clinton, even though there will be overlap. And even in areas where political priorities align, they will be executed in different ways since the two have such different leadership styles.
We’ve already got plenty of tastes of this. For example, Gary Hart’s “Monkey Business” stayed hidden long enough to get him the Democratic nomination in 1988, which led to down-ballot changes in the Congress that surprised even me, which led to Clarence Thomas getting “Borked”, which led to an earlier reckoning on Sexual Harassment and Assault, which led to changes in company management (e.g. John Lasseter getting suspended and Harvey Weinstein getting removed), which have led to changes in active productions and new leadership opportunities in the companies. These changes will continue to proliferate, particularly in places like Disney’s “3D” (our timeline’s Pixar) where the more amicable, gender-equitable, and self-controlled Joe Ranft is at the creative helm rather than Lasseter, who is instead working his way back into the good graces of Disney management.
Things will also start to evolve in new ways. How will 1990s tentpole staples like the
Buffy the Vampire Slayer series fare in a world where you had 1989’s
Final Girl instead?
What will happen to the Disney Animated Canon in a world with different leadership with different priorities?
How will Marvel and DC movies continue to evolve?
How will CBS and Columbia continue to fare under Ted Turner?
How will theme parks continue to evolve in a world with Disneytowns and DisneySea, Warner Movie World parks in the US, and even Columbia Peach Grove Studios?
And what will happen to beloved television animated classics like
The Animaniacs in a world where Steven Spielberg is tied to Disney rather than Warner Brothers?
Well, I
can answer that last one…
next time!