Gore-Tsongas Declared Winners of 1992 Election
Democrats Make Marginal Gains in Senate, Lose Ground in House
From New York Times, November 4th, 1992
“It’s the economy, stupid!” said Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton, whose canvasing for Gore brought in critical urban and blue-collar voters in several swing states. It was hardly the first time that he’d said the now famous phrase, allegedly first crafted by campaign manager James Carville, which became a kind of mantra for the campaign. And while it may seem reductive to place it all on a single issue – after all, Bush was mired down not only by economic recession, but by a broken promise not to raise taxes, allegations of groping by several women[1], an allegedly tone-deaf response to Hurricane Bonnie’s devastation[2], and by a growing public perception of being effeminate, elitist, and out of touch – economic stability and jobs remained exceedingly high on the list of voter concerns, subsequently seeing Bush’s poll numbers plummet from a lofty peak of 89% after the Gulf War to around 40% in the leadup to the election. Altogether, this allowed Gore to ride a wave of “rust belt” angst to victory.
Bush also suffered from poor turnout from Evangelical Christian voters, many of whom saw the replacement of the gaffe-prone Vice President Dan Quayle on the ticket with Jack Kemp as a betrayal. While Kemp managed to help Bush in the suburbs, likely helping him to secure Ohio and Georgia and bringing both New Jersey and Maryland within striking distance, it appears to have hurt him in the rural South, West, and Midwest, allowing Gore to claim North Carolina, Michigan, Montana, and Kentucky. Whether Bush could have overcome his disadvantages and won had he stuck with Quayle is, of course, a matter of speculation[3].
Following a sweep of the Northeastern, Midwestern (save Indiana and Ohio), and Pacific Coast states, Senator Al Gore of Tennessee is projected to claim victory in the 1992 Presidential Election by a margin of between 341 and 366 electoral votes to President George Bush’s 172 to 197, with votes still coming in from some districts and Florida still too close to call[4]. Florida is so far within 0.005% and will face a mandatory recount, but even assuming that Bush claims it, it will not be enough to overcome Gore’s already certain 341 electoral votes. Gore also came startlingly close to Bush in Arizona, Ohio, Georgia, Louisiana, and Wyoming, which has given Republican strategists pause.
In addition to the economy, many credit the work of Carville for helping to guide Gore on his public persona. Gore, whose dry wit and technocratic approach to politics can come across as “dull” or “boring”, reportedly worked hard under Carville’s tutelage to project a down-home, fatherly image; a “friendly Tennessee working man” to contrast with Bush’s alleged “Yale Elitism” in Carville’s words. Gore worked to project this hard-working image as a man of the people despite, like Bush, being a highly educated Harvard man from a political dynasty. Rumors persist that Walt Disney’s public persona was used as a model, though this may reflect public awareness of the support of Disney Chairman Frank Wells, even as Disney CEO Ron Miller supported Bush. And while this image makeover didn’t always succeed as planned, many voters, particularly younger voters, saw Gore as a bit of an awkward but endearing dad “trying to be cool for his kids’ friends.”
“He reminded me of the dad from
Full House,” said one University of Tennessee student, “You’re kind of embarrassed for him, but you still kind of like him anyway.”
Others cite the endorsement of former independent populist candidate H. Ross Perot, who dropped out of the race in order to support Gore. Perot supporters tended to come roughly equally from both sides of the political aisle or represent demographics who don’t normally vote, according to NYT political analysists, making the endorsement possibly a factor in pushing wavering swing voters over to the Gore side. Other factors indicate that Perot, even in absentia, acted as a spoiler for Bush, having dampened enthusiasm on the populist right and among “Reagan Democrats” by severing Reagan’s coattails, adding to the damage done by Pat Buchanan, who refused to endorse Bush and continued to attack him over the dropping of Quayle.
Gore’s presumed victory sent blue chip stocks lower in anticipation of higher corporate taxes and possible limitations on fossil fuels and emissions while sending the tech-heavy NASDAQ slightly higher on promises of investment into “Green Technology” and computer technology as part of a long-term plan to transition to sustainable power and transportation infrastructure. Economists remain divided on whether investments in green tech can really bring back northern industrial jobs lost to sun belt states in the 1970s and ‘80s, but “Atari Democrat” Gore remains confident that “the Green Economy” is the future of American jobs along with high tech, computers, and cutting-edge research.
Continued on pg. A2.
Gore/Tsongas: 341 - 49,515,712 - 51.37%
Bush/Kemp - 197 - 44,372,538 - 46.04%
Bush/Quayle[5] - 1,498,821 - 1.56%
Ross Perot (write-ins) - 287,062 - .35%
Others - .68% - 660,085 [6]
Colors represent the depth of each party's control (red = republican, blue = democrat). The lighter the shade, the closer to 50%, the darker the shade the closer to 100%.
(all Election Maps from “uselectionatlas.org”)
Closest States:
Florida - R+0.0048%
Ohio - R+0.42%
New Jersey - D+0.68%
Georgia - R+1.63%
Maryland - D+1.88%
Michigan - D+1.92%
Wyoming - R+2.44%
North Carolina - D+2.69%
South Dakota - R+2.79%
Louisiana - R +2.82%
Missouri - D+3.14%
Kentucky - D +3.38%
Colorado - D+3.67%
Alaska - R+3.94
New Hampshire - D +3.95%
Indiana - R +4.7%
Kansas - R +4.96%
Gore’s Cabinet-to-Be:
Secretary of State: Zbigniew Brzezinski
Secretary of the Treasury: Lloyd Bentsen
Secretary of Defense: Sam Nunn
Attorney General: Sonia Sotomayor
Secretary of the Interior: Bruce Babbitt
Secretary of Agriculture: Dan Glickman
Secretary of Commerce: Ron Brown
Secretary of Labor: James Blanchard
Health and Human Services: Pat Schroeder
Housing and Urban Development: Henry Cisneros
Secretary of Transportation: Frederico Pena
Secretary of Energy: Hazel O'Leary
Secretary of Education: Richard Riley
Veteran Affairs: Jesse Brown
1992 House Election:
Colors represent the depth of each party's control (red = republican, blue = democrat). The lighter the shade, the closer to 50%, the darker the shade the closer to 100%. Gray states are split. Green is Bernie Sanders.
Democrats: 270 (-11) -50.9%
Republicans: 164 (+11) -47.8%
Independents: 1 (+/-) - 1.3%
Differences from Our Timeline:
Alabama 2nd District - Faye Baggiano (D) defeats Terry Everett (R) - 59.1 - 38.3
Alaska At Large - John Devens (D) - re-elected 56.5-33 in a rematch with Don Young
California[7] 4th - Patricia Malberg (D) defeats Patrick Doolittle (R) in a rematch, 58.6-36.9
California 10th - Wendell Williams (D) defeats William Baker (R) 54.4-45.6 in this new district
California 11th - Patti Garamendi (D) defeats Richard Pombo (R) 52 - 41.2 in this new district
California 22nd -Gary Hart (D) defeats Michael Huffington (R) 46.3 - 41.4
California 43rd - Mark Takano (D) defeats Ken Calvert (R) -52.8- 40.3
Connecticut 5th - Toby Moffett (D) defeats Gary Franks (R) in a rematch 41.5 - 33.2
Georgia[8] 4th - Cynthia McKinney wins with little challenge in this newly drawn heavily Democratic district
Georgia 6th - David Worley (D) defeats Newt Gingrich (R) in a rematch 52.8-47.2.
Georgia 11th - Cathy Steinberg (D) defeats John Linder (R) in this new swing district 52.7-47.3
Iowa 2nd - Eric Tabor (D) defeats Jim Nussle (R) in a rematch 61-39
Iowa 3rd -Elaine Baxter (D) defeats Jim Lightfoot (R) - 49-47
Illinois[9] 18th - Glenn Poshard (D) wins without major challenge
Maryland 5th - Larry Hogan (R) defeats Steny Hoyer (D) - 49.8-46.9
Massachusetts 1st - Patrick Larkin (R) defeats John Olver (R) - 48.7-46.2
Michigan[10] 7th - John Conyers (D) defeats Nick Smith (R) - 53.5 - 38.4
Michigan 11th - Milton Carr (D) defeats Joe Knoellenberg (R) - 65.8-30
Minnesota 2nd - Cal Ludeman (R) defeats David Minge (D) - 48-47.3
Missouri 9th - Rick Hardy (R) defeats Harold Volkmer (D) - 48.9-44.2
New York 2nd - Thomas Downey (D) defeats Rick Lazio (R) - 51-49
New York 4th - Phil Schiliro (D) defeats David Levy (R) - 51.4-48.6
North Carolina 11th - James Clarke (D) wins 57-43 in a rematch with Charles Taylor (R)
Ohio 6th - Bob McEwen (R) defeats Ted Strickland (D) - 50.4-49.6
Pennsylvania 13th - Jon Fox (R) defeats Marjorie Margolies-Mezvinsky (D) 51.4-48.6
Pennsylvania 18th - Jon Delano (D) defeats Rick Santorum (R) 53-47
Pennsylvania 20th - Bill Townsend (R) defeats Austin Murphy (D) 51-49
Washington 4th - Doc Hasting (R) defeats Jay Inslee (D) 52.2-47.8
1992 Senate Election:
Dark Blue: Democratic Pickup; Light Blue: Democratic Hold; Dark Red: Republican Pickup; Light Red: Republican Hold
Democrats - 61(+1)
Republicans - 39 (-1)
Differences from Our Timeline[11]:
California Senator Class I - Dianne Feinstein was elected Governor, so there's no special election. Pete Wilson (R) is still Senator.
Illinois - Alan Dixon (D) voted against Clarence Thomas ITTL and so isn't primaried by Carol Moseley Braun. He is re-elected 51-49 over Richard Williamson (R). Same party, different Senator
New York - Former Vice Presidential Candidate Geraldine Ferraro (D) defeats incumbent Senator Al D'Amato (R) 49.6 - 47.2
Oregon - Congressman Les AuCoin (D) defeats Superintendent Norma Paulis (R) 52.3-46.3 after Senator Packwood's abrupt withdrawal from the race after his scandals were revealed.
Closest Races:
New Hampshire - R+.09%
North Carolina - R+.55% (Flip)
New York - D+2.4% (Flip)
South Carolina - D+2.5%
Pennsylvania - R+3.2%
Georgia - R+3.25% (Flip)
Washington - D+4.94%
California - D+4.97%
Governor Race Changes:
Dark Blue: Democratic Pickup; Light Blue: Democratic Hold; Dark Red: Republican Pickup; Light Red: Republican Hold
Differences from Our Timeline:
Montana - Dorothy Bradley (D) defeats Marc Racicot (R) 53.4-46.6
Washington - Ken Eikenberry (R) defeats Don Bonker (D) 50.8-49.2
Governors after Election:
Democrats: 36(+2)
Republicans: 12 (-2)
Independents: 2 (+/-)
Year of the Woman Becomes Reality[12]
Washington Post, November 4th, 1992
It was at last month’s debate in Richmond where President Bush infamously declared, “This is supposed to be the year of the women in the Senate. Let's see how they do. I hope a lot of them lose.” This blunt statement came from the reality that while a record number of women were running for elected office, most were Democrats inspired to run by Clarence Thomas’ failed confirmation after Anita Hill’s dramatic testimony. Three female freshmen were elected to the Senate, joining Democratic Senator Barbara Mikulski, who was re-elected easily despite Maryland being close at the Presidential level, and Republican Senator Nancy Kassebaum. Nearly fifty women are set to be elected to the House. And in Montana it looks like Democrat Dorothy Bradley will be narrowly elected Governor, the first woman elected to that office.
Between both parties there were 10 female nominees for the Senate and just over 100 nominees for the House. Fortune favored female Democratic candidates; as Senator Al Gore was elected President, many women down ballot were elected as well. Unfortunately for the Republican Party, many of their female candidates went on to lose.
In New York, Geraldine Ferraro, who was the Democratic Party nominee for Vice President 8 years ago, parlayed her ties with the national party and the upswell of support for women to overcome a swirl of scandals around her family to narrowly win the Democratic primary in September and narrowly unseat Republican Al D’Amato.
In Washington State, Patty Murray (D), a self-styled “mom in tennis shoes”....
Cont’d on A4.
* * *
Dave Letterman: The election results are in and the winner is… (pretends to doze off and snore) …Oh, what, hey! I must have nodded off.
Paul: Who needs valium when you have a VHS tape of the Bush-Gore debates?
[1] Bush has been accused of groping women (some as young as 16 at the time) in a manner he considers “playful”. With such “zinger” lines as calling himself “David Cop-a-feel”. In this timeline with an earlier reckoning on such things, the allegations have surfaced earlier, and at the worst possible moment politically speaking.
[2] Random weather butterflies mean that a weaker Hurricane Andrew missed the US but a stronger, deadlier Bonnie hit the gulf coast as a Class 4.
[3] Note that
@jpj1421 ran the numbers both ways. The electoral map changes slightly with a Bush/Quayle ticket (e.g. Ohio and Georgia flip blue and Kentucky flips red), as do several down-ballot races, but Gore still won by a similar Popular and Electoral College vote margin.
[4] In a strange allo-ironic parallel to our timeline’s 2000 election (and one that came as a surprise to us), Bush will win Florida by a relative handful of votes, representing 0.0048% of the electorate. Unlike with his son in our timeline, it won’t matter since Gore still claimed 341 Electoral Votes even without Ohio and Florida.
[5] The New York Conservative Party Ticket nominated Bush with Quayle as the VP over New Yorker Jack Kemp.
[6] Convention boater hat tip to
@jpj1421 for the calculations for election returns and help on picking the Gore Cabinet.
[7] Governor Feinstein and the Democratic Legislature of California agreed to a districting plan where districts are 5-15 points more Democratic than in our timeline. Ah the power of flagrant Gerrymandering.
[8] Georgia has lines more like what they have in our timeline later in the nineties as Dick Thornburgh is still AG under Bush and isn't as aggressive with the VRA districts as AG Burr was, plus Gingrich isn't in Congress so the Georgia Speaker, who was his constituent, doesn't need to spitefully draw his house out of a Republican district...that he just moves to and wins in anyway.
[9] Illinois Democrats get to gerrymander the state in this timeline, whereas Republicans won that right in a coin toss in ours, and 7 out of 20 districts are completely different than their allohistorical counterpart. Districts 1, 3, 4, 5, and 18 are supposed to be heavily Democratic, 6 is given a slightly more Republican tilt, and 15 becomes a Republican vote sink as Minority Leader Michl and Thomas Ewing are drawn into the same district.
[10] Much like Illinois, Michigan in this timeline is drawn with districts heavily favorable to Democrats.
[11]
New York: Geraldine Ferraro wins the primary and defeats Al D'Amato. D'Amato was the primary instigator of the White Water and Ken Star investigations. Hillary Clinton particularly savored campaigning for Chuck Schumer in 1998 to beat him.
Oregon: Bob Packwood's problems come to light and Les AuCoin (D) is elected
[12] Guest Post by
@jpj1421; Note that The Year of the Woman is actually slightly down compared to our timeline for a number of reasons. Dianne Feinstein is Governor of California so there is no special election to replace Pete Wilson in the Senate. Alan Dixon voted against Thomas in this timeline, and so didn’t face a primary challenge from Carol Mosely Braun. In this timeline Geraldine Ferraro gets a slight boost from increased support for women enough to win the primary narrowly and enough to win the general election narrowly. Yeakel in Pennsylvania does better than in our timeline, but Kemp’s support in the suburbs boosts Specter’s support while also sinking Marjorie Margolies, who was narrowly elected to represent Montgomery County in our timeline. The drop in base support from the Quayle switch secures Montana for the Democrats.