Until Every Drop of Blood Is Paid: A More Radical American Civil War

[AlexGarcia]

Lerdo de Tejada became president as a result of Juárez's death because he was the president of the Supreme Court, which at that time it was the role established to become interim president in case the president died or was unable to do its duties. Also, in the elections of 1870, where Juárez finally won, the second candidate was Díaz. Have all that in mind. If Juárez dies before the elections Díaz will win because right now, he's too popular in the populace (the liberation of Puebla in the last days of the French intervention basically catapulted him into glory).

 

[Kylia]

The lack of material and volunteers leads to Juarez having to be more strenuous in his conduct of the war putting a greater strain on him which leads to a more severe heart attack... yeah, I can see it. Will second the above.

That said, I'm assuming the same guy succeeds Juarez in OTL before Porfirio?
Do wonder if Juarez not seeking a third term could go some way towards dampening that successor's (and maybe by extension Porfirio's) desire to seek re-election in their own right.

Porfirio's whole office excuse for trying to get rid of Juarez, and then Lerdo after him was no-reelection. He just wanted power and picked whatever excuse he could.

 

[AlexGarcia]

Porfirio's whole office excuse for trying to get rid of Juarez, and then Lerdo after him was no-reelection. He just wanted power and picked whatever excuse he could.

Juárez also was considered already some sort of autocrat since he was the president since 1858 and he intended to reelect himself. Lerdo de Tejada was overthrown by the Tuxtepec Revolution, led by Díaz, because he intended to be reelected. Yes, Díaz was essentially an autocrat, but that doesn't excuse both Lerdo and Juárez of aspire to similar goals.

The Constitution allowed reelection at that time, so, constitutionally, Díaz managed to reach power and maintain it. Another of the reasons he stayed reelecting himself was because the intellectuals wanted him to be reelected. The Cientificos (said intellectuals, inspired by positivist ideals) considered that a transitional dictatorship/hybrid regime was beneficial to the economic and political development of the country. This article (in spanish) examines the Porfiriato and concludes that even respected intellectuals like Justo Sierra considered necessary the reelection of Díaz to secure the development of Mexico:

Justo Sierra, in his first period, was convinced that the Díaz regime should be imposed with its personalism and authoritarianism, because:

The indigenous class will be a perpetual obstacle to the normalization of democracy, because their hereditary tendencies and traditions condemn them to live under an oligarchic and patriarchal regime at the same time, the only political means that allows them to live in peace, the only one that exists under the disguise of constitutional and liberal principles. ​

Sierra offers an aseptic version of Diaz's seizure of power and legitimizes his constant reelections.

The intellectuals were tired of the chaos that the country had and favoured (or tried to enforce) Order and Progress, the positivist way of life. My point is simply:
1. That characterizing the Porfiriato as a mere result of Díaz being a person with hungry for power is wrong, when the conditions of Mexico and the political thoughts of the Mexican intellectuals demanded someone that enforced an autocracy if that helped Mexico to finally stabilize;
2. That even if you remove Díaz from the equation, someone else will become him. It doesn't matter if its Juárez, Lerdo de Tejada or even Maximilian. Order and Progress will be enforced, because that's what it was demanded. Autocracy, in that sense, is basically unavoidable.

 

[Kylia]

Yes, but my point is that Diaz would still aspire to be a dictator with or without Juarez and Lerdo seeking reelection (which, at the time, they could do legally). It absolutely required buy-in from the elites to work, but he still would have aspired to it.

As for someone else trying to become dictator - maybe. Assuming Jaurez or Lerdo had the same autocratic impulses, which are big assumes, especially in the case of Juarez. But Diaz was an exceptionally skilled operator who managed to fairly deftly manage the situation for decades (until stumbling repeatedly in the last few years), and someone else would not have necessarily had the same ability to govern as well as he did, or in the same effective manner. Or even if they were capable, they might have genuinely believed there was a time to step down and let democracy happen (which Diaz clearly did not genuinely believe, see 1910), or they might have been able to manage succession better than Diaz did so the regime they create actually survives them anyway.

It's very, very open to interpretation, and very little in history is inevitable.

 

[Jord839]

Right, you all know what? The TL is finished, this is now a Second Mexican Empire Timeline!

Just joking I haven't decided at all what will happen in Mexico, one way or the other. The only thing that has been established is that the Second Empire has happened and that the US is not friendly to the idea. Regarding the rest, it's up in the air. I am aware that, if there is one foreign element I need to discuss, it is this one, because it impacted US foreign policy in a big way. Nonetheless, the focus will remain in the US and its domestic affairs, and thus I'm not likely to write about a full-fledged intervention there. All these ideas and possibilities that I've been floating are all about what I think might be interesting. Because I frankly don't want to just retread OTL - it would be neither fun for me to write nor for you to read. That's why I appreciate all this conversations, they could inspire new possibilities once we get there. But please don't get me wrong and think that it is set in stone that I want the Second Empire to survive.

That said, I especially thank you for this comment @Jord839, since it does bring up the great point that Radical Republicans might see in the Second Empire a reflection of the Confederacy, with its landed aristocracy. Somehow I hadn't made the connection.

Not to say that Benito Juarez was flawless, as subsequent comments have underlined, but my point is more that both Maximilian isn't quite as great as some myths state and that the US will always have a deep antipathy towards the idea of a Mexican Empire over a Mexican Republic.

There's a reason Cinco de Mayo is more popular in the US than Mexico, and it's in large part because Mexican-Americans deliberately tied the conflict between themselves and the landed elite with whom old Maxy by default had to make connections to the Southern Planters. This isn't purely a US American thing, but a genuine reflection of cross-border sentiment made by Mexicans of that era to inspire sympathy and support from the US for their fight against the Imperial forces. Even if the timeline sees Max stay on top, the US is unlikely to let that go, and will in turn likely become a haven for dissident factions to Mexico in some fashion.

Essentially, even if the Second Empire remains in Mexico for a time, expect the US to be a constant destabilizing influence on their border. Which, you know, could also work in your favor if you want to cement US anti-racism with a large Mexican Republican population shaping politics and ensuring the US doesn't renege on its hostility towards landed elites in favor of colonialism.

There's several ways you could take the political conflict to still achieve your aims, but I think ultimately the Mexican Empire is doomed in the long term.

 

[NedStark]

Lerdo de Tejada became president as a result of Juárez's death because he was the president of the Supreme Court, which at that time it was the role established to become interim president in case the president died or was unable to do its duties. Also, in the elections of 1870, where Juárez finally won, the second candidate was Díaz. Have all that in mind. If Juárez dies before the elections Díaz will win because right now, he's too popular in the populace (the liberation of Puebla in the last days of the French intervention basically catapulted him into glory).

You can have Juarez endorsing, throwing weight around and campaigning for Lerdo in elections to avert Diaz by ensuring that most of the votes he gained IOTL would go to Lerdo instead of Diaz.

Yes, but my point is that Diaz would still aspire to be a dictator with or without Diaz and Lerdo seeking reelection (which, at the time, they could do legally). It absolutely required buy-in from the elites to work, but he still would have aspired to it.

As for someone else trying to become dictator - maybe. Assuming Jaurez or Lerdo had the same autocratic impulses, which are big assumes, especially in the case of Juarez. But Diaz was an exceptionally skilled operator who managed to fairly deftly manage the situation for decades (until stumbling repeatedly in the last few years), and someone else would not have necessarily had the same ability to govern as well as he did, or in the same effective manner. Or even if they were capable, they might have genuinely believed there was a time to step down and let democracy happen (which Diaz clearly did not genuinely believe, see 1910), or they might have been able to manage succession better than Diaz did so the regime they create actually survives them anyway.

It's very, very open to interpretation, and very little in history is inevitable.

Another factor is that Diaz is a military leader, which means he could (and did) go further than any civilian politician could dream of.

 

[Kylia]

Another factor is that Diaz is a military leader, which means he could (and did) go further than any civilian politician could dream of.

Also true. Diaz was able to bring the army to heel in a way no previous president had. His credentials as a general and his record of military success, as it was (and as it was inflated) helped with that immensely.

 

[Ammonios]

Hello,

So with Mobile and Atlanta secured, can other potential victories be built from these in the immediate term or ways that the Confederates could be tied up even more?

 

[Milarqui]

Hello,

So with Mobile and Atlanta secured, can other potential victories be built from these in the immediate term or ways that the Confederates could be tied up even more?

Well, with the fall of Mobile, the Confederacy is technically split in two. That's going to be a big morale booster. And the Confederate Army will be pressed to retake that part, which means (a) resources spent there that won't be spent elsewhere, (b) an opening (particularly for the Trans-Mississippi theater) to further advance and liberate more territory.

 

[AlexGarcia]

You can have Juarez endorsing, throwing weight around and campaigning for Lerdo in elections to avert Diaz by ensuring that most of the votes he gained IOTL would go to Lerdo instead of Diaz.

That will only delay the rise of Díaz if Lerdo de Tejada decides to reelect himself. Again, the Tuxtepec Revolution occurred because Lerdo tried to reelect himself. In case he doesn't maybe, just maybe, Díaz won't rise.

 

[generalurist]

With Mobile and Atlanta falling after Sherman's march, in TTL there is no effective Confederate presence left between the Mississippi and Appalachia! That's a huge area of the deep south where liberation and radical land reform has been carried out under wartime conditions! Compare that to OTL, where even up to the surrender a large part of the south had never experienced Union boots. A big change!

 

[Ammonios]

Hello,

Also, with confiscated lands being distributed to former slaves, they seem to be encouraged to continue growing cotton. Can there be other cash crops to grow that can be just as profitable or even more so?

 

[Red_Galiray]

Note: In the last update I said that Governor Robison of Kentucky fled after the Kentucky riots. @xxmagex, who also provided me with other valuable info, has pointed out to me that in 1864 Robinson had been replaced with Thomas Bramlette. Bramlette seems to have been more moderate, but his Lieutenant Governor was a Richard Taylor Jacob, who was a more extreme pro-slavery man. So I have edited the update, and now it's former governor Robinson and current Lieutenant Governor Taylor the ones who are banished - and Bramlette, though held by a tigther leash, remains in power.

There's a reason Cinco de Mayo is more popular in the US than Mexico, and it's in large part because Mexican-Americans deliberately tied the conflict between themselves and the landed elite with whom old Maxy by default had to make connections to the Southern Planters. This isn't purely a US American thing, but a genuine reflection of cross-border sentiment made by Mexicans of that era to inspire sympathy and support from the US for their fight against the Imperial forces. Even if the timeline sees Max stay on top, the US is unlikely to let that go, and will in turn likely become a haven for dissident factions to Mexico in some fashion.

Frankly, I've always believed Cinco de Mayo is popular because it's a nice excuse to get drunk.

Just to be clear, I still maintain I have no plan for Mexico right now. Honestly, this entire discussion has convinced me somewhat that Max remaining in power is an imposibility, and I might as well just limit myself to the US instead of trying to explore the whole mess in detail. But I don't know. I'll focus on the US and when we get there we'll see what happens.

That will only delay the rise of Díaz if Lerdo de Tejada decides to reelect himself. Again, the Tuxtepec Revolution occurred because Lerdo tried to reelect himself. In case he doesn't maybe, just maybe, Díaz won't rise.

You know, I might end up kindly requesting your help if I ever decide to explore the situation in Mexico with any depth.

Hello,

So with Mobile and Atlanta secured, can other potential victories be built from these in the immediate term or ways that the Confederates could be tied up even more?

Basically the vitals of the Confederacy are now exposed. The Union can now march through Georgia and up the Carolinas. But we'll see more of the situation in the next update!

Well, with the fall of Mobile, the Confederacy is technically split in two. That's going to be a big morale booster. And the Confederate Army will be pressed to retake that part, which means (a) resources spent there that won't be spent elsewhere, (b) an opening (particularly for the Trans-Mississippi theater) to further advance and liberate more territory.

Three, really. Remember that Grant's victory at the Mississippi already split the Confederacy in two parts. Now, it's divided into three - though the area between Alabama and Mississippi is not so much Confederate territory as no-man's land that the Union is slowly but surely bringing into its control.

With Mobile and Atlanta falling after Sherman's march, in TTL there is no effective Confederate presence left between the Mississippi and Appalachia! That's a huge area of the deep south where liberation and radical land reform has been carried out under wartime conditions! Compare that to OTL, where even up to the surrender a large part of the south had never experienced Union boots. A big change!

That's very important indeed! Especially with how Lincoln has allowed the enslaved to "pre-empt" land, it means that a lot of that land is being taken over even before the Yankees arrive. And when they do, they are ready to bring in tools, seed, legal titles, and arms. It's a more radical destruction of the old order and reconstruction of a new one, compared with OTL where many areas remained untouched.

Hello,

Also, with confiscated lands being distributed to former slaves, they seem to be encouraged to continue growing cotton. Can there be other cash crops to grow that can be just as profitable or even more so?

The Federal authorities are indeed encouraging the growing of cotton, sometimes quite forcefully. They are not interested in other crops, and the freedmen too realize that this is their best bet, and focus on that aside from growing some food for themselves. In the short term, it's unlikely that they will grow anything more. Sugar probably will be revived after the war by Northern capital, rice never really returned to its former glory, and I don't think tobacco was that productive then. In the longer term some diversification is sure to follow.

 

[Ammonios]

Hello,

Sugar probably will be revived after the war by Northern capital, rice never really returned to its former glory, and I don't think tobacco was that productive then. In the longer term some diversification is sure to follow.

Yes, that is certainly something to follow through on. Incidentally, would there be a need to industrialize parts of the South in order to diversify its economy in the intermediate future? Of course, will there be people there with the foresight to realize that? Developments along those lines can pave the way to economic recovery for all Southern populations and probably help to bury the old attitudes that led to the war.

Once the war is over and its immediate aftermath resolved, would there be an epilogue that gives an overview of say 20 or 30 years into the future? It does not need to be all inclusive and it would make for a satisfactory conclusion to this story.

 

[Red_Galiray]

Hello,


Yes, that is certainly something to follow through on. Incidentally, would there be a need to industrialize parts of the South in order to diversify its economy in the intermediate future? Of course, will there be people there with the foresight to realize that? Developments along those lines can pave the way to economic recovery for all Southern populations and probably help to bury the old attitudes that led to the war.

Once the war is over and its immediate aftermath resolved, would there be an epilogue that gives an overview of say 20 or 30 years into the future? It does not need to be all inclusive and it would make for a satisfactory conclusion to this story.

The goal of industrializing the South was actually a widely shared one. Even the "moderate" Whigs that took control during Johnson's Presidential Reconstruction tried to take steps to bring industry to the region, but failed because they couldn't break the mold of the plantation. Republican regimes during Radical Reconstruction tried then as well, but their efforts fell short, due to a combination of economic crisis, political unstability, and remaining destruction due to the war. I plan to change all this to assure at least a measure of economic diversification in the future.

I am committed to finishing the TL until Reconstruction ends, around the 1880's. This, I've expressed in the past, is merely Part I. But after that? I have in the past commented on possible plans to continue this to the modern day. But recently I've started to realize how truly gargantuan a commitment that would be. It's been almost 5 years and I haven't even finished Part I (we're getting close though!). So I don't really know if those plans could ever be realized. I might try to write a second installment, or a third or a fourth. I may just write an epilogue. I may write a second installment that's all broad updates that look at decades, far from the detail here. I don't know yet. But I will say that I intend for the complete TL, Part I and II united, to be a coherent, whole story in its own right that's satisfactory to my readers. I hope I succeed.

 

[AlexGarcia]

You know, I might end up kindly requesting your help if I ever decide to explore the situation in Mexico with any depth.

No problem! If you want, we can kindly discuss the details about Mexico at that time, and since I believe both of us speak Spanish, it should be very easy to do so.

My only consideration is that, as I said in the discussion of above, my perception is that, unfortunately, the rise of an autocracy in Mexico is basically inevitable, because positivism being a thing has made the intellectuals advocating for a hybrid regime that must enforce order in the country. Maybe if the Americans help a little with the Mexican economy, that can be avoided partially.

The main issue I can see if the Americans help Juárez actively is that there will be two contradictory opinions: that the US must enforce Mexico being in its sphere of influence (US), and that Mexico is a free and sovereign country (Mexico).

 

[Nuka1]

So what if it is Díaz who dies early ? Martyr for rebublican cause.

 

[Knightmare]

The Federal authorities are indeed encouraging the growing of cotton, sometimes quite forcefully. They are not interested in other crops, and the freedmen too realize that this is their best bet, and focus on that aside from growing some food for themselves. In the short term, it's unlikely that they will grow anything more. Sugar probably will be revived after the war by Northern capital, rice never really returned to its former glory, and I don't think tobacco was that productive then. In the longer term some diversification is sure to follow.

There's also the fact that well, they do have experience with growing it, so it makes a little sense.

 

[Arnold d.c]

Sugar probably will be revived after the war by Northern capital

On sugar, given the greater scarcity of post-war labor, it might bring about 'Yellow Peril' earlier ITTL. IOTL Louisiana brought over Chinese coolies to work in the sugar plantations. The planters had hoped that the Chinese laborers' lower pay would force the freedmen to compete with them by asking lower pay to the planters... except the Chinese coolies instead chose to demand equal wages and refused to accept any violation of their contracts. The presence of Chinese coolies were arguably the seeds for the Chinese exclusion acts in the 1880s, pro-slavery men didn't like the coolies because of racial hierarchy and abolitionists did not want them because they feared that the coolie system would force the competing freedmen to accept conditions akin to slavery. The latter was not true, but I could see the debates accelerated ITTL.

 

[KeyAbrade]

But instead of being cowed, the rebels let out a contemptuous laugh. “We couldn’t believe that they put up niggers against us,” one would say later. “The boys were eager to go and show ‘em what we did with the Negroes of Harpers Ferry”. The attack went forward, Jackson and his men expecting an easy victory.

I read this, realized Jackson's men were about to go up against 54th USCT, and thought "do you not know death when you see it, old man?"

Really, it's amazing how you can alter LOTR quotes to fit this series.

"Come not between the liberator and his slavocrat prey, Southerner, or he shall not spare thee in thy turn. His blades and arms shall bear thee to the fields of Armageddon, below the Mason–Dixon line, where thy body shall be annihilated and thy immoral cruelties shall be left naked before the rights of man."