Yeah not even close to that. Its more like "the Hawaiian monarchy dated someone who said they wanted to rape someone and got surprised when they were raped." Again the businesses weren't hiding their eventual goals in regards to the islands. If they had been smart about it they would've had both British and American businesses involved to play off each other.
Until Every Drop of Blood Is Paid: A More Radical American Civil War
- Thread starter Red_Galiray
- Start date
I will come back to reply to the rest of comments later. For now could we cut it off with this specific discussion and the bad metaphors? I believe we're getting dreadfully offtopic.
I have better things to do than try and find a loser like this, in addition to respecting you and respecting your request.
But oh boy does this jackass make it tempting.
"...as a marxist apologizes for communist regimes" ah yes, because apologizing for regimes that were undemocratic, routinely violated the human rights of its populace, and otherwise often saw a decline in standard of living and political rights is obviously even remotely comparable to someone who acknowledges the problems and excesses with Reconstruction but ultimately does not condemn it because its entire purpose was to enforce the "Civil War Amendments" and, as a part of that, protect the civil rights and lives of Black people, who were almost universally formerly enslaved in the South.
Uncle Tom's cabin is a "scaremongering propaganist screed" now? Ok, sure. I mean I really wonder what about it is scaremongering, since it's not like it pushes an idea that slavers want to enslave white people too, but what do I know?
Any wrong to southerners, slave and abolitionist alike? What southern abolitionists? I won't say none existed, but I doubt it'd be much of an exaggeration to say that expressing pro-abolition and/or 13th, 14th, and 15th Amendment views in the south even during Reconstruction would be a good way to get death threats and lose most if not all of your (white) friends.
"Inhumane oppression is no great sin in the balance of a greater ideology."
I'd say there's no way you're not being trolled, because nobody's so dense as to miss the irony in that statement, but this is a Lost-Causer. (Bonus points for describing Reconstruction as "inhumane oppression," because telling people who started/fought a highly traumatic Civil War that they don't get to vote for a bit and that they can't form terrorist organizations to oppress minorities is obviously Yankee Tyranny and overreach.)
"Proto neocons"? Who the fuck is he even talking about, the moderate wing of the Republican party in the 1860s? Also, this whole paragraph is just, 10/10 grammar and reasoned logic. (I mean, really. "Ideologically imperialism"?! What, "We actually believe in the UN Declaration of Universal Human Rights and want others to also "buy into" those values."? Also, call me crazy, but I think actual imperialism probably tends to make people a lot more upset than trying to promote your values.) I'm not even touching the rest of that, in no small part because it's so wrong and illogical I don't even know where to start.
"Oblivious insult-to-you to say the causes of the Civil War would be one word." Oh, please explain to me how saying the Civil War was caused by and (at least for the South) fought to try and preserve slavery and white supremacy is anything other than just telling the truth. Call me crazy, but literally saying "We're doing this because of slavery, which we want to preserve above all" in your declaration of secession can probably be taken at face value.
"Same lack of humanity you blankly apply to all southern inhabitants" I'm sorry, who were the people who started a fucking Civil War to preserve slavery, were completely unrepentant to the point that the army had to be stationed there so they wouldn't murder Freedmen and their allies, and then spent the next 90-100 years explicitly working to oppress minorities and champion white supremacy? It wasn't Billie Yank, that's for sure!
(While one shouldn't overgeneralize groups of people, harshly criticizing the American South for practicing and supporting chattel slavery, refusing to acknowledge the humanity of the enslaved people whose suffering is basically incomprensible, as well as the political violence and terrorism and various forms of oppression and violently enforcing white supremacy after Reconstruction should not be a position you have to defend. While still complex, 3-dimensional individuals, I also think that a society such as that is a good demonstration of how insidious slavery, especially chattel slavery, is, and how, in my view, it poisons all that it touches, and to act like people who purposefully dehumanize and oppress their follow man, and are willing to do almost everything to enforce it are not undermining their own empathy and humanity is stupid.)
Sorry. I made the mistake of actually reading what was behind the spoiler, and it pissed me off so much I felt the need to rebut or counter at least most of it.
Speaking of Paraguay, a US president not being interested enough to save it would have some very serious butterflies for South America. Besides starting another war that Brazil wins, the fallout over this could set a precedent for Brazilian expansion which would affect Latin America indefinitely. Like imagine a Brazil that is jingoistic enough to go for Uruguay or Bolivia next. And imagine an anti-Brazilian alliance comprising of all the Spanish-speaking South American nations.
Another interesting potential outcome is what will happen to Egypt if the cotton industry in the South takes longer to recover with a longer Reconstruction. A part of me suspects that the radical reshuffling in the South will affect the cotton industry there significantly.
Another interesting potential outcome is what will happen to Egypt if the cotton industry in the South takes longer to recover with a longer Reconstruction. A part of me suspects that the radical reshuffling in the South will affect the cotton industry there significantly.
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Honestly Uruguay was basically a Brazilian puppet in all but name(that was one of the Casus Belli Solano Lopes used for starting the war, the fact Brazil had just invaded a place where it's president was his ally and installed one more favorable to its interests) so there wouldn't really be a need for annexation, although one third of Uruguay's population was Brazilian at that point so maybe they pull off a Texas?
As for Bolivia... Well Acre is right there and Paraguay OTL fought a war against Bolivia for the Chaco region which they won btw, so Bolivia would definitely lose a chunk of itself to the Brazilian hegemon. Maybe a alliance between Chile and Brazil as both tear apart Bolivia and Argentina for their own gains? It would be interesting and something never seen before.
Honestly I don't see a grand coalition forming against Brazil tbh, the Guianas are European colonies and thus off the menu, the former nations of Gran Colombia have the advantage that the Amazon rainforest protects against any incursion against them and the same would go for any of their attacks against Brazil, Peru is too far away to care, and Bolivia is too weak, only Argentina could pose a threat but even then we have established that Argentina would lose if war with Brazil erupted as well as the possible alliance with Chile between it and Brazil.
Brazil would have a lot of available land for immigrants, both internal fleeing from the Sertao as well those coming from Europe not to mention, so we could see more Iberians, Italians, Germans and Slavs migrating to the newly conquered regions alongside Brazilian migrants, free people of color and the locals who are mostly mestizo and Amerindians, which would be the "ideal" image of Brazil and of course help the government to better control the areas by having it flooded with loyal citizens.
Honestly Egypt might not crash too hard if they don't have competition of the South, they might continue as a independent nation if they don't fall too heavily on debt but I'm interested to see what would happen.
I suppose another war plus a bigger desire to end slavery sees the monarchy gone or forced to reform which means a new constitution. That itself could mean Uruguay joining Brazil if the Brazilian government can negotiate well with Uruguayans into making sure the new Brazilian government suits them fine. Uruguay broke off since the original Brazilian monarchy didn't accept a reformed constitution so maybe a reformed constitution Uruguay likes convinces them to join? Though I dunno enough about that part of the world to come up with a definitive conclusion.
Fair enough about the rest. I could see Brazilian business interests push for an annexation of all of Bolivia for its mineral resources and access to the Pacific if an alt-second war in Paraguay empowers the war hawks enough. That itself would be interesting and something Peru and maybe Chile could oppose for good reason.
My guess is that no sharecropping system and no class of planters remaining means Southern agriculture is so radically changed with freedmen farmers making their own decisions on what they wanna plant. I suppose Unionists could convince freedmen to grow cotton by telling them how much money they'll made. But my guess is that freedmen having the freedom to grow something else means less cotton for export which means some parties might fill in the partial vacuum left behind. So Egypt could take advantage of this. Though the difference made up may not be that much. And the Union will definitely have an interest in trying to keep the cotton industry alive.
I hadn't thought of that. On the one hand, the South will be more devastated and will have a longer recovery time. On the other hand, there have been explicit mentions of Sherman's troops and others seizing cotton, so (imho) it's not like it's stopped being grown and in the immediate post-war years it's very likely to be the crop turned to to try and help pay the war debt and Reconstruction. On the third hand, with the major land redistribution taking place, I think you could argue either way: the million of acres of land that have been redistributed to now-free Black people (especially veterans) and white Unionists may end up being mostly used for food (it's been mentioned that IRL there was a famine or near-famine in the South, and here it's obviously going to be worse. While someone asserted it was mostly a "transportation" issue, I think no matter how you slice it these farmers, especially ones who'll have been working the land for 1-3 years already in places like the Trans-Mississippi will prioritize growing their food, not cash crops.) On the other hand, just because they're relatively small lots doesn't mean there won't be any cotton planted, and depending on how much acreage is typically needed to grow enough food, it may be possible that cotton still ends up as the most planted crop by acre (e.g. if you have 40 acres, and you need 10, bare minimum, for your family to not starve, so you grow corn and beans and rice and whatever else on 15-20, use 0-5 for livestock, and the rest (15-20) for cotton, then while at most half is cotton, the rest is a plurality of multiple different crops).
While interesting to think about, I'm not sure it makes much of a difference in the end. I'm mostly familiar with what was going on in Egypt thanks to Victoria 2 mods such as GFM (which is to say, it's a lot more than Tom, Dick, and Harry, but not that much), but my understanding is by 1860 Muhammad Ali had died and his successors mostly or entirely failed to continue and expand his reforms and modernization efforts, which meant that Egypt began to stagnate and fall behind again. Additionally, since the ACW disrupted the largest producer of cotton, other places, like Egypt, jumped on the chance to increase their market share and make money. IIRC it borrowed a lot of money to try and do this. When the ACW ended and the market began to stabilize, and prices fell, this had a ruinous effect for Egypt, and the fallout would be a key factor in Britain's increasing control over it.
Maybe, as long Uruguay's elites can be coopted it should be fine.
And yes, I do think slavery will end sooner than later, especially with the prestige of the army(which became quite a abolitionist because of the war) as well of the Emperor making it more acceptable(or rather, dangerous to oppose) position or we could go with the alt route of passing the sexagenary and womb laws that makes all people over 60 free and any people born to slave parents or a free parent and slave parent a free person automatically, thus giving more space for free blacks to integrate themselves better in society. In fact, with the newly conquered lands, we could see the immigrants going there while leaving the cities towards the growing mass of emancipated blacks who would gladly take the industrial jobs showing up, which would mean a Brazil that is black and mixed majority earlier but who aren't "a threat" because they wouldn't be the oppressed class anymore(mostly) but just workers, which would allow for a much better Brazilian economy that shifts towards industry instead of just relying on it's agricultural wealth, which would definitely make them the lords of South America.
Conquering all of Bolivia is.... Not impossible, but I do wonder about supply lines as well as insurgency in the mountains Brazil isn't used to fighting, not saying they couldn't absorb the country given it's small population at the time but it would be a hard digestion, not to mention defending the coast from a Peru and Chile invasion... Again not impossible but certainly hard.
Agreed. I suppose it'll lead to a small bump in prices compared to OTL but other than that it may not change much so Egypt is mostly screwed either way perhaps. I am very interested in the possible outcomes in the South otherwise. Hell, there's a strong chance Black politicians could lobby enough for infrastructure and other improvements to improve agricultural production and transportation.
Never knew about the army being abolitionist. Having even bigger prestige means abolitionism can go even faster. And I do bet the government will need to make a plan on what to do with all freed slaves. Hiring them in industry would do the economy wonders without a doubt.
Agreed about Bolivia. Definitely won't be easy, will expect a few indigenous revolts here and there, and will encourage a lot of distrust with the other South American neighbors.
Indeed, it also helps them build a loyal base that can counter the influence of the large gentry that have power, especially in the Northeast and the interior. So hopefully Pedro and Isabella can use use the growing economy to solidify their power and continue developing Brazil, like the railroad project to connect the interior to the coasts as well as between major cities.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't a huge part of the fall of the monarchy not a matter of the coup genuinely having a chance, so much as the emperor having been depressed for a long time at that point since both of his sons died off? I seem to remember that being the thing, what with him having basically withdrawn from leadership around the last decade or so of his reign as a result. I dunno. The conversation here that seems to treat it as if the coup had actual strength to it just seems counter-intuitive to what I know of the coup being it only succeeded because the emperor didn't resist at all because he pretty much didn't want to rule anymore. It wasn't just him seeing the monarchy as ending with him because of views on Isabella, but a broader decline in his mental health. Like, maybe Isabella becoming a political figure will help his mental health out a bit, but I doubt that alone would be enough to lift his depression.
I also remember Isabella herself wasn't all that interested in statescraft. It wasn't just a matter of gender views pushing the idea that an empress would not be a good fit for Brazil (though undoubtedly that bears a more systemic influence behind forming a foundation of Isabella and Pedro's views on an Empress). She had individual social and political goals she liked to participate in during her father's reign (including abolitionism), but the broader aspects of statescraft and administration she disliked. I can't really see her volunteering to take leadership roles in some of these things during her father's reign that you guys are bringing up.
If I am completely wrong or misremembering key details, I apologize.
I also remember Isabella herself wasn't all that interested in statescraft. It wasn't just a matter of gender views pushing the idea that an empress would not be a good fit for Brazil (though undoubtedly that bears a more systemic influence behind forming a foundation of Isabella and Pedro's views on an Empress). She had individual social and political goals she liked to participate in during her father's reign (including abolitionism), but the broader aspects of statescraft and administration she disliked. I can't really see her volunteering to take leadership roles in some of these things during her father's reign that you guys are bringing up.
If I am completely wrong or misremembering key details, I apologize.
No that is pretty much correct. The way things were heading the government was building itself into enough of an institution the civil service could, and would, run the country on its own regardless of who was Emperor or Empress.
The coup was a last ditch effort of a tiny group who saw that was where things were headed and, because of Pedro's reaction, snatched success from the jaws of failure. And promptly fucked over the country because they had no preparation or plans whatsoever and started by essentially disbanding the entire government. It is one of those events that if it hadn't happened would definitely be called ASB in a TL.
Both of you are correct, Pedro really didn't give a flying a fuck anymore, he never did much considering he was forced to the throne at age 15 and had been robbed of his youth to study and prepare for it so it was no wonder he eventually gave up on it entirely, he did however still have a prestige and sense of duty to the nation that made him keep going until the coup, so he could soldier on for a while more.
And like @chrnno said, the coup was stupidly lucky in the fact it somehow succeeded, if we want to be "realistic" and if we consider the proposed Brazilian expansion, it could very well end up in failure and the empire moving along, although something like it becoming a actual constitutional monarchy(an actual one, not the de jure it was when something like the "4th power, the Moderator one" existed) not through revolution but simply because the government has evolved enough that it doesn't need intervention by part of the monarchy except under a few conditions here and there, seeing something like a former absolutist Brazil becoming a democratic thing with time would be interesting to the TL.
I don't think there is anything that would point to this USA being less imperialistic because it's less racists. Furthermore, this egalitarism is to the benefit of Black Americans. I don't believe this would result in less racism against the Chinese, Latin Americans, or even Black Africans. A racist can easily say that Black Americans are the few ones that are fit for civilization thanks to American civilization - Black, Asian, Native American and Latin American people who hadn't been similarly blessed by American civilization could still be thought of as savages.
I don't believe so. Fundamentally, almost all Republicans including Lincoln believed in a future where all of the US was exploited by free men in a free labor society. In their vision, the West was for the settlement of White men. In fact, a chief reason for opposing slavery, for both the Republican leaders and the rank-and-file, was that if slavery was allowed to expand into the territories, they would be unable to settle them and make them into an image of the North. So no one would ever support putting an end to Western expansion or using the Army to keep White settlers out. There's no need to be self-denigrating, though! I appreciate all suggestions, but I'm afraid that this one is not realistic.
I'll be honest and say I'm kind of tempted by the idea of the Philippines remaining Spanish, or at least getting their independence directly, because having them being Spanish speaking would be very interesting. Did you all know the original Philippines anthem was composed with lyrics in Spanish?
I envision permanent disenfranchisement for the worst rebels as well. Anyone who had served in a guerrilla band, in the Confederate Army with the rank of colonel or superior, in any position in its States governments, in any position in its Central government, or had served in any position in a US state or the Federal government and had then joined the rebellion.
Being Latin American, I of course want to include interesting butterflies in my region... but I wouldn't like for Paraguay to cease to exist either!
Grant did mediate between Japan and China after he left office, so that possibility isn't inconceivable.
I'll just be direct and say I have no desire for Wilson to be "redeemed". I believe I'll just ignore him.
Heh. I actually had no idea that there was a region there called Mesopotamia so this was what I thought of at first lol.
The only thing that has been established was that France did invade Mexico and installed Maximilian in the throne. That resulted in Lincoln pressing for a Texas campaign that ended in Rosecrans getting lost in Texas. I don't think there should be any major deviations from OTL yet. But the Second Empire can result in interesting butterflies come the end of the war, with Confederates fleeing to Mexico and trying to join Maximilian, and many people, both Southern and Northern, believing that declaring war and marching to oust Maximilian could be a way to unite the US again... which to me sounds like a completely stupid idea.
Spain retaining a speack of imperial integrity? i'm on board.
Same, colombian over here, and i really hope the Empire of Brazil can endure.
Yay! lincoln doing so will be so awesome!
And on a separate note i hope Maximilan gets a better deal in mexico and that Napoleon III also does in europe.
Heyyy, cómo es que recién me entero que eres Latinoamericano también? Te he visto comentar varias veces en el thread, y claro siempre lo he apreciado, pero es aún mejor sabiendo que viene de alguien de un país hermano
I actually want that too. Unfortunately, I don't know if it's plausible.