The Unwanted Clairvoyant. A different French strategy in WW1

This is looking potentially very dangerous for the Germans. If Eighth Army gets wrecked, there's really nothing else on the Eastern Front, is there?
nothing at the moment however it will only be a very pyrrhic victory possible for the russians.
Pyrrhic victory would be however better then tesults they got OTL.
The battle is still one day old. OTL, Tannenberg lasted for 4 days. A lot of things can happen in 72 hours. Even OTL, Tannenberg wasn't meant to be a decisive German victory during the first two days. ITTL, as OTL, both sides will have their share of good and bad surprises.
 

Deleted member 94680

How are the Russians performing so much better ITTL? The French I understand, the improvements are deeper and further established by commencement of hostilities. But how are the generally poor and uncoordinated staff work of the Russians butterflied away by General Michel reforming the GQG?
 
How are the Russians performing so much better ITTL? The French I understand, the improvements are deeper and further established by commencement of hostilities. But how are the generally poor and uncoordinated staff work of the Russians butterflied away by General Michel reforming the GQG?
The Russians are still plagued by many flaws, including, like you said, awful coordination and communications. The main difference is: they launched their offensive a bit later (one week later), meaning their supplies lines, while bad, are nonetheless here unlike OTL (where they basically run out of everything after 10 days). That allows Rennenkampf to advance towards Konigsberg and Allenstein. Hence his ability to reach the German Army (OTL he couldn't pursue them after Gumbinnen because of lack of supplies). That doesn't turn Samsonov into a brilliant commander: as you can see, roughly as OTL, his attacks have all end in failure and one of his corps is already routed with heavy losses. Rennenkampf isn't a great general either (although not a bad one either btw) but you don't need to be a genius like Hindenburg to pursue and attack an army.
For us, the Russians seem to perform better but, one: Gumbinnen ITTL is roughly as OTL (with heavier losses on both sides), two: the performance OTL was so bad, beyond bad even, that anything will be considered better, including a tactical defeat with a gutted army. The Russians ITTL are not performing better, they're just doing what EVERY military historian about Tannenberg have studied as the most likely possibility: Rennenkampf threatening the Eighth Army right flank. That's the result of slightly better logistics. That doesn't mean that Samsonov, Zhilinskiy or Rennen' are become military geniuses. As you can see, the communications ITTL are still pretty bad (Rennenkampf doesn't even manage to contact Zhilinskiy!).
We also have to note that Ludendorff was painfully aware that the Eighth Army was taking a huge risk, gambling everything to "divide and destroy" each russian army in Eastern Prussia. OTL, the battle of tannenberg was nearly cancelled after one day of fighting because one german plane saw Rennenkampf troops southeast of Konigsberg, thus believing that the Russian were about to attack Mackensen and Von Below. It took Hoffmann's tale (and let's admit it: pretty lie) about the supposed Rennenkampf-Samsonov rivalry to convince Hindenburg-Ludendorff that the battle had to go on.
 

Deleted member 94680

The Russians are still plagued by many flaws, including, like you said, awful coordination and communications. The main difference is: they launched their offensive a bit later (one week later), meaning their supplies lines, while bad, are nonetheless here unlike OTL (where they basically run out of everything after 10 days).

The poor supply situation wasn't just running out of stores, it was an inability to move the supplies to the troops. This isn't butterflied away by launching the attack 7 days later. It was a systematic weakness that resulted in the supply breakdown, not just advancing before stockpiles were built up (which, OTL, no-one considered to be an idea worth pursuing).

That allows Rennenkampf to advance towards Konigsberg and Allenstein. Hence his ability to reach the German Army (OTL he couldn't pursue them after Gumbinnen because of lack of supplies). That doesn't turn Samsonov into a brilliant commander: as you can see, roughly as OTL, his attacks have all end in failure and one of his corps is already routed with heavy losses. Rennenkampf isn't a great general either (although not a bad one either btw) but you don't need to be a genius like Hindenburg to pursue and attack an army.
For us, the Russians seem to perform better but, one: Gumbinnen ITTL is roughly as OTL (with heavier losses on both sides), two: the performance OTL was so bad, beyond bad even, that anything will be considered better, including a tactical defeat with a gutted army.

Agreed, but what's causing this better Russian performance? More supplies? Doesn't quite tally IMHO.

The Russians ITTL are not performing better,

Yes they are.

they're just doing what EVERY military historian about Tannenberg have studied as the most likely possibility: Rennenkampf threatening the Eighth Army right flank. That's the result of slightly better logistics.

How? OTL Rennenkampf blundered about due to poor staff work and almost non existent reconnaissance. More black bread on the soldier's plates doesn't change that. Military historians with the benefit of hindsight are not the three-ring circus that was the Stavka in 1914. Logistics doesn't make Rennenkampf coordinate his forces better or see the bigger picture more easily.

That doesn't mean that Samsonov, Zhilinskiy or Rennen' are become military geniuses. As you can see, the communications ITTL are still pretty bad (Rennenkampf doesn't even manage to contact Zhilinskiy!).

Communications so bad messages were sent en clair due to a lack of code books and training.

We also have to note that Ludendorff was painfully aware that the Eighth Army was taking a huge risk, gambling everything to "divide and destroy" each russian army in Eastern Prussia. OTL, the battle of tannenberg was nearly cancelled after one day of fighting because one german plane saw Rennenkampf troops southeast of Konigsberg, thus believing that the Russian were about to attack Mackensen and Von Below. It took Hoffmann's tale (and let's admit it: pretty lie) about the supposed Rennenkampf-Samsonov rivalry to convince Hindenburg-Ludendorff that the battle had to go on.

Ludendorff vacillated and wavered almost the whole way through the campaign. It was Hindenburg that persevered to the plan (even taking Ludendorff behind a bush at one point to 'pursuade' him of the logic of the plan, IIRC) Agreed that Hoffmann's embellishment steadied the nerves during the evening conference but the fact remains there was next to no coordination between Rennenkampf and Samsonov during the whole battle.


It's your TL and if you want a upscaled Russian performance early in the War, so be it. But without an explanation or ATL as to why suddenly the Russians in 1914 are managing what they couldn't even achieve in 1915 OTL, it just verging into hand waving IMO.
 
The poor supply situation wasn't just running out of stores, it was an inability to move the supplies to the troops. This isn't butterflied away by launching the attack 7 days later. It was a systematic weakness that resulted in the supply breakdown, not just advancing before stockpiles were built up (which, OTL, no-one considered to be an idea worth pursuing).
Indeed, you need to transport the supplies, but again, one more week means that you have the means (sorry for the bad pun here) to bring supplies to the frontline: the transport companies allocated to each divisions, corps and armies, are here ITTL. Not saying this suddenly gives an enormous flow of supplies to Rennenkampf, but this gives enough shells/food to consider the idea to deliver another battle against a retreating army. OTL, the lack of shells partially forced Rennenkampf to adopt a "less-offensive" strategy, hence his cautious/very slow advance after Gumbinnen. ITTL, he can advance a bit more quickly because his supplies lines (bigger stockpiles AND more tranport companies) allow him to do so.

How? OTL Rennenkampf blundered about due to poor staff work and almost non existent reconnaissance. More black bread on the soldier's plates doesn't change that. Military historians with the benefit of hindsight are not the three-ring circus that was the Stavka in 1914. Logistics doesn't make Rennenkampf coordinate his forces better or see the bigger picture more easily.
Communications so bad messages were sent en clair due to a lack of code books and training.
Reconnaissance was not "non existent": aerial reconnaissance was. Cavalry reconnaissance existed even if performed poorly sometimes (notably by the Cossack regiments). But Rennenkampf has 5,5 Cavalry Divisions (including only 6 Cossack Regiments). That gives him enough troops to discover that the field in front of him is "empty", without Germans (and I'm not saying "following/finding the Germans", just discovering that there is no one): no need to be a great general to find a logical conclusion. But that doesn't mean that the Russians know exactly where the Germans are. That only means that Rennenkampf knows that the Germans have retreated westwards. And, as you can see: the Germans know exactly where are the Russians meaning their left flank isn't surprised and can establish defensive positions. And of course the messages sent "en clair" are still there, and there will be eventually consequences.

Ludendorff vacillated and wavered almost the whole way through the campaign. It was Hindenburg that persevered to the plan (even taking Ludendorff behind a bush at one point to 'pursuade' him of the logic of the plan, IIRC) Agreed that Hoffmann's embellishment steadied the nerves during the evening conference but the fact remains there was next to no coordination between Rennenkampf and Samsonov during the whole battle.

It's your TL and if you want a upscaled Russian performance early in the War, so be it. But without an explanation or ATL as to why suddenly the Russians in 1914 are managing what they couldn't even achieve in 1915 OTL, it just verging into hand waving IMO.

I know that Hindenburg's calm contributed to the pursue of the offensive OTL. ITTL, this same calm and this ability to see the advantages and problems of each situation have convinced him that he could take a calculated risk. In fact, I even took some sentences he said OTL ("half-measures" for example) to show that we have the same talented, stoic general.
And there is nothing here which shows a coordination between Rennenkampf and Samsonov: Rennenkampf is aware of the possible situation, Samsononv isn't yet and the communications between Rennenkampf/Samsononv/Zhilinskiy are still awful. In fact, the communications were better between the Stavka and Rennenkampf that between Rennenkampf and his superior Zhilinskiy! This aspect has not been forgotten ITTL and will be present in the future updates. Here, we just saw the first 24 hours of the battle.
And don't worry, the Russian performance is not going to be stellar, far, very very far from it. I just want to show the possible effects of a possibility which has been studied for a long time, but without forgetting the flawed Russian strategy and everything.
 
Imperial Apocalypse: The Great War and the Destruction of the Russian Empire by J.A. Sanborn is a good book regarding the performance and endemic problems of the Imperial Russian Army.
 
1st September. Tannenberg
1st September 1914. Tannenberg. Eastern Prussia

At dawn, 28 heavy artillery batteries belonging to the German I Corps pounds down the positions held by the Russian I Corps near Usdau. Soon after, the German Infantry seizes the town. The defeated Russian units retreat towards Soldau but one Russian brigade counter-attacks in the afternoon and manages to stop the German advance for the rest of the day.

Near Tannenberg, the Russian XXIII and XV Corps continue to strongly attack the reinforced German XX Corps. The German formation however, with the assistance of the 3rd and 33rd Reserve Divisions, repulses every assault. The Russian Infantry in the area begins to suffer serious losses. At Allenstein, the situation is roughly the same: the Russian Infantry of the XIII Corps, in spite of his tenacity, is forced to fall back after several failed assaults.

At Bischofstein, the situation remains rather calm until noon, and is limited to clashes between Russian cavalry and entrenched German infantry during the morning. At 1 PM, the Russian artillery is ready for action and opens fire, marking the beginning of the true battle. The Russian II and III Corps concentrate their efforts against the German XVII Corps while the Russian IV Corps attacks the German I Reserve Corps. The fight is fierce but the well-organized German defence holds on in spite of rising casualties. Shortly before dusk, elements of the Russian 1st and 2nd Guard Cavalry Divisions, so far protecting the right wing of the IV Corps, manages to infiltrate the German left flank, launching several small and disordered cavalry charges against positions held by German reservists. The charges, thanks to an astute combination of artillery and machinegun fire, are repulsed with heavy losses (the Russian Chevalier Guard Regiment is practically annihilated). But by diverting resources to deal with this new threat, Von Below has weakened his own centre and the I Reserve Corps is forced to slightly fall back after a third determined Russian assault. As a result, the XVII Corps retreats as well to maintain a coherent frontline.

In the evening, Hindenburg is relatively satisfied: in the west, the I Russian Corps is retreating and General François is convinced that another assault will destroy the Russian formation, thus allowing the Germans to outflank the Russian XXIII and XV Corps. Near Tannenberg, the Germans have held the line, inflicting grim casualties to the Russians in the process. In the East, in spite of some minor setbacks, Mackensen is keeping the Russians at bay. Hindenburg and Hoffmann are now certain that they only need 48 hours to “neutralize” the Russian Second Army as a fighting force.

Meanwhile, the Stavka, established at Baranavitchy (western Belarus), is contacted by Rennenkampf which still tries to reach Zhilinskiy or Samsonov. Grand Duke Nikolai then realizes the scale of the potential peril which could engulf Samsonov’s forces and reaches General Zhilinskiy, asking for information. Zhilinskiy himself admits that he is aware of a battle between Samsonov and the German Eighth Army but ignores the exact situation so far. Furthermore, the communications between Warsaw and the Russian Second Army are often disrupted, hence information being fragmented at best. As a result, a frustrated Nikolai contacts Rennenkampf again and orders him “to break the German left flank by any means necessary” while both the Stavka and Zhilinskiy unsuccessfully try to reach Samsonov. Late in the night, those messages are intercepted by German cryptographers

Samsonov himself, who has spent most of the day on the top of a hill to observe the action, hasn’t received the reports of his corps commanders. It’s only in the evening that he realizes that his left flank is dangerously exposed. However, the Russian general still believes he can break through the thin German centre and thus decides to concentrate his forces against the German XX Corps. As for the I Corps, it is ordered to halt all offensive action and to hold Soldau at all cost.

During the night, numerous elements of the routed VI Corps are found in the woods near Oltersburg. The formation itself is not combatworthy anymore, at least for the time being, and has been effectively reduced to an exhausted reinforced division. Its commander, General Glabovjeschtschenski, is missing and presumed dead or captured. As a result, Samsonov decides to keep the battered unit as a reserve for at least 24 hours.
 
Kind of funny that "better Russian performance" is still an army that seems to be losing.

Technically, it is possible to both loose and win at the same time - loose the engagement on tactical scale, but "win" on operational scale by pinning the opposing force, denying it the ability to disengage / rest / resupply / maneuver / reposition / act somewhere else.

WW2 Eastern Front was a good example when the Germans were getting rolled up, contrary to popular opinion the Russians were outplaying the Germans on operational scale with gusto.
 
2nd September
2nd September 1914. Tannenberg. Eastern Prussia.

After having intercepted the Russian messages, Generals Hindenburg and Ludendorff realize that their left flank, while still solid, is about to face a great deal of pressure. And if General von Mackensen assures his superiors that the I Reserve and XVII Corps will keep the enemy at bay for at least 36 hours, Hindenburg is now aware that his left flank is unable to flank Samsonov and to trap the Second Army inside a small pocket. As a result, the German IX Reserve Corps, currently defending Allenstein, receives the vital mission to destroy or definitively repulse the Russian XIII Corps in order to flank the Russian XXIII and XV Corps around Tannenberg.

Early in the morning, the battle starts again. General François attacks Soldau but faces a spirited resistance. Moreover, during the fight, the Germans discover that the Russian I Corps has been reinforced with fresh Guard Regiments. Indeed, Zhilinskiy, following Nikolai’s instructions, has sent several units belonging to the Guard Corps (currently at Warsaw) to Mlava (roughly 20 kilometres southeast of Soldau) by train during the night. Consequently, two Guards Regiments, forming a temporary brigade, had met elements of the I Corps (mainly support units) and were guided towards the battlefield. As the hours go by, fresh battalions come to reinforce or relieve several battered units and in spite of General François’s best efforts, Soldau remains Russian.

However, further east, the situation definitively favours the Germans. The Russian XXIII and XV Corps, commanded by Samsonov himself, fail to break though the German lines. The exhausted and outnumbered German XX Corps, despite a small retreat during the afternoon, is never defeated and holds its ground.

As for the German IX Reserve Corps (General von Boehn), supported by the 33rd Reserve Division on his left and the 3rd Reserve Division on his right, it launches a bold and vigorous counter-attack which steadily pushes back the Russian XIII Corps. During the afternoon, the Germans retake Passensheim (15 kilometres south of Allenstein), thus outflanking the Russian formation and partially encircling it. However, in Von Boehn’s own words, it will take at least “one day to digest the Russian Corps”.

Around Bischofstein, Rennenkampf opts for a series limited attacks along the entire line to progressively exhaust and repulse Mackensen while his cavalry continues to infiltrate the German flanks. The fight is particularly fierce as both sides know what is at stake. German losses begin to become serious and the pressure around Bischofstein is such that Mackensen decides to evacuate the village in order to establish a more compact defensive line between the Alle River and the lakes surrounding Seeburg.

At dusk, Samsonov, receiving fragmented but important reports, studies his options. His left holds still but his right, with the rout and the partial encirclement of the XIII Corps, is on the verge of collapse. This could lead to the encirclement of the XV and XXIII Corps, thus utterly gutting the Second Army as a fighting force. Furthermore, most of the units have suffered heavy losses, if not crippling ones, and are exhausted. For the Russian general and his subordinates, it appears that the battle is lost. Even the news of Rennenkampf facing Mackensen’s forces in the East (a news which reached Samsonov late in the afternoon) don’t convince them otherwise. In fact, Samsonov sees this as an opportunity to fall back without much risk.

At 11 PM, the Second Army begins its retreat: the XXIII and XV Corps leave their positions and march towards Ortelsburg and Mlava while the I Corps protects their left flank by holding Soldau during the night before leaving the city. At Mlava, in Russian territory, Samsonov manages to contact Zhilinskiy, informing him about the situation. Consequently, Zhilinskiy tries to reach both Rennenkampf and the Stavka during the night

As for the XIII Corps, cavalry units are sent to warn the formation: if possible, the unit must conduct a fighting withdrawal towards Ortelsburg. Unfortunately, the news don’t reach General Klujev -commander of the Corps- until dawn.

2nd September 1914. Longwy. Eastern France

After seven days of intense fighting, the French garrison of Longwy surrenders to the German V Reserve Corps commanded by General von Gündell. In spite of outdated fortifications and with only 46 old field guns using black powder at their disposal, the French soldiers have opposed a stubborn resistance, repulsing several infantry assaults during the siege. Again, the use of LMGs at short range have caused serious casualties to the German attacking units.

To honour his valiant defence, General von Gündell authorizes Colonel Darche, commander of the fortress, to keep his personal weapons. Around 1000 French soldiers were killed and 3000 captured (including 1000 wounded which are sent to German field hospitals). Colonel Darche would later meet the Konprinz himself.

Tannenberg 2.jpg

Blue circle: Position of the Russian XIII Corps
Blue arrows: Retreat of the Russian I, XXIII, XV and VI Corps.
In purple: New defensive line established by the Russian Second Army.

Colonel Darche.jpg

Colonel Natalis Constant Darche. Commanding 4000 French soldiers against the 45000 strong V Reserve Corps, he held the fortress of Longwy for 7 days after the retreat of the Fourth Army. Made Officer of the Legion of Honour for his gallantry.
 
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What? The propellant is black powder?
Yep, OTL, the guns of the fortress weren't replaced or modernized and were often 40 years old. ITTL, with money being used to modernize the Army, the fortress is as obsolete as OTL. Note that many fortresses were intended to be dismantled OTL when the war broke out as they were considered too costly.
 

longsword14

Banned
Yep, OTL, the guns of the fortress weren't replaced or modernized and were often 40 years old. ITTL, with money being used to modernize the Army, the fortress is as obsolete as OTL. Note that many fortresses were intended to be dismantled OTL when the war broke out as they were considered too costly.
What kind of shells they have? If they are facing troops with some kind of shelter then there blast will not work as well.
 
What kind of shells they have? If they are facing troops with some kind of shelter then there blast will not work as well.
Mostly classical shells with shrapnels. Enough to destroy a house. Not enough to destroy a thick wall or a cellar. OTL, the artillery of Longwy wasn't protected: no bunkers for field guns etc, so they were vulnerable to counter-battery fire (plus the German artillery had a longer range). ITTL it has not changed and the French artillery at Longwy isn't very useful to keep the Germans at bay. The difference between OTL and ITTL is that when the Germans penetrated in the fortress, they are repulsed with heavier losses thanks to heavier infantry firepower (LMGs mostly, the fortress doesn't have many HMGs are the Infantry Divisions are a priority when it comes to equip them with the most modern weapons).
 
3rd September 1914
3rd September. Tannenberg. Eastern Prussia

At dawn, an intense artillery preparation reduces Soldau’s outskirts to dust. The German I Corps advances and seizes the city without meeting any opposition. Aerial reconnaissance shows that the area between Soldau and Passenheim is empty. Cossack patrols lend several ambushes in the woods and along the roads but the fighting remains limited and casualties very low. During their cautious advance, German infantrymen discover that large portions of the dense Eastern Prussia railway system have been methodically destroyed. In the afternoon, and after several other reconnaissance reports, the situation is abundantly clear: the Russians have conceded the defeat and retreated along the German-Russian border.

Further East, not far from Allenstein, the scealing of the pocket is completed. The Russian XIII Corps is totally encircled and only 6000-7000 men have managed to escape, forming ad-hoc units trying to reach Samsonov’s forces.

Around Seeburg, Mackensen’s troops are waiting for another assault. Hours go by and nothing happens. Indeed Rennenkampf has been informed by the Stavka that Samsonov has fallen back. If Rennenkampf pursues his offensive, he would risk to face the entire German Eighth Army. Hence his decision to retreat as well and to establish a solid defensive line, using the Masurian lakes to guard his left flank.

The Stavka hasn’t remained idle either. Orders have been sent to various Corps commanders: The Guard Corps at Warsaw will reinforce the battered Second Army. The Tenth Army (XXII and II Siberian Corps), currently concentrating around Osovets (North of Bialystok) will be deployed in Eastern Prussia to protect Rennenkampf’s right flank east of Konigsberg.

The battle of Tannenberg is over. At dusk, after reading intercepted messages, Hindenburg and Ludendorff realize that the Russians are in full retreat. The road towards Konigsberg is open and the city can be relieved within 48 hours. While no one can dispute the fact that the Germans have won a brilliant if not decisive victory, Hindenburg is aware that the two Russian Armies, while (severely) battered, still exist as combat formations. After roughly 4 days of intense fighting, losses are heavy on both sides. The Germans have lost 30 000 men, including 10 000 dead and missing; the Russians nearly 90 000, with at least 50 000 dead and missing, the latter figure including the trapped Russian XIII Corps.

3rd September. Upper Alsace

After an entire day of furious fighting, the French Sixth Army manages to take Ensisheim, north of Mulhouse. German resistance is becoming heavier and heavier as the Bavarian and 19th Ersatz Divisions, reinforced with the I Bavarian Reserve Corps, have finally arrived to assist the German Seventh Army. With now five Infantry Divisions and a relatively abundant artillery, General von Heeringen is able to stabilize the frontline and to halt the retreat. The French troops are exhausted after an entire week of marching and fighting, sometimes lacking even shells for their locally superior artillery. Aware of the state of his men and the growing strength of his enemy, General Paul Pau orders a “pause” of 48 hours to consolidate his gains. In spite of the strategical importance of Upper Alsace for both sides, losses are relatively light: the Germans have lost 16 000 men, including 4000 dead and 3000 captured, the French 3000 killed and 10000 wounded.

3rd September. Around Longwy. Eastern France

In the area, the battle finally comes to an end. After the seizure of Briey, the German Fifth Army had launched several bold and rapid attacks and flanking manoeuvers, notably taking Landres and Conflans in the process. But while the Germans were progressing, their offensive began to lose steam. Furthermore, their operational success was nonetheless costly, with several formations having lost a third or a half of their fighting capacity. As a result, a poorly planned attack against Marville had failed with very heavy casualties. Further South, around Etain, the situation was no different.

In spite of serious losses and a constant retreat, General Langle de Cary has managed to preserve the bulk of his army. With now 14 Infantry Divisions at his disposal, he is able to establish a solid defensive line east of the ridges dominating the River Meuse. At dusk, after a brief meeting, the Duke of Wurttemberg and the Konprinz of Prussia agree that they lack the men to definitively pierce the French line for the moment. The Offensive is temporarily halted and the troops ordered to dig in. Roughly 110 000 German and French soldiers have been killed, wounded or captured during the seven days of fighting.

east-prusia1.jpg

In red: Positions of the German Corps and Divisions.
In crimson: German fortifications protecting Konigsberg.
Blue circle: trapped Russian XIII Corps.
In green: Line held by the Russian Second army after its retreat.
In purple: Retreat planned by Rennenkampf and already underway. Please note that Rennenkampf's troops often scuttle the railway lines during their retreat.

upload_2017-5-25_11-7-10.png

In blue: frontline on 3 September (the evening).

upload_2017-5-25_11-8-55.png

In blue: frontline on 30 August.
Red arrows: German main attacks.
In purple: frontline on 3 September (the evening).
 
And now, the trenches.
The French seem to be doing a lot better defensively than OTL, and seem to have pretty good coordination
of artillery. The plan they're following also seems to be more flexible than OTL and its own OTL counterpart.
Perhaps they'll be more methodical in looking for ways to regain the initiative and develop offensive tactics
and not overlook suggestions from their own officers.
 

sodan

Donor
Can you make a map of the front of alsace and moselle ?
Because i can't see the situation with the 2 front.
 
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