The Unwanted Clairvoyant. A different French strategy in WW1

[jeandebueil]

19th December. 2:20 AM. The Courbet.

Admiral Lapeyrère is informed that the combined British-French force has managed to sink two Austrian heavy ships while having taken heavy losses in the process. The rest of the KUK battleships has retreated and its specific location in this dark night is still unknown in spite of a reconnaissance division sent by RA Troubridge, temporary commander of the British Mediterranean Fleet after the now confirmed death of Admiral Milne.

Lapeyrère knows that the obscurity will last for at least 5 hours in these nights preceding the winter solstice, five hours which can probably save the KUK Battle Fleet by either enabling them to increase the distance between the two fleets or to reach Sebenico before sailing for Pula. Lastly, the use of the seaplanes has been relatively successful but also extremely costly: so far, the Foudre has only recovered two aircraft while one has been destroyed and the others are still missing.

However, it seems that the battle hasn’t been entirely fruitless, with the KUK Kriegsmarine having lost around a third of its destroyer and cruiser forces during the night with likely heavy losses (and 200 sailors and officers captured). From now on, Lapeyrère opts for a temporary northern course and rendezvous point Troubridge. If at dawn, no Austrian ship is spotted, then the Fleet will retreat towards Cattaro before leaving the Adriatic Sea. Until then, and in order to avoid any collision, lights are on once again while searchlights will be used to observe the immediate approaches of the squadron as a safety measure. In spite of these, Admiral Lapeyrère doesn’t really believe that Austrian vessels are near him by now.

19th December. 2:30 AM. The SMS Helgoland

Ten minutes earlier, the Helgoland’s captain has been informed that the silhouettes of four battleships have been spotted, with all their lights on and their searchlights examining the obscurity, around 6000 metres from him. The Austrian officer realizes that he’s facing French dreadnoughts and that he has absolutely no mean to threaten them.

Indeed, even if the SMS Helgoland the SMS Csepel have two spare torpedoes each, they haven’t reload their tubes as doing it in open sea, during a night with all lights off, could be a potentially lethal task. And since obscurity is now the only card the two ships can use, lights won’t be use to reload the tubes. Anyway, even if he chose to do so, this would take time while potentially revealing his position. The Austrian captain now understands that sailing east was a mistake. While it allowed him to easily escape during his encounter with the armoured cruisers, it also prevented him to directly join the other Austrian ships and ultimately Haus.

Consequently, the two ships are now heading north at a speed of 24 knots (which should increase the distance between them and the dreadnoughts while preserving the boilers if needed).

Now the Austrian captain can only hope that the good fortune which has served him so well will last for another couple of hours.

 

[steamboy]

So it seems to be drawing down, the AH ships are disengaging but they can still blunter into one another. And Haus' force still seems to be heading East, which is right towards the main body of the French fleet. At 6000 meters that's going to be murder on both sides if they get into a gunfight.

 

[jeandebueil]

So it seems to be drawing down, the AH ships are disengaging but they can still blunter into one another. And Haus' force still seems to be heading East, which is right towards the main body of the French fleet. At 6000 meters that's going to be murder on both sides if they get into a gunfight.

Haus is already heading north while Lapeyrère is still far behind him and Troubridge actually more trying to join Lapeyrère than pursuing the KUK Battle Fleet with his northeast course.

 

[steamboy]

Ahh cheers for clearing that up

 

[Scherzo]

So, was this a more decisive engagement than Jutland or just as frustratingly inconclusive?

 

[DracoLazarus]

So, was this a more decisive engagement than Jutland or just as frustratingly inconclusive?

Well, the losses are pretty much balanced from what I've understood at this point. What is significant is that Austria, unlike Germany, cannot replace its losses, and in addition its relative losses are way higher.
It is significant in that it makes Italy smell the blood in the water and incites it to pounce at Austria.

 

[Magyarország]

Well, the losses are pretty much balanced from what I've understood at this point. What is significant is that Austria, unlike Germany, cannot replace its losses, and in addition its relative losses are way higher.
It is significant in that it makes Italy smell the blood in the water and incites it to pounce at Austria.

... which means Italians will soon fruitlessly throw themselves at the Alps and Isonzo?

 

[StephenColbert27]

Just got caught up. Great stuff! Got my vote for a Turtledove.

 

[DracoLazarus]

... which means Italians will soon fruitlessly throw themselves at the Alps and Isonzo?

Probably. Or just send men at the Dalmatian shores (which I'd do if I were them).

 

[Antony444]

Another interesting effect of this engagement is that for the first time, the Royal Navy's battlecruisers have been hammered by a force of enemy battleships.
I think by that time OTL, they were still proved a viable concept, but there the Indefatigable has been wrecked. It's probably too late to change anything right now, battlecruisers must have their own supporters but some Admirals are going to note that engage dreadnoughts versus battlecruisers is not something going to end well...

 

[jeandebueil]

Well, the losses are pretty much balanced from what I've understood at this point. What is significant is that Austria, unlike Germany, cannot replace its losses, and in addition its relative losses are way higher.
It is significant in that it makes Italy smell the blood in the water and incites it to pounce at Austria.

... which means Italians will soon fruitlessly throw themselves at the Alps and Isonzo?

Pouncing on someone or a country can mean a lot of things: war is one of them but not the only one. Salandra and Sonnino, like OTL, remain cautious dudes and want the best deal they can get, and now they can be more pro-Entente but they're running the casino while the Entente and the CPs are playing at the casino's table. And a casino may have feelings and preferences, but will ultimately opts for the one who has bucks to offer him, not the one he prefers.
So far, Austrian losses in terms of ships and men are significantly heavier than the Entente ones which can, on a tactical pov, say to the press and the public opinion that it was a victory. On a strategic pov? Even if the KUK KM had to retreat, the Entente has no harbour in the Adriatic to exploit the victory. For this you need either Cattaro (but with far more ressources than planned) or Brindisi/Bari (for this you need Italy). So you still have to wait and see.

Probably. Or just send men at the Dalmatian shores (which I'd do if I were them).

Draco, you're a man of common sense. The Italian CoS is Cadorna... Last time I've checked, Cadorna wasn't really a synomy of "common sense".

Another interesting effect of this engagement is that for the first time, the Royal Navy's battlecruisers have been hammered by a force of enemy battleships.
I think by that time OTL, they were still proved a viable concept, but there the Indefatigable has been wrecked. It's probably too late to change anything right now, battlecruisers must have their own supporters but some Admirals are going to note that engage dreadnoughts versus battlecruisers is not something going to end well...

"The British BBs have been hammered because the artillery duel occured at a distance of barely 9000 metres" would argue Fisher. "At 9000 metres, even a BB would have suffered". Fisher was the BC's most vocal defender and so far, there is no reason to remove Fisher...
But yes, some commanders, like Troubridge (who actually saw the Indefatigable being damaged and a freaking admiral being killed in the process) would recommand caution about the use of BCs.

 

[Driftless]

So far, Austrian losses in terms of ships and men are significantly heavier than the Entente ones which can, on a tactical pov, say to the press and the public opinion that it was a victory. On a strategic pov? Even if the KUK KM had to retreat, the Entente has no harbour in the Adriatic to exploit the victory. For this you need either Cattaro (but with far more ressources than planned) or Brindisi/Bari (for this you need Italy). So you still have to wait and see.

If there are no further losses in this foray, the KuK is in a worse state than before the battle - with little opportunity to improve their capital ship status. Still, the surviving ships (to this point...) are a potent enough fleet-in-being force that will require the Allies to keep some heavy forces near the Adriatic. So,.... tactical Allied victory - strategic stalemate?

As you point out, where do the Allies base their force, if they need to keep the KuK bottled up in the Adriatic? Of course, maybe one alternative for the French & British is a rotation of submarine patrols with an irregular visit by the larger fleet. A negotiation point between the Italians and the French/British: if the Italian's want to remain out of the fight, but want the pressure kept up on the Kuk, would they allow some basing arrangement at Italian ports? Italy wouldn't strictly be neutral then, but their war cost would be limited.

 

[steamboy]

The thing with Milne being killed, its no great loss, he wasn't a very good Admiral and really owed his position to being put their by Churchill when really somewhere AWAY from anywhere important would have been a far better choice. The man had zero initative.

 

[jeandebueil]

If there are no further losses in this foray, the KuK is in a worse state than before the battle - with little opportunity to improve their capital ship status. Still, the surviving ships (to this point...) are a potent enough fleet-in-being force that will require the Allies to keep some heavy forces near the Adriatic. So,.... tactical Allied victory - strategic stalemate?

As you point out, where do the Allies base their force, if they need to keep the KuK bottled up in the Adriatic? Of course, maybe one alternative for the French & British is a rotation of submarine patrols with an irregular visit by the larger fleet. A negotiation point between the Italians and the French/British: if the Italian's want to remain out of the fight, but want the pressure kept up on the Kuk, would they allow some basing arrangement at Italian ports? Italy wouldn't strictly be neutral then, but their war cost would be limited.

Agree with you for the first paragraph.

About the second one and the Italians. Italy is neutral since it considers that its alliance with the CPs is perceived as a defensive one. As a neutral country, Italy can allow to any foreign warship to remain in its non-military harbours for 24 hours (mostly for coaling or food) but nothing more. Legally speaking, Italy could allow the entire Franco-British Fleet to coal at Bari for one day (and could allow to KUK ships to do the same). Beyond 24 hours, the warship must go or face internment. If Italy allows the Entente to use one of its harbours as a naval base, it becomes de facto and de jure a military partner of the Entente while being officially an ally of the CPs.
To allow a foreign navy to use its naval bases is one the obvious signs of a military alliance and often one of its official clauses. So diplomacy won't allow this or the CPs will see as a sign of an imminent war while screaming bloody murder about the "treacherous Italians" who openly don't give a damn about international laws. Italy's reputation would be stained for decades when it comes to sign treaties.

The thing with Milne being killed, its no great loss, he wasn't a very good Admiral and really owed his position to being put their by Churchill when really somewhere AWAY from anywhere important would have been a far better choice. The man had zero initative.

He wasn't totally incompetent either and OTL showed a real desire to cooperate with Lapeyrère (poor communications prevented this intention to become a reality). And zero initiative during a battle is slightly better than a foolhardy man. He was an average commander at the end of his career, likely less capable than others (Craddock and Jellicoe to begin with).
But an admiral who dies during a naval battle which is turning into a tactical victory becomes an officially untouchable figure: expect a British press writing nice articles about him.

 

[Lawnchair Captain]

One thing that might change in respect to otl is that now the RN has experienced the chaos and confusion of a night battle involving heavy units like battlecruisers. I wonder what will the Admiralty and Jellicoe (is he in charge of the Grand Fleet right?) do of Troubridge's report. It might well be that we see some improvement in the training for night battle amongst the RN ships. Specially considering how serious Jellicoe was about drilling and training his ships.

 

[jeandebueil]

Just a brief post to say that I won't have internet until tuesday so I won't be able to answer to a possible post until then. Otherwise, have a nice week-end!

 

[jeandebueil]

19th December. 2:40 AM. The HMS Black Prince

Still on board of his personal flagship following the large silhouette of the Inflexible, RA Troubridge is informed that a formation of very large ships, east of his position, seems to sail right towards him, equipped with searchlights and apparently not trying to remain in the darkness. Ten minutes later, the French liaison officer confirms him that those ships belong to the First Squadron of the Line, commanded by VA Dartigue du Fournet and with Admiral Lapeyrère himself on board.

Troubridge immediately sends light signals to the formation, now around 7000 metres to his position, identifying himself and indicating his exact coordinates while his own force progressively reduces its speed before the likely meeting. Wireless communications are also used as a precaution.​

19th December. 3:00 AM. The Courbet

Admiral Lapeyrère is informed of the presence of the British Mediterranean Fleet north of his position and answers to the message sent to him both by radio and light signals (the latter having been received a bit sooner than the former). Coordinates are sent where the two fleet will join their forces. Speed is reduced to 16 knots for the moment.

19th December. 3:00 AM. The SMS Helgoland

The captain of the light cruiser as well as his men are becoming more and more nervous. Ten minutes earlier, a large formation barely 4000 metres north of their position has sent light signals in their direction, lights signals which were definitely not the ones used by the KUK Kriegsmarine.

For a minute, the crews of the SMS Helgoland and Csepel believed they had been discovered and that the enemy formation would try to illuminate them before opening fire. The SMS Helgoland still had 2 533mm torpedoes loaded in their tubes and ready to fire but after that, the firepower of the unknown formation would likely destroy them within minutes.

But in the following minutes, nothing happened: no searchlight or even another light signal. The two ships were already changing their course to avoid their enemy when the light cruiser’s captain was informed that light signals southeast of his position had suddenly appeared, along with searchlights: it was the four battleships encountered 30 minutes earlier. From now on, the Austrian officer understood his new situation: his two ships were between two formations trying to join their forces. In a matter of minutes, the distance between him and one of these two forces would be reduced to the point he would be spotted. In which case the Austrian destroyer and light cruiser would be smashed like an egg between an anvil and a hammer.

The only chance the two ships had was to sail eastwards at full speed, hoping they could escape this trap before it’s too late, and reaching Dubrovnik. Forcing its boilers, the SMS Helgoland rapidly reached 28 knots, with the SMS Csepel not far behind. Now luck was the essence and many sailors on board began to pray in various languages.

19th December. 3:10 AM. The Courbet

Both Admiral Lapeyère and VA Dartigue du Fournet are informed that two ships north of their position and currently sailing eastwards have been spotted, less than 2500 metres ahead. The two officers and their staff believe it’s likely a British light cruiser escorted by a French or British destroyer, and meant to watch Troubridge’s right flank.

However, the French naval officers are concerned that a collision might happen and the speed is again reduced to 14 knots while light signals are sent to the two ships to change their course. No answer is received and the warning is repeated, but to no avail. At this moment, a young lieutenant informs the bridge that the two ships are sailing at an extremely fast speed. Becoming more and more suspicious as the minutes go by, Lapeyrère orders to the forward turrets to be ready to fire while the ships progressively increase their speed and change their course. At 3:17 AM, the searchlights, so far shut down after Troubridge’s messages, are on once again.

19th December. 3:19 AM. The SMS Csepel

Both the captain and the crew of the Austrian destroyer have seen the searchlights looking for them in the darkness with a growing anguish. If they’re spotted, one hit from those dreadnoughts would be enough to pulverize the vessel. This time, the captain decides to take a risk he wasn’t willing to accept so far: he ordered to reload two of his torpedo tubes. But the task, in a near total obscurity will take time. Preparations are being made nonetheless.

But at 3:21, a powerful ray of light illuminates the destroyer, or at least its silhouette. Several others join the first ray. Every sailor stopped to move and, for several seconds which seemed to be hours, nothing happened. Until enormous flames quickly followed by a tremendous roar tore the silent night apart.

 

[RyderWest]

...and Helgoland and Csepel are done for.

 

[nbcman]

...and Helgoland and Csepel are done for.

But will they get any hits from their torpedoes in the process?

 

[Oldbill]

The secondaries are by far the more dangerous of the armaments on the BB's. Training the turrets took time, and a fast maneuvering ship in the dark is hard to hit, even with searchlights. Smaller guns move faster, and can actually track a target. That's why BB's carried the smaller guns, to kill DD and TB.