I believed they still practice Shinto? I know there are some Japonese Christians, but I thought the great majority of Japanese where either non-practicant but nominally Shinto.
"western", in the sense of China and Korea that are West of Japan that brought Buddhism into the islands, in different waves
 
"western", in the sense of China and Korea that are West of Japan that brought Buddhism into the islands, in different waves

Ah, I see. I misunderstood your post because "western" is often used when talking about Europe. The posibility of you talking about Japan's literal western neighbours didn't cross my mind.
 
Chapter 1.9: Nobody expects the Tawantinsuyu resistance
Chapter 9: Nobody expects the Tawantinsuyu resistance
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spanish_galleon.jpg

Andagoya departs

Andagoya, with the backing of canon from his ships managed to defeat the forts around Tumbez, despite the relatively modernized defenses they had. The casualties he took, 45 men[1], seem low but amounted to 9% of his men and to conquistadors used to killing hundreds without loosing a man it seemed a large loss. Still the Spanish held Tumbez, some of the most modern fortifications in the Tawantinsuyu Empire and their ships controlled the waves. The news that Pizzaro had failed was shocking to the Spanish, but they remained optimistic that they would easily sweep aside the "savages" in good order, being more concerned about the whereabouts of Alvarado. Here they made an error, rather then pressing their victory they waited in Tumbez, trying to get their bearings. On paper this seemed a good idea, but it gave time for the Tawantinsuyu to organize and decide how to divide their forces.

The Tawantinsuyu certainly needed time, with two invaders occupying important areas of the Empire. Alvarado was contained, bottled up under a light siege in Quito, while Andagoya and Belalcázar were uncontained along the coast. Andagoya and Belalcázar were probably the biggest threats directly to the empire, but Alvarado raised the possibility of renewed war against subjugated peoples in the north. In addition the army was northern, especially Quitian, to abandon Quito raised the threat of losing the pillar that had supported Atahualpa's rule through thick and thin. The Empire found itself in a bind.

In the end the Inka decided to divide his forces, relying on his large numerical advantage to defeat the Spanish, a rather risky preposition given the limited scope of technology the Tawantinsuyu had. Atahualpa and Rumiñavi would march north with the largest part of the army to crush the Spanish in Quito as quickly as possible and subjugate any northern rebels that emerged. Quisquis would strike at the Spanish in Tumbez. Quisquis's goal was containment, he was to figure out what the Andagoya were doing and keep them from doing it long enough for Alvarado[2] to be crushed. Ukumari was to maintain control over the Cusco area, as well as provide last ditch defense if Andagoya reached the mountains. The recently conquered south was left with only small garrisons aside from well fortified areas with iron, which the Tawantinsuyu were desperately trying to discover how to smelt.

As Atahualpa marched north Quiquis's costal campaign began as the general raced to defeat the dithering Spanish. However his advances were rebuffed by the well organized forces of Belalcázar and fell back, obeying his orders to hold rather then reconquer.

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The Spanish Advance

The Battle of Tangarara saw the Spanish advance once more and Quisquis try and hold his ground and push them back. The Spanish inadvertently chose a decent position outside the town and used their superior range to hit the Tawantinsuyu from afar and counterattack the counterattack. Quisquis narrowly avoided a rout but would now consistently be on the defensive. Belalcázar and Andagoya pushed southward as Quisquis tried to slow their advance. It was the first truly long term war between the Tawantinsuyu and the Spanish, Andagoya was no fool and avoided risking everything spreading his men out to plunder to avoid wasting men to an occupation. Quisquis had the numbers but most of the captured Spanish material had been sent north to Quito with the Sapa Inka, leaving the general gravely outgunned. The war reduced to raiding at the enemy, leaving the local population stuck in the middle. The plauges of the old world struck once more as starvation hurt the defenses of locals. By March of 1537 things were grinding to a halt more then ever.

Though Belalcázar wanted to smash Quisquis Andagoya hesitated. His men were among the best Spaniards in Panama and they no longer cockily expected for the natives to bow down before them. They had better guns and a better idea of how to use them, and a few native allies. However the natives were very few and tended to switch sides more often then not. This left Andagoya with only Spaniards truly loyal to him, and he had a very limited number of them and he wasn't going to risk them all in one blow.

The Retaking of Quito changed that. On March 23 Atahualpa's forces retook Quito and slaughtered the Spanish there. Despite heavy losses the army turned around soon after and headed south, determined to crush the other invader as quickly as possible.

Under pressure from Belalcázar Andagoya prepared for a mad dash into the mountains aimed at either taking Cusco or the Emperor in a desperate attempt to avoid being crushed. He rallied all the Spanish he had and all the allies he could and began his climb along the Pohechos Tallana River. He managed to defeat the weakened guards at the bottom and lost as few men as could be expected as he climbed the mountains towards the heartland. However his efforts were stalled as he reached the city of Paltas. The garrison there stayed stronger then expected and by the time he looked to have broken through he ended up retreating. The large army was coming south, and Quisquis might soon try to block and retreat he had. His allies were deserting him, far from their homes. Andagoya was in a bind, he had reached a high water mark. So with great regret, and Belalcázar's fury, he turned his men around and headed back down the passed.

Andagoya narrowly beat Quisquis to the mouth of the Pohechos Tallana and raced north towards Tumbez. Soon the forward parts Atahualpa's army had joined the chase. However Andagoya had a much smaller and more mobile force and, crucially, was not being hampered by the first throes of influenza. Andagoya was forced to abandon some cannon and supplies, though he burned what he could.

Andagoya arrived in Tumbez barely ahead of Atahualpa and would describe waiting for his ships to be ready leave as one of the worst experiences of his life. He brought aboard as many valuables as he could, a few native allies and a few more unwilling captives.

Andagoya would manage to slip out of Atahualpa's noose by just days and bring news north of the empire that had bested Spain's great conquistadors.

______


1: Only 34 were killed, but the rest were injured so badly they could not even fight on a horse.
2: Of course, they were using terms like "northern Spanish", not the actual names of the leaders. But its easier to keep track of.
 
So the Spanish finally had someone sane around who realized "oh, holy shit, we are outnumbered badly and they are trying to cancel out our tech advantage" and skilled enough to do decent damage to the inca while still getting out with sizable amounts of men who now understand this new enemy. I kind of hope he does well after his retreat, after several "ha, they are just savages, wait what's happening?" types, someone who sees the inca as a worthy foe would be interesting.
 
So the Spanish finally had someone sane around who realized "oh, holy shit, we are outnumbered badly and they are trying to cancel out our tech advantage" and skilled enough to do decent damage to the inca while still getting out with sizable amounts of men who now understand this new enemy. I kind of hope he does well after his retreat, after several "ha, they are just savages, wait what's happening?" types, someone who sees the inca as a worthy foe would be interesting.
And very lethal to the inca since in OTL even with the 'they're just savages' they ended up winning forever.
 
First off, just started this TL today, and it's great so far; much praise!

Things are not going well for Spanish attempts to conquer the Incas so far, and that's all well and good; much of these failures can be laid at the arrogant stupidity of the would-be conquistadors, which is also all well and good. But the Spanish invaders aren't going to be so obligingly stupid forever, as Andagoya's retreat foreshadows, and the Spanish aren't going to just give up on trying to get their hands on the wealth of this empire to the south.

So what are the long term prospects? I think that without some kind of settlement with the Spanish Empire, giving them time to modernize, the Incas still don't stand a chance; likely, the Inka is going to have to end up paying tribute to these people (though if its any consolation, it will be way less than what the Spanish extracted from his lands OTL). Somebody asked before if Cortes was going to enter the picture; since a savy, cunning son-of-a-bitch / magnificent bastard like him isn't going to be so easy for the Incas to defeat, I could see him playing the role of, first, concluding that the extraction of tribute (and suzentry, etc) is preferable to a long and bloody conquest, and second, getting the Inka to agree to some kind of peace Spain can live with (getting gold and silver, letting priests preach in the shore cities, etc).

The Tawantinsuyu may grumble at these terms, but if they're smart, they can use the peace to buy time to build up their arm, fortify their roads and towns, etc. Thoughts?
Ah shit, I've got to consider how the butterflies will effect China
Some thoughts there (which mind you, I'm getting much of this history from what I remember of David Graeber, who I would take with big bowl of salt) -- Ming China had been switching to a precious metal based monetary system starting in the mid 15th Century, as several silver mines across the country were legalized; however, by the mid 16th Century, these natural reserves were starting to run short, and there was the threat of a currency crunch; around the same time (1540 or so), European markets could no longer absorb any more gold or silver into their economy, so much had inflation run amuck, and if the Spanish Empire could not find a market for their gold soon, the demand for their metals would crash, and they'd be in a tight economic spot. So it was (according to Graeber) that Spain and Europe started to send their gold to China, buying up goods to resell in Europe, over time draining the precious metals further out of their own continent.

Now, if Spain doesn't hold the Incas, that changes everything; even if they're getting tribute to leave the empire to the south alone, no Potosi silver mines means way less precious metals being pumped into the global economy. Which means (even if Graeber got a lot of the above wrong, which wouldn't surprise me), massive changes to the economic histories of early modern Europe and China, in turn meaning massive social, political, et el changes therein.
 
A few thoughts I'd like to share on the potential long term effects on the Andes.

An important thing to keep in mind is that the vassalization or conquest of the Inca by the Spanish or any European power does not mean the end of Andean civilization and certainly not its legacy.

Even after the incorporation of the Andes into the colonial system and the catastrophic population decline, indigenous peoples still outnumbered all foreign populations through the entirety of the colonial period. In a timeline where the colonial advance is much slower, the foreign populous will be smaller still, by percentage and absolute numbers. The chances of any kind of complete population replacement diminishes the longer the Inca survive.

In OTL after all was said and done, the Andes lost close to 90-95% of its population, from around 12 million to a little above 600,000. However, if we reduce the overall drop to (a still catastrophic) 70 or even 80%, we could have more than twice the native population at its nadir compared to OTL near at least 1.2 million (90%) to 2.4 million (80%). Even if one disregards the estimates of the population of the Andes at contact, the amount of indigenous peoples will still be larger than any foreign settlers.

With larger numbers in mind, the biggest contrast between a surviving native Andean state and the colonial landscape of the equivalent time period is that the most productive lands won't be held by Europeans. Likewise, Andeans will not be meeting forced quotas while relegated to marginal areas. The long term changes are profound. Many who would've toiled away in mines may work instead on Andean administration, trade and especially agriculture. The population decline can be mitigated by the adoption of new crops and livestock. This will occur (there wasn't large opposition to such adoption) with a better ability to produce food for their own communities in contrast to producing for the repartimiento.

Down the line the introduced diseases will become endemic and the amount of indigenous people will reach its nadir with a higher population than OTL. Even if the Andes are under the rule of a colonial power, the relatively larger population, integration of livestock, new crops and industries under the preceding Inca will mean the indigenous people are much harder to marginalize. Who ever establishes a colonial regime won't get away with the rapacious exploits of OTL. ITTL anything resembling intensive settlement by Europeans will occur much later, be much smaller and won't be accomplished without a large degree of compromise. A significantly more amount of native culture will survive, and certainly the memory of independence and shared resistance.

After the lowest ebb in native population, growth will be dramatic. The natives were quick to adopt new cultivation techniques in OTL throughout the Spanish Americas and the Inca were excellent synthesizers of whatever advantages would come their way as we all know. The already integrated food production techniques and greater availability of prime land will lead to a population increase on par with any settler colonial state. In fact, the Andes could be poised to be the most populous region of the Americas for some time. Most importantly, the rising population growth, smaller European population, and recent memory of Inca resistance can combine into a successful rebellion during an ATL version of the Atlantic Revolutions, the likes of which would make Tupac Amaru II proud.

...

Some shorter term thoughts.

Even faced with a spiraling decline in population, Andeans can certainly continue the construction of homes, administrative centers and fortifications. The European population was never large enough to construct these works consistently alone and the labor used was mostly indigenous. Virtually any stone construction built during the colonial era can be made by a surviving Inca state.

Moreover, the means to perform certain state functions is still possible even with a substantially smaller native populous. Nobles whose lineage stretches back to Inca times still existed at Cusco into the rebellion of Tupac Amaru and the descendents of Aymara kings were still organizing labor corvees on the eve if independence.

With regards to the silver mines under Inca control, the Patio process may take longer to spread to the Andes compared to OTL. By the time it does, the Inca might be in a somewhat stronger position (likely benefiting from peaceful relations). The extraction and trade of silver may be a longer term process to the benefit of the Inca. Mining would continue, but its wealth will be predominantly in native hands and supported by close knit aid groups as opposed to colonial authorities. A great many Andeans may be able to afford imported luxury goods, among other things.

...

I guess the main point of this post is that, more often than not, many assume that conquest by colonial powers is the end of the story, but the fate of the indigenous people is more determined by the details of how this occurs than anything. There are always many means of resistance, integration and systems of interaction. It is from these details that a radically different world from OTL eventually emerges.
 
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So even if Spain conquers the Andean Empire later, if it comes after the diseases become endemic and the population bottoms out, it will be a considerably less exploitative colonization than OTL; do I have that right? In which case, the macro-economic effects of less Inca gold and silver in the global economy may well exacerbate this process, and vice versa.
 
Another possible effect of the POD is slower exploration. Why search everywhere for El Dorado when you KNOW where the silver is.
 
Isn't this TL about a successful Incan state that resists and drives the Spanish out of their empire?
It may be still; my point was, even if Spain still conquers the Inca several decades later, not only will the colonial period be very different, but the global butterfly affects will already be massive.
 
It may be still; my point was, even if Spain still conquers the Inca several decades later, not only will the colonial period be very different, but the global butterfly affects will already be massive.

Right and it's not as if the Incan Empire is going to survive intact until 2016 ITTL no matter what.
 
So even if Spain conquers the Andean Empire later, if it comes after the diseases become endemic and the population bottoms out, it will be a considerably less exploitative colonization than OTL; do I have that right? In which case, the macro-economic effects of less Inca gold and silver in the global economy may well exacerbate this process, and vice versa.
Essentially yes. The possibility of more rapid extraction is still there, but equally likely is a more subdued process where the product is traded instead of flowing away immediately. Lucrative trade would be in the best interests of the Inca, Spanish, and any newcomers that arrive. All that's needed is the attitude shift away from the short term plunder of the initial encounter (of which we could slowly start seeing now). I don't have enough of a grasp on 1500s-1700s economics to measure the global effects but there is definitely more than one direction this could go.

Isn't this TL about a successful Incan state that resists and drives the Spanish out of their empire?
This is more up to the author than anything. I didn't intend to come off as if Tawantinsuyu would inevitably fall, just that even if they did it wouldn't be the end all. There will still be plenty of Andeans even if the total is miniscule compared to before. The continuity between the Inca and what could follow would be even stronger. All things considered, the sons of Inti will not perish even under foreign rule.
 
The most important bit is weathering the transition from epidemic disease to endemic disease. If that happens alongside widespread social dislocation and starvation it's going to be a lot more unpleasant than if it happens while there's (relative) peace and order being maintained. Having an 80% drop-off of population at the nadir instead of 95% will have absolutely massive effects.
 
The most important bit is weathering the transition from epidemic disease to endemic disease. If that happens alongside widespread social dislocation and starvation it's going to be a lot more unpleasant than if it happens while there's (relative) peace and order being maintained. Having an 80% drop-off of population at the nadir instead of 95% will have absolutely massive effects.
Luckily, the Incas had a very clever system of food storage that ensures the effects of any famine would be minimized. After the conquest, Spain pillaged these warehouses and destroyed many of them. With a surviving empire, things will be much different, indeed.
 
The most important bit is weathering the transition from epidemic disease to endemic disease. If that happens alongside widespread social dislocation and starvation it's going to be a lot more unpleasant than if it happens while there's (relative) peace and order being maintained. Having an 80% drop-off of population at the nadir instead of 95% will have absolutely massive effects.
Yes the time period you describe is the most difficult part any post contact society would face. Just a little more people surviving now will go a long way. One thing to consider is the fact that the highlands experienced a less severe demographic decline compared to the coast or rainforests. Thus, reducing the overall death rate here, in the Inca's highly defensible heartland, could not only leave the region much stronger than the same period OTL, but also allow it to help sustain the other regions harder hit that remain in their grasp. The highland stronghold of the Inca is definitely more robust than any base the Spanish establish on the coast for some time and a less severe decline of people in the upland will only compound this advantage.

Luckily, the Incas had a very clever system of food storage that ensures the effects of any famine would be minimized. After the conquest, Spain pillaged these warehouses and destroyed many of them. With a surviving empire, things will be much different, indeed.
Quite, and the construction of these storehouses will continue across the areas under Inca control, to be distributed where needed. No doubt they will incorporate new crops and technology. I can see warehouses making up the majority of public works for the time period. The impact of stronger native agriculture and even a marginally more populated Andes will continue to grow as time goes on. Definitely a great many consequences down the road.
 
Whoo boy, an American TL! Time to sub.

Murphy was the greatest Conquistador of them all.
Can I sig this?
Oddly enough it was Malaria, not some European Disease.
Still an Old World disease, though.
Not very soon. At this point in time, the Qing dynasty is very strong and can easily crush Europeans or South Americans or whoever. Still, that might open up China's doors to help the Inca. After all, they're both suffering from the Europeans' greed...
Given this very unlikely trans-oceanic alliance, how China-like would Tawantinsuyu become? And vice versa?
 
Given this very unlikely trans-oceanic alliance, how China-like would Tawantinsuyu become? And vice versa?

It'd probably be very one-sided unless the Tawantinsuyu are aware enough to sell the Sapa Inca as the God of Silver. I imagine Chinese script would find itself rivaling Latin script for the hearts and minds of the first scholars.
 
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