Sir John Valentine Carden survives.

[Finbarr the Fair]

I think the key thing here might be - the British officers are concerned with their supply situation. Rommel is concerned with coming up with clever tactics and well-coordinated attacks. If said clever tactics fail to make big gains long enough, the Germans will likely find their munitions or, worse, fuel in such a drastic state the axis forces will have to pull back much further, potentially with more vehicles left behind they can afford.

Yes but unless the British are significantly more coordinated and adept at small unit tactics than OTL Gazala their better logistics and equipment may just make victory harder for Rommel and the subsequent pursuit less effective. Maybe both sides are exhausted and it's 'Back to Square One' positionally.

Up to our author of course.

 

[CB13]

Just so I'm understanding underlying strategic view. As the British were unable to advance, their current strategic prioty is ensure the defense of Benghazi, correct? And on the other side, the immediate objective of the German-Italian force is to take Benghazi? Any chance the British could use this to their advantage, draw their enemy East to extend their supply lines even further (while shortening their own), and then spring a trap encircling the entire enemy force? The enemy has shown themselves to be overly aggressive, and the British have the strategic depth to do it....they just need someone to identify the option.

 

[X Oristos]

I sincerely doubt the 5cm pak 38 production would have been increased in a meaningful way. The gun was produced since April 1940. Apparently there were production issues that restricted OTL production at <100 guns per month throughout 1940 and only in Aprin 1941 the production reached 150 guns per month. The guns used in the initial stages of Barbarossa used standard rounds with a penetration of 69mm at 100m. From June to December 1941, the Germans produced 1,463 5cm pak 38, while from June to November, 555 pak 36 anti-tank guns were produced.

Why were the Germans producing in 1941 anti-tank guns that they knew already there were terribly inefficient? I sucpect for the same reason the British were producing A9s, A10s and A13s for months after they realized they are obsolete. Tooling and expertise to mass produce a new weapon are not gained from one month to the other. Moreover, I doubt the ATL Arras can have a great impact on the priorities of the german war economy. After all, the Germans in OTL knew their guns are inefficient against Matildas, Somuas and B1bis. Arras was a british small tactical success that would pale against the total subjugation of France in a campaign quicker than the 1870 victory of Moltke. In the end, there is no active front against the British to force Germany to concentrate much more resources in solving much quicker the issues of the new gun production. Libya is not considered a proper front: there are just a single panzer division there and a reinforced panzer regiment (5th Light).

If for some reason the Germans throw everything reichsmark of anti-tank gun production to the pak 38, it will come to bite them in the ass. That would mean that there will be much fewer pak 36s and only marginally more pak 38s. The infantry divisions in Barbarossa may have either a single battery of pak 38s or a full compliment of 36s. Or perhaps to leave a fair number of infantry divisions with no anti-tank guns at all. The Germans simply cannot afford both.

 

[Peg Leg Pom]

Hey, looting the enemy baggage train is a time honoured tradition! How else are those noble aristocratic gentlemen supposed to pay their horrendous debts off?

They could get a trade and earn an honest living.

 

[Finbarr the Fair]

Hey, looting the enemy baggage train is a time honoured tradition! How else are those noble aristocratic gentlemen supposed to pay their horrendous debts off?

I doubt they ever paid the debts off. Just serviced the interest (sometimes) and otherwise rolled them over.

 

[marathag]

e Germans simply cannot afford both

Well, more Czech 4.7cm Pak 38(t) could have had production continued with if the Pak36 was found even more lacking than OTL

 

[marathag]

They could get a trade and earn an honest living.

Upper Class Twits? Honest living?

 

[Winged-One]

Maybe, but this is counterbalanced by better British Lend-Lease tanks which were an important part of Soviet medium and heavy tank strength in late 1941/early 42. Instead of Valentines and Matildas the Russians will get diesel Valiants.

Would they get Valiants or would they instead receive Crusaders and other Nuffield tanks? If the British like the Valiant so much, they might decide to keep Valiants for British divisions and send Crusaders as lend-lease.

 

[Peg Leg Pom]

Upper Class Twits? Honest living?

It's either that or pimp out their wives and daughters to the king. (Which may be how their families got a title to start with).

 

[yulzari]

They could get a trade and earn an honest living.

Or turn to crime and end up in America, or later, Australia.

 

[Asian Jumbo]

Or turn to crime and end up in America, or later, Australia.

Or Parliament…but I think we digress…

 

[X Oristos]

Well, more Czech 4.7cm Pak 38(t) could have had production continued with if the Pak36 was found even more lacking than OTL

Indeed, but in OTL only 159 czech 4,7cm guns were produced in the second half of 1941 vis-a-vis the 555 pak 36. I suspect such a thing happened because it would be a huge and temporary investment of massively expand the 4,7's production when a better gun is on its way. If the Germans expand the 47mm production, then the pak 38 will have an even lower rate of production.

German war economy had severe limitations in what was possible to be done and how quickly. Germany was not USA with its incredible industrial potential - and even the Americans had limitations until early 1944.

I really doubt Rommel could maintain the roadblock TBH. I think the only chance he really has to break the British would be to attack as the British send a force back to try to break the roadblock, but I don't know if that's practical.

I think so as well.

When the 5th Leichte arrived, it had just 95 Pz III and IV. It was basically a beefed up panzer regiment. They lost already a fair number of tanks when they tested the british defences when they arrived at the front. I don't think replacement tanks could have been sent, since all shipping available would be dedicated in bringing the 15th Panzer in Libya, especially since in TTL there is only Tripoli as a port. The British are overextended, eye. But I firmly believe the 5th Leichte is even more.

There is also the fact that Tripoli is within bomber range and Malta Convoys will be staged from Alexandria with Cyrenaica providing cover for a significant part of the trip. Hurricanes can fly directly to Malta as well. In any case, Fliegerkorps X will move to Greece even without a Battle of Crete, since it is much more important for german interests than Malta.

Malta can be reinforced and developed as a major base much quicker. For example, before Cyrenaica was overrun by the Axis, 6 Hurricanes of 274 Squadron had flown there. Without Cyrenaica hosting Axis bombers, the base equipment and personnel of the 274 Squadron could have been transported there, especially since there is land air cover. The rest of the squadron's fighters could have easily arrived as well. There is no reason that by May-June 1941, Malta cannot have 4 instead of 3 fighter squadrons.

 

[marathag]

the Germans expand the 47mm production, then the pak 38 will have an even lower rate of production

I don't believe the Skoda Works were doing either Pak 36 37mm or the 50mm, the 50 was Rheinmetall- so those.lines should have been available still after May 1940 when the 36 was found wanting.
It looks by June, 1940, only 20 Pak 38 had been accepted, and monthly production did not exceed 50 until September

 

[X Oristos]

I don't believe the Skoda Works were doing either Pak 36 37mm or the 50mm, the 50 was Rheinmetall- so those.lines should have been available still after May 1940 when the 36 was found wanting.
It looks by June, 1940, only 20 Pak 38 had been accepted, and monthly production did not exceed 50 until September

Well, I think the issue is of having finite resources. If they try to increase the production of both pak 38 and the 47mm, then they have to reduce the production of something else, e.g. howitzers. But without an active front in Europe, why decision-takers will compromise the expansion of the Heer before Barbarossa in order to produce the two anti-tank guns? Arras may seem important to us and TTL Britain, but it was a battle of little consequence for the Germans. It just serves to reinforce an existing notion and not lead to a paradigm shift when it comes to resource allocation.

 

[Peg Leg Pom]

Arras may seem important to us and TTL Britain, but it was a battle of little consequence for the Germans. It just serves to reinforce an existing notion and not lead to a paradigm shift when it comes to resource allocation.

To the Germans in either timeline the Battle of Arras was a minor setback during a stunningly successful campaign, nothing to panic about.

 

[MattII]

To the Germans in either timeline the Battle of Arras was a minor setback during a stunningly successful campaign, nothing to panic about.

Maybe in OTL, but combine this with the ITTL defence of Calais, and now Greece, and I think the British might well be seen by the Germans as more worthy of respect.

 

[thedarkmaster]

From a German point of view it will still look like the British are very good at evacuating troops from the continent.
There has been a wildly successful campaign in France, a few set backs...but wild sucess will mean there importance is probably missed.
There has been a successful campaign in Greece where the British retreated rather than stand and fight and where hugely helped by the terrain ending with them once again fleeing to the sea leaving lots of their equipment on the shore.
They have done well against the Italian army but well ........ Italians !! They where coming off second best to the Greeks.
Going to take more to happen in Africa for Germans to take note and change policy

 

[MattII]

I suppose. Though I suspect some of the more intelligent commanders will be getting a bit thoughtful.

 

[Derek Pullem]

From a German point of view it will still look like the British are very good at evacuating troops from the continent.
There has been a wildly successful campaign in France, a few set backs...but wild sucess will mean there importance is probably missed.
There has been a successful campaign in Greece where the British retreated rather than stand and fight and where hugely helped by the terrain ending with them once again fleeing to the sea leaving lots of their equipment on the shore.
They have done well against the Italian army but well ........ Italians !! They where coming off second best to the Greeks.
Going to take more to happen in Africa for Germans to take note and change policy

*This*

The Germans have already "reacted" in getting their tanks up-armoured and upgunned. The problem is that they at least a cycle behind the British at the moment as pretty soon the upgunned Valiant will be appearing closely followed by the next generation of tank. Well before they have deployed the long 75mm.

The Germans are plying the role of the Allied tankers IOTL. It won't be until the Tiger and Panther are deployed in numbers that they can claim to be ahead of the curve. And by then the British will be fielding alt-Comets with Centurions in development.

And have air superiority as IOTL

 

[Finbarr the Fair]

I suppose. Though I suspect some of the more intelligent commanders will be getting a bit thoughtful.

Possibly

Likely the overall view is that while the French, Belgiana, Dutch, Italians and Greeks aren't in the same league as Germany . . . .

The British are but not challenging the Germans for the Championship. Yet