All of this makes me think that there's no On The Bounce invasion as surely the Germans both 1) appreciated Allied forces more and 2) will have figured out that Crete has got a reasonable amount of evacuated troops - more so than OTL's apparently farcical intelligence report
In a sane world you'd be right.
But as I said a while back in the thread... I think it was this thread anyway the main driver for the invasion of Crete was quite literally the Luftwaffe gambling in an attempt to win back prestige so that they'd have more influence during the Invasion of Russia. Or perhaps I should say, so that Goering could have more influence.
The "Luftwaffe" will have even more of a need for that TTL. The SS came out of this looking like incompetents, the "Luftwaffe" was looking good until they threw away troops and the Heer itself stands both successful and not incompetent.
And Goering and Himmler both would never stand for that. They both need a success to not end up falling out of favour. Which means another military campaign prior to Barbarossa, which pretty much just means Crete.
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