So if I may way in on all my thoughts for the future with the current state of affairs.
Going chronological order.
But need to establish things first.
Pre the Ligurian battle
The French had 12 pre+semi dreadnought (correction a lot more then that but these are the ones that mattered)
note not great ships but pretty good hitting power I would argue on the heavier side then the Italians, relative amour in some of the older ships had slightly better armour then their counterparts counterparts
They were however, dreadfully slow however only 2 capitol ships on the italian fleet were as slow as the majority of these vessels. The Ammiraglio di Saint Bon-class battleship at 18 knots which lines up with what the French were capable of with theirs otherwise the Italians nearly always had the speed advantage. And that specific class was used as a depot and support vessel for the dreadnoughts by this time which lines up well with what I will be discussing
The Italians had 8 pre-dreadnoughts
As I already mentioned much faster, typically they were able to keep pace with the other dreadnoughts at 20-22 knots. Decent fire power but somewhat lack more general purpose. Armour varied between ships but consistent on them the French varied tiny bit more.
In regards of the dreadnoughts we have discussed in great regards so I shall keep it brief italy had 5 France had 4 (for the Ligurian battle it would have been 64, 12 inches to 40)
So totals were 16-13 capital ships this is not including Italy's ironclads they kept.
From what was said while the battle of the Ligurian Sea was a French victory without a doubt with them sinking a quite valuable dreadnought you did say they lost a fair bit you mentioned that the Voltaire was lost, wouldn't be surprised more were with the disparity between guns and the fact you gave the feeling it was a lot more even . Either way that may have set the next battle so let's assume they lost 1 and it was just a French victory even if at a cost. Pretty tame engagement
Then we have the battle with 1 Voltaire down and another on assignment that leaves then with 15 Battleships for the fleet and 13 assuming no other losses for Italy. Now we know how the battle played out 3 dreadnoughts lost. Now you have mentioned that the French naval fleet has 8 Battleships remaining I am unsure if that includes the new ones coming off the line. I assume you are not including them in that statement so by the end they should have 10 Battleships once the Bretagne ships are ready. but that does mean they lost 8 ships in that battle alone possibly 10 if you were including the new ships ( I hope not the poor French). Now if I was to suspect any more Battleships losses it would be the Ammiraglio di Saint Bon-class as it would be too slow and loiter where the other slower French vessels could pick them off. As too why these losses happened easy. They would be too slow the Italians could simply use their speed to seperate the dreadnoughts from the rest then simply pick away. This becomes even worse when you factor in italian mas and subs it would be like sharks circling.
Either way this battle was an unmitigated disaster. Now this isn't to say it could be worse. In this type of battle I will be honest could of very well resulted in complete kneecapping of the French fleet. But from now on assuming those two ships were sunk then the next engagement would be 10 French to 11 italian capitol ships. the new Bretagne are counted then it's 8 to 11 ( once again hope they aren't counted).
I couldn't understate how bloody precarious this situation for the French is. Another engagement without reinforcement would likely see a good portion more or depending on how badly the French fuck up the whole fleet sunk. The reason being is the Italians could just repeat the same process as described above used speed to separate the two ships then basically concentrate on the dreadnoughts while the other vessels do their best to insulate and disperse the older ships. With the gun disparity it is not going to end well for France though Italy would take an absolute beating to do so.
But that is all details to be decided later.
Onto the meat of my thoughts.
The results of the naval battle and my thoughts on the current ground campaign. So I have mentioned a bit my thoughts, first is how this changes the naval balance which until Britain can reinforce and if it does is decidedly in cp favour. The next thing is these battles I would argue would have killed the idea of fleet in being. The concept that you can use the threat to force them back without overwhelming odds just doesn't work, not just that they have illustrated that decisive battle can achieve tangible and successful results which is very important because with Germany and Britain looking on they will come to a lot more aggressive conclusions, for Germany this an example of a smaller force successfully bringing down a larger. For Britain it would be thought these cp navies need to be nipped an initiative taken back lest they force a battle Britain doesn't want. Because the alternative is pulling back and that would massively hurt the blockade. So this will encourage much more aggressive and risky gambling to put the other party away. Which for me with how precarious things are will do more harm for Britain then Germany. Then we have the Med naval front, where I will tackle the Austrian fleet. With how Austria is doing I would argue there is no way they can remain in Trieste but at the same time they won't go to battle with their fleet unless kicking and screaming. Something I doubt italy is willing to push heavily for. Not just that I think everyone is aware that even with Austria atm having the largest capital fleet in the med it will not last post war. Not just that but the Austrian vessels were small with low stability, poor ventilation of turrets, very heavy rudder resistance which if laid at anything more then 10 degrees could cause a heavy list, plus there is little space between the mine armour and some of ammunition magazines which caused the sinking of one of their ships. All in all at a glance they were fine designs which is probably why some called them great ships but there was a lot of niggling design and structural issues which ultimately crippled its quality. But back on topic they needed to do something so as to not look like they were coasting. My recommendation would the they redeploy their fleet to an italian port in the south to protect the Adriatic at its mouth. This does multiple things first it shows they aren't inactive which is especially important when they are struggling with the ground war and second they can deploy in a more aggressive manner which can scare the entente and force them to peel more ships away from the north sea and third less sea to patrol while placating the Italians. All of this while not risking a single ship. It is In my opinion quite viable because it was already agreed upon when discussions on a joint fleet happened the only thing they argued over was who would lead. That isn't an issue they aren't joint. Instead they are just basing there. This would place Britain in an interesting position with 3 options, send nothing and cp controls the Mediterranean unlikely in my opinion, next is they send 8 large vessels and their respective support to replace the French vessels. This is quite possible but risks there being another fleet engagement and with the current situation italy is a lot more aggressive and perceived as much with their fleet of you combined this with an Austrian redeployment then I think the entente may be quite panicked to really adopt this lax of a move because on the case they do link up the entente will be lacking the needed numbers to combat them as it would be 21 vs 24. More likely they seek to gain advantage to ward off fleets so a deployment of 12 ships which would make it 25-24 which is a large enough deployment to scare away any engagement. Why is this well simple we as the audience know that neither the Italians or Austrians are willing to exchange but the entente don't know that and from their perspective they have been quite aggressive. Something that in their minds payed massive dividends.
One thing is di revel will be untouchable from now on.
This will ripple heavily into jutland so honestly I am not going to attempt to see how that plays out other then Britain willing a lot fewer ships which is vital i believe to the engangement. I wish you luck my friend it will be the battle of the ages.
In regards of the land war it ofc is a bloody thing, however I disagree this will be like the isonzo campaign. Simply put the material goals of the campaign are different, in otl cadorna was convinced he could break the Austrian lines 11 battles later and horrific offensive losses he was, to bad for him capporetto ended that possibility. Here cadorna for all his aggression isn't looking to explicitly crack the line but run I dry as such the emphasis for the next commander will be to keep engagement but unlike otl where he was willing to take extreme losses for potential breakthroughs he will instead just go after blood as such the French will know no peace but they likely won't face the full force just yet until it looks like the north may start to falter which from how Wilhelm the tenth has described it will likely be near the end of the year early next. Once he sees weakness otl cadorna will be out to play and the italian blood will flow aplenty the only issue is so will the French and I suspect the French won't have the men. Which may mean cadorna gets what he wants a major breakthrough near the end, which will likely unravel the French front. I will say this cadorna is very unlikely to have the incredibly tainted perception of him we have of him otl.
End of war
I somalia is lost no doubts about it. However, Eritrea will likely be a mess for whoever occupies it because it had a friendlier relationship with Italy which will complicate any occupation
In terms of end goals
1st Nice
No way they wouldn't get this it is the center point of the French irredentia.
2nd: Savoy or Corsica
Both have their positives and negatives both have value up to the French on which one they are willing to fight more for. But if one gets occupied then both are ending up in italian hands.
3rd: Tunsia
Many have said their piece it's seizure by the French was a humiliation and italy getting it would be strategic win however irrendentia such as nice savoy and Corsica will always rank higher in goals.
4th getting Eritrea back
5th somalia
6th any additional colonies.
Overall IMHO italy will likely get all the irredentia off France the treatment very similar to otl Germany as by the end of the war they just won't have anything else left and everyone will know it . There is unlikely to be a stab in the back myth for France mainly because they indisputably lost and it wouldn't be the first. However, the colony's are a big asterisks may recommend that colonies or reparations may be the choice Germany forces on them. Britain is an interesting one because their economy just wouldn't be able to wait out Germany especially if France falls example would be they likely have to abandon the med unless their willing to split fleets to fight everyone. one the accounting side of things they just aren't receiving the same resources they were OTL from america which completely cripples their long term capability to combat germany in a long game
Anyways some of my thoughts
