They might be, at least I think so. Antwerp is in Flanders, after all, and from the sound of things, the Flemish seem to be less antagonistic to the Germans after the war, and have a large stake in the current Belgian government. Enough that they could push for at least economic rapprochement with Germany, with the next two years allowing Antwerp to be ready for the Olympics.
EDIT: If they can't become pro-German independent once/if Belgium falls apart, can't Flanders just go back to the Netherlands? I mean, the Flemish are/were Dutch, aren't they? Sure, it'll disappoint Kaiser Bill, but he's got no real beef with the Dutch, so I don't see him really opposing it either.
Very good points there. Since Nord-Pas-de-Calais wants to pretend as much as possible that it's not actually part of Belgium, the Flemish and Walloons are more or less on equal footing. I could see Antwerp getting the Olypmics if things go right.
With regards to annexation into Holland... I don't really know. I suppose it's possible, but it would require British and German consent. And would Amsterdam really want to take them on? However, you might be right and it could be plausible- I don't really know.
I vote for a Balkanized france. Much more interesting than France continuing to exist,
Noted. A Balkanised France would certainly be fun, as would an east-west or north-south split which doesn't even pretend to be based on ethnicity (viz, East/West Germany and North/South Korea)
Eh, it's more likely France just gets more of its outlying regions chopped off, kinda like how Germany today only has the 'core' of the old German Empire.
That would be another possibility; German military annexation, throwing land at Belgium, and Breton independence would leave France a shadow of itself.
Other than Brittany and Corsica and some border lands metropolitan France splitting up permanently is not happening in the 20th century.
There are certainly no ethnic lines upon which to do so- but that wasn't an issue in Germany or Korea. Regardless, your point is valid.
Well, yeah, that's probably the case, but never say never, eh? Purely synthetic countries that exist just because someone decided to randomly chop something bigger up are very much a thing IRL.
To the winner goes the cartography
And as we know, designing borders for their visual appeal is always a great idea, no?
Given the second German-alliance victory over the French and their allies, what's to stop the Germans from deciding to split them up at the point of a bayonet? "Those Frenchmen have attacked us three times in less than a century, it's time to prevent it forever!"
Again, this is very much a possibility. If the Allies could carve up Germany for no other reason than
realpolitik, something similar can happen in France.
Same reason OTL that Germany wasn't turned into a pastoral nation. Long-term it's almost impossible to do, They can attempt it but here's hoping that the germans are smart enough to go for an EU approach after round two instead
1. If the US and Britain had been on board with pastoralizing Germany, it could have happened, it's just a matter of sitting on them forever and eating the civilian casualties.
2. An EU-ish approach is easier with a bunch of smaller states dependent on you.
Great points from both of you. With regards to a sort of alt-EU, it would probably look more like OTL's Warsaw Pact in which German troops are stationed on the soil of the member states, the governments are subject to Berlin to varying degrees, and Germany is very obviously the supreme state.
The European Steel and coal commission was designed around the idea that if you integrate the economies that are necessary for war, war is less likely, and that was done with just Italy, France, Benelux, and West Germany. Yes, France was the big dog there, but it wasn't engulfing the other economies. It proved so successful it slowly grew and expanded until the EU that we know today. The Civilian and military casualties are going to be intolerable. The occupied territory is just too close to home, media will get out how bad it is (or just word of mouth), and as economies and technology develop human capital will be worth a hell of a lot more than the coal under them. Long term occupation is a losing game unless they can be integrated into the whole nation, which is not going to happen unless the Germans engage in wide-scale ethnic cleansing.
Excellent points there. As mentioned above, such an integration would be more about ensuring Germany's dominance than maintaining peace for altruism's sake... but the effect would be the same.
We saw in the update how something similar to an alt-Troubles or even Israel-Palestine is taking place in the occupied regions and a solution will have to be found there eventually. Otherwise, it might end up almost like Vietnam: occupying northern France will just get too bloody for minimal gain. Of course, such a climb down would be seen as a massive concession to France and I can't see any German government swallowing it for decades. It's a no-win situation.
The Germans wouldn't have to enforce it by force forever. Those who want to deflect blame for their mistakes from themselves are very capable of selectively remembering history. Just like Austria in OTL, if France goes really nasty in TTL then after a generation or two of seperation Brittany and other regions will invent a national identity for themselves and teach their children how ages ago the Evil Imperialists in Ile de France forced their ancestors under it's jackboot, so really they were it's first victims, etc etc.
Breton and even Basque/Catalonian nationalism might well be trumpeted by Germany in this world. One fewer place they have to put boots in.
one thing did cross my mind, during the peace treaty of GW1 germany was very generous towards the british, if there is a GW2 , they very likely won't make that 'mistake' again.
if the british will be on the opposing side and they lose, they will be screwed from here to next tuesday
Great point. Yes, I imagine a second defeat to Germany would end very badly for the British. However, as of 1917/1918, they aren't really thinking about going to war again. A lot can change in decades, and I have multiple ideas for Great Britain in the future. Time will tell.....