No, no real butterflies in Spain yet... I need to have a think about what to do there.
TTL will have a definitely-not-Spanish Flu but it won't be as bad as in our world's because there won't be a mass movement of troops between America and Europe. Besides, I look forward to reading the comments in the chapter about the worst pandemic in mankind's history...
Agreed. Germany and France are at peace right now and so overtly sabotaging French territorial integrity breaks the rules of the Great Power game. But that doesn't mean that if Breton nationalists rise up, Germany won't quietly back them...
France will remain "on fire" for quite some while.