Paralyzed in Darkness: A Very Different Cold War (TL)

[SuperZtar64]

Amazing update and amazing timeline, I must say! It's been awesome reading it!

A question: What has happened to Yugoslavia specifically now?

And another thing... I really don't want to look like a nitpicker or a Grammar Nazi, but I must point out that you have been misusing the word "it's" quite a bit. I just checked and only twice in this entire timeline have you used the word "its" at all.

Just to quickly explain, "it's" is just a contraction, a short form of "it is". So when you say "It's armed forces had always been..." you are basically saying "It is armed forces had always been..." which is obviously incorrect, the correct word should be "its".

Again, super sorry for being a Grammar Nazi and trying to look pretentious and stuff but I think you should just know.

Thanks for writing this!

 

[TheReformer]

Amazing update and amazing timeline, I must say! It's been awesome reading it!

Thanks! Glad you're enjoying it!

A question: What has happened to Yugoslavia specifically now?

Well Germany essentially has put the country under military administration, official borders and a new Government will be established shortly but for the moment i'd take it as the country being occupied essentially as if it were still during the war. Romania occupies the Banat region, Bulgaria occupies Pčinja, Jablanica and Pirot (all areas of southern Serbia) on top of Macedonia which they already controlled as a result of the Stockholm Agreement. Germany has committed to a two state solution in the region and as such Croatia will emerge as a legitimised state - it's merely a matter of time and borders - all while the Ustashe are just roaming Bosnia mostly pretty freely.

Grammar Nazi

I see what you did there! Nah it's fine, (see I got it right there ) I often screw these things up, but shall work to try and make sure they are easier reading in the future!

 

[TheReformer]

An Arab League​

Syria had been a 'mandate' of France for some time following the first world war, this was the consequence of the Sykes-Picot under which Britain and France divided up the middle east and carved out new empires within the borders of the collapsing Ottoman Empire. This was never how the peace process should have gone - in fact when President Wilson had imagined a world after the war in which nations were able to Govern themselves he never knew the League of Nations would simply manipulate this to allow greater control over them. These 'mandates' essentially worked on the premise that in some places countries should exist, but they were not ready to Govern themselves yet - the British and French therefore kindly looked after them until they were 'ready' despite providing little to no support for those people in terms of education or administrative training. Regardless though, the Arabs really did not like it. The British had somewhat come to terms with the idea that they were withdrawing from the region and had long planned at least roughly for it; they would establish a Jewish state in Palestine alongside a Palestinian state, grant independence to the Kingdom of Jordan and slowly grant more powers and independence to the Iraqis before their eventual break from the Empire entirely. This was largely the consequence of past commitments in the Balfour Agreement, but also a new found attitude against the existence of a vast sprawling empire held by Socialists in the Labour Party who were now Governing for the first time ever alone. France by contrast had the polar opposite policy.

Petain had taken office during a period in French history that many Frenchmen would still name their worst one hundred years later. France had not just been militarily defeated, its very character and national morale had been broken by Germany - and then shattered further with peace terms that pushed them further back territorially than they had been for centuries. Millions had been expelled or left the occupied zone and now found themselves only five years later with jobs and homes elsewhere in France or Algeria due to Petain's radical response. The character of the French people had changed, and thus demands for 'independence; to the French just felt like another loss. Why should they lose their prize possessions in Indochina, North Africa and the Middle East? Other Empires had retained theirs!

France so far had already sold away their Puducherry settlements in India, they had lost their territories in China after the Republic just walked in and refused to leave, and now there were fears of possible rebellion in Indochina after the Indonesian people rebelled against the Dutch. France felt confident however that after five years of military restoration and return to stability they were in a good position to put down the growing nationalist sentiment across the empire that they had witnessed in those five years. They had seen the Dutch response to the Indonesian rebellion and it had made them more confident, the Dutch had initially lost swathes of land, but having too been at peace with Germany for years by this point their regular forces soon arrived in the region following Japanese surrender and began throwing back the rebels. Following Operation Product in late 1946 the rebels now held barely any of Indonesia's territorial claims, and the Dutch still planned further offensives.

The French however would be surprised when it was not the various Indochinese peoples who attempted rebellion - it was the Syrians. France had negotiated a treaty of independence for the country in 1936 with the local authorities but had only agreed to independence in principal, and importantly insisted on French military and economic dominance which eventually led to the French refusing to ratify the treaty. The country once again had demanded independence at the end of the war in the west, only to be largely ignored by the French Government who were at the time quite rightfully distracted with other matters. By 1944 many Syrians had been ignored for long enough and protests erupted nation-wide leading to a French crackdown on Syrian independence activists and movements, as well as the killing of a lot of protesters. Damascus was cut off from the electricity grid and the Syrian Parliament occupied by French troops. At the time the Americans and British had reacted with anger toward the French for their actions, but over time the issue had become forgotten as the war in the Pacific wound down to a close as no nation could really do anything about the French decision - they had after all moved several additional divisions to the country to guard its northern border due to fears the Turks may flip sides to the Axis following the fall of the USSR.

By 1946 things in Syria had relaxed a bit, Damascus was firmly in the hands of the French Army but civilian life and administration had been restored. For many Syrians this was not enough though and an underground campaign had existed for several years now leading to various bombings of French military positions and the occasional gunfight in the streets of some of Syria's smaller eastern towns. Lebanon was much of the same, France had never recognised the Lebanese right to independence and so the country too was under occupation, this time of an even greater number of troops with the French using it as the main coastal hub of their middle eastern empire. Here too there were independence movements, though no individual force had any notable success and all were essentially isolated to the mountains. There were several main ideological fronts for Syrian and Lebanese independence however. In Lebanon there was an ongoing contest between the Kataeb Party - a Falangist Phoenician nationalist party led by Pierre Gemayel - and the Syrian Social Nationalist Party led by Antoun Saadeh. Their primary differences being the belief in the SSNP that Syria included Lebanon compared to the Kataeb Party's belief that Lebanon was its own state. The SSNP too was secular, nationalist and populist with firm near-socialist economic policy compared to the Kataeb Ultraconservatism, strong religious leanings and more standardised economic policy. The SSNP of course also operated with much success in Syria where their party had met much success both among the populace and on the battlefield where their armed branch often harassed or openly attacked French troops.

Germany had often taken a special interest in the middle east, especially since the end of the war. They had tirelessly worked to get the Turks on their side before operation Barbarossa and had failed, only to then re-start discussions once the USSR fell. Hitler was often cited as having believed that the Arab people were racially pure too, largely due to his belief that their devotion to Islam and the values it espoused made them strong. This of course was all incredibly hypocritical seeing as Hitler was not a religious man, nor did much of the Nazi Party like religion - but more importantly the Nazis were obsessively anti-semitic, and Arabs are Semites. Many western observers generally considered these hypocrisies to therefore be purely of circumstance, Hitler of course hoping to divide and splinter the British and French Empires wherever possible with Arab nationalism being a convenient tool to do so. In 1946 However the Reich returned to this policy with an especially keen interest. Having just stabilised and taken full control of the Balkans Germany now had direct access to the various ports of Croatia in the Adriatic, having only had access previously by going through the Italians who had become increasingly distant in recent years largely due to personal disliking and ideological clashes between Hitler and Mussolini. This new access meant Germany had the opportunity to reach out beyond its confines in northern Europe and start expanding its reach elsewhere, and the middle east looked to be a perfect location to begin to do so. The area was resource rich, it was the hub of the British empire due to the Suez Canal and rife with internal divisions and nationalistic sentiments due to French hesitancy to withdraw and the slow speed at which the British were planning to do so.

Germany after all had in the last few months or so become concerned about its geopolitical position and needed to branch out or risk becoming isolated in Europe by America's ever growing list of allies. Conventional states seemed less and less keen to side with them, with the exception of Spain and Turkey who were slowly moving towards the German Column due to irritation with the Americans or in Turkey's case being surrounded on all sides. Therefore Germany decided the only logical solution was to use what it had to make friends, and what it had was a lot of weapons - unlike the US who had a lot of money. Hitler assigned Franz Rademacher, the architect of the Madagaskar plan and an up-and-coming nazi foreign affairs official, to explore the possibility of establishing or supporting an armed insurgency against the western allies in Arabia. It did not take long for Antoun Saadeh to take a keen interest.

Saadeh was not a national socialist, nor was his party aligned directly with the Nazis despite some publications produced during his time in exile in Brazil that suggested otherwise. He himself had quite plainly said in 1935 "The system of the Syrian Social Nationalist Party is not a Hitlerite or a Fascist system, but that it is purely a Syrian system which does not stand on unprofitable imitation, but on basic originality which is one of the characteristics of our people". He was however an anti-communist, and anti-imperialist and a secular nationalist - as well as a very well educated man. He did not like Nazism's racial tenets, personally believing in a romanticist nationalist or civic nationalist approach that defied the false and arbitrary borders drawn on a map by the British and French. He was however a realist, and he could see that after having lived for now four years in hiding in Syria and Lebanon that his side was losing, and France was not getting any weaker. He therefore quietly left the country in September 1946 through Turkey and arrived at the German border a few weeks later with a small delegation of Syrians. Rademacher met with him shortly after, though Saadeh was definitely not the first person he had planned to meet - by the end of the meeting however Germany had found its new friend in Syria, all that was needed now was for Turkey to look the other way.

İsmet İnönü was not keen on the Germans, nor did he feel any kind of obligation to side with them now they had defeated Russia - he too though recognised that Germany was in total control west of his country and had a strong and strengthening presence east of it. Turkey had long considered the caucuses one of their most important strategic obstacles, in the first world war they had wanted to establish a buffer state there between Russia and their homelands and failed, not to mention that there were many Muslim and often nationalistic communities in the area that had been under Christian rule for a long time. İnönü had initially considered falling in with the Axis after the fall of Stalingrad, but hesitated and eventually bowed out of the idea due to British and French pressure. Germany of course was not going to give up the caucuses, it had far too great military and economic value, but they were however willing to discuss some territorial concessions and devolved administrations for the region to create an effective buffer between Turkey and the Reich. These discussions had been ongoing for several years now led by Ambassador to Turkey von Papen and finally were nearing a conclusion, with Germany now especially keen to finish a deal due to their new Syrian arrangements and also a desire to gain access to the Bosporus as Turkey had blocked them from doing for several years now without guarantees of Turkish security. So far Germany had committed to a new Georgian devolved administration in the Caucuses using the same borders defined by the USSR's Soviet Republic of Georgia, along with the establishment of a new devolved Government in Baku for the Azerbaijanis that would be led in a similar manner to that of the nation of Andorra. The German Fuhrer and Turkish President would act as joint heads of state while the Government would be administered by the leader of the Azerbaijani National Center in Exile, based in Istanbul, Muhammad Amin Rasulzadeh while Germany handled all foreign and defence policy matters. Germany too reserved the right to control and monopolise the oil fields of Baku and any other oil fields in Azerbaijan.

Turkey too demanded territorial concessions not just in the Caucuses but also from Bulgaria in exchange for their cooperation, starting with a return of the Muslim majority districts in eastern Thrace to Turkish control, along with small border changes on the Turkish-Georgian border to return some Muslim majority or Turkic areas. Armenia was also offered to Turkey as a means of connecting the country directly with the mutually administered area of Azerbaijan and because it had little to no strategic value to Germany except for the fact it had a Christian population that Germany cared little really for and if necessary would just move elsewhere. These terms, along with recognition of some limited Turkish claims in northern Syria and Iraq, finally turned Turkish opinion in December of 1946 leading to the Treaty of Baku being signed later that month between German, Turkish and Bulgarian signatories - officially amending the 1941 Treaty of Friendship between Germany and Turkey. Turkey had re-unified much of its lost Turkish majority or Muslim majority territories, and in exchange had signed a new access agreement with the Germans permitting the transport of limited military forces through Turkey and the use of the Bosporus straights. Germany had achieved a huge strategic breakthrough, and renewed its position on the world stage by gaining access to the middle east directly. By January weapons and training units would be flooding through Turkey on a direct path to northern Syria, and Syrian Social Nationalist forces were already attacking border checkpoints to make way for them.

 

[Gonzo]

I don't think it's going to be just the Kataeb Party that is irked or concerned by the SSNP's rise. It has ramifications for even the Kingdom of Iraq (is it more stable in this world?) and the British Mandate areas...

 

[TheReformer]

I don't think it's going to be just the Kataeb Party that is irked or concerned by the SSNP's rise. It has ramifications for even the Kingdom of Iraq (is it more stable in this world?) and the British Mandate areas...

The Kingdom if Iraq never experienced the 1941 coup as in OTL so i guess you could say it is a tad more stable. Main reason for this being that Germany was more interested in the USSR and did not want to inadvertently open a second front against the British while they were focused on defeating the Soviets. The State of Hatay btw has already gone to Turkey as per OTL in 1939 seeing as that was another event in the region that should be noted.

 

[Vuu]

I see that Germany is becoming something akin to medieval China - a big state with a system of tributaries, but itself quite isolated

I doubt that anyone will wanna see the various diaspora actually stay there for a moment longer though - the instant Germany pops, even if it's after 500 years, you'll see the Russians shipping Ukrainans on trains back to their original land, same for everyone else. There's a precedent for that now anyway

 

[TheReformer]

I see that Germany is becoming something akin to medieval China - a big state with a system of tributaries, but itself quite isolated

Actually a very good analogy.

 

[TheReformer]

1946​

10th January 1946 - First meeting of the United Nations takes place in Methodist Hall, London.

17th January 1946 - United Nations Security Council holds it's first session at Church House, London. Permanent Members include the United Kingdom, United States, Republic of China and the Republic of France. Members concur that Germany represents the greatest threat to international and European Security present.

UN Members 1946​

19th January 1946 - General Douglas MacArthur establishes the International Military Tribunal for the Far East in Tokyo to try Japanese war criminals.

21st January 1946 - Hungarian Regent Miklos Horthy bans the Hungarian 'Arrow Cross' party citing anti-state activities, their leader Ferenc Szálasi is arrested.

1st February 1946 - Lester B Pearson of Canada is elected as the first Secretary General of the United Nations. All other candidates are vetoed by security council members.

15th February 1946 - Canada indicts 22 suspected German Sicherheitsdienst agents.

20th February 1946 - 20 German soldiers and 2 Officers are killed in an ambush by Russian partisans north of the city formerly known as Ryazan (now 'Ludendorff').

22nd February 1946 - Ferenc Szálasi is shot for crimes against the state. Later records suggest Horthy had grown tired of his party's para-militarist activities.

24th February 1946 - Juan Perón is elected President of Argentina.

29th February 1946 - US military observers and training forces dispatched by General Douglas MacArthur to train and support Kuomintang forces in China.

2nd March 1946 - An attempt at free elections in the self proclaimed Democratic Republic of Vietnam is halted by French military forces resulting In the death of an estimated 26 Vietnamese citizens and widespread mass protests across the French colony that are broken up by armoured cars. The US condemns the action of the French Government. In Iran British troops withdraw from the south following previous treaties, soviet forces having long left the country after the fall of Stalingrad.

3rd March 1946 - Ho Chi Minh writes to US President Dewey seeking support for his Vietnamese independence movement. Dewey later responds, hinting support for Minh's cause against the advice of the state dept who are concerned by Minh's communist sympathies.

6th March 1946 - Winston Churchill, having gained minor notoriety following his demands to continue the war with Germany and the reunification of the Conservatives and Patriots as the Unionist Party, delivers a speech at Westminster College, Fulton, Missouri, where he labels Britain's unwillingness to continue the war the cause of the new 'iron curtain' that had been drawn over Europe.

10th March 1946 - The German state leisure organisation Kraft durch Freude, or Strength Through Joy, launches a new exceptionally low cost tour package named the "History of Bolshevism" package. The cruise tour features a visit to a former baltic soviet prison camp, a tour around the ruins of Leningrad as the city continues to be dismantled for Germanic redesign and finally a week at a Baltic Sea resort. KdF labels the tour as an "educational and entertaining step into the failures and crimes of Bolshevism".

15th March 1946 - Prime Minister Attlee reduces the time frame for Indian Independence from the initial January 1948 deadline to January of 1947 following surprisingly quick constitutional negotiations in India, Pakistan and Kashmir whom had successfully petitioned to remain independent as a princely state to settle disputes over the region between the two main states. Various divisions of the Royal Marines are further dispatched to India following their deployment in Asia during the various Indonesian landings by British forces in the pacific war to oversee the final transition to power.

17th March 1946 - Leon Trotsky calls for a new age of global communism and the socialist movement at a speech in Montréal, Quebec, following the failure of the Stalin model third international. He identifies Vietnam's struggle for independence as a clear example of socialism peacefully overthrowing an imperialist Government. Columnists note his shift away from revolutionary politics towards a more democratically socialist view.

19th March 1946 - French Guiana, Guadeloupe, Martinique and Réunion become overseas départements of France.

22nd March 1946 - United Kingdom officially grants independence to Transjordan.

10th May 1946 - Hungarian Prime Minister Döme Sztójay, seen as being a German puppet, forced to resign by Regent Horthy and Miklós Kállay is appointed as Prime Minister. Germany quietly expresses anger at this decision in diplomatic back channels but Horthy reassures Germany of Hungary's commitment to their alliance with Germany.

1st April 1946 - United Kingdom establishes the Crown Colony of Singapore and the Malayan Union out of the British Colony of Malaya. Both are to remain colonies of the British crown for the foreseeable future.

Forces of the Viet Minh group begin a guerilla war against the French administration in Indochina.

3rd April 1946 - Japanese Lt. General Masaharu Homma is executed outside Manila, the Philippines for leading the Bataan Death March.

10th April 1946 - In Japan, women vote for the first time, during elections for the House of Representatives of the 90th Imperial Diet.

18th April 1946 - The inaugural session of the International Court of Justice (ICJ) occurs. Furthermore the League of Nations, in its last meeting, transfers its mission to the United Nations and disbands itself.

1st May 1946 - Charles Vyner Brooke, no longer keen to retain the throne following the Pacific war, officially relinquishes the throne of Sarawak to his nephew Anthony Brooke. Council Negri is dissolved following legislative recognition of the new Rajah for new elections.

At least 800 Indigenous Australian pastoral workers walk off the job in Northwest Western Australia, starting one of the longest industrial strikes in Australia.

25th May 1946 - Emir Abdullah is named King of Transjordan following the establishment of the new Hashemite Kingdom on May 22nd.

28th May 1946 - Dutch forces in the Dutch East Indies initiate 'Operation Product' and successfully drive Indonesian rebels on Java and Sumatra away from the islands' major ports and cities into isolated regions in the north and central bands of the islands.

1st June 1946 - Pro-Rajah factions emerge victorious in Sarawak following elections.

2nd June 1946 - National Peasants Party wins first Romanian elections since the war following the dissolution of the National Renaissance Front by King Michael however fails to achieve a majority. The Garda de fier makes minor gains on their 1937 electoral levels under Horia Sima, Ion Antonescu remains as Conducător of Romania leading a coalition of the National Peasants and Iron Guard.

French Legislative Election leads to Union Nationale (UN) majority Victory.

14th June 1946 - UN adopts the Baruch Plan on nuclear power.

30th June 1946 - US War Relocation Authority abolished.

1st July 1946 - Operation Crossroads, a series of nuclear weapon tests conducted by the United States at Bikini Atoll in Micronesia, is initiated by detonation of 'Able' at an altitude of 520 feet (158 m)

4th July 1946 - Germany releases plans for the construction of two new 'Raeder Class' Aircraft Carriers capable of carrying and launching 80 jet aircraft following the entry into service and success of the first German carrier the Graf Zepplin in July 1941 and the scrapping of it's sister ship the Strasser for the war effort.

Kriegsmarine Inventory 1946​

After more than 48 years of American dominance, the Philippines attains full independence as 3rd Republic, Manuel A. Roxas is 5th President of the Philippines.

10th July 1946 - A checkpoint in Dier ez-Zur is bombed by Syrian nationalists killing several French soldiers and two Syrian Citizens.

21st July 1946 - An Irgun bomb explodes in Jerusalem due to secretive talks between Jews and Britain to consolidate the state of Israel.

22nd July 1946 - King David Hotel bombing: The Irgun bombs the King David Hotel (headquarters of the British civil and military administration) in Jerusalem, killing 90.

25th July 1946 - In the first underwater test of the atomic bomb, the surplus USS Saratoga is sunk near Bikini Atoll in the Pacific Ocean, when the United States detonates the 'Baker' device during Operation Crossroads.

In the last mass lynching in the United States, a mob of white men shoot and kill two African-American couples near Moore's Ford Bridge in Georgia.

1st August 1946 - The Fulbright Program, a system of U.S. international educational exchange scholarships, is established.

The Scandinavian Airlines System is founded as a consortium of the flag carriers of Sweden, Finland, Iceland and Norway.

10th August 1946 - German rocket engineers secretly perform the first test of the 'A12' rocket theoretically capable of achieving a low earth orbit. The rocket survives the first two stages before exploding at roughly 230 miles in altitude.

16th August 1946 - Violence between Muslims and Hindus in Calcutta leads to the arrest of 430 Indians after the murder of 546 Indians. British garrison forces successfully intervene to halt the violence before it becomes uncontrollable.

2nd September 1946 - The Interim Government of India takes charge, with Jawaharlal Nehru as Vice President, as part of the transition from the British Raj to full independence for India, Kashmir and Pakistan.

4th September 1946 - City of Tashkent in the Independent Kirghiz Soviet Socialist Republic falls to forces of Shahmurad Alim Khan, a former soviet infantryman and the rightful heir to the former Emirate of Bukhara who disavowed his father in 1929, who declares the city the capital of a new Turkmen People's Republic of which he is President. Premier Molotov of the RSFSR refuses to recognise the state which is recognised only by the Republic of China, Turkey and the Kingdom of Iran.

Martial law imposed in the city of Bombay by the British garrisom following moderate violence between religious groups in the city.

19th September 1946 - Council of Europe established in Berlin to act as a unified body to discuss European issues between the German, Hungarian, Italian, Bulgarian, Burgundian, Romanian and Finnish Governments.

24th September 1946 - Cathay Pacific Airways is founded in Hong Kong by American Roy Farrell and Australian Sydney de Kantzow.

28th September 1946 - Ben Chifley's Labor Government is re-elected with a reduced majority, defeating the Liberal/Country Coalition led by former Prime Minister Robert Menzies. This is the first occasion where a Labor government successfully won two elections in a row on a federal level, albeit with a swing against them; among the casualties include former Prime Minister Frank Forde. This is also the first election contested by the newly formed Liberal Party, which replaced the United Australia Party as the main centre-right political party in Australia

1st October 1946 - Mensa, an international organization for people with a high intelligence quotient (IQ), is founded by Roland Berrill, an Australian-born lawyer, and Dr Lancelot Ware, an English biochemist and lawyer, in Oxford.

6th October 1946 - Sweden's Prime Minister Per Albin Hansson dies in office of a heart attack.

10th October 1946 - Region of Bengal placed under martial law by British forces following the killing of several hundred Hindus by Muslim mobs.

11th October 1946 - After a few days of vacancy, the Swedish premiership is taken over by Tage Erlander.

19th October 1946 - Garmr or the American dubbed 'H-1/Hitler-1' explodes in Northern Siberia marking the first successful German nuclear test.

20th October 1946 - Representatives of the United Kingdom, United States, Republic of China, 'Union of Soviet Socialist Republics' (US Recognised Zhukov Government) and Shahdom of Iran meet to discuss migration crisis in Tehran.

23rd October 1946 - The United Nations General Assembly convenes for the first time, at an auditorium in Flushing, Queens, New York City.

27th October 1946 - Tehran Conference representatives agree to proposed plan.

1st November 1946 - German nuclear bombing of Soviet Capital Novosibirsk, Premier Molotov and majority of Soviet Leadership killed alongside approx 500,000 Soviet Citizens.

Hitler issues Fuhrer Directive activating Croatian SS elements in Belgrade to assassinate Yugoslav King Peter II.

2nd November 1946 - President Dewey officially announces a doctrine of containment against the German Reich.

4th November 1946 - Iran suspends all trade with the German Reich. Germany condemns the decision as the act of a puppet state to the British.

UNESCO is established as a specialized agency of the United Nations.

5th November 1946 - Democratic Party makes gains in the House in Midterm elections and takes control of the Senate.

10th November 1946 - Chinese Communist stronghold of Yan'an falls to Nationalist forces following a rapid and successful offensive.

12th November 1946 - A truce is declared between Indonesian nationalist troops and the Dutch army in Indonesia.

14th November 1946 - King Peter II of Yugoslavia seriously wounded in a suicide bombing attack by Emanuel Kovac, a Croatian Great War veteran who's family had been killed in fighting during the Croatian Insurgency (May 1944 - December 1946) by Yugoslav Army shelling. Kovac suspected to be an agent of the German SS Sicherheitsdienst.

17th November 1946 - Yugoslavian forces begin counter-offensive against Croatian Ustashe forces in the Sava Banovia of Croatia.

18th November 1946 - King Peter II of Yugoslavia dies from his wounds at his home in Belgrade, Alexander II succeeds him aged one year and four months. Hungarian Government issues diplomatic protest against Yugoslavia claiming the shelling of the Hungarian border village of Doroslovo by Yugoslav forces, Yugoslavia rejects claims and refuses Hungarian mediation in the conflict.

19th November 1946 - Hungary announces it's intention to launch a police action in northern Yugoslavia to quell violence on the Hungarian-Yugoslav border. Yugoslavia accuses Hungary of intending to invade Yugoslavia in the name of Germany.

20th November 1946 - Hungarian forces cross the Yugoslavian border as part of a police action against the Yugoslavian - Croatian War.

22nd November 1946 - Hungarian forces withdraw following heavy losses to Yugoslavian army forces and Croatian insurgents.

23rd November 1946 - Hungarian Government issues a request to the German Government to restore order in Yugoslavia, Germany accepts.

Vietnamese riot in Haiphong and clash with French troops. The French cruiser Suffren opens fire, killing 6,000 Vietnamese.

The Workers' Party of Korea is founded.

25th November 1946 - German forces enter Yugoslavia through the German and Hungarian borders while Romanian forces advance into the northern Banat region and Bulgarian forces advance into the southern Serbia (Pčinja, Jablanica and Pirot).

27th November 1946 - Belgrade falls to German and Hungarian forces.

Jawaharlal Nehru appeals to the United States and the German Reich to end nuclear testing and to start nuclear disarmament, stating that such an action would "save humanity from the ultimate disaster."

30th November 1946 - Yugoslavia entirely occupied by German, Hungarian, Romanian and Bulgarian forces. Germany announces the establishment of a military administration in the country until January 1947. Western allies condemn occupation, Spain, Italy and Romania back German action.

1st December 1946 - Miguel Alemán Valdés takes office as President of Mexico.

2nd December 1946 - The International Whaling Commission was signed in Washington, D.C. to "provide for the proper conservation of whale stocks and thus make possible the orderly development of the whaling industry".

4th December 1946 - Germany, Bulgaria and Turkey sign the Treaty of Baku. Azerbaijan is established as a devolved joint Turkish - German administered region of the German Reich led by Muhammad Amin Rasulzadeh from Baku. Turkey officially joins the Council of Europe, Muslim majority German occupied territories in the Caucuses are transferred to Turkey along with parts of Eastern Thrace along with the former state of Armenia.

10th December 1946 - French Foreign Minister Darlan announces France's ambitions to recover it's lost territories and refuse official recognition of the German and Burgundian Governments.

11th December 1946 - UNICEF (the United Nations Children's Emergency Fund) is founded.

22nd December 1946 - The Havana Conference begins between U.S. organized crime bosses in Havana, Cuba.

28th December 1946 - Republic of China officially declares suzerainty over Mongolia and dispatches forces to assume control of the state following Tehran Conference agreements, the Provisional Council of the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic recognises Chinese claims.

 

[TheReformer]

And FINALLY we advance into 1947

 

[MaxGerke01]

And FINALLY we advance into 1947

Looking forward to it.

 

[Erin Go Bragh]

This is a great thread, but one has to suspend disbelief at it's beginning.

Even after a war against a denuded Czechoslovakia, there is NO WAY the Wehrmacht had enough tanks to do a 1938 version of 1940. No way.

 

[TheReformer]

This is a great thread, but one has to suspend disbelief at it's beginning.

Even after a war against a denuded Czechoslovakia, there is NO WAY the Wehrmacht had enough tanks to do a 1938 version of 1940. No way.

Yeah i get that, tbh as you can probably see by reading it I've not been overly satisfied with how i started the whole thing. Should have put more thought into it at the time, especially as the kinda 'base idea' of the whole thing is Britain and the US have a standoff that ends with Britain being distracted and paranoid af about the yanks, and thus doesn't pay much attention to Germany. Either way despite slightly regretting the start we're past that now so i shan't try to amend it anymore so as not to confuse everyone! I'm glad you've enjoyed it though, my main focus after all is the cold war which i am better at now thankfully I've created the geopolitical conditions i wanted!

The Return​

With the return of the Man in the High Castle to our screens again yesterday on Amazon Prime I've been somewhat re-inspired to get this going again. Admittedly i had a big break there, partly because i wasn't sure if i wanted to continue this or not due to my disliking of the very start of it in hindsight and the fact it takes a lot of time (and tbh is also really depressing at certain points - these nazis were... well, unkind). As i am sure some of you will be pleased to hear though instead of starting a new first world war timeline about Germany winning the 1918 Spring Offensive i have decided to continue this, mainly because we already have an amazing work by Rast on that matter and i know more about the Third rather than Second Reich. But anyway, without much further ado i give you 1947.

The 15th Year​

In January 1947 Germany faced three major geopolitical 'theatres of operations'. The first major front could be found in the west on the French border where the Ordensstaat of Burgundy, still unrecognised by most of the world including now France, was facing an almost perennial insurgency against German and Burgundian forces. Military patrols of the less organised and disciplined Burgundian Army bore the brunt of the attacks for the most part as they largely were the forces tasked with pacifying the countryside except for on occasional operations aimed at clearing out major strongholds. German forces tended to barricade themselves into the various cities of the Burgundian state, often as a result brutally pacifying the local population, or sit on the Franco-Burgundian border in case of a surprise attack by the weakened but capable French. In the west Germany found itself constantly challenged by the British and French who would spare no effort in arming the Burgundian French and Belgian partisans though air drops, boats or by just smuggling the weapons out of the British redoubt in Calais the Germans kindly gave them in the Stockholm Treaty. Germany too was subject to a sustained effort by the British to legally obstruct German shipping wherever possible, encouraging British fishing vessels to ram or harass German fishing vessels for example in order to effectively force the Germans to be aggressive or back down - of which they always did the latter. This could be seen in the Atlantic where British vessels would board or request papers from merchant vessels under the German flag, in the Mediterranean where the Suez Canal had been closed for German vessels and on the West African coast where German convoys, often carrying Jews expelled from Europe, escorted Kriegsmarine light cruisers would be shadowed by British vessels. In this western sphere the Germans were adapting but still facing major problems over social cohesion, the Germans after all had totally de-populated some areas of Burgundy and shipped in millions of Germans to fill the gaps which created a strange mash up of German, French and Belgian peoples in a country that shouldn't really exist and had no forms of devolved Government. French and Belgian civillians found it impossible to get into or affect their nation's Government due to the dictatorship established under the 'German Model' in the country by Statthalter Léon Degrelle, the only way being through membership of the SS which few Frenchmen or Belgians found themselves keen to sign up for. The result of this being that the French and Belgian citizens in the new country felt they were in the wrong place and not a member of their national community, even if they were not overly bothered by who governed them really. This created a lot of alienation and continued a feeling of occupation rather than a new sense of nationhood despite Goebbels best efforts to create a national identity for Burgundy. Further measures clearly would be needed.

The second theatre was the east where despite German efforts to pacify the vast wastes of Russia through imprisonment of millions in massive camps across the country, so far this had served the purpose of rebuilding - and in many cases de-constructing - the newfound lands. But despite this economic boon for the Reich, partisans still constantly emerged from the forests and swamps to wreak havoc on the German occupiers. If anything over time while the partisans had become fewer in number as food stockpiles ran out and they were slowly killed off over time by the far more technologically advanced Germans who located them with new scout Helicopters and high altitude Jet aircraft, they had instead become much more effective at their jobs. The worst of this being when they constantly attacked rail lines, creating an almost endless job of repairing the infrastructure that effectively kept German forces in Russia alive. The only place where this was far less of a problem was in western Ukraine and Crimea, now Reichsgau Gottenberg, where the geographical advantages of the relatively small peninsula meant any partisan activity was rapidly extinguished. The regional capital, Theodorichchafen, was rapidly drawing in German settlers for it's better weather and strong economic prospects for tourism, as well as it's strong travel links through the eastern autobahn and the new small civil air service operating out of the city under Lufthansa. The German Army, after years of fighting, had further cleared fully the newly dubbed Generalbezirks of Niederneper, Greuthungland, Oberneper, Ost Wolhynien and Wolhynien Podolien - much of western Ukraine. These areas were too slowly becoming more highly populated now that the local slave population had largely been shipped out east, especially among former soldiers of the Reich travelling to the new lands they had pacified with their families. Many of these former officers and soldiers had taken residence in the old towns left by their former occupants or established farms, something they were highly encouraged to do with the backing of vast state funding and technical specialists to educate them. Land was divided equally in 'lots' drawn up by the SS following their 'doomsday book' style economic assessment of the area, each lot was to be guaranteed equal land value even if not all were of equal size and were available to anyone in the Reich either for purchase or ownership through a series of planned payments to the Reich through produced goods and additional taxes. The result of course being in some cases businessmen would come and buy up vast swathes of land for personal fiefdoms they could run akin to something in medieval times, and then of course buy themselves a handful of slaves to manage their estates - often driven on by ex-soldiers. Alfried Krupp's personal estate spanned the entire coastline of Generalbezirk Niederneper (Just north of Gotenland) with his personal residence being found in Neustuttgart, formerly the small town of Bolharka.

The rest of Russia was experiencing very different circumstances to the relative success of the south. Partisans still attacked German forces leading to the total death of some 170,000 German soldiers in 1946 - still high despite a decline on 1945. Work camps across Russia, especially in the east, were still occasionally sprung open too leading to the escape of thousands of civilians, especially in Reichskommissariat Moskowien which remained under very unstable and under limited control. To make matters worse for Reichskommissar Siegfried Kasche in Twer (formerly Tver), appointed in 1942, the Russian forces under Zhukov's command were becoming increasingly more bold in their attempts to inflict damage across the border. While the German army was garrisoned the border across a region identified mainly as the 'exclusion zone' under a military administration they struggled to fully contain such a vast border against often small and well trained specialist teams that knew of the quick and intricate paths across the Urals, this was especially true in the North. These teams would often advance for weeks past the exclusion zone, usually not even attacking the front line forces, before wreaking havoc among the Civilian Government's administrative centres and garrison forces or destroying vital infrastructure that was being used to fuel and supply the front line forces. This currently was reasonably controllable, but it could quickly spiral out of control if a a solution could not be found. Thankfully for many of the German soldiers on the frontline by the winter of 1946 Germany had finally solved their winter clothing problems that had hampered the forces in the Urals for the last four years, especially now supply infrastructure was somewhat improved through new rail systems and vast air supply missions - despite partisans best efforts to stop both. The Zhukov Government however did not even consider the war against Germany to have ended, merely to have been postponed while they consolidated their rule throughout the end of 1946 and the beginning of 1947. The result being Germany now understood Russian strategic goals dating back to the 15th Century over their long desire to control the vast Siberian steppe out of fear of a power there developing to challenge them. Germany now faced a united challenge in the East as Zhukov consolidated his rule over the various warring factions in Russia following the destruction of Novosibirsk, while also facing the clear threat of the Allies in the west. Zhukov was not a huge problem now, but he could become one later.

Some measures in the east had been taken however to reaffirm control of the region, this was notable in the Baltic states where what remained of the local population had now largely been granted Honorary German citizenship after five years of genetic analysis and racial registration of those who had not been deported. The former city of Leningrad, renamed Bismarkshafn after being reduced to rubble during the war, was abandoned by Germany in the minor treaty of Riga where the Finnish Government represented by General Mannerheim accepted Finnish annexation of the city formally for the first time in history. German propaganda proclaimed this as the rightful return of the Finnish and Scandinavian people to the city of Nevanlinna, as it was immediately renamed, the Swedes had built before Russian annexation under Peter the Great, though honestly few Germans really cared all that much. Germany had essentially decided the city was not worth holding due to the unrest among the local population, the sheer cost needed to repair it and the general hesitation of German citizens to even consider travelling to the city due to it's northern climate and lack of economic prospects. The Baltic states too were developing nicely under their new rulers, though admittedly some anti-Government sentiment remained under the local populace that had been allowed to remain. Germany had attempted to re-brand themselves as liberators during the war against the USSR but such a rebranding had somewhat collapsed when they then just remained and annexed the region much like the soviets did, especially when they then exported hundreds of thousands of locals to the east. Instead now Germany had taken to a policy of long term cultural annexation by drawing on all historical Germanic ties between the Balts and Germans and presenting the annexation as a final union between the Germanic and Baltic peoples that had been long overdue. This was surprisingly popular among Lithuanians and Latvians, but less so under Estonians who were culturally closer to the Finns. Over time however Germany aimed to erase all memory of past independence for the region and slowly teach out the local languages as the more Germanic youth took over.

Finally in the Kaukasus resistance to German rule from the native peoples had all but died following the German decision in the early war to treat the locals as friends and with respect. In fact by contrast yto the rest of Russia where millions had been enslaved, many of the locals here in the Caucuses were left to their own devices. This however did not carry over to Lavrentiy Beria's Caucasian Liberation Army that still occupied much of the North Georgian mountains where they launched probing attacks against the now reduced German presence there. Germany had quickly found a solution however through their newly devolved administrations in Georgia, Azerbaijan and other territories by establishing German Auxiliary Brigades much akin to the SS' various internationally recruited units. As a result units such as the Chechen Legion, the Georgian Legion, the Ossetian Legion and finally the Dagestan Legion formed and were quickly deployed against Beria after training. In doing so Germany incidentally gained a strong military advantage over the mostly Russian Caucasian Liberation Army as many of these new recruits came from local families and knew the land and more importantly how to use it much better than any German military planner or strategist. The Dagestan Legion for example was largely a cavalry unit. Needless to say Beria's troops, while very battle hardened, now faced a much more significant challenge then previously thought, especially as supplies slowly dwindled due to the lack of ability to produce many weapons or much ammunition, and the lack of any clear allies to support them in the region. Especially following Turkey's decision to join the German Axis.

The final major theatre for Germany could be found in the south where Germany faced two major problems, the first being Mussolini. The man for a long time had been hailed by the German press as the one true friend to the Reich, especially following the fall of Japan, yet this friendship was merely one of convenience. Mussolini was still eternally dissatisfied with the Germans over their refusal to return any land from France to Italy in the Treaty of Stockholm, despite the Italians not actually even being in the war against the Allies. The Germans had of course compensated for this by supporting Italy's claims over Greece and parts of Yugoslavia, but despite Italian support for the Reich's intervention in Yugoslavia last year Germany continually now rejected attempts by Mussolini to establish Croatia not as a German satellite but as an Italian protectorate state under an Italian Prince. Hitler did not care for Mussolini's demands and intended to establish Ante Pavelic or another Croat figure as the dictator of the Croats later this year, but many Italians in public and Government found such a suggestion insulting. Mussolini had long believed that Croatia was unquestionably part of Italy's sphere, along with the entire dalmatian coast, in fact for some time he had considered Austria to be part of his sphere too. Yet despite all of these claims the Italians were barely holding onto their current empire, and Hitler was fully aware. The Greeks had been an especially large thorn in Italy's side for some time now, their insurgency seemed endless and was being beautifully orchestrated by the British who supplied arms and even on the ground military advisors to support the effort which was mainly concentrated in the north among the mountains. The current favourite Greek tactic would be to simply drive around the countryside in trucks heavily laden with alcoholic beverages, thus often passing bands of Italian troops or garrisons who would almost always try to seize the alcohol off the Greek driver or buy it off them, only for the trucks to be lined with explosives. The result was often bloody. The damage done by the Greeks had actually become so bad by January 1947 that the Germans were seriously planning to just invade the Italian occupied Balkans to take responsibility of the country for fear that even a small Greek revolt could take Athens and request UN Intervention, thereby opening a massive new flank against the Axis powers in the south.

A second concern on the southern front was Bulgaria who despite being incredibly satisfied with their vast Serbian, Greek and Romanian gains from their alliance with Germany remained concerned about Germany's racial policy and a perception of increasing control over their national affairs. This was especially notable due to Germany's effective handing over of parts of eastern Thrace to Turkey as part of the Treaty of Baku. On the matter of Jewish deportation Bulgaria too had been in an effective stand off with the Nazi Government since 1942 due to Tsar Boris III's refusal to bend to German demands that ended with him essentially flat out refusing to ever do so. The Tsar had died in October of 1943 following a meeting with Hitler, who flat out did not like the Tsar, from heart failure in a very suspicious series of events that many in the public considered to be a poisoning. He was succeeded by his son Simeon II who continued his father's policy on the advice of his Government on Jewish matters by essentially forcing them into work on internal infrastructural projects and claiming their vitality for that effort, this was becoming harder and harder to justify however. Germany continued to press for Jewish deportation despite his father's firmness on the issue, and now after years of such pressure the Bulgarian public who liked their new King were growing tired of the German demands on their country. Germany therefore started to fear that were Greece to break out into open rebellion and request UN support, Bulgaria may well recognise that or even switch allegiances to the western Allies.

Romania too was becoming an increasing concern for the Reich, not because of it's establishment disliking the Germans but because it's people disliked the Germans. Years of German use and abuse of Romanian oil due to Germany's lack of avaliable reserves had dampened the pro-German sentiment in the country and it looked as if despite Germany's territorial concessions to the Romanians from the USSR their people may soon demand better rates for the oil they provided, especially following the dramatic drop in oil prices in Europe last year in 1946 as a result of the completion of the Trans-Germanic Baku Pipeline from the east. This sentiment, much like that of Hungary which itself was experiencing some level of social unrest, was controllable for now but would need addressing over the next year to ensure stability on Germany's southern flank.

It was clear Germany faced some significant challenges at the start of 1947. Meanwhile the Allies in the west and even more so in the east continued to consolidate and reconstruct.

 

[TheReformer]

From Our Perspective​

The signing of the North Atlantic Treaty on January 10th 1947 was a major step in the right direction for British and American foreign policy. The German threat had rapidly become apparent through German action in Yugoslavia against the Croat insurgency and intelligence reports suggesting further action by Germany may soon follow. The treaty promised mutual defence between the western partners of the United States, Canada, France, the United Kingdom and the Netherlands in a defensive alliance seemingly aimed directly at halting German aggression. This was a key change in western foreign policy as for the first time since the build-up to the first world war several major powers had formed a direct coalition against German expansionism, and thus directly against German Geopolitical aims. Germany after all was a revisionist state aimed at establishing not only a greater German nation, but more so a new world order of race-based geopolitics. This was a common misunderstanding among the people of western states, Germany sought not just to expand their power but to put themselves in a position where they could act as the primary world power unable to be challenged by states such as France and the UK, or even the United States. Unlike the threat of Communism that emerged during the 1920's when the west feared an ideological overturning of the hierarchical, imperialist and states based world order in favour of an internationalist and revolutionary order the threat of Nazism was not one of the spread of ideas but more the resergence of certain nationalist sentiments or ethnic states. For example the ideas of Nazism, not necessarily even Fascism, were becoming surprisingly popular in India following the decision by the British Government to partition the state along religious lines. Among those circles that considered India to be a unified state, including the newly formed dominion of Pakistan, individuals like Vinayak Damodar Savarkar and M. S. Golwalkar advocated against partition, instead taking the view that Muslims in India were no better than the Jews or Slavs in Germany and eastern Europe, and that Hindus ought to 'reclaim' their ethnic nation due to their superiority over the Islamic 'potential traitors' now taking their lands. Views like these were key to the difference between the threat of Communism and Nazism. Communism sought to unite all people behind the ideas that regardless of where they were from they were all equal in the fight against the elite, Nazism by contrast diverged dependent on where it emerged. In Germany Nazism exposed the ideas of Anti-Semitism, while by contrast in India the extreme Hindu Nationalists in the area were rarely anti-semitic and instead just Islamophobic due to the differing circumstances in the state.

In slowly beginning to understand the push factors towards Nazism and Fascism, Fascism having in many cases entirely different push-factors to Nazism, the western allies and especially the United States began to formulate ways to combat it. That is why NATO was established in 1947 at the urging of US Secretary of State John Foster Dulles, though the man himself had long had reservations about the idea of American control over world affairs - a view that was challenged by Germany's intervention in Yugoslavia which convinced him of the importance of US leadership in opposing their world view. From Dulles' and Dewey's perspective the best way to establish the new liberal and democratic world order that the United States sought to establish now they had become the dominant non-imperial western power was to contain the ideas of Nazism and Fascism and push for an increasing liberalisation of global politics and policy instead. This was supported by the UK despite it's colonial past due to it's Labour Government under Clement Attlee, but faced significant opposition by the French who's own Government's foreign policy perspective on global affairs was one of recovery of what had already been lost through maintaining their global empire and the economic advantages it brought and not further demoralising the French national spirit by losing even further colonial possessions. This created a rift of priorities in NATO from day one that would later create further problems, especially on the view over how best to deal with Germany. From the perspective of the United States the policy of 'containing' the Reich and preventing it's expansion, which as far as the Americans were concerned was the Reich's primary objective, through the creation of a powerful global alliance of states willing to back each other up was the best means of containing Germany. By strangling it's internal economy, limiting it's military expansionism which it had used during the war to recover it's highly indebted economy and ensuring it had no friends on the world stage to facilitate German economic or military expansion the US believed Germany could be kept locked into Europe while the US built the new world order around it. Effectively America planned to put Germany in a jar, lock the lid and then do what it wished everywhere except Central and Eastern Europe.

The entry of the Dutch into the treaty however infuriated the German Government on the basis that under the Treaty of Stockholm the country had allowed to remain free and not under German occupation due to the wishes of the British who believed that Dutch neutrality was vital to ensure a German surprise invasion of the United Kingdom was limited or not possible. Germany had accepted this perspective due to their wish to achieve peace to focus on the eastern front, but in doing so had not considered the prospect of they themselves needing a buffer with the west out of fear of an invasion of Germany. Dutch entry into NATO however now put Germany in the position they had allowed Britain to avoid, they now had an immediate threat on their western border, and more importantly one that was guaranteed support by the other great powers in the event of a conflict. German foreign policy planners found this move to be essentially unacceptable on the behalf of the Dutch Government on the basis that the whole point of the war in the west was to ensure the creation of a buffer between Germany and the western powers in a similar manner to Russia's annexation of Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic in order to create a buffer between Europe and their homelands. Thus through the creation of Burgundy Germany had secured their industrial and cultural heartlands in he Ruhr and Rhineland, these areas were no longer secure however with the Dutch now challenging the Germans from their direct border with the German heartland. Germany, along with their Burgundian and Italian allies, therefore on January 11th issued a ban on Dutch imports to the Reich and a ban on exports from Germany to the Netherlands until the Netherlands provided legally binding assurances that no foreign forces would be deployed on Dutch soil during peacetime. This was expected by the Dutch who had committed to NATO's common armed forces leadership policy with the United States upon signing the treaty and discussed the matter with President Dewey in advance. For the Dutch the membership of the bloc was a strong deterrent against the Germans, but they accepted that foreign forces being so close to Germany's heartlands would never be accepted and thus expected some kind of economic response due to the significance of exports to and imports from Germany on the Dutch economy. Thus the Dutch accepted German demands the next day, as had been planned with the US State Dept, in a move that surprised and pleased the Reich and reaffirmed the German belief that they could still command authority in the west over their neighbours. The reality however was quite different. The Dutch had instead agreed with the United States on the proposed policy of 'rapid deployment' in the event of hostilities by US forces. This would be facilitated by divisions stationed in the United Kingdom which in the case of hostilities would deploy by sea and air to the Netherlands within the space of 24 hours and arrive to find vast stores of weapons awaiting them that the Dutch would secretly allow to be stationed on their soil. As a result these American forces could transport to the Netherlands with very little equipment and arrive fully trained and capable of picking up pre-positioned weapons and marching into battle within 48 hours during which the Dutch would be capable of holding off any German advance.

Germany, unaware of these backroom plans, revoked their embargo at midnight on the 13th under the mistaken belief that they had achieved a foreign policy triumph. In reality they had created a potentially more significant threat on their western border than they had previously considered. Unfortunately for the United States however, despite the cunning plans of the State Department with the Netherlands they had not fully considered the ramifications of boosting Germany's confidence in diplomatic affairs. The consequences of this would emerge later.

Meanwhile in the second major US geopolitical theatre, the Pacific, the United States was beginning the difficult and awkward process of formulating a policy on Indochina and the Dutch East Indies. In both colonial possessions there had been significant and popular rebellions against their colonial masters, the Vietnamese under Ho Chi Minh and his Viet Minh, and the Indonesians under Sukarno. Both rebellions had come as a result of former colonial states refusing any prospect of independence for the local peoples, and both rebellions were popular among the local people but vehemently opposed by the controllers of the region, both of whom being important US allies. While the Dutch East Indies were less of a challenge as the Dutch were for the most part willing to discuss political change and local self-determination, Indochina by contrast was a mess. France had no intention of letting go of their colonial possessions, and furthermore had very little intention of granting any meaningful or locally accepted autonomy to the region. The Vietnamese as a result had erupted into open rebellion following refusal by the Petain administration to discuss possible changes with the Viet Minh in 1946, instead seizing several small towns in the north and central regions of Vietnam and Laos. In terms of military concern the US did not see this as any kind of threat, the French would almost certainly batter the rebels into submission, the matter was more one of a geopolitical threat. Vietnam was not strategically important on the grand scheme of things, but a perennial war there would challenge the assertion that the United States was defending a world order encouraging self determination and democracy - especially as Ho Chi Minh had personally written to President Dewey asking the United States to support an independent Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia. The main question for Dewey and Dulles lay around Ho Chi Minh's ideological positioning, he was after all a Communist who only a decade ago would have been considered to be a threat due to the global expansion of communism - which itself was a threat to democracy. Furthermore the US was concerned about the prospect of angering the French, though admittedly the French were not capable of acting out on their own for fear of German invasion or plain removal of economic support through Marshall aid from the United States. This put the US in a strong position to dictate terms of the new reality in South East Asia to both the Dutch and French, even though the US had as of yet not acted as a direct policy maker for other countries. President Dewey therefore took an unprecedented move in January 1947 and wrote back to Ho Chi Minh stating his belief that Independence for the Indochinese nations was a matter worth discussion, but reaffirming that any self-determination in that region must be done under the people's guidance through the establishment of true and meaningful democracies in the region via plebiscite. This was not a clear US commitment to anything, but Dewey felt comfortable exploring his options.

The Petain administration were not informed of Dewey's decision to write back to Ho, as far as they were concerned the US was thankfully leaving the matter to the French to decide, but they were aware of the need to present some kind of visible response to the rebellions that would make France look like the 'good guy' on the world stage. Petain's Government therefore decided to focus on the rebellion's ideological connotations by highlighting the Communist views of much of the rebellion's leadership, portraying the rebellion as a 'socialist takeover' of legitimate South East Asian governments. The key balance to the French strategy was using this argument against Socialism emerging in the region while equally legitimising the continued French control of the region. To an extent the latter was justifiable simply due to the rebellion, but the argument still left the world media asking how France was much worse than the Germans by occupying a land that their own Government had legitimised as being colonial territories with no clear intention to leave or change the status quo in the region to give the locals representation. Petain's Government therefore needed a justification that legitimised French forces remaining in Vietnam while equally postponing independence for the region by as long as possible, all while the violence merely escalated. This was in sharp contrast to the Dutch East Indies where the significantly more stable Dutch Government, the Netherlands having been only lightly touched by war and having received no unfavourable terms at Stockholm, had easily cracked down on the Indonesian rebellion that followed Japanese surrender. Unlike Vietnam, Indonesia was actually of significant geopolitical interest to the United States due to it's geographical placement in Asia as the gateway to the Indian Ocean, its vast national resources and it's proximity to British colonies in Malaya and Sarawak. The US and UK therefore had been keenly pressing for a resolution to the war by mid 1946, however by January of 1947 the Dutch - who viewed Sukarno's Government as Japanese collaborators - had all but won the war after Operation Product in 1946. This put the Dutch in a strong position to effectively win the conflict entirely, an outcome for which they had planned extensively by establishing the State of Borneo in 1946 along with the State of East Indonesia, or the 'Great East'.

In the eyes of the US it would be a significant mistake to not allow the rebel forces in the region any say by essentially crushing the rebellion and then just redrawing the country in a dutch vision. The Dutch Government however felt comfortable with the new state they intended to design; a federal state in Indonesia made up of several highly autonomous states in Sumatra, Java, Borneo and the Great East headed up by Queen Wilhelmina as the ceremonial head of state. Furthermore the state of Dutch New Guinea would be fully retained as an overseas colony of the Netherlands for the foreseeable future and Indonesia subjected to the principle of the Dutch holding most favoured nation status for trade. This peace process was already in motion, and with the Dutch now aligning with the US in Europe the end of the conflict was expected by the end of 1947 following what observers expected would be a swift, bloody and decisive Dutch military victory while Sukarno's Government sat and watched from exile. While the United States had reservations about this plan they were not in a position to do anything, and furthermore with Germany expending vast diplomatic resources attempting to cosy up to the Dutch in Europe by supporting their action in the East Indies and offering favourable trading terms, despite the short spat in January, the US could not risk letting the Reich out of it's box with that kind of diplomatic victory. America had more important areas to focus on, notably Russia, China and Norway - the latter of whom was keen to join NATO but feared doing so out of concern about German direct or indirect intervention before anything became official. The United States had a lot of manoeuvres to complete, and it seemed 1947 would be if anything even more important to the new order than 1946.

 

[Gonzo]

Interesting that Dewey decides to respond to Ho letter, that letter from Dewey could have major butterflies down the years (Ho was not anti-American, for instance his speech after the declaration of independence of the Dem. Rep. of Vietnam quoted parts of the US Declaration of Independence verbatim). It is also amusing that another Dewey could have an effect on Vietnam ITTL. A. Peter Dewey, the first American fatality in Indochina in 1945, who grasped the situation that was going to unfold there a lot quicker than many other observers. Perhaps he avoids death ITTL? I suppose an ideal situation here would be one where Bao Dai keeps the throne as a figurehead while Ho has virtually all the power at the head of an independent Vietnam. Regarding the French strategy, I can't see it being anything different to what it was initially OTL. Using their 'superior' numbers and firepower which could very well fail like it did for them OTL. Yet unlike OTL the left in France here seems to have been completely neutered until probably the early sixties at the earliest - so I doubt we'll be seeing any sort of decolonisation, especially here (*cough* and Algeria *cough*) until the ultraconservative government is weaker in Paris. I suppose there's a brief window where Petain's health is failing before he's replaced by someone, Bidault I guess? Bidault, I'd predict, would be a bit more moderate than Petain (a Christian democrat versus a conservative Catholic), yet when it comes to issues like Algeria and Vietnam, I doubt he'll be in any sort of mood or position to clamber out. The mention of Norway at the end makes me think, who is the Prime Minister there at the moment?

 

[SkylineDreamer]

Please don't make the Dutch won on DEI, it reduces the balance on the ongoing Cold War.

Btw, Marvellous TL!

 

[ReconGuy02]

US should take a blow(maybe two-three), and wipe out Germany with sunshine. Thats how to deal with Germany in this case. Until MAD is existing they should do this.

 

[EternalDawn]

Most people always see a total victory of the Nazi as something that will lead to the German Reich being *evil for evah*

Even if they never lose, even if they rewrite history entirely, sooner or later their society is bound to change to a more moderate stance (the most interesting path and something no one ever writes about), or collapse entirely (cliché that everyone always likes to write about when the Reich initially won).

Personally, a scenario where the Nazi win, and they are not the evil guy forever, but instead evolve to a *more moderate* stance over time would be interesting to read. Especially because according to some of their plans, the future generations of the Reich would have born in a world where the Reich was already victorious and all the bad they did rewrite or hidden away from history.

Sadly the rules of this forum are really bound to interpretation on this matter because some snowflake could see it as approving of what Hitler did or some other nonsense like that. I am also not good enough of a writer to pull off something like that, but it would be an interesting concept.

It would be nice to see them not collapsing entirely, but after reading some of the latest parts, I have to say that it seems headed that way.

 

[CalBear]

Most people always see a total victory of the Nazi as something that will lead to the German Reich being *evil for evah*

Even if they never lose, even if they rewrite history entirely, sooner or later their society is bound to change to a more moderate stance (the most interesting path and something no one ever writes about), or collapse entirely (cliché that everyone always likes to write about when the Reich initially won).

Personally, a scenario where the Nazi win, and they are not the evil guy forever, but instead evolve to a *more moderate* stance over time would be interesting to read. Especially because according to some of their plans, the future generations of the Reich would have born in a world where the Reich was already victorious and all the bad they did rewrite or hidden away from history.

Sadly the rules of this forum are really bound to interpretation on this matter because some snowflake could see it as approving of what Hitler did or some other nonsense like that. I am also not good enough of a writer to pull off something like that, but it would be an interesting concept.

It would be nice to see them not collapsing entirely, but after reading some of the latest parts, I have to say that it seems headed that way.

There is absolutely nothing in the history of the Reich, or in the history of its mortal enemy, the Soviet Union (which was never quite at the evil level of the Reich, mainly because Stalin was a paranoid sociopath while his successors were just routine brutal kleptocrats), that indicates that the Reich would ever mellow. It might well stop killing million of Slavs, Jews, Roma, Gays, and whatever other hated minority was being wiped out, but that would simply be due to running out of victims.

If anything the Reich would follow the general arc of the USSR, clinging to a discredited political ideology as the country gradually imploded thanks to gross mismanagement and lack of potential new conquests to suck dry.

 

[sloreck]

Absent external force, there is no way the Nazi regime would ever "mellow". Sure once you had killed off the "worst" Untermenschen (Jews, Gypsies, and those Slavs and others in excess of slave needs) you'd still have the slave classes. You wouldn't need the death camps, but there would still be concentration camps for those who dissented or were criminals. What would happen to slaves who got out of line would be ugly, and the equivalent of PETA would be happy as new drugs and procedures would be tested on human subjects, not helpless bunny rabbits and lab rats. The Nazis were educating the youth in the racial ideology at the base of the evil from toddler age, after a generation or two there would be no voices of parents or grandparents raised before Nazi victory to moderate those things taught at school and examples everywhere.

If you think 50-100 years after victory there would be Germans (or others) asking themselves "gee, maybe we should not have killed all those Jews/Roma/etc", I can only hope you are living in a state where what you smoke is legal.

 

[The Wooksta!]

The most weird Nazi victory TL I ever read would be "Swastika Night" Catherine Burdekin (writing as Constantine Murray), and it's best described as "SS GB" crossed with "1984" but really strange, especially being set 800 years after WWII.