In terms of the US recession, I dont think it will last long with war on the way. The belligerent powers are going to need both raw materials and war material in huge quantities, and the US, both with an inevitable need to rearm and the profit to be made is low hanging fruit.
It's also a pretty dumb idea for the Great European powers to disinvest from the US, given the fact that they're going to be spending so much money to wage war and they're suddenly going to need access to US loans. Besides, each time that there has been a downturn, the US has bounced back