How's the Start?


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basically but its more complicated than that.
well if the Germans attack through Alsace and nt Belgium the UK may not do anything so that would change things, if the UK is not at war and let the UK sort out Ireland, stop the Liberal Party split, prevent the rise of the USA economically and militarily, or slow it down. A more left Government would affect India (for the better probably) and screw Russia even more. All good things. .
 
No war in 1914 means Moltke Jr retires as Chief of German General staff. His replacement could execute a much better (or worse) Schlieffen Plan.
In any case the best situation for Ottomans would be both sides exhaust each other without a clear winner while Ottomans use neutrality to fix the economy , get rid of capitulations and reorganise the army .
Indeed his replacement shows up in the next chapter. The ottomans do have an interesting future ahead.
 
well if the Germans attack through Alsace and nt Belgium the UK may not do anything so that would change things, if the UK is not at war and let the UK sort out Ireland, stop the Liberal Party split, prevent the rise of the USA economically and militarily, or slow it down. A more left Government would affect India (for the better probably) and screw Russia even more. All good things. .
Speaking of Ireland their first general election under the home rule act is about to start.......
The Liberal Party is definitely going to have a peculiar future ahead ittl.
 
thank all of you guys for the support in the turtledove polling! Thank you! Next chapter which will drop in by day after tomorrow will see the start of the great war ittl.
 
any predictions on the Depression of 1914-15 and the Alsatian Crisis?
In terms of the US recession, I dont think it will last long with war on the way. The belligerent powers are going to need both raw materials and war material in huge quantities, and the US, both with an inevitable need to rearm and the profit to be made is low hanging fruit.

It's also a pretty dumb idea for the Great European powers to disinvest from the US, given the fact that they're going to be spending so much money to wage war and they're suddenly going to need access to US loans. Besides, each time that there has been a downturn, the US has bounced back
 
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Depression rages on America as crisis grips Germany. Thoughts? Predictions?
I cant say much about France against Germany, it seems the War was avoided as much as it can, but if it doesnt spark in Alsace, it will spark in Serbia, Russia or other powderkeg.

Now, about the Depression... Maybe other countries can take advantage of the situation and get nice deals to trade, more the case of countries focused on infrastructure.
 
In terms of the US recession, I dont think it will last long with war on the way. The belligerent powers are going to need both raw materials and war material in huge quantities, and the US, both with an inevitable need to rearm and the profit to be made is low hanging fruit.

It's also a pretty dumb idea for the Great European powers to disinvest from the US, given the fact that they're going to be spending so much money to wage war and they're suddenly going to need access to US loans. Besides, each time that there has been a downturn, the US has bounced back
looks like the US banking sector will be struggling to lend in this TL
 
In terms of the US recession, I dont think it will last long with war on the way. The belligerent powers are going to need both raw materials and war material in huge quantities, and the US, both with an inevitable need to rearm and the profit to be made is low hanging fruit.
Kind off. Economics is a bit more complicated than that. During inflation, getting even more money by selling stuff is going to create even more inflation, so not really clear cut as it seems
It's also a pretty dumb idea for the Great European powers to disinvest from the US, given the fact that they're going to be spending so much money to wage war and they're suddenly going to need access to US loans. Besides, each time that there has been a downturn, the US has bounced back
Not exactly. In 1907 Britain, France, Germany and A-H threatened the USA that another recession would see their banking investments out because the USA went into depression too damn frequent. (1873,1879,1887,1893, 1899, 1902, 1907). Since it has happened, the great powers are taking their shares away from the US banking sector, deeming it to unstable. OTL, Roosevelt's anti-trust campaign was partially due to this promise from the rest of the great powers.
 
I cant say much about France against Germany, it seems the War was avoided as much as it can, but if it doesnt spark in Alsace, it will spark in Serbia, Russia or other powderkeg.
War could have been avoided otl as well.......history shows us that the easiest wars to avoid are the deadliest.....
Now, about the Depression... Maybe other countries can take advantage of the situation and get nice deals to trade, more the case of countries focused on infrastructure.
Basically what they're trying to do is this.
 
This will going to get ugly for ITTL world but the Ottomans are wise to stay out of the conflict and sitting out WW1.

Aussies and Kiwis will definitely will get a different national mythos since no Gallipoli is happening.
 
Chapter 18: War, What is it good for?
Chapter 18: War, What is it good for?

***

“Emperor Wilhelm II of Germany was, during the starting affairs of the Alsatian crisis, taking a calming hunting trip on the state of Max Egon Furst zu Furstenberg in Donaueschingen in Baden-Wurttembirg. Although this meeting and trip in Southern Germany had been arranged and conducted even before the Alsatian crisis, Wilhelm’s lack of interest and his belligerence in favor of the German army left a very bad impression and only served to aid the French nationalistic organizations and pro-independence organizations conducting the rallies in Alsace-Lorraine. According to rumors, the empress, Augusta Victoria of Schleswig-Holstein, had even ordered a train to take her husband so she could persuade him to return to Berlin to take in account the affairs of the Alsatian crisis. However Wilhelm II, ever the stubborn man, refused to go. Even his son, Crown Prince Wilhelm dropped hints that it would have been better to go back to Berlin, however the emperor of Germany continued to underestimate the issue at hand.

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Kaiser Wilhelm II of Germany

According to historian Wolfgang Mommsen, Wilhelm II at the time had underestimated the political dimension of the growing political crisis in Alsace, and its international dimension during that point in time. The reports which were written by Statthalter (governor) of Alsace-Lorraine, Karl von Wedel reflected the reports of Director Mahl, who wrote down that nothing unlawful had been commited by the protestors, and Wilhelm II saw nothing to act upon. However Karl von Wedel reached Wilhelm II’s residence on January 3, 1915 and begged the Emperor to allow him to restore civilian rule in Alsace-Lorraine, and he described the heavy handed response of the military excessive, and unlawful. Wilhelm II ordered von Wedel to return back to Alsace-Lorraine and to play for time. Wilhelm II simply wanted to wait for the report from the military headquarters in Strasbourg first. When this became public news the next day, riots and protests in Alsace-Lorraine erupted into a whole new level, and many of the civilians began to utterly disregard the menacing troops that were present and continued to protest. The military, in particular the 99th and 87th divisions responded by opening fire at the protestors.

On January 10, the Prussian War Minister, Erich von Falkenhayn, the Chief of General Staff Karl von Bulow, and other high ranking generals arrived in Donaueschingen and six days of discussions began. The public already seething from the opening of fire from the german troops, became even angrier as it seemed that the Kaiser only wished to hear the viewpoint of the military.

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Chancellor Bethmann-Hollweg

Chancellor Theobald von Bethmann-Hollweg who had been passed over by the military for the discussions, also came to the area coming under heavy pressure from the Reichstag to take part in the discussions. The Alsatians still hoping for a relatively peaceful and correct decision from the government crossed their fingers, however the result was disillusionment from the Alsatian population. The Kaiser had approved of the behavior of the military officers, and saw no reason to believe that they had exceeded their authority, simply reprimanding them for not controlling their troops which had opened fire during the protests, and telling them not to do it again.

Nonetheless, military reinforcements from Baden and the Rhineland into Alsace-Lorraine dissipated the crowds, who were now fearful for their lives. On January 20, however, the crisis erupted again. A military exercise was held that day in Saverne. The scene was being watched by Karl Bank, a local Alsatian, and his ethnic French Alsatian wife, who burst into laughter when he saw the young finely dressed Forstner, who had started the crisis with his remarks, and some locals around the area joined in the laughing as well. As a result, Forstner lost control of his temper, and struck down Blank giving him severe head injuries and swiped his saber at Blank’s French wife, who was rendered unconscious for several days due to some amount of blood loss.

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German troops patrolling Alsatian streets during the alsatian crisis.

Forstner was sentenced to 43 days of arrest by a military court on the first trial, however in the appellate trial, was only given a sentence of two weeks of house arrest. Although he had been accompanied by five soldiers who saw the event occur in front of their eyes, and Blank was unarmed, the judge, probably bribed by the Prussian military, interpreted his actions as self-defense, as Blank was guilty of laughing at the military, and by default insulting the crown. Forstner was thus only given house arrest for attacking Blank’s wife. Forstner received encouragement from many parts of the army, and even his colonel and lieutenant, as he had ‘defended’ the honor of the army with his acts of violence.

This only solidified the view within the Alsatian population that the German government was not working in favor of the populace, and began to devolve protests into outright riots. At first, police and military police dispersed the riots, and arrested hundreds of men, however small isolated cases of gunfire being released and killing rioters also became known. When this circulated into the people, many packed their bags, especially the ethnic French population, and started to pour into the French border, crossing the border and into France.

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French Foreign Minister Gaston Doumergue

The French government soon smelt blood. French foreign minister, Gaston Doumergue demanded to the German ambassador Wilhelm von Schoen to give France an answer for the ongoing refugee crisis at the Franco-German border, and to confirm whether or not, the rumors of German troops opening fire at Alsatian and Lorrainer protestors was true. Von Schoen told Doumergue that the refugee crisis was a result of a few protests gone out of hand, and tactfully sidestepped the second question by stating that he had not been informed if the rumors were true or not. Premier Viviani of France expressed his concerns of the issue and warned the German ambassador that if the protests spilt over into French lands, then the consequences would be massive.

Meanwhile, the very same thing that Viviani warned Schoen of happened, when a particularly violent riot broke out in Strasbourg, this time the rioters openly demanded a return to French rule, or for independence. Either of the two was the only option left; the rioters said. This idea spooked the German empire, which despite having sizeable Danish and Polish minorities, didn’t have to deal with serious separatism before. Despite the pleas of Chancellor Bethmann Hollweg to consider the options on a civilian platform, the German military overrode the civilian government, with tacit support from the Kaiser, and instead pushed 3 more divisions into Alsace Lorraine, and the Alsatians and Lorrainers knew exactly what the divisions were coming for, and this prompted a second mass refugee crisis into France, Luxembourg and Belgium, as well as Switzerland.

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Rene Viviani, Prime Minister of France.

By this point, word had leaked to France and the rest of the world that German troops had indeed fired on Alsatians and Lorrainers, and French irredentism erupted again as thousands of Frenchmen came down onto Paris demanding the Vivian government to do something about the Alsatian Crisis. The French government, as it had for the past forty years, was eager to regain Alsace-Lorraine, especially as it seemed that the Alsatians and Lorrainers themselves wanted to become a part of France once again, however was unsure whether or not an aggressive policy could be used against the Germans.

On January 29th, they contacted the Russian government, led by Tsar Nicholas II of Russia, who famously handed the French government a blank check so to speak, stating that Russia would defend her French ally with French interests being taken into account. Meanwhile as another wave of around 8,000 Alsatians and Lorrainers entered France the situation turned dire. Meanwhile news arrived to Berlin that Russia was going to stand with her ally and would remain a vigilant part of the Triple Entente. The German Foreign Minister, Gottlieb von Jagow, immediately departed for Vienna, to gauge the reaction of Germany’s Austrian and Italian allies, as the threat of war became real as Russia became involved.

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Gottlieb von Jagow

Gottlieb von Jagow met with the Austrian Chief of Cabinet of the Austrian Foreign Ministry, Count Alexander von Hoyos, who assured the German foreign minister that Austria-Hungary would honor her alliance with the German Empire. Though as he said that, he advised caution on the growing crisis in Europe. The Italian legation also stated that they would honor the Triple Alliance. These assurances however only served to make Jagow confident, as he knew that Britain was only semi-formally allied with Paris and St. Petersburg.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Sazonov and British Foreign Minister met each other on February 3rd, in the North Sea aboard HMS Ajax and discussed the events in person. Grey confirmed that Britain would only seek to enter a possible war if Germany was ‘truly in the fault’ basically handing a vague answer that no one really knew how to interpret properly.

This however was interpreted in Germany as basically saying that Britain would not intervene, which only aided Germany’s growing boldness. Even the Reichstag which had been angry over the overt militarism the German military has displayed during the crisis, was becoming agitated by the feeling that the Russians and French were interfering in what was completely an internal German issue.

France itself was becoming more and more angry. The government led by Vivian was becoming more and more angered by the situation brewing in Alsace Lorraine, and was becoming agitated by the constant protests in Paris, Bordeaux, Marseille and Nantes to do something about the German attacks on what the French people deemed to be ‘French territory’ inhabited by ‘French peoples’. Joseph Noulens, the French Minister of Finance, also agitated for an ‘armed’ solution, as the economic capitulations that France owed to Germany as an aftermath of the 1871 War would finally be removed completely. Due to the 1871 War, France still owed Germany the economic status of ‘favored nation’ and tariffs were lowered for German goods, and French goods themselves were subjected to normal tariff rates. Getting rid of such an economic capitulation was an important object in the eyes of the French government.

Adolf Messimy, the French Minister of War, warned alongside Chief of General Staff Joseph Joffre, that war was becoming likelier by the moment, if the government did not seek a diplomatic arrangement with the Germans. However the topic at hand was Alsace-Lorraine, one of the very founding national mythos of the French Third Republc, if they negotiated the continued ‘murder’ of the Alsatians and Lorrainers, it was quite evident in the eyes of Vivian, that the next legislative election would be his to lose.

Finally on February 10th, 1915, after 6 weeks of crisis, the French government handed an ultimatum to the German government on the Alsatian issue demanding:

The Imperial German government shall undertake:

  • The suppression of any publication in Imperial Germany that directly affects the livelihood of the French population in Alsace-Lorraine such as hate articles.
  • To hold the young lieutenant and his encouragers accountable for the damage they have committed in Alsace-Lorraine
  • To eliminate without delay from public instruction, actions against the peoples of Alsace-Lorraine
  • To remove from military service all officers guilty of warlike actions against the peoples of Alsace-Lorraine
  • To accept collaboration of the French, Russian, Austrian, British, and Italian governments for the supervision of restoration of civil law and rule in Alsace-Lorraine
  • To take judicial proceedings against accessories to the actions of the Zabern Affair.
To the German government, this was an unacceptable affair, as it would mean the French would have the legal right to meddle in German affairs, no matter for how short of a time. The German government flatly refused the ultimatum which they called a ‘request’ publicly to avoid the notion of war. On February 12, Vivian and the ministry ordered a breaking of diplomatic ties between Berlin and Paris, and the French government ordered partial mobilization of its armed forces. The Germans catching wind of this, ordered partial mobilization as well. In response, the Russian government stood by its ally and declared partial mobilization as well. This in turn set the Austrians and Italians to mobilize their armies partially as well.

To the Russians, there were many who didn’t want war, however the prevailing idea among the government was that this crisis was being used by Germany to act aggressively and that Russia had backed down too many times in the past; the Bosnian Crisis for example, and backing down again would only cement Russian appeasement to German demands. Another thought that was prevailing was also the thought that Russian arms had been recovered sufficiently from the defeats of 1904-06.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Sazonov also believed that war was inevitable and refused to acknowledge that Germany did have a right to make countermeasures in the face of French irredentism. On the contrary, Sazonov aligned himself with irrendentism, hoping for the collapse the German and Austro-Hungarian empires. Sazonov’s blank check to France raised the stakes during the diplomatic maneuvering of the Alsatian crisis. The diplomatic situation was not aided by the fact that French President Raymond Poincare was just as belligerent as the Germans, and persuaded the French government to declare full war.

As another riot was violently suppressed on February 16, France finally declared war on Germany declaring “The Republic cannot in good faith continue to watch the discriminations that the people of Alsace-Lorraine, many of them ethnic French, committed by the German government.”

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newspaper on the declaration of war.

The Germans retaliated with their own declaration of war. The Russian declaration of war delivered by Sazonov who had managed to stamp out war insecurities from Tsar Nicholas II and was delivered to Berlin as well. On the declaration of war from Russia, Austria-Hungary declared war on Russia and France on February 20, citing its alliance with Germany. On the 22nd of February, Italy honored its alliance and declared war on France and Russia as well.

The Great War had started.” Origins of the Great War. University of Oxford, 1998.

“Amidst the rising tensions of Europe the first general elections of home rule Ireland took place on January 25, 1915 till January 28, 1915. The elections was contested between the Irish Parliamentary Party, the Irish Unionist Party, The All-for-Ireland Party, the Sinn Fein party and the Liberal party. The Conservative party made a small comeback in the island by being named in the ballots, however it didn’t win a single seat in the Irish House of Commons. During the elections, the counties in Ulster which had voted against Home Rule were excluded from the elections.

The politics of Home Rule Ireland became involved in its classic taste. It was divided between three fields. The first was that of nationalist independence supporters. The second was that of moderates who wished for an Irish Dominion within the wider consensus of the British Empire. The third and final group was that of the Irish Unionists and the Irish Home Rulers who wanted to keep the Irish Home Rule Status Quo. Most famously, the Irish Unionist Party and the Irish Parliamentary Party allied with one another in a coalition alliance with one another displaying itself as a coalition that was for keeping the Home Rule Status Quo within Ireland.

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John Redmond

Whilst William O’Brien and his party on the other hand, ran on a platform of staying within the United Kingdom under Home Rule Status, however with all of Ulster unified with Home Rule Ireland. O’Brien lost some votes when he espoused this agenda of his, stating that independence or dominion status for Ireland was out of the question in a conversation with Prime Minister Asquith. The conversation seemed to have been leaked to the public somehow. Arthur Griffith and Sinn Fein marched on a platform of something else entirely. They encouraged partial independence of Ireland, and focused on the Austro-Hungarian model, advocating for a Confederal British-Irish Kingdom instead, with the devolved powers of Austria-Hungary being applied in the case of Ireland and Britain as well. The Liberal Party which competed for seats remained ambiguous on its position regarding the future of Ireland, instead running on an economic platform. Under the Liberal Party, Ireland from the 1890s had experienced momentous economic growth with both Dublin and Belfast becoming major cities in the empire. The Liberal Party’s Irish Manifesto promised to all that the Liberal Party wished to spread this economic prosperity to other cities in Ireland as well and grow Ireland out of its agrarian stage and enter it fully into the industrialized economic world.

The results of the 1915 Irish General Elections were:-

  • Irish Parliamentary Party: 44.8% or 73 seats won
  • Irish Unionist Party: 24.2% or 40 seats won.
  • All For Ireland: 15% or 24 seats won
  • Sinn Fein: 5.7% or 9 seats won
  • Liberal Party: 5.3% or 8 seats won
  • Independent Nationalists: 3% or 4 seats won
  • Independents: 2% or 6 seats won
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As the Irish Parliamentary Party won a plurality of seats in the Irish House of Commons, the party formed the devolved Irish government, alongside a coalition government with the Irish Unionist Party. In a By-Election in the Irish House of Commons, John Redmond was elected to become Ireland’s first Premier, and Redmond soon travelled to London where he became a member of cabinet as the Premier of Ireland, representing the Irish devolved government and its autonomy within the British Kingdom.” A History of Irish Politics: Can An Independent Ireland Survive? – Irish Nationalist League Pamphlet 2014.

“The European war that broke out mid February 1915 over the Alsace question spooked the Ottoman government. Even though fortifications in Rhodope was nearly completed and the Ottoman Military Reforms of 1910 and 11 were already completed in late 1914, the Ottoman government wanted absolutely no part in the growing war in the European continent. Nonetheless, it declared neutrality formally on February 25, 1915 and declared that no warship without the prior permission of the Ottoman government would be able to pass through the Bosporus Straits.

The new ottoman military reforms made the Ottomans keep a standing army of 500,000 men which could be expanded to 1.5 million during wartime. The 500,000 men were divided into 25 divisions of 20,000 men each. The force disposition of the new Ottoman Army at the start of the Great War was:-

  • Libya Region Command (20,000 men total)
    • 9th Infantry Regiment
      • 1st Brigade (Tripoli) (5000 men)
      • 2nd Brigade (Benghazi) (5000 men)
      • 3rd Brigade (Tobruk) (5000 men)
      • 4th Brigade (Fezzan) (5000 men)
  • Eastern Anatolia and Caucasian Command (100,000 men)
    • 1st Infantry Division
    • 2nd Infantry Division
    • 1st Mountaineer Division
    • 3rd Infantry Division
    • 4th Infantry Division
  • Western Anatolia Command (80,000 men)
    • 5th Infantry Division
    • 6th Infantry Division
    • 7th Infantry Division
    • 1st cavalry Division
  • Mesopotamia Region Command (40,000 troops total)
    • 8th Infantry Division
    • 2nd Cavalry Division
  • Syrian Region Command (60,000 troops total)
    • 10th Infantry Division
    • 3rd Cavalry Division
    • 11th Infantry Division
  • Hejaz-Yemen Area Command (40,000 Troops)
    • 2nd Mountaineer Division
    • 1st Light Desert Infantry Division
  • Eastern Balkan Command (100,000 troops)
    • 12th Infantry Division
    • 3rd Mountaineer Division
    • 4th Cavalry Division
    • 13th Infantry Division
    • 14th Infantry Division
  • Western Balkan Command (60,000 Troops)
    • 15th Infantry Division
    • 5th Cavalry Division
    • 4th Mountaineer Division
As the Ottoman Empire did have a non-aggression pact with Britain, the Ottoman Minister of War, Mahmud Shevket Pasha ordered the 10th Infantry Division from the Syrian Region Command and the 2nd Cavalry Division from the Mesopotamia Region Command to enter the Eastern and Western Balkan Command Regions respectively to reinforce the Balkans up to 200,000 troops. These 200,000 troops were mixed in their quality. Some were very professional troops, most were mixed, whilst some were non-professional troops.

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Ottoman Minister for War, Mahmud Shevket Pasha.

Meanwhile the Ottomans hurriedly looked at their supply situation for their military. The Ottoman army during the outbreak of the war used the following standard weapons for the army:-

  • Edged Weapons
    • Lance
    • Standard Sword
    • 1911 Tripoli Standard Cavalry Sword (domestic)
  • Sidearms
    • Mauser C96 (license Production)
    • Luger P08
    • Browning FN M1903
  • Machine Guns
    • Hotschkiss Mk I
    • Vickers Medium Machine Gun
  • Rifles
    • Winchester M1907 (License Production)
    • Winchester M1910
    • Snider-Enfield Mk III
The Ottomans as a result had a basic supply of domestically produced (alongside licensed production) of edged weapons, sidearms and rifles. Whilst the Ottomans didn’t have a proper supply of machine guns other than foreign suppliers. As a result, the Ottoman government ordered the military industries of the empire to get into contact with French, Russia, German, Austrian or British machine gun producers and to procure a license production license for a machine gun and its ammunition. The Ottoman Air Force as of the starting of the great war numbered around 98 planes and the Ottomans had a domestic supply in its strong aviation industry. It also had around 40 armored cars, all of which were domestic made, so that wasn’t a problem either. Either way, the Ottomans getting ready for war, even though they didn’t want to be a part of it was a good thing, for even though they didn’t want to take part in the Great War, another war was about to erupt, a miniature war which would drag the Balkans into it.” The Balkan War: A War within a War. University of Angora, 2019.

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Notes:

As you can see, the maneuvering of war ittl is very similar to that of otl: That is, war could have been easily avoided, but still happened due to ultranationalism, economic factors and the alliance web of Europe.

Now, a second war is also about to start in the balkans.....one which will directly affect the ottomans.

Also: Voting is still open in the turtledove polls! if you haven't voted, vote!

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