Osman Reborn; The Survival of Ottoman Democracy [An Ottoman TL set in the 1900s]
- Thread starter Sarthak
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it's a fig leaf basically saying 'here you go, something for your troubles, now get out'.
I don't think italy is stupid to blame russia and france for the defeat, the government knows what went wrong and they know this how the game is played. More importantly italy is more reliant on the UK and France than all three central powers, they need UK coal to survive. Osman Faud is not in direct line of inheritance how does he inherit the throne? Nether less interesting development seems a good candidate to help modernise the nation and for a person all the peoples of the empire could rally behind. Effectively he's a good monarch help stabilise the empire and transition it.
Actually through the total agnatic succession that the ottomans conducted since the 1700s, Osman Fuad is the third or fourth in line
Osmanoğlu family - Wikipedia
Ottomans should see about selling off their European possessions and using the money to industrialize and settle Anatolia and Syria-Iraq area. Long term it’s simply impossible to hold onto, getting the Balkan states to buy it from Ottomans in return for orderly transfer and perhaps even Russian forgiveness of debt would go a long way towards stabilizing the situation. It would also ensure the Balkans with no Turk to unite them start bickering amongst themselves over the spoils. Ottomans can also either demand fair and honest treatment of Muslims in said states or get a population transfer going in order to increase their own population. The way I’d do it is sell Sandzak to Austria, Albania to Italy, Give Macedonia to Greece in exchange for islands apart from Crete, which would split Serbia from Montenegro preventing a union and cutting Serbia from the sea as well as putting them into conflict with Italians. Giving Macedonia to Greece would pit them against Bulgarians and Serbs and whoever of those two takes it will fight the other to keep it. Use some of the money to fortify Istanbul outskirts. Maybe even offer Thessaloniki to some other great power to put them at odds with Bulgarians and Greeks.
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sounds good on paper, but without a crisis, no one in Istanbul is going to entertain a wholesale retreat from Europe. Some border changes (small in scale) is not out of the question however.
Ottomans know they are decaying and they know that imperial history since second siege of Vienna has been one long retreat from Europe. It is not a retreat but a sale, and better to get something out of it than be forced to give it up for free. Ottoman situation internationally if not internally will never be such that foreign powers would tolerate a re-annexation of Bulgaria or Greece which would be needed to give strategic depth to Rumelia.
such a sale would be out of the question. Also, Macedonia, Albania, Thrace were all very loyal territories of the Ottoman Empire, and selling them off gives a very bad message to the other other ethnic minorities of the empire
They wouldn’t have to outright renounce control. Do what they did in Bosnia. The land would nominally be in Ottoman hands and then later it can be kept out of it. Drip feed it basically to population and establishment. Rumelia was already depopulating at an alarming rate when it comes to Muslims and every single war and occupation means massacres of people that could be useful elsewhere. During Balkan wars Macedonia fell from 2.9 million inhabitants to under a million.
yes well, every one knows how that turned out in Bosnia (1908), so it's really not an option either. Besides, the Ottomans before the Italo-Turkish War were doing fine. One of the major reasons why the Great Powers allowed Italy to attack was because the estimates showed the Ottomans reaching normal debt levels by 1917 which would mean there would be no need for the OPDA. The failure in the Balkan Wars and the Italo-Turkish War, pushed the Ottomans back into bankruptcy. That is not the case ittl.
I hear you and in this TL ottomans are doing well and will probably be a superpower once oil starts flowing properly. But Balkans are simply impossible to hold onto or defend. Trying to hold it only means further investments into it that will get destroyed and burned with every war, to say nothing of civilian massacres. Ottomans will never ever be allowed to annex back any of the countries by the major powers. Thus never being able to permanently address the issues. Ability to defeat Balkan nations means little when every war brings more ethnic cleansing and thus ensures further hatred and desire for land.
the Balkans will be problem for the Ottomans yes, however simply selling them, is not on the table for any politician.
Not to mention wholesale abandonment of muslim population to the mercy of balkan nation. Also many of the Ottoman muslim elite is from balkan stock, like Albanian who don't want to see their homeland partioned by Serbia and Greece. Even Kemal born in Thesaloniki for example.
Any politician who proposed that scheme will be lucky if he just lost his political future. Doing that basically ensure a coup will happen to prevent that from happen.
Actually through the total agnatic succession that the ottomans conducted since the 1700s, Osman Fuad is the third or fourth in line
Osmanoğlu family - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
İt was agnatic seniority, not straight succession.
Osman Fuad was 14th in line in November 1922. All deaths in the Dynasty happening as OTL would put him as 4th Sultan-Caliph after Mehmed Reşad however.
@Vabasion
The Balkans is the political and economical core of the Empire. Anatolia is important in providing manpower. Arab lands are mostly secondary (but very important once oil gets going, plus symbolic importance of Hejaz and Jerusalem). While it may be harder to hold onto the Balkans than it is to hold onto Arabia I am sure that most of the leadership of the Empire would be more willing to lose Iraq or Yemen or Libya if it meant keeping the Balkans (especially since Ottomanism can still keep going without needing to go to Islamism or Turkism as long as Balkans can hold.
indeed, it is estimated that the ottomans lost 29% of their total economy n 1913 when the balkans were taken from the empire. That is massive!
Historically the Powers never allowed the Ottomans to regain territories once lost before the Second Balkan War, no matter how well they did in the field (Greco-Turkish War of 1897 is a recent example).
Also, the entire Italian admiralty should be court-martialled, since historically it was the threat of naval gunfire that kept the Ottoman forces away from cities seized by Italy.
Also, the entire Italian admiralty should be court-martialled, since historically it was the threat of naval gunfire that kept the Ottoman forces away from cities seized by Italy.