Osman Reborn; The Survival of Ottoman Democracy [An Ottoman TL set in the 1900s]

[Sarthak]

Historically the Powers never allowed the Ottomans to regain territories once lost before the Second Balkan War, no matter how well they did in the field (Greco-Turkish War of 1897 is a recent example).

This is true, however they did allow the Ottomans to take some territory in 1897 (strategic forts more than anything else).
And from everything i have read of the Italo-Turkish War, the compromise was that of like that of Egypt, or Bosnia, but if the Ottomans managed to bring a military success, they would enforce status quo. Grey apparently told the British Admiralty to ready in case the Italians did not wish for status quo if the ottomans won militarily after Shar Al-Shatt otl.

Also, the entire Italian admiralty should be court-martialled, since historically it was the threat of naval gunfire that kept the Ottoman forces away from cities seized by Italy.

They should, really. However, otl the ottomans never returned fire. Since they have ittl, the italians did become more cautious, losing several ships to land defenses and land artillery, that was used by the Turks to push through. Remember, they bombarded Tobruk and Tripoli the whole night. That would scare most of the lighter ships with longer range right away.

 

[TimTurner]

Also, the entire Italian admiralty should be court-martialled, since historically it was the threat of naval gunfire that kept the Ottoman forces away from cities seized by Italy.

yeah, Italy's reputation for military uselessness is going to be even worse ITTL.

 

[Osman Aga]

How much of the oil would Ottomans control?

And I don't think they would be a superpower but a great power with good economy(if they are able to use their oil money correctly) with a very good strategic position (more so if they get the Suez Canal back)

And I think they would have more territory than 1914 (Libya, Balkans area etc)

Saudi Arabian, Iraqi, Kuwaiti, Qatari, Libyan and maybe Azerbaijani oil. That is at least 22.5% of todays oil production, biggest oil producers of the world. But that depends on how OP wants his TL.

 

[Osman Aga]

What the situation with the population in the territories that the Ottomans lost in OTL during Balkan wars

Thrace was more or less Muslim majority, more in Western Thrace but lesser in the East. Albanians became a majority in Kosovo since 1878 after expulsion from Nis by the Serbian Army. Selanik had a decent Jewish population while todays Macedonia was more or less solidly 'Bulgarian' (Bulgarian: belonging to the Bulgarian millet), overall Macedonia was pretty diverse with no majority.

 

[Osman Aga]

Ottomans know they are decaying and they know that imperial history since second siege of Vienna has been one long retreat from Europe. It is not a retreat but a sale, and better to get something out of it than be forced to give it up for free. Ottoman situation internationally if not internally will never be such that foreign powers would tolerate a re-annexation of Bulgaria or Greece which would be needed to give strategic depth to Rumelia.

They know what now?

You know what happens to an official selling land to a certain Balkan country who has a share of Muslim expulsion/massacre in the previous decades? Let me tell you: he will be dragged through the streets before being hung on a tree to rot there. The Ottoman Muslims will not tolerate land sale. Other than the fact they can't pay for it due to excessive militarization. But no, the Ottoman Muslims of 1912 will not tolerate the sale of land. Not one inch.

Nobody considers reannexation of Bulgaria or Greece possible. The Ottomans of 1908 did not either.

 

[Osman Aga]

Agreed. Selling off land will be political suicide.

Not just political. They'd be better off spending their life in Paris to avoid a mob.

 

[Osman Aga]

I hear you and in this TL ottomans are doing well and will probably be a superpower once oil starts flowing properly. But Balkans are simply impossible to hold onto or defend. Trying to hold it only means further investments into it that will get destroyed and burned with every war, to say nothing of civilian massacres. Ottomans will never ever be allowed to annex back any of the countries by the major powers. Thus never being able to permanently address the issues. Ability to defeat Balkan nations means little when every war brings more ethnic cleansing and thus ensures further hatred and desire for land.

Militarily speaking it is very hard to defend in 1912. Macedonia and Eastern Thrace lay exposed and the bulk of the Ottoman Conscripts are from Anatolia which have limited railroards. I'd see it like this, if the Ottomans avoid a Balkan War like they did in the period of 1885-1912, a good 27 years, or just win a Status Quo Ante Bellum until the 1920s, Anatolia and Rumelia will be better connected and have increasing Muslim population. Which makes defense of Rumelia better. At some point (1950s and onward) it won't be realistic for the Balkan Nations to attack anymore.

But in conclusion... not impossible. Not ASB. No.

 

[Osman Aga]

yes well, every one knows how that turned out in Bosnia (1908), so it's really not an option either. Besides, the Ottomans before the Italo-Turkish War were doing fine. One of the major reasons why the Great Powers allowed Italy to attack was because the estimates showed the Ottomans reaching normal debt levels by 1917 which would mean there would be no need for the OPDA. The failure in the Balkan Wars and the Italo-Turkish War, pushed the Ottomans back into bankruptcy. That is not the case ittl.

If the Ottomans want to be lured into a potential war by anyside, Bosnia is a card. The Young Turks nor others did not forget about it. The Bosnian Muhacirs are the first and foremost, many being original immigrants.

But realistically speaking, Bosnia (and Albania) will not remain in Ottoman hand indefinitely. Albania had a developing national identity and often rebelled. Bosnia is will likely follow an Albanian analogue. The best case scenario is to keep Albania and Bosnia as independent allied states in the Balkans from the 1920s/1930s or so. They will need the Ottomans as regional prop up state against Serbian and Greek aggression.

 

[Deleted member 117308]

It seems the world in this TL will be better than OTL. At least in the middle east.

 

[haider najib]

But realistically speaking, Bosnia (and Albania) will not remain in Ottoman hand indefinitely. Albania had a developing national identity and often rebelled. Bosnia is will likely follow an Albanian analogue. The best case scenario is to keep Albania and Bosnia as independent allied states in the Balkans from the 1920s/1930s or so. They will need the Ottomans as regional prop up state against Serbian and Greek aggression.

How will Bosnia work? Its made of three groups serbs, croats and bosniaks, also can the ottomans not use the muslim card with albanians?

 

[Osman Aga]

How will Bosnia work? Its made of three groups serbs, croats and bosniaks, also can the ottomans not use the muslim card with albanians?

They can use the Muslim card to delay Albania leaving. It will develop from increased Autonomy to Independence. That is certain as far as I see it.
Bosnia... well if it does it will largely be kept alive by Ottoman troops until a Bosnian Force is formed. Add to that the return of some Bosnians in the Ottoman Empire. All it matters is that the Ottomans help them against minority threats until demographics are like 50-60%ish Muslim.

 

[haider najib]

They can use the Muslim card to delay Albania leaving. It

Why can't they stop the independence? Surely muslim albanians would rather br part of the empire than independent.

 

[Vabasion]

Why can't they stop the independence? Surely muslim albanians would rather br part of the empire than independent.

Not at the time. Ottomans left them and Bosniaks to their own fates whenever an enemy attacked while getting the money out of the in the meantime. People were tired of it and wanted to be in charge of their own fate.

 

[Osman Aga]

Not at the time. Ottomans left them and Bosniaks to their own fates whenever an enemy attacked while getting the money out of the in the meantime. People were tired of it and wanted to be in charge of their own fate.

What..?

 

[Osman Aga]

Why can't they stop the independence? Surely muslim albanians would rather br part of the empire than independent.

The Ottoman inability to defend Albanian Muslim homeland was the primary reason for this. The Ottomans recovering Ulcinj and going for increased Albanian autonomy will keep them somewhat satisfied. But by 1909 thet were going to the independence path. Even if independence is delayed or not cared for by the Ottoman-Albanians, it will open future problems like other etnicities wanting their own ethnic autonomy based on an Albanian Eyalet.

The problems are:
1. Albanians dominated the area of Greater Albania with Turkish and Serb minorities in Kosovo and Greek minorities in South Epirus. The majority is Muslim but...
2. The Albanians were already looking for independence
3. Unlike Macedonia or Eastern Anatolia, it has limited Turkish population. The 5-15% ethnic Turks in Kosovo are not enough to successfully get loyalty in "Greater Albania"

The Ottomans won't lose much by losing Albania, other than a large Muslim population of around 1-1.5 million. But they aren't happy for decades now. If some things are taken care off, the Ottomans have a friendly Muslim nation in Albania. Maybe the establishment of Albania is followed by an Ottoman or a Mehmed Ali dynasty member taking the throne of a newly independent Albania. Who knows.

I guess Albania leaving isn't inevitable but the odds of leaving vs staying is 80-20. What is inevitable is prior to their possible independence, it will be an autonomous eyalet.

 

[haider najib]

The Ottoman inability to defend Albanian Muslim homeland was the primary reason for this

Do they think they could defend it better? they will be torn apart by greece, Serbia and italy.

 

[Osman Aga]

Do they think they could defend it better? they will be torn apart by greece, Serbia and italy.

I think it is more likely Italy will turn Albania into a protectorate than it getting divided between three/four states. That is as long as the Ottoman Empire remains in Macedonia for another two/three decades after independence. As long as the Ottoman Empire remains in Macedonia they will be a guarantor.

 

[Abd ar-Rahman II]

The Ottoman inability to defend Albanian Muslim homeland was the primary reason for this. The Ottomans recovering Ulcinj and going for increased Albanian autonomy will keep them somewhat satisfied. But by 1909 thet were going to the independence path. Even if independence is delayed or not cared for by the Ottoman-Albanians, it will open future problems like other etnicities wanting their own ethnic autonomy based on an Albanian Eyalet.

The problems are:
1. Albanians dominated the area of Greater Albania with Turkish and Serb minorities in Kosovo and Greek minorities in South Epirus. The majority is Muslim but...
2. The Albanians were already looking for independence
3. Unlike Macedonia or Eastern Anatolia, it has limited Turkish population. The 5-15% ethnic Turks in Kosovo are not enough to successfully get loyalty in "Greater Albania"

The Ottomans won't lose much by losing Albania, other than a large Muslim population of around 1-1.5 million. But they aren't happy for decades now. If some things are taken care off, the Ottomans have a friendly Muslim nation in Albania. Maybe the establishment of Albania is followed by an Ottoman or a Mehmed Ali dynasty member taking the throne of a newly independent Albania. Who knows.

I guess Albania leaving isn't inevitable but the odds of leaving vs staying is 80-20. What is inevitable is prior to their possible independence, it will be an autonomous eyalet.

Couldn’t some part of the Albanian prefer autonomy inside the Ottoman Empire than independence and being prey to foreign nation like Italy Greece and Serbia who had ambition on their territory ? Especially if the ottoman start to show that they can defeat invading European power ?

 

[Horseshoe]

Why did the great powers worry so much about the sultan declaring Jihad in TTL since in OTL during ww1 the Jihad declared by the sultan did no cause any revolts or problems by the Muslim subject of the allied powers

 

[Abd ar-Rahman II]

Why did the great powers worry so much about the sultan declaring Jihad in TTL since in OTL during ww1 the Jihad declared by the sultan did no cause any revolts or problems by the Muslim subject of the allied powers

I think it’s because they didn’t know that it wouldn’t work and some orientalist bias ?? But if I remenver correctly what I read once declaration of jihad was a concern at the time .