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Likely still results in a quick independence post-war.
Well, the nature of an independent Indonesia might be different from OTL considering how the Americans and the Dutch, owing to how the Indonesian nationalists collaborated with Japan, might decide to give Indonesia independence as multiple states as opposed to a single Indonesian state.
 
When can we have a map of Pacific front?
Took me a while to find a suitable base map (what I ended up using can be found here), but here's Japan's greatest territorial extent from Nov 42 (or update XXVII)
FS-map-1942-80.jpg

I'll post another just before the decisive battle begins.

- BNC
 
LII: Ready for Battle (11/43)
LII: Ready for Battle, November 1943

The Combined Fleet was finally ready. The Shinano, Japan’s final battleship, and the Taiho, its next-to-last carrier, were finally completed within days of each other in early November 1943. The Unryu would not be ready for at least another eighteen months, and was under threat of cancellation from the Army. It would be this fleet that would fight out the decisive battle.
Both ships had been given far less than their fair due of glory during the construction process. In an effort to get both ships into active service before the end of the year, a considerable number of components had been rushed into place, dooming the ships to suffer from reliability problems. Several more components had been left out entirely, most notably the RADAR sets originally intended for Taiho. Yamamoto had given the final word on those RADAR sets: the decisive battle would be fought in friendly territory, so land-based aircraft would be available to locate the enemy. If American bombers did get through the Zeroes flying a combat air patrol, they would not be able to destroy Taiho’s armoured flight deck. That line of thinking still depended on a good damage control team, and unfortunately Taiho’s crew was not well prepared for that either. Shinano’s problems were fewer, helped by the presence of two existing ships of the class, but the third Yamato could not claim to be as robust as her sisters.
The commissioning of the new ships was led by Vice Admiral Takeo Kurita, an officer whose greatest accomplishment was serving under Nagumo during the Indian Ocean Raid in early 1942. None of Japan’s top admirals dared appear publicly where Army assassins might show up. Shinano’s commissioning went undisturbed, probably because the Army did not consider battleships worth their time, but the ceremony for Taiho was targeted by a group of Army officers. Three men, a brigadier general and two colonels, invited themselves to Kobe, armed and ready to remove Yamamoto from power for good. When instead they saw a lower ranking admiral who they did not recognise, the general decided against shooting him, believing him not to be an important enough target, and certainly not worth the risk of inviting backlash against the Army. He ordered the two colonels not to shoot as well, but it was too late. One of them had already moved to the edge of the crowd. When Kurita finished his speech and stepped off the stage, the colonel dragged him away into a nearby alley and shot him once in the head. Two Navy guards quickly caught up with him, and got revenge for their fallen admiral less than a minute later.

While the new ships were preparing for a rushed series of trials, Yamamoto took the opportunity to review the rest of his forces. In addition to the three Yamatos, the IJN still had seven other battleships: Nagato and Mutsu, which were both relatively modern, and the older Kongo, Fuso, Yamashiro, Ise and Hyuga. Fuso and Yamashiro in particular had been recently refitted to carry a greatly expanded anti-aircraft armament. Nagumo and Yamaguchi had been debating about how to best use them: while their main guns would be very useful in the main battle line, if they were held back as escorts for the carrier fleet they could allow more of the IJN’s airpower to be directed against the Allied carriers.
The ten battleships were joined by the three fleet carriers that had taken part in the South Pacific campaign – Akagi, Hiryu and Shokaku, as well as the new Taiho. Two more carriers – the Hiyo and Junyo, were only able to carry around 50 aircraft each, so were too small to be considered true fleet carriers but considerably larger than his small decks. Then there were seven true ‘light’ carriers: Hosho, Ryuho, Taiyo, Unyo, Ryujo, Chiyoda and Chitose. Of those, Hosho would be useless in battle and Ryuho hardly better, so those were to continue in their current role as aircraft transports and training ships. The latter five would bring Yamamoto’s carrier force to eleven decks.
Yamamoto could also call upon the seven surviving heavy cruisers: Aoba, Chokai, Furutaka, Haguro, Kako, Kumano and Myoko, two light cruisers (Oi and Tenryu), and around 40 destroyers. Enough tankers still existed to fuel the fleet anywhere within Japanese territory, although there was not much room to spare. The newly trained group of pilots had performed well so far, and looked to be Japan’s best hope to win the war. Considering the dismal performance of the Army’s airmen since about the time of New Caledonia, they may well have been Japan’s only hope.

Before the ships had even left Tokyo Bay, Yamamoto’s good spirits were shot through the head. News had come in that Admiral Kurita had been killed. General Sugiyama and the Army’s propaganda team had decided that Kurita had killed himself, and most civilians who had been at the Taiho’s commissioning knew nothing more than that some gunshots had been heard. That was a lie, and a rather obvious one considering the mad chase that had unfolded at the end of the ceremony.
Yamamoto quickly decided against escalating tensions any further with the Army. If he looked to believe that Kurita had indeed killed himself, the Army would not strike again for a little while – they already had their victory – and he would have time to get people and supplies out of Tokyo to ensure the decisive battle could be fought. At the same time, this incident would come out at some point, enough people outside the Navy knew the truth, and when it did it would surely reflect badly on Sugiyama and his cronies. Hopefully the Americans would take some useless island in the meantime to further turn the public against the Army. Sugiyama couldn’t be defeated in open battle – the Army’s control of Tokyo was too strong – but if the public turned against him he could soon find himself without enough allies to continue the fight.
For now, Yamamoto ordered that all admirals within the Navy were to remain on board their ships or travel with four armed guards at all times. Kurita’s guards had not been able to save him, but they had managed to kill off one of his assassins. Then he sent out a secret message, asking that former Prime Minister and retired admiral Mitsumasa Yonai meet him in Yokosuka when Shinano’s trials were finished in December. Yonai had been overlooked by the Army at least once, was popular within the Navy and was closely trusted by the Emperor. If there was ever to be an end to the madness caused by the Army, the Navy needed someone to replace it. Yonai could fit that role well.

- BNC
 
No radar, 2 crappy CVEs, and continued infighting.
Looks like Yamamoto might get his "decisive battle", though its going to be the opposite of his hopes.
The naval battle that seals Japan's fate.
 
We're ready to rock! ...For a questionable definition of 'ready', damn that IJA!
Several more components had been left out entirely, most notably the RADAR sets originally intended for Taiho. Yamamoto had given the final word on those RADAR sets: the decisive battle would be fought in friendly territory, so land-based aircraft would be available to locate the enemy.
This is going to be the point where Yamamoto's intuition finally fails him, air recon isn't fool-proof. is there anthing in the decisive battle fleet with proper radar? Also, how much land-based air does the IJN have?
If American bombers did get through the Zeroes flying a combat air patrol, they would not be able to destroy Taiho’s armoured flight deck. That line of thinking still depended on a good damage control team, and unfortunately Taiho’s crew was not well prepared for that either.
Better prepared than OTL at least, I really hope! Hopefully Taihó's skinking will be less inglorious than OTL.

How much experience was there OTL in WW2 about armored-deck carriers resisting bombs? The british carriers did well against kamikazes, but bombs might be more armor piercing... IDK.
When Kurita finished his speech and stepped off the stage, the colonel dragged him away into a nearby alley and shot him once in the head. Two Navy guards quickly caught up with him, and got revenge for their fallen admiral less than a minute later.
How many admirals are even alive at this point side from Yamamoto himself?
Fuso and Yamashiro in particular had been recently refitted to carry a greatly expanded anti-aircraft armament.
Anything actually useful, or just those shitty 25mm guns?
The latter five would bring Yamamoto’s carrier force to eleven decks.
This, against up to 7 Essexes, 8 Independences, and god-knows-how-many CVEs. This will be a truly, unbelievably, spectacular aircraft carrier battle! I'm looking SO forwards to this.
The newly trained group of pilots had performed well so far, and looked to be Japan’s best hope to win the war.
It's something I guess? Very bad odds, but at least it's not going to be a turkey shoot.

EDIT: Is Yamamoto bringing any submarines to the decisive battle? What have Japan's subs been up to recently anyway?
 
Very nice! Will we also get an overview of the American fleet and her decks so that we can compare the two fleets?
I think the story works better if I look at more Tokyo business first, but there will be an update on the USN's strength before the battle begins :)

is there anthing in the decisive battle fleet with proper radar? Also, how much land-based air does the IJN have?
Ise and Hyuga had radars installed in early 42, and some other ships would have received it since (particularly ships that weren't doing much while the focus was on FS). Overall though the IJN's ship-bourne radar capability is very lackluster.
Land-based air will depend a lot on exactly where the battle ends up being fought, but most islands only have a fairly small amount of aircraft and all of them equipped with lesser quality pilots (and obsolete planes). Radar-equipped Aichi E13A scout planes and G4M bombers are probably the most useful assets there. For fighters Yamamoto is relying on his carriers.

How much experience was there OTL in WW2 about armored-deck carriers resisting bombs?
I will have to look into this before I write the battle, but it is safe to say that the Japanese are greatly overestimating the strength of their decks.

How many admirals are even alive at this point side from Yamamoto himself?
Most of them. The assassins knocked off Kurita mostly because they thought they would get a chance at Yamamoto and then decided it would be a shame not to shoot someone.

Anything actually useful, or just those shitty 25mm guns?
Junk. A lot of it, but it's still junk.

EDIT: Is Yamamoto bringing any submarines to the decisive battle? What have Japan's subs been up to recently anyway?
Subs will be there. For most of 1943 they've been stalking the oceans but not really hitting anything of consequence. And getting sunk.

Thanks! I hope there are no distortions on the important parts of the underlying map as bad as what has happened to the North Island of NZ.
Finding a good map with the right amount of detail is pretty hard unfortunately :(

- BNC
 
LIII: The Tokyo Games (12/43)
LIII: The Tokyo Games, December 1943

Yamamoto felt as though fortune had blessed him once again. It was a feeling he had grown accustomed to, after a string of victories that had given him an unmatched reputation among admirals across the world. The odds were stacked so greatly against Japan that many had worried defeat would only take a year, and for a long time Yamamoto had been leading that belief. The war was now in its third year, but apart from the far-off South Pacific and Wake, Japan had not really been pushed back anywhere. The US Navy did not look to be nearly so large as he had predicted it would become by early 1944, while the Imperial Navy was about as strong as it had ever been. It barely had enough oil to get to the perimeter and back, but no matter there. One battle. One victory. America was just about defeated. And that victory was certain: the grand admiral knew that the god of war looked favourably upon him.
Help from the god of war would not help Yamamoto in the other conflict he had found himself forced into. Fighting the Imperial Army was not a matter of carrier-based bombers and battleship guns, but one of pistols and knives, fought in the back streets of Tokyo and unremarkable rooms hosting junior officers. Each with their plans, each with their targets. Despite that, fortune had once again given Yamamoto its blessing. The discovery made by a low-ranking sailor on leave from on-shore duty had been passed up the chain of command. Used properly, it could be the silver bullet that pierced Sugiyama’s skull, and bring an end to the Army’s nonsense. As he walked through the door of an unremarkable house in Yokosuka, a meeting he had scheduled last month gave him the chance to do just that.

“Admiral, it is good to see you again.” ex-Prime Minister Yonai greeted him, “I must concede I have been surprised by your victories against the Americans. Three years ago I would have given us no chance at all to win this war, yet here we are.”
“Thank you, sir.” Yamamoto said. “Unfortunately, the Americans are only half of our problem. The Army at this point is our real threat. A disease upon the nation.”
“I had feared I would be dragged into that game at some point.” Yonai admitted. “I didn’t think it would be you who brought me in.”
“I didn’t seek to. Unfortunately Sugiyama decided to force me to fight him anyway.” Yamamoto said.
“So I would guess that you wish for me to take back by old position?” Yonai asked.
“Not necessarily. A counter-coup only invites a response from Sugiyama.” Yamamoto said. “Our answer must be smarter than that, and with this information I believe we may have the answer we need.”
Yonai took the paper that Yamamoto offered. Although incomplete, it looked to be a copy of a conversation between two Army officers, accidentally overheard by a sailor loyal to his Emperor. Potential targets for assassination, locations for hideouts, even stories that could be told to the newspapers in case of any ‘accidents’. “You believe this is genuine?” Yonai asked.
“If it is, we may be able to beat them. If it is not, the worst we lose is a handful of volunteers to Sugiyama’s assassins should we run into a trap, and none of the highest ranks. The risk to us is minimal in any case.” Yamamoto said.
“Your name is on that list.” Yonai observed.
“I would be much more surprised if it were not.” Yamamoto said.
“So what is your plan for me after these hideouts are taken?” Yonai asked.
“We’re not taking the hideouts.” Yamamoto said.
“Then your plan is what exactly?” Yonai wondered.
“To rescue the Emperor.” Yamamoto said. “We do know that the Emperor is held in each location for only a short amount of time, preventing his discovery. Sugiyama thinks that if he does this, the Emperor can be kept in his clutches. As you can see there are several hideouts, and there must be many more we do not know about.”
“So you’re going to wait for the Army to move him to one that you do know about? That could take months.” Yonai said.
“How many hideouts do you believe the Army is actually using?” Yamamoto asked.
“I would guess hundreds.” Yonai said. “Tokyo is a very large place.”
“My thoughts are that the number is many times less than that. Probably no more than a few dozen. Sugiyama has been doing this every few days since August, and our response so far has been very limited. He has very likely grown lazy or distracted in that time. If we watch four or five of these locations, we should be able to locate the Emperor within the next few months.” Yamamoto explained. “My preference, which will be reflected in the orders I send to the men, would be to watch locations closest to Navy barracks, such that we may quickly respond to any news. If we can get the Emperor out of Sugiyama’s hands, he will be willing to remove Sugiyama promptly. Shortly before he was captured, he was supportive of my proposals to win the war.”
“Where does that leave me?” Yonai asked, “Prime Minister again?”
“If you would accept the position, that would be my preference.” Yamamoto said. “Your term in office is notable for cooperation between the services, and this will be very important if we are to end the assassinations. I shall recommend this to the Emperor as soon as he has been freed, and believe General Terauchi would be the best man for the top Army positions.”
“I understand he is your friend?” Yonai asked.
“As much as I have within the Army ranks. He is not a part of Sugiyama’s clique and was considered for promotion to Field Marshal before the takeover. The Army will follow him and he will not seek to continue the madness. More importantly, if he receives that promotion it will not look as though I have interfered, but as a natural successor to Sugiyama, who also calls himself Marshal now.” Yamamoto asked. “Are you willing to take your old job back?”
Yonai paused for a moment, considering Yamamoto’s plan. Then he decided: “If you can organise the Emperor’s restoration, I shall support your decision.”

When he returned to the Musashi, Yamamoto was greeted by some most unwelcome news. Nagumo informed him that an American submarine had sunk two oil tankers west of the Philippines. Those two tankers had been an important part of the decisive battle plan, and without them the fleet would be forced to refuel in Palau before engaging the Americans.
“A good thing I moved the fuel storage there then. It is right on the route to MacArthur’s targets in Java and New Guinea.” Yamamoto noticed.
“You’ve lost time.” Nagumo pointed out, “and you may not be fighting MacArthur next year.”

- BNC
 
You know, that it's over a year after the first decisive battle and Japan barely has enough gas to fight the second, it really shows how bad Japan's logistical situation is.

At this rate Japan could wreck most of the USN in this battle, and America would still be able to rebuild most of it before Japan could actually reconquer any islands.
 
It's Shattered Sword time for the Kido Butai except this time the KB will be outnumbered and wont be facing TBDs and Wildcats but TBFs and Hellcats with the always reliable SBDs.
 
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LIV: Operation Wasteland (1/44)
LIV: Operation Wasteland, January 1944

The capture of Wake could be described as an unnecessary operation, taking a tiny island that was totally worthless for basing anything larger than a scout plane out of. If the Japanese fleet sailed near it, they may be more easily located than would otherwise be the case, but it was always much more likely that the Japanese would sail to one of their forward bases, most likely Truk, before attempting to engage the Americans. Unless of course they were waiting to fight the US Navy just outside Tokyo Bay.
‘Wasteland’, despite the name, was always going to be a far more important operation than Wake’s ‘Cleaver’. The targets were three major atolls in the Marshalls chain: Maloelap in the east, Kwajalein, the largest and arguably most important in the centre of the chain, and Eniwetok in the west. All three were to be attacked on the same day, and the bulk of the US Pacific Fleet, commanded by Admiral Spruance, would be supporting more than a division of Marines. Spruance was ordered to use his battleships to deliver a devastating bombardment of the Japanese positions and his carriers to sweep the skies, but if the Combined Fleet showed up, the destruction of Yamamoto was to be the first priority.
Wasteland was the first step in a much larger plan, the ‘Central Pacific Operation’ or ‘Blowdart’ in code. Under this plan, the Marshalls would be secured while MacArthur launched an overland assault in central New Guinea, taking advantage of intelligence suggesting that the Japanese were more concerned by MacArthur than Nimitz or Spruance. This would be followed by the capture of Truk in the Carolines, cutting the Japanese Empire in two and leaving the Gilberts, Solomons, New Hebrides and other islands to wither and die without the need for invasion. Truk would be followed by the capture of the Palaus and Marianas, giving the Allies bases from which the new B-29 Superfortress bombers would be able to bomb the Home Islands. Once Palau had been secured, MacArthur would be transferred out of Australia to command an invasion of the Philippines – not from the south as Yamamoto believed but from the east, which would hopefully cut the Home Islands off from vital resources in South East Asia by the end of 1944.
Yamamoto’s intention to force a decisive battle was hardly a secret – Tsushima had won the Russo-Japanese war in 1905 and every action Japan had taken since then indicated they were using a similar strategy against the United States. The grand admiral was bound to show up at some point, and he had a very powerful fleet under his command, one that had suffered only one major defeat since 1941. Yamamoto was far too dangerous to be left ignored.
Nimitz’ instructions were clear: “The way to defeat Japan is to defeat Yamamoto.”

On January 26th, the previously quiet front in New Guinea erupted as MacArthur launched a massive offensive against the Japanese defences in the foothills of the Owen Stanley Ranges. The terrain was inhospitable, forcing all supplies to be brought over by air, while the IJA’s few surviving planes could provide no more than token resistance. Their ground troops proved little better against MacArthur’s combined American-Australian force, which had been reinforced with an elite unit comprised of Fijians and Samoans, eager to avenge the offensive directed against their homes in 1942. Days of artillery fire and aerial bombardment wore away at the starving Japanese forces, and by the end of the month the line had been cracked. A treacherous and difficult mountain track was the only path forward, and it would require weeks of difficult battles to conquer. MacArthur was unfazed. He was on the move again.
Yamamoto was quick to notice MacArthur’s new offensive. His attention had been firmly set on the general for a very long time, and was wholly convinced that MacArthur would be his opponent in the decisive battle. Once New Guinea was taken (which it surely would considering that the Army was in charge of its defence), MacArthur would undoubtedly move on Rabaul. Rabaul was a massive Japanese base, dominating the approaches to the South Pacific. The garrison there was enormous, numbering well over 100,000, all but guaranteeing MacArthur a bloody disaster when he attacked it. His plan was to wait for MacArthur to get bogged down on the beaches, and then annihilate his fleet while it was distracted by its efforts to support the landing.
When the Marines stormed ashore across the Marshall islands the next day, Yamamoto was certain that Nimitz was leading a mere diversion. The appearance of the American battlefleet there was explained away as it being more useful there, for no battleship guns could reach the battlefields of inland New Guinea, but they would be transferred south for the Rabaul operation, where they could be crushed.
For six days, while the Marshall islands slowly fell to the Americans, Yamamoto remained unflinching in his beliefs. The fleet was kept in Tokyo Bay, intended as a secret weapon to be kept concealed until the last moment. Then, on February 2nd, Nagumo finally convinced Yamamoto that the fleet would be useless in Tokyo Bay, and the grand admiral ordered the fleet be moved to Palau and then refuelled, in preparation for the battle. Nagumo’s other warning, that it may be MacArthur who was the diversion, was left ignored.

***

“Take a seat, colonel.” Nimitz said. “What’s the news?”
“Not good, sir,” the colonel replied. “We’ve just decoded a whole series of messages indicating Yamamoto has left Tokyo with what seems to be the entire Japanese fleet.”
Nimitz only had to look out the window to see how bad that could be. The wreck of the Arizona, mostly submerged under Pearl Harbour’s waters, was clearly visible. The other time that Yamamoto had left Tokyo with most of his fleet he had launched the South Pacific campaign, another total disaster.
“Where do you think he is headed?” Nimitz asked.
“Almost due south, sir. Almost every time Yamamoto mentions an Allied commander he uses MacArthur’s name, and it is very likely that he knows of MacArthur’s intention to free the Philippines.” The colonel said. “So Java or New Guinea are very likely, although their bases in the Palaus or at Truk cannot be ruled out.”
“Inform MacArthur immediately.” Nimitz ordered. “And make sure General Kenney is warned as well. If Yamamoto comes in range, they are to focus all efforts on his destruction, even at the expense of the New Guinea campaign.”
As the intelligence colonel saluted and left, Nimitz picked up the phone and asked for Admiral Spruance’s office.
“Ray, I want you to amend the plans for Crossbones.” Nimitz ordered. “Yamamoto’s coming south, maybe for you, maybe for MacArthur. Be ready for a major battle, because if he turns east he’ll be bringing everything he’s got.”

- BNC
 
LV: Return to the Gilberts (2/44)
LV: Return to the Gilberts, February 1944

Yamamoto’s move south came just as the Marshalls operation was being completed, and brought to light once more a long-standing concern with the entire Central Pacific Plan. Wake had been taken to act as a forward reconnaissance base, while the Gilbert islands had been ignored, serving as an occasional target for raids. The large garrison on the islands, and their limited strategic value, ensured that they would never be seriously considered for invasion. Until the Carolines were taken as part of Operation Crossbones, the Gilberts had become a forward reconnaissance base for the Japanese. That had not been a problem so long as the Japanese could not do anything to reinforce their islands (as had seemed the case throughout the last several months), but now that the decisive battle was just over the horizon, the Gilberts posed a new threat: if left active, they could warn Yamamoto of the US fleet’s arrival two days before it got to Truk. Perhaps more.
That was a risk Nimitz and Spruance were not prepared to take.

An invasion of the two most important locations in the Gilberts chain: Makin and Tarawa, was quickly dismissed for the same reasons it had been passed over in 1943. Furthermore, Truk would be an important part of the upcoming Philippines operation, so a delay there was unacceptable. Instead, four of the carriers that had been supporting the landings on Maloelap were directed south, to deliver a knockout blow against Tarawa. Concerns of the Japanese rebuilding the base after the operation were dismissed: if the Gilberts were out of action until the day after Crossbones began, the raid would have done its job. Once Truk fell, there was no chance of Tarawa posing any further threat.
The raid was launched on February 8th and quickly proved to be an astonishing success. The Japanese fighters based on the island, mostly early-model Zeroes but also including antiquated A5Ms, proved to be no obstacle to the Americans, who were now fielding F6F Hellcats alongside the Wildcats and Corsairs, and within a few hours the Japanese air defences in the eastern Pacific were effectively wiped out for good. Bombers were sent in throughout the afternoon, cratering the runways, destroying hangars and storage facilities, and finishing off aircraft that had never gotten off the ground. Before the day was out, Tarawa was a smoking ruin. Like Efate and Guadalcanal before it, the base would never be repaired by the Japanese.

Yamamoto was informed of the raid around midday, and was immediately put into a foul mood. The loss of two tankers in December had forced him to send the fleet to Palau to pick up fuel before the decisive battle could take place, and now that the Americans were targeting the eastern islands his fleet was well out of position to react. As the Americans had feared, he had intended to use Tarawa as a warning station in case the US Navy appeared in force. Palau to Truk was a three day voyage, and there was another three or four days between Truk and Tarawa. Two days’ warning would have been extremely helpful.
The raid also shook Yamamoto’s confidence that he would be fighting MacArthur in the decisive battle and not Nimitz (or Fletcher, who he incorrectly believed to be leading the naval forces in that sector). MacArthur was barely half-way to the village of Kokoda in central New Guinea, and was still weeks away from the northern coast. An attempt at Rabaul could only come after that campaign was finished, which could well take until May or June. Furthermore, the Gilberts were of no use to a battle in the New Guinea sector, while the gap in the ocean between Wake and Eniwetok gave the Americans a route through which they could sail the Navy into the Central Pacific. Nagumo had been warning that MacArthur may be a diversion for months, and on February 14th Yamamoto finally began drawing up a plan for battle in the Carolines or Gilberts region. His previous plan, aimed at destroying an American invasion near Rabaul, had been limited by geography: the Admiralty and other islands posed numerous obstacles for fleets moving through the Bismarck Sea. Near Truk, islands were of only slight concern.

Shortly after the Gilberts raid, Nimitz and Spruance set the date of Operation Crossbones for March 17th. Intelligence efforts soon intercepted messages suggesting that Yamamoto’s attention had turned east instead of south, and that he was located in Palau, but proved unable to intercept any detailed plans for the Japanese side of the battle. An ambush, as had been so successfully conducted during the Battle of Samoa, would be out of the question.
Japanese efforts to locate the American fleet proved similarly unsuccessful. Without the Gilberts available to provide advanced warning, there was danger of an invasion directed anywhere from the Solomons (which Yamamoto wrote off as a lost cause), to the Carolines or even the Marianas. Plans had to be drawn up for each, while Yamaguchi and Nagumo spent day after day in Palau attempting to wargame every imaginable American operation, in every case severely underestimating the strength of the US Navy and thereby returning optimistic results. Yamamoto spent his time wrangling with the Army attempting to rush reinforcements to Truk to expand the tiny garrison there, although Sugiyama would hear none of it.

On March 14th, just three days before the invasion of Truk was set to begin, Yamamoto received two messages that would change the face of the war. The first came from Tokyo, informing him that an Army truck had been spotted moving the Emperor to a new location, and that this location could be reached within a matter of days by a Navy battalion stationed in Yokosuka. The second came from a long-range bomber acting as a reconnaissance plane, flying northeast of Truk. A large American fleet was heading to the southwest, bringing invasion craft towards the Navy’s most important base outside of the Home Islands. Yamamoto immediately ordered his fleet to leave Palau, ready for battle.
The G4M that had spotted the Americans was quickly shot down by a Wildcat, but the secrecy of the mission had been blown. Spruance was certain that the Japanese knew where he was headed: there were no other targets of consequence within hundreds of kilometres. Intelligence did pick up on Yamamoto’s movements around 1700, but they still did not know what Yamamoto’s battle plan was. What they did know was that the Imperial Navy lurked nearby…

- BNC
 
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