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Looks like the Yanks are going to have an easy time taking back the Pacific, while the IJA and IJN are busy with their murderous, idiotic infighting.
Is open civil war a possibility?
And is the Emperor literally a puppet at this point? He seems to just be "there", but not at the same time.
 
Well, I guess the Japanese war effort is unravelling faster than OTL with the IJA and IJN this close to launching a civil war. Anyways, has Sugiyama, who IOTL was a "Field Marshal", taken the chance of being Japan's de facto dictator to give himself any grandiose titles or at least some ill-deserved medals?
OTL Sugiyama only became a field marshal in the middle of 1943, and considering he's been opposing the Emperor's preference for following Yamamoto's decisive battle and he's partly responsible for shooting Tojo, it is definitely possible to see him stay a general. If he promotes himself later... well seeing as I'm telling most of the Japanese side of the story through Yamamoto now, we probably wouldn't hear about it because Yamamoto wouldn't consider it legitimate.
He's definitely given himself some medals. If Japan had a "protection of the Emperor award" that's first on the list.

I like the way that Yamamoto is a water bucket in the middle of a house caughting fire.
Japanese houses had a tendency to catch fire quite easily...

Looks like the Yanks are going to have an easy time taking back the Pacific, while the IJA and IJN are busy with their murderous, idiotic infighting.
Is open civil war a possibility?
And is the Emperor literally a puppet at this point? He seems to just be "there", but not at the same time.
Yamamoto's shut down the open civil war for the moment, but a bullet in the wrong head could easily change that.

The Emperor is very much a puppet of the Army now, but no-one who wouldn't already follow Sugiyama's orders is obeying him any more (at least within the Army and Navy).

- BNC
 
If he promotes himself later... well seeing as I'm telling most of the Japanese side of the story through Yamamoto now, we probably wouldn't hear about it because Yamamoto wouldn't consider it legitimate.
You could always add stuff like "self-proclaimed" or just put quotation marks to indicate that.
 
L: For Want of a Rail (10/43)
L: For Want of a Rail, October 1943

A common strategy in the game of chess is to attempt to control the centre. Four squares from which the most moves can be made, giving a player more options than his opponent. In war, not all countries are square, but the strategy still applies. Sometimes, as it did this time, that meant controlling the railroads, the best avenues for sending the hundreds of tons of supplies needed by an army to the front as well as often providing a direct route towards whatever final objective was being sought. The Army had sent the 27th Division west to do just that, ready to begin the war’s greatest offensive yet.
Of course, no physical railroad connected the various Pacific islands, but when Nimitz had drawn a line between Oahu and Honshu, some of the islands on the nearest route had been described as a ‘railroad to Tokyo’, and the name had stuck. The first island on the Tokyo railroad was the tiny island group of Midway, which had been under unchallenged US control for the entirety of the war. The next was Wake, a similarly tiny group of three islands, taken by the Japanese just two weeks after Pearl Harbour. The target of Operation Cleaver would bring the US Navy that much closer to Japan.
As military objectives went, Wake was recognised to be a rather poor choice. The airstrip that covered half of the largest island was not sufficient for any real land-based air force, nor did the islands host a significant port that could be used as a starting point for future offensives. The Marshall islands further east would be required for both. A small number of American prisoners were being held on Wake, but if liberating prisoners was the most important objective then MacArthur’s plan to retake Java and then the Philippines would be able to rescue perhaps a thousand times as many as ‘Cleaver’. And while the Tokyo railroad looked like a good strategy on paper, beyond Wake there was only one other island on the route, the volcanic rock of Iwo Jima, which was no better a base than Wake or Midway and just as useless for a great offensive.
The decision to recapture Wake came down not to the value of Wake itself, but how it would influence Operation Wasteland, which was aimed at the Marshall islands. The Imperial Navy was still a very real threat to the Allies – it had already halved the US battleship fleet and destroyed all carriers but two in the twelve months after December 6th, 1941. Yamamoto still had three-quarters of his pre-war strength, as well as whatever ships Japan had managed to build since. If that force was sent against an American force attempting to cover an invasion of the Marshall islands, it had a good chance of doing some serious damage. By taking Wake, which was small enough as to likely fall before the IJN could protect it, Nimitz would give himself an airstrip from which recon missions could be flown, potentially several days’ warning for the Marines and the carriers that would cover them. There was also some chance that the Japanese would decide that an American-held Wake was much too dangerous, and order Yamamoto to attack it once again. If he did, he would be wasting fuel and ammo: Nimitz only intended to leave a token garrison once the Japanese were evicted. Supplying Wake would be difficult.

The 4000 Japanese defenders knew first-hand just how hard supplying Wake had been. Not enough food had ever been sent to the islands (about the only thing that had come in sufficient quantities were American bombers, which the garrison commander Rear Admiral Shigematsu Sakaibara had no interest in seeing). Supplies had grown even more scarce when the Army and Navy decided to clash over control of the island outposts, with ships being redirected several times as different commanders gave contradictory orders.
When American bombers flew over Wake again on October 5th, 1943, Sakaibara thought nothing of them. They had come before, cratering Wake’s airfield to the point that he no longer bothered to repair it. He had other priorities, among them the execution of 98 American forced labourers. They were enemy spies as far as he was concerned, reporting back so that Wake could be invaded. Unless the massive American armada that had just surrounded Wake was a decoy, there would surely be an invasion today. The untold numbers of Higgins boats coming forward soon proved that this was no decoy mission.
The machine-gun team doubling as executioners was ordered to hurry up, only for both of them to be hit by enemy fire within a couple of seconds of each other. Gunfire from the American destroyers surrounding the island had alerted the defenders, but communications had fallen apart. The admiral could see the American infantry storming ashore only a few hundred metres to the south and rushing towards his position. Not wanting to be captured, there was only one thing left to do. He took out his katana...

By nightfall, two thirds of Wake Island lay in Allied hands. The Navy had ignored MacArthur’s advice recommending a long and powerful shore bombardment in favour of a short and sudden attack, as had been done in the later stages of World War I, and the results had been less than ideal. Few Japanese fortifications had been destroyed, requiring infantry assaults to clear them out in the bloody march across the island. Only the unpreparedness of this starving garrison and the US Army’s much greater manpower had allowed the invasion force to get as far in the first day as it had. Future island assaults held no promise of an admiral more interested in committing a war crime than organising his defences.
The following day the last of the Japanese defenders were killed on Wake and smaller invasions were staged on nearby Peale and Wilkes. Engineers were landed and began repairing the heavily damaged runway, preparing it to host the Catalinas and F4U Corsairs that would soon be deployed there. Most of the invasion force was withdrawn when the fleet left, as supplying an entire division on the island was deemed too great a challenge when other priorities required attention. Those that remained would soon find that they had little to do beyond watching the strange little birds that walked around the island.

- BNC
 
At least the Wake Island rail isn't extinct.
Poor things didn't deserve to die OTL :(

Even when the Americans are not taking the most tactical choices.
It's not a total waste for the Americans. A couple of days of advanced warning that a massive Japanese fleet is coming is certainly very useful, and if that fleet shows up to oppose this mission, it's less damaging to have to retreat from Wake than say the Marshalls should something go wrong.

They managed to overrun the island thanks to the infighting.
The Japanese were outnumbered 6:1. They were screwed either way. Infighting just turned a potential Tarawa into something much less bloody.

- BNC
 
The Japanese were outnumbered 6:1. They were screwed either way. Infighting just turned a potential Tarawa into something much less bloody.
Has the Japanese opinion as to the viability of an island-fortress strategy changed?

The whole war is based on the premise that the US losses in breaking the island perimeter will be sufficient to make them accept a white peace that reflects Japanese ambition. If it looks like Japanese garrisons fall easily to US assaults, that premise becomes invalidated...
 
Has the Japanese opinion as to the viability of an island-fortress strategy changed?
Not really. The Army thinks that the Navy has just shown itself to be weak and incapable of doing a proper job, and that only they can be trusted to defend the Marshalls and Gilberts. The Navy thinks it is the Army's fault for screwing up the supply of food and other stuff to Wake (it partially is, but US submarines had a hand in that too).

The whole war is based on the premise that the US losses in breaking the island perimeter will be sufficient to make them accept a white peace that reflects Japanese ambition. If it looks like Japanese garrisons fall easily to US assaults, that premise becomes invalidated...
Army: WE STOPPED MACARTHUR IN NEW GUINEA!!!!!!
Navy: DECISIVE BATTLE!!!!!

Were all 98 POWs executed?
One of history's mysteries is the story of who escaped long enough to carve on that rock.
Some were wounded during the invasion, but all survived :) I thought the story would be better if I shot the bastards doing the war crimes.
No idea what if anything gets carved into that rock ITTL.

- BNC
 
I've been thinking...

By the end of 1943 the USA in OTL had commissioned 7 Carriers, 9 light carriers, and 35 escort carriers. I'm wondering if we might see the American light and escort CVs play a significant role in the 2nd decisive battle. Counting CVLs and especially CVEs is where you statistics like "by Layte Gulf" the Americans had more carriers than the Japanese had ships", so I find myself wondering how effective the escort carriers would be if they were forced to go to battle with the heart of the Japanese fleet directly. (There was Taffy 3 in OTL, but that was less 'fight' and more 'trying to run from and delay Yamato and friends until support drew them off'.)
 
Best use would be to keep the CVE focused on CAP and sub patrol so the big boys could focus on strikes.
A dozen CVE could maintain a huge CAP and put more Wildcats up quick.
 
I've been thinking...

By the end of 1943 the USA in OTL had commissioned 7 Carriers, 9 light carriers, and 35 escort carriers. I'm wondering if we might see the American light and escort CVs play a significant role in the 2nd decisive battle. Counting CVLs and especially CVEs is where you statistics like "by Layte Gulf" the Americans had more carriers than the Japanese had ships", so I find myself wondering how effective the escort carriers would be if they were forced to go to battle with the heart of the Japanese fleet directly. (There was Taffy 3 in OTL, but that was less 'fight' and more 'trying to run from and delay Yamato and friends until support drew them off'.)
Best use would be to keep the CVE focused on CAP and sub patrol so the big boys could focus on strikes.
A dozen CVE could maintain a huge CAP and put more Wildcats up quick.
The CVE are not forgotten...

- BNC
 
Hi everyone,
Sorry to say I don't have an update for you today :(
A few non-AH things have come up for me over the last couple of weeks, and unfortunately I haven't been able to spend the time I would like to on this. So I'll be taking a break from AH for the next couple of weeks.
The timeline is not being abandoned - I've planned out the final dozen or so chapters and once I'm able to I'll be sure to post them :) Make sure you've got the thread watched so you don't miss it.
Thanks everyone for being a part of the story so far, and I look forward to continuing Japan's Final Strike sometime in late February!

- BNC
 
LI: One Step Closer (10/43)
LI: One Step Closer, October 1943

Yamamoto frowned as he read over the telegram for the fifth time. The officer on Wake that had written it had left out a lot of details. There was a “large air presence”, but that could mean ten planes or ten thousand. Allied destroyers (about the only clear detail in the entire telegram) had bombed installations across the entire island, but no mention of whether heavier ships were there. The American infantry clearly outnumbered the garrison, but by how much it did not say. Then, “For the Emperor”, which meant nothing to a Navy man as long as the Army had a hold of him. Apparently there was already a rescue mission being planned, but that wouldn’t be able to save Wake.
“This has to be a diversion.” Yamamoto decided. “The real attack will come in the south.”
Admiral Nagumo shook his head, remembering the argument they had had six weeks ago about the very same topic. “You cannot be sure of that, sir.”
“I am sure of it.” Yamamoto said. “Wake is completely useless. It is impossible to feed anyone there – our garrison was starving to death the entire time they occupied it. The airstrip is too small to fly any large force off, and you’d have to ship in fuel from a thousand miles away to use it. There’s hardly a dock, much less a proper port facility, and it’s in the middle of nowhere. If the Americans were going to attack the north of the defensive perimeter, this telegram would be saying that Kwajalein or Tarawa was under attack.”
“Sir, perhaps the Americans wanted to cover their northern flank.” Nagumo said. “Another attack could be on the way.”
“Wake is about the size of a bird dropping.” Yamamoto said. “It can’t cover anything. The only reason they would ever attack it is if they wanted me to see them taking it. They know I still have a fleet. If I send the fleet to Wake, it’s not there to defend the Philippines, or more likely Java first, when MacArthur comes parading back in.”
“You could be wrong.” Nagumo warned. “We can’t afford to not be ready again. Wake didn’t matter, but if we let them take the Marshalls then the entire outer perimeter is compromised.”
“I’m not wrong.” Yamamoto said. “My judgement hasn’t failed me yet this war, and I see no reason for that to change. Besides, they’ve told me where they’re coming.”
He pulled out a leaflet that had been captured by the garrison in the Philippines and made its way back to Tokyo. Two thirds of it was Douglas MacArthur’s face, the bottom third the words ‘I Shall Return’.
“Draft a plan to fight them near Kwajalein if you must.” Yamamoto said. “I’m going to prepare to sink MacArthur.”

***

The invasion of Wake had been something of a disappointment for the Allies as well. The ground offensive had taken nearly thirty-one hours, well short of the eight or nine that had been expected. Wake had not been nearly so well defended as New Guinea, and evidence of poor supply and even worse leadership was strewn around the island. The island’s small size, combined with its lack of defensible terrain, should have led to a rapid victory. Instead they had suffered several hundred casualties, and only the news of the liberation of the 98 prisoners on the island prevented the battle from attracting any public criticism.
Wake did prompt the Joint Chiefs to take another look at the reports MacArthur had sent following his landings in New Guinea, largely ignored until now due to MacArthur’s poor relationship with Washington. MacArthur’s casualties had been proportionally far heavier than anything seen on Wake, but most of them had been suffered during the advance into the New Guinea interior and the urban battle of Port Moresby. Wake had no interior, neither did any of the atolls marked for invasion as part of Operation Wasteland. The beach battles, as much as they could be, had been successful. There would be no need to dig the Japanese out of hillside bunkers in the Marshall islands either.
MacArthur’s proposal for a heavy shore bombardment certainly looked like a good addition for Wasteland. While MacArthur had only had access to four fleet carriers, six were set to be used in the Marshalls operation now that the first four Essex-class ships had entered service, and huge numbers of smaller escort carriers were coming out of shipyards to join them. The story was similar for battleships, with five modern battleships now operating in the Pacific and many older ships available to join them if the need arose. If what MacArthur said about gunfire support was true, the defenders of the Marshall islands would have little hope of surviving the pre-invasion bombardment.

Wake had been a disappointment for another reason, although one that the United States had no real control over. New Guinea had sparked a string of deaths of high-ranking officers, particularly members of the Imperial Navy. Decoded intercepts didn’t reveal the true cause of these deaths, but the Japanese Army and Navy had been feuding for quite some time, and Imperial Japan had a history of “rule by assassination” particularly in the 1930s. If the Japanese wanted to kill of their officer corps in what was close to a miniature civil war, that could only work to the Allies’ benefit. One particularly strange message sent by Yamamoto to General Doihara, threatening an outright blockade of half the Japanese empire, certainly suggested such an eventuality.
After Wake, there had been no more disappearances among the Japanese top brass, no more “unfortunate accidents” or even deaths claimed to be of natural causes. The Japanese were no longer killing each other, and the Minister of War was no longer a relative unknown, but now an infamous criminal brute, who would very likely be at the top of the list in any post-war war crimes trials, at least if the assassins didn’t get to him first.
Yamamoto remained as frustratingly “off the map” as ever. Navy codes hadn’t changed, but there were no messages indicating that the Combined Fleet had moved. That had greatly helped at Wake, but Yamamoto was well known to be both a gambler (and so far a very lucky one at that) and very aggressive. He would show up somewhere, sometime soon. Everyone in the American high command wanted advance warning when he did.

- BNC
 
I wonder what the Americans would do to the Indonesian nationalist leaders once they take over Java as many of them collaborated with the Japanese IOTL? Could the American invasion/landings there affect Indonesia's road to independence?
 
I wonder what the Americans would do to the Indonesian nationalist leaders once they take over Java as many of them collaborated with the Japanese IOTL? Could the American invasion/landings there affect Indonesia's road to independence?
Depends how much of a say the Dutch are given. Either they'll find an Indonesian nationalist who didn't back Japan (at least too obviously) to lead the country or ensure that the Dutch governors are given their jobs back. Likely still results in a quick independence post-war.

- BNC
 
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