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Did the Japanese not attack the Aleutian Islands ITTL?
Without Midway, there's no reason to. And the fuel needed for the operation probably wasn't there anyway.

And how goes the war in China?
Front lines are about the same as OTL by this stage. Ichi-go will still be launched in some form, but after heavy Japanese losses in their 1943 offensive it will be a smaller scale operation.

- BNC
 
LVI: Power of Production (3/44)
LVI: Power of Production, March 1944

By March 1944, the US Navy was by far the largest navy in the world, and nowhere was this more obvious than in the Central Pacific. US Task Force 39 had included more than half of the major American ships in the theatre since the invasion of Wake, and had been continually reinforced throughout the past year. By the time Yamamoto left Tokyo Bay in preparation for the decisive battle, which both sides knew would be fought somewhere near, probably north of, Japan’s major base at Truk, Task Force 39 had grown to a truly staggering size.
Yamamoto had long believed that in the decisive battle he would be facing around six to eight American carriers, and felt that his own eleven would give him the advantage in a battle that would likely be fought entirely in the air, with neither side’s ships seeing each other. Had Yamamoto considered only full-sized fleet carriers, he would have accurately guessed Spruance’s strength of seven: two veterans of the campaigns of 1942 in Saratoga and Hornet, and five newer carriers (Essex, Lexington, Yorktown, Bunker Hill and Intrepid), four of which had seen their first major action at Wake.
Spruance’s total carrier force grew to twenty-five decks once smaller ships were also counted. These included seven Independence-class light carriers (Independence, Princeton, Belleau Wood, Cowpens, Monterey, Langley and Cabot), and a further eleven escort carriers (Sangamon, Suwannee, Chenango, Santee, Casablanca, Liscombe Bay, Corregidor, Port Moresby, Timor, Fiji and New Caledonia).

Japanese intelligence efforts also greatly underestimated the strength of the American battle line, believing most of it to have been sunk at Pearl Harbour and several more lost in the actions of 1942. Yamamoto’s ten battleships were more than enough for the three or four Americans he expected to encounter, but only gave him parity with Spruance’s surface fleet, which was made up of the Pennsylvania, Tennessee, California, North Carolina, South Dakota, Indiana, Massachusetts, Alabama, Iowa and New Jersey.
Spruance could also call upon eight heavy cruisers and seven light, to Yamamoto’s seven and two respectively. Fifty-two destroyers would provide escort for the fleet, which also included a huge number of tankers, minesweepers, other supporting vessels and the landing craft that would allow 30,000 Marines to storm ashore and capture Truk.
Only in submarines did Yamamoto have a clear advantage, with no fewer than fifteen patrolling the waters north and east of Truk, where the battle was set to take place. American intelligence had yet to discover any major Japanese plans for the battle, forcing Spruance to guess Yamamoto’s strategy, but the signals teams had managed to intercept several orders describing the intended positions of many of these submarines. Efforts to sink those submarines that were known by March 15th proved unsuccessful however, as most were out of position. Yamamoto had hoped to ambush the American fleet before it could reach the Carolines, instead the only notable occurrence that day happened when the I-22 sank as a result of an accident.

One of Spruance’s submarines, the Paddle, had spotted part of the Japanese fleet shortly after it left port at Palau, finally confirming that this was going to be the battle that the Japanese had been waiting for. No-one among the American high command had any doubt that they would be fighting almost the entire Imperial Navy, and while intelligence was correct in believing that the Americans had a numerical advantage, the advantage was not so great as to allow the fleet to be recklessly divided into small groups.
Keeping the entire fleet together as one gargantuan mass would not be ideal either. At least until the invasion force could be landed and the transports unloaded, the advantage of mobility would lie with the Japanese. Any ships committed to the invasion, most importantly those tasked with protecting the vast transport and cargo fleet, would be forced to stay fairly close to Truk. Ships not directly assigned to the Truk mission would still need to stay within a few hundred kilometres of the island, in case Yamamoto struck the invasion fleet with his full force, in order to make supporting that fleet possible. The Japanese on the other hand had complete freedom to move throughout the Central Pacific before making their move. Intelligence had picked up on a major reaction in Tokyo after the sinking of two tankers at the end of the previous year, but the thought of the Japanese running out of fuel mid-battle was never taken seriously. Truk was in the very centre of the Japanese Empire. It was unthinkable that they would not be able to fight here.

Spruance thus decided to split his forces into two major groups. The first group (TF 39.1) was placed under Admiral Richmond Turner, who was tasked with protecting the invasion force and ensuring Truk was captured. As this force could not be moved without dooming the landing effort, the three slower battleships (Pennsylvania, Tennessee and California) were assigned to the force, in a conscious effort to avoid making the same mistake that had doomed Halsey in the previous great battle. If everything went according to plan, the battleships would not need to do anything more than provide gunfire support to the invasion, which was to be conducted in accordance with MacArthur’s suggestions. In the event that Yamamoto attempted to destroy the invasion force, battleship fire would be directed at any Japanese ships that came within range. As these would likely be surface vessels, Turner was also assigned four fast battleships, the Indiana, Massachusetts, Alabama and New Jersey. The eleven escort carriers, to slow to be attached to the main battle fleet, would provide air cover to the group, which was also assigned three heavy and three light cruisers.
Having extensively studied Yamamoto’s previous battles, off New Caledonia and the South Pacific, Spruance felt confident that once again it would be the carriers that decided the battle, and in all likelihood his opponent would target them at the first opportunity. Placing his second group (TF 39.2) under Admiral Marc Mitscher, Spruance concentrated the best of his carrier force into a huge strike force. The seven smaller decks were filled with fighters and ordered to maintain a massive combat air patrol; the seven large carriers (including Spruance’s flagship, the Saratoga) would hunt the Imperial Navy’s best ships.
Although three battleships and a swarm of smaller surface vessels were part of this group, Spruance was determined to avoid a surface battle if at all possible. The Japanese surface fleet had proven itself time and again to be a fearsome opponent, and the US Navy had come off second best many of those times. Mitscher was given orders to retreat to the east if the Japanese attempted to engage the carriers in a gunnery duel. This fight was to be decided in the skies. Judging by the atrocious performance given by Japanese airmen over the past year, Spruance was confident of a decisive victory.

- BNC
 
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This is going to be awesome. I hope. Hopefully the Japanese can put up a real fight unlike the Turkey Shoots of OTL.
Judging by the atrocious performance given by Japanese airmen over the past year, Spruance was confident of a decisive victory.
Fighting the Army has gotten them cocky, even if Japanese planes are old.
 
eleven escort carriers (Sangamon, Suwannee, Chenango, Santee, Casablanca, Liscombe Bay, Corregidor, Port Moresby, Timor, Fiji and New Caledonia).
I assume the agreement to not use other navy's names hasn't been made yet?
I appreciate that they are battle names, but it is a bit cheeky the last four are all territories belonging to allies rather than enemies.
 
Decisive battles are known for producing just two things: heroes and corpses.
For the famously cautious Spruance to end up in a situation so bad he is KIA would require ASB levels of luck on the side of the Japanese, who honestly used up all their luck. Their pilots will go in not used to the new USN fighters and will be highly outnumbered.

Not likely as the person that received the FAdm rank over him IOTL is dead IT
Halsey got himself and many men killed in an overaggressive gambit. Even that SOB Vinson won't be able to block promotion for Spruance when he commanded the decisive victory over the IJN.
 

Errolwi

Monthly Donor
Nice call-out on the US perception of the Japanese fuel state, I was thinking if pausing the landing for a few days was viable...

One point on force allocation:
and a further eleven escort carriers
Eight aircraft carriers (four CVLs and four CVEs)

The CVEs are slow, correct? Having them with the main carrier group will limit their options (and the US is on to the speed aspect re battleships).
 
I am not sure that they would be allowed. During the war a system was set up to prevent different allies using ship names that were already in use. Eg. the USS Canberra recognized the loss of HMAS Canberra. Guess which navy wasn't able to use "Canberra" until the 1980s.

In this case HMS Enterprise has been happily chugging along since 1926. Depends when the agreement was reached.
 
I assume the agreement to not use other navy's names hasn't been made yet?
Until now I wasn't aware that there was an agreement. But screw it, the names are cool, so I'll say that any British or other ships carrying the names got sunk earlier in the war and now the Americans can have the names :)

Nice call-out on the US perception of the Japanese fuel state, I was thinking if pausing the landing for a few days was viable...
Pausing the landing is a possibility, but I can't imagine that it would be good for morale, and if the Japanese find the ships somewhere in the ocean then there is a good chance Yamamoto will try to sink them. They're probably safer unloading on Truk and waiting out the battle there, potentially knocking out some major Japanese facilities while they're at it (Truk has a few radar stations, several air strips, fuel storage and a whole lot of other things), than they are waiting out to sea somewhere.

The CVEs are slow, correct? Having them with the main carrier group will limit their options (and the US is on to the speed aspect re battleships).
Exactly. Good speed for CAP for the older BBs and troop ships, but would hinder the fleet CVs.
Good catch! Must have missed that when I was writing the chapter.
I'll swap the CVLs and CVEs around before I post the next update so that Spruance isn't locked into another dumb plan :)

Did the USN not rename an under construction CV in honour of the Enterprise?
"Under Construction" would be about right ;)

- BNC
 
LVII: Decisive Battle (3/44)
LVII: Decisive Battle, March 1944

The dawn of March 17th, 1944, heralded the beginning of yet another great amphibious operation. ‘Crossbones’ would seek to capture several key islands that made up the Truk Lagoon in the centre of the Caroline islands, finally defeating Japan’s most valuable bastion in the Central Pacific. Truk had been home to large parts of the Imperial Fleet at various times during the war, and had been the launching point of a wide range of offensives, directed against Rabaul, Port Moresby, the Solomons and Fiji. The time had come for revenge.
The rivalry between the Japanese Army and Navy had become such a massive issue in no small part due to each side’s belief in how the eastern defensive perimeter should be handled, and Truk had been at the very centre of this dispute. Radio communications between the two services had been frequent and angry, but the Japanese had not known that Allied intelligence was intercepting the overwhelming majority of them. Ten months of argument had allowed them to put together a very detailed picture of the defences around the lagoon, given to America’s leading admirals as they planned the invasion. Much to Yamamoto’s frustration, the forces allocated to Truk were underwhelming considering the value the region had to the Japanese. Including a recent reinforcement effort, just 7000 Japanese soldiers were available to defend the base. They were to be opposed by a force four times their number.
Around 0600, the Marines began to land. Supported by the gunfire of seven battleships and a range of smaller vessels, they quickly secured beachheads on many of the islands, while airstrikes launched from Spruance’s carriers destroyed gun emplacements and other installations across the atoll. The airstrip on Eten island, the smallest of the three around Truk, was quickly put out of action, as were three of the four radar stations in the area. Several squadrons of Zeroes scrambled to oppose the American bombers, but the novice pilots manning them proved no match for the Hellcats and Corsairs serving as escorts. But as the dogfight raged on and the Marines were held up on the eastern coast of Moen island, eight Japanese recon planes got off the ground. Two were spotted and soon shot down. The others went off to find the American fleet, no matter the cost.

Four hundred kilometres to the northwest, Yamamoto was carefully monitoring the situation from on board the Musashi. Truk, the Americans’ invasion target, would be the most important part of his plan during the battle. As long as Japanese forces were still fighting on the islands, a part of the American fleet would have to operate nearby or their vast array of transport ships, most still loaded with supplies for the Marines, would be exposed. If reports from the ground were accurate, at least five American battleships were providing fire support to the invading troops, which after Pearl Harbour and subsequent losses, was sure to be their entire battle line. Yamamoto took this as evidence that the Americans were not properly prepared for a battle.
Truk was essential to the Japanese plans for another reason. Only very few of his ships were equipped with radar sets, so the sole surviving radar station on the ground would be very important in locating Allied aircraft. Failing that, he would be relying on reconnaissance aircraft, and with most of his carriers loaded with as many fighters and bombers as could be crammed into the hangars, it would fall to the planes based at Truk’s three (now two effective) airfields to locate the US fleet. In the mid-morning, they did just that, spotting several of Spruance’s carriers about 200 kilometres east-north-east of Truk. When Yamamoto was given the report, he immediately noticed a problem: there were many more American carriers than he had expected to fight. Yet this was the decisive battle: the American force had to be crushed no matter how large. There was no opportunity to rethink the plans now. This was the time to act.

Keeping only a minimal force of fighters back in reserve, Yamamoto ordered his planes into the sky. Their orders were simple: to fly directly towards where the American carriers had just been located, and to deliver an all-out attack. Surface vessels were to be ignored, left for a second air strike or a massive battleship battle. Only by disabling the American carriers could Yamamoto ensure that his fleet would not be exposed to potentially devastating retaliation.
Yamamoto’s strategy was more sophisticated than merely hitting hardest and fastest. Six hundred kilometres to the south, Admiral Nagumo commanded a second Japanese force containing four smaller carriers (the Hiyo, Junyo, Chiyoda and Chitose) and a handful of surface ships. Currently far to the south of Truk, Nagumo was tasked with staying out of sight of the Americans long enough to reach the eastern part of the Caroline island chain. Yamamoto and Yamaguchi would engage the main body of the American fleet with the bulk of Japan’s carrier forces, while the battleships pushed forward in the hopes that they could force the Americans into a choice of two bad options. Either they engage the Japanese surface fleet, where they would be promptly crushed by the three Yamatos, or they would retreat away from the battleships. This would lead them towards the southeast, where Nagumo would be waiting to ambush them. Once the main American fleet had been destroyed, those ships supporting the invasion of Truk would be easy pickings for the Combined Fleet.

***

On board the Saratoga, Admiral Spruance’s command had fast become a scene of chaos. The Japanese carriers had found him before he had found them, and now he had to face the full force of Yamamoto’s finest airmen. Radar had given the carriers a fair amount of warning, but many of his carriers had been receiving planes returning from the morning’s raids on Truk when the alerts came in, leaving the defences less powerful than he would have liked.
His radio operator looked up, wearing an expression that told Spruance the news would be bad. “Sir, we’ve lost at least twenty fighters from the northern carriers alone.”
“Veterans.” Spruance muttered. “Just when we thought we’d cleared them out for good.”
“Admiral Mitscher is reporting that the Princeton and Cowpens have suffered heavy damage,” the radio operator said.
“Any word on the Jap carriers?” Spruance asked.
“No sir,” the operator replied.
“Tell Marc to find them,” Spruance ordered. “and I’ll want a counterattack ready to be launched when he does.”
“Yes sir,” the operator said.
After a moment, a loud explosion shook the carrier. Somewhere to the north, Yamamoto had just sunk yet another American ship.

- BNC
 
Six hundred kilometres to the south, Admiral Nagumo commanded a second Japanese force containing four smaller carriers (the Hiyo, Junyo, Chiyoda and Chitose) and a handful of surface ships
What is Yammamoto thinking? He needs to concentrate his inferior force for a massive strike, not split them up! This smaller force will have no effect on the battle, as the Americans wont retreat. He should have kept all decks on hand, even if just as a distraction.
 
What is Yammamoto thinking? He needs to concentrate his inferior force for a massive strike, not split them up! This smaller force will have no effect on the battle, as the Americans wont retreat. He should have kept all decks on hand, even if just as a distraction.
When he designed that plan, he thought that he would have the superior force. And it wouldn't be an IJN battle plan if it didn't require the opponent to do something stupid.

- BNC
 
When he designed that plan, he thought that he would have the superior force. And it wouldn't be an IJN battle plan if it didn't require the opponent to do something stupid.

- BNC

It is quite remarkable that Yammamoto was the most wary of the IJN commanders regarding the US, and even he disregarded the US's massive production capacity. There is simply no way his fleet can put 25 Decks under, and with half of them putting up a massive CAP, this will be a massacre. Especially as the US have almost certainly loaded up their fleet carriers with nothing but strike planes. Not as bad as the Turkey Shoot, as Yammamoto actually has pilots, but it will be close. Yammamoto's strike just doesn't have the capacity to sink the US fleet, and even if he mauls the TF he is facing now, he will get slaughtered by the landing one. Lets break this down.

Yammammoto has 11 decks, 4 Main Carriers, 2 Semi-Light Carriers, and 5 Light Carriers. The fleet carriers each hold 91 ish aircraft, times 4 brings it up to 346. The 2 Semi Light Carriers hold 50 each, so you add that and you get 346. Then you add the 7 Light Carriers, but subtrct the 4 going on Yammamoto's brain fart. These hold roughly 15 each, bringing the total Japanese aircraft for the battle up to roughly 509 planes. Divide this by 3 to get the CAP, and that's 169 (nice) planes on CAP and 340 Jap planes heading for the American TF.

Spruance on the other hand has 25 decks, although they too are split into 2 Task Forces. Lets start with TF 39.2 the one seeking the Japs fleet. This has all 7 of the American Fleet carriers, each of which carry 90 Aircraft all of which may or may not be on Strike duty due to the Light Carriers loading on the CAP. That brings the US strike numbers up to 630 planes (if they are all on strike), more than the entire Japanese fleet's air arm. If they aren't, than it is only 420 planes on Strike, which is more than enough to level the Japanese fleet. The 7 Independence Class CVL's each carry 33 planes, all of which are fighters, bringing the American CAP up to 231, (if all the American Carriers are on strike), or up to 441 fighters, more than enough to destroy any Japanese Strike. Going off of the Update saying the CAP was having trouble getting a screen up due to them recovering a strike, I would say the American Carriers are not fully loaded with strike planes, and do have some Fighters on board, giving them a CAP of 441. Combine this with the American's effective AAA, the Japanese strike is about to get spanked, and the counterblow will be crushing.

TF 39.2 has the Battleships and the CVE's which makes it an easier target if Yammamoto mauls TF 39.2 . They have 13 CVE's, which carry 28 planes each, giving a total of 364 Planes to deal with. Divide by 3 to get the CAP, and that gives you 122 fighters on CAP. Not nearly as many as in TF 39.2, but with the beating the Japanese will take from TF 39.2 even if they destroy it, plus the AAA guns, it may be enough to defeat a Strike. the 242 planes available to hit the Japanese fleet however are FAR more dangerous, as they outnumber the Japanese CAP, which has already taken a beating from TF 39.2 's Counter Strike. They have a real opportunity to destroy the Japanese fleet, and even if their carriers are sunk, they can land on the Island if the marines can take and hold an airfield. All and all, TF 39.1 is about equal to the Japanese in planes, but due to the losses the Japanese will take fighting TF 39.2, I would give TF 39.1 the advantage if it came down to it.

Your statements about the American battle line have me confused however. You said that:

The first group (TF 39.1)… he three slower battleships (Pennsylvania, Tennessee and California) were assigned to the force, in a conscious effort to avoid making the same mistake that had doomed Halsey in the previous great battle. If everything went according to plan, the battleships would not need to do anything more than provide gunfire support to the invasion, which was to be conducted in accordance with MacArthur’s suggestions.

And:

Turner was also assigned four fast battleships, the Indiana, Massachusetts, Alabama and New Jersey.

These both say that Turner gets all 7 Battleships, but later you said this:

Although three battleships and a swarm of smaller surface vessels were part of this group, Spruance was determined to avoid a surface battle if at all possible.

This contradicts the previous two statements, as previously it was said that all 7 Battleships were with Turner, yet here there are 3 with Spruance? I am very confused.

TLDR: The Japs are Fucked.
 
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