No GNW (or “Peter goes South”)

Well Hungary is now free and independent nation, now all it needs to do is use said freedom to crush the attempt of minorities trying to do the same.

I admit i'm curious what direction the PLC will go next on one hand it ''retook'' land that has been lost for centuries and could lead to some desires that threaten their current rather nice situation they have with Prussia and Russia. On the other the PLC is well the PLC and I can well imagine it taking years maybe even decades to beating it's new subjects rightful place in the kingdom, given the recent revolution that occurred in this and nobilities understandable dislike of this idea given what they do, can't have these ideas catch on and spread to their own estates after all.
 
Alright, thought I would do a demographic update. Here is the population ATL based on OTL population distribution. Also shows OTL population and population rank.
1. Russia: ~61 million (68 million OTL), will be lowball
2. France: ~43.5 million (36 OTL), will be lowball
4. United Kingdom: 27.5 million (same as OTL)
5. Ottoman Empire: ~24 million (25 OTL) plus ~23 million in nominal vassals
3. Austria: ~21 million (36 OTL)
7. Spain: 14.8 million (same as OTL)
N/A Poland: ~12 million
N/A Hungary: ~12 million
6. Prussia: ~11.5 million (16.7 OTL)
8. Two Sicilies: ~10 million (same as OTL)
9. Sweden: ~9.5 million (4.9 OTL), will be lowball
No other European country has a population exceeding 4 million.

Now Russia probably has a similar population to OTL, the lack of Poland/Baltic offset by a better administration and as a result more natural growth. To be honest, OTL went pretty badly for Russia and yet they managed to be one of two superpowers. ATL with a wealthier, better run, more industrialized Russia, they will naturally transition into being the world's first superpower in the early 1900s. In theory that could raise a coalition against them at some point, but that is a lot harder than OTL. Like OTL a coalition of the British, France, Prussia, and Austria came close to happening against Russia during the Crimean War (although it was not in any danger of superpowerhood at that point). However, ATL there are a lot more medium powers that don't get along, an ATL equivalent coalition of similar power would require Prussia, Austria, Hungary, and Poland to be buddies together which seems a bit of a stretch.

Also, note that Prussia is much weaker than OTL especially since I cannot imagine what their army is like (in the negative sense) based on OTL leadership and without the kick in the pants of the War of the Fourth Coalition. Now Austria is also considerably weaker, but it is still going to be quite a struggle for Prussia, especially since Austria will find it easier to play the German unification game without its eastern territories.

The line between Great and Secondary Powers is a lot blurrier ATL. OTL all the great powers except Russia (who punched below its population) had a population between 16.7 and 36 million ignoring colonies. Ignoring Spain and the Two Sicilies who punched below their weight also, then everyone else in Europe was under 5 million. ATL there are a lot of countries in the high-end secondary power range with a population ~10 million.
 
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After the war
237. After the war.

…Her Majesty's Government had taken no steps to offer their mediation between Austria and Hungary, and the Austrian Government had intimated no desire for such mediation.”
Palmerston, HC Debate 11 May 1849
That oath was taken on the 11th of April, 1848, by the Emperor Ferdinand II.; he guaranteed the existence of a separate diet; he guaranteed liberty of the press; he made those promises in 1848; he broke them perfidiously in 1849. Should he be told, with these proofs, that the Hungarian kingdom was not as free and independent a kingdom as Hanover, or any other kingdom attached to a larger State? The perfidy of this Austrian Court had never been fully and fairly put before the people of England.”
Palmerston, HC Deb 21 July 1849
He passed over the commercial advantages which would be derived by this country, and they would be very great, for our ancient ally, of which hon. Gentlemen and noble Lords heard so much, had always imposed a duty of 60 per cent on English merchandise. He passed over the commercial advantages to be derived by this country by the recognition of the free and independent kingdom of Hungary.”
Bernal Osborn, HC Deb 21 July 1849
“He sometimes forgot the promises made to him, the commitments he made, the duty of his high position, but he never forgot one thing: that he was Habsburg.”
Princess Radziwill about FJI


Tempest on the Thames.

While the fighting was going on, the British government was busily engaged in doing nothing because, and this applied to all political class, it was facing a dilemma. On one hand the Hapsburg monarchy was considered an important factor in maintaining a balance in Europe and restraining the infringement of Russia upon the potential British commercial interests in the Danube region with the optimistic assessment of such a potential up to 16,000,000£. On another hand, it was pointed out that FJI is not an “ally” because there is no active mutual defense treaty, that his claim to the Hungarian throne is illegitimate (and so are his actions), that even his imperial title is rather a matter of courtesy because so far it was not confirmed by the Electors (who were reluctant do say “yes” until the Hungarian issue is settled out of fear to get involved in an ongoing conflict ending up on a wrong side) and even his accession to the Austrian throne was result of a coup by the unsavory reactionary camarilla. Then, the methods used by his troops in Hungary were not acceptable: of course, everybody agreed that application of force to the lower classes may be a regrettable necessity but flogging the noble women and hanging the Protestant and Catholic priests could not be defined as anything but “atrocity”. As for the potential profits, they surely were not happening under the Austrian rule because it was taxing the British imports at 60%.

Situation changed after the Peace of Bruck was signed because this peace was surely strengthening the Russian position in the region. But “testing the water” on the continent did not indicate any significant pro-Austrian sentiment. FWIV of Prussia had nothing against his nephew getting the Hungarian crown because, the family links aside, this was strengthening Prussian position within the HRE making the Erfurt Union more attractive. Prince-President of France was only glad to see Austria weakened both because this may simplify future strengthening of the French position in Italy and because he fully expected that independent Hungary will be more open to the French trade interests than Hapsburg monarchy was; plus, of course, there were family links and mutually advantageous partnership with Russia. Among the German Electors Wurttemberg was pretty much in the Russian pocket, neither Saxony nor Bavaria were eager to stick their necks out for Hapsburg’s sake and more or less the same applied to most of the rest with the possible exception of the political and territorial nobodies like Elector of Salzburg and Elector of Würzburg.

As a result, the best course was seemingly to denounce FJI and proclaim support of the Hungarian cause. Of course, with the independence already won, the practical value of such a support was minimal but it was positioning Britain on the right side.

It had been said, look how you have been treating your ancient ally as if the claim of the Emperor Francis Joseph to the kingdom of Hungary was a legal claim. He maintained, in the face of all Europe, that the Emperor Francis Joseph was at this time an usurper in the kingdom of Hungary. He maintained, that by the laws of Hungary he was, technically speaking, a "foreigner" at this moment, and that as such he was not able to take the throne. He was neither king de facto or de jure, till he was crowned, and had taken the oaths according to the compact. What was the third article of the Hungarian constitution coo-firmed by Ferdinand I. in 1596, sworn to in 1790, and again in 1848?— The King of Hungary cannot be discharged from the duties of sovereignty without consent of the nation, the Diet having the appointment of a regency in case of incompetence or resignation of the King.What course had been pursued? This unfortunate and well-meaning Emperor, our "ancient ally," Ferdinand II., had been shuffled off the throne, and Francis Joseph, not the lineal successor, but the nephew, was put upon the throne. Would any one say, that Francis Joseph was at this time rightful King of Hungary? He said, that Francis Joseph might be Emperor of Austria. He was not King of Hungary. He was at this moment an usurper—a foreigner to the institutions of the Hungarians, who were engaged in a righteous and holy cause.” Palmerston

Even the term “insurrection” freely used earlier now required a clarification. Lord J. Russel explained “that when he used the word insurrection, he thought he had applied the proper term. He did not, however, mean to assert by that term that this was an unjust and unprovoked insurrection. He had used the term which he thought at the time was most applicable to the case.”
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To which Mr. Ralph Bernal contributed: “ The noble Lord was quite correct; he used the term without reflection, which, although signifying illegality in this country [Britain], in Hungary signified what was legal and right; for when they made a levy en masse in defence of their liberties, the Hungarian term used, was insurrectio; and when the Hungarian diet in 1741 said, Vitam et sanguinem pro nostra rege, that was insurrectio in the Hungarian sense of the word; that was, indeed, an insurrection in a good sense. It was the legal term of Hungary. Long might such insurrections be in fashion!”
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As a result, the diplomatic dust had been settled and congratulations to the newly-crowned King Szilard I of Hungary had been extended. The Russian troops, to everybody’s relief, had been marching home leaving the former Grand Duke to build his liberal paradise.


Hapsburg Empire (problems, problems)
With the war being over FJI finally got himself formally elected as the HRE Emperor and was now free to subject his remaining subjects to what he considered to be a “paternal care”: after all, the Hapsburg Empire was supposed to be one big family of which he was a father.
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Of course, he was facing very serious problems and some of them required immediate solutions, especially one. The Emperor had a habit to get up at 4am and make a stroll across the halls of Schoenbrunn. At that early time the servicewomen had been cleaning the dust in the halls, many of them staying on the ladders to clean things placed high on the walls. Etiquette required that at the Emperor’s appearance each of them must do a curtsy. The question was how can they doing it while staying on the ladder? Situation was desperate and had been discussed by the imperial ministers with no obsolution found until Prince Schwarzenberg returned from his diplomatic mission and declared that “the Emperor does not notice the servicewomen.” And this was just one of the countless challenges facing FJI. Admittedly, most of the rest were much less serious.

The period 1849–60 was later called the Neoabsolutist era because it was the last effort by an Austrian emperor to provide good government by relying solely on bureaucratic effectiveness. In doing so, it was the legitimate descendant of the governments of Joseph II and Metternich. After Schwarzenberg’s death in 1852, the new regime passed largely to the direction of Alexander, Freiherr (baron) von Bach, minister of the interior and a competent bureaucrat.
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Despite its reputation as a repressive instrument, Bach’s government was not without positive accomplishments. It established a unified customs territory for the whole monarchy, composed a code for trades and crafts, completed the task of serf emancipation, and introduced improvements in universities and secondary schools. He also reduced freedom of the press and abandoned public trials and allowed the Catholic Church to take control over education and family life. His reforms of the military had not been too successful and came at the expense of a slower economic growth.
1666652074434.jpeg

The emperor himself ran the military, as head of a newly centralised supreme command, with four armies headquartered in Vienna, Verona and Prague. The emperor intervened in the direction of operations in all aspects of the military. His adviser was Field Marshal Grunne, who was patronised by Archduchess Sophie, the emperor’s mother, and was the former chamberlain of Franz Joseph. Army expenses exploded over the next decade reaching up to 42% of the budget while at the same time as army effectiveness declined. Pay remained abysmally low, even though there were plenty of candidates. The officer corps was more than fifty per cent foreign-born by 1859. In July 1852, a univeral conscription law was passed, with eight years in full service and two in reserve but it never was fully enforced and few of the recruits had been kept for the full term. New weapons, such as the percussion rifle, had been introduced but training and tactical support did not follow. Pay, rations and rate of a corporal punishment did not change noticeably. Only artillery and newly-created gendarmerie service got an adequate attention.

By 1848 the industrial revolution already started in Lower Austria and Czechia. Actually, the first British-made steam engine had been installed on one of the factories in Brno in 1816 and by 1840s there were 30 of them with the numbers slowly but steadily growing. The railroads construction started but by 1846 their total length was only 148 km. The problem which was facing the Hapsburg Empire now was that it used to count upon the cheap raw materials and agricultural products coming from the lands of Hungarian Crown and, at least for a short while, this will not be the case. Of course, iron, coal, lead and other materials had also been available in the areas which remained under the Hapsburg control. Due to availability of large reserves of coal, iron, as well as other resources Bohemia and Moravia accounted for 90% of coal production, 82% brown coal production and over 90% of steel smelting. The timber and wood-processing industries kept growing but so far mostly for the domestic consumption.

And, because the Hapsburg territories still being predominantly agricultural, the food was not a critical problem so the situation was, contrary to a popular definition, serious but not desperate. Another favorable factor was closeness of Czechia to the German border - the German states were traditional consumers of the manufactured products of that region.

With the adjustment to the loss of the income from Hungarian territories, the revenues kept steadily growing. Putting aside the extraordinary receipts from the Sardinian war indemnity and the Lombardo-Venetian confiscations, the transformation of the Austrian peasant into a landholder has of course increased the tax-paying power of the country and the revenue derived from the land tax [1]. At the same time the abolition of the patrimonial courts brought the income, which the aristocracy had formerly enjoyed from their private administration of justice, into the coffers of the State, and this branch of revenue has been constantly increasing since 1849. Then a considerable increase arose from the income-tax, introduced by the patent of October 29, 1849. This tax has proved particularly productive in the Italian provinces of Austria.

But on this the good news were pretty much over because financial situation was anything but cheerful. The disturbances in Galicia, at the end of February, 1846, augmented the public expenditures by more than 10,000,000 florins compared with 1845. The army expenses were the principal cause of this increased outlay. They amounted to 50,624,120 florins, in 1845, but in 1846 raised 7,000,000 more, while the administrative expenses of the provinces rose 2,000,000. In 1847 the commercial crisis and the bad harvest produced a great diminution in the excise revenue, while the army budget rose to 64,000,000, chiefly in consequence of troubles in Italy. The deficit of that year was 7,000,000. In 1848-9 the revenue of whole provinces was lost, besides the war expenses in Italy and Hungary. In 1848 the deficit was 45,000,000 florins, and in 1849, 121,000,000. [2] State paper of compulsory currency, to the sum of 76,000,000, Three-per-Cents, was issued in 1849. Long before this, the National Bank had stopped specie payments, and its issues were declared by the Government to be inconvertible. The paper money had been discounted at 60% and the expenses kept “progressing” in the same direction. During the Hungarian Revolution Austrian National Bank lost 53% of its silver forcing the government to forbid export of gold and silver out of the country. The attempts to obtain foreign loans failed and the government had to start domestic forced “borrowing” with the further fall of the paper currency. Only in the middle 1850s there will be a comprehensive reform which put finances in order … and caused negative reaction of the conservatives who did not want any serious changes in anything.

Hapsburg Empire. FJI.
With the war over and ending not as bad as it could, those who mattered at the Imperial Court had feeling that the young idiot …oops … The Emperor must get married and start breeding ASAP. His mother was considering a set of the suitable options including Austrian Archduchess, Prussian princess, Saxon princess and the princesses from the House of Wittelsbach.
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Finally, she opted for Helen, the eldest daughter of her sister Ludovika of Bavaria. Her main advantage was that she was pious. In 1853 the prospective bride with her father, mother and younger sister Elisabeth (Sissi), 15 years old, met with FJI at Bad Ischl. The Habsburgs were famous in the world for their art of arranging boring dinners; but this time they surpassed themselves - someone wrote that "even tablecloths breathed boredom." This was probably due to the mood of the young emperor: he was darker than the thundercloud. And when the dinner was over, the emperor did an indecent act - probably the only one in his life: he approached not the older sister, but the younger one and offered to show her his horses. Returning from a walk in the park, he announced to his mother that he was marrying, but not Princess Elena, but Princess Elizabeth. The amazement of Archduchess Sophia, her anger, references to resentment, scandal did not help; the cardinal summoned to exhort Franz Joseph did not help. The emperor said that he had already made an offer and that the case had been decided. They married in 1854.
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There was a quiet, modest marriage ceremony in parish church of the Hapsburg court a short walk from Hoffburg. The ceremony was conducted by Archbishop of Vienna with only 1,000 guests in attendance including 70 bishops.
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While Elisabeth, generally known as Sissi, did not mind to become an empress, tolerating her husband in the big quantities was a different story and she was absent from the court as much as she could traveling extensively. FJI compensated for her absence by having a number of the affairs, the most long-lasting of which were two running simultaneously: with Anna Nahowski it was just sex and with Katharina Schratt it was more “compatible companionship”. When Anna was finally dismissed she got a severance payment of 200,000 guldens “for the 14 years in service of the emperor”.

In his official capacity he spent no effort to make his court “The most magnificent and the best organized in the world”. Which meant one with the most elaborate etiquette. Never has any of the emperor's relatives addressed him except with the words "Your Majesty", moreover with the mandatory use of a third person plural [3].

At dinners, the Archdukes sat down at the table not by the seniority of age, but by the seniority of the line of the genus: the 20-year-old Archduke of the senior, Tuscan line sat higher than the 70-year-old Field Marshal Albrecht from the second line; the last place was taken by Archduke Rainer, the oldest member of the family, but the youngest in the line. The rules regarding the nobility were even stricter. The emperor, who had an extraordinary memory, knew the genealogy of all Austrian aristocrats and strictly reckoned with it - he was visiting only the princes of Liechtenstein and Auerspergs (according to other sources, also the Harrachs).

The most difficult question was the question of shaking hands. Franz Joseph gave his hand from the Austrians only to ministers and members of the most noble families recorded in the second part of the Gothic almanac. At the receptions, the emperor, going along the line of the guests, shook hands with young men belonging to families from the Gothic almanac, and only nodded his head to old dignitaries from less noble families: those who did not know him sometimes saw it as an insult or a sign of disfavour, asked them to explain, etc. According to an eyewitness, the emperor remained "completely indifferent" to this. The problem was with the cardinals: shaking hand would be unsuitable for a cardinal and kissing a ring unsuitable for the emperor.
The emperor was unusually polite to the ladies: he let even 16-year-old girls forward, opened the doors in front of the ladies himself and never sat down at the table until the last lady sat down.
Franz Joseph got up at 4 o'clock in the morning, drank a glass of milk and worked until noon: he read various documents and wrote orders with his clear handwriting; then from 10 he gave audiences and received reports. One of the first reports was made by the palace commandant, who reported that the day before their residents left Burg and returned, in particular the young Archdukes: the guards were ordered to write it down.

At noon, breakfast was brought to the emperor's office on a tray. At 12:30 the work resumed and lasted until five hours. Then the guests were received. Vienna's society was divided into two groups, between which, however, there was a long distance. The first group of visitors to Burg consisted of "their own", old Catholic nobility, with ancient titles not lower than Count's: Schwarzenbergs, Liechtenstein, Auerspergi, Harrachians, Paars, Waldsteins, Lobkovitsy, Kinsky, Klam Martinitsy, Tups. It's funny that these families were called "Das eigentliche Milieu", "Higher World" or simply "Das Milieu" - in Parisian argo this word means a completely different environment - criminals. The "own" were followed by the second layer: the nobility ancestral and service, and later in the reign of Franz Joseph - the richest bankers and industrialists, led by the Rothschilds. Most ministers, generals and diplomats came out of this circle. They were accepted at court, but they were not considered their own and were not mixed with their own. After lunch, the emperor's friend, artist Ekaterina Schratt, came, and he played tarok with her for an hour and a half. I went to bed at nine o'clock in the evening.

The order of the day was somewhat disturbed in the days of court balls and ceremonial performances - Franz Joseph did not like either and could repeat the famous phrase: "Life would be quite acceptable if it were not for entertainment." The arrivals of foreign guests did not give him much pleasure.

Speaking of the balls, there were “court ball” and “ball at court”. The first was happening in the end of January. From a letter written by Franz Joseph to Elisabeth:
Today is the great Court Ball, which, as always, will be a rather arduous pleasure. The ball was very crowded, particularly large numbers of ladies, dancing as well, not many pretty ones among them, not hot at all. I was in my room by 12.
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This was a huge affair with around 2,000 guests: in addition to Court society as such (that is, the nobility who were ‘presentable at court’ and those who held ceremonial Court positions), high-ranking representatives from politics and the Church together with the serving officers of the Vienna garrison could attend. This represented a certain opening up of the otherwise extremely exclusive Court society. Only the highest-ranking guests received a personal invitation from the Emperor; the rest of the court was ‘informed’ that their appearance was requested at the ball via an official bulletin. The date was traditionally fixed by the Empress; however, Elisabeth was known to put off this social duty, which she disliked intensely, for as long as she could. The ball officially started at eight o’clock in the evening. At half-past eight the Obersthofmeister (the head of the Court household) reported to the Emperor that the guests had arrived. The cortège or train then formed itself, with the senior court officials taking up their positions according to rank around the imperial family. After the welcoming of the diplomatic corps, which could take up to an hour, the imperial family made its entrance at around half-past nine. It was not until this point that the court ball orchestra struck up. The Court Ball ended at midnight at the very latest when the imperial couple withdrew, which was the sign to the guests that it was time to leave. As a leaving present visitors received the famous Court bonbonnières, a coveted souvenir that was proudly shown off at home. There was not too much of a dancing because there was hardly enough room for it due to the large number of guests.
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Two weeks later the ‘Ball at Court’ took place: here the crème de la crème of the aristocracy were amongst themselves, as only those who were ‘presentable at Court’ were eligible to attend and were invited personally. It was thus a correspondingly more intimate and aristocratic event: no more than 700 guests were invited, and they were given a fine dinner with service at table instead of a buffet.[4]


__________
[1] The land tax system existed since at least the reign of Joseph II and had been based upon the surveys that were dividing the land into a number of categories based upon the expected profitability. The system was quite complicated and provided a great opportunity to the favoritism based upon the personal connections and even expected political loyalty. Obviously, the well-connected Austrian noble landowners always had an opportunity to maneuver their big estates into the less taxable brackets. Now, with the serfdom abolished and most of the peasants being individual landowners, the government could get much more taxes from the same territory just by reclassifying category of the land from the lower to higher bracket. The peasants had no money, influence or knowledge to fight the administration with any chance of success.
[2] I must confess that I’m lost in the Austrian money. One quoted article had numbers in florins while another, for the same period, in guldens. Probably, if I dig deeper, I’ll find something in Mongolian tugriks. 😂
[3] I did not get it.
[4] Cheap bastard: Russian court balls season included multiple events with much more generous food service. And not enough room for dancing… Well, build yourself a bigger palace.😂
 
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Alright, thought I would do a demographic update. Here is the population ATL based on OTL population distribution. Also shows OTL population and population rank.
1. Russia: ~61 million (68 million OTL), will be lowball
2. France: ~43.5 million (36 OTL), will be lowball
4. United Kingdom: 27.5 million (same as OTL)
5. Ottoman Empire: ~24 million (25 OTL) plus ~23 million in nominal vassals
3. Austria: ~21 million (36 OTL)
7. Spain: 14.8 million (same as OTL)
N/A Poland: ~12 million
N/A Hungary: ~12 million
6. Prussia: ~11.5 million (16.7 OTL)
8. Two Sicilies: ~10 million (same as OTL)
9. Sweden: ~9.5 million (4.9 OTL), will be lowball
No other European country has a population exceeding 4 million.
Seriously, thanks for this. One can keep up with the updates, but sometimes you just need numbers like this to put some things into perspective. What sources did you even use to find the population of the individual regions that changed?

And since it would be a waste to not comment on this now. Austria and Prussia seem two of the biggest changes. Both are heavily decreased, and are firmly in the high-end secondary power category. Both are probably going to realize their chance of upgrading is in a united Germany. I agree that Austria will be better suited to contest Prussia in a German unification without Hungary, although it's hard to say whose worse off now. Prussia hasn't had a major military successes since the Seven Years War, I think, so not sure their effectiveness even with Austria's recent disasters. A case where Austria unites Germany while Prussia ends up the independent one would be fun, but not sure FJI is the right guy for it. Also don't think the Holy Roman Empire was officially dissolved ITTL, so they might legally contest the title. Could see it ending up splitting into a North and South Germany though. Any war between them would be interesting too. Hasburg's have a big chunk of Italy to draw in Italian nationalists against them, but I could see Sweden and Denmark also going against Prussia. Especially if Prussia builds themselves up by championing german nationalism in their territories. Buying them would be smarter, but D-N and Sweden could charge high. Also not as good of propaganda for Prussia.

Hell, a continuing HRE with both of them surviving would be cool. A great blob in central Europe, but just never managing to get itself in order. Prussia and Austria just too balanced. No one ever has to worry because it's this disorganized blob riven be internal rivalries.

Another major note of mine was how much larger Sweden is than Denmark-Norway here. Even with D-N much better off due to no Napoleonic War and over a century of peace with Sweden, it is likely at least half the size of Sweden. Both also aren't quite as beaten down as OTL, and even then you got the Schleswig Wars. Any Scandinavianism/Nordic is likely to point out they're better able to serve as a strong secondary power at least worthy of consideration together. Both of them are going to share issues with their German territories. Some Swedes even probably like the idea of balancing some of their German/Finnish/Baltic populations. I could see much heavier pressure. While I've not kept track of the Swedish royals, this is literally the time of Frederick VII (Need to check if D-N was mentioned in the 1848 update). He was a single son. If the movement had enough force to push female inheritance, you could either have Princess Caroline, Vilhelmine (daughters of Frederick VI), or Juliane Sophie (granddaughter of Frederick V) have married the Swedish heir and there's a constitutional basis. Sweden has granted quite a bit of autonomy, so it wouldn't be annexation.

Otherwise, Spain is likely fully focused internally with the hopes of some sort of Commonwealth sort development with its colonies. Ottoman empire is arguably a lot stronger than OTL, but largely because Russia's been bulking it up over any impressive action by itself. While Hungary is likely to engulfed in containing its own minorities, I still expect European OE to become increasingly unstable. Poland is likely to poke someone, probably Sweden or Prussia as it gets over its head since they too basically gained something without being impressive themselves. Otherwise, we've got Russia, France, and the UK as the truly Great Powers, but with OE, Austria, Prussia and Sweden being secondary's that could probably win if it ended up 2 vs 1 against one of the higher three...maybe (better 3 vs 1). With some of those still punching above their weight and some lower.
 
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Alright, thought I would do a demographic update. Here is the population ATL based on OTL population distribution. Also shows OTL population and population rank.
1. Russia: ~61 million (68 million OTL), will be lowball
2. France: ~43.5 million (36 OTL), will be lowball
4. United Kingdom: 27.5 million (same as OTL)
5. Ottoman Empire: ~24 million (25 OTL) plus ~23 million in nominal vassals
3. Austria: ~21 million (36 OTL)
7. Spain: 14.8 million (same as OTL)
N/A Poland: ~12 million
N/A Hungary: ~12 million
6. Prussia: ~11.5 million (16.7 OTL)
8. Two Sicilies: ~10 million (same as OTL)
9. Sweden: ~9.5 million (4.9 OTL), will be lowball
No other European country has a population exceeding 4 million.

Now Russia probably has a similar population to OTL, the lack of Poland/Baltic offset by a better administration and as a result more natural growth. To be honest, OTL went pretty badly for Russia and yet they managed to be one of two superpowers. ATL with a wealthier, better run, more industrialized Russia, they will naturally transition into being the world's first superpower in the early 1900s. In theory that could raise a coalition against them at some point, but that is a lot harder than OTL. Like OTL a coalition of the British, France, Prussia, and Austria came close to happening against Russia during the Crimean War (although it was not in any danger of superpowerhood at that point). However, ATL there are a lot more medium powers that don't get along, an ATL equivalent coalition of similar power would require Prussia, Austria, Hungary, and Poland to be buddies together which seems a bit of a stretch.

Interesting analysis but I’m not in a complete agreement with the premise:
1. Putting aside the forbidden analogies from the current politics, the ranking of the superpowers is a rather arbitrary thing. For example, UK population does not include population of India and Britain + its colonial empire (even if it is smaller than in OTL) possesses huge natural resources, a great industrial potential and naval and trade supremacy which the Russian Empire can’t realistically match. So, at best we’ll be comparing elephant and a whale. Russia may be competing with Britain over the Asiatic markets but that’s pretty much it.
2. The #1 (however defined) superpower is generating an unified opposition when it is trying too hard to impress its will on the rest of the world (in this case Europe). But ITTL Russian traditional policy is rather restricted and based upon the mutually-profitable alliances so why, say, France is going to join coalition against its own interests? Strictly speaking, why would even the alt-unified Germany in the scenario where the Franco-German antagonism is absent and even the “Balkan issue” does not exist?
Also, note that Prussia is much weaker than OTL especially since I cannot imagine what their army is like (in the negative sense) based on OTL leadership and without the kick in the pants of the War of the Fourth Coalition. Now Austria is also considerably weaker, but it is still going to be quite a struggle for Prussia, especially since Austria will find it easier to play the German unification game without its eastern territories.

Yes. So far, Prussia had very few reasons to consider its army inadequate because the only serious war, while ending in a defeat, was sort of an “honorable defeat” by a greater force and ended up graciously with a lot of credit given to the Prussian military by a victor. Some reforms are going to happen but there are no OTL foundations for a brand new system. Well, and I’m not quite sure if von Moltke survived transportation across the whole Anatolia…

Austro-Prussian contest may easily end in two Germanys or two German federations.

The line between Great and Secondary Powers is a lot blurrier ATL.

IMO, it always was rather blurry because the criteria never had been clearly defined.

OTL all the great powers except Russia (who punched below its population) had a population between 16.7 and 36 million ignoring colonies. Ignoring Spain and the Two Sicilies who punched below their weight also, then everyone else in Europe was under 5 million. ATL there are a lot of countries in the high-end secondary power range with a population ~10 million.
Power is not just a population but also many other factors. But I agree: ITTL Europe is much more evenly distributed than in OTL.
 
CaedmonCousland:
Wikipedia and Tacitus. I basically ran off the OTL country population and then added and subtracted based on territory differences. Often a region would have an estimate from roughly the timeframe that could be slightly tweeked. Sometimes more difficult, like for West Prussia, Posen, etc, I found the population of the areas Polish/Swedish ATL in 1901 as a proportion of the population of the region then multiplied it by what the population would have been in 1850. Not perfect by any means, but close enough.

The problem with Prussia buying off from Sweden and Denmark is the territories are too big and too important. The Swedish territories in North Germany & Prussia have a population of ~1.5 million. No way is Sweden selling 15% of its population and a rather larger share of its economy. Denmark selling Holstein is also implausible. Both because they showed plenty of willingness to fight for it OTL and also because it is just too important to sell. That would not be like anything OTL. Like the Danish Virgin Islands had a population of just 30,000 when sold, and similar for other colonies European powers sold.

There is a good chance Denmark and Sweden just keep those lands really. Denmark and Sweden haven't fought in a long time and they have the same interests in Germany. Combined they can probably handle Prussia and pose quite a challenge even to a unified German Empire or a HRE effort similar to the Second Slesweig War.
 
alexmilman:
Well aware population is somewhat arbitrary, GDP per capita and state capacity being other big ones. That is their rank by population OTL, I'd certainly rank them as Great Powers somewhat differently (like OTL 1850 UK #1 not #4). I'd say in 1850, though the British were the only ones whose colonial possessions would have been a major element of their strength, for the rest the metropole is all that really matters powerwise (well, I suppose Algeria mattered in tying a lot of French forces down). Part of it is just to provide context how the powers compare to their OTL equivalents, in a way that maps, which don't show population density don't.

In terms of Russia, I am not talking now, I am talking 50-100 years down the road, which isn't *that* long in the timeline from a forward planning prospective as you are covering the years faster as you get further from the POD. By 1939, the Soviet Union was taking the lead in European GDP despite a *lot* going wrong. Russia is better-run than OTL and on a better path for industrialization. Russia is already has the largest population and growing much faster. I assume you don't plan to economically cripple Russia, and assuming that, in the long run the other European powers just will no longer be in the same league.

Basically, I see Russia both OTL and especially ATL in some ways resembling the US though also very different (poorer, more autocratic, more tied geopolitically into Europe, etc). Economically and demographically upward in the late 1800s on with a much higher possible ceiling than any of the other European powers. This does not necessarily mean war. While the US's rise did involve wars, they were not really a reaction by the other Powers to the US's rise. The more balanced nature of Europe will help the Russian giant slowly peacefully and gently draw Europe under its influence. The US by European standards was fairly isolationist and *very* demilitarized until WWII, but eventually it ended up on top because that was offset by it just being in another league in metropole population and GDP. Russia will even ATL be poorer, but also even more populous.
 
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In terms of Russia, I am not talking now, I am talking 50-100 years down the road, which isn't *that* long in the timeline from a forward planning prospective as you are covering the years faster as you get further from the POD. By 1939, the Soviet Union was taking the lead in European GDP

Technically if we are to speak about 50-100 year's down the line UK might actually have better fate than otl with balanced European politics and no worlds wars taking place. With colonialism potentially lasting longer UK might actually hold on on Canada and Australia (NZ was hinted to be potentially colonized by Sweden in this TL), this by certain metrics would help them to hold on on their superpower position.

Then there is Spanish empire, otl Russia despite it's mismanagement managed to become superpower, so it's quite possible that Spain manages to rise to , maybe even overtaking the British and the French, technically down the line with it's oversea colonies Spanish empire could be able to be in same league as Russia was otl .

But ITTL Russian traditional policy is rather restricted and based upon the mutually-profitable alliances so why, say, France is going to join coalition against its own interests?
Yea, personally i would say Russia more, or less has Europe where it wants it to be, Germans/Austrians are expelled from Central Europe and Romanov sits on Hungarian throne, Poland from the looks of it actually sees Russia as it's backer in reclaiming couple of it's territories, Ottomans and Swedes are friendly and dependant on Russia, so beside these areas i don't really see Russia trying to expand its influence further.

Germany is more, or less divided which plays in Russian hands and France is friendly power whose interests in Europe greatly overlap with Russia.

Strictly speaking, why would even the alt-unified Germany in the scenario where the Franco-German antagonism is absent and even the “Balkan issue” does not exist?

Generally speaking unified Germany (yes even with different ITTL geopolitical dynamics) still has potential to clash with France, especially over the Rhine (even if we try to ignore the nationalism economic interests are still there , i mean what right does France has to claim it's natural border's that Germany doesn't with it's national borders? Generally speaking both powers would be guided by their nationalistic pride and patriotism in Rhine), then let's not speak about colonial treasure, unified Germany will certainly want it's slice of colonial pie and it's unlikely that it will be able to match the British in Naval race, but then again there is potential to be had here as France could offset some of German ambitions abroad.

I believe Germany could be compared to otl Italy in sense that it probably would be friendly with Russia and France, but would have territorial pretensions towards them and their allies.

This is also applies to Sweden/Denmark and Prussia because while "Balkan issue" is absent from German-Russian relations there are other problems supplementing Otl ones. But having territorial pretensions and acting on them are two completely different things because having given situation in Europe and more equal distribution of power Sweden and Denmark are also in a lot better position and they would certainly had both Russian and French backing against any German attempt to reclaim German speaking land's, Russia because it's long standing alliance with Baltic states and the fact that Sweden/Denmark are lot more manageable than Prussia/Germany and France would back them for obvious reasons.

So this is why I compare Prussia to Italy, otl Italy was part of League of Three emperor's and CP but still had pretensions on Austria, Prussia would also more or less be forced to play by the same rules, especially given that in current geopolitical climate it's unlikely that full German unification will happen and we'll probably see some form of N.German Federation lead by Prussia and South German centralized HRE lead by Austria.

Regarding the potential deal between Sweden and Prussia, personally i don't see the need for Sweden to cede, or sell any lands, nor do I see Prussia willing to engage in territorial swap , the way forward would be a deal in which Prussia accepts Swedish conclaves in Germany (including Danish Holstein and Swedish Bremen as i don't see the reason to give it up when I look back at ITTL events, especially since Russia and Sweden confirmed Swedish ownership in GPW) , in exchange the way forward for Prusso/Russian/Baltic relationship would be acknowledging Prussian sphere of influence in N.Germany (including Mecklenburg and Saxony)

@Hastings makes a good point about Sweden and Denmark after all and Russia, or Sweden are in no need for concessions, especially since they won the war.
 
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As far as the Swedish German territories are involved, only Bremen-Verden are “inconvenient” in the terms of communications and potentially desirable for Prussia. There are options:
1. As was proposed, a Swedish-Danish marriage results in the union and removes inconvenience.
2. Regardless of marriage, territory can be swapped for the Prussian-held Polish area adjacent to Danzig: Prussian part of Wojvodstwo Pomorskie and Lebork - Bytow. Plus some monetary compensation. From the Swedish perspective this strengthens the whole holding and for Prussia the only drawback is less convenient land access to the East Prussia (which is not directly linked to Prussia anyway) which can be compensated by the mutual agreements.
3. Doing nothing.

Swedish Pomerania remains Swedish. It is easily defensible with the naval dominance and economically does not worth a trouble of a major war.

Denmark is already the union of Denmark-Norway-Grand Duchy of Gottorp (we settled the whole mess by a land swap long ago) so Schleswig issue should be more or less absent.

As for the Rhine, if nothing drastic happens for few more decades then the locals could get adopted to the notion of being French. After all even Joan of Arc, IIRC, came from the very mixed border area and how could you be more French? 😇

Then again, ATL unified Germany may be two Germanys and not necessarily unified the same way. Prussia may unify the bigger piece more or less along the OTL lines but the “Southern” states may form some kind of the Austria-led federation. Which would make a military confrontation with France impractical.
 
If vassals are counted to the Ottoman Empire, why not count the overseas empire of Spain?
Spanish America had a population of 22 million during this time, but in this world things are different they could easily reach 30 million.
 
I was just noting the nominal vassals of Ottoman Empire, although they do not help the Ottoman empire in any real way. I know I wasn't really conscious of how large *on paper* the Ottoman Empire still was in the 1800s even if it as a practical matter was de-facto *much* smaller. Like they do not have any real control over Egypt.

Also, I personally doubt Spain still controls Spanish America by 1848, the Peninsular War accelerated things but it was a long time coming. The American Revolution helped spark things and things were already building pre-Peninsular War and will boil over, albeit perhaps a bit later. Even the territories that were comparatively quiet (not completely, there was some pro-independence unrest) and Spain *kept* like Cuba or the Philippines became very restive over the course of the 1800s. It is the same problem as with the 13 Colonies. Truly integrating them would give them too much power relative to the metropole while not doing it would result in them resenting it and breaking free.

For Germany I'm not sure there will be any official north-south split. The HRE is likely to continue for the foreseeable future, so Austria will be technically over both North and South. Prussia will gain economic influence in the north but short of a war not de jure redraw things. I think it is quite possible we get a a Greater Germany actually as nationalism kicks in. Ignoring the Italian lands (which Austria will struggle to hold long-term) and Croatia, Austria has a population almost exactly the same as Prussia and is a little poorer but also de jure the leader. I think it is pretty likely we get a scenario where Austria is head of state and Austria and Prussia get equal legislative seats with the minor German states getting the balance (they have combined population of ~17 million). Basically a lot like the German Empire OTL except every member is like OTL Bavaria. Basically a centralized version of the HRE, possibly renamed, possibly not.

In terms of the Rhineland, a military confrontation with France is practical if unified front like the Second Sleswig War or if it is a more centralized confederation like I suggest. The combined German States are roughly equal to France. They will want the Rhineland which is much more key to a German state than Alsace-Lorraine. Now the Rhinelanders were relatively Francophile OTL, but it still won't be the same as in Alsace-Lorraine, where most of the German areas had been under French rule since the late 1600s, nearly 200 years before the Franco-Prussian War. If HRE/German Confederation wins, everyone can get a piece of the pie in proportion to their size (base map from Wikipedia). The resulting Franco-German border here is fairly defensible for both sides. Of course very possible Germans just lose any Franco-German War instead.
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Technically if we are to speak about 50-100 year's down the line UK might actually have better fate than otl with balanced European politics and no worlds wars taking place. With colonialism potentially lasting longer UK might actually hold on on Canada and Australia (NZ was hinted to be potentially colonized by Sweden in this TL), this by certain metrics would help them to hold on on their superpower position.

IMO, the big part of that superpower thing is how many outsiders are on your side (benefitting from the alliance or just good relations) and for how many your dominance is going against their interests so I’d try to avoid the term unless absolutely necessary.

But Britain without the world wars surely will be in a better position at least for as long as it can keep looting its colonies.


Then there is Spanish empire, otl Russia despite it's mismanagement managed to become superpower, so it's quite possible that Spain manages to rise to , maybe even overtaking the British and the French, technically down the line with it's oversea colonies Spanish empire could be able to be in same league as Russia was otl .

Spain which retains most or all of its American empire (I’m not sure what was the consensus regarding border with the US) definitely has a great potential providing there are no domestic disturbances at home and serious separatist movements or quarrels between the colonies in the Americas. In OTL by the late XIX Argentine became a major grain exporter, Chili’s nitrates became very valuable commodity, etc. It is an open question if all that wealth results in turning Spain itself into the heavily industrialized country (instead of a modest level of industrialization) but even without going to the extreme this can be a prosperous empire with a lot of valuable export items and resulting ability to buy whatever is necessary from abroad (OTL XIX century Russia was buying a lot of all types of machinery and routinely ordered ships to be build in Britain and still had apositive trade balance).

Yea, personally i would say Russia more, or less has Europe where it wants it to be, Germans/Austrians are expelled from Central Europe and Romanov sits on Hungarian throne, Poland from the looks of it actually sees Russia as it's backer in reclaiming couple of it's territories,

Of course, nothing can be guaranteed regarding the Polish attitudes but a serious hostility looks impractical even with the allowance for the extreme forms of “patriotism”.
Ottomans and Swedes are friendly and dependant on Russia, so beside these areas i don't really see Russia trying to expand its influence further.
That’s the whole idea. The existing friends are friends both by the military and economic reasons. Which is different from OTL XIX century when the influence had been based almost exclusively upon the military factor. Further expansion of “influence”, if happens, is going to happen along the same lines with the stress upon economic factor meaning the mutual interest, not fear.

Germany is more, or less divided which plays in Russian hands

Yes, for Russia it seems reasonable to keep backing Prussia but the unification is not necessarily happening in OTL way so there is a chance for two big entities having different forms. Say, unified Northern Germany (with or without Hanover?) as the alt-German Empire and slightly politically modified rump HRE that includes Austria, Bavaria, Saxony, Baden, etc. They are more or less balanced. Well, at least to a degree that makes an easy victory unlikely (with no Bismarck, Roon, Moltke triumvirate in place).
and France is friendly power whose interests in Europe greatly overlap with Russia.
Don’t forget mutually complementary interests in Egypt.

Generally speaking unified Germany (yes even with different ITTL geopolitical dynamics) still has potential to clash with France, especially over the Rhine (even if we try to ignore the nationalism economic interests are still there , i mean what right does France has to claim it's natural border's that Germany doesn't with it's national borders?
But this is an issue only if the complete unification of Germany happens and nationalist principle prevails. The fundamental difference with OTL is that France does not make a claim to the Rhine region, it possesses it for many decades and the current generation of the locals mostly consider themselves French being born and brought up as the French citizens.

Generally speaking both powers would be guided by their nationalistic pride and patriotism in Rhine), then let's not speak about colonial treasure, unified Germany will certainly want it's slice of colonial pie and it's unlikely that it will be able to match the British in Naval race, but then again there is potential to be had here as France could offset some of German ambitions abroad.

Or it can play along with the (Northern) alt-Germany because their interests, including colonial, are not necessarily mutually contradictory and the economic interests for both are rather anti-British than anti- each other. As for the colonies, Africa is a big place and so are various islands.

I believe Germany could be compared to otl Italy in sense that it probably would be friendly with Russia and France, but would have territorial pretensions towards them and their allies.

Well, this is also a possibility as long as these pretensions do not lead to a real conflict.
This is also applies to Sweden/Denmark and Prussia because while "Balkan issue" is absent from German-Russian relations there are other problems supplementing Otl ones. But having territorial pretensions and acting on them are two completely different things because having given situation in Europe and more equal distribution of power Sweden and Denmark are also in a lot better position and they would certainly had both Russian and French backing against any German attempt to reclaim German speaking land's, Russia because it's long standing alliance with Baltic states and the fact that Sweden/Denmark are lot more manageable than Prussia/Germany and France would back them for obvious reasons.
Well, how about putting the Prussian interests into the equation as well? Prussia may gain more from the good relations with the Baltic League (and even to become a member) than from going to war over few pieces of a territory. I leave open an issue of a peaceful swap but this is not critical in the general picture.
So this is why I compare Prussia to Italy, otl Italy was part of League of Three emperor's and CP but still had pretensions on Austria, Prussia would also more or less be forced to play by the same rules, especially given that in current geopolitical climate it's unlikely that full German unification will happen and we'll probably see some form of N.German Federation lead by Prussia and South German centralized HRE lead by Austria.

Regarding the potential deal between Sweden and Prussia, personally i don't see the need for Sweden to cede, or sell any lands, nor do I see Prussia willing to engage in territorial swap , the way forward would be a deal in which Prussia accepts Swedish conclaves in Germany (including Danish Holstein and Swedish Bremen as i don't see the reason to give it up when I look back at ITTL events, especially since Russia and Sweden confirmed Swedish ownership in GPW) , in exchange the way forward for Prusso/Russian/Baltic relationship would be acknowledging Prussian sphere of influence in N.Germany (including Mecklenburg and Saxony)

Holstein is not on the map anymore: it is a part of the Grand Duchy of Gottorp, which is in a personal union with Denmark. So there is no reason for any international dispute. For Sweden the issue of Bremen-Verden is a matter of convenience of communications and keep in mind that Bremen itself is not a part of these duchies. So there can be certain advantage for Sweden in expanding holdings around Danzig (population of which is Polish-German) which would allow a better development of the region, which is already very important economically.

Of course, there are other options as well. In the case of Swedish-Danish marriage and resulting union the communication issue goes away, etc.
@Hastings makes a good point about Sweden and Denmark after all and Russia, or Sweden are in no need for concessions, especially since they won the war.
I do not agree with the premise. “concession” is one thing but a mutually beneficial exchange is quite another. 😜
 
The general consensus with the borders with the US is that they would not have a war. Because the US is not so brave to go against New Spain and possibly the entire Spanish empire.
 
I was just noting the nominal vassals of Ottoman Empire, although they do not help the Ottoman empire in any real way.

Well, they are paying a regular tribute (even Egypt does) and, as long as OE, RE and now Hungary as well are going to be the bosom buddies, these princedoms, including Serbia, are pretty much forced to be the good boys because they are surrounded by the bigger entities which are not sympathetic to their national aspirations. If the Danube is becoming a truly international trading highway they are useful in maintaining their segment of the route in a good shape (and benefitting in more than one way) and everybody is gaining including OE which is routinely short of money.

I know I wasn't really conscious of how large *on paper* the Ottoman Empire still was in the 1800s even if it as a practical matter was de-facto *much* smaller. Like they do not have any real control over Egypt.

Also, I personally doubt Spain still controls Spanish America by 1848, the Peninsular War accelerated things but it was a long time coming. The American Revolution helped spark things and things were already building pre-Peninsular War and will boil over, albeit perhaps a bit later. Even the territories that were comparatively quiet (not completely, there was some pro-independence unrest) and Spain *kept* like Cuba or the Philippines became very restive over the course of the 1800s. It is the same problem as with the 13 Colonies. Truly integrating them would give them too much power relative to the metropole while not doing it would result in them resenting it and breaking free.
Well, there was a POD in which prior to the French Revolution a new system was established somewhat similar to the British Commonwealth. This presumably more or less eliminated the OTL reasons for the revolutions in Spanish Americas: they are already de facto independent, or almost independent, with Spanish government being something of a coordinator and mediator rather than master trying to establish one size fits all system. So no parallel with the 13 colonies.

For Germany I'm not sure there will be any official north-south split. The HRE is likely to continue for the foreseeable future, so Austria will be technically over both North and South.

Both “North” and “South” are imprecise terms as far as the potential split is involved. “South” was a demagoguery term used by Bismarck on the early stages of his career to differentiate between Prussia (and those states who are going to accept the Prussian supremacy and interests) and the decadent (not sure which exact term he was using) “South” that has nothing in common ideologically with the above.

Prussia will gain economic influence in the north but short of a war not de jure redraw things.
This is a good point but de jure part may become not too important if the other side can’t enforce demands regarding the HRE unity, etc.

I think it is quite possible we get a a Greater Germany actually as nationalism kicks in. Ignoring the Italian lands (which Austria will struggle to hold long-term) and Croatia, Austria has a population almost exactly the same as Prussia and is a little poorer but also de jure the leader. I think it is pretty likely we get a scenario where Austria is head of state and Austria and Prussia get equal legislative seats with the minor German states getting the balance (they have combined population of ~17 million).
Possible but why would Prussia keep bounding itself to the archaic and complicated arrangements which will doom it to be the second fiddle forever if a new union can be created in which it is undisputed leader? What Austria can do? Go to war? Or issue the worthless declarations about illegality of such an act? The Erfurt Union already came into existence and may/will keep expanding.

And, so far, I’m not planning a war over the Rhineland.

 
Also about the Carlist wars, I think they would be easier to handle for this Spain. On the other hand is the Spanish colonialism after this new Hispanic Community.

Without losing its fleet in the Napoleonic wars it is possibly the second or third largest navy in the world. I think they can expand more than they have and they will try. It would be interesting to see how a surviving Spanish empire fares in the partition of Africa, especially without an all-powerful UK.
In Asia they could expand into Indochina and take a port in China.
 
Also about the Carlist wars, I think they would be easier to handle for this Spain. On the other hand is the Spanish colonialism after this new Hispanic Community.

Without losing its fleet in the Napoleonic wars it is possibly the second or third largest navy in the world. I think they can expand more than they have and they will try. It would be interesting to see how a surviving Spanish empire fares in the partition of Africa, especially without an all-powerful UK.
In Asia they could expand into Indochina and take a port in China.
Sorry, but there is a problem with this type of a logic. Spain already passed through the experience of living predominantly off the loot of its colonies and results were not good because its domestic development was delayed. ITTL it already has a colonial empire and arrangement is much more balanced and Spain can’t keep living off its colonies because they’ll simply start breaking such a relationship. It has to start developing domestic manufacturing and cash crops. If this course is successful than the relations with the colonies become mutually profitable and the empire survives.

Also, you keep bringing in the issue of the Spanish navy. Yes, it was big in the numbers and it looks like the Spanish shipbuilders could build really big wooden ships (if I’m not mistaken, “Santissima Trinidad” was the biggest ship of its time) but the government did not have money to maintain its fleet properly and it seems that the Brits had an additional advantage in a better artillery. And artillery means manufacturing. Back to the subject, ITTL by the late 1840s the sails fleet is getting obsolete in an alarming rate so, even if Spain somehow managed to maintain a big sail navy its naval priority would be to switch to the steam ASAP and to be able to produce or buy a lot of the modern cannons (various versions of the naval “bombic cannon”) because otherwise all these beautiful ships within few years will be useful only as a wood supply (look at the Russian Black Sea fleet during the CW).

The same goes for the army: the percussion muskets are not growing on the trees and time of the military usable rifles is few years away. So Spain needs to develop domestic metallurgy and manufacturing of the weapons and tools or to be able to buy them in the big numbers. Ditto for the steam engines for manufacturing, mining, ships, railroads, etc.

Taking into an account that jumpstarting a big scale metallurgic industry from the scratch with a minimal experience is very problematic, the country needs a lot of money to buy the needed equipment and hire the specialists. And the easiest way of getting these money is to become a major exporter of what it already has, the agricultural products. So the initial effort should be on raising productivity of agriculture with the money spent on irrigation, improving the roads, buying necessary equipment, etc. Not on trying to imitate Britain because it already has developed industry and looks for the markets to sell manufactured goods and places it can loot for the raw materials.


Resources spent upon conquering the wild tribes of Africa will be resources wasted and, while taking port in China sounds as a good idea on paper, start with figuring out what OTL Spain could sell in China if even Britain was not too successful in pushing its manufactured goods down the Chinese’s throats. Not to mention that at this time nobody in Europe would allow Spain to have its own port in China (as opposite to the “open ports”) and it does not look realistic for Spain to win some equivalent of the Opium War on its own.
 
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I didn't realize you mention the navy a lot, sorry about that. By the other hand I was referring to taking a port in something like the Boxer Revolt. And what about the colonies, please, if someone followed the logic there would not be a distribution of Africa.
 
Liberated Hungary
238. Liberated Hungary

Csárdás (/ˈtʃɑːrdæʃ/, US: /-dɑːʃ/; Hungarian: [ˈt͡ʃaːrdaːʃ]), often seen as Czárdás, is a traditional Hungarian folk dance… The csárdás is characterized by a variation in tempo: it starts out slowly (lassú) and ends in a very fast tempo (friss, literally "fresh").”
Wiki
A pénz nem a fán nő.” [1]
Nem mind arany, ami fénylik” [2]
“Ne várj lehetőségre! Teremtsd meg!” [3]
Hungarian proverbs
“It’s not enough to have talent. You also have to be Hungarian.”
Robert Capa
“If you are curious, you'll find the puzzles around you. If you are determined, you will solve them.”
Erno Rubik
“These people [Hungarians] are so jealous of preserving their privileges that nobody dares to touch them, no matter what they need.”
Russian Ambassador in Vienna, XVIII century
“If we have enough food and wine, what else should we wish for? Why should a Hungarian save money?”
Baron Lörinz Orzi​



Hungary. 1850 and later
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Coronation. To give credit where it is due, Kossuth was responsible for preventing The Holy Crown of Hungary from falling into the Austrian hands and this was very important because it was a key mark of the legitimacy.

As was written by Crown Guard Péter Révay, when Hungary needed a new monarch it did not seek a crown to inaugurate a king, but a king worthy of the Crown. The popular tradition dated it to the time when the first King Stephen I of Hungary crowned 1000/1001 which, of course, was a legend because the crown was made in Constantinople in the 1070s and presented by the Byzantine Emperor Michael VII Doukas to King Géza I of Hungary (crowned in 1074) ; both are depicted and named in Greek on enamel plaques in the lower crown.

Unlike most other European countries, where the reign of a new king started immediately after predecessor’s death, in Hungary the coronation was absolutely indispensable: if it were not properly executed, the Kingdom stayed "orphaned" and ruled by a regency until the new king is duly crowned and took a coronation oath, by which they had to agree to uphold the constitutional arrangements of the country, and to preserve the liberties of their subjects and the territorial integrity of the realm.
1666805650773.png

Kossuth. So, at the moment King Szilard I (the former Grand Duke Constantine) had been duly crowned with the Holy Crown of Hungary Kossuth ceased to be Regent-President and his official position became unclear because the King did not need both a President (whatever the title) and Prime Minister and the current PM was much more convenient that the former regent who did not want a king to start with and actively worked to prevent Constantine (or anybody else) from becoming one. Of course, Constantine was a liberal but he was not an all forgiving saint and, to tell the truth, the Kossuth’s rule, even with the allowance for the war, had not been quite satisfactory and while he was still popular among the “middle level” nobility, he was distinctively unpopular among the military and pretty much all minorities (which amounted to more than 60% of the population). The peasantry’s position was on a border of neutral/negatively neutral, and not very strong but not insignificant capitalist & financier class was not happy with him at all because freely printed “Kossuth florins” were producing little besides chaos and inflation. Well, and hoarding of the gold and silver coin. The few major magnates were a separate problem because in some cases there was also an issue of a loyalty and property split between the Austrian and Hungarian lands. Even with the serfdom reform they still had a lot of wealth in various forms and, what was of at least equal importance, many of them had been “international aristocracy” received in the European courts . Implementation of Kossuth’s proposals regarding confiscation and trials in absentia would, of course, give government some wealth and will excite all types of the socialists abroad but it will definitely damage international image of a new monarchy and the Kingdom of Hungary in general.

OTOH, Kossuth still had a lot of the domestic and international clout and could not be simply thrown out of the political establishment because this act of an ingratitude will also be harmful for a newly-established monarch. The best solution would be to kick him upstairs and there was a ready example of how to do it. So one of the first actions of the King Szilard I was creation of the State Council of the Kingdom of Hungary. It was supposed to be the top level advisory legislative body composed of people whom the king could trust. The main duty of the Council was the preliminary investigation, promulgation and abrogation of laws. The Council will have departments of the Council: Legislative; Civil and Ecclesiastical Administration (importance of the ecclesiastic aspect can’t to be ignored in a country with Protestant, Catholic and Orthodox population); State Economy; Industry, Science and Commerce and, last but not least, Military. Each department will have its own presiding officer (State Secretary) and met separately to discuss matters assigned to their departments. There were also plenary sessions of the whole Council presided over by the Chairman of the State Council (appointed by the King) unless the King was present in person. The Council as a whole will examine projects of laws and reforms proposed by the ministers who were ex-officio members. Strictly speaking, the King was under no obligation to follow the Council’s decisions but it was expected that he will follow them if there was 2/3rd majority. To make this institution popular, half of its members were appointed by the King from persons distinguished at civil and military service, and half by the regional elections. [4]

As a result, formally Kossuth became the head of the highest ranking state institution. In reality this position was mostly decorative and he was not an idiot to miss this fact. So within few months he presented his resignation which, after few requests to reconsider (made public), was accepted with the profound expressions of regret. In recognition of his merits he was awarded Magyar Királyi Szent István-rend (Hungarian Royal Order of St. Stephan) which now “returned” back to Hungary. The order was accepted and so was a nice pension but a baronial title was rejected because it would spoil relations with the socialists.
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Soon enough the hero departed upon a very long lecturing tour to Britain and the US.

Prince Paul Anton III [Pál Antal] Esterhazy was a Hungarian prince, a member of the famous Esterházy family. For several generations, the Esterházy family had been exceedingly wealthy. Prince’s estates included one hundred and thirty villages, forty towns, and thirty-four castles. Besides money he was getting from his peasants he also had his own enterprises, directed by his staff, notably sheep raising. To get an idea, he had two thousand five hundred shepherds while the Lord of Holkham, one of the most wealthy proprietors in Britain, was boasting about having 2,000 sheep. He was employed on various diplomatic important assignments including a prolonged ambassadorship in Britain. In 1842 Paul returned to Hungary and became a member of the Conservative Party, which supported the Habsburg supremacy and did not favour the reform experiments. On 7 April 1848 he was appointed as Minister besides the King in the first cabinet of Hungary which was controlled by Count Lajos Batthyány. His role was as the mediatory between Vienna and the Hungarian government. Seeing that his pacifying intentions ended in failure, he resigned from his position in September.

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As was the case with all his family, he also was extremely loyal to the Hapsburgs and, being a prominent member of a narrow circle of the top Hungarian aristocracy, was one of very few people with whom FJI was routinely shaking hands and whom he visited. Straightforward compensation of his estates in Hungary (which represented a big part of his possessions), as advocated by Kossuth, will make him a victim of the new regime and, taking into an account that he and his wife had been very popular among the British top aristocracy, this could produce the wrong message. So the softer course had been chosen. Of course, possession of the towns had been gone except for the land-owning asoect. The peasants reform had been conducted on his lands as everywhere else in Hungary but it left a lot of land in his possession and, because the independent Kingdom of Hungary adopted the old Austrian land taxation system (of which it was a part since the XVIII century), it was up to the Hungarian administration to figure out the taxation brackets for his land. The prince, who somehow managed to live beyond his means, was interested in the income and, as a result, it was expected that, on his own good will, he will be expressing proper sentiments if and when the need arises or the Austrian-Hungarian rapprochement.

Országgyűlés. National Assembly (traditional Hungarian Parliament) was in place since 1290s and in more modern times had been referenced as “Hungarian Diet”. The articles of the 1790 diet set out that the diet should meet at least once every 3 years, but, since the diet was called by the Habsburg monarchy, this promise was not kept on several occasions thereafter. It was crucial in election of the new king but it looked like there was a need for reforming it because it was clearly not inclusive enough. As a result, the legislative power was vested in this parliament, consisting of two houses: an upper housetitled the Főrendiház (House of Magnates), and a lower house titled the Képviselőház (House of Representatives).

The House of Magnates was similar to the British House of Lords, which was a convincing reference for those who may have doubts about reformed institution being liberal enough (how could you be more liberal than the beacon of the liberalism?). It was composed of hereditaries, ecclesiastics (from all religions), and, unlike the House of Lords, deputized representatives from autonomous regions. s). The House had no fixed membership size, as anyone who met the qualifications could sit in it.

The House of Representatives, unlike pre-revolutionary one, which included only the members of nobility, representatives of the free cities and clergy, consisted of members elected by a complicated franchise based upon property, taxation, profession or official position, and ancestral privileges. The House consisted of 413 members. Their terms were for five years and were remunerated. Of course, the members of the working classes were unrepresented in the parliament, only 6% of them, and 13% of the small trading class, possessing the franchise. But this was still a noticeable progress from nothing so there was no reason for grumpiness. The parliament was summoned annually by the king in Budapest. While the official language was Hungarian, the deputies from Transylvania were permitted to use Romanian. Executive power was vested in a cabinet responsible to it: the president of the council, a minister ad latum, and the ministers of the interior, of national defence, of education and public worship, of finance, of agriculture, of industry and commerce, and of justice. The King had the power to veto all legislation passed by the Diet and also to dissolve it and call new elections. Additionally, before any bill could be presented to the Diet, the King had to give his Royal Assent which was expected to be given after consideration by the State Council. In other words, the King has a big power which he may or may not choose to exercise. [5]

Minorities.
With Croatia being removed from the picture the biggest potential pain in the butt was Transylvania with its mixed population. The provisional agreements negotiated by Bem were now formalized. The region got its autonomy with the Transylvanian Parliament in which all main ethnic groups had to be represented by the proper configuration of the elective districts. The Parliament was electing the regional cabinet which had to be approved by the king. Competence of the parliament and government had been limited to the issues of the regional development, internal affairs, religion, education, regional finances and agriculture. The Parliament was also delegating 30 representatives to the National Diet. The legislative activity had to fit within the national constitution and laws, and the issues of the state taxation and defense were out of its competence as well as the appointment of the judges with the regional government having a right to present its candidates to the national Ministry of Justice. Again, not everybody was completely happy but it was better than what they had before 1848 and nobody was ready to start fighting a hopeless war in a hope of getting more.

The Serbs of Vojvodina were expecting a bloody suppression of their uprising but instead they got something of value. The region between The Tisza, Morava and Danube rivers had been organized into “Serbian Voivodeship”, a multi-national semi-autonomous region administered, for the moment, by its Patriarch and subject to the Hungarian laws. The real carrots included freedom of the religion and education and abolishment of the readiness for the military service for males between 16 and 60. The same was done for the whole border Military district which administratively ceased to exist.

Money.
By the time its independence was officially recognized Hungarian finances were in a really bad shape. With the ongoing uncertainty the paper money had been losing their value and the people had been hoarding the gold and silver. The Austrian National Bank, which was since 1816 handling the finances of all Hapsburg Monarchy, was now on the other side of a border. The country had a total of 4 banks, one land credit institute and 58 small local lending banks. Among these only the First Pest Domestic Savings Bank (founded in 1839 ) and the Pest Hungarian Commercial Bank (founded in 1841) could be considered Hungarian financial institutions of any importance. The obvious decision was creation of the Hungarian National bank and making it a sole issuer of the currency.

A newly created independent state right in the middle of Europe especially one that was so far one of the major European agricultural producers and now looking for the new customers, warranted a close attention. And the obvious fact that it is going to be closely economically associated with Russia warranted even more attention because if the opportunity is going to be neglected, all potential pie will end in the Russian hands. As a result, the bankers from Britain and France rushed in, expecting to get their share. The resulting political and economic optimism resulted in a “frenzied” expansion of the Hungarian banking system. Within the next 6 years 120 new banks were established as well as 206 savings institutions. On a sobering note, only 10 of those had been financial institutions of any significance while the rest were mostly speculative ventures destined to fell at the first serious crisis. Well, until this happened the whole society was busily trying to get as much money as possible as soon as possible and in this they were accompanied by the foreign capitalists. Both Anglo-Hungarian and Franco-Hungarian banks had been speedily established (none of survived for more than a decade). Long-living or not they provided money allowing an extensive and speedy railroads construction and this boom encouraged growth of the related industries of the wagon, locomotive and machine construction. A series of laws speedily introduced by the Parliament allowed the tax incentives for the expanding and newly-created industrial enterprises and introduction of the new technologies. Budapest (finally, a single city) became one of the fastest growing cities on continent. It wealth was to a great degree based on the milling industry with Hungary growing into one of the largest exporters of the milled flour in the world.

The biggest and the most important industrial enterprise was MAV (Hungarian Royal State Railroads' Machine Factory). Construction of Hungary's first railway line began in the second half of 1844. It is said that this was the first time that a steam locomotive was used on the completed line between Pest and Rákospalota, and later between Pest and Vác. The opening ceremony took place on 15 July 1846. Two companies, Hungarian-Belgian and Hungarian-Swiss, had been initially involved but due to the war they both went bankrupt and were liquidated with their plants being purchased by the state [6] which created MAV. With the independence the legal obstacles of the development of national industry were eliminated, and the opportunity or of the locomotives for the domestic purposes and export became available and later the factory added to its locomotives production of the agricultural equipment and threshing machines.
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The first small locomotives had been built for the local railways but within few years the more powerful models had been designed and produced for export to the biggest customer, the Russian Empire. Even the by now well-developed Russian locomotive industry could not fully fulfill demands of the fast growing railroads market and importing the high quality locomotives from Hungary was cheaper (and more convenient politically) than from Britain or France. Especially taking into an account that Hungary was importing big volumes of the Russian cast iron and steel.
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Construction of the international railroad passing through Russia-Poland-Hungary and another going through Moldavia had been accomplished within few years greatly simplifying communications.

However, all these cheerful news had been at least balanced by the fact that a big part of the population had quite limited income and could not actively buy the products of domestic industry. Besides, the liberated Hungary now had to create most of the needed manufacturing practically from the scratch because the usual sources of the manufactured goods were now in the different and not friendly state and at least for a while the domestic products were doomed to be more expensive and there were not enough of them. The government started investments into agricultural sector to make it more efficient (irrigation projects, stimulus fir the wine production, expansion of the credits, etc.). But the Hungarian agriculture mostly remained unmodernized. What’s worse, its vocal representatives adamantly refused to acknowledge the fact that to increase productivity you’d need a supporting industry.
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As was noticed by the Russian Consul-General in Budapest
"...But it should be noted with regret that Hungarian agrarians continued tireless agitation against other sectors of economic life of the state, namely industry and trade." This attitude, taking into an account that Hungary remained predominantly agricultural country (68% of its population had been working in agriculture, 13% in industry and the rest in other areas), sooner or later could start scaring off the foreign investors while the country did not yet accumulated enough of its own capital. It strongly looked like Austria is going to lower its import taxes on the Hungarian agricultural products so the things were as good as it gets and whatever will be, will be…

The Royal Court was not as majestic as one of FJI but it was much more open, the King and his wife were popular and Budapest was busily repairing from the damages caused by the war so while not to be happy? 😉

___________
[1] Money does not grow on trees.
[2] Not all that glitters is gold.
[3] Don’t wait for an opportunity. Create it!
[4] The election part stolen from the Russian Constitution of 1906. The change is the regional elections vs. elections by the social groups, which were supposed to provide some competence in the specific areas but produced little except the political bickering (my favorite example, opinion of the jurisprudence professors regarding construction of a railroad bridge across the Amur).
[5] More or less follows the Hungarian Diet within AH except from replacing Croatia with Transylvania and injecting State Council.
[6] In OTL in 1870.
 
Additionally, before any bill could be presented to the Diet, the King had to give his Royal Assent which was expected to be given after consideration by the State Council. In other words, the King has a big power which
As an enthusiast of Poder Moderador I see this as an absolute win
A newly created independent state right in the middle of Europe especially one that was so far one of the major European agricultural producers and now looking for the new customers, warranted a close attention. And the obvious fact that it is going to be closely economically associated with Russia warranted even more attention because if the opportunity is going to be neglected, all potential pie will end in the Russian hands.
Considering that this is for all intents and purposes a Russia-wank...

Glorious!
and public worship, of finance
Ah the power of a comma, for a second a thought we were in Britain
Within the next 6 years 120 new banks were established as well as 206 savings institutions. On a sobering note, only 10 of those had been financial institutions of any significance while the rest were mostly speculative ventures destined to fell at the first serious crisis. Well, until this happened the whole society was busily trying to get as much money as possible as soon as possible and in this they were accompanied by the foreign capitalists.
My mistake, we are actually in the United States
[1] Money does not grow on trees.
Im sorry but my country was founded on the premise that that is a lie
[3] Don’t wait for an opportunity. Create it!
Alright! Now where do I find some plutonium...

Maybe I should create that too
 
As an enthusiast of Poder Moderador I see this as an absolute win

For whom? Based on premise that any governmental activity results in something bad, the overly complicated system of making decisions is good for the people. Based on premise that the government knows better, the overcomplicated system results in the ideal decisions. Oops. I ended up saying that however you are looking at it, it is the best. Which was not my intention at all.
Considering that this is for all intents and purposes a Russia-wank...

But reality is a reality and this did happen after creation of AH. Which does not mean that there will be some good long term results (read closely about fate of the two biggest banks).

Glorious!

Ah the power of a comma, for a second a thought we were in Britain

Love of money is universal.

My mistake, we are actually in the United States

Actually, these are the real numbers for Hungary of 1879s-80s
And how did it work out?

In Russia?

😜
 
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