No GNW (or “Peter goes South”)

Given the logistic problems of an US-Mexican war I find doubtful that the result would be the same as OTL if in TTL Mexico has some measure of stability since independence unlike OTL Mexico that were a mess of infighting and changing governments.

In addition to this if Spain can lend some naval support the US invasion would be very difficult given the small fleet of US in OTL.

That's also a good argument, good stability paired with naval support from Spain would make war harder for the US, but now that I think about it would war even happen between US and Spain? Otl US was already unwilling to expand due to slavery issues and the admittance of Texas's would swing the favor towards the south, not to mention that events resulting in Mexican independence and creation of republic of Texas wouldn't happen under more stable Spain .

Other important thing to note is that Spain and the US resolved their border disputes via Adams–Onís Treaty that defined their border and secured purchase of Florida.

733px-Adams_onis_map.png


So technically we could expand this treaty to Louisiana purchase and avoid whole war while settling US - Spanish dispute.

Spain is selling a big chunk of it's land , but it can't really govern Louisiana and defend it against US effectively and Florida was a burden otl.

This would also solve problem that @alexmilman has with wider TL as until he has some other idea Spanish empire is holding on on it's colonies and there is clearly defined border between the US and Spain. Though the main question is still would Spain cede New Orleans to US as it had some commercial value , so it's quite possible Spain would keep that and border would be alongside red River and formerly Spanish Florida.

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In addition to this if Spain can lend some naval support the US invasion would be very difficult given the small fleet of US in OTL.
Don't discount the possibility that an attack on Mexico could bring the rest of Spanish America into the war, I doubt that even the most belligerent war hawk of the era would want a war involving the United States against most of the Americas.
 
But, it would also not be unreasonable to assume the tail will wag the dog again and a local conflict will flare out into war. Its not like the US was unwilling.
 
Yes, I believe that the Mexican-American war would not happen, even the most warmongering would not go to war against the entire continent, even if there were a war, I doubt that the US would come out well. Furthermore, a stable Mexico is likely to grow much faster in population and possibly be attractive to Catholic immigrants.
 
An offer you can’t refuse
230. An offer you can’t refuse

“Russia can't get any real benefits from Poland...”
Nicholas I, January 1831. [1]
Fools make feasts and wise men eat them.
Benjamin Franklin
There's always a crook next to the fool.”
Honoré de Balzac
“I assure you, he's not as stupid as he will seem to you when you get to know him better.”
Mikhail Svetlov
“It's much easier to use a person if you convince him that he's using you.”
Shoshi-san
Whoever helps you make cunning plans to achieve your goal is much more likely to use you as a tool for his own purposes.”
Mikhail Weller​


1849.

On December 13, Windisgretz crossed the administrative border of Hungary. On December 16, Josip Jelačić (the Ban of Croatia)also crossed the border and defeated Hungarian troops at the Battle of the Sea, and later occupied Mochonmagyarovar and Győr.
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On January 5, 1849, Austro-Croatian troops (Windischgretz, Jelačić) captured Pest.

The leaders of the Hungarian rebellion fled to Debrecen. The main mass of Hungarian troops (16,000), under the leadership of Görgey, then retreated to Weizen, and the rest (up to 10,000), under the leadership of Perzel, to Solnok (Northern Alföld).

The “interested third parties” (Russia, France, Prussia, Ottoman Empire) were watching situation closely but none of them was eager to get directly involved on the Hungarian side because this would mean a major war and even a relatively short one was going to be expensive while the gain was going to be mostly “political”: decreased influence of Austria with little or no territorial acquisitions to show the public at home.

Both for France and Russia such a war would be involving, by the obvious geographic reasons, the third parties, which would require their share of the pie. For France this was more or less a theory but Russia already fought such wars and while they were glorious, the benefits were of the type you can’t see on a map and “fighting for somebody else’s gain” started losing its popularity.

Prussia was not ready for the major war economically and militarily and its participation may produce a domino effect within the HRE with the unclear consequences. The Ottomans were still in a process of modernizing their army and had an “interesting time” keeping their vassals in check.

In other words, there was a need for some “second tier” power to risk confrontation with Austria and, putting aside the unrealistic HRE options like Bavaria and Saxony, this was leaving two plausible candidates: Piedmont and Poland.

As of now Piedmont was thoroughly beaten and made an armistice with Austria by which it lost the territory of the former Cisalpine Republic. There was little doubt that as soon as the armistice expires Radetzky will proceed with beating the Piedmontese so they hardly were of any positive use in the Austrian-Hungarian scheme except for having 70,000 Austrian troops stuck in Italy. The best thing realistically possible was to keep as many Austrians there for as long as possible. To a certain degree the ongoing revolutionary activities all over the peninsula were helpful in doing so and the Russan-Ottoman-French naval presence on. the Adriatic was hinting to some greater plans forcing Julius Jakob Freiherr von Haynau to stay in Veneto with 25,000 troops (out of overall 70,000) while Radetzki, after finally forcing Piedmontese to ask for peace would have to garrison Lombardy and to take into an account 50,000 French troops doing their exercises just across the border with Piedmont.
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Which left Poland and this option started looking quite promising.

Poland.
In December of 1848 King Joseph I died at the age of 85 being succeeded by his grandson Joseph II. The new king was 25 years old and, not being a national icon like his predecessor, had to pay much more attention to the public opinion and to …er… other factors.
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And there were very serious “other factors”. During the peaceful decades following the Great Polish War the kingdom prospered but to a great degree this prosperity was due to the extremely benevolent policy of Alexander and then Nicholas. The Kingdom enjoyed the benefits of the most favorable nation all the way to the right of re-exporting to the Russian territory the 3rd party goods either explicitly forbidden or subject to the very high import tariff if going directly to the Russian customs. The same applied to the Polish woolen cloth even if the Russian manufacturers had been strongly complaining and so was the Russian Finance Ministry. Besides traditionally used Swedish-held Baltic ports the Kingdom was increasingly relying on the Russian Black Sea ports, especially Odessa. Then there were numerous subsidies used, among other things, on creating the textile production in Lodz: the initial expenses on creating an infrastructure were considerable, the Kingdom in the early 1820s was short of money and not considered an attractive investment region by the foreign banks. The Bank of Poland was established only in 1828 and its initial capital was quite low, 30,000,000 zloty and the failed state-backed plans to expand the Polish metallurgy led to a need for the Treasury to issue in 1841 60,000,000 zloty worth of the bonds after which the Bank of Poland had to withdraw from the long-term loans and focus on the short-term transactions. There were few private banks but their capital were much smaller.

To a big degree the loans were resulting from the direct orders coming from Alexander and Nicholas with his tendency to follow the established rules and precedents was following even to a much lesser degree. Of course, Russia being what it was, even the direct imperial order did not mean its immediate (or at all) execution and the Ministry of Finances had been routinely sabotaging delivery of many outrageous “gifts” but could not stop them completely.

To make a long story short, by 1830 the Polish debt to Russia amounted to more than 67,000,000 zloty [3] lended at 6% and kept growing. Here comes the funny part. While the Russian debts to the Polish side had been meticulously paid, this was not the case in other direction: it was considered below the dignity of a Russian Emperor to talk about the lowly subjects like return of the debts and on a high level the issue was routinely limited to the subjects of “loyalty”, “adoration”, “affection”, “generosity”, etc. Who could fault the Poles for using the partner’s foolishness?

Well, Nicholas could go along for quite a while but now it was seemingly a good time to take some advantage of the situation. The first step was to encourage the “patriotic” party in the Kingdom, which was rather easy and did not even require the noticeable investments. The calls for getting back Galicia started during the reign of Joseph I and now they became extremely loud getting a big and growing traction among the Polish military.
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The peacetime army was 28,000 - 30,000 strong and could be easily expanded to 100,000. Of that, about 57,000 could be seen as a qualified, first-line troops. Obligatory military service was set at 10 years, with the option of buying one's time out. The Army was well trained, with a new cadet school in Kalisz, a number of podchorąży training schools, and a higher military school in Warsaw. The peacetime Army was composed of two infantry divisions with three brigades each, two cavalry divisions with two brigades each, and two artillery brigades (one cavalry and one infantry). Each infantry brigade was about 3,600 strong, each cavalry brigade was about half that size. The cost of maintaining the army was close to 50% of the Kingdom's budget.
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Caveat: the army was well-trained, at least as far as the general contemporary understanding of the term was going; during one of his numerous visits to Warsaw Alexander remarked that the Polish troops are marching in a better order than his Guards.

Then goes a very important part, the self-esteem. It was extremely high and, with the participants of the GPW gradually dying out, it was getting higher and higher being promoted both by the legends and by the historic works in which the Polish bravery was growing into the main factor of the eventual victory [4]. So the spirit was there but the decades of peace left the current “inherent heroes” without a chance to demonstrate their own bravery. The same was applicable to the very top. With a growing popular enthusiasm for getting Galicia back, Joseph II was thoroughly tempted to win some glory of his own.
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His Prime Minister, the elderly Prince Adam Jerzy Czartoryski, was quite sympathetic to the idea but pointed out that getting into a war with Austria without backing from Russia can be quite risky: what about potential backstabbing by Prussia or the Russian intervention on Austrian behalf? After all, Emperor Nicholas was not famous for his support of the revolutionary activities and just helped the Ottomans to deal with their rebels. And, not to be forgotten, the recent economic crisis resulted in Russia somewhat restricting its benevolent trade policy, so what if Nicholas gets angry and simply cancels all existing trade privileges or, God forbid, insists of paying off the Polish debts?

The issues had been brought to the Russian Ambassador and in no time the Prince Adam prince got the most satisfactory answers to all his questions. There was even a hint to the possibility, in the case of the Polish serious and successful military commitment, to restructuring the existing debt which by that time was well over 70,000,000 zloty: Nicholas was willing to forgive part of it and to lower rate from 6% to 5% [5]. Prince Adam also was assured that there will be no hostile action from Prussia. Both Russia and Prussia are not going to object to the return of the territory lost by Poland to Austria during the Partition: it looks like the Polish population of the region had been systematically mistreated and the only remedy is seemingly to return Galicia to where it belongs. And, of course, there is no doubt that the brave Poles will use an opportunity to confirm once more their reputation. But, in the unlikely case of the Polish failure, Russia and Prussia are ready to guarantee that they’ll resist the Austrian invasion of the Kingdom by all means necessary.

Carrot being delivered, there was a hint to the stick: taking into an account a very complicated economic situation in Europe, both Russia and Sweden may reconsider their existing tariff policies to protect their own economies unless they are compelled not to do so by the prompt Polish actions.

After confirmations had been received from Berlin and Stockholm the options boiled down to a single one and Poland declared a war on Austria.
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Of course, with all ongoing enthusiasm one tiny issue was overlooked. By 1848 the Kingdom pretty much run out of the experienced generals and the top ranking one, Józef Grzegorz Chłopicki, while still looking “eaglish” on the portraits, was 77 yeas old and, while personally brave, never held a serious independent command or gave any reason to assume that he was a military genius or even just a capable army commander. Well, it is not that, with the exception of Radetzky, who was safely stuck in Italy, the Austrian military and political leadership was packed by the brilliant personages so probably knowledge of the military routine would be enough for the task.

The chess board had been set and as of now the main goal of the Big players was to deprive Franz Joseph of freedom of moving his resources without getting directly involved themselves.


_______
[1] When the uprising started Nicholas was thinking for a short while about giving up on the whole thing with the Kingdom of Poland but then he had a second thought. Which may, or may not, demonstrate usefulness of the thinking.
[2] While ITTL Alexander was noticeably less involved due to the obvious fact of him not being the King of Poland, his fixation with the Poles remains the same: besides having a Polish mistress (and the Polish boyfriend for his wife with his full consent), he was considering Poland as a security factor on the Russian Western border and, last by not least, the Poles with their easy show of an affection were much closer to his his narcissist heart than his more restrained subjects. Well, and as far as he was concerned Poland was the “west” while Russia was not. 😉
[3] As in OTL.
[4] Look at descriptions of some battles of 1831 in wiki. Besides rather questionable outcomes (after which an alleged victor is invariably retreating) the terms “brave” are applied (as far as I could find) exclusively to one side. In OTL this was a part of AI’s explicit policy of courting the Poles: their bravery during the Napoleonic wars had been emphasized to ignore rather unsavory incidents in 1813. And if you keep telling somebody that he is exceptionally brave, the recipient will eventually adopt your point of view. 😂
[5] If you do not expect the debt to be returned, that type of a generosity costs you little. 😉
 
Yes, I believe that the Mexican-American war would not happen, even the most warmongering would not go to war against the entire continent, even if there were a war, I doubt that the US would come out well. Furthermore, a stable Mexico is likely to grow much faster in population and possibly be attractive to Catholic immigrants.
As you may notice, I did not put any specifics besides mentioning that there was a war. Its timing coincides with the 2nd Carlist War so Spain has plenty problems of its own and involvement of the whole Spanish Southern America is easier said than done taking into an account state of the communications and willingness/unwillingness of each specific territory to join and make some substantial contribution.

The war may, for all that I care, end up with a stalemate or some minor border adjustment with the Texan rebellion being crushed in the 1836 (which almost happened). But the US expansionism was an objective reality which can’t be easily ignored and Alta California was considered a rich territory and the American settlers already had been there acting as the fifth column. Many of the OTL problems could be avoided with a stable government capable to maintain a well-organized and adequately armed Mexican army even if the US still remained more industrially developed. With the numerous changes and a greater Catholic population in Texas and CA Mexico may retain them or most of them.

What’s interesting to me is how the gold rush is going to be handled in this framework where the gringos are out and how it may impact the general economic situation on both sides of the border (AFAIK, the US financial system noticeably gained from obtaining a big amount of gold). In OTL it had a world-wide economic effect but will it be the same under Mexico?
 
As you may notice, I did not put any specifics besides mentioning that there was a war. Its timing coincides with the 2nd Carlist War so Spain has plenty problems of its own and involvement of the whole Spanish Southern America is easier said than done taking into an account state of the communications and willingness/unwillingness of each specific territory to join and make some substantial contribution.

The war may, for all that I care, end up with a stalemate or some minor border adjustment with the Texan rebellion being crushed in the 1836 (which almost happened). But the US expansionism was an objective reality which can’t be easily ignored and Alta California was considered a rich territory and the American settlers already had been there acting as the fifth column. Many of the OTL problems could be avoided with a stable government capable to maintain a well-organized and adequately armed Mexican army even if the US still remained more industrially developed. With the numerous changes and a greater Catholic population in Texas and CA Mexico may retain them or most of them.

What’s interesting to me is how the gold rush is going to be handled in this framework where the gringos are out and how it may impact the general economic situation on both sides of the border (AFAIK, the US financial system noticeably gained from obtaining a big amount of gold). In OTL it had a world-wide economic effect but will it be the same under Mexico?
It is good to have a strong Mexico or New Spain for this case, it is true what you said about US expansionism being a reality. But in this case I doubt they can annex all of Northern Mexico.
Mexico at this point does not have the war that kills 1 million people, destroys its industry, nor does it have huge debt or problems staying together.
Possibly it ends in a deadlock, and this comes to the second part.

US at this point the Louisiana Purchase is much later and has the problem of slavery, the war could increase the problems they have. The north might get angry that the south got them into a stupid war to increase slavery and the south might feel more pressured.

The way things are going, Mexico could begin to further develop its northern territories in the face of the threat they face and with the discovery of gold they could start an immigration to California. When the US returns after solving its problems and the civil war, things will have already changed, California and Texas are full of Hispanic Catholics and that is something that the US itself does not like.

In the end I feel that the US will not become the superpower that it is.
 
In the end I feel that the US will not become the superpower that it is.
I think the US has yet all the ingredients to be a superpower or at least the first of the great powers by a big margin.

TTL Russia, if there isn't any big disaster like post WW1 revolution and civil war, collectivisations or WW2 analog could be really the first superpower.
 
I think the US has yet all the ingredients to be a superpower or at least the first of the great powers by a big margin.

TTL Russia, if there isn't any big disaster like post WW1 revolution and civil war, collectivisations or WW2 analog could be really the first superpower.
Ranking of the “superpowers” is a tricky thing and I’m trying to avoid it.

Objectively, short of the ASB involvement, Russia can’t beat Britain in the colonial expansion and resulting international trade and power of its navy. So its military and economic power is mostly “landlocked”. Policy of trying to bully the rest of Europe based strictly upon the military power failed for Napoleon and for Nicholas I so the best scenario is not to dominate but rather to cooperate, as ITTL is the case with the Baltic League and ongoing policy of partnership: in OTL the Ottomans were a “permanent enemy” and France in the XIX was a hostile or at least unfriendly power more often then not. So it is not #1 in the meaning which seems to be popular now.

OTOH, with the European relations being seriously different from those of OTL, Britain can’t easily play the continental powers one against another and its industrial dominance is not a major factor if at all in a long run (still a factor in 1840s). In OTL by the end of the XIX it started losing positions to Germany and ITTL Europe did not pass through the disastrous period of the Napoleonic wars from which Britain ended up being a major winner economically. Then, again, its sprawling colonial empire (to which Spain is already a competitor and France got into the game much earlier than in OTL taking away few juicy pieces) is both strength (ability to loot the resources and push its goods down the natives’ throats) and weakness (huge resources has to be spend to protect the territories and communications). With the continental Europe lacking some of the OTL “issues”, British politics there is much less influential. And one important OTL factor is absent: Britain fails to establish its overwhelming influence in Egypt so if and when the Suez canal is constructed it is not British. So Britain is definitely a superpower but not the only one.
 
On the Danube
231. On the Danube

“Lightly we breast the Danube's wave,
The beautiful Danube, clear and blue,
Lightly we breast the Danube's wave,
The Beautiful Danube, clear and blue,

C.C. Haskins, ‘On The Beautiful Blue Danube’, 1874

All the years have come, and the years have gone,
but the oft told tale is not true,
for of all the things the Danube is,
the Danube is not blue.
The Danube is green,
what's more it ain't clean.
It's green as a bean.
It ain't not serene.”

Hank Show, ‘Blue Danube Waltz’, 1990 [1]

The situation is hopeless but not serious.”
Austrian Saying [2]

Cheer up: there is no hope.”
“He understood that he made some mistake, just could not figure out which one”

A. Chiz, ‘Rules of a happy marriage’

“Aki mer, az nyer.” [3]
Hungarian proverb
A cél szentesíti az eszközt.” [4]
Hungarian proverb​


Hungary and around
The military activities of 1848 are shown on the map below. The army led by Jelacic (mostly Croatians) invaded Hungarian territory and successfully prevented the Hungarian march on Vienna allowing Franz Joseph to crush the uprising here and mobilize his Austrian contingents.

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In the early 1949 both sides had been trying to put their acts together, which, taking into an account a very complicated situation for both of them combined with a generally mediocre-to-low qualifications of the political and especially military leadership on both sides was not a trivial task, to put it mildly.

The war being a byproduct of a failed diplomacy [5], let’s start with the political framework:
  • Emperor Ferdinand abdicated as an Emperor, Archduke of Austria and whoever else he was but he could not constitutionally abdicate as King of Hungary: according to the Hungarian coronation oath, a crowned Hungarian King cannot abdicate the Hungarian throne during his lifetime. At most he could assign a governor to rule in his name but, unless he was willing to commit a seppuku [6], he was still a legal King of Hungary and Franz Joseph, as far as the Hungarians were involved, was a legal nobody even after he was confirmed as the Emperor of HRE (of which Hungary was not a part). Only the Hungarian parliament (Diet) had the power to dethrone the monarch and elect his successor as the new king of Hungary. So a seemingly reasonable course of action for FJ would be to behave as a nice guy and ask the Hungarians to make him a king, pretty please. Initially, they were quite willing to accept such an option providing he recognizes this parliament and the constitution it adopted, so called “12 points” or “April Laws”, which did not really contain any outrageous demands and which was accepted by his predecessor making the whole Hapsburg monstrosity into a dual monarchy with two equal partners joined by a personal union.
  • Upon these news Ban Jelacic immediately revolted and raised troops in his domains. Legally this meant that a monarch attacks one of his country's appointed and lawful governments with another of his country's army. By all legal norms Jelacic was a rebel but FJI saw it other way around. The final break between Vienna and Pest occurred when Field-Marshal Count Franz Philipp von Lamberg was given control of all armies in Hungary (including Jelačić's). He went to Hungary where he was mobbed and brutally murdered. Following his murder the Imperial court dissolved the Hungarian Diet and appointed Jelačić as Regent. Which was, of course, a masterstroke.
  • FJI revoked the “April Laws” which he constitutionally had no right to do because they were already signed by his predecessor and approved by the Hungarian parliament.
  • In March of 1849 FJI adopted a new new constitution, the so-called Stadion Constitution, which was “centralist” providing a very strong royal power and was drafted by the Imperial Diet of Austria, where Hungary had no representation. OTOH, the Diet of Austria and other similar legislative bodies did not have a power in Hungary so from the Hungarian perspective this was a worthless piece of paper which, however, tried to abolish the Diet of Hungary (which existed as the supreme legislative power in Hungary since the late 12th century.) The new Austrian constitution also went against the historical constitution of Hungary, and even tried to nullify it.
  • As a result, those in Hungary who supported a constitutional monarchy and the Hapsburg union found themselves out of options, their leader, Batthyány, resigned and pro-independence movement led by Lajos Kossuth got an upper hand and a legally perfect excuse for breaking all ties with the Hapsburgs.
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Hungary now had war raging on three fronts: Jelačić's Croatian troops to the South, Romanians in Banat and in Transylvania to the East, and Austria to the west. To be fair, situation with the Romanians were not a clear cut in the terms of the loyalties and pretty much the only firmly pro-Hapsburg ethnic group there were local Germans.
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The Croatians, while being pro-Austrian, were not some kind of a superb military power and their leader (and future national hero) was not a very good general: in September of 1848 his army of 35 - 40,000 Croatian-Austrian troops with 99 cannons had been beaten at Pakozd by the Hungarian army of 27,000 with 82 cannons. The losses on both sides were small and the encounter, which happened well before the final breakout, did not produce any strategic results but it demonstrated a big gap between Jelacic’s ambitious plan of enemy’s annihilation and ability to implement it. Anyway, an idea to proceed with the 2nd step, which in the plan depended upon success of the 1st step, after the 1st step demonstrably failed would make a difference between a great general (if the 2nd step wins no matter what) and a dimwit (if it fails, as was the case).
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A July 11, 1848 act of parliament in Budapest called for the formation of an army, the Honvédség, of 200,000 which would use the Magyar language of command. It was to be formed around already extant imperial units, twenty battalions of infantry, ten hussar regiments, and two regiments of Székely from the Transylvanian Military Frontier. They were further joined by eight companies of two Italian regiments stationed in Hungary and parts of the Fifth Bohemian Artillery Regiment. Most of these troops initially lacked military training and were under-equipped comparing to the Austrian troops.
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At the start of 1849 Hungarian military situation looked as following:
  • Görgey's army - 58,000 people - was located in western Hungary;
  • Klapka's corps - 18,000 people - near Neisol and Rosenberg;
  • Dembinsky's corps - 30,000 people - near Leitschau in Slovakia;
  • Damianich's corps - 15,000 people - Kasau;
  • Bem's corps - 30,000 people - was located in Banat and guarded mountain passages to Transylvania;
  • Perzel's corps - 10,000 people - was in Zombor near Nagykurtyosh.
The bad thing was that a considerable part of these troops had very little military training and, equally bad, was a problem with arming them: considerable part of the infantry got the old flintlocks from the arsenals and unlucky ones got pikes. And the Austrian had a considerable advantage in the artillery because, just as was the case with the muskets, some old cannons had been taken from the fortresses and arsenals to get something close to the numeric parity.



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The main Austrian forces (about 80,000 people), under the command of Prince Windischgretz, before the outbreak of hostilities, consisted of:
  • 1st Infantry Corps (Field Marshal-Lieutenant Jelačić) - 16 battalions, 24 squadrons, 52 guns (21,418 people);
  • 2nd Infantry Corps (Field Marshal Lieutenant Count Wrbne) - 17.3 battalions, 7 squadrons, 54 guns (20,358 people);
  • 3rd (Reserve) Corps (Field Marshal Lieutenant Serbelloni) - 5 battalions, 25 squadrons, 108 guns (15,250 people);
  • Vienna's garrison - 17 battalions, 10 squadrons, 36 guns (22852 people).

There were also 70,000 troops in Italy but certain measures had been taken to prevent any big part of them from moving anywhere.

And on the other side of the equation there was now a Polish army of at least 35-40,000 marching toward Galicia which meant that Windischgretz could not count upon any reinforcements because part of the available troops had to be sent to Galicia and in a view of the ambiguous behavior of Prussia Czechia also could not be left totally undefended. So, at least in a short run, his main advantage was in a better equipment and training of his troops.

In a meantime on the (still) Blue Danube.
Starting from the early 1830s it was popular among the British politicians to bemoan about the barbaric Ottomans (incited by the perfidious Russians) not allowing for a full freedom of navigation over the Danube. Since then, the Ottomans somewhat moved to accommodate the British demands and even (with the help of the perfidious Russians) did some dragging on the Sulina mouth of the Danube. The idea of a huge flow of various goods being shipped to and from all along the river proved to be somewhat optimistic, just as the perspectives of the British business in the principalities. However, there was some commercial traffic, part of which was going as far as Hungary and few relatively small British companies managed to survive in the Wallachian market. Unfortunately, with the hostilities in Hungary and the local rebellions on the Hungarian lands populated by various minorities, substance of which (rebellions, not the minorities 😉) nobody could clearly explain, the traffic beyond the Ottoman borders became unsafe and there were even problems at the Serbian (Ottoman) segment of the river. As a result, one or two commercial steamers carrying the British merchandise had been looted and there were even some fatalities.
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In the absence of the clear evidence to the contrary, the consensus was that the culprits may be the Serbs of Vojvodina, who rebelled against Hungary and could show a bad example to the Ottoman Serbs. There was clearly something about religious fanaticism as a motivation because they were ruled by a priest and the Brits did not approve of the religious fanatics (except for their own). Survivors of the incidents reported that the pirates had long mustaches and did not understand English or Turkish so who else could they be?
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The fiery speeches in the British Parliament just started when the Ottoman Ambassador in Britain, Kostaki Musurus Pasha, [6] informed the Foreign Secretary, Lord Palmerston, that the incidents had been caused by certain personages on the other side of a border obviously trying to incite the unrest in Ottoman Serbia. The Ottoman government is taking measures to make navigation on the Danube safe again: the armed Turkish river steamships will be cruising the river and escorting caravans of the merchant ships being assisted by the few small Russian steamships that, fortunately, still had been on the Danube by the Sultan’s request waiting for a complete settlement of the Moldavian and Wallachian disturbances. If Britain wanted to participate, it can send 3 or 4 warships suitable for operations on the rivers. This patrolling is planned to be strictly until the ongoing fighting is going on or perhaps simply until one of the fighting sides establishes a firm control over the Hungarian part of the Danube thus preventing the future incidents. The Ottoman government is in a full control of all operations within its part of the Danube, with which the Russian agreed, and of course the same will be expected from the British ships if Britain decides to participate. If not, then perhaps the government of Her British Majesty will be willing to make a contribution to cover a part of the cost? In any case the issue will be taken care of and don’t you worry, the Russian ships are not going to remain on the Danube for a single extra day.

Discussion in the Parliament smoothly switched to the practical subjects: (a) to send or not to send the ships, (b) if yes, then how about the need to operate under the Ottoman command (and how will it work with the Russians if the Ottomans agree to operate under the British command), (c) what to send (after consultation with the RN it was found that there are no suitably small steamships anywhere close) and (d) what about the money ( the consensus was that this is Ottomans’ duty so why Britain should pay?). Everybody in the Parliament involved felt that the time was well-spent and the major newspapers concurred.

The Russian and Ottoman governments also had been quite happy. So were few hundred Albanian bashi-bazouks happily marching back to Albania with the purses full of silver….

Kostaki Musurus Pasha did not lie when he spoke about few small Russian steamships. They were few and they were rather small. Met the monitor of “Strelets” class.
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It was designed along the lines of the initial Ericsson’s project but, based upon the obtained experience, with some serious changes. The most important was that unlike Eriksson's towers, which lay with all their bottom around the perimeter directly on the deck and for rotation should be lifted on the central support column, the new towers were installed on rollers located around the perimeter of the walls and, without need for preliminary lifting, were always ready to turn. Another advantage of the new tower was the removal of all supports and drives from its interior (strongly cluttered the Eriksson towers) and placing them together with the central support pin under the tower platform to the lower deck. The tower itself went deep into a circular niche made in the upper deck, thereby improving the stability of the ship and reducing the size of the target for enemy shells. The ship had draft of 3.1-3.3 meters, displacement of 1,524 tons, power 600 kW, speed up to 8 knots, 2 9 inch smoothbore guns, armor: hull 5 in, gun turret 11 in, funnel base 6 in, desk 0.5 in and conning tower 8 in [7].

10 of them had been built on the Nikolaev wharf within a year and now 4, with a dozen of the small unarmored Russian and Ottoman steam warships had been circulating along the Ottoman part of the Danube valiantly protecting the merchant ships (which nobody wanted to attack but this is besides the point). There were two rather rhetorical questions:
  • Does freedom of navigation apply to a merchant ship carrying the military supplies ? The answer was: “yes, if (a) you don’t know what it is carrying and (b) can’t do anything about it”.
  • Which logically leads to the second question: does freedom of navigation stop at some specific border? Well, what kind of a “free” navigation would it be?
In practical terms it meant that if a merchandise has to be delivered to a recipient by getting through a zone of the military activities, then it has to be protected and in the present situation from whom are you supposed to ask for permission to sail across the border? So the merchandise has to be well-protected and 4 ironclads looked as an adequate protection. To make the long story short, going from the Danube o the Tisza River through the Ottoman Serbia leads to the territory held by the Hungarian government allowing to deliver 30,000 percussion cap guns, dozens of cannons and plenty of supplies [8].
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So far the ironclads had been acting just as the caravans’ escorts but a coaling (and not only) station established in Belgrade could allow all sorts of options. A lot depended upon how fast on uptake the regent-president of the kingdom of Hungary , Lajos Kossuth, will prove to be.
____________
[1] In both cases music is the same, by Johann Strauss 😜
[2] I’m under impression that I saw this with a different attribution
[3] He who dares, wins
[4] The ends justify the means
[5] Forgot who said this
[6] Actually, he was an ambassador from 1850 but I could not find who, if any, was in 1848.
[7] Cheating: the better gun towers appeared on class “Smerch” (had 2 towers instead of one) and the same goes for power and speed. But both series appeared almost simultaneously so the good things could happen on both. In a reality they were built in 1860s on the Baltic for coastal defense. But the armored river monitors had been used during the Great Paraguayan War of 1864-70 so it is probably not completely ASB to assume that a similar thing may happen IITL couple decades earlier: after all, this alt-Russia is slightly ahead of OTL Paraguay and Brazil of the 1860s. 😉
[8] Don’t confuse this with a selfless generosity: first, Russia is switching from the smoothbore bronze cannons to the steel breach loading rifled ones and second, Nicholas has certain plans regarding the future of Hungary and wants it to be grateful.
 
Don’t confuse this with a selfless generosity: first, Russia is switching from the smoothbore bronze cannons to the steel breach loading rifled ones and second, Nicholas has certain plans regarding the future of Hungary and wants it to be grateful.

Technically Russia has a lot to win from disintegration of Austrian empire so just that is price enough, but otherwise I'm interested, given that Hungary is quite conservative at the time they will probably chose to be a Monarchy, not to mention that they will prefer to be ideologically closer to Russia, so I'm interested who will be new royal candidate and is it possible for him to be from Russia?
 
Things are getting hot
232. Things are getting hot

«…гладко было на бумаге, да забыли про овраги…»
Лев Толстой [1]
Die erste Kolonne marschiert, die zweite Kolonne marschiert...”
Weyrother [2]
It's the same thing in love and war: the fortress negotiating is half taken.”
Margaret of Navarre Valois
“Report. Developing the offensive, we burned several more villages. The surviving residents gave our troops an enthusiastic meeting.”
Karel Čapek


Galicia.
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The Polish army marching into Galicia did not expect major problems and with a good reasons (or at least seemingly good reasons):
  • The local nobility was predominantly Polish and disliked the Austrians who were consistently working on germanization of the region.
  • Galicia was, for all practical purposes, pretty much cut off from the Austrian lands by rebelling Hungary and hardly could count upon the reinforcements.
  • In the big cities, especially Lemberg, there was a noticeable Polish pro-reform/anti-germanization movement which, with a high probability, will side with the coming Polish army. In Lemberg there was even some kind of a Polish National Guard, unfortunately, pretty much unarmed and lacking any military training.
Both these considerations were, of course, correct but ignored few inconvenient facts:
  • In 1846 there was a massive uprising of the peasants in Western (predominantly Polish) Galicia. Galician peasants who rebelled against the Polish landowners actually turned out to be allies of the Austrian government. The Galician uprising began on February 19, 1846. Armed bands of peasants ravaged and destroyed more than 500 estates within a few weeks of February-March 1846 (in the Tarnów area, more than 90% of the estates were destroyed). Killed, often in the most cruel way, from 1,200 to 3,000 people, almost exclusively representatives of the Polish gentry, officials, Catholic priests. Allegedly, the Austrians had been paying premiums per head. Of course, after enough of a destruction had been done, the Austrians suppressed the uprising but the point was that these peasants were not expecting anything good from the coming liberators.
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  • The peasants of the Eastern Galicia were predominantly not Polish and tended to consider they Polish landowners as the oppressors while the Austrian authorities, being oppressors of the oppressors, were viewed more positively.
  • While there was only limited Austrian military presence in Galicia, the Austrian government took care about strongly fortifying two strategically important points, Lemberg (Lwov, Lviv) and Przemyśl.

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Lemberg. The citadel of Lemberg was built in 1842-1844 and is a structure consisting of four round towers and a V-shaped barracks with two square towers at the edges. The diameter of the northern towers is 36 meters, the smaller southern ones - 18 meters. Below is the original construction plan. The citadel is located on the hill, which was formed by three small mountains - Mount Shembek (Vronovsky), Mount Poznanskaya (Pelchinskaya) and Zhebratskaya (Kalich, that is, beggar) mountain. Artillery placed on the heights was easily controlling the city and the steep slopes defended the hills from attacks on three sides. A pond below would serve as a source of water for the garrison. The approaches to the citadel were strengthened by three trench systems at a distance of 1.3 km from the center of the citadel.
Politically, when the revolutions of 1848 started, on March 19 a mass demonstration in support of the revolution was held in Lemberg, during which a program of the national movement of Galicia was adopted, designed in the form of an address to Emperor Ferdinand I. Among the requirements of this program were the abolition of serfdom and the elimination of serfdom, the autonomy of Galicia and the introduction of the Polish language in schools and public administration, the removal of foreign officials, the proclamation of democratic freedoms, the introduction of equality of citizens before the law and the reorganization of the provincial Sejm. The address was signed by about 12 thousand residents of Lemberg, which accounted for almost a sixth of the total population of the city. Governor of Galicia Franz Varthausen Stadium made concessions to revolutionaries, authorizing the formation of the National Guard and removing hated officials from the government. On March 21, when the governor tried to ban meetings in Lemberg, an uprising broke out but was speedily suppressed.
So the Polish army could expect a warm greeting from the Polish part of the city population but most probably its Jewish population (approximately a quarter of the city population) would be less excited and the German population even less so. Dealing with the citadel was going to be a separate issue unless the Austrian garrison decided to capitulate.

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Przemyśl. Located on the San river, the city was considered something of the “gates” between Western and Eastern Galicia. Initial plans for the construction of 41 earth fortifications were developed at the beginning of the XIX century and by 1830 19 of the 41 initially planned earth fortifications were completed, another nine were under construction the barracks, weapons depots and access roads were already built. By 1849 the temporary earth defense fortifications have been converted into solid long-term brick fortifications. A garrison consisting of five battalions of infantry, artillery and sappers was located in the fortress but when hostilities started it was strengthened by the Austrian troops retreating under the fortress’ protection from the less secure places of the Western Galicia raising the defenders numbers to at least 15,000.

Campaign of the Polish army started along the lines of expected best-case scenario. Under the leadership of King Joseph II (with general Chlopicki as an advisor) the troops entered Western Galicia and had been proceeding in pretty much a triumph march from one town to another being greeted and feted by the cheering population and the landowners. The supply problems were, so far, rather minor even if there already was a growing need for the requisitions because the already dirt poor peasants sometimes were reluctant to provide their liberators with the necessities. With almost complete absence of the Austrian resistance the main obstacle to the speedy march were, so far, celebrations on the way and a need to make arrangements for a new administration, meet delegations, confirm the existing privileges and grant the new ones, etc. So only in the late May of 1849 the army reached Przemyśl. The garrison rejected capitulation offer and the military council was assembled to discuss the options. Basically, there were two:
  • Cross the San river either on the South at Sanok or on the North at Jaroslaw and proceed eastward leaving a blockade force at Przemyśl.
  • To lay siege on Przemyśl, take it and after that advance eastward with no threats at the rear.
A prevailing wisdom coming from the geriatric Chlopicki and supported by a majority was that leaving a major fortress with a powerful garrison in a rear is just too risky. The army was assembled fast with the reserves practically not being mobilized and now, with a need to leave garrisons in the Western Galicia, out of the initial 35,000 less than 30,000 had been available. A blockade force has to be big enough to securely protect both sides of the river, which means that it should be at least 15 - 20,000 and this would leave only 10 - 15,000 for the future campaign, which is extremely risky. Ignoring the fortress altogether also is a risky idea because its garrison will be free to act on the Polish communications cutting supply line and forcing to re-orient the whole logistics to the sector between the San and Bug or to make the arrangements with the Russians regarding supplies from Volhynia and Podolia which, even with the Russian Empire being so far friendly neutral, had its own problems.

So the prudent decision seems to be to start the siege. This will give time to complete mobilization of the Polish reserves (and probably to raise some troops in the Western Galicia as well) and to bring a heavy siege train from Warsaw. By that time the garrison maybe starved into the submission or, if not, after arrival of the heavy artillery, surrender was going to be just a matter of a regular siege. In a meantime, some cavalry detachments can be sent to the East of the San River to raise enthusiasm among the locals and collect some supplies.

Hungary.
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Artúr Görgei de Görgő et Toporc was born in 1818 and by 1848 he was a chemist with the European name recognition. When the revolution started he changed profession, joined the Hungarian army and within few months made a career from captain to general. Before the hostilities started he was sent to Istanbul, Wiener Neustadt and to Prague to buy percussion caps, primers and weapons for the newly raised troops. He first met Kossuth on 30 August 1848, when he proposed building a factory to produce percussion caps and primers, for which the politician promised to obtain funds. On 11 September 1848, when the troops of Jelačić crossed the Dráva river to enter Hungary, Görgei's national guards were ordered to come from Szolnok to Csepel Island to keep an eye on the movements of Croatian supplies. Here, Görgei organized the villagers from the region to observe and capture the envoys and supply carriages sent from Croatia to Jelačić and back. He was successful in both tasks culmination of which was capture, court-martial and execution of a pro-Hapsburg Hungarian noble whom Jelačić sent to inform his subordinate Croatian commanders about his plan to attack Buda and Pest.
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Later in 1848, as a commander of 2,500 trained troops supported by 16,500 peasant militia he proposed to his superior commander a plan of actions against the Croatian troops that resulted in capture of 9,000 prisoners, together with their weapons and ammunition, including 12 guns.
On 1 November, Görgei, only 32, was named general and appointed commander of the army of the Upper Danube, being charged with protecting Hungary's western frontier against the imperial army's imminent attack. While he waited for the attack, which ultimately came on 14 December 1848, Görgei reorganized his army, sending home the national guards and the peasant militias, who were the least reliable units, and increased the number of the battalions of the Hungarian Honvéd army, training them for future battles. At that point his first debate with Kossuth took place and as a result he was forced to accept the plan of the troops’ allocation against which he argued and which proved to be wrong: holding the border with 28,000 inexperienced soldiers against Windisch-Grätz's 55,000 imperial troops was a pure idiocy even if “fighting for every inch of Hungarian territory” was a catchy political demagoguery. As a result, an isolated army of Mor Percel (one more “political commander”) was defeated by the Croatians thus leaving Görgei alone in a hopeless struggle against a vastly superior Austrian army. Görgei conducted generally successful retreat from the border to Pest and on January 2 1849 convinced the military council that there was no other choice than to retreat from the Hungarian capitals. The government went to Debrecen. Görgei chose to retreat eastward, through the northern Gömör-Szepes Oreand Tátra mountain ranges, and to conduct operations on his own initiative, forcing the Austrian commander Windisch-Grätz to send troops in pursuit as well as keep the bulk of his army around Buda and Pest, to prevent Görgei turning to the west and attacking Vienna, thus preventing the Austrians from attacking the provisional capital of Debrecen, and providing time for the Hungarian troops east of Tisza to reorganize. He also sent needed money and ore supplies from mining towns such as Körmöcbánya, Selmecbánya, and Besztercebánya to Debrecen.
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In the harsh winter, marching in the mountains, several times Görgei and his troops escaped encirclement by the Austrian troops and on 5 February 1849, they broke through the mountain pass of Branyiszkó, defeated General Deym in the Battle of Branyiszkó, and united with the Hungarian troops led by György Klapka on the Hungarian plains.

By that time Kossuth was considering Görgei too independent and to everybody’s surprise appointed as a commander in chief the Polish general Henryk Dembiński remarkable mostly by any noticeable talent and indecisiveness. True to his reputation Dembinski first ordered a retreat allowing the Austrian troops of General Franz Schlik to escape from their encirclement and On 25–27 February 1849, Dembiński, after making mistake after mistake, lost the Battle of Kápolna. He had a general advantage in the numbers but failed to concentrate them on a battlefield, the units had been acting on their own, two Hungarian divisions were forced to capitulate, the advancing troops had been ordered to retreat and after the battle Hungarian troops rebelled and Dembinski was relieved of his command [3]. Görgei was elected as commander-in-chief by the troops and government’s representative confirmed this appointment. Kossuth, by hearing about this was angered and rushed to the military camp, thinking that Görgei was its organizer and declaring that he would order Görgei executed for this revolt. But when he arrived at Tiszafüred and saw that the majority of the officers supported Görgei, Kossuth was forced to accept the situation. However, he declared that the final decision about who would be the commander would be announced after he presented the facts to the Parliament. In Debrecen, Kossuth and his political supporters ignored the wishes of the Hungarian generals to name Görgei and designated Antal Vetter as commander-in-chief [4]. This military giant started with planning a campaign for chasing Windisch-Grätz and his troops out of Hungary but then got the second thoughts and ordered the general retreat after which conveniently fall ill and left the army [5]. By that time Görgei was the only Hungarian commander who achieved the noticeable success forcing the Austrian commander to take a defensive position, and thus ceding the initiative to the Hungarians before the start of their Spring Campaign. Kossuth, running out of the nincompoop commanders, planned to led the army personally [6] but faced opposition of all corps commanders who declared that Görgei was the ablest commander for that job. Thus, Görgei became acting head only a few days before the start of the spring campaign.

The spring campaign of April - May 1849 was brilliantly executed and even if it failed to achieve a major encirclement the numerous Hungarian victories forced Austrian forces to evacuate almost all of Hungary, except for a narrow strip of land in the west, Croatia, and a few land pockets and forts including fortress of Buda. On 3 April 1849, Kossuth, who still disliked him, wrote: "He don't envy the glory of others, but offers occasions for others to achieve glory – [despite this] he enforces fully his authority; he is not power-mad and readily accepts ideas from others."

Also playing an important role in the liberation of the country were the troops of Józef Bem, who liberated Transylvania, and Mór Perczel, who liberated much of southern Hungary, except for Croatia.

Görgei achieved his successes with a numerically and technologically inferior army (47,500 Hungarian soldiers, having 198 cannons, vs 55,000 Austrian soldiers with 214 cannons and rockets), which lacked heavy cavalry (relying almost completely on the light Hussar cavalry), and having relatively very few soldiers fighting in the other types of units common in the armies of that period (chasseurs, grenadiers, lancer cavalry, dragoons, cuirassiers), and with constant shortages of weapons and ammunition. Several times these shortages caused the Hungarian infantry to not engage in long shooting duels with the Austrians, but to employ bayonet charges, which were repeated if the initial attempt to break through was unsuccessful, causing the Hungarian infantry heavy casualties.

Of course, these trifles meant little for the politicians who got excited and demanded advance into the Austrian lands. However, Görgei opted for a more cautious strategy making his immediate task capture of Buda while trying to improve the critical situation with the weapons and ammunition. The problem was an almost complete absence of the arms and munitions production in Hungary. Even creation of the percussion caps factory promised by Kossuth in 1848 did not materialize. Before the war began the purchases had been made in Czechia and Austria but now these sources were out of question. Which was leaving Istanbul. Görgei’s mission there in 1848 did no produce any results because the people he could contact proved to be unreliable. However, the fact that the Hungarians managed to survive through the winter was not missed and conclusions had been made. The government was approached by the merchants of not quite clear origin who offered a significant and consistent supply of the modern weaponry and ammunition to be delivered to Szeged or, if the Danube is under Hungarian control, to any point on the Danube, payment strictly upon delivery and inspection. Besides the unbelievably low prices, the promissory notes from the Hungarian government could cover up to 90% of a bill with the rest, as it was explained, being need to pay for the coal and, crew salaries and “administrative expenses”. The deliveries will start as soon as the Danube becomes safe to navigate after the spring flooding.

The proposal looked more than a little bit insane but the risk was zero so why not? To everybody’s pleasant surprise the first caravan arrived at Szeged at the late April escorted by 2 strange contraptions that did not look like any normal ships. After the merchandise was unloaded and checked the caravan left and two weeks later a new one, with the similar escort, brought more supplies. The merchant ships had been displaying the Ottoman flags, even if most of them clearly were not Turkish, but their escorts had St.Andrew flags of the Russian imperial navy.

While the spring campaign was going on, at the parliament in Debrecen, Kossuth formally proposed the dethronement of the Habsburg dynasty, which the parliament accepted, declaring the total independence of Hungary on 14 April 1849. The act was a pure hot air as far as Franz Joseph was involved but not everybody shared his point of view: there was an opinion, shared by some influential people here and there, that now Hungary has some promising potential. An open question was how to realize this potential in a most satisfactory way and to a big degree this depended on the mental capacities of thr Hungarian government.

The caravans kept arriving and finally, representatives of not too mysterious “supplying company” arrived to talk to the Hungarian government and a separate group with the distinctly military bearings went to talk to the commander in chief to discuss the “military issues”.

The spring campaign was over and both sides had been readying themselves for the summer or fall campaign with the Hungarians making preparations for storming Buda.



________
[1] “… [the plan] looked good on paper but the ravines had been forgotten…”. From the song written about the Russian plan for the battle of Chyornaya River (CW) and its implementation.
[2] “… the first column is marching, the second column is marching…” from the allied battle plan for Austerlitz.
[3] In OTL soon enough he was back in charge again and after being, again, dismissed just before the critical battle just screwed up his successor, Joseph Bem, by “forgetting” to tell him that he sent away the artillery supply train. Kossuth was, of course, a great patriot but….
[4] One more military genius of Kossuth’s choice. I’m wondering if he really was that dumb or just had retaining his own power as a primary goal (which would also make him dumb because the lost war would mean loss of the power).
[5] I’m not saying that he wasn’t ill but it strongly reminds “Military aphorisms”: “If both your flanks are unreliable, declare yourself sick.” 😂
[6] Even Robespierre was not delusional to such a degree.
 
Technically Russia has a lot to win from disintegration of Austrian empire so just that is price enough,

Of course “screw your neighbor” is an old and venerable principle but general public also likes to see the tangible results on a map.

but otherwise I'm interested, given that Hungary is quite conservative at the time they will probably chose to be a Monarchy, not to mention that they will prefer to be ideologically closer to Russia, so I'm interested who will be new royal candidate and is it possible for him to be from Russia?
Don’t run ahead of the schedule. 😜
 
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Mess on the Danube
233. Mess on the Danube

A Soviet tractor was peacefully ploughing a field on the northern bank of Amur River. The Chinese tank on the southern bank opened fire. The Soviet tractor returned the fire and destroyed the aggressor.”
A popular joke of the 1960s
“Our future is in the east, and we will drive Russia's power and influence into the limits beyond which it has gone only because of weakness and dispersion in our camp… Of course, it's not good to oppose old friends, but there is no other way in politics, and our natural opponent in the east is Russia”
Franz Joseph I
Ungrateful bastard”
Nicholas I [1]
”for that scion of the House of Habsburgwho excites such great hopes, for the Archduke Francis Joseph, who with his first appearance earned the love of the nation –for him there waits the inheritance of asplendid throne which derives its strength from freedom”
Lajos Kossuth, March 3, 1848
“…the house of Habsburg-Lorraine, perjured in the sight of God and man, had forfeited the Hungarian throne
Lajos Kossuth, Hungarian Declaration of Independence, April 1849

The victorious spring campaign of 1849 was over leaving Hungarian government in possession of pretty much all territories of the Kingdom of Hungary thanks to the victories of Görgei in the Central Hungary and Bem in Transylvania. However, the lessons learned were not too encouraging:
  • Both Görgei and Bem were in their style “modern” generals combining aggressiveness with a heavy reliance upon a firepower and the firepower was extremely problematic due to the shortage of the ammunition. The government, and especially the Regent-President, was good in making the fiery speeches but absolutely nothing had been done to establish some kind of a domestic military production or arrange for a steady supply of the necessities from abroad. Supplies by the Danube, which started to arrive in the late spring, had nothing to do with the government’s activities and, even if they continued, it was doubtful that they will be able to cover the needs of anything but a defensive campaign, not to mention the government’s overly ambitious plans to end the war by marching on Vienna and forcing Austrian capitulation. Even the coming siege of Buda was looking as a shoestring operation due to a complete absence of the heavy artillery in the field army. There were few heavy pieces in one of the Hungarian-held fortresses but its commander refused to send them without a personal authorization by the Regent-President who was in no hurry and, seemingly, obsessed with the fact that commander-in-chief is gaining too much popularity.
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  • Görgei and Bem had power to appoint the middle rank commanders and, with the allowance for the general shortage of the experienced cadres, these appointments tended to be good. But assignments of the high level commanders were government’s prerogative and so far the record tended to be discouraging: Regent-President used every opportunity to appoint his own loyalists even, as was the case with Dembinski whom he kept putting into the high positions, they were nothing but a disaster.
  • Then there was a general political situation within Hungary. It was a multi-ethnic state and various minorities wanted to get their rights recognized. Formally, this was done in 1849 when a minority rights law gave minorities the freedom to use their mother tongue within the local administration and courts, in schools, in community life and even within the national guard of non-Magyar councils. However, reflecting Kossuth’s adamant position regarding the “unified Hungary”, this law did not support any kind of regional administration within Hungary based on the nationality principle. Bem, for a while, managed to consolidate support in Transylvania but it was rather precarious. The “concessions” to the Croatians were laughable because by that time it had been absolutely clear that they were ready to fight tooth and nail against the Hungarian rule and, anyway, there were no Hungarian troops on their territory. With the Slovaks it was even worse: Kossuth went so far as to reject the very notion of a Slovak nation in the Kingdom of Hungary (rather funny taking into an account that his father was from the Slovak family and his uncle György Kossuth was the main supporter of Slovak national movement). In his opinion any autonomy of the ethnic groups will result in a fragmentation and break-up of Hungary. Obviously, fighting a numerically and economically superior enemy while having numerous unhappy minority groups at home was not the most intelligent idea but what were the unpleasant realities comparing to the “idea”?
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  • The government was too busy with the revolutionary or rather nationalistic phraseology to try to establish some serious international support regardless the reasonably clear indications that such a support can be obtained. Of course, it was flattering when some activist of already defeated German movements of 1848 declared Kossuth to be a combination of Danton and Carnot [2] but for all practical purposes these people were less than useless: generating all the wrong impressions among those who really mattered and were seemingly sympathetic, unless the Hungarian government will get itself associated with the extreme revolutionary elements instead of being what really was: representatives of a nationalistic liberal nobility acting against a ruler infringing on their legally confirmed rights [3], aka being not the “revolutionaries” (eek) but something like a “parliament party” acting against a tyrant (good boys). So far, the Hungarian government failed to make any serious attempts to establish the international contacts and behave as a true government.
  • The whole political arrangement in Hungary was unclear: is Regent-President an appointment for life or some identified period of time? Is Hungary still a kingdom of a some kind of a “dictatorial republic” with an unidentified constitution? In the first case, it can expect an international support but in the second, whom the foreign countries are expected to support in a long run?

The representatives of the “supplying company” came to clarify as many of these issues as possible and, based upon what they learned and what was agreed upon, a future course of actions by the potential “sponsors” was going to be determined. The resulting discussions were not easy, especially taking into an account Kosshut’s ability and eagerness to keep talking for hours without saying anything, which was not surprising taking into an account him being a professional lawyer.
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However, Bertalan Szemere, Prime Minister and Minister of the Interior (who already demonstrated that he has a much cooler head than Kossuth when he confirmed an army’s choice of Görgei after rebellion against Dembinski)
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and Count Kázmér Antal Ferenc Batthyány de Németújvár, Foreign Minister, Minister of Agriculture, Industry and Trade, proved to be more realistic in their grasp of a situation and potential future course. As the end-product it was officially confirmed and documented that Hungary is a constitutional monarchy and will remain such. The new king is going to be duly chosen by the Hungarian parliament among the ruling houses of Europe (but not the Hapsburgs) on a condition that he gives an oath to uphold the Hungarian laws and will accept a cabinet presented by the parliament. The declaration is going to be sent to the European courts together with a request to help negotiating a peace with Emperor Franz Joseph.

Hungary. Buda Castle. Fun starts

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The immediate task of the Hungarian army was to retake Buda Castle defended by a garrison of approximately 5,000 under the command of Heinrich Hentzi. Leaving a strong imperial garrison in the middle of the country would represent a major threat if the main Hungarian army wanted to move towards Vienna. Because attacks from the castle could cut the Hungarian lines of communication, it would need to be blockaded by a significant force in order to prevent such sorties and the Hungarian army already had the numbers inferior to those of the Austrian army. The fact that the only permanent bridge on the Hungarian part of the Danube (temporary pontoon bridges existed in many places), the Chain Bridge, was under the control of the imperial garrison in Buda Castle made it difficult to transport supplies to the Hungarian armies fighting in the West. Thus, the castle's real strategical importance underlined the need to take it as soon as possible. An additional danger was Josip Jelačić's corps in Croatia which could march to Buda’s relief cutting Hungary in two. Beside the military arguments in favour of the siege of Buda, there were political ones too: the Hungarian government will look more seriously internationally if it was capable to operate out of its own capital.
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The castle is laying on a Castle Hill which is 660 meters long with its height varying between 156 and 163 meters above the Danube, which is 260 meters high. The heights of the walls surrounding the castle were not uniform. They were punctuated by old circular bastions, called rondellas, and newer, polygonal bastions, close enough together to enable them to bring fire to bear on the enemy attacking the walls between them and the good news were that there were no moats because the castle was surrounded by the suburbs allowing some protection to the besiegers and that the fortifications were mostly of the 16th century style even if some segments of walls had been repaired in the early XIX century. But the imperials understood the importance of holding the Castle of Buda as long as they could, both for political and symbolic reasons as well because of having accumulated a large store of military equipment there; and they did not want to give all of these up so easily. Besides, while being old, the walls were so strong that the 12 pounder field cannons could not damage them. The defenders had at least two months worth of the food supplies and some work had been done to protect the pumping station providing castle with a water. The Chain Bridge had been mined.
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The Hungarian main body reached Buda on 4 May and gathered on the western bank of the river, surrounding the castle. Only Szekulits's division of II. Corps remained on the eastern side. The field artillery had been placed on the surrounding hills but their calibers were too small (mostly 6- and 7-pounders with some 10- and 12-pounders and few rocket stands) to do serious damage. On the offer of a honorable surrender Hentzi answered with a threat to destroy the city of Pest with a bombardment if the castle is attacked.
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On 4 May, Görgei sent Colonel György Kmety to attack the water defences between Castle Hill and the Danube, that being the only place outside the castle still occupied by the imperials; because if those could be captured, that would threaten the Austrian defenders' water supply. Kmety's order was to burn the Waterworks, which was surrounded by ramparts made of log piles. The Hungarian colonel led two battle-hardened battalions, the 10th and the 33rd, supported by two 6-pounder cannon. The attackers came under the heavy fire, suffered serious losses and had to retreat. True to his word, Hentzi ordered to start shelling Pest across the river.

At that point a caravan of the merchant ships flying the Ottoman flags came steaming up the river seemingly oblivious of the ongoing fighting. Of course, no order to stop shooting across the river was given and it was anybody’s guess if one of the ships was blown by an Austrian shot or by some other reason. The crew promptly jumped into the boat or simply swam to the closest ships, which started turning and speeding down the river to the safety. 4 strangely looking contraptions under unfamiliar flags took position between them and Buda and few shots had been fired in their direction. Some of them even hit the ships without producing any visible effect.

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The excuse was there: the Austrian artillery, unprovoked, opened fire upon the warships flying the Russian naval flag in a plain view of the thousands witnesses. The monitors turned their gun towers and started firing bombs into the waterworks and their defenders. The biggest Austrian caliber on that side were 2 18-pounders and 2 24-pounders (there were also total 7 of 60-pounder mortars but they were not very useful against the moving targets), which could do no serious harm to the monitors. 8 9-inch guns shooting bombs soon enough turned palisades of the waterworks defenses into a rubble and then the same was done to the pumping station. Some of the Austrian artillery pieces on a castle wall also had been hit because the old battlements did not provide them with any protection.

With this being done, the monitors left. Their task was completed: a fact of the Austrian attack on the Russian warships became a matter of the international record allowing all types of the following actions. Of course, it would take some time to communicate the news in all needed places but the incident was reported in the next day “Pesti Hirlap” with all juicy details so the wheels started turning and now the 19 years old boy in Vienna had to enter the grownups’ world.


While the Hungarians had been readying themselves for storming the castle and Austrians had been making their troops ready for the next campaign, the Hell started breaking loose.

The Ottomans were vocally unhappy about sinking of their merchant ship and complained to all European powers.

For the French sinking of a Turkish merchant ship could be shrugged off but now it was claimed that some of its cargo belonged to the French merchant and that, presumably, a Frenchman overseeing that merchandise had been injured. The free French press went ballistic with a full support of the government and public. Backed up by the calls for revenge, French Foreign Minister delivered to the Austrian ambassador a note demanding compensation, apology and an international conference to settle the conflict.

Upon receiving the news about unprovoked attack upon the Russian warships Emperor Nicholas ordered to increase size of the observation corps in Podolia to a full-scale army of 200,000 and to send an additional squadron to Corfu with an order to stop all Austrian shipping out of the Adriatic until further notice. This squadron on its way had been joined by the Ottoman squadron. Austrian ambassador to Russia had been called to the Russian Foreign Ministry to receive a strong-worded demand for punishing the culprits and stopping all military activities: situation was grave enough to warrant the international conference, an idea with which Prussian, French, Ottoman, and Polish governments already agreed and confirmation from the British government is also expected. The alternative will be immediate Russian invasion of the Austrian territory.

Prussian government fully supported the idea of a conference and, as a neutral party, the King of Prussia offered to host it.

The British government did not like the whole thing but, as far as the demagoguery was involved, there were no serious objections because it already gave a consent regarding the Ottoman-Russian security guarantees for the Danube and, however you put it, an unprovoked shooting at Great Power’s warships hardly was an acceptable practice for anybody: after all this part of the Danube at the moment hardly was Austrian territorial waters. The conference was a good idea: Palmerston liked the conferences and expected that he will be able to outsmart all other participants. The only question was: what will be the British goal?

The Poles already had been at war but King Joseph II graciously agreed to stop the hostilities and join the peace conference.



___________
[1] During the CW Franz Joseph mobilized the army, moved it to the Austro-Russian border and issued ultimatum demanding that Nicholas I withdraw troops from Wallachia and Moldova. Upon learning of this, Nicholas furiously turned over the portrait of Franz Josef hanging on his wall, and wrote on the back in German: "An ungrateful bastard."
[2] Engels
[3] Actually, there was a clash of two legalistic concepts: Hungary was acting within the traditional Hungarian set of rights while the Hapsburg argument was that these right had been made extinct by the Pragmatic Sanction.
 
That's quite the predicament for AH, I wonder what it will do with the Prussians. I could imagine the germanic states going to her for better protection, since if a greater power can be bullied like that, a smaller state doesn't have a chance. But it's also not certain, since some of them have royal houses that weren't know for their realism.
 
That's quite the predicament for AH, I wonder what it will do with the Prussians. I could imagine the germanic states going to her for better protection, since if a greater power can be bullied like that, a smaller state doesn't have a chance. But it's also not certain, since some of them have royal houses that weren't know for their realism.
Well, FJI put himself in a rather difficult position by trying to change the whole arrangement within Hapsburg territories using a legalistic argument that is much less sound than Hungarian one. Actually, it was so flimsy that nobody took it seriously. After all, the Hungarian proposed arrangement was along the traditional lines (their April Laws were quite legitimate) and Stadion Constitution was a clear violation of the tradition and an attempt to create an absolutist monarchy. Which will strengthen Hapsburg position within the HRE.

If he is successful, then Austria (as an unified and centralized state) is stronger and who knows what will come to his mind next. He already grabbed Lombardy so who guarantees that he does not have ambitious plans regarding his small HRE neighbors? He is young, stubborn, ambitious and seemingly boorish so who can tell what comes next into his head?

Now, speaking of bullying, who is a bully? His troops are clearly guilty in a gross international misconduct and if blowing a merchant ship could be an accident, opening fire on the warships of a Great Power is a bona fide casus belli. International conference is a courtesy graciously offered by other Great Powers in a view of his age and inexperience.

😂
 
Well, FJI put himself in a rather difficult position by trying to change the whole arrangement within Hapsburg territories using a legalistic argument that is much less sound than Hungarian one. Actually, it was so flimsy that nobody took it seriously. After all, the Hungarian proposed arrangement was along the traditional lines (their April Laws were quite legitimate) and Stadion Constitution was a clear violation of the tradition and an attempt to create an absolutist monarchy. Which will strengthen Hapsburg position within the HRE.
That definitely puts otl Hungarian revolution and subsequent Russian intervention on Austrian side into whole another perspective and in the end Franz still decided that Danubian province's were worth more than 100 year old alliance (give , or take few years).

Ungrateful bastard”
Nicholas I [1]
Quite a fitting description if we look at the scope of Russian help just during Hungarian revolution.
 
And even worse, stupid. Not exactly surprising Russia was rather more friendly with Prussia during the grand years of 1866-1871 which can be fairly described as a geopolitical disaster for Austria. One should show good judgment in when to stab in the back someone you owe a debt to.
 
FJI and outside world
234. FJI and outside world
No matter how many stubborn people I met, they were all weak-willed.”
Irina Odoevtseva, "On the banks of the Neva"
Stubbornness is a hypercompensation of weak character.”
Ilya Shevelev
A stubborn head needs an inflexible back.”
Julius Fuchik
“Stubbornness is a weakness that looks like force; it comes from a disturbance of balance in the union of will and reason.”
Vasily Zhukovsky
The fact is the most stubborn thing in the world.
M. Bulgakov, "The Master and Margarita"
The energy of a donkey manifests itself in full measure only when it refuses to move.
Nicolae Jörga
The biggest mistake is to persist in your wrongness.”
Maurice Druon, "Cursed Kings"
«Что не примет через голову, то приимет через зад»
Ю. Ким, ‘Песня учителей’ [1]​



Franz Joseph.
“The upbringing that the energetic and ambitious Sophie organised for her son was based on the same principles that Franz I had prescribed for his sons. The child was never left alone and idle—he was under the constant supervision and monitoring of teachers and mentors. The programme accentuated physical and professional rather than intellectual preparation. It was noted that Franz Joseph had many of the traits of an exemplary regimental commander: limited views, personal courage and unconditional loyalty. However, his education corresponded to the reality that awaited the future ruler—good riding skills, military preparation and proficiency in languages were more important than the ability to enjoy poetry or the beauty of history…
Despite the seemingly broad reach of the training, it was designed to cultivate a distaste of liberalism and prepare the youth for authoritarian rule in the spirit of the good old days, since at the time no one imagined the crumbling of that world order. All of this left an indelible mark on the personality of Franz Joseph…
The words that the teenage Franz Joseph heard most often from his secular and clerical mentors were probably legitimacy, duty and faith. The heir to the throne was taught the unchanging credo of the House of Habsburg: the family had been chosen by God to realise His will and they had to dedicate their lives to serving Him; they had been called to rule by following tradition, and for the benefit of their subjects they would sacrifice their lives and personal preferences to achieve the contentment and happiness of their subjects…. Alas, these inherently noble ideals did not allow subjects to have free will or the ability to decide what would make them happy…
By that time the Habsburg
[1848] family council had reached the unanimous decision that the mentally feeble Ferdinand could be an emperor with the support of his councillors in peacetime, but not in the new circumstances. The throne was to be passed on to the next generation. They ran into legal difficulties with the family’s statutes, which did not recognise the options of the emperor abdicating or an heir to the throne rescinding his rights or handing power over to the next-but-one in the succession. In fact, the pressure for change came from a small group—General Windischgrätz, Empress Maria Anna, Archduke Johann and Archduchess Sophie—and was an anti-traditionalist, even revolutionary act based on the collective consciousness of the Habsburgs rather than the family’s written laws. Since a coronation in the strict sense of the word was not possible, the change in power was simply called an accession to the throne, although there was no throne or imperial regalia at the actual event.
It was, in essence, a coup, and the Hungarians were especially keen to dispute the legitimacy of the young emperor.”
Milvi Martina Piir
[2]

My personal idle thoughts.
So what the Hapsburg Empire, and the HRE by extension, got was a 19 years old not too bright young man not burdened with the “unnecessary knowledge” but fully assured that he is chosen by God to implement His will [3]. Which probably meant that no matter what he is goin to do, it will be to the benefits of his subjects. Well, of course, there was an option that advices from the above had a purpose to destroy the Hapsburg Empire because who can tell what’s on the Deity’s mind?

Well, it is rather ironic that a dedicated traditionalist came to power by a coup breaking the laws and traditions but this was ideologically OK: the plotters probably also got the direct communications from the Heaven with the instruction to replace the imperfect tool with a perfect one. Another ironic thing was that “mentally feeble Ferdinand” managed to put things under control and retain loyalty of the Hungarians so perhaps it would be better for everybody if the empire kept to be ruled by an alleged idiot rather than by somebody who, with a dedicated effort, would qualify as a regimental commander….

Back to the story.
Based upon the information above, it should not come as a big surprise that FJI rejected what he considered to be Russian ultimatum and the same goes for the proposals regarding the conference: there was no need in the third parties intervention into the internal affairs of the Hapsburg Empire and only its Emperor was entitled to deal with the rebellious subjects. They have to be punished and after this to follow path to the happiness pointed to them by God’s chosen. As for the Russians, they are obviously bluffing and if not, as the Austrian soldiers’ song was saying, “jupaidia jupaidas God will never betray us”.

What was wrong with this seemingly impeccable logic was that Emperor Nocholas, being legitimately God Anointed, also had a high opinion about himself and his ideas and these ideas had been quite different from those of Franz Joseph. A serious advantage that he had was a strong belief into what the late Generalissimo used to say about the divine interventions: “God is on the side of the big battalions”. So he took a good care about tipping the God’s hand by concentrating 193,000 Russians with 584 cannons on Russia’s south-western border and putting in charge Fieldmarshal Paskevich, the best Russian general available after Bonaparte’s death. Additional 80,000 had been kept in a close reserve, just in case.

As for the rest of the rest of the players, to be abruptly rejected by an youngster was humiliating and warranted if not an outright war then some serious diplomatic demarche.

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The Bretagne, a fast 130-gun three-deck ship of the French Navy followed by 5 recently commissioned 90-gun ships of the Algesiras class and few frigates sailed toward the Ionic Sea to join the Russian-Ottoman cruisers squadron at Corfu.
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The joined squadron steamed North to the Adriatic setting a close blockade on Venice and Trieste. Against this force, the Austrian Navy counted three frigates of 44 to 50 guns, two corvettes of 18 and 20 guns, eight brigs of six to 16 guns, 34 gunboats with three guns each, and two steamers of two guns with the crews lacking any serious experience. This fleet prudently stood at Trieste hoping for the best.
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King Frederick William IV of Prussia did not want to go to war by a number of reasons. First of all, Prussia was just recuperating from the events of 1848 and the King was still maneuvering between liberalism and conservatism rolling back some of the liberal reforms but retaining a constitution. Then, the Prussian army after many decades of peace was not in a shape for a major war, unless it was absolutely necessary. Finally, his brother in law asked him to remain friendly neutral so that when FJI finally gets to his senses, Prussia will be able to play a mediator.

Which does not mean that FWIV did not have the political ambitions of his own. He wanted to start consolidation of the least Northern Germany around Prussia but preferably by the peaceful means and in a somewhat quiet way. In April 1849 the Frankfurt Parliament offered him a crown of Germany but he refused, saying that he would not accept a "crown from the gutter" (German: "Krone aus der Gosse"): Frankfurt Parliament did not have such an authority and the electors did not show any enthusiasm.
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So he proceeded in step by step way. On May 26, 1849, the formal alliance was concluded between Prussia, Saxony and Hanover with a declared purpose to include into it other German principalities with the exception of Austria. This was a long shot but it generated certain amount of enthusiasm because at the moment Prussia was the only German state with enough military power to help the local rulers to rollback the reforms they agreed upon in 1848. In the legalistic terms this union was undermining importance of the Imperial Diet (in which the Emperor presided) as the main instrument of the German politics.

There was some gloating in Britain in a failure of what was considered a French (or Prussian, the important part that it was not British) initiative but, taking into an account that Britain was quite marginal in the whole issue and hardly could do anything besides sending the diplomatic notes, slap on the face was ignored and the government choose “let’s wait and see” approach. Theoretically, independent Hungary could be an impediment for the British politics because the Hapsburgs were viewed as a stability factor preventing potential Russian advance in the Balkans. OTOH, the British public generally favored the Hungarians. Palmerston, as a liberal, was somewhat pro-Hungarian but as a Foreign Secretary - pro-Austrian. Anyway, there was a rather annoying situation when Britain could not find an useful idiot on the continent who would be ready to help FJI.

Ftanz Joseph had been actively preparing to a new round of the hostilities. As the first step he dismissed Windischgrätz [4] as being too timid and put in charge Lieutenant Field Marshal Julius Jacob von Haynau, who already deserved a nickname “hyena of Brescia” for the brutality he demonstrated crushing uprisings in Italy. Brutality aside, he was quite effective military leader and rather popular among his own soldiers. Some reinforcements had been brought from Italy (the French maneuvers in Provence could not last forever and Radetzky called the bluff) and other places, Galicia had been left to its own means and by the start of summer campaign Austria had on all Hungarian fronts 165,000 with 770 cannons vs. Hungarian 150,000 soldiers, 464 field and 393 defensive (castle) cannons.

Haynau was completely sure that with the forces he had he will defeat the Hungarians relatively easily, taking into an account the general superiority in training, weaponry and availability of supplies. Threat of the Russian intervention was shrugged off: FJI did not believe that a monarch will support the rebels against his fellow monarch and Haynau obediently shared this opinion.
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Not to be forgotten, on May 21 after receiving few pieces of the siege artillery the Hungarian forces started an all out assault on the castle of Buda the fighting was brutal and in the process the Croatians of the garrison killed some Italians of a garrison for their sympathy toward the Hungarians. After the Hungarian troops penetrated the walls and advanced to Saint George Square, Hentzi rushed there with two companies of border guards and another two from the Wilhelm regiment, and stood at the head of the defenders trying to repel the Hungarians. He got bullet in his belly after which the rest of the defenders in Szent György Square, under Lieutenant Kristin, surrendered. Fortunately or unfortunately, Hentzi did not die immediately and was brought to the military hospital where he eventually died after allegedly making a historical pronouncement: “Indeed, the Hungarians are a chivalrous nation”.
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Imperial colonel Alois Alnoch von Edelstadt, in charge of the water defenses, saw that the situation was hopeless. Seeing Hungarian brigade on the Pest side, and thinking that they were preparing to cross the Chain Bridge towards Buda, he tried to blow up the Chain Bridge by throwing his cigar on the fuse leading to the 4 chests of explosives put there before the siege. However, he succeeded only in blowing himself up, while the bridge suffered only minor damage.
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By 7 o'clock the whole Castle of Buda was liberated.

The Hungarian losses were between 368 and 427 dead and 692 - 700 wounded of all ranks. The imperials lost 30 officers and 680 men, of which 4 officers and 174 men died from the epidemics which broke out in the castle during the siege. 113 officers and 4,091 men surrendered and became prisoners of the Hungarians. Otherwise, they lost 248 cannon of various types, 8,221 projectiles, 931 q (quintal) of gunpowder, 5,383 q saltpetre, 894 q sulfur, 276 horses, and 55,766 cash forints.

Numerous buildings in Pest and Buda were destroyed or damaged including the Royal Palace of Buda: its central and southern wings were completely burned out and their interiors were destroyed.

When Hungarian lieutenant who Ronay recognized Hentzi in a hospital had been transporting him to the headquarters, the people recognised Hentzi and wanted to hurt him because of what he had done to Pest. Only Lieutenant Rónay's forceful intervention saved the wounded general from being lynched. From this event the legend was born of Artúr Görgei defending Hentzi's dead body from the enraged mob, which was depicted in many contemporary illustrations.
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Actually, Görgei was seriously angered by the bombarding of Pest and attempt to destroy the Chain Bridge and declared to Lieutenant-Colonel Bódog Bátori Sulcz that he would hang Hentzi the next day if he recovered, saying that the Austrian general did not deserve to be called a hero. But the legend sounds better. 😉

______________
[1] “The [knowledge] he is not accepting through the head he will absorb through his [beaten] butt” Y. Kim, ‘Teacher’s song’.
[2] And she is seemingly an apologist.
[3] Phillip II of Spain also was in the direct communications with the Almighty so this was kind of genetic.
[4] Gratitude never was one of FJI’s strong points - interests of the state (as he saw them) were the only criteria.
 
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