No GNW (or “Peter goes South”)

Summer campaign of 1849
235. Summer campaign of 1849
The government restricted by the issues of legality can’t save the country. I’m convinced that either situation changes or the nation will be forced to introduce such an executive power which will act based not upon the laws but upon the fact that the country is in danger.”
Lajos Kossuth, 4 September 1848, Speech in National Assembly
From now on our newspapers should not publish any details about the uprisings, revolts and revolutionary activities, they have to be mentioned in the vaguest manner.”
Nicholas I, 26 March 1848
I would not interfere if not my own interests, in other words, if I did not see in Bem and other crooks in Hungary the enemies of not only Austria but those who must be eradicated for our own security.”
Nicholas I, 13 April 1849, letter to Paskevich [1]
Görgei knows the war and he can be defeated only by the maneuvers, not battles.”
Paskevich to Nicholas I

Both sides had been preparing to the summer campaign and neither had all its forces concentrated on one front.

The main Austrian army of Haynau was lining along the border on both side of the Danube with its Northern part behind the March River and Southern behind the Leitha River. The Croatians of Jellacic had been concentrated in the Eastern part of Slavonia between the Danube and Serbian border besieging Petervarad and on the far Eastern end in the Southern Transylvania there were troops of Clam-Gallas.

The main army of Görgei was placed North of the Danube stretching to Lipotvar and, on Kossuth’s insistence, Bem with his troops had been left in the Southern Transylvania. Görgei was not in a very good situation on more than one account:

  • The reinforcements that Kossuth had promised did not came, because on 7 June General Perczel, the commander of the southern Hungarian army (Jelačić with 53,000 soldiers with 401 cannons against 34,000 Hungarians and 249 cannons), had suffered a heavy defeat in the Battle of Káty, from an Austro-Croatian army, reinforced with Serbian rebels, led by Josip Jelačić and as a result could not send the reinforcements because he needed them there.
  • A second problem was that many of his experienced generals, who had proved their talent in the spring campaign, were no longer available: (János Damjanich had broken his leg, Lajos Aulich was ill, and András Gáspár had resigned from the Hungarian army for political reasons being against Declaration of Independence) Görgei was forced to put in their place other officers, who were capable soldiers, but were not experienced as army corps leaders, many of them lacking the capacity to act independently when needed.
  • A third problem was that Kossuth in his infinite wisdom appointed Görgei, in addition to his post of a supreme commander, the Minister of War and he could not adequately fulfill the duties of being both supreme commander and head of the war ministry at the same time, being forced to move frequently between Pest and his general staff office near Tata.
  • The forth problem was that Bem, who was asked to come from Transylvania with 12,000 troops refused to do so because he was facing the greater force of Clam-Galas (53,000 soldiers and 133 cannons against 39,000 Hungarians, who were mainly fresh recruits, and 107 cannons).
  • The problem with the military supplies still had been there even if slightly lessened: with Jelačić controlling the Danube near Petervarad, the caravans could safely go only up the Tisza river, which meant a need to reload the shipments and then transport them by land. So far government did nothing and the same applies to the promise to mobilize the new troops.

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As a result, on the main direction Görgei with 51,000 Hungarian soldiers (including also the garrison of the fortress of Komárom) and 196 field guns had been facing Haynau with 71,000 and 336 cannons.

Situation with the Russian direct intervention still had been unclear: after FJI rejected demand for the peace conference there was a defening diplomatic silence and while small part of the assembled Russian troops remained in Bukovina the rest marched away in the unknown direction. Discussions between the arrived diplomats and Hungarian government kept going on but on seemingly critical issue of Hungary's future Kossuth was stubbornly avoiding any specifics and, not too surprisingly, his revolutionary rhetoric was not welcomed by the representatives of a rather conservative monarchy. Bertalan Szemere and Count Batthyány kept pressing him and now Görgei also joined the chorus, trying to implant into the Regent-President’s head a seemingly obvious idea that on its own Hungary is going to lose. Unfortunately, success of the spring campaign got into Kossuth’s head and he kept dreaming about march on Vienna. The time was seemingly running out when Szemete, Batthyány and Görgei finally declared that either the Russian conditions are accepted or they will immediately resign. Taking into an account Görgei’s prestige in the army, Kossuth finally gave up. The agreement defining future of the independent Hungary was signed and speedily approved by the parliament on June 10, 1849.
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Görgei was planning an active defense and the first encounter at Csorna fought on the right bank of the Danube was successful tactically but the general plan of forcing Haynau to move his troops from North to South providing the main Hungarian army with a freedom of operations and possibility of advance to Poszony thus creating threat to Vienna did not work out: Haynau started moving his troops from North to South but because he himself was planning to attack. Another part of the Hungarian plan, to form an army out of two army corps (VII corps and VIII corps, which was a garrison of Komarom) did not quite work out because commander of that army group refused to obey the orders of chief of the general staff József Bayer and kept acting on his own initiative.

In the next battle, fought at Zsigárd on 16 June 1849, while he was in the capital to participate in the meeting of the ministry council, his troops were defeated but the following battle, at Pered, fought at 20–21 June (25,000 Hungarians with 113 cannons vs. 27,000 Austrians with 119) was Hungarian tactical success [2] but it did not seriously impact Haynau’s plan to move South of the Danube and advance from there.
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However, even the best plans do not always work. This applied not only to Görgei and Haynau but to Paskevich as well. He found his initial area of concentration very disadvantageous. Not only was it requiring crossing through not too convenient par of the Carpathian Mountains at Borgo pass but it would require a long march across the whole Hungary without ability to establish a reliable supply base close to the theater of operations and a need to do numerous river crossings.

So he left a division there with the order to cross and join Bem when and if certain communication arrives and with a bulk of his army marched into Eastern Galicia with a goal to reach Dukla pass. To provide an easy supply line from Russia, one more division with the heavy artillery had been sent to Lemberg. Commandant of the citadel got an offer to capitulate and, expectedly refused. The heavy artillery was installed and within a day one of citadel’s flanking towers had been made indefensible. The message was clear and garrison capitulated.
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The direct logistical line both with Russian Empire on the East and Poland on the North was secured even if the Polish troops still had been besieging Przemysl. The siege artillery, not needed anymore at Lemberg, was moved to help the besiegers while Paskevich kept marching by a road parallel to the Hungarian-Galician administrative border, crossing the San River near Sanok and then getting by the Dukla Pass to Hungary
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From here it was an easy march to the South through the friendly area. By the time he crossed Dukla Pass Passkevich had with him 25 days worth of the supplies and along the road at least some extras had been provided by the local magistrates or simply bought.

On 26 June Görgei was again in the capital at a ministry council, and tried to convince Kossuth to concentrate all the Hungarian troops, except those from Transylvania and southern Hungary, around Komárom, the strongest fortress in Hungary. This would allow to stop Haynau and perhaps even defeat him.
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The ministry council accepted Görgei's plan, but unfortunately because of his required presence at the council, Görgei was unable to concentrate his troops against Haynau's army, freshly deployed from the northern to the southern banks of the Danube, when they attacked Győr on 28 June. Görgei arrived only at the end of the battle, when it was too late to rescue the situation for the overwhelmed Hungarian forces (17,000 Hungarians against 58,000 Austro soldiers); but he managed nevertheless to successfully cover their retreat towards Komárom, by personally leading hussar charges against the advancing enemy forces. While ha was doing so, another ministry council, held this time without Görgei, following Kossuth’s lead abandoned Görgei's plan of concentration and ordered him to abandon the fortress and move with the bulk of his troops toward the capital to get closer to the advancing Paskevich. Abandoning the strongest fortress without a fight looked as a complete lunacy but Görgei agreed to follow the government's plan, in order to avoid an open conflict with them. So, he promised to lead his troops to southern Hungary, starting 3 July, hoping that until that day all the scattered units of his army would be able to gather and join his army. But before he had the chance to accomplish this task, Görgei's troops were attacked on 2 July at Komárom by Haynau's force, which was almost twice the size of his. Görgei defeated them, upsetting Haynau's plan to quickly conquer the capitals. Unfortunately, during the battle he was heavily wounded, had a surgery and, for few days after remained unconscious. As a result, the victory was not fully exploited and Haynau retreated without being pursued.
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Before the battle, because of a misunderstanding, Kossuth removed Görgei from the command and demanded that he go to Pest, naming Lázár Mészáros, the former minister of war, who was a weak general, in his place. When Mészáros went towards Komárom to inform Görgei of the change, he heard along the way the sound of the cannonade of the battle of Komárom, and returned to Pest. [3] The cause of Kossuth's drastic act was as follows. Görgei on 30 June, wrote two letters to Kossuth. In the first he reaffirmed his decision to remain with the main Hungarian forces in Komárom and fight a decisive battle against Haynau and in the second, written after he received an order to retreat, he agreed to follow the governments new order. Görgei's two letters were sent on the same day, Kossuth did not notice their registration number, but he read the letters in the wrong order. The letter containing Görgei's removal arrived on 3 July, while Görgei was unconscious from his wound. His officers, led by György Klapka, were against the decision to remove their chief. Kossuth came to understood that Görgei had not disobeyed him, but he lacked the courage to admit his mistake and rescind Görgei's dismissal. Görgei remained the commander of the northern Danube army until he had the opportunity to hand it over,

But this time it was Kossuth’s plan that did not work out. On July 10 vanguard of Paskevich’s army reached Vac. Haynau, after recovering from defeat at Komarom, resumed his march on Buda but after learning about arrival of the Russian troops stopped to reevaluate the situation: with Komarom still in the Hungarian hands he could be easily cut off from Austria with the numeric odds being, this time heavily against him. He did not know exact number of the arriving Russian troops but the odds were going to be at least 2:1 against him. Hynau was an aggressive general but not an idiot and he ordered retreat back to Gyor.

On Adriatic.
What was passing for the Austrian fleet had been hiding in Trieste. After uprising of 1848 in Venice, which most of the crews joined (being Venetians), the new “purely Austrian” fleet lacked pretty much everything: the big ships, the steamships (except for few small paddlers) and especially experience. So it is not a big surprise that when the French-Russian-Ottoman squadron arrived, it was not a battle but just annihilation as a result of which a big part of the city also was destroyed.
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Fiume was next and did not fare much better.
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Galicia
With the arrival of heavy artillery from Lemberg and Warsaw Chlopicki finally was able to force surrender of Przemysl garrison so, with Lemberg being in the Russian hands and ready to be transferred to Poland, Galicia was finally liberated and it was just a matter of the final peace to make it formal. And the best way to guarantee that such a transfer will happen was, by the obvious geographic reasons, independence of Hungary by which Austria is going to lose the contact with Galicia. So cooperation of King Joseph II with the Russians was a completely wholehearted not only in the area of supplies but also militarily: on his own initiative he sent two of his best cavalry regiments to join Paskevich.

King Joseph II did not mind the nickname “liberator” and, of course, there were lavish celebrations. Opinion of the liberated peasants of Galicia was not solicited but the “educated classes” were happy. An issue of the release payments established by the Austrian administration as a part of the emancipation reform hanged in the air, for a while.


Hungary.
With the danger to the Hungarian capitals being averted, the main Austrian and Russian-Hungarian armies were now marching westward by the opposite banks of the Danube leaving “Observation Corps” to protect the capitals.

A joined corps of total 50,000 had been sent south to join Perczel and crush Jelačić. The most important task was to lift siege of Petervarad thus guaranteeing a secure navigation and supply by the Danube.

Kossuth had the first unpleasant surprise: Paskevich demanded that Görgei must remain Hungarian commander in chief and, while both he and Görgei agreed that combining two positions was impractical and Görgei resigned as a minister, it was declared that from now on all military operations are going to be planned by the allied commanders and their staffs and that ministry of war, and government in general, must limit their war-related activities to the issues of supply and mobilization: Field-marshal made it abundantly clear that he is not going to accept any orders from the civilians and pointed out to the signed agreement.
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And, speaking of the agreement, another “item” of that agreement, chief of the Life-Guards Imperial Militia Battalion, 21 years old, handsome and recently married, had been present in Paskevich’s staff [4]. To the consternation of the Regent-President, he easily found a common language with the Hungarian commander in chief and his subordinates. The rest of the Hungarian government did not see it as a problem. For them.



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[1] It seems that in OTL the REAL “triggering factor” for NI was an active participation of Bem and other Polish emigrants: he saw this as a potential danger to the Russian Empire in the case the Hungarian Revolution succeeds. To a certain degree this is confirmed by his orders to Paskevich. “…after destroying Bem and others of his ilk , immediately turn around and march back home..” There is no reason for entering Transylvania. This is Austrian business … When everything id screwed, it would be foolish to fix their mistakes with the Russian blood… The Austrians, not being able to win by themselves, want to do the job by Rissian hands but I don’t want this.” The “polish traitors of 1831” are listed as one of the main factors for intervention in Nicholas’ manifest of 26 April 1849 which was followed by the memorandum of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs that was pointing to the Russian “complete non-intervention” for the whole year, a danger the uprising represents to the domestic order in Russia and finally references to the “moral obligations” and other standard demagoguery. In other words, intervention had been dictated first and foremost by what NI considered Russian domestic interests and the rest was mostly a demagoguery. In other words, even in OTL he was not as big of an ideology-driven idiot as traditionally portrayed. ITTL the framework is completely different and so are the actions.
[2] In OTL Haynau won by having extra 12,000 Russian troops but before their deployment the Hungarians were reasonably successful.
[3] Kossuth, with his never failing ability to make the wrong decisions and to pick up the wrong people, was seemingly one of the greatest Austrian assets. Adding to this his talent as a public speaker combined with seemingly, absolute absence of thereof as a head of a country at war and an itch to interfere into the military matters, he looks like an earlier version of A.F.Kerensky. 😉
[4] In OTL he did participate in Hungarian Campaign.
 
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I do wonder what Konstantin [4] is doing here? Well I'll not jump to conclusions but i must admit that i wasn't expecting him as a candidate for Hungarian throne...

But I'll just have to wait and see...
 
236. Cannae on the Danube

The brain is not visible but its absence shows”
General observation
Pity was a factor but so was the interest”
Averkiev, “Frol Skabeev”
Politics is the art of making your selfish desires seem like the national interest.”
Thomas Sowell
Continuing to believe the same thing, even in the face of new evidence to the contrary, is the definition of insanity - except in politics where it's called leadership.”
Scott Adams
“It's all for naught, a madman and a liar can't by any means come to understand each other”
Avram Iancu (Transylvanian leader) on proposed meeting with FJI
If you thought that Al Bundy did that noble thing, then you did not watch closely all previous seasons” [1]
”Married with Children”​


July 1849, Main Front.
By July 1849 Haynau safely reached Gyor and took position behind the Raab river. In theory, this position was good: the Raab was protecting his front and his left flank was reliably protected by combination of the Danube (which at that area splits into the numerous streams) and the Letha river. If the enemy attempts to bypass his right flank he can follow along the Raab and then retreat to the Leitha River with his retreat being protected from the flank attacks by the Neusiedl Lake.

Anyway, this maneuver would move the enemy southward, away from Vienna with Haynau maintaining position in between and, with some luck, even forcing opponent to operate in the mounted Styria, which the Austrians knew better and which would provide the good defensive positions, for example in Murzsteg region.

To attend to all eventualities, Haynau left some troops in Pressburg (Poszony/Bratislava) with an order to retreat behind the March River and prior to that blow the bridge across the Danube if the enemy approaches in force. On the March these troops could be easily reinforced from Vienna and Haynau will act according to the situation that will be more clear by that time. If the opponents’ main force is going to attack him, he’ll try to stop them at the Raab and then at the Leitha and then at the Fischa.

The plan was good but it was missing few important factors:
  • Haynau, not being fully aware of the size of Paskevich’ army, was assuming that the enemy will be in force “here or there” but not simultaneously in more than one place. But now, with him having slightly over 60,000 in his main force and 12,000 at Pressburg on the other side of the Danube and the joined Russian-Hungarian force facing him having at least 180,000 (after Haynau’s retreat the Observation Corps marched westward) the enemy could be strong “everywhere”.
  • Haynau, with a good reason, considered the Danube to be a major obstacle for the maneuvers which, in his defensive situation was an advantage to him and handicap to the enemy. This, again, was a reasonable consideration except that the information about reinforcements coming to the Hungarian troops in Vojvodina and the news about bombardment of Fiume [2] forced Jelacic to concentrate all his troops in Slavonia thus making the route Danube-Tisza-Franzens Kanal [3] - Danube, just as the Danube itself completely secure. The military and non-military ships crowded in Belgrade and down the river were now steaming all the way up the Danube making an issue of ability to cross the Danube at any point a matter of few days.
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Technicalities: Canal’s average depth is 3 meters, which makes it unsuitable for the monitors because their draft was between 3.1 and 3.5 meters. They could keep sailing up the Danube without a fear of any guns available to Jelacic but the unarmored steamers could not and the monitors could not provide their security along the canal while the Hungarian forces kept mostly to the North of it concentrating on protection the Tisza route. For the major river crossing operations 4 monitors were inadequate but while staying with the rest of the ships they provided deterrence for the Serbs of Vojvodina: their elected patriarch, Josif Rajačić, sided with FJI being promised complete Serbian autonomy within Hapsburg monarchy, cancellation of the strict military administration in the border areas, by which any male between the ages of 16 years and 60 years of age could be conscripted into the army, and probably the free cookies to everybody. [4]
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Southern front.
In July the new Russian-Hungarian army of 50,000 was marching through the Upper Danube region toward the Drave River with the intention to invade Croatia, Percel started advancing into Vojvodina. His main task was to secure the Danube border stretch allowing its reuse as a transportation artery. Accomplishing this task would also cut the Serbs of Vojvodina from the Serbian Principality. So far Alexander Karađorđević, the Prince of Serbia, was trying to play both sides. As the Ottoman vassal he was maintaining secure navigation on the Serbian stretch of the Danube and allowed usage Belgrade and other towns on the Danube by the Ottoman and Russian merchant- and warships. He also did not permit any of his subjects to join the Serbs of Vojvodina but somehow managed to overlook the numerous volunteers, including those from his army, crossing the Danube. This was not a selfish act: before openly siding with the Hapsburgs, Serbian leaders of Vojvodina had been planning to join their territory to the Principality. Now, with this option off the table, and the Sultan issuing a strong displeasure ordering to stop any contacts with the other side or to be replaced by Mihailo Obrenović, the Prince saw the light, recalled all “volunteers” and became very attentive to all requests made by the flotilla commanders. Without outside help and supplies the Serbs of Bojvodina had been squeezed between the rivers Tisza, Temes and Maros with their political center being in Temesvar. The problem for the Serbian independence movement was demographics: while the Serbs (or at least their leaders) wanted Serbian independent state within the Hapsburg empire, the Serbs in the area were just the biggest ethnic group (49.1%) with the rest being Germans (16.9%), Hungarians (16%) and the rest being Croats, Rusyns, Slovaks, Romanians, etc. . Most of these other groups did not care for the Serbian independence, language, culture or religion and the total Serbian population being approximately 448,000 (census 1840), its mobilization capacities had been quite limited. Not to mention that, as was the case for the Kingdom of Hungary in general, the territory was practically void of the manufacturing: it was just a source of agricultural products and raw materials for Austria and Czechia. So, being cut from the Principality of Serbia meant that the Serbian separatists are going to run out of the military supplies sooner rather than later. Probably, the most reasonable thing for both sides would be to agree to a compromise but Cossuth did not want to hear about anybody’s autonomy and the Serbian leaders kept hoping on getting a better deal from the Hapsburgs. As always happens in the similar situations the ordinary civilians had suffering. So far, Percel did not have enough forces to break through the “rivers barrier” into the territory and the Serbs could not break out which, with Serbia now being “hostile neutral”, would not do them too much good, anyway.

In Banat Clam-Gallas, now facing Bem’s army strengthened by the 5th corp of general Liders [5], already was defeated at one of the places with the unpronounceable names (“Ojtoziszoros” or something like that) and had nowhere to retreat except for the Ottoman territory where he was not welcomed. The opponents had been pushing him into Southern Transylvania where he had support only in the Herman towns of Hermanstadt and Kronstadt, close to the Wallachian border. So far, Bem, by combination of the military successes and generous promises of autonomy, managed to gain control over most of the territory hoping that the government will not screw things up by denouncing his actions. As an option Clam-Gallas could try to break through to Vojvodina but this would bring Bem and Liders there, closing encirclement of the region.

Jelacic abandoned his operations in Slavonia and hastily marched westward hoping to stop enemy’s advance on the Drava River or, in the worst case scenario, on the Sava River. Situation could become untenable if the Ottomans decide to abandon their neutrality and advance from Bosnia into Croatia.

Area of the Military Frontier became a complete mess because the Hapsburg administration of its eastern part was gone and a new Hungarian administration was not established, yet, except for the military occupation by Percel’s troops.

Back to the Upper Danube.
4th corps of general Cheodaev (10th, 11th, 12th infantry divisions, 4th light cavalry division and 4th artillery division (20,000 troops) and 10,000 Hungarian troops of general Damjanich marched from Komaron to the North, crossing the Vah River and approaching the March River well to the North from Pressburg crossing it and forcing the garrison to hastily flee to Marchfeld and further to Vienna because otherwise these 12,000 would be pressed with their backs to the Danube and forced to either fight to the death or surrender. The bridge was destroyed, as ordered.
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Haynau had his main force concentrated at Gyor planning to use its 17th century fortifications, the Raab and numerous small rivers as a perfect defensive position. So far, it looked like the opponents were bent upon the headlong attack concentrating their heavy artillery, building the field fortifications and being seemingly busy preparing for the attack. Of course, as expected, they had been sending the reconnaissance parties up the Raab but so far not trying to cross it in the big numbers. Eventually, the report came about the big detachment of the Hungarian troops taking Sarvar, approximately 40 km up the river from Gyor but it was not clear if it is being followed by a bigger force. Probably not, because at the appearance of the Austrian troops they retreated beyond the river. However, the incidents like this kept repeating with a resulting need of detaching the Austrian parties to scout along the river.

While all this entertainment was going on, 70,000 of the Russian and Hungarian troops marched to the abandoned Pressburg and started crossing the Danube using the numerous ships that came all the way from Belgrade while the engineers had been constructing a pontoon bridge and setting up the ferries. The Danube at Pressburg is approximately 400 meters wide so the whole operation, while not being a piece of cake, was relatively routine. It took 5 days to get the whole army on the other side by which time the vanguard already occupied Bruck on the Leitha and Haynau’s plan ceased to be practical. Of course, nobody was seriously planning to attack the position as strong as Gyor and, upon receiving the report that the crossing at Pressburg is going on successfully, Paskevich ordered most of his troops to make overnight forced march and start crossing the Raab at Sarvar and three other places. Haynau reacted fast but not fast enough and, while his vanguard managed to escape, the bulk of his army was trapped with the Neusiedler Lake blocking retreat to the West, Paskevich being on the South and Görgei with 70,000 troops behind the Leitha blocking the North.
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Well, besides being “Hyena of Brescia” for the enemies, Hynau was for his troops “Hapsburg’s Tiger” so he tried to break through at Bruck while his rearguard was trying to hold Paskevich. The encounters were bloody but the numbers were clearly against him. The tattered remains of his army made it to Gyor to be immediately surrounded and subjected to the heavy artillery barrage from all directions. Two days later he was forced to capitulate.
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FJI run out of the armies and the road to Vienna was open. Being who he was, a strong believer in his divine mission, he still wanted to keep fighting but the only person whom he trusted, Felix Ludwig Johann Friedrich, Prince of Schwarzenberg, a recently appointed Minister-President and Foreign Minister of Autria, managed to convince him that a further resistance will result in a complete destruction of the Hapsburg Empire:

  • Prussia started mobilization of the armies of Erfurt Union and there were already voices in the HRE that the imperial crown should be given to Frederick Wilhelm and it looks like both Bavaria and Saxony are getting sympathetic to the idea.
  • The French already participated in the attacks on Austrian ports and idea that France should help Piedmont to regain Lombardy was getting increasingly popular in France.
  • Poland is in a full possession of Galicia but keeps mobilizing its troops. For what?
  • The Ottomans are hostile and can break their formal neutrality and invade Croatia and Carniola at any time.
  • Britain is seemingly sympathetic to Austria but is not going to interfere against 3 Great Powers and, anyway, can do very little besides diplomatic meddling.
  • Czechia is subdued but if the Hapsburg defeats continue this may not be for long.
Better to cut losses right now and try to negotiate in a hope to minimize them. Perhaps later there will be a chance to get the lost land back in a future. As a result, the messenger had been sent to Paskevich (obviously, not the the Hungarian rebels) with the offer to start negotiations and an armistice was arranged with 30,000 Russian and Hungarian troops standing just across the Danube from Vienna, the main army being on the Leitha and the Poles establishing a complete control over Galicia.
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Peace of Bruck.
Prince of Schwarzenberg came to Bruck as representative of the Hapsburgs and from Stuttgart as Russian minister at the ducal court and confidential adviser of the wife of the heir of the Wurttemberg’s throne, (grand) duchess Olga, Prince Alexander Gorchakov, who made his reputation both by arranging the Wurttemberg marriage and then by predicting outbreak of the revolutionary activities in Germany.
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Gorchakov had a difficult task to accomplish because he will have to negotiate both with the Austrians and Hungarians and it was an open question which task was more difficult. The Hungarian Foreign Minister, Count Batthyány, was present but he and Schwarzenberg refused to talk with each other directly and Gorchakov had been acting as an intermediary. To make things even more complicated, representative of King Joseph II of Poland also arrived to settle the Polish-Austrian part of a deal.

Now, it would be rather naive to expect that Emperor Nicholas came to all that trouble exclusively out of the goodness of his heart or because he felt himself somehow obligated to the Hungarians or for some other unselfish reason. Even sillier would be an idea that he wanted to establish a Hungarian Republic (since when the Russian monarchs had been doing something of the kind?). A traditional Russian geopolitical goal was to keep the Hapsburgs relatively weak and independent Hungary was a good way to do this. But here goes an obvious question: “independent Hungary” means what? A republic? If yes, than who can predict its affiliations within the next 24 hours? A kingdom ruled by some German prince? Already tried in Greece and Russia got very little of a reward for its efforts. What could guarantee that independent Hungary is not going to turn to Britain (because it is obvious that as soon as the job is done, Britain will try to turn it to its advantage)? The answer is obvious: Kingdom of Hungary must have the Russian king and if it is going to be a liberal constitutional monarchy, it is fine as long as it is not something like pre-Partition Poland. And Nicholas had a perfect candidate: his second son, Constantine, was already showing tendency to the things “liberal”. So he’ll help the Hungarians to get their independence and they’ll make the right choice.

So far, as it was reported, most of the Hungarian government was supportive of that idea and so were Görgei and quite a few top commanders and officers: initially, quite a few of them had been against the Declaration of Independence out of fear that it may provoke intervention of other monarchies, especially Russia, on Hapsburg’s side but now this was out of question and a proposed arrangement would benefit Hungary by providing guarantee of its security. The Grand Duke so far made a good impression and even proved to be quite useful in organizing crossing of the Danube.

Ferenc Duschek, Minister of Finance, was probably the only member of the government who was seriously thinking about the cost of the generous promises easily given by Kossuth: especially one to buy land from the landowners and to give it to the emancipated serfs for free. Then there was an issue of the war expenses, a need to restore the economy and provide some relief to the most damaged areas, etc. Where these money would come from? A silly question, as far as Regent-President was concerned : just print as many of them as needed.

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Schema proposed by the Russian Emperor provided some hope for at least some part of the war debt being forgiven and perhaps an arrangement for some foreign loans: a king from the Russian imperial family will provide independent Hungary with certain notion of stability, which the bankers like.

The main potential obstacle was Kossuth. The reasons were quite obvious:
  • His official position under a new regime was not quite clear and even if something like Chancellor is going to be introduced, he was still unwilling to give away any of his current powers. Which would make a new monarch just a puppet and this was not acceptable.
  • He was adamantly against any serious territorial concessions insisting that Hungary must retain its “historic borders”. Which, meant a need to occupy Croatia and in a future to hold it by force. As of immediately, it would mean a new bloody campaign and make peace agreement with FJI more difficult because he was reluctant to abandon his most eager supporters.
  • He was adamantly against any meaningful autonomy for the minorities beyond the language and religious rights. Taking into an account that in Hungary the Hungarians amounted to approximately 30% of the population and that it became quite clear that some of these groups were looking for more, continuation of that course will result in the never-ending conflicts and uprisings with the rebels considering Hapsburgs as a better option.
  • While his revolutionary demagoguery made him a popular figure in Britain and the US, most of the European rulers considered him rather a potential troublemaker and, if the retained position of power, this may hurt Hungary’s future international status.

As a result, the diplomatic talks kept going on until Gorchakov managed to convince Count Batthyány that in the Croatian issue Hungary must agree to the Austrian demands in exchange for a formal recognition of the Hungarian independence and resulting direct contacts between their representatives: Russia was not going to fight a war forever just over Kossuth’s whim and after all Croatia was an independent kingdom united to Hungary, just as Hungary was united to Austria so there must be the same logic for everybody. It took serious fighting in a cabinet but for the first time Kossuth found himself in a minority. The final straw was communication from the commander in chief saying that the army is exhausted, the military supplies are dangerously low and everybody favors a peace which guarantees Hungarian independence. Withdrawal of the Russian troops and military supplies at that stage would leave the Hungarian forces in a very precarious position and an overwhelming victory can easily end up being a total disaster.

Objectively, a big part of the country was seriously destroyed by the fighting and the peasants had been losing enthusiasm because fighting was impeding their ability to benefit from the land reforms and in a meantime they had to support the costly war effort. The minor nobility (Kossuth’s base) still was supportive but it also in a bad shape financially so this support was a matter of time and the time was running out.

As a result, the talks in Bruck moved from the standstill. Schwarzenberg and Batthyány agreed to met and to sign a peace treaty by which Emperor FJI renounces his claim to the Hungarian throne while Hungarian government in the name of its future king (to be officially declared) dissolves union with the Kingdom of Croatia and guarantees that recognition of this agreement will be a condition for the choice of a next King of Hungary. Treaty included the standard items about the amnesty, prisoners exchange and a right of the unhappy Hungarian subjects to emigrate to the Austrian territories. The Leithe River was established as a border.
With Poland it was relatively easy because independence of Hungary made Galicia untenable anyway.
Russia “modestly” requested indemnity covering its military expenses but agreed upon a protracted period of payment.

Internal affairs.
Now it was up to the Hungarian government to fulfill its part of a bargain and Kossuth launched desperate last ditch effort to get back on the agreed upon conditions arguing that now, with the peace concluded, most of the war-time considerations are gone and Hungary will be just fine as a republic (with him as a head). But support for this argument was almost completely lacking.

The cabinet felt that reneging on a deal is going to destroy Hungary’s international reputation beyond the repair and most probably result in the Russian retaliation.

The army was not going to fight its allies just for the questionable pleasure to be ruled by “King Lajosh”. [6] Kossuth, with his meddling and inability to provide army with what it needed, was unpopular among the troops and his feud against Görgei made it even more so and surely did not endear him to the commander in chief himself who (as many other in the military) considered a strong monarchy as the best chance for the country’s survival. The successful spring and summer campaigns greatly increased Görgei’s popularity in the army and this was a factor which was very difficult to deny or ignore: Kossuth already tried the dismissal game and was forced to back off due to army’s protests and this was before what was now referenced “Cannae on the Danube”. To try something of the kind now will result in an open revolt.

Neither was the Hungarian peasantry excessively interested in a republic as a cause worthy of keeping fighting for. The “republic” was a vague notion mostly associated with the liberal minor nobility and, being generally conservative, the peasants preferred much more familiar “kingdom” as a symbol of the law and order. Most of the Hungarian peasants got their own land in 1848 and now wanted peace and ability to work on their land without being subjected to mobilization, requisitions and other “beauties” of a war. In Transylvania the process only started in 1848 (the peasants were promised the land which they were cultivating) and so far it was a bloody (literally) mess involving the disputes between the landowners and peasants, all this being complicated by the ethnic tensions. Continued fighting could break a fragile appeasement reached with a great difficulty.

Even the liberal nobility was getting enthusiastic about “the Russian option” because so far it looked like the candidate will happily endorse the proposed liberal agenda.

So the Hungarian Parliament offered the Holy Crown of Hungary to the Grand Duke Constantine Nicholaevich and he graciously accepted it, together with a long list of conditions: for him it was like getting into the Liberal Heaven. Long live King Szilard I [7] ! 😂



___________
[1] Quoted by memory
[2] Croatian port
[3] Now Great Bačka Canal in Serbia. Completed in 1801.
[4] In OTL FJI broke his promises two weeks after it had been made and after Hungarian Revolution had been crushed the Serbs of Vojvodina remained a part of Hungary until after WWI. But Josif Rajačić was decorated Order of Leopold and Order of the Iron Crown of the first class and remained a civilian administrator of the area.
[5] In the previous post I called it “division” but it was a full corps: 14th and 15th infantry divisions, 5th light cavalry division, 3rd regiment of the Don Cossacks and 5th artillery division, total 28,676.
[6] While in OTL Kossuth became something of a revolutionary/liberal icon, he does not look like a very appealing figure to me. Putting aside his not too impressive performance as a head of the government, when everything was lost he dumped responsibility upon Gorgey appointing him a “dictator” and then spent the rest of his life blaming him for a “treason” (probably fighting to the last Hungarian was the only acceptable model of behavior). But besides that, the very fact that Marx was adamantly defending Kossuth against any criticism, however deserved, labeling all critics as “reactionaries”, does not endear him to me. And the fact that Palmerston was seemingly approving of him as well, strongly hints to a possibility that St. Lajosh was a real a—hole. 😂
[7] Wherever I looked “Szilard” is a Hungarian equivalent of “Constantine”. Probably because both contain “i” and “s”. 😂
 
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I do wonder what Konstantin [4] is doing here? Well I'll not jump to conclusions but i must admit that i wasn't expecting him as a candidate for Hungarian throne...

But I'll just have to wait and see...
In OTL Constantine was a driving liberal force during the reign of AII…. Do I need to say more?
 
Seems like Hungary could be in for quite a rough time even with a friendly Russia who can intervene to help. With so many unruly minorities who will want autonomy/independence and a bad economy with no manufacturing while also being landlocked. Independence might not end up being everything that they hoped for.
 
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Well Europe was up for some spicy time in 1848, even more so than in otl from the looks of it.

Austria lost Hungary and east Galicia but gained lands of Cisalpine republic from Pedmond- Sardinia (Pelinsular lands were lost to the French both OTL and ITTL, but otl Sardinia regained those lands after French defeat which didnt happen otl... So i assume oligarchs welcomed their King back after French left the place? Though i still have hard time realizing why would France give up its buffer state in Italy, maybe to do otl thing and have similar enlarged state without strings attached serving the same purpose).

Egypt earned its place on the map , but its still "part of the Ottoman empire".

Otherwise Septinsular Republic (Ionian Islands ) is still there under joint Russo-Ottoman vassalage. But really Hungary and Russia should had pushed for Croatia (Slavonia) if not for the sea, then for the aesthetics, Europe needs to end Austrian border gore.
 
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Seems like Hungary could be in for quite a rough time even with a friendly Russia who can intervene to help. With so many unruly minorities who will want autonomy/independence and a bad economy with no manufacturing while also being landlocked. Independence might not end up being everything that they hoped for.
Well, in OTL Hungary existed with all these problems: after 1849 FJI returned most of these minorities back to the Hungarian control and economy remained the same: most of the manufacturing was in Czechia and Austria. As for being landlocked, the Danube is still a major artery. Of course, an idea of independence as universal solution of all problems is quite idealistic and there are numerous examples to this.
 
Thanks for the map.

Well Europe was up for some spicy time in 1848, even more so than in otl from the looks of it.

Austria lost Hungary and east Galicia

All Galicia. And, BTW, I was under impression that rearrangement results in a short common border between Hungary (Slovakia) and Russia.

but gained lands of Cisalpine republic from Pedmond- Sardinia (Pelinsular lands were lost to the French both OTL and ITTL, but otl Sardinia regained those lands after French defeat which didnt happen otl... So i assume oligarchs welcomed their King back after French left the place? Though i still have hard time realizing why would France give up its buffer state in Italy, maybe to do otl thing and have similar enlarged state without strings attached serving the same purpose).

Piedmont is expected to serve as a buffer (BTW, it includes Genoa). The French public is pro-colonial expansionism as a potential source of all goodies and unnecessary involvement in Italy is not too popular at that moment: the country just passed through a revolution and is getting out of a major financial & economic crisis. When these problems are behind, Italy may get back into the agenda.
Egypt earned its place on the map , but its still "part of the Ottoman empire".
Well, yes. But France is getting increasing influence there. BTW, it returned the northern part of Syria to the Ottoman Empire retaining part between Damascus and Egypt.

Otherwise Septinsular Republic (Ionian Islands ) is still there under joint Russo-Ottoman vassalage.
Yes.
 
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All Galicia. And, BTW, I was under impression that rearrangement results in a short common border between Hungary (Slovakia) and Russia.

If Russia took east Galicia, given that whole Galicia belongs to Poland now Russia doesnt have common border with Hungary.
R.jpg
BTW parts of Galicia to the west were gained by Poland in GPW.
Why does it seem that Spain is occupying the two Sicilies.

ITTL Kingdom was never formed as unified entitiy staying divided into Naples and Sicily ruled by Spanish Burbon dynasty, (now cadet house). Im not sure about formal relationship though.
 
The history of Spain changed more than I expected, if there are already changes in Austria. Why not in Spain?
We can say that Spain is the one that should diverge the most from known history.
Do you know what happens with Portugal and Brazil? It will be possible that Brazil in this timeline ends up fracturing.
 
If Russia took east Galicia, given that whole Galicia belongs to Poland now Russia doesnt have common border with Hungary.
I was under the impression that at some point in the past we generously gave Bukovina to Russia but perhaps I was wrong. It seems that I keep forgetting the details of who got what in all these territorial reshufflings. 😢
View attachment 783655
BTW parts of Galicia to the west were gained by Poland in GPW.
I distinctly remember Cracow and the extra Polish territories outside Galicia but see above.
 
View attachment 783654
Well Europe was up for some spicy time in 1848, even more so than in otl from the looks of it.

Austria lost Hungary and east Galicia but gained lands of Cisalpine republic from Pedmond- Sardinia (Pelinsular lands were lost to the French both OTL and ITTL, but otl Sardinia regained those lands after French defeat which didnt happen otl... So i assume oligarchs welcomed their King back after French left the place? Though i still have hard time realizing why would France give up its buffer state in Italy, maybe to do otl thing and have similar enlarged state without strings attached serving the same purpose).

Egypt earned its place on the map , but its still "part of the Ottoman empire".

Otherwise Septinsular Republic (Ionian Islands ) is still there under joint Russo-Ottoman vassalage. But really Hungary and Russia should had pushed for Croatia (Slavonia) if not for the sea, then for the aesthetics, Europe needs to end Austrian border gore.
I thought Russia had a little more land on the Black Sea coast in the Caucasus region?
 
The history of Spain changed more than I expected, if there are already changes in Austria. Why not in Spain?
We can say that Spain is the one that should diverge the most from known history.
Do you know what happens with Portugal and Brazil? It will be possible that Brazil in this timeline ends up fracturing.
Spain has avoided the horrific results of the Napoleonic wars so they're definitely better off... But the Bourbon kings aren't exactly the best and with the unrest growing in many of the colonies (especially because of a successful French revolution who wasn't hijacked by Napoleon and a Haiti who wasn't wrecked by France and who gave arms and refugee for would be revolutionaries as long as they promised to abolish slavery) as well as having to deal with American settlers hungry for land in Louisiana, Spain has too much on their plate and haven't got the best people to deal with the situation, they're better overall but the problems are still there.

Also, why would Brazil fracture in any way? The people are loyal, the economy is doing decently enough (which make the local elites placated) and depending on how hard Spain decides to keep the most essential parts of it's empire, the colony might actually grow in territory. So I don't see any reason why Brazil wouldn't continue in one shape.
 
I think the confusion between you and Kriss is Kriss is referring to Krakrow, etc which the Hapsburgs considered 'West Galicia' while you are referring to 'real' 'East Galicia'.

In terms of Bukovina, it should be part of Moldovia on the map Kriss (not Poland). ATL it never came under Austrian control. Its only mention previously in the timeline is that Emperor Joseph was *not* interested in gaining it and anyway the reasons Austria got it OTL were butterflied. So access to Hungary by Russia will be through Poland or Moldovia, not really a problem, at least at this point in the timeline. If Russia is to have a physical connection that is any use, it is going to need to annex Lviv and the eastern half of East Galicia from Austria.
 
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Spain has avoided the horrific results of the Napoleonic wars so they're definitely better off... But the Bourbon kings aren't exactly the best and with the unrest growing in many of the colonies (especially because of a successful French revolution who wasn't hijacked by Napoleon and a Haiti who wasn't wrecked by France and who gave arms and refugee for would be revolutionaries as long as they promised to abolish slavery) as well as having to deal with American settlers hungry for land in Louisiana, Spain has too much on their plate and haven't got the best people to deal with the situation, they're better overall but the problems are still there.

Also, why would Brazil fracture in any way? The people are loyal, the economy is doing decently enough (which make the local elites placated) and depending on how hard Spain decides to keep the most essential parts of it's empire, the colony might actually grow in territory. So I don't see any reason why Brazil wouldn't continue in one shape.
As far as I know, there were reforms in the colonies that left aside any revolutionary feeling, if you want to get an idea in one of the previous parts they left you a link that gives you an idea of how they were. US has Louisiana but got it much later. At this point Spain only has to worry about the Carlist wars, which I feel this version can deal with more easily.
I doubt that Brazil will expand, because it would have to face La Plata which is better than Argentina.
 
As far as I know, there were reforms in the colonies that left aside any revolutionary feeling, if you want to get an idea in one of the previous parts they left you a link that gives you an idea of how they were. US has Louisiana but got it much later. At this point Spain only has to worry about the Carlist wars, which I feel this version can deal with more easily.
I doubt that Brazil will expand, because it would have to face La Plata which is better than Argentina.
That would be appreciated because I'm not remembering this at all.

Brazil won't do something like "grab Bolivia, Paraguay, Uruguay and eastern Argentina in one quick war", but something like grabbing Cisplatina/Uruguay and some bits of Paraguay? That I could see happen, especially because Portugal always had a desire to have territory on the plata river and tried grabbing the area every time it could, so that's one area they'd definitely focused on getting (especially because well into the 19th century, one third of the population of Uruguay was made up of Brazilians), not the mention the problems that La Plata/Argentina always had of centralization vs federalism that caused much trouble for whoever was ruling it.
 
I think the confusion between you and Kriss is Kriss is referring to Krakrow, etc which the Hapsburgs considered 'West Galicia' while you are referring to 'real' 'East Galicia'.

Indeed. Thanks for clarification.
In terms of Bukovina, it should be part of Moldovia on the map Kriss (not Poland). ATL it never came under Austrian control. Its only mention previously in the timeline is that Emperor Joseph was *not* interested in gaining it and anyway the reasons Austria got it OTL were butterflied. So access to Hungary by Russia will be through Poland or Moldovia, not really a problem, at least at this point in the timeline. If Russia is to have a physical connection that is any use, it is going to need to annex Lviv and the eastern half of East Galicia from Austria.
Yes, and this will mean being saddled with a population that has very little in common with the Russians and is dirt poor. To quote “the population was in a such condition that before looting them you’ll need to at least provide them with the clothes.” Acquisition which does not make sense unless, as the case with Poland, it is considered important by the historic reasons, which in the case of Russia are absent. Of course, starting from the second half of the XIX century there was an oil boom in …er… Eastern (as in “Eastern Eastern” 😉) Galicia in Borislav, approximately 100 km to south-west from Lemberg which, for a while made AH the world’s third oil producer. But this started few years later and Russia already has Baku so I’m not planning any additional border changes. In OTL the Lviv General Hospital in 1853 (IIRC) became the first public building to utilize oil burning lamps after which the rest of the world picked up the idea and why not the same in ITTL?

As for the rest, it is quite easy to arrange communications through the friendly countries and for the big volume trade the Danube is much more productive, even if a much longer route. And Hungary, Ottomans and Russia, all getting some benefits in the process so there should be no problems.

This, of course, unless all countries involved are engaged in a construction of an international railroad (or railroads), etc. but this seems to be a little bit too early for the projects like that. OTOH, in OTL the railroad Warsaw-Vienna became operational in 1845 so perhaps this is not too fantastic.
 
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I thought Russia had a little more land on the Black Sea coast in the Caucasus region?


Not to a degree easily noticeable on the small map: it went a little but to the south from Taman peninsula but the main border is still by the Kuban River.

There was a port of Anapa on the last map after the Russian intervention in Greek rebellion, i just forgot to add it on this map, but its fixed now. I allso returned Bucovina to Moldova.

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Otherwise regarding southern Italy (Two Sicilies), they are two independent seperate Kingdoms (Naples and Sicily) in personal union under cadet branch of house Bourbon and in no personal union with Spain .
 
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