No GNW (or “Peter goes South”)

Personally i don't really see the need for that , Dzungar Khanate is more than enough reward, i like this because of balanced and limited Russian goals that can stay within limits of realism.

The problem is that its unlikely that Qing is going to take this readjustment quietly. They still have their imperial ambitions and even negotiations that led to the Kjahta Treaty was, to a great degree reflection of these ambitions not backed by anything of a substance. Basically, if Russia wants to grab the territory on the left bank of Amur, Qing has close to nothing to prevent such an action: they don’t have settlers on these lands and their military presence along the right bank is quite limited. They can eventually bring some troops from Khalka and Manchuria but quality of these troops is low and the same goes for the realistic numbers which can be brought into the region, especially if Qing is simultaneously trying to deal with the Dzungars backed up by the Russians.

From the Russian perspective, the Qing bluffed them at Nerchinsk by a show of force and tried to do the same at Kjahta but had been countered by the Russian military presence. So it is only logical for the Russians to use the same approach while dealing with the Qing, especially when there is no way for them to counter the Russian expansion along the Amur and a region of the lower Amur is not officially chartered. In OTL, admittedly a century later, the Russians started building forts in the mouth of Amur prior to the Aigun Treaty not facing any resistance because the Chinese simply were nit there. However, this is not a goal: the goal is to secure Dzungaria and the rest may or may not happen if Qing decides to go to war.



No need for Russia to overextend itself, or for Qing to fail on its own, they'll be humbled in due time anyway, it doesn't need to be in this TL. Unnecessary butterflies in China on other hand can as well butterfly this away though.
Well, border by the Amur is safer for Russia than one of Nerchinsk and Chinese presence on its left bank is minimal so this is not really an overextension and impact upon China is minimal. OTOH, for Russia this may be a significant POD. However, if there is no war, this does not worth a trouble.


For now new status quo is enough and Russia should focus on bringing rest of Kazakh lands in the line. We control little Kazakhs and Dzungar Khanate, but think about the empty space in between (middle Zhus and Senior Zhus)! The horror!!!
As I said, the problem will be with the Qing if they react violently on Russian-Dzungar settlement . IMO, such a reaction is most likely but my knowledge of the area is quite limited so I’m quite open to the arguments to the contrary. An earlier Aigun Treaty can happen only if there is such a reaction followed by the war and the Russian wish to have a better border. If Qing digests situation peacefully, then there is no war, Kjahta Treaty stays and so does Nerchinsk.

So, what’s your opinion regarding a peaceful scenario? War or peace are in your hands. 😜
 
Are there other landgrabs (e.g. from the British, or Germans, Portuguese etc) we can determine any supporting arguments on? And what reason does Russia have for war here? Those fortresses aren't cheap. Is there truly gold etc to get there?
 
As I said, the problem will be with the Qing if they react violently on Russian-Dzungar settlement . IMO, such a reaction is most likely but my knowledge of the area is quite limited so I’m quite open to the arguments to the contrary. An earlier Aigun Treaty can happen only if there is such a reaction followed by the war and the Russian wish to have a better border. If Qing digests situation peacefully, then there is no war, Kjahta Treaty stays and so does Nerchinsk.

So, what’s your opinion regarding a peaceful scenario? War or peace are in your hands. 😜

Hard to say, but next emperor in line is rumored to have tempered with his father's testament to gain power and was later busy with centralization of power, reforms and taxing the elites.

Regarding forgein policy, well Yongzheng Emperor signed treaty of Kyakhta with Russia to reach diplomatic understanding with them making territorial concessions and trade in exchange for a free hand in Mongolia (there was Rebellion in upper Mongolia in 1723 under Prince Lusban Danzan) .

Then there were Miao chieftains to the south, civil war in Tibet around 1727 and it's important to say that after otl wars treasury was pretty much drained that emperor considered making peace with Dzungars.

So given that hold over outer Mongolia was tentative at best and the fact that rebellion will happen a year into new emperor's reign i would say that they wouldn't want to start a war. Russia could even use it's strengthened position to renegotiate the border treaty once again.
 
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Hard to say, but next emperor in line is rumored to have tempered with his father's testament to gain power and was later busy with centralization of power, reforms and taxing the elites.

Regarding forgein policy, well Yongzheng Emperor signed treaty of Kyakhta with Russia to reach diplomatic understanding with them making territorial concessions and trade in exchange for a free hand in Mongolia (there was Rebellion in upper Mongolia in 1723 under Prince Lusban Danzan) .

Well, not real concessions, just moderation of the claims not supported by any de facto presence or anything substantial.
Then there were Miao chieftains to the south, civil war in Tibet around 1727 and it's important to say that after otl wars treasury was pretty much drained that emperor considered making peace with Dzungars.

So given that hold over outer Mongolia was tentative at best and the fact that rebellion will happen a year into new emperor's reign i would say that they wouldn't want to start a war. Russia could even use it's strengthened position to renegotiate the border treaty once again.
This sounds reasonable: personally, I’m not very fond of the wars, especially if the same results could be achieved by the talks. 😉
 
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Are there other landgrabs (e.g. from the British, or Germans, Portuguese etc) we can determine any supporting arguments on?
Well, at least for the Brits there was some ideological justification along the lines: “we must prevent these uncivilized barbarians from not allowing us to poison them with our opium”, “nobody should prevent a peaceful trading company from conquering as much territory as it needs”, “it is our mission to civilize the barbarians”.
Not sure if the rest had any excuse for their land grabs, which probably makes them just the greedy bandits. Unless, of course, the Brits were approving of some specific grab, which made it a civilizing mission.
😜

And what reason does Russia have for war here?
No reason whatsoever. It was about the willingness of Qing to swallow peacefully the Russian absorption of Dzungaria. If they do, then there is no war and agreed upon borders and treaties do not change. If they don’t and there is a war, then a lot of things may change.

However, at this specific time the only reason for Russia to look for the border by the Amur is that it is simplifying supply of its settlements on the Pacific coast.

Those fortresses aren't cheap. Is there truly gold etc to get there?
Actually, most of them were quite cheap and built fast by the relatively small military expeditions and had been much closer to the US frontier forts than to Vauban’s fortresses.
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Most of them were earthworks (with the bastion profile) with a stockade on a top. Only very few of them ended up with the stone fortifications like Tobolsk (which was at that time a capital of Siberia).
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Calculated risk?
80. Calculated risk?

“…If he is wise, he accepts calculated risks but not reckless ones…”
regarding Operation Market Garden

The less you think, the more like-minded people you have
Author unknown

May I answer without thinking?”
Student on exam

Peter’s willingness to accept the Dzungar offer was a mixture of a knee-jerk reaction and the valid considerations.

On a valid side was a peaceful acquisition (not immediate annexation but this was a matter of time) of the huge territories and, if the things go as expected, strengthening Russian position vs. China by adding the Dzungar military resources to those Russia had in the region. Plus, an ability to build the forts and settlements on the Dzungar territory could seriously improve security of the Russian possessions in Siberia, which so far had been regularly suffering from the Dzungar raids.

Of course, the “knee-jerk” part involved a rather optimistic view regarding ability to handle the Dzungars and preventing their current and future rulers from causing problems with China and from rebelling against their new master. After all, Dzungar Khanate could raise up to 80,000 of a good quality troops, which was not a trifle.

Accepting the Dzungar application was also a risky move because neither Peter nor anybody in his government could predict the Qing reaction with any degree of a certainty. Not that a war with Qing looked as much more than a big-scale border conflict but such a conflict could be dragged on for a long time consuming resources beyond its true value and potentially diminishing the Russian ability to react to other conflicts like the ongoing Ottoman-Persian mess (so far Russia managed to remain neutral but, if getting too successful, the Ottomans may be emboldened to renounce the Treaty of Küçük Kaynarca. Then, the Favorite Pet was getting old and, while there was no obvious Hapsburg or French challenge to the candidacy of his son backed by Russia and Sweden, a serious Russian engagement far in Asia may result in some creative ideas (of course, it was extremely unlikely that Austria and France are going to present an unified front on that issue but the European politics was quite convoluted).

Discussion between Prince Dolgoruky (Foreign Affairs Collegium ) and Prince Golitsyn (Military Collegium) resulted in a “dual strategy” presented to Peter:
  • The military aspect: To move more troops and supples to the East (including Dzungar territory), accelerate fortification of the Dzungar-Qing border (chain of the forts garrisoned by the Russian regulars and the Cossacks) and keep a close watch over Tsevang Rabatan’s activities preventing him from attacking the Qing without an order. Train and arm some Dzungar infantry troops keeping them under control of the Russian officers and stimulating their loyalty to the new commanders by nice treatment and regularly paid salary. Taking into an account the huge logistical problems required for a major Qing mobilization and a low quality of the banner troops available in the region (both Manchu and Khalka Mongols), immediate presence of the 30-40,000 Russian regular troops with the addition of the irregulars and the Dzungar troops looked as a deterrent serious enough to prevent the Qing from a knee-jerk reaction.​
  • The diplomatic aspect: Let the Qing know (though still functioning border commission) that Russia is going to prevent the Dzungars from trying to retake Tibet (providing the Qing is going to guarantee a freedom of pilgrimage). Find the members of Dzungar aristocracy willing to cooperate with the new masters and court them in usual way (as was done with the Kalmyks, Kazakhs, etc.). Pay special attention to Galdan Tseren, the eldest son of Tsewang Rabtan: invite him to visit Moscow (an offer which Tsewang Rabtan hardly can refuse) and organize a very nice reception. Basically, the usual program which worked fine with everybody else. Keeping in mind that the base of the Dzungar wealth laid in the profits gained from their control of the trade route between Russia and China, the well known Tea Road, keep pressing the point that they are getting more benefits from the peace than from war.​
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Somewhat to everybody’s surprise (😉) this schema proved to be successful. To a great degree this was because Emperor Yongzheng, with all his traditional imperial posturing, had quite a few problems of his own.
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To start with, there was a widely circulated rumor that Yinzhen was crowned emperor after he modified Kangxi Emperor's final will that detailed who will succeed him. Immediately after succeeding to the throne, the Yongzheng Emperor chose his new governing council. It consisted of the eighth prince Yinsi, 13th prince Yinxiang, Zhang Tingyu, Ma Qi, and Longkodo. The earlier players in the battle for succession, Yinzhi, the eldest, and Yinreng, the former crown prince, continued to live under house arrest. Yinreng died two years after the Yongzheng Emperor's reign began. While bestowing upon Yinsi the highest ranks, Yongzheng held him under close watch and kept him busy with affairs of state, reducing the chance of him conducting behind-the-scenes political maneuvers. Yinsi's allies received notably different treatment. Yintang was sent to Qinghai under the pretext of military service, but in reality was watched over by the Yongzheng Emperor's trusted protégé, Nian Gengyao. Yin'e, the tenth prince, was told to leave the capital to send off a departing Mongol prince, but since he refused to complete this trip as the emperor commanded, the Yongzheng Emperor stripped him of all his titles in May 1724 and sent him north to Shunyi to languish in solitude. His own brother, Yinti, was removed from his military appointment, recalled to the capital and placed under the house arrest. The emperor also confiscated the assets of Yintang and Yin'e. [1] Soon enough he got rid of his main military supporter, Nian Gengyao, who started getting excessively high opinion regarding himself (he will be forced to commit suicide in 1726) and was on his way of doing the same to the second one, Longkodo, the commander of the militias stationed at the capital at the time of the Yongzheng Emperor's succession (he will fell in disgrace in 1728 and die while under house arrest).

But, besides all that political entertainment, there was the usual problem with the money. In 1721 the treasury income was 32,622,421 taels out of which the total military budget came up to about 10 million taels a year [2]. Taking into an account that any serious military campaign would cost few millions taels and that the Russian involvement could result in a prolonged costly conflict, a resulting financial burden could seriously impact the Emperor’s ability to conduct the reforms he had been planning. And, all the traditional posturing aside, the information brought by the earlier embassy to Russia and by the participants of Kjakhta Commission regarding the Russian troops was not encouraging if compared to the equipment and condition of the banner troops available in Mongolia and Manchuria.

So the last thing he wanted at that point was an expensive war with an unclear outcome and the Russian proposal regarding peaceful resolution of the Tibet issue looked as a money-saving bonus.

As a result, both sides treated the Russian-Dzungarian pact as an issue unrelated to the Kjakhta Treaty and commission continued its work upon marking the border [3]. In the early January of 1725 Russian military and diplomatic mission was sent to Tsewang Rabtan’s court to discuss details of the forts construction, garrisons supply, security of the Tea Road and to distribute the generous gifts and even more generous promises.


But while this mission was on its way a courier caught up with it delivering the latest news from the capital….
____________
[1] Personally, I already lost track of all these royal personages. It seems to me that he was steadily getting rid of a potential opposition within his family but the process was taking a while.
[2] Compare this to the OTL Russian expenses during the GNW: at the peak they were above 80% and afterwards dropped to something like 60-65%. Actually, the 10M apply to 1730 when income was over 60,000,000. Taking into an account that even these expenses had been depleting the Qing treasury, I wonder what he was spending the rest of his money upon. The OTL Tibet campaign of 1728 cost 8M but still this does not look as being anywhere close. Perhaps the Brits were right considering Chinese “uncivilized barbarians” because the “civilized” governments rarely were concerned about the cost of their military adventures. 😂
[3] Part of these negotiation was settlement of the Russian-Khalka border.
 
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The Emperor is dead
81. The Emperor is dead

“The art of government comes down to the ability to gild the pill”
Adolphe Thiers
“…how to turn a loss-making enterprise into a profitable one without changing anything in it”
Saltykov-Schedrin



According to the official version, the reason for Peter’s death was a pneumonia. The alternative versions included Cystitis, Pyelonephritis, Prostate cancer, Chronic gonorrhea and even poison.

Many foreign doctors consider false stone disease to be the cause of his death, which followed January 28, 1725. The section done after his death resolved all doubts, because they could not find stones. Other authors equally unfairly attributed the disease to its consequence of the syphilitic phase. Most foreigners believe that the main cause of chyrs near the bladder. The most ridiculous thing, however, is the opinion of those who believe that the cause of Peter the Great's last disease is poison given to him during his youth.” [1]


Chronicle of Peter’s death [:
On January 16, Peter began to feel dying torment. He screamed from the pain.

On the 22nd, he confessed and communed. All the … doctors gathered at the sovereign's. They were silent; but everyone saw Peter's desperate state. He no longer had the strength to scream and only moaned, smearing urine.

On the 26th evening, he got worse. He was anointed.

On the 27th, those present began to say goodbye to him. He greeted everyone with a quiet look. Then he said with effort: "after..." Everyone went out, obeying his will for the last time. He didn't say anything anymore. He suffered for 15 hours, moaned, constantly pulling his right hand, his left hand was already paralyzed. Peter stopped moaning, his breath stopped - at 6 a.m. on January 28, Peter died.

On February 2, the sovereign's corpse was opened and embalmed. They took off his plaster mask.


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Immediately, a year-long mourning had been declared during which ladies were supposed to wear mourning dresses, and gentlemen were supposed to wear mourning bandages on their sleeves. Before the burial, everyone was ordered to dress in black clothes, and the highest dignitaries (up to lieutenant general) were ordered to cover two rooms in their homes in black.

According to the old Moscow tradition, the burial was scheduled for the 40th day (early March 1725). Meanwhile, a "Sad Commission" headed by Jacob Bruce was created to organize the funeral. Bruce and his assistants did everything to turn the king's funeral from a purely church rite into a state event. In this regard, much was borrowed in the West, and the immediate model for them was the funeral ceremony of Franz Lefort, developed by the Tsar himself in 1699. On January 30, his body (pre-opened and embalmed) was exhibited for farewell in the "Marer Palace Hall". On February 13, it was moved to the "Sad Hall" prepared during these days, where it was located until the burial.
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The design of the "Sad Hall" corresponded to the emperor's favorite military-imperial style. The best artists and architects worked on it. In addition to the usual decorations (figures, coats of arms, symbols), pyramids with inscriptions were placed in the hall. The walls of the hall were originally upholstered with trellis depicting "Wonders of Christ", but Alexey, looking at them, ordered Bruce and Bock to upholster them with just black cloth.

In the center of the hall, an elevation was made, covered with carmazine velvet and gold carpets ("amvon"). It was placed with a golden brocadebed under a rich canopy. The modern engraving shows that Peter is lying in his guards uniform. There are crowns in the headboard on the pillows. There is a guard of honor along the walls. Simultaneously with the farewell, preparations for the funeral were taking place. Copies of the printed "Body transfer ceremony" were sent to all guests. A day or two before the funeral, heralds in the main city squares announced the day and hour of the beginning of the mourning procession.

On March 10, 1725, the transfer of the body of Peter to the Cathedral of Archangel [3] began. The signal for the beginning of the ceremony was a shot from a cannon. The procession was divided into 14 departments, each headed by a master of the ceremony and a marshal. The procession was opened and closed by the detachments of the Mounted Guard. More than 10,000 people participated in the procession, including 200 clergymen. In front of the chariot with a coffin were carried the coats of arms of the largest cities and the Emperor’s awards, there were singers, senior clergy and officials followed by the ambassadors from Baltic Alliance (as family representatives).
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The mourning chariot was drawn by 8 horses in black blankets. There were 60 guards scorers with lit candles on the sides of it. Above the coffin, 10 staff officers carried a rich canopy on cast silver poles with coats of arms. His cover was held by two colonels.

The royal regalia were carried after the chariot. They were followed by a new Emperor, the Empress, the Widowed Empress and other senior officials (all in black). Peter was buried with a gold crown on his head in a sealed coffin. Following the tradition, the coffin was placed under a slab of stone.


New reign starts
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The day after the death of the Emperor, members of the royal family, the generals, the Senate and the Synod and the Guards swore allegiance to the new monarch. Coronation, by tradition, happened only after the mourning period was over, on February 24 1726.

The coronation of Alexey II was the first imperial coronation in the history of Russia according to the "established rank". Former Russian rulers had been crowned by an old “Byzantine-style” rite and Peter did not use any additional rite when he was declared an emperor. For the new rite of coronation of Alexey II was based on the old rite, but taking into account the experience of European countries - France, Sweden, the Holy Roman Empire, Denmark. For the first time, the state banner, sword, seal and diamond chain of the Order of St. Andrew the First-Called were added to the traditional imperial regalia - an erine mantle of gold brocade with embroidered eagles, the globe, scepter and diamond crown [4]. The rite was complicated by the introduction of Psalm 100 into it, which was performed at the emperor's entrance to the cathedral. The Coronation was carried out by Novgorod Archbishop Feofan Prokopovich.

The manifesto issued on the occasion of the celebration announced the relief of the tax burden and the easing of punishments for convicts, 37 people were promoted, the people received treats, and "fireworks were burned in the Tsaritsyn meadow."

But this was later and a business of governing could not wait for the whole year. Fortunately, Alexey was already pretty much in charge of the routine affairs for the last few years so the transition was expected to be smooth and it was.

Of course, situation involved visits of the foreign ambassadors with the mandatory expression of the condolences both on the official and, in the cases of Sweden, Denmark and Mecklenburg, family level as well: after all, Peter was “everybody’s uncle” and as such something of a patriarch of the Baltic Mafia family. All of them had been assured that nothing changes and that the new Emperor is going to follow policies of a dead one and that the family relations remain very important to him.

With the “outsiders” (Britain, HRE, France) “nothing new” attitude had been maintained: Russia is intended to be friendly with everybody while not committing itself to any new alliances.

Russian resident in the Ottoman Empire, Ivan Nepluev, was promoted to the rank of Ambassador Plenipotentiary to underscore importance of the good relations and simplify the future diplomatic talks, which were more than once handicapped by the limited powers of his low diplomatic rank. The Ottomans had to be assured that the existing agreements regarding their “interests” in Persia are going to be respected.
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The only “link” that had to be strengthened was Prussia and an issue of a potential royal marriage (after the mourning period will be over) had been brought to the Prussian ambassador: after all Alexey’s children, Peter and Natalia, were of the same ages (give or take an year) as Friederike Sophie Wilhelmine of Prussia and her younger brother Frederick and by 1726 all of them would be of a marriageable age. Marriage to the Russian imperial family surely would be a bonus for Prussia on more than one account.

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On the less noticeable scale there were two more actions, both seemingly unimportant:
  • Alexey’s mother, Eudoxia, was immediately recalled to Moscow. She returned to the former capital with a great pomp and was allowed to keep her own court at the Novodevichy Convent [5] until her death in 1731. This did not undermine position of the Widowed Empress Maria, with whom Alexey and his wife maintained the good relations, and while noticeably improving the living conditions of Eudoxia and providing her with a certain degree of prestige, kept her far away from being of any influence. The convent’s location on the outskirts of Moscow allowed for easy visits and maintenance of at least appearances of a happy family.
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  • Menshikov was allowed to return to the capital and even made a member if the Senate. As a political figure he was not a danger anymore but he, undeniably, had a vast experience, which can be useful.
As far as Alexey was concerned, the Senate was steadily going to evolve from its initial governing position into a place for a “honorable retirement”. As a governing body it proved to be absolutely inadequate due to its slowness and somewhat ambiguous position between a monarch and the Collegiums, especially taking into an account that the foreign and military affairs already had been exempt from its jurisdiction. In Alexey’s opinion, the Senate, as some kind of a collective government, made certain sense with an absentee Emperor who spent a big part of his reign being out of the capita. Other than that, it was clearly incapable of providing a normally functioning administration being just a very inefficient buffer between a monarch and the Collegiums AND also spending enormous amount of time on dealing with the individual’s complaints and applications. So, it would be reasonable to have some kind of a cabinet of the ministers composed of the heads of the Collegiums (with some additions, if necessary) and to make Senate something of a supreme judicial body responsible for checking compliance of the imperial degrees with the existing laws, reviewing individual complaints (after they passed through the courts), etc. The transfer to a new form of the government had to be done quietly to avoid an impression of a drastic change of the government’s course.

Another change was abolishment of a collective responsibility. When created by Peter, the Collegiums had to make their decisions by the unanimous vote of their members (the top level, of course). In theory, this should led to the well-considered decisions but in practice it proved to be a good way to avoid the individual responsibility (it was unlikely that the whole top level is going to be punished) and led to a very slow decision-making process. Following the letter of the decree, President of a Collegium was just a figurehead putting his signature on the top of others but hardly individually responsible for anything. De facto, the practice already changed in the Foreign Affairs and Military Collegiums but the rest, with the Senate’s support, happily held to the consensus system. After all, by definition, “collegium” is a group in which each member has approximately equal power and authority. 😉


Changing the attitudes within the existing system looked as a massive waste of time (Alexey already tried this during his father’s reign with a very little success) so the simplest and cheapest solution was to change the name from “Collegium” to “Ministry” and position of a President to one of a Minister. Change of a name cost very little but a traditional excuse for doing nothing had been gone. A direct subordination of the ministers to the Emperor made a traditional modus operandi even less sustainable.

Mission to the Dzungars was informed about the change of a ruler and ordered to proceed with its task, stressing invitation to Galdan Tseren.

Kjakhta Commission was informed with the order to pass information to the Qing court with the usual assurances of friendship and willingness to continue the border-charting process. Governor of the Eastern Siberia was ordered to keep his troops ready to any eventuality.



_____________

[1] Court physician and professor of the School of Medicine of Moscow University Wilhelm Richter, "History of Medicine in Russia"1, 1814
[2] Based upon Pushkin’s “History of Peter the Great”
[3] A traditional burial place of the Russian monarchs.
[4] Actually, the diamond imperial crown was an innovation: traditionally, the Russian monarchs had been crowned by “Monomakh’s Cap” or its modifications.
[5] The most prestigious place for the high-ranking widows with the very relaxed regulations.
 
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The only “link” that had to be strengthened was Prussia and an issue of a potential royal marriage (after the mourning period will be over) had been brought to the Prussian ambassador: after all Alexey’s children, Peter and Natalia, were of the same ages (give or take an year) as Friederike Sophie Wilhelmine of Prussia and her younger brother Frederick and by 1726 all of them would be of a marriageable age. Marriage to the Russian imperial family surely would be a bonus for Prussia on more than one account.
Now what remains to be done is strongarming Synod into double marriage of siblings thing, as this never was done before and as of OTL 1725 was still illegal under "husband is equal to wife as far as marriage issues go" ("муж жене в брачных делах равен") as in-laws were considered the same as blood relations.
The simplest loophole would be having two marriages on the same date, so that neither party is sister/brother-in-law to each other as they go to altar.

Fredericke Sophie Wilhelmine of Prussia to Peter I can see going seamlessly, re. Frederick - his father was interested in Russian alliance IOTL, but would he be interested in DOUBLE alliance TTL?
 
Or alternatively the Favorite Pet can offer his niece Eleonore Elisabeth Auguste of Hohenzollern-Hechingen (b. 1705) as the wife for Peter. Yes, she's older, but after the Danish king marriage precedent there is nothing to object from Russian side, the girl would be from poor court but with good connections/dowry, and makes sure that Russia remains committed to keeping Wettins in PLC.
Marriage to older lady also makes sence as Peter is the last living male Romanov other than his father (and Empress Helena is already nearing menopause) - Empress Maria had no sons, and Peter has no male siblings. See also OTL Louis XV marriage for the precedent. With Empress Elisaveta Feodorovna Peter can have kids ASAP.
 
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In fact, Eleonore of Hohenzollern-Hechingen to Peter and Natalia to Frederick II is optimal arrangement IMO - not too many eggs in any single backet, and neither are any new alliances.
 
Or alternatively the Favorite Pet can offer his niece Eleonore Elisabeth Auguste of Hohenzollern-Hechingen (b. 1705) as the wife for Peter. Yes, she's older, but after the Danish king marriage precedent there is nothing to object from Russian side, the girl would be from poor court but with good connections/dowry, and makes sure that Russia remains committed to keeping Wettins in PLC.
Marriage to older lady also makes sence as Peter is the last living male Romanov other than his father (and Empress Helena is already nearing menopause) - Empress Maria had no sons, and Peter has no male siblings. See also OTL Louis XV marriage for the precedent. With Empress Elisaveta Feodorovna Peter can have kids ASAP.

Problem is that Russia doesn't want such entanglement with Augustus, they could have had even more prestigious marriage i proposed to Augustus son but it was refused on the same ground and while Danish King did set a precedent thing is that Denmark was in quite different situation than Russia is. Heir appears to be healthy and they can wait.

Personally Wilhelmine of Prussia married to Peter is a go, they are of similar age and that means that baby making process can start soon. Regarding Federick II, i can him marrying future Swedish Princess being more advantageous to Federick I and it plays well into ties with Blastic Mafia without to big of reliance on Russia as I agree that double marriage is a little to much.

Now that leaves good ol Natalia without a match though, i wanted French King but it proved to be not so advantageous.

Personally if there isn't some prominent marriage to be had i believe Natalia will marry within Russia as Russian princesses didn't tend to marry outside without big reason.
 
Personally if there isn't some prominent marriage to be had i believe Natalia will marry within Russia as Russian princesses didn't tend to marry outside without big reason.
After Ivan III it was "foreign match or no match at all". Ivan III was the last reign when the marriage to mediatized prince (ancestor of Golytsin family in female line) happened.
Denmark was in quite different situation than Russia is. Heir appears to be healthy and they can wait.
Cesarevich Peter is the last male member of his family other than His Majesty Alexis II, while Oldenburgs had cadet lines.
This prince, for example, was still alive when match to Praskovia was greenlit. And is still alive if unmarried at the current moment of TL.
 
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Russia doesn't want such entanglement with Augustus,
Entanglement would be direct marriage to a Wettin, not to a niece of Augustus' estranged wife, which can serve as a token of commitment (lipservice with no major obligations). The only downside is that it would be marrying a daughter of Count to a prince whose mother was of proper Royal birth, but there is few alternatives (Charlotte Amalie of Denmark is heavily scouted by French, as in changed political circumstances of Baltic mafia she's in top list of candidates (France needs an older Queen for Louis XV); Wilhelmine is of the same age).
And given the decimation the smallpox created in French and Austrian courts, for example, a slightly older Cesarevna would be seen as sensible move.
 
Entanglement would be direct marriage to a Wettin, not to a niece of Augustus' estranged wife, which can serve as a token of commitment (lipservice with no major obligations). The only downside is that it would be marrying a daughter of Count to a prince whose mother was of proper Royal birth, but there is few alternatives (Charlotte Amalie of Denmark is heavily scouted by French, as in changed political circumstances of Baltic mafia she's in top list of candidates (France needs an older Queen for Louis XV); Wilhelmine is of the same age).
And given the decimation the smallpox created in French and Austrian courts, for example, a slightly older Cesarevna would be seen as sensible move.

Personally in this case i still see more sense in marrying Prussian princess to Russian Tsarevich, it secures the alliance and Princess is of good pedigree and similar age.

While Federick can marry Swedish princess to bind three strongest members of the Mafia.

Regarding Russian Tsarina , she could theoretically still marry Mecklenburg heir, or Danish one as French King is a no go.

Regarding French King marrying Danish princess, I don't think that it would make lot of geopolitical sense as it would put a strain on relationship with rest of the Mafia and British/Dutch. But I leave that to someone more versed in Danish politics.

I would say she could marry Swedish King but Queen if Denmark and Queen of Sweden are sisters though.
 
Personally in this case i still see more sense in marrying Prussian princess to Russian Tsarevich, it secures the alliance and Princess is of good pedigree and similar age.
Agree. Just thinking of ways to avoid double match, and Danish princess and a Wettin proxy came to mind.
Double Prussian match is just stepping into too much entanglement with Britain for Russia's own good. Prompting France greenlighting Danish match to keep the situation balanced.
 
Now what remains to be done is strongarming Synod into double marriage of siblings thing, as this never was done before and as of OTL 1725 was still illegal under "husband is equal to wife as far as marriage issues go" ("муж жене в брачных делах равен") as in-laws were considered the same as blood relations.

If anything, Synod was not a major problem: it already was OK with the issues like a secrecy of confession and most of its members could be easily persuaded that the state interests are higher than a dogma. Those who did not quite get it, will be sorry for the rest of their lives (which may not take too long when one is walled up in a cold cell with a small opening for getting a food (no way to remove youknowwhat).


The simplest loophole would be having two marriages on the same date, so that neither party is sister/brother-in-law to each other as they go to altar.
You see, there is always a good solution. 😂
Fredericke Sophie Wilhelmine of Prussia to Peter I can see going seamlessly, re. Frederick - his father was interested in Russian alliance IOTL, but would he be interested in DOUBLE alliance TTL?
You mean “future Peter II”? As for the rest, it is just an idea (of course, poor Natalya). And what’s bad with a double marriage? FWI would not be able to find a wife with a higher rank for his son.
 
Or alternatively the Favorite Pet can offer his niece Eleonore Elisabeth Auguste of Hohenzollern-Hechingen (b. 1705) as the wife for Peter. Yes, she's older, but after the Danish king marriage precedent there is nothing to object from Russian side, the girl would be from poor court but with good connections/dowry, and makes sure that Russia remains committed to keeping Wettins in PLC.
Marriage to older lady also makes sence as Peter is the last living male Romanov other than his father (and Empress Helena is already nearing menopause) - Empress Maria had no sons, and Peter has no male siblings. See also OTL Louis XV marriage for the precedent. With Empress Elisaveta Feodorovna Peter can have kids ASAP.
I don’t see too much reason for the Russian court to have heir to the throne married to someone from the “second tier” when he can marry a daughter of the King of Prussia. For what? Just “to make sure that Russia remains committed to keeping Wettins in PLC”? Where is the Russian interest in making policy of convenience into a binding obligation? The whole point of the Russian-Swedish schema was to allow August to retain the throne for only as long as he behaves according to their wishes. The same applies to the succession issue: as soon as there is something not to the Big Guys’ liking, the Former Favorite Pet But Now The Bad Doggie is going to have his already minimal power in the PLC cut down even further and if the bad behavior persists then the next king of the PLC is going to be a magnate of their choice or some minor HRE personality or whoever. So the matrimonial links in that direction are counter-productive.

Now, as far as the Russian succession is involved, by the Petrian Succession Law the throne can pass to the Ioannovich line , aka to the Swedish, Mecklenburgian or Danish males (in that order) . Or, if Natalya married and has a male child, to her son. Or, of there are no males whatsoever, to a female. So the things must go really bad for a succession crisis.

BTW, Peter (IITL) by the time of a marriage is already 17 and so is his intended wife so what prevents them from having the children ASAP?
 
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