That would be a much welcomed bonus!
Plus with a different wife he would be in a much secure position regarding the succession.
No GNW (or “Peter goes South”)
- Thread starter alexmilman
- Start date
Plus with a different wife he would be in a much secure position regarding the succession.
is Alexander already preparing Nicky to rule in this TL, since isn't one of the reasons why Nicky is such an incompetent ruler because Alexander not preparing him enough
I’m afraid that in OTL “preparing” him would be a pretty much pointless exercise because Russian Empire was in a very complicated situation when its status-related claims were not reflecting its real power and domestic situation and AIII could not provide him with the ready scenarios for the unknown future. Then goes NIIs personality: his father, for better or worse, was a domineering figure and was steadily following the chosen course (which does not mean that the course was 100% correct) but NII was seemingly easily influenced by all types of people.
Given better position Russia is in opposed to lousy position from otl it is quite unlikely, though world should dread another Willy seeking to find his place in the sun.
But really Nicky needs patience and caution as otl Russia was doing quite fine internally only being distracted by forgein adventures that were quite needless and while Russian- British convention was a nice spin of solving competition, well ill let Arthur Nicolson say it himself
"...if Russia accepts, cordially and whole-heartedly, our intention to preserve the peaceable possession of our Asiatic possessions, then I am quite sure that in this country no government will make it its business to thwart or obstruct Russia's policy in Europe. On the contrary, it is urgently desirable that Russia's position and influence be re-established in the councils of Europe."
Nicky followed it by going ham on the Balkans and got himself doped in following British interests. Indeed it was quite urgent for Russia to act as counterweight to Germany.
I admit curious to see how this move goes for Japan, after all China while going through some unpopular polices by their Qing overlords is in a far better position, then again Russia would worst case likely prevent to bad a failure for Japan and better to make a move than just hope it get's better for their position.
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As I've said, 50 to 50 (wife of Peter Alexeevich vs wife of Nicholas I). But let's cross fingers and hope for the best!
Nicholas II could end up being a very boring yet ineffectual monarch if Russia is very stable and prosperous as of right now and Alexei does not have hemophilia (so no one like Rasputin to influence him or his wife). At worst he would appear to be a bad monarch that's easily influenced by his advisors (but a good family man) but not the utter incompetent tyrant he is depicted in current historiography (for good reason).
That’s true but ITTL trick is that alt-NII does not have to look for “his place in the sun”: with RE being much better off technologically, financially, socially, militarily and diplomatically this place is already guaranteed so the only thing he will have to do is not to screw up beyond the “acceptable limits”. The same goes for the people around him: they are within a seriously different framework and some of the major mistakes are hardly going to be made.
ITTL the only problematic part of Asia is Far East (CA and Persia are pretty much settled leaving in question some obscure oasises and almost inhabitable mountain ridges) and it is going to be handled differently from OTL. There are some conflicting international interests but they are mostly not anti-Russian. But let me proceed with that line: I already let it to hang in a limbo due to a much greater “public interest” in more exotic places. 😉
Nothing of the kind is (so far) happening ITTL: Europe is much more peaceful and Britain, as powerful as it is, has to fit itself into a reasonably well established framework part of which is RE.
A boring monarch is a blessing comparing to a “heroic” one. And as for the (in)efficiency, the less monarch is interfering in the domestic affairs, the better for the subjects.
Well, Nicky’s problem was the same as of Louis XVI: he was trying to hold to a power while not being a tyrant. The Grand Duke Alexander Mikhailovich formulated this well: he had to either go all the way parliamentarian or all the way absolutist. Nicky was “neither fish nor meat”.
China is (at the starting point) almost in the same position as in OTL, which means generally lousy.
The difference is that the 100 Days reforms are started few years ahead of the schedule and the same goes for the Dowager Empress being out of the power. Which means:
(a) That a lot of Manchu are being pissed of with the regime which infringes on their social position and even well-being in more than one way.
(b) The bureaucratic apparatus is pissed off with the regime,the young emperor does not have a clue how to govern and his “pro-western” reforming advisors are detached from a reality.
As for the Russian position, please re-read carefully what I wrote about the Russian considerations on the subject and ask yourself why would alt-RE protect China? Especially when it can resolve some issues with a relatively small effort. 😉
O my bad I mean Russia protect Japan and ensure it does not escalate to much and wreck the Korean market for their own use, plus better Japan in the area than some other power plus mutual interests align.
Diplomatic ouverture
305. Diplomatic ouverture
Finally, one of the subordinates of Japanese Ambassador communicated with the officers of a landed force and managed to explain to his boss the real situation: the military wanted a war with China and the only question is a proper timing. The Ambassador, Baron Ōtori Keisuke, was not a fool and finally understood what is being expected from him. His telegram dated by June 18 was drastically different from the earlier messages.
“Upon arrival in Seoul and studying the situation on the spot, my perception of the situation in Korea changed dramatically (!!!). There are no Chinese soldiers in Seoul. The Tonhak uprising was defeated, and Jeongju was again occupied by government troops. Chinese troops that landed in Asana remain in place and are not moving anywhere. In this regard, I do not see the need to increase the contingents of Japanese troops necessary for protection. But since it would be extremely unprofitable for Japan to return the three thousandth detachment of our soldiers who arrived in Incheon on June 15, we must find a way to use them effectively (!!!). Fortunately, on June 15 I was visited by the Chinese Resident General in Korea, Yuan Shikai, who offered to come to an agreement regarding simultaneous troops removal from Korea. I replied that I was not authorized to decide on the withdrawal of troops and should request instructions from my government. In this case, we must demand from the Korean government and resident general Yuan Shikai that China withdraw its troops earlier than Japan. In the event that Yuan Shikai refuses to accept this demand, we must take advantage of its refusal to accuse China of supporting its suzerainty over Korea, to cause a harm by such actions in this country. We must use this refusal to expel, with the help of our military forces, the Chinese troops from the Korean territory. I’m waiting for your fast instructions to know if I can use the described above extreme measures if our peace talks would not bring desirable results.”
Comments are unnecessary. There was no doubt that Yuan Shikai and Li Hongzhang would not withdraw their troops from Korea other than simultaneously with Japan.Yuan Shikai had no illusions regarding possibility of a peaceful settlement: the Japanese troops had been in Seul and were not going to leave. Otori spelled out something nobody else said aloud: the war with China may be necessary for establishing Japanese control over Korea.
Prime Minister Itō Hirobumi was in a difficult position because to a great degree his actions would define success or a failure of Japan’s risky action in Korea. In his position, a “decisive prudence” was the only way out of this situation, which looked as following:
However, there was still a need to explain Japanese military presence in Korea and the foreign powers were not convinced by the explanations regarding possibility of a new rebellion. Reports coming from Otori made it clear that the foreign powers (at least some of them) will not allow Japan to act freely and exclusively in its own interests. But removal of the troops also was out of question: the Chinese could easily imitate a new “danger” and would not repeat their current mistake of not occupying the critical cities thus seriously diminishing Japanese chances for success in a future. Then, well, if brigade is already in Korea, it must do something to justify its presence there.
Ito (PM, not an admiral) found a solution: there must by Sino-Japanese Commission to reform Korean administration (check finances, clean the government and provincial administration, create new military force, cut the expenses and arrange payments on the loans, etc.). Of course, the logic was absent: on one hand, Japan kept declaring that Korea is an independent state and OTOH it proposes the actions without its consent. Minister of the Foreign Affairs expressed opinion that with a probability of 90% China is going to reject the proposal but it should not mean that Japan must abandon the plan and that Ito’s plan is the best possible even if it can create serious problems with China. Majority of the cabinet supported the plan and it was sanctioned by the Emperor. From this point on the focus shifted from Korea to China. If China rejects the project, Japan is going ahead alone and if there is going to be a military conflict, so be it. “Our emperor supported our intentions. Our army and navy are ready for war. Everyone who bothers us must be either deceived or destroyed.”
Chinese Ambassador in Japan was informed about the plan which China was not going to accept: (a) Korean government on all levels was thoroughly pro-China and (b) there was nothing about the troops withdrawal.
In China Li Hongzhang practically simultaneously got report from Yuan Shikai assuring him that withdrawal issue is being agreed upon, from China's envoy to Japan Wang Fung Zao and from the Japanese consul in Tianjin, Arakawa. And he was confused because the first message was in a direct contradiction with two others and from these two it was impossible to understand how Japan is planning to conduct the reforms in a sovereign country (which Korea was a cording to Japan) and what it expects from China. The only obvious thing was that Japan was to retain its troops in Korea.
Predictably, his response was a refusal. Predictably, this refusal was rejected by Japan and some sentences had been found offensive as implying that China has more rights in Korea than Japan. On June 22 China was delivered a de facto ultimatum stating that, due to the numerous concerns of all imaginable types, Japan can’t withdraw its troops from Korea. Otori was instructed to start conducting reforms unilaterally, which he started doing.
In a meantime, Li Hongzhang tried to get Russia involved in a process. Russian ambassador in China, Count Cassini, was informed about the Chinese version of the events, in which the part regarding reforms was not mentioned, and asked for the Russian mediation about which Cassini informed Russian Minister of the Foreign Affairs, de Girs. Russian ambassador in Japan, Khitrovo, was better (but not fully) informed regarding the Russian plans so he informed de Girs about the full scope of the proposal and advised not to get involved in any mediating activities, warning that “other countries” would like to see Russia to get entangled there and that Japan is committed to war no matter what. However, in his opinion Japan was doomed to lose a conflict with China.
Japanese, not being quite sure about the Russian stance, presented Russia with their official position. Ambassador in Russia declared that Japan simply wants to use situation to guarantee independent and peaceful Korea [2] and can’t get its troops out before reaching agreement with China.
Finally, by getting inputs from all sides, de Girs, got a reasonably clear picture. The demands formulated by the quarreling parties were mutually exclusive plus it became clear that Li Hongzhang is trying to convince Russia to act exclusively in Chinese interests. As a result, any decision regarding mediation has to be postponed until unidentified future. Both Cassini and Khitrovo were informed on this account and instructed to continue the obviously pointless course regarding evacuation of the troops. To avoid unintentional disclosing of the vital information, the ambassadors were informed strictly on need to know basis: neither China nor Japan were Russian allies and AIII wanted to preserve a complete freedom of action. Of course, as a result, poor de Girs had extra work to do but se la vie.
However, the Foreign Ministry of Japan was officially informed that “The Russian government is happy to have the opportunity to re express its friendly feelings towards the Empire of Japan” because Empire of Japan informed Russia regarding an absence of the aggressive intentions regarding Korea. The message was understood correctly: Russia is not going to get involved (on China’s side). Li Hongzhang’s game did not work out. As a cherry on the top, in July 1 Cassini found out that the British ambassador is actively warning Li Hongzhang against the Russian mediation insisting that Russia secretly approves actions of Japan (there was an immediate alarm in the Russian Foreign Ministry: was there a leak close to the top or just a lucky guess?).
Cassini kept sending the worried messages warning about the negative consequences of Japan’s control over Korea, a need to give the government of China a definite (positive) answer to the mediation proposal and the Russian position toward China in the case of war. He was asking for the instructions and got them on July 10: “We do not want to interfere in present Korean confusion after Koreans and Japanese, being able to always protect our interests. Keep in mind that our communications with Japan had a character of a friendly, even if insistent, advice … From Japan’s answer we can see certain readiness to come to an agreement and we would like that China used this opportunity. It seems that Britain is acting, so far, in the same direction.”
Britain was, indeed, involved: Li Hongzhang approached the British ambassador, Nicholas O’Connor simultaneously with Cassini but, unlike Cassini, O’Connor preferred to start with getting all possible information by contacting British representative in Japan who could not provide a clear picture. Then O’Connor sent telegram to the head of British Foreign Office, lord Kimberley, informing him regarding the situation and recommending to organize in London talks between the ambassadors of Japan and China to determine his own actions based upon the result of these talks. Li Hongzhang wanted an immediate action and asked ambassador to arrange concentration of the British naval squadron near Korea or Taiwan, and getting involved the British ambassador in Japan to put pressure on Japanese government. But O’Connor had been proceeding slowly, coordinating every step with the Chinese court.
Li Hongzhang approached ambassadors of France and the US to find out their willingness to became mediators. At the end of June, the Chinese envoy to England Gong Zhaoyuan notified Lord Kimberley of the Russian side's consent to mediation. And he also said that Li Hongzhang, through a Russian envoy, proposed the disengagement of troops on the peninsula as a possible option: Chinese - to Pyongyang, Japanese - to Pusan. Kimberley immediately requested the British envoy to Russia to find out about the Russian actions and statements on Korean issue. The envoy visited the head of the Asian Department of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Count Kapnist and informed him about London’s request. Kapnist was sincerely amazed because he never heard anything of the kind from anybody and assured ambassador there is no such announcement and that Russia is not planning to get involved. He suggested that this is a false information spread by Li Hongzhang with a purpose to get Britain involved. However, O’Connor got instructions regarding the British role in resolving the situation and informed Chinese government that if China agrees regarding reforms in Korea then Britain will help to remove the Japanese troops from Korea. He was told that reforms are in principle possible if it does not damage the prestige and internal structure of China. The British ambassador in Japan was informed and met with the Foreign Minister of Japan to inform him that China is ready to negotiate reforms in Korea, provided that its vassal dependence on China remains unharmed. This provided Japan with unbeatable trump card: “Since Japan does not consider it necessary to discuss the issue of Korea's independence, China should also not discuss the issue of Korea's vassal dependence on China… Imperial government demands equal with China position in Korea, both politically and economically.”
In interview, which Japan’s ambassador in Britain gave to “Reuters”, he emphasized that the dispute between Japan and China is a struggle between the progress (Japan) with a reactionary conservatism (China) and, putting aside the issue of reforms, Japan is not going to be deterred from its duty to protect independence and territorial integrity of Korea and will insist upon the necessary administrative reforms… Of course, the British public opinion was all for a progress and so was the case in the US where the article of Japanese Ambassador published in “North American was telling the same story.
Of course, none of these enthusiasts had a foggiest idea what “reforms” meant in practice, turning Korea into vassal of Japan. Both Li Hongzhang and Chinese government understood this but explaining unpleasant truth to O’Connor produced a negative reaction: Russia should not be allowed to dominate the Far East because, as far as Britain was concerned, it was her role. But the course which was pursued by O’Connor was dead upon arrival due to the irreconcilable differences between the Chinese and Japanese positions regarding Korea. However, Britain was the party least interested in war because it would negatively impact its trade. Preserving peace at any cost meant to attend first the interests of the stronger party, Japan. But this automatically result in rejection of the British proposals by China. But the Chinese position also was somewhat short-sighted because the government did not took into an account that circumstances favoring Japan can be temporarily and rejected any concession whatsoever so O’Conner and lord Kimberley were simply wasting their time but kept trying. The British diplomats in Russia, the US, France, Germany received instructions to arrange for a joined action to prevent a war.
The military conflict looked inevitable and it was opinion of AIII that Russia must be ready for action but a scope and direction of such an action would be defined by a military situation. As far as the initial plan was involved, one of the sides would be more amenable to these plans than another but everything, including the plan, could be easily changed depending upon the circumstances. So far, information presented by the Russian General Staff was favoring Japan but not overwhelmingly so.
_______
[1] None of them opted to die and both made prominent careers under Meiji regime. Enomoto Takeaki later became one of the founders of a new Japanese Navy and held various ministerial positions.
[2] “Godfather” was not written, yet, and sentence “don’t insult my intelligence” was not widely known.
“If it's dying you want you can do it anytime.”
Ōtori to Enomoto Takeaki after he lost Battle of Hakodate [1]
“It's not the size of the dog in the fight, it's the size of the fight in the dog.”
Mark Twain
“Don't fight a battle if you don't gain anything by winning.”
Erwin Rommel
“By falling to prepare, you are preparing to fall.”
Ben Franklin
“You know something but you can’t and shouldn’t know everything.”
Ostrovsky, “Enough foolishness for every wise man”
Ōtori to Enomoto Takeaki after he lost Battle of Hakodate [1]
“It's not the size of the dog in the fight, it's the size of the fight in the dog.”
Mark Twain
“Don't fight a battle if you don't gain anything by winning.”
Erwin Rommel
“By falling to prepare, you are preparing to fall.”
Ben Franklin
“You know something but you can’t and shouldn’t know everything.”
Ostrovsky, “Enough foolishness for every wise man”
Finally, one of the subordinates of Japanese Ambassador communicated with the officers of a landed force and managed to explain to his boss the real situation: the military wanted a war with China and the only question is a proper timing. The Ambassador, Baron Ōtori Keisuke, was not a fool and finally understood what is being expected from him. His telegram dated by June 18 was drastically different from the earlier messages.
“Upon arrival in Seoul and studying the situation on the spot, my perception of the situation in Korea changed dramatically (!!!). There are no Chinese soldiers in Seoul. The Tonhak uprising was defeated, and Jeongju was again occupied by government troops. Chinese troops that landed in Asana remain in place and are not moving anywhere. In this regard, I do not see the need to increase the contingents of Japanese troops necessary for protection. But since it would be extremely unprofitable for Japan to return the three thousandth detachment of our soldiers who arrived in Incheon on June 15, we must find a way to use them effectively (!!!). Fortunately, on June 15 I was visited by the Chinese Resident General in Korea, Yuan Shikai, who offered to come to an agreement regarding simultaneous troops removal from Korea. I replied that I was not authorized to decide on the withdrawal of troops and should request instructions from my government. In this case, we must demand from the Korean government and resident general Yuan Shikai that China withdraw its troops earlier than Japan. In the event that Yuan Shikai refuses to accept this demand, we must take advantage of its refusal to accuse China of supporting its suzerainty over Korea, to cause a harm by such actions in this country. We must use this refusal to expel, with the help of our military forces, the Chinese troops from the Korean territory. I’m waiting for your fast instructions to know if I can use the described above extreme measures if our peace talks would not bring desirable results.”
Comments are unnecessary. There was no doubt that Yuan Shikai and Li Hongzhang would not withdraw their troops from Korea other than simultaneously with Japan.Yuan Shikai had no illusions regarding possibility of a peaceful settlement: the Japanese troops had been in Seul and were not going to leave. Otori spelled out something nobody else said aloud: the war with China may be necessary for establishing Japanese control over Korea.
Prime Minister Itō Hirobumi was in a difficult position because to a great degree his actions would define success or a failure of Japan’s risky action in Korea. In his position, a “decisive prudence” was the only way out of this situation, which looked as following:
- Main Staff established for the expeditionary corps was ready to locate to Hiroshima within 24 hours.
- Commander of a landed brigade, Oshima, hold his troops in Inchon ready to march within 5 hours.
- Ships of Admiral Itō Sukeyuki had been in Inchnon and patrolling the Yellow Sea.
- General Staff quietly started preparations to mobilization and kept sending new contingents to Korea.
However, there was still a need to explain Japanese military presence in Korea and the foreign powers were not convinced by the explanations regarding possibility of a new rebellion. Reports coming from Otori made it clear that the foreign powers (at least some of them) will not allow Japan to act freely and exclusively in its own interests. But removal of the troops also was out of question: the Chinese could easily imitate a new “danger” and would not repeat their current mistake of not occupying the critical cities thus seriously diminishing Japanese chances for success in a future. Then, well, if brigade is already in Korea, it must do something to justify its presence there.
Ito (PM, not an admiral) found a solution: there must by Sino-Japanese Commission to reform Korean administration (check finances, clean the government and provincial administration, create new military force, cut the expenses and arrange payments on the loans, etc.). Of course, the logic was absent: on one hand, Japan kept declaring that Korea is an independent state and OTOH it proposes the actions without its consent. Minister of the Foreign Affairs expressed opinion that with a probability of 90% China is going to reject the proposal but it should not mean that Japan must abandon the plan and that Ito’s plan is the best possible even if it can create serious problems with China. Majority of the cabinet supported the plan and it was sanctioned by the Emperor. From this point on the focus shifted from Korea to China. If China rejects the project, Japan is going ahead alone and if there is going to be a military conflict, so be it. “Our emperor supported our intentions. Our army and navy are ready for war. Everyone who bothers us must be either deceived or destroyed.”
Chinese Ambassador in Japan was informed about the plan which China was not going to accept: (a) Korean government on all levels was thoroughly pro-China and (b) there was nothing about the troops withdrawal.
In China Li Hongzhang practically simultaneously got report from Yuan Shikai assuring him that withdrawal issue is being agreed upon, from China's envoy to Japan Wang Fung Zao and from the Japanese consul in Tianjin, Arakawa. And he was confused because the first message was in a direct contradiction with two others and from these two it was impossible to understand how Japan is planning to conduct the reforms in a sovereign country (which Korea was a cording to Japan) and what it expects from China. The only obvious thing was that Japan was to retain its troops in Korea.
Predictably, his response was a refusal. Predictably, this refusal was rejected by Japan and some sentences had been found offensive as implying that China has more rights in Korea than Japan. On June 22 China was delivered a de facto ultimatum stating that, due to the numerous concerns of all imaginable types, Japan can’t withdraw its troops from Korea. Otori was instructed to start conducting reforms unilaterally, which he started doing.
In a meantime, Li Hongzhang tried to get Russia involved in a process. Russian ambassador in China, Count Cassini, was informed about the Chinese version of the events, in which the part regarding reforms was not mentioned, and asked for the Russian mediation about which Cassini informed Russian Minister of the Foreign Affairs, de Girs. Russian ambassador in Japan, Khitrovo, was better (but not fully) informed regarding the Russian plans so he informed de Girs about the full scope of the proposal and advised not to get involved in any mediating activities, warning that “other countries” would like to see Russia to get entangled there and that Japan is committed to war no matter what. However, in his opinion Japan was doomed to lose a conflict with China.
Japanese, not being quite sure about the Russian stance, presented Russia with their official position. Ambassador in Russia declared that Japan simply wants to use situation to guarantee independent and peaceful Korea [2] and can’t get its troops out before reaching agreement with China.
Finally, by getting inputs from all sides, de Girs, got a reasonably clear picture. The demands formulated by the quarreling parties were mutually exclusive plus it became clear that Li Hongzhang is trying to convince Russia to act exclusively in Chinese interests. As a result, any decision regarding mediation has to be postponed until unidentified future. Both Cassini and Khitrovo were informed on this account and instructed to continue the obviously pointless course regarding evacuation of the troops. To avoid unintentional disclosing of the vital information, the ambassadors were informed strictly on need to know basis: neither China nor Japan were Russian allies and AIII wanted to preserve a complete freedom of action. Of course, as a result, poor de Girs had extra work to do but se la vie.
However, the Foreign Ministry of Japan was officially informed that “The Russian government is happy to have the opportunity to re express its friendly feelings towards the Empire of Japan” because Empire of Japan informed Russia regarding an absence of the aggressive intentions regarding Korea. The message was understood correctly: Russia is not going to get involved (on China’s side). Li Hongzhang’s game did not work out. As a cherry on the top, in July 1 Cassini found out that the British ambassador is actively warning Li Hongzhang against the Russian mediation insisting that Russia secretly approves actions of Japan (there was an immediate alarm in the Russian Foreign Ministry: was there a leak close to the top or just a lucky guess?).
Cassini kept sending the worried messages warning about the negative consequences of Japan’s control over Korea, a need to give the government of China a definite (positive) answer to the mediation proposal and the Russian position toward China in the case of war. He was asking for the instructions and got them on July 10: “We do not want to interfere in present Korean confusion after Koreans and Japanese, being able to always protect our interests. Keep in mind that our communications with Japan had a character of a friendly, even if insistent, advice … From Japan’s answer we can see certain readiness to come to an agreement and we would like that China used this opportunity. It seems that Britain is acting, so far, in the same direction.”
Britain was, indeed, involved: Li Hongzhang approached the British ambassador, Nicholas O’Connor simultaneously with Cassini but, unlike Cassini, O’Connor preferred to start with getting all possible information by contacting British representative in Japan who could not provide a clear picture. Then O’Connor sent telegram to the head of British Foreign Office, lord Kimberley, informing him regarding the situation and recommending to organize in London talks between the ambassadors of Japan and China to determine his own actions based upon the result of these talks. Li Hongzhang wanted an immediate action and asked ambassador to arrange concentration of the British naval squadron near Korea or Taiwan, and getting involved the British ambassador in Japan to put pressure on Japanese government. But O’Connor had been proceeding slowly, coordinating every step with the Chinese court.
Li Hongzhang approached ambassadors of France and the US to find out their willingness to became mediators. At the end of June, the Chinese envoy to England Gong Zhaoyuan notified Lord Kimberley of the Russian side's consent to mediation. And he also said that Li Hongzhang, through a Russian envoy, proposed the disengagement of troops on the peninsula as a possible option: Chinese - to Pyongyang, Japanese - to Pusan. Kimberley immediately requested the British envoy to Russia to find out about the Russian actions and statements on Korean issue. The envoy visited the head of the Asian Department of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Count Kapnist and informed him about London’s request. Kapnist was sincerely amazed because he never heard anything of the kind from anybody and assured ambassador there is no such announcement and that Russia is not planning to get involved. He suggested that this is a false information spread by Li Hongzhang with a purpose to get Britain involved. However, O’Connor got instructions regarding the British role in resolving the situation and informed Chinese government that if China agrees regarding reforms in Korea then Britain will help to remove the Japanese troops from Korea. He was told that reforms are in principle possible if it does not damage the prestige and internal structure of China. The British ambassador in Japan was informed and met with the Foreign Minister of Japan to inform him that China is ready to negotiate reforms in Korea, provided that its vassal dependence on China remains unharmed. This provided Japan with unbeatable trump card: “Since Japan does not consider it necessary to discuss the issue of Korea's independence, China should also not discuss the issue of Korea's vassal dependence on China… Imperial government demands equal with China position in Korea, both politically and economically.”
In interview, which Japan’s ambassador in Britain gave to “Reuters”, he emphasized that the dispute between Japan and China is a struggle between the progress (Japan) with a reactionary conservatism (China) and, putting aside the issue of reforms, Japan is not going to be deterred from its duty to protect independence and territorial integrity of Korea and will insist upon the necessary administrative reforms… Of course, the British public opinion was all for a progress and so was the case in the US where the article of Japanese Ambassador published in “North American was telling the same story.
Of course, none of these enthusiasts had a foggiest idea what “reforms” meant in practice, turning Korea into vassal of Japan. Both Li Hongzhang and Chinese government understood this but explaining unpleasant truth to O’Connor produced a negative reaction: Russia should not be allowed to dominate the Far East because, as far as Britain was concerned, it was her role. But the course which was pursued by O’Connor was dead upon arrival due to the irreconcilable differences between the Chinese and Japanese positions regarding Korea. However, Britain was the party least interested in war because it would negatively impact its trade. Preserving peace at any cost meant to attend first the interests of the stronger party, Japan. But this automatically result in rejection of the British proposals by China. But the Chinese position also was somewhat short-sighted because the government did not took into an account that circumstances favoring Japan can be temporarily and rejected any concession whatsoever so O’Conner and lord Kimberley were simply wasting their time but kept trying. The British diplomats in Russia, the US, France, Germany received instructions to arrange for a joined action to prevent a war.
- The US Secretary of State declared that participation of the third parties has to be “exclusively friendly”.
- German Foreign Minister declared that Germany is not interested in “Korean Issue” and while, of course, wants a peaceful resolution of the conflict, is not intended to take a part in joined intervention into it.
- French Foreign Minister explained that France does not have serious interests in Korea.
- The only country displaying interest was … Italy. It expressed willingness to participate knowing for sure that nobody would ask it to do anything.
The military conflict looked inevitable and it was opinion of AIII that Russia must be ready for action but a scope and direction of such an action would be defined by a military situation. As far as the initial plan was involved, one of the sides would be more amenable to these plans than another but everything, including the plan, could be easily changed depending upon the circumstances. So far, information presented by the Russian General Staff was favoring Japan but not overwhelmingly so.
_______
[1] None of them opted to die and both made prominent careers under Meiji regime. Enomoto Takeaki later became one of the founders of a new Japanese Navy and held various ministerial positions.
[2] “Godfather” was not written, yet, and sentence “don’t insult my intelligence” was not widely known.
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The war starts
306. The war starts
By July 20 Japanese had been in a full possession of Seul: whatever few Korean troops had been there either capitulated or surrendered. The King of Korea was a de facto prisoner and pro-Chinese government was disbanded with the most inconvenient personages arrested. Now, Otori & Co had to come with a plausible cover-up for their reforms spiel and for this they needed what could be referenced to as a “reformist government” without causing too much laugh among the “third parties”. Of course, the plank was set quite low because none of the said “third parties” did care too much as long as their existing concessions had been unharmed but at least some proprieties had to be observed, which meant that Otori could not just catch an arbitrary person on the street and declare him to be a Korean leader (regent to the king). But there was a clear shortage of any personages with the name recognition willing to cooperate, either due to the political views or simply because they feared retaliation from the Chinese (who could come back) or fellow Koreans (who generally did not like the Japanese). Finally, a person seemingly ready to cooperate was found.
This was ‘Grand Internal Prince Heungseon', also known as the Daewongun, the King’s elderly father who since 1885 lived in his palace under a house-arrest and in the past was kind of pro-Japanese. He was approached and, after he agreed to be a head of the new government, liberated him from the house arrest. His agreement was obtained after a rather meaningless assurance by Otori that Japan is not going to grab any Korean territory. However, almost as soon as he was appointed, the Japanese got disappointed as he seemed interested "only in grasping power and purging his opponents and did not see the need for a reform policy”. So he had to promise to “abstain from interference in political affairs". Which he did. The rest was easy.
Kim Hong-jip, a dedicated reformer and old time Japanese client, was made Prime Minister and proceeded with the “Gabo Reform”. Under his leadership the deliberate Council passed 210 reform bills restructuring Korean government more or less along the Japanese lines, which probably was to the better but did not mean that he became too popular. However, for PM Ito the important things were (a) successful military operations(unsuccessful ones could result in a political crisis and fall of his government) and (b) possible international reaction to what hey can consider as the open aggression.
The Chinese position also was quite complicated. The most competent military commander in the country, dignitary for Northern Affairs Li Hongzhang was an opponent of immediate military solution because he knew perfectly that China is not ready to war technically, financially or politically. His prolonged diplomatic maneuvers were not too successful but they helped to gain some time. However, this course was not popular in the Chinese government and at the Imperial court. The immediate war to the victorious end was most advocated by those who had no idea about it, but were interested in royal attention as the most important patriot and defender of national prestige. The most influential figure was the 1st Prince Chun, not the most competent administrator but the most loud “patriot” surrounded by other “patriots” of the same ilk, the greedy dishonest scumbags.
Their Enemy #1 was the naval program: the state money had been “thrown into the sea” instead of landing up in their patriotic pockets [2]. During the last decades these “most Chinese Chinese” looted everything they could conveniently putting most of the blame upon the Dowager Empress whom they removed from power [3]. Of course, the Enemy #2 (or perhaps even #1) was Li Hongzhang who was the most competent statesman in China. They became extremely unpopular and considered a victorious war as the best solution: who would doubt a victory? After all, did not China have an army million-strong? As usually, the hawks included people who had nothing to do with the military or even the government but, within framework of the Chinese culture, had been quite influential, like Senior Lecturer of the Academy of Sciences, Wen Tingshi who on one hand was severely criticizing a naval program as pointless and the navy as being in a lousy shape while OTOH demanded immediate engagement of the Northern Fleet against Japanese Navy and sending 10,000 Chinese troops to Seul. Another “military genius” close to the Emperor, Yu Lianyuan, in his report dated by July 17 simply proposed a massive attack on Tokyo. “It would be like how in ancient times, ceding to the enemy the Principality of Han, they went to war on the Principality of Wei to save the Principality of Zhao. This is the best policy.”
Li Hongzhang sought no less than these political nincompoops to defeat Japan and maintain China's influence in Korea. But, unlike them, he knew much better both the capabilities of the Chinese army and the price of victory. Therefore, he considered preparing for war to be more important than the war itself. And he worked tirelessly in this direction. But the war and peace decisions were not his to make. He was under constant criticism for each and every action he took and by July was practically deprived of any initiative. On July 20, the Academy of Sciences presented a report on the situation in Korea. The essence of the report is the immediate declaration of war and the outbreak of active hostilities. [4] and its individual members were urging the Emperor to declare a war. Some of the high-ranking civilian bureaucrats had been proposing (directly to the Emperor) explicit plans of how to proceed with the war, which, of course, must be declared right now even if some of these “plans” involved massive rearmament of the troops. All this in a blissful ignorance of hat os going on because telegraph connection with Korea did not work. Only on July 26 a Chinese merchant who managed to escape from Inchon on a British ship sent a telegram informing that “on July 23 Japanese troops surrounded a royal palace and captured the King. Personnel of the Chinese telegraph and diplomatic mission fled.” Li Hongzhang was put in charge of the operations. So far the Chinese troops in Korea under command of general Ye Zhichao had been outnumbered 2:1.
The general plan was to send most of the available troops to Pyongyang while some of the troops would be concentrated on Chinese-Korean border along the Yalu River. The Northern Fleet must sail to the Korean waters and act jointly with the land forces.
The first task of Ye Zhichao forces was to get out: the Japanese troops were between them and their destination. Chinese fought a rearguard action against Oshima’s brigade and started retreat while Oshima returned his troops to Seul where the Korean government signed a defensive-offensive treaty with Japan by which it was obliged to provide supply of the Japanese troops until peace between China and Japan is signed.
Troops of Ye Zhichao had to march over 400 km across a very difficult terrain “During the march, we overcame the passes high in the mountains. People and horses are exhausted. We took the wounded with us, and someone died every day. Words can't convey everything. There were no real roads, we didn't get food or equipment. We were in the position of enemy soldiers and did not expect help from anyone. But the difficulties are not limited to this.”
The Japanese kept landing more troops in Korea and also advancing toward Pyongyang. Obviously, the first big battle would have to be fought there.
In a process, there was a nasty naval accident when the Japanese destroyed a Chinese warship and sunk British merchant ship chartered by China for transporting Chinese troops. It could get nasty internationally but most of the Brits and Germans present on board had been saved so it was decided by the interested parties that this was OK even if, strictly speaking, Japanese had been violating a naval code: the transport sailed out before formal declaration of war so the legitimate behavior was to demand its return to the initial port, not to follow to a Japanese-held port.
In Japan the first successes had been widely celebrated. Ito’s position was secured and the general public was ecstatic and the newspapers had been doing all in their power to maintain national hysteria to prevent citizens from thinking about potential consequences.
The Chinese tried to unite the nation in a common impulse of protecting national dignity and delay the inevitable collapse of the state system.
Several European news agencies reported about unexpected war but each of the European countries had its own problems, which significantly weakened the importance of what was happening in the Far East. The loudest discussions had been in Britain but the discussions were mainly limited to the eternal English problem: the confrontation between the government and the opposition. The opposition accused the government and the First Lord of the Admiralty of allowing the death of English sailors, the government accused the British allies of underestimating the situation in the region - but everything ended quite soon enough.
Almost all countries that in one way or another tried to take part in the Sino-Japanese settlement declared their neutrality in the Sino-Japanese War. The British announced this on July 31, a little later - France and Italy. Russia did not officially declare its neutrality, but nothing gave reason to believe its intention to intervene.
However, the naval powers took care to send their warships to the conflict area. On August 4, the Russian gunboat “Beaver” arrived in Incheon, the Spanish cruiser “Don Juan” was sailing full steam from Malaga to the Yellow Sea, three German cruisers were ordered to urgently go from the training voyage area off the coast of Mexico to the other end of the Pacific Ocean.
In Germany a 5% £1,000,000 loan for China was approved on August 12.
On August 1 Emperor of Japan signed an official declaration of war. The same day Chinese government issued did the same. Time of the diplomacy was over.
_________
[1] In OTL Joseph I of Spain also was quite progressive but we know about the “popular feelings”: the people do not always appreciate things being pushed down their throats even if these things are the good ones.
[2] I’m not sure if the Chinese traditional costume had pockets but it surely had some place(s) to keep money.
[3] A story about he using the naval program’s money to improve her palaces seems to be mostly untrue.
[4] I wonder if there was any other country in the world where Academy of Sciences would do anything of the kind.
"…in the end, there is no doubt that Japan must be utterly crushed"
William Metcalfe Lang, a British advisor to the Chinese military
“Our immediate task at the moment is to accelerate the clash between Japan and China. Any means are good for its implementation. I take full responsibility for this step. Don't let it bother you, Mr. Ambassador.”
Japanese Minister of the Foreign Affairs to Otori, July 1894
“Japan will not demand a single piece of Korean territory.”
Daewongun’s request to Japan
“Result is nothing, process is everything”
Confucius
“To prepare a rabbit stew, you have, as a minimum, to have a cat.”
Old recipe
William Metcalfe Lang, a British advisor to the Chinese military
“Our immediate task at the moment is to accelerate the clash between Japan and China. Any means are good for its implementation. I take full responsibility for this step. Don't let it bother you, Mr. Ambassador.”
Japanese Minister of the Foreign Affairs to Otori, July 1894
“Japan will not demand a single piece of Korean territory.”
Daewongun’s request to Japan
“Result is nothing, process is everything”
Confucius
“To prepare a rabbit stew, you have, as a minimum, to have a cat.”
Old recipe
By July 20 Japanese had been in a full possession of Seul: whatever few Korean troops had been there either capitulated or surrendered. The King of Korea was a de facto prisoner and pro-Chinese government was disbanded with the most inconvenient personages arrested. Now, Otori & Co had to come with a plausible cover-up for their reforms spiel and for this they needed what could be referenced to as a “reformist government” without causing too much laugh among the “third parties”. Of course, the plank was set quite low because none of the said “third parties” did care too much as long as their existing concessions had been unharmed but at least some proprieties had to be observed, which meant that Otori could not just catch an arbitrary person on the street and declare him to be a Korean leader (regent to the king). But there was a clear shortage of any personages with the name recognition willing to cooperate, either due to the political views or simply because they feared retaliation from the Chinese (who could come back) or fellow Koreans (who generally did not like the Japanese). Finally, a person seemingly ready to cooperate was found.
This was ‘Grand Internal Prince Heungseon', also known as the Daewongun, the King’s elderly father who since 1885 lived in his palace under a house-arrest and in the past was kind of pro-Japanese. He was approached and, after he agreed to be a head of the new government, liberated him from the house arrest. His agreement was obtained after a rather meaningless assurance by Otori that Japan is not going to grab any Korean territory. However, almost as soon as he was appointed, the Japanese got disappointed as he seemed interested "only in grasping power and purging his opponents and did not see the need for a reform policy”. So he had to promise to “abstain from interference in political affairs". Which he did. The rest was easy.
Kim Hong-jip, a dedicated reformer and old time Japanese client, was made Prime Minister and proceeded with the “Gabo Reform”. Under his leadership the deliberate Council passed 210 reform bills restructuring Korean government more or less along the Japanese lines, which probably was to the better but did not mean that he became too popular. However, for PM Ito the important things were (a) successful military operations(unsuccessful ones could result in a political crisis and fall of his government) and (b) possible international reaction to what hey can consider as the open aggression.
The Chinese position also was quite complicated. The most competent military commander in the country, dignitary for Northern Affairs Li Hongzhang was an opponent of immediate military solution because he knew perfectly that China is not ready to war technically, financially or politically. His prolonged diplomatic maneuvers were not too successful but they helped to gain some time. However, this course was not popular in the Chinese government and at the Imperial court. The immediate war to the victorious end was most advocated by those who had no idea about it, but were interested in royal attention as the most important patriot and defender of national prestige. The most influential figure was the 1st Prince Chun, not the most competent administrator but the most loud “patriot” surrounded by other “patriots” of the same ilk, the greedy dishonest scumbags.
Their Enemy #1 was the naval program: the state money had been “thrown into the sea” instead of landing up in their patriotic pockets [2]. During the last decades these “most Chinese Chinese” looted everything they could conveniently putting most of the blame upon the Dowager Empress whom they removed from power [3]. Of course, the Enemy #2 (or perhaps even #1) was Li Hongzhang who was the most competent statesman in China. They became extremely unpopular and considered a victorious war as the best solution: who would doubt a victory? After all, did not China have an army million-strong? As usually, the hawks included people who had nothing to do with the military or even the government but, within framework of the Chinese culture, had been quite influential, like Senior Lecturer of the Academy of Sciences, Wen Tingshi who on one hand was severely criticizing a naval program as pointless and the navy as being in a lousy shape while OTOH demanded immediate engagement of the Northern Fleet against Japanese Navy and sending 10,000 Chinese troops to Seul. Another “military genius” close to the Emperor, Yu Lianyuan, in his report dated by July 17 simply proposed a massive attack on Tokyo. “It would be like how in ancient times, ceding to the enemy the Principality of Han, they went to war on the Principality of Wei to save the Principality of Zhao. This is the best policy.”
Li Hongzhang sought no less than these political nincompoops to defeat Japan and maintain China's influence in Korea. But, unlike them, he knew much better both the capabilities of the Chinese army and the price of victory. Therefore, he considered preparing for war to be more important than the war itself. And he worked tirelessly in this direction. But the war and peace decisions were not his to make. He was under constant criticism for each and every action he took and by July was practically deprived of any initiative. On July 20, the Academy of Sciences presented a report on the situation in Korea. The essence of the report is the immediate declaration of war and the outbreak of active hostilities. [4] and its individual members were urging the Emperor to declare a war. Some of the high-ranking civilian bureaucrats had been proposing (directly to the Emperor) explicit plans of how to proceed with the war, which, of course, must be declared right now even if some of these “plans” involved massive rearmament of the troops. All this in a blissful ignorance of hat os going on because telegraph connection with Korea did not work. Only on July 26 a Chinese merchant who managed to escape from Inchon on a British ship sent a telegram informing that “on July 23 Japanese troops surrounded a royal palace and captured the King. Personnel of the Chinese telegraph and diplomatic mission fled.” Li Hongzhang was put in charge of the operations. So far the Chinese troops in Korea under command of general Ye Zhichao had been outnumbered 2:1.
The general plan was to send most of the available troops to Pyongyang while some of the troops would be concentrated on Chinese-Korean border along the Yalu River. The Northern Fleet must sail to the Korean waters and act jointly with the land forces.
The first task of Ye Zhichao forces was to get out: the Japanese troops were between them and their destination. Chinese fought a rearguard action against Oshima’s brigade and started retreat while Oshima returned his troops to Seul where the Korean government signed a defensive-offensive treaty with Japan by which it was obliged to provide supply of the Japanese troops until peace between China and Japan is signed.
Troops of Ye Zhichao had to march over 400 km across a very difficult terrain “During the march, we overcame the passes high in the mountains. People and horses are exhausted. We took the wounded with us, and someone died every day. Words can't convey everything. There were no real roads, we didn't get food or equipment. We were in the position of enemy soldiers and did not expect help from anyone. But the difficulties are not limited to this.”
The Japanese kept landing more troops in Korea and also advancing toward Pyongyang. Obviously, the first big battle would have to be fought there.
In a process, there was a nasty naval accident when the Japanese destroyed a Chinese warship and sunk British merchant ship chartered by China for transporting Chinese troops. It could get nasty internationally but most of the Brits and Germans present on board had been saved so it was decided by the interested parties that this was OK even if, strictly speaking, Japanese had been violating a naval code: the transport sailed out before formal declaration of war so the legitimate behavior was to demand its return to the initial port, not to follow to a Japanese-held port.
In Japan the first successes had been widely celebrated. Ito’s position was secured and the general public was ecstatic and the newspapers had been doing all in their power to maintain national hysteria to prevent citizens from thinking about potential consequences.
The Chinese tried to unite the nation in a common impulse of protecting national dignity and delay the inevitable collapse of the state system.
Several European news agencies reported about unexpected war but each of the European countries had its own problems, which significantly weakened the importance of what was happening in the Far East. The loudest discussions had been in Britain but the discussions were mainly limited to the eternal English problem: the confrontation between the government and the opposition. The opposition accused the government and the First Lord of the Admiralty of allowing the death of English sailors, the government accused the British allies of underestimating the situation in the region - but everything ended quite soon enough.
Almost all countries that in one way or another tried to take part in the Sino-Japanese settlement declared their neutrality in the Sino-Japanese War. The British announced this on July 31, a little later - France and Italy. Russia did not officially declare its neutrality, but nothing gave reason to believe its intention to intervene.
However, the naval powers took care to send their warships to the conflict area. On August 4, the Russian gunboat “Beaver” arrived in Incheon, the Spanish cruiser “Don Juan” was sailing full steam from Malaga to the Yellow Sea, three German cruisers were ordered to urgently go from the training voyage area off the coast of Mexico to the other end of the Pacific Ocean.
In Germany a 5% £1,000,000 loan for China was approved on August 12.
On August 1 Emperor of Japan signed an official declaration of war. The same day Chinese government issued did the same. Time of the diplomacy was over.
_________
[1] In OTL Joseph I of Spain also was quite progressive but we know about the “popular feelings”: the people do not always appreciate things being pushed down their throats even if these things are the good ones.
[2] I’m not sure if the Chinese traditional costume had pockets but it surely had some place(s) to keep money.
[3] A story about he using the naval program’s money to improve her palaces seems to be mostly untrue.
[4] I wonder if there was any other country in the world where Academy of Sciences would do anything of the kind.
Wouldn’t it be boring if we just repeat the OTL history without screwing things up a little bit?😉
Exactly. In OTL Japan had pretty much the best case scenario while China had the opposite. Making things more even within realistic limits, is more intriguing but I have to figure out what these limits are. Anyway, the “strategic plan” is to screw both of them to provide an opening for the third party (or parties).