Malaya What If

[Butchpfd]

OK folks some input from the American Navy position.. In September 1939 when Admiral Thomas Hart relieved Admiral Yarnall as CinC Asiatic Fleet( CinCAF) they discussed Japanese intentions and Yarnall passed on to Hart, that in his opinion, Japan based on their actions in China and Shanghai, would have no problem going to war with the Western colonial powers. Hart was forced by Japanese actions to spend most of the fall of 1939 in Shanghai putting out fires, Especially once the war in Europe broke out and Britain and France started drawing down their forces in China.

As a note: Thomas Hart and Douglas Mac Arthur had been personal friends of 40 years, Mac Arthur's late brother Arthur was Hart's best friend. Hart was one of 3 people who could regularly call Mac Arthur, Douglas, the others being George Marshall, and Franklin Roosevelt.

On his arrival in the Philippines in December and meeting with Mac Arthur he mentioned to Captain, later Adm Purnell, his Chief of Staff, " There's something wrong with Douglas". Sadly the friendship would be downhill from there.
Hart tried to talk to Mac Arthur about the situation with Japan and MacArthur and Mac Arthur blew him off. His concern being the raising of his Philippine Army and his bonus for the men raised.
Mac Arthur was ego driven, and has the best PR of any General. His skills a general was based on WW I and was competent to good. His actions as Chief of Staff and the Bonus March put a permanent moral stain on his record, especially disobeying orders about burning the camps. Even if retired
. General Grount, the then, 1940, commander of U.S. Forces in the Philippines agreed with Yarnall and Hart.

Sources:

A Different Kind of Victory: A Biography of Admiral Thomas C. Hart​

War in the Pacific: End of the Asiatic Fleet and the Classified Report of Admiral Thomas C. Hart​

 

[Fatboy Coxy]

1941, Thursday 20 November;

Later when discussing the type of relationship, he’d had with Churchill, Dill reflected on it being one of the most difficult CoS meetings he’d ever had, but in some ways the most satisfying. Two days ago, he’d received his Marshal’s baton from King George V, at Buckingham Palace to honour his service to the country. As Chief of the Imperial General Staff (CIGS), and now Field Marshal, he was at the pinnacle of his career, but privately he knew it was Churchill’s way of moving him on, yesterday he’d had to release a press statement about his retirement on reaching 60 next month. This had followed on from Churchill decreeing that 60 was the age of retirement for a CIGS. As a sup, and a source of employment going forward, Dill had been offered the role of governor of Bombay.

Dill had a mix of emotions regarding all this, he’d been expecting it some time, and had spoken to his dear friend Brooke about it all. In some ways it was a relief, the stress of constantly battling with Churchill was telling on his health. And now, with the decision to ‘sack’ him taken, Dill felt a weight had been lifted. Furthermore, the good news was ‘Brookie’ was taking over from him, he wouldn’t have wanted anyone else.

As usual the Far East was way down the Agenda, Bomber Command, the Home Front, the Middle East, the Atlantic, and even the Russian Front were all in front, but by about 10.30am they had got to it. They started with what was Japan going to do, the talks in Washington showed no progress, what would happen if they failed. Churchill began by taking his predictable stance of maintaining the policy of following the American initiatives. But today Dill was having none of it.

“Prime Minister, may I draw your attention to the most recent pieces of intelligence, regarding the intercept of the message to the Japanese Consular, on being advised of the date of the last Japanese Merchant leaving Singapore and he was to be on it, we can confirm he was, and no relief has been provided. We also have the report from our Consul in Saigon, who estimated that 50,000 troops have moved through the area in the last month, and most alarming of all, the fact the IJN has changed all its call signs after only three weeks instead of the usual six months. This following the reports back in October of the Combined Fleet being recalled from fleet manoeuvres two months early and the order to all Japanese Consuls to concentrate on reporting all western naval and air movement.”

“Yes, I have read these reports, your point being, Field Marshal Dill?”

“The Japanese have made their decision, they will attack if the talks fail, they have readied themselves Prime Minister”.

“My Dear Field Marshal, I seriously doubt that Japan would attack us, that would be complete madness, indeed I’d welcome it, getting America into the war would be the saving of us all”

“No, Prime Minister, you misunderstand me, I’m saying they will attack us, Great Britain, the move into southern Indo-China was clearly aimed at us. They won’t attack the Americans; they will gamble on the Americans not joining the war”.

Churchill looked over his glasses at Field Marshal Dill.

“Hmm, if what you say was correct, and I for one minute do not think that the case, we would only have to hold on for a couple of weeks, a month at most, by which time the President would have brought America into the war. I’m sure we could hold out, if not in Malaya, then certainly in the Fortress of Singapore”.

Dill clenched his hands together, and looking down at the table, took a deep breath before replying in a calm almost condescending tone of an adult talking to a child, all the time looking Churchill straight in the eye.

“Prime Minister, I feel your use of the word Fortress is misleading, indeed it would be negligent of me to let you continue to use that word with regard to Singapore, without being clear as to what defences they have. They have a very capable long and medium range of coastal artillery, providing an excellent defence against battleship bombardment, although this is somewhat poorer if defending small boat operations, ie MTB’s. The air defence is barely adequate, and shore defence is only present seawards, there is currently no defensive structures covering Singapore Island from the Malaya mainland. Any attack from that direction would meet with no defensive fortifications, they could just walk right in. In addition, given the population that lives on Singapore Island, along with our defensive forces, it is doubtful if we could feed everyone past one month, allowing they are rationed”.

“That’s ridiculous, no, no, are you sure? the gorge of the fortress of Singapore, with its splendid moat half a mile to a mile wide, has not been fortified against an attack from the northward. Why have we not done that, we wouldn’t launch a battleship without a bottom? Why have I not been told this, why haven’t we ever bothered to build any”?

Dill was straight back, his voice beginning to change to a deeper, more insistent tone.

“Prime Minister, I have been continually warning you, Singapore can only be defended by defending Malaya, the days of castles and fortresses are long gone, these days we have to keep the enemy’s air force at arm’s reach. Unless the US Pacific Fleet sails over to Singapore, which they have made clear to us in no uncertain terms, that they won’t, we have to be able to hold Malaya ourselves. You have continually fought me over reinforcing Malaya, questioning every expense, and now we just might have to pay for that policy. Singapore may well fall when they attack!”

Damn the insolence of you Dill, I’ve been fighting this bloody war all by myself, your bloody army hasn’t won anything of value, I won’t have it, Pug, Pug, why wasn’t I informed of Singapore’s defences before now. This is outrageous, what a way to fight a bloody war, incompetence, everywhere, no wonder we’ve been losing!”

Ismay coughed, and lent forward, interrupting “If I may Winston”

Churchill slammed his fist down hard on the table, his face now quite red, “No you bloody well may not Pug, out, get out, all of you, get out this minute, d ’you hear me, out, out, out!”

 

[kelgar04]

This was probably one of the better portrayal of Churchill I've seen in a while.

 

[Fatboy Coxy]

This was probably one of the better portrayal of Churchill I've seen in a while.

Hi Kelgar04, thank you, I've given Field Marshal Dill the balls to speak up, with his future unsure, and Churchill being a vindictive man. The Churchill quote "we wouldn’t launch a battleship without a bottom" is taken from his book The Hinge of Fate.

 

[kelgar04]

Hi Kelgar04, thank you, I've given Field Marshal Dill the balls to speak up, with his future unsure, and Churchill being a vindictive man. The Churchill quote "we wouldn’t launch a battleship without a bottom" is taken from his book The Hinge of Fate.

TBF Churchill had his virtues but also a great many vices and unless you were willing to argue with him or steer him he would get particularly notions stuck in his head.

Also he had views that didn't connect well with reality.

ITTL it's lucky that he has inadvertently assembled a better command team than there was OTL out east which lit a fire under what they had

 

[Ramp-Rat]

So Dill has finally done what he has wanted to do for a long time, and given Winston the dose of reality that he needed. While Winston has for the wrong reason, he wants to get rid of a thorn in his side, done the right thing. At this point in the war Britain needed a change in CICS, and there is no question that Dill was becoming increasingly worn out. His increasingly tempestuous relationship with Winston was seriously getting in the way of him for filling his primary function, as he lacked the ability of his replacement Alan Brooke to manage and massage Winstons massive ego. He and the British intelligence agencies have made one mistake, in their belief that the Japanese are going to assault the British and Dutch possessions in the Far East without including the Americans. The fact that the Japanese are going to attack the Americans and Hitler will jump into the fire by declaring war upon the Americans, which to any sane observer would be total madness. For Dill this will mean that instead of being packed of to a governorship in India, he will instead be sent to Washington as the signor British military representative, a role he filled to the advantage of both the Americans and British fantastically. Winston is going to have much of the weight lifted off his shoulders, and Brooke is going to be in a much stronger position than his two previous CIGS’s. There is no question that the British who started the war questioning how the were going to win, as apposed to the Germans who wondered how the avoided losing. Will have had the question answered, and despite the numerous failures that are going to happen in the next two years, the overwhelming strength of the Americans, Soviets and the British Empire are going to crush the Axis and powers eventually.

RR.

 

[Driftless]

And OTL Dill got re-assigned to Washington DC, where by all accounts, he got on very well with Gen George Marshall, which was very useful.

 

[Mark1878]

So Dill has finally done what he has wanted to do for a long time, and given Winston the dose of reality that he needed. While Winston has for the wrong reason, he wants to get rid of a thorn in his side, done the right thing. At this point in the war Britain needed a change in CICS, and there is no question that Dill was becoming increasingly worn out. His increasingly tempestuous relationship with Winston was seriously getting in the way of him for filling his primary function, as he lacked the ability of his replacement Alan Brooke to manage and massage Winstons massive ego. He and the British intelligence agencies have made one mistake, in their belief that the Japanese are going to assault the British and Dutch possessions in the Far East without including the Americans. The fact that the Japanese are going to attack the Americans and Hitler will jump into the fire by declaring war upon the Americans, which to any sane observer would be total madness. For Dill this will mean that instead of being packed of to a governorship in India, he will instead be sent to Washington as the signor British military representative, a role he filled to the advantage of both the Americans and British fantastically. Winston is going to have much of the weight lifted off his shoulders, and Brooke is going to be in a much stronger position than his two previous CIGS’s. There is no question that the British who started the war questioning how the were going to win, as apposed to the Germans who wondered how the avoided losing. Will have had the question answered, and despite the numerous failures that are going to happen in the next two years, the overwhelming strength of the Americans, Soviets and the British Empire are going to crush the Axis and powers eventually.

RR.

re the Intelligence, That is not necessarily a mistake. The British military has to assume that Japan will only attack them and the Dutch. If they attack America then as Winston says that is a benefit. Also the loss of Malaya might be a price worth paying to have a way to defeat Germany without Russia taking all the Continent.

 

[vl100butch]

And OTL Dill got re-assigned to Washington DC, where by all accounts, he got on very well with Gen George Marshall, which was very useful.

Dill is buried in Arlington National Cemetery...showing the regard and respect he was held by George Marshall.

 

[general]

Just a minor nit, probably an oversight, it would be 'George VI' not George V.

 

[Butchpfd]

So the Americans having woken up and smelled the coffee, have finally decided to do something about the Philippines. Unfortunately not only is it a bit late in the day, but the failures of the present commander to shut up and get on with his job, listen to any voice other than his own, develop a good relationship with his Naval counterpart. Along with trying to develop a working relationship with the British and Dutch military commanders, that sees them as equals, and not just his inferiors be lectured by him on his superior military wisdom, on what is the only way to deal with the growing threat. The problem starts at the very top, with the difference between FDR and Winston, were FDR basically believed that the Japanese were going to be overawed by American might and power, and had surrounded himself with essentially fellow believers. Winston for a his numerous faults had a far more balanced group of advisors, and had been forced to accept some very unpalatable truths. And had despite the limited resources available, put in place a backed a strong team, that was prepared to make the best of what was available to them. Unlike the American/Philippine team, the British/Malay/Chinese team both civil and military were working together, and doing their best with what they had, and trying to develop good relations with the opposite numbers, especially the Dutch to prepare for the oncoming storm.

The basic command team of Governor A Caldecott, General Gort as commander Far East, Admiral Layton as Fleet commander, Park as Commander Air Malaya/Singapore, and Percival as ground commander Malaya/Singapore, have worked well together. And when you add in the numerous improvements made to the civilian administration, much better preparations of the civilian services and population. Unlike in the Philippines where there seems to be very little joined up thinking, or a clear agreed plan of what to do, other than scream at Washington for more resources. The present attempt to reinforce the Philippines is hampered by the American lack of sealift capacity, in comparison to the British. America just doesn’t have the same extensive fleet of Liners and high speed cargo ships that the British do. And not being at war yet, unlike the British, can not just impress civilian ships, but have to arrange charters, either directly or on the commercial shipping exchange. And while the Americans do have a small number of liners surplus to requirements, as their trans Atlantic liners are not in service. There are a number of problems, ships designed for the very challenging conditions of the North Atlantic are not best suited for operating in the mid Pacific, as at this time few would have air conditioning. And unlike the Cunard Queens and other British ships, the essential modifications to change them from peace time liners, and not going to be possible. Not only will their owners be very reluctant to allow these changes, but also the safety regulations will unless the US government is prepared to provide an exemption, prevent these modifications. Note the same license that allowed the Queen Mary to carry 2,000 passengers in peace time, would never allow her to carry 15,740 troops as she did during WWII.

So far to late and with no real consideration of what is really needed, the Americans are trying to bolster their forces in the Philippines. The Americans are sending a major bomber force to the Philippines, without putting in place the necessary facilities in the country to support them or defend them. Where are the all weather airfields, with the protected storage for fuel, ammunition and personnel, and the anti aircraft defences both fighter and gun. To ensure that the bombers have safe and secure bases to operate from, not just muddy fields, lacking infrastructure, and adequate defences against Japanese assaults. No one properly considered what these bombers were for, other than as a theoretical deterrent to the Japanese, even though there was no way for these aircraft to attack Japan. Far better would have been to increase the number of fighters and tactical bombers, plus long range maritime patrol aircraft, all of which would have a real role in the defence of the Philippines. The recently arrived tank formation will not have the time to integrate itself and train with the existing forces, or adapt to the totally different local conditions. Tank formations that have become used to operating on the wide open terrain and spaces of their American training grounds. Are now going to have to get used to the far more restrictive and close conditions of the Philippines, where the enemy can approach you under cover, and subject you to constant ambushes. The failure of his supreme highness the MacArthur, to concentrate on training up the best of the Philippine recruits for the infantry role, but instead wanted to expand the Philippine Army to the greatest size he could. This combined with his self belief that he and only he, truly understood the Asian mind, is going to help in him suffering the near catatonic collapse he did IOTL. Which didn’t help the Americans during the first few days of the Japanese assault, and left the Americans virtually leaderless for a time.

RR.

Re: the American Armored Battalions they had trained at Ft. Knox, Kentucky, and Just prior to departure Fort Polk, Louisiana. They were not totally unused to wooded or swampy terrain, just their new tanks.
Part of the problem was logistics, the Army was so insistent that men and equipment be shipped overseas as soon as possible that they planned poorly shipping. The Pensacola Convoy scheduled to arrive in mid December in Manila, carried a 3 battalion artillery Brigade of truck towed 75 mm Pack Howitzers and their ammunition and personnel also included were 48 British 75mm (13lbr) guns left over from WW I also including tons of rifle, machine gun mortar and AAA ammunition. However the men of the artillery brigade were in separate ships from their guns and trucks, and the ammunition on a 3rd ship. The trucks and guns were crate shipped. OTL when thee convoy arrived at Brisbane the Brigade commander insisted that all the brigade's equipment personnel and ammunition be unloaded and then combat loaded prior to movement to Java. This took almost 2 weeks.
Also in the Pensacola Convoy were 18 P-40Es and 54 A-24 disassembeled. The convoy carried the planes and aircrews, but the ground crews to assemble and service the planes arrived in the Philippines earlier with the Boise Convoy.
As to long range patrol planes Hart had 2 over sized squadrons of PBYs, one mixed utility squadron of J2f-2 & 3, OS2U-3, and SOC-3s . A bigger issue was Mac Arthur who as Commander U.S. Forces Far East forbid any aircraft or submarine recon of Formosa, within sight of the Island.

 

[Ramp-Rat]

Unfortunately the American forces ITTL as IOTL, were operating under pre war peace time conditions. So it made sense to send the ground crews for the new squadrons ahead of the aircraft and the aircrews, as it would allow them time to acclimatise and prepare for the arrival and assembly of their aircraft. In the same way separating equipment and personnel, so as to make best use of the limited shipping capacity, was given the decline of the American merchant marine in the twenties and thirties vital. It wasn’t as if the Americans could ask the British to lend them ships, to facilitate this move, one the British were short of shipping themselves, and two they had incredibly few shipping assets in the Pacific. It took some time for the Americans with their limited experience of military shipping in war time, to get their act together, l note that IOTL, they were still having issues during the Guadalcanal operation. As for MacArthus probation on American aircraft and submarines conducting surveillance of Formosa and I believe FIC as well, from doing so within sight of land, whatever the reason this was foolish. As contrasts with the British approach ITTL, were photo recognisance flights are being sent over FIC, to provide updated information on Japanese preparations. The Americans seriously took their eye off the ball pre war in the Philippines, and seemed to do everything to make a bad situation worse. From the ever increasing pressure from Washington on the Japanese, the transfer of their Pacific Fleet to the base in Hawaii which was seriously underdeveloped at the time, and the failure to support the Philippines adequately, and make it a major obstacle to Japanese expansion. There can be no doubt that the Americans leadership had problems, and their actions in the Philippines go a long way to proving this.

RR.

 

[DDM]

Unfortunately the American forces ITTL as IOTL, were operating under pre war peace time conditions. So it made sense to send the ground crews for the new squadrons ahead of the aircraft and the aircrews, as it would allow them time to acclimatise and prepare for the arrival and assembly of their aircraft. In the same way separating equipment and personnel, so as to make best use of the limited shipping capacity, was given the decline of the American merchant marine in the twenties and thirties vital. It wasn’t as if the Americans could ask the British to lend them ships, to facilitate this move, one the British were short of shipping themselves, and two they had incredibly few shipping assets in the Pacific. It took some time for the Americans with their limited experience of military shipping in war time, to get their act together, l note that IOTL, they were still having issues during the Guadalcanal operation. As for MacArthus probation on American aircraft and submarines conducting surveillance of Formosa and I believe FIC as well, from doing so within sight of land, whatever the reason this was foolish. As contrasts with the British approach ITTL, were photo recognisance flights are being sent over FIC, to provide updated information on Japanese preparations. The Americans seriously took their eye off the ball pre war in the Philippines, and seemed to do everything to make a bad situation worse. From the ever increasing pressure from Washington on the Japanese, the transfer of their Pacific Fleet to the base in Hawaii which was seriously underdeveloped at the time, and the failure to support the Philippines adequately, and make it a major obstacle to Japanese expansion. There can be no doubt that the Americans leadership had problems, and their actions in the Philippines go a long way to proving this.

RR.

To be fair as has been pointed out up until August 1941 the policy for the Philippines was to retreat to Bataan and hold out for 6 months. Once this policy changed the lack of shipping came into play. Adding to this lack of shipping was the decision to aid British forces by using 6 large troop ships and an escort force to transport the 18th division originally to the middle east but later changed to Singapore.

 

[freelander]

OK folks some input from the American Navy position.. In September 1939 when Admiral Thomas Hart relieved Admiral Yarnall as CinC Asiatic Fleet( CinCAF) they discussed Japanese intentions and Yarnall passed on to Hart, that in his opinion, Japan based on their actions in China and Shanghai, would have no problem going to war with the Western colonial powers. Hart was forced by Japanese actions to spend most of the fall of 1939 in Shanghai putting out fires, Especially once the war in Europe broke out and Britain and France started drawing down their forces in China.

As a note: Thomas Hart and Douglas Mac Arthur had been personal friends of 40 years, Mac Arthur's late brother Arthur was Hart's best friend. Hart was one of 3 people who could regularly call Mac Arthur, Douglas, the others being George Marshall, and Franklin Roosevelt.

On his arrival in the Philippines in December and meeting with Mac Arthur he mentioned to Captain, later Adm Purnell, his Chief of Staff, " There's something wrong with Douglas". Sadly the friendship would be downhill from there.
Hart tried to talk to Mac Arthur about the situation with Japan and MacArthur and Mac Arthur blew him off. His concern being the raising of his Philippine Army and his bonus for the men raised.
Mac Arthur was ego driven, and has the best PR of any General. His skills a general was based on WW I and was competent to good. His actions as Chief of Staff and the Bonus March put a permanent moral stain on his record, especially disobeying orders about burning the camps. Even if retired
. General Grount, the then, 1940, commander of U.S. Forces in the Philippines agreed with Yarnall and Hart.

Sources:

A Different Kind of Victory: A Biography of Admiral Thomas C. Hart​

War in the Pacific: End of the Asiatic Fleet and the Classified Report of Admiral Thomas C. Hart​

Spot on the only thing Doug out Doug was interested in was him self how he got the Medal of Honour is beyond me.

 

[Cryhavoc101]

To be fair as has been pointed out up until August 1941 the policy for the Philippines was to retreat to Bataan and hold our for 6 months. Once this policy changed the lack of shipping came into play. Adding to this lack of shipping was the decision to aid British forces by using 6 large troop ships and an escort force to transport the 18th division originally to the middle east but later changed to Singapore.

Everyone thought they would have more time

And as for lack of shipping over 1 million tons of stuff promised the Philippine army was still in the USA on 7th Dec not sure what difference 6 ships would have made?

 

[DDM]

Spot on the only thing Doug out Doug was interested in was him self how he got the Medal of Honour is beyond me.

It was given to him for morale purposes as the holding out in Bataan was the only positive news for the US at that time.

 

[Butchpfd]

Everyone thought they would have more time

And as for lack of shipping over 1 million tons of stuff promised the Philippine army was still in the USA on 7th Dec not sure what difference 6 ships would have made?

Not really, the USN knew war was coming, and coming much sooner then the Army, thanks to Mac Arthur's wildly optimistic intelligence estimates. Hart was working from information from his Navy and Marine personnel in China, shipping movements, as well as intercepts and translations received by Station CAST. Adm. Hart passed this information on to Mac Arthur and Adm. Stark. Stark agreed with Hart but despite their friendship( deteoriating fast) Mac Arthur believed his own interpretation sources, including all translations and decodings from Washington.

Hart with the approval of Adm. Stark made the decision in August 1940 to send to Hawaii or stateside all Navy and Marine dependents. The only exemption were the wives 7 or more months pregnant, those wives were sent home as soon as they could travel after delivery. As per his diary Hart had made arrangements in case of a very early outbreak of war or escalation of danger, to send these wives out by Clipper or PBY,
By late Spring 1941, the Navy had updated their version of War Plan Orange to WPO-D3, which called for the surface combatants of the Asiatic Fleet withdraw to it's Southern anchorages Cebu, Davo or Puerto Princessa, or if necessary the DEI, leaving only small craft, gunboats and submarines operating from Manila bay. At the same time Mac Arthur made the decision on his own to forward defend Luzon at the invasion bases.

 

[Nevarinemex]

Not really, the USN knew war was coming, and coming much sooner then the Army, thanks to Mac Arthur's wildly optimistic intelligence estimates. Hart was working from information from his Navy and Marine personnel in China, shipping movements, as well as intercepts and translations received by Station CAST. Adm. Hart passed this information on to Mac Arthur and Adm. Stark. Stark agreed with Hart but despite their friendship( deteoriating fast) Mac Arthur believed his own interpretation sources, including all translations and decodings from Washington.

Hart with the approval of Adm. Stark made the decision in August 1940 to send to Hawaii or stateside all Navy and Marine dependents. The only exemption were the wives 7 or more months pregnant, those wives were sent home as soon as they could travel after delivery. As per his diary Hart had made arrangements in case of a very early outbreak of war or escalation of danger, to send these wives out by Clipper or PBY,
By late Spring 1941, the Navy had updated their version of War Plan Orange to WPO-D3, which called for the surface combatants of the Asiatic Fleet withdraw to it's Southern anchorages Cebu, Davo or Puerto Princessa, or if necessary the DEI, leaving only small craft, gunboats and submarines operating from Manila bay. At the same time Mac Arthur made the decision on his own to forward defend Luzon at the invasion bases.

I like that this scenario offers a comparison and contrast component. There is the modified timeline, where the Commonwealth is not as inept. On the other hand, the US holds mainly to course. The ABDA scenario has a chance for a limited success. The PI scenario has the forlorn hope to hold out for four to six months. Isandlwana or Little Bighorn come to mind as the final result.

 

[Driftless]

^^^ Maybe ITTL its Rorke's Drift and Little Big Horn (OR, The Battle of the Greasy Grass - as the victors called it)

 

[DDM]

I like that this scenario offers a comparison and contrast component. There is the modified timeline, where the Commonwealth is not as inept. On the other hand, the US holds mainly to course. The ABDA scenario has a chance for a limited success. The PI scenario has the forlorn hope to hold out for four to six months. Isandlwana or Little Bighorn come to mind as the final result.

The only potential way to improve the Phillipines realistically would be after the Japanese take part of Indo China in 1940 to have the reserves called up by class for training and shipping ww1 weapons to arm them. As each class will disband after training and the weapons are old diplomatically it is a warning not a threat. Then in 1941 when called up again you are not starting from zero. Even then this doesn't change Pearl Harbor and the fact that they are cut off. Just means they may inflict greater losses on the Japanese. They still won't holdout that much longer since the God Emperor will still want to defend the beaches even though he doesn't have the forces and so won't stock the peninsula properly. Starvation and disease will still take their toll. Due to better training and armament may last maybe another month at best.