Keynes' Cruisers Volume 2

[Viper91]

If the IJN is greatly reduced after the Battle of Makassar Strait there is nothing to stop the Allies from continuing the DEI campaign. The retaking of the Celebes and Borneo and the heavy suppression of Japanese air bases in the places not immediately retaken will proceed through 1943. This leads into a relief operation to begin the liberation of Luzon in 4Q 1943. From Luzon air raids on the Home Islands, Formosa and Southern China can begin. There will still be plenty for the US Marine Corp to do in TTL.

More then likely you will see an earlier version of Flintlock in the next six months to clear the Marshalls. Clear that, raid Truk, and then clear the Marianas.

The main things right now aren't so much clearing the Japanese away so much as finally getting sufficient forces to the Pacific to actually conduct an offensive. 4Q landings in the Philippines might be a stretch, but I think it's definitely safe to say they will be liberated at least 3 to 6 months sooner then OTL.

 

[AlanJWhite]

The main things right now aren't so much clearing the Japanese away so much as finally getting sufficient forces to the Pacific to actually conduct an offensive.

True for retaking .. but consider the impact on the Japanese Logistics even at this date in this timeline

Burma and Malaya are already in British hands. Taking even a small slice of southern Thailand secures this.

In addition the Dutch East Indies have not completely fallen.
Given the newly established Allied Naval/Air strength they can be cleared soon.
Under that same umbrella they will be garrisoned with relatively few men.

At that point, the Japanese have effectively no supplies of oil and few of other key war materials.
Worse .. the Allied submarine force can move north from the approaches of the DEI
- perhaps as far north as Japanese home waters.

The "wither on the vine" will be much quicker and much harsher and more widespread

 

[Cryhavoc101]

Closest I can say is that it took a lot more than three to put Bismarck and Scharnhorst on the bottom. Nonetheless, they were doomed by shellfire first.

Bismarck maybe and arguably it was the stern torpedo hit that doomed her by slowing her but as for Scharnhorst she was certainly hit by a number of torpedoes (as was Yamato) but at what point were they torpedoing a dead ship?

 

[Draconis]

True for retaking .. but consider the impact on the Japanese Logistics even at this date in this timeline

Burma and Malaya are already in British hands. Taking even a small slice of southern Thailand secures this.

In addition the Dutch East Indies have not completely fallen.
Given the newly established Allied Naval/Air strength they can be cleared soon.
Under that same umbrella they will be garrisoned with relatively few men.

At that point, the Japanese have effectively no supplies of oil and few of other key war materials.
Worse .. the Allied submarine force can move north from the approaches of the DEI
- perhaps as far north as Japanese home waters.

The "wither on the vine" will be much quicker and much harsher and more widespread

Precisely. So why waste lives and resources taking some pointless and useless little islands (in this timeline) in the middle of nowhere when there are more critical and strategically useful objectives.
I wonder what Chester Nimitz would do in this timeline.

 

[historyfelon]

Precisely. So why waste lives and resources taking some pointless and useless little islands (in this timeline) in the middle of nowhere when there are more critical and strategically useful objectives.
I wonder what Chester Nimitz would do in this timeline.

Right Why "Island Hop"..storming fortified islands that contained no resources, that were simply stepping stones to get close enough to the home islands and to the areas of the Empire that contained vital resources..when we are already fighting in the heart of those islands and in SE Asia? These are areas that in the OTL weren't entered for another year, if at all. We don't need to occupy all the islands in order to deny their use to the japanese. Once the Celebes is occupied and the air bases on Borneo neutralized we can move north..to Mindanao or Palawan..then on to Luzon and, perhaps, Formosa. We may need to take Guam and Palau. The question is, if we find ourselves approaching the Home Islands in mid '44 do we still waste lives on Iwo Jima and Okinawa while waiting for the Atomic Bomb, they have no access to oil or other vital resources, do we put a blockade on them and just starve them until the bomb is ready? Or is it determined by what's happening in Europe? Winning faster in Asia could be a real problem.

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

The question is, if we find ourselves approaching the Home Islands in mid '44 do we still waste lives on Iwo Jima and Okinawa while waiting for the Atomic Bomb, they have no access to oil or other vital resources, do we put a blockade on them and just starve them until the bomb is ready?

Of course, the B29 isn't ready for prime time yet, and if you're going to bomb Japan with B17, you NEED a close airbase.

 

[Draconis]

Of course, the B29 isn't ready for prime time yet, and if you're going to bomb Japan with B17, you NEED a close airbase.

Luzon. B-24s can reach as far as Kyushu in the Home Islands as well as Formosa, Southern China and French Indochina. With special mods B-24s could reach Honshu. From Luzon when B-29s become available they would be able to reach everywhere in Japan, China, Korea and Manchuria.

 

[fester]

Western Makassar Strait, 1445 January 2, 1943

Much like a miser hoarding gold coins, the skipper of USS Gato sought every opportunity to increase his charge and refresh his air. A squall was passing overhead and the pitter patter of raindrops had blanketed his hydrophones with useless noise. He saw nothing in a fast scan of the horizon through the periscope and within a minute, the submarine broke the surface. Men scrambled to their lookout positions. The surface search radar started to spin and seek the enemy. Diesel engines kicked over and power went both to the screws and to the batteries.


The radar operator saw very little. The rain limited the effective range of the radar to perhaps half of what he should have been able to see on a clear night. Thirty thousand yards away, a damaged heavy cruiser continued to limp north.

 

[fester]

Eastern Makassar Strait, 1450 January 2, 1943


Stricken Saratoga’s fighters were just ahead and above the full strength Avenger squadron. Just behind the torpedo bombers and eight thousand feet above the primary shipkillers were eighteen Dauntlesses. The half score of Wildcats turned into the six Zeroes from Soryu that had started to make a beam attack on the torpedo bombers. Ten solidly built fighters came in at the 1 o’clock position against the defending fighters. Three Zeroes responded to the danger that was coming onto them while the other three pressed in against the Avengers. Their cannons opened up outside the range of the rear gunners’ machine guns. And then the escorting Wildcats started to fire.


More Japanese fighters were starting to respond to the Tally-ho. American fighters that had a momentary numerical advantage were now getting swarmed. As fifteen Zeroes forced the Wildcats to fight for their lives instead of the lives of the Avengers and Dauntlesses, eleven other Zeroes sent three Avengers into the ocean in the first pass. Four dive bombers were flamed and then a quartet of Wildcats slammed into the sea. The strike was dissolving even before the planes entered anti-aircraft guns’ range.


Slightly further west, forty two aircraft from Lexington were unmolested. Eight Wildcats rolled over and went to assist their fellows even as four more Wildcats stayed high and ready. By the time that they could intervene, half of Saratoga’s strike had been shot down.


Seven Avengers descended to their attack height. Every gun in the Japanese screen focused on them. Akagi was starting to twist like a cat in heat. Her light anti-aircraft guns claimed another two torpedo bombers before they dropped. She shimmied and shook as eight dive bombers tipped over. The five torpedoes that dropped ran straight and true but the nine hundred yard attack run was further than recommended. Two were obvious misses, and another failed to run straight. The other two tracks were neatly combed. Even as Akagi dodged the torpedoes, seven bombs missed her. One struck a few feet from her bow and it did not explode until it was outside the hull.


Saratoga’s failure did not matter. Lexington’s Avengers and Dauntlesses were able to deliver an almost unmolested textbook attack. Seven Avengers became the hammer against six attackers on the anvil. Even as they pressed home their attack to 500 yards, Soryu was on fire from two bombs that had struck her from VS-2. VB-2 did not start their dives until Soryu started to list from two torpedoes that ripped into her flank. Four more bombs demolished the hanger deck and island of the carrier. Half a dozen Zeroes attempted to jump the eggressing bombers but the reserve fighters gave the low level bombers time to run.

 

[RyderWest]

Goodbye Soryu! You will not be missed.

 

[Alanith]

Another one bites the Dust. Poor IJN damage control strikes again!

 

[Draconis]

That's the first Allied strike package from TF-17. Soryu probably sunk and certainly mission killed. Akagi minor damage. More Zeros shot down. The second strike from TF-16 should be arriving within the hour. It's a somewhat larger force and it will be facing a slightly reduced airborne defense. Well, we'll see.

 

[NHBL]

This is a bad day for the Empire of Japan. A rising sun and a setting sun look much alike in a still picture...

 

[Viper91]

Right Why "Island Hop"..storming fortified islands that contained no resources, that were simply stepping stones to get close enough to the home islands and to the areas of the Empire that contained vital resources..when we are already fighting in the heart of those islands and in SE Asia? These are areas that in the OTL weren't entered for another year, if at all. We don't need to occupy all the islands in order to deny their use to the japanese. Once the Celebes is occupied and the air bases on Borneo neutralized we can move north..to Mindanao or Palawan..then on to Luzon and, perhaps, Formosa. We may need to take Guam and Palau. The question is, if we find ourselves approaching the Home Islands in mid '44 do we still waste lives on Iwo Jima and Okinawa while waiting for the Atomic Bomb, they have no access to oil or other vital resources, do we put a blockade on them and just starve them until the bomb is ready? Or is it determined by what's happening in Europe? Winning faster in Asia could be a real problem.

Logistics, logistics, and more importantly, logistics.

Securing the Marshalls in OTL gave CINCPAC vital forward bases for ships to stage out of and conduct major repair and refit work without having to travel literally several thousand miles further east to Pearl Harbor or the various shipyards along the west coast. From there, there's nothing standing in the way of US operations to sieze Guam or other areas of the Marianas, and it makes a straight line run to the Philippines from another angle possible.

It would also make a good practice for CINCPAC as well. While the Japanese haven't been successful ITTL, the US also hasn't learned some of the OTL lessons they needed to improve going forward, lessons that could still come back to bite here. You're also making the classic mistake of looking at the timeline from a 21st century point of view. We know the Japanese are pretty much falling apart at this point. Look at is from the point of view of a 1943 officer, success is possible, but as we've seen here, it's not going to be cheap, and the Japanese can and will still land blows going forward.

 

[terv]

the allies have a field army already Luzon the problem is that army needs a better supply line and access to the southern islands to provide the replacements needed to bring said army back to combat strength.

 

[historyfelon]

Logistics, logistics, and more importantly, logistics.

Securing the Marshalls in OTL gave CINCPAC vital forward bases for ships to stage out of and conduct major repair and refit work without having to travel literally several thousand miles further east to Pearl Harbor or the various shipyards along the west coast. From there, there's nothing standing in the way of US operations to sieze Guam or other areas of the Marianas, and it makes a straight line run to the Philippines from another angle possible.

It would also make a good practice for CINCPAC as well. While the Japanese haven't been successful ITTL, the US also hasn't learned some of the OTL lessons they needed to improve going forward, lessons that could still come back to bite here. You're also making the classic mistake of looking at the timeline from a 21st century point of view. We know the Japanese are pretty much falling apart at this point. Look at is from the point of view of a 1943 officer, success is possible, but as we've seen here, it's not going to be cheap, and the Japanese can and will still land blows going forward.

Since we still hold Wake, and Midway is safe, wouldn't taking Guam and Palau satisfy the logistics problem. Especially since we have access to Singapore. I think the importance of seizing the DEI and returning to the Philippines shortens the war...although we return to my point of outracing the development of the A-Bomb. Do we then proceed with an invasion of Kyushu..or after Okinawa...skipping Iwo if we come up from the PI's? Sorry, my ADD addled brain races off in too many directions.

 

[MageOhki]

Thats very disengenuous - West Virginia Sunk at Pearl and took 6 months to refloat and a further 2 years to rebuild - while her ultimate survival and subsequant rebuild is remarkable as was the DC efforts on the day she did sink and had she done so at sea rather than bottoming out in the harbour then she would have become a war grave.

I am unaware of any warship in WW2 that survived 3+ torpedo hits "AT SEA" - happy to be corrected

The *torpedo* quality matters. A Type 91 (current IJN air dropped) is *not* a Type 93 Long Lance. Two 93's(Long Lances), aka what nailed Minny, which survived (and served longer) is more TorpEx than four Type 91's.

So, kindly, rethink the 'three torpedoes' The capabilities of said torps matter. Type 91, rev 3 (maybe) has 235kg, vs a Type 93's 490. Bit of a difference, no? In Effect, the TDS stopped cold the first one, then the next two did the damage, so in primus, Lexy ate one Type 93. (To be fair, I don't think there's *been* any US ship in WW2 hit with only 3 Type 91's, Much less capital ships)

So, Lexy, with *far* superior TDS, hits *on* her armor belt, took half the payload of Minny, who didn't have as good of a TDS, as well as took the hits in far weaker armor.

For a more apples to apples comparison, I suggest you look at Hornet's (CV-8's) death: Two Type 91's, 3 Val dropped bombs, a kamikaze strike. That's what shut her down. Then she ate *another* Type 91 as she was being towed. That's when she was abandoned due to belief of oncoming (correctly) surface IJN forces), ate 400 rounds of 5" plus a few (it's unclear how *many* worked) Type 15's (USN), and *then* finally 4 Type 93's. Not Type 91. Yes, Lexy is a older design, but is as subdivided, more tonnage, and a equal or maybe slightly *better* TDS.

Note: This is all predicated on Lexy getting OUT of the zone without taking more hits. Sara's likely already under power and limping home.


Think about that.

 

[AlanJWhite]

The *torpedo* quality matters. A Type 91 (current IJN air dropped) is *not* a Type 93 Long Lance. Two 93's(Long Lances), aka what nailed Minny, which survived (and served longer) is more TorpEx than four Type 91's.

Agree that quality mattered, the standard measure being the TNT equivalent.

TNT is what the USN had in 1942
(the airdropped Mk 13 air 178 Kg, the S Boat Mk 10 225 kg , the ubiquitous Mk 14 230 kg)

At the same date the Japanese used their own mix formula 97, rated at 5-10% better than TNT (and more stable)
In general they also had much larger warheads
(the airdropped Type 91 240kg, the Sub launched Type 550 kg , the surface launched Type 91 490kg)

In 1942, one IJN torpedo was worth nearly 2 USN fish (more so given the slow speed of the US Mk 13, the scarcity of the MK10 and the terrible reliability of the Mk 14)

After 1942, both sides increased warhead size
(e.g. Type 91 Mod 7 320 Kg , Mk 13 Mod 10 274 Kg)

The USN also got better explosives (including the British developed Torpex - rated at 50% better than TNT)
but the WW2 Japanese did NOT have Torpex or any of the other improved mixtures like HBX

 

[Cryhavoc101]

Just to drag the converation away from the relative efficiencies of WW2 torpedoes (which is facinating BTW) and back onto the story line.

I was just looked at the map of the battle and I cannot recall if Ambon fell to the intial Japanese attacks?

And if it did and the runway is in operation by IJN and or IJA aircraft - my next very loaded question would be "what are the US Marine Raiders and Aussie Commandos doing right now?"

 

[Driftless]

Logistics, logistics, and more importantly, logistics.

Securing the Marshalls in OTL gave CINCPAC vital forward bases for ships to stage out of and conduct major repair and refit work without having to travel literally several thousand miles further east to Pearl Harbor or the various shipyards along the west coast. From there, there's nothing standing in the way of US operations to sieze Guam or other areas of the Marianas, and it makes a straight line run to the Philippines from another angle possible.

It would also make a good practice for CINCPAC as well. While the Japanese haven't been successful ITTL, the US also hasn't learned some of the OTL lessons they needed to improve going forward, lessons that could still come back to bite here. You're also making the classic mistake of looking at the timeline from a 21st century point of view. We know the Japanese are pretty much falling apart at this point. Look at is from the point of view of a 1943 officer, success is possible, but as we've seen here, it's not going to be cheap, and the Japanese can and will still land blows going forward.

How does the logistic situation of this timeline compare to historic? Singapore and the southern DEI are in allied hands and the oil fields on Borneo are in striking distance. The center of the fight is much farther west and north than in our historic time. I believe WPO called for a drive through the Central Pacific to regain the Philippines and Guam, but does that still fit?