Keynes' Cruisers Volume 2

[David Floyd]

Looks like the Japanese air wings have been decimated at minimal cost to Allied air wings. TF 17 is out of the fight, but 7 carriers remain - 4 with night strike capability- with mostly intact air wings.

The IJN is going to take a terrible beating.

 

[formion]

What is the status of Hiryu? Has Nagumo sent her back with escort or is she still struggling with damage control? It seemed that the damage control teams were fighting a losing battle.

One last question: By this time how have the positions of Kido Butai, Main Body and Allied Fleet have changed?

 

[MageOhki]

Lexy is safe.

As long as she *doesn't* take any more hits. American Damage control (and even though Lexy and Saga are WW1 BC's, they *were* stopped, and refitted into CV's *after* the first lessons (and the US was better at this than the UK, anyways, and *remained* better, even more) of German Shipbuilding were known, and have undergone *several* refits.

What killed Lexy in OTL *was fire* She died (and it's how America learned about fuel line issues) to an internal FAE. 4 Torps on Lexy, even losing some of her engine rooms, *isn't death*

It does mean she'll be out for more than a year, and Sara six or so months. Remember, Sara and Lexy (like the Yorkies, and the Essexs, though less so) had their strength/armor deck *below* the hanger. So, while Sara's hurt, she *is* much faster to repair. Take a look at some of Enterprise's or Saga's own OTL damage, and how fast she was back in the line.

 

[Killer in]

Well when those planes return to their carriers if there are any left the stories of that AA barrage will haunt the survivors for years to come.

 

[NORGCO]

Well when those planes return to their carriers if there are any left the stories of that AA barrage will haunt the survivors for years to come.

Or it will at least haunt them for the rest of their lives ... however many days, hours or minutes that is with multiple allied carriers capable of day AND night strikes hunting them, plus land based air, submarines, some battleships etc.

 

[StevoJH]

Lexy is safe.

As long as she *doesn't* take any more hits. American Damage control (and even though Lexy and Saga are WW1 BC's, they *were* stopped, and refitted into CV's *after* the first lessons (and the US was better at this than the UK, anyways, and *remained* better, even more) of German Shipbuilding were known, and have undergone *several* refits.

What killed Lexy in OTL *was fire* She died (and it's how America learned about fuel line issues) to an internal FAE. 4 Torps on Lexy, even losing some of her engine rooms, *isn't death*

It does mean she'll be out for more than a year, and Sara six or so months. Remember, Sara and Lexy (like the Yorkies, and the Essexs, though less so) had their strength/armor deck *below* the hanger. So, while Sara's hurt, she *is* much faster to repair. Take a look at some of Enterprise's or Saga's own OTL damage, and how fast she was back in the line.

Lexington took 3 torpedo hits on one side of this ship in the region of the engine rooms.

Even in the unlikely even that damage control efforts keep her alive temporarily, she will probably have to be have to be scuttled when the fleet withdraws.

Personally I think she's on a one way trip to the bottom of the ocean in short order.

 

[andys]

Lexington took 3 torpedo hits on one side of this ship in the region of the engine rooms.

Even in the unlikely even that damage control efforts keep her alive temporarily, she will probably have to be have to be scuttled when the fleet withdraws.

Personally I think she's on a one way trip to the bottom of the ocean in short order.

Still, one carrier in exchange for a very significant percentage of the IJN is a good trade.

 

[Cryhavoc101]

Lexington took 3 torpedo hits on one side of this ship in the region of the engine rooms.

Even in the unlikely even that damage control efforts keep her alive temporarily, she will probably have to be have to be scuttled when the fleet withdraws.

Personally I think she's on a one way trip to the bottom of the ocean in short order.

I sadly agree - I cannot think of a ship that took 3 fish (in a single action) and survived in WW2 - I know some vessels took more hits but that was likely overkill in every case.

 

[AlanJWhite]

What killed Lexy in OTL *was fire* She died (and it's how America learned about fuel line issues) to an internal FAE.

True in OTL but iTTL have they learned the lesson so well?
In any case Saratoga is just as vulnerable to misjudged damage control as her sister.
50:50 on survival at best

I sadly agree - I cannot think of a ship that took 3 fish (in a single action) and survived in WW2 - I know some vessels took more hits but that was likely overkill in every case.

The problem with the Lexington has is the design of it's propulsion system and it's vulnerability to shock vs a torpedo.
iOTL that proved a problem for Saratoga at least twice.
Admittedly OTL these were 21" sub launched not air dropped 17.7" but only as a single hit whereas this time it's multiple
10:90 against survival

she will probably have to be have to be scuttled when the fleet withdraws.

and that is the crux. Somervile can't stay indefinitely exposed to land based air and submarine threats
(beside there is other work to be done)
20:80 against being able to stay for more than another day

IMHO both L & S are going to be lost like other badly damaged US carriers in perilous circumstances
sunk by culmulative damge like OTL Lex
scuttled like Wasp
"Yorktowned" by a sub
or simply abandoned like Hornet.

 

[AtlanticCanuck]

About this time in OTL the Americans used the lessons from Midway and Coral Sea to design the successor class to the Essex: The Midway class. They eventually decided that the British armoured deck was a good idea. And maybe more torpedo protection was a good idea to! It seems in this TL, the lesson about armour will have been driven home much more quickly. On the same day in the same battle, under the same conditions the un-armoured carrier was damaged (maybe sunk, we don't know yet) while the armoured carrier stayed in the battle. No one on the American side can reasonably argue that the British carriers were fighting under different conditions, didn't have to face the IJN, etc, etc. So might the Midway class ships be seen earlier than September1945?

 

[MageOhki]

*sigh* I strongly suggest you study the New Orleans class cruisers before you write Sara and Lexy off. In fact, look at *Sara's* Own career in OTL. This might be the first time in *this* timeline she's taken these hits, but again, I repeat: Her strength deck is below the hanger deck. More Fragile than the Yorkies and Essexes? Yep. But her armored hull is intact.

As long as they're towed out of the damage zone, they're fine. These *aren't* sub torpedoes, these are air dropped, smaller warheads, and on *bigger* ships than the US Battle line at Pearl. Yes, Lexy is *badly* hurt, but as long as she *does not* take more ships, she's *not* liable to sink. She's very well subdivided, and she *was* at action stations.

3 fish (Lexy and Sara had the same basic TDS as Standards.) in the same area, is *not* enough to sink a Lexy or a Standard. West Virginia took 7, remember? I really don't think most people *get* how good US DamCon *is*, even on this board.

While yes, what befell Sara is going to be clearly (to be fair, the Midway was actually in design BEFORE battles, and a strength/armored deck on top of the hanger was being considered, given the success of Wasp's side elevator, since they didn't have to worry about lifting an armored deck piece up and down, or having part of the armor belt weakened.) instrumental on the Midway's adoption, but remember, this is *still* very much early days of the US shaking off the basic concept that carriers are *not survivable*

As for survivability: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Minneapolis_(CA-36)
I suggest you realize that Minny took *2* true Type 93's.

And I suggest you also read the damage done to Nevada from *one* of the same torps that nailed Lexy.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Nevada_(BB-36)


You were saying?

 

[Cryhavoc101]

*sigh* I strongly suggest you study the New Orleans class cruisers before you write Sara and Lexy off. In fact, look at *Sara's* Own career in OTL. This might be the first time in *this* timeline she's taken these hits, but again, I repeat: Her strength deck is below the hanger deck. More Fragile than the Yorkies and Essexes? Yep. But her armored hull is intact.

As long as they're towed out of the damage zone, they're fine. These *aren't* sub torpedoes, these are air dropped, smaller warheads, and on *bigger* ships than the US Battle line at Pearl. Yes, Lexy is *badly* hurt, but as long as she *does not* take more ships, she's *not* liable to sink. She's very well subdivided, and she *was* at action stations.

3 fish (Lexy and Sara had the same basic TDS as Standards.) in the same area, is *not* enough to sink a Lexy or a Standard. West Virginia took 7, remember? I really don't think most people *get* how good US DamCon *is*, even on this board.

While yes, what befell Sara is going to be clearly (to be fair, the Midway was actually in design BEFORE battles, and a strength/armored deck on top of the hanger was being considered, given the success of Wasp's side elevator, since they didn't have to worry about lifting an armored deck piece up and down, or having part of the armor belt weakened.) instrumental on the Midway's adoption, but remember, this is *still* very much early days of the US shaking off the basic concept that carriers are *not survivable*

As for survivability: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Minneapolis_(CA-36)
I suggest you realize that Minny took *2* true Type 93's.

And I suggest you also read the damage done to Nevada from *one* of the same torps that nailed Lexy.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Nevada_(BB-36)


You were saying?

Thats very disengenuous - West Virginia Sunk at Pearl and took 6 months to refloat and a further 2 years to rebuild - while her ultimate survival and subsequant rebuild is remarkable as was the DC efforts on the day she did sink and had she done so at sea rather than bottoming out in the harbour then she would have become a war grave.

I am unaware of any warship in WW2 that survived 3+ torpedo hits "AT SEA" - happy to be corrected

 

[Marquis]

I am unaware of any warship in WW2 that survived 3+ torpedo hits "AT SEA" - happy to be corrected.

Closest I can say is that it took a lot more than three to put Bismarck and Scharnhorst on the bottom. Nonetheless, they were doomed by shellfire first.

 

[Alanith]

Well it seems the KB has shot its bolt. If the USN and RN plays its cards right, they can savage the IJN in near complete safety now.

 

[sloreck]

Japanese naval aviation has taken a huge hit. Between fighters and AAA they have lost a significant percentage of their aircraft over the targets, and for sure they will lose some damaged birds on the way back. When the KB gets hit by air strikes, even more aircrew will die. I doubt there will be enough aircrew to equip even one balanced large carrier air group when this is finished. By the time this fighting ois over with the IJN is gutted and the RN and USN will shortly have free rein, much sooner than OTL. What this will mean, I expect, is that while island hopping in the Central pacific will still be needed, some of the islands that were assaulted OTL will join the list of the bypassed to whither on the vine.

 

[Alanith]

Japanese naval aviation has taken a huge hit. Between fighters and AAA they have lost a significant percentage of their aircraft over the targets, and for sure they will lose some damaged birds on the way back. When the KB gets hit by air strikes, even more aircrew will die. I doubt there will be enough aircrew to equip even one balanced large carrier air group when this is finished. By the time this fighting ois over with the IJN is gutted and the RN and USN will shortly have free rein, much sooner than OTL. What this will mean, I expect, is that while island hopping in the Central pacific will still be needed, some of the islands that were assaulted OTL will join the list of the bypassed to whither on the vine.

Indeed, and depending on just how badly hit the IJN is, some more relief expeditions to Bataan may be plausible if the only threats are limited land based air assets and submarine attack.

 

[NHBL]

A relief effort to Bataan could even be uses as bait to draw out what Japan has left...

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

The bombers were crossing from right to left underneath the bombers at 11 o’clock

Bombers crossing under bombers?

few Japanese pilots broke. The six surviving dive bombers from the damaged Hiryu failed. Their discipline was aluminum instead of iron.

I have no clue what you mean by this.

. That minute would prove forgiving

Unforgiving, I'm pretty sure you meant.

 

[fester]

Bombers crossing under bombers?


I have no clue what you mean by this.


Unforgiving, I'm pretty sure you meant.

Updated the crossing.

Iron discipline vs lighter/weaker aluminum strength

The minute was forgiving as Indomitable could shrug off hits that would CTL Furious and send Ark Royal to the yard for three months.

 

[Draconis]

What this will mean, I expect, is that while island hopping in the Central pacific will still be needed, some of the islands that were assaulted OTL will join the list of the bypassed to whither on the vine.

If the IJN is greatly reduced after the Battle of Makassar Strait there is nothing to stop the Allies from continuing the DEI campaign. The retaking of the Celebes and Borneo and the heavy suppression of Japanese air bases in the places not immediately retaken will proceed through 1943. This leads into a relief operation to begin the liberation of Luzon in 4Q 1943. From Luzon air raids on the Home Islands, Formosa and Southern China can begin. There will still be plenty for the US Marine Corp to do in TTL.