Italico Valore - A more successful 1848 revolution in Italy - a TL

I don't think a Tuscany straddling Italy from sea to sea on the border with Papal States and Naples is a good idea, and Leopold should be happy to keep his throne (plus he would be getting a few tidbits).
What would be funny, it is the idea that a Roman Republic might come to be in TTL too (I don't believe the Consistory will be more rational than it was IOTL), including Latium and Umbria. Then this republic asks to join the Italian Confederation :)
Regarding Naples, leave Ferdinand simmer in the broth he cooked. There is no need to make big efforts, unless Ferdinand goes on a rampage.
A Roman Republic with my homeland Umbria in the Federation? That's a pretty cool idea. I had not thought about that. My main concern was a Federation with just two members, but admittedly your solution works perfectly. It is also fun to see a mixture of different forms of government inside Italy- I find it particularly fit.
 
A Roman Republic with my homeland Umbria in the Federation? That's a pretty cool idea. I had not thought about that. My main concern was a Federation with just two members, but admittedly your solution works perfectly. It is also fun to see a mixture of different forms of government inside Italy- I find it particularly fit.
IOTL, Mazzini proposed a federation to Tuscany, after the Grand-duke fled to Gaeta (and Guerrazzi refused for the Tuscan government). This is what gave me the idea.
There is no guarantee it might work, but at the very least should not be worse than making all of Italy a greater Piedmont and the good news is that Cavour has at least 13 years to tinker with it. If there is a man who can pull it through, he's the one. Mind, it will be a bumpy road, and a lot of people will be very unhappy (but at least ITTL it looks like that the unholy alliance between the Piedmontese aristocracy and the absent-landowners of the south will not come to be, and that it is an undisputed blessing).
There are historical equivalents (the HRE or the NCG come to mind) of mixing up monarchies and republics, and there is a long record of republican institutions in many parts of Italy (not that I think that either the UPoE or Venice, much less the Roman republic are going to resemble closely the patrician mercantile republics).
Do you like the idea of the United Provinces? Maybe it might even include a rotating governorship, moving from one city to the others in turn every couple of years.
 
IOTL, Mazzini proposed a federation to Tuscany, after the Grand-duke fled to Gaeta (and Guerrazzi refused for the Tuscan government). This is what gave me the idea.
There is no guarantee it might work, but at the very least should not be worse than making all of Italy a greater Piedmont and the good news is that Cavour has at least 13 years to tinker with it. If there is a man who can pull it through, he's the one. Mind, it will be a bumpy road, and a lot of people will be very unhappy (but at least ITTL it looks like that the unholy alliance between the Piedmontese aristocracy and the absent-landowners of the south will not come to be, and that it is an undisputed blessing).
There are historical equivalents (the HRE or the NCG come to mind) of mixing up monarchies and republics, and there is a long record of republican institutions in many parts of Italy (not that I think that either the UPoE or Venice, much less the Roman republic are going to resemble closely the patrician mercantile republics).
Do you like the idea of the United Provinces? Maybe it might even include a rotating governorship, moving from one city to the others in turn every couple of years.
I like the idea of the United Provinces a lot. It is the best option, I think. It suits the general "Emilian" spirit quite a lot and could appease the local elites a lot more than outright annexation (or a comeback of the Dukes, even as a mere figurehead). I am also intrigued by the division of Romagna and Marche. Three Duchies, maybe? "Ducato di Romagna" (centered around Ravenna), a revival of the "Ducato di Urbino" and a newly formed "Ducato di Ancona"? My soft spot for the early Middle Ages calls also for the revival of the Duchy of Spoleto, but that would be really too much, I am afraid. Following this train of thought, the Iron Crown should now be in Piedmontese hands. I am not sure CA would be crowned with it if we go for the "Northern Federation Way" but his direct kingdom is comprised of the core of the ancient Lombard kingdom, after all. This makes me wonder if Pavia could be chosen as a (con)federal capital.
 
I like the idea of the United Provinces a lot. It is the best option, I think. It suits the general "Emilian" spirit quite a lot and could appease the local elites a lot more than outright annexation (or a comeback of the Dukes, even as a mere figurehead). I am also intrigued by the division of Romagna and Marche. Three Duchies, maybe? "Ducato di Romagna" (centered around Ravenna), a revival of the "Ducato di Urbino" and a newly formed "Ducato di Ancona"? My soft spot for the early Middle Ages calls also for the revival of the Duchy of Spoleto, but that would be really too much, I am afraid. Following this train of thought, the Iron Crown should now be in Piedmontese hands. I am not sure CA would be crowned with it if we go for the "Northern Federation Way" but his direct kingdom is comprised of the core of the ancient Lombard kingdom, after all. This makes me wonder if Pavia could be chosen as a (con)federal capital.
IOTL, Cavour said: "We've made Italy, now let's us make Italians"; ITTL, the sentence may become: "We've made Italians, now let's make Italy".
There is no need for CA (or his heir) to grab the crown of Italy (which, by the way, is not yet complete). IMHO, CA would be more than comfortable keeping the title of king of Sardinia, add whatever title he may choose for Lombardy, Veneto and Friuli (as well as Prince of Adria in personal union, for the new province carved out joining Romagna and Marche) and President of the Italian Confederation.
There is a reason or two for the "personal union": the kingdom of Sardinia would directly annex Lombardy, Veneto and Friuli, and fully integrate them, while the princedom of Adria would have no territorial contiguity; additionally, it's not out of the question in the future to give the title in to a younger son (or daughter), once the Savoia are no more strapped for heirs. Before you say anything, I know that "Adria" is a town near Rovigo, and not included in the new principality, but how to you name a province which has never existed before and whose defining characteristic is that has a major Adriatic coastline? I like your suggestion of the three duchies, but Ravenna is not suitable for Romagna (the marshes have not yet been reclaimed), Imola or Forli' would be much more suitable, and Urbino does not have good connections to the coast (Pesaro fits the bill much better); Ancona is fine, and might even be the capital of the principality, given the importance of its harbor for commercial traffic but also for the navy.
The Iron Crown and Pavia as confederal capital is very romantic, but Verona is much better placed across line of communication east-west and north-south. For the Iron Crown, I would suggest it is kept in the Confederal Parliament, as a memory of the past and a promise of better things for the future, but even more as a visible symbol of the resurrected Italian unity
 
IOTL, Cavour said: "We've made Italy, now let's us make Italians"; ITTL, the sentence may become: "We've made Italians, now let's make Italy".
There is no need for CA (or his heir) to grab the crown of Italy (which, by the way, is not yet complete). IMHO, CA would be more than comfortable keeping the title of king of Sardinia, add whatever title he may choose for Lombardy, Veneto and Friuli (as well as Prince of Adria in personal union, for the new province carved out joining Romagna and Marche) and President of the Italian Confederation.
There is a reason or two for the "personal union": the kingdom of Sardinia would directly annex Lombardy, Veneto and Friuli, and fully integrate them, while the princedom of Adria would have no territorial contiguity; additionally, it's not out of the question in the future to give the title in to a younger son (or daughter), once the Savoia are no more strapped for heirs. Before you say anything, I know that "Adria" is a town near Rovigo, and not included in the new principality, but how to you name a province which has never existed before and whose defining characteristic is that has a major Adriatic coastline? I like your suggestion of the three duchies, but Ravenna is not suitable for Romagna (the marshes have not yet been reclaimed), Imola or Forli' would be much more suitable, and Urbino does not have good connections to the coast (Pesaro fits the bill much better); Ancona is fine, and might even be the capital of the principality, given the importance of its harbor for commercial traffic but also for the navy.
The Iron Crown and Pavia as confederal capital is very romantic, but Verona is much better placed across line of communication east-west and north-south. For the Iron Crown, I would suggest it is kept in the Confederal Parliament, as a memory of the past and a promise of better things for the future, but even more as a visible symbol of the resurrected Italian unity
Admittedly, I was more focusing on historical borders/entities rather than practicality. The Principality of Adria (I could not come up with a better name, or just with variations of the same idea a la "Principato dell'Adriatico") works a lot better, and Ancona would be surely capital. The same reasoning applies to Pavia as a capital: a romantic suggestion. The Iron Crown in Parliament is a really good idea. One could even think of a "Galleria d'Italia" where relics of the past are shown as a display of the pride of the new nation.
 
Could the title of the Italian monarch be "King of the Italians" rather than "King of Italy"? Sort of like "King of the Belgians" or, most famously, "Emperor of the French"?
 
Could the title of the Italian monarch be "King of the Italians" rather than "King of Italy"? Sort of like "King of the Belgians" or, most famously, "Emperor of the French"?
It certainly could ITTL (IOTL it was utterly impossible), but IMO it will come later on, and most likely would be "Emperor of the Italians". If it comes to be, it will mean that not only Italy has prospered economically, but also socially. If it ever eventuates, it will be the day to trot out the Iron Crown, and maybe Roger's Mantle too.
 

Deleted member 147289

I want to thank everyone for the most insightful and interesting comments that this TL has recieved!

I think that the Federation route is the most likely one (as I have already written part of that chapter) and the only one who can do that is Cavour, he has the realpolitik of Bismarck and he's cunning enough to transform the north in a powerhouse. Maybe he doesn't even get malaria and lives longer remaining PM for 15 years or more. 15 years! Of Cavour leading the Federation which will be, by the way, under Franco-British protection and so will have an easier time with industrial development. The constitution will likely be liberal, a mix between the Sicilian one, the Statuto and others.

I think that Sardinia needs to be renamed since they control all of the Po Valley, obvious choices are North Italian Kingdom, Kingdom of Padania or "Kingdom of Italy" in the North and Two Sicilies in the south. I can see the Papal States collapsing and the Piedemontese moving in to occupy the land, the only issue that I have is the Roman Republic which I would love to keep to have some kind of internal balance between monarchies and republics, but I'm not sure if all Latium and Umbria could be annexed as a single huge republic, any suggestions?

For now no Emperor of Italy, I'd rather have a king, it's a bit pretentious but maybe in the future even though we'll have to see how history plays out.
 
13. SUMMER 1848

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13. SUMER 1848

The summer of 1848 was as interesting as the rest of the year: great changes had taken place in a Europe that was increasingly feeling them: the Italian war, the parliament of Frankfurt and the French Republic. The old order fought for survival against the new one that pushed to get out of oblivion but these conquests will only be local: 1848 did not lead to a total upheaval of the continental structure but introduced new players into the arena and questioned some dogmas that stood before the French revolution.

Germany had been affected by a liberal-nationalist revolutionary wave, which had seen the ideas of a German nation, touted by the time of the Enlightenment, rise to the fore with the support of the bourgeoisie and educated middle-high classes who wanted a true change, freedom and rights, to which many nobles were opposed as they saw the source of their power in the current status quo. In mid-May the Frankfurt parliament had finally met after the debate on the election of the delegates and their number but had quickly fallen into factionalism with the three main blocs: conservatives, liberals and democrats, each with a different vision for the future of Germany. The only issue that seemed to unite the delegates was the Schleswig-Holstein issue that would have been the location of a small war between Prussia and Denmark during June, which ended in a stalemate due to the threat of intervention by Tsar Nicholas I. The military failure had not been political, however, because it had shown that the various German nations were more or less willing to cooperate with each other against external opponents. The parliament had already started an ambitious project for the drafting of a constitution for the "German Empire" entrusted to a special commission, while the delegates continued throughout the rest of the year a series of more or less effective battles such as the extension of Zollverein to the whole confederation which was approved, not without difficulty, in late summer; the creation of a German navy and the embryo of an army which were both downsized to a symbolic force and the definition of what Germany was and who was German, given that the two most powerful nations, Austria and Prussia, had territory and subjects outside the Germanic confederation belonging to different nationalities and the nationalist state-nation mentality imposed on delegates the need to "fix" the borders of Germany and here too the parliament was divided between the proponents of Greater Germany and those of Lesser Germany . Although agreements was found on some things, the Frankfurt parliament always seemed divided between its factions fighting for power.

schleswig.jpg

Despite being a failure, the First Schleswig War showed Germans that they needed a nation to call their own to resist foreign pressure

In France, the second republic was threatened by the same problems it had been tasked with solving: unemployment had shot up after the February revolution and about a million French people were out of work and out of money. This consequently led to the discontent of the extremist factions in the assembly who demanded a democratic crusade and social rights for the workers, who were gradually radicalizing themselves more and more. To respond to this radicalization, the moderates had formed an alliance with the conservatives of which the nobility and the upper industrial bourgeoisie were part. After the failed insurrection in May and the consequent radicalization of the workers of the national factories, the government ordered its closure to avoid further problems but the workers rebelled in Paris, supported by the radicals in parliament, starting the June Uprising. With France engaged in high-level negotiations in London for Italy's future, the government felt compelled to respond as intensely as possible to this rebellion to reconfirm the role of Republican France as a major European power and therefore General Cavignac was ordered to stiflle the revolt and was placed in command of 100,000 regular soldiers. The rebellion was wiped out in four days, with peace returning on June 28th. On the same day Cavaignac was made president of Council of Ministers with semi dictatorial powers as a token of gratitude until the December elections, giving him almost absolute control over the nation. Elections were set in winter and the assembly started debeating on the method of election fo the president with delegates arguing for the majority of votes and others for a vote by the assembly. Karl Marx observed that the insurrection of the Parisian workers was a symptom of the class struggle which would only worsen with the progress of industrialization and the exploitation of the less fortunate.

cavaignac.jpg

General Cavaignac was one of the protagonists of the 1848 revolution in France

London hosted throughout the summer the peace negotiations between the Kingdom of Sardinia and the Empire of Austria, concerning the future structure of the Italian peninsula. The other peninsular states had been invited to participate and of these, the Venetians, Tuscany and Two Sicilies sent representatives.The papacy refrained from sending a legate because of the aversion of Pius IX to a dominant Sardinia and because of the antipopal revolts that had spread to Imola and the Marche. The first question to be resolved was that of the war in northern Italy: the Piedmontese army had won and managed to expel the Austrians from the Veneto plain, forcing them to repair behind the Tagliamento. Apart from the fortresses of Mantua and Vicenza, there were no longer any Austrians in the Po valley, therefore the negotiations were easier and the parties came to the July Treaty: The Kingdom of Sardinia would annex all the territories from Lombardy to the Tagliamento that it would become the new border, the Austrians would have to evacuate Mantua and Verona, they would lose all influence on the peninsula, have to return the Iron Crown and Piedmont would become the dominant power in Italy and be renamed Kingdom of Northern Italy. Austria should compensate Piedmont for the looting of Veneto during the retreat.

Once the question of the war had been resolved, the bulk of the Austrian diplomats returned to their homeland, leaving some observers for peninsula matters. It was decided that Tuscany would fall into the sphere of influence of Piedmont, that the duchies of Parma and Modena were annexed by Piedmont with the internal arrangements that it deemed necessary. The absence of the papal delegation favored a secret negotiation between Cavour and his Anglo-French counterparts regarding the riots in Romagna and Marche; Cavour obtained that, in the event of an aggravation of the revolt, Sardinia could intervene and annex the regions with the favor of the great powers. The kingdom of Naples was practically forced by the British to recognize the independence of Sicily in the Piedmontese orbit. Ferdinando did not yet have the strength to attempt an invasion while the island was becoming increasingly militarized with the expansion of the national guard and continuous imports of weapons from Western Europe; it was enough for the British to make these points clear and the delegation had to yield to Her Majesty, recognizing the existence of the Kingdom of Sicily and the coronation of Alberto Amedeo I.

cavour.jpg

Cunning and shrewd, Camillo Benso of Cavour would soon rise to prominence after the war

Behind the scenes there were also negotiations between Piedmont, France and Great Britain regarding commercial treaties and foreign investments in the nascent Italian industry, especially in Lombardy, Piedmont and Tuscany. Sardinia would have been elevated to the rank of respected middle power, under slight French influence and with the favor of Great Britain which now considered the existence of a strong buffer state in northern Italy essential to maintaining the balance of power. Vague allusions were also made to a future political unification of the peninsula and to an unspecified Piedmontese free hand in doing so.

The fading of papal support had killed the neo-Guelph cause: now the idea of a peninsula led by an Italian but unpatriotic pope was unthinkable even for the religious masses and the withdrawal of Two Sicilies from the campaign had killed the idea of a peninsular confederation. This brought a lot of sudden water to the mill of civil confederates like Carlo Cattaneo and Ricasoli. Although a peninsular confederation was unthinkable at the moment, an alternative idea, a North Italian Confederation made of Piedmont and the other north Italian states influenced by it and Sicily, begun to spread creating fertile ground for the proposals of these statesmen who presented them to Prime Minister Balbo and to King Carlo Alberto, Winner of the Austria, in the fall.
 
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I think that the Federation route is the most likely one (as I have already written part of that chapter) and the only one who can do that is Cavour, he has the realpolitik of Bismarck and he's cunning enough to transform the north in a powerhouse. Maybe he doesn't even get malaria and lives longer remaining PM for 15 years or more. 15 years! Of Cavour leading the Federation which will be, by the way, under Franco-British protection and so will have an easier time with industrial development. The constitution will likely be liberal, a mix between the Sicilian one, the Statuto and others
Cavour got malaria while he was supervising the establishment of his model rice farm in Leri, near Vercelli, but this happened well before the POD. The most likely cause of his death was the refusal of taking quinine (which at the time was available, but used as a general febrifuge and analgesic: malaria, as well as the role of mosquitos in the contagion and the value of quinine as a specific cure would have been discovered only 20 years later by Leveran), since Cavour had little confidence in doctors and "modern" medicine. When he was finally convinced to take quinine, it was too late.
However, ITTL Cavour should have a very busy life, as he had IOTL too, but most likely a less stressful one (the 5 years between 1856 and his death were very hard on him) and hopefully will be convinced to take quinine earlier. Having him in the prime minister chair until the late 1860s it is a distinct possibility.
British and French will always take care of their interests first, so one must be careful in supping with them, but for sure Cavour will be able to avoid the diplomatic isolation that plagued Italy in the first years after unification. Mind, relations with France will always be a bit bumpy because of the Roman Question (even if it might be solved before any possible French intervention, not to mention that Cavaignac might be smarted during his tenure as President of the Council of Ministers, and keep the presidential election in the hands of the Assembly, and keep Louis Napoleon out of the race) as well because the agricultural sector of both countries compete in the same markets.
I think that Sardinia needs to be renamed since they control all of the Po Valley, obvious choices are North Italian Kingdom, Kingdom of Padania or "Kingdom of Italy" in the North and Two Sicilies in the south. I can see the Papal States collapsing and the Piedemontese moving in to occupy the land, the only issue that I have is the Roman Republic which I would love to keep to have some kind of internal balance between monarchies and republics, but I'm not sure if all Latium and Umbria could be annexed as a single huge republic, any suggestions?
Why? The kingdom of Prussia did not change its name after the massive annexations after the war of 1866, nor did the Stuarts modify the structure of the three British kingdoms after inheriting the crown of England. Keeping the same name is also more reassuring for everyone else.
As far as Latium and Umbria, they had 4% of the population of the kingdom of Italy according to the census of 1861, and close to 6% of the surface (actually, Umbria had more population than Latium, while nowadays Latium has 8 times the population of Umbria). It is not a big province, anyway you look at it.
For now no Emperor of Italy, I'd rather have a king, it's a bit pretentious but maybe in the future even though we'll have to see how history plays out.
The imperial title was a possibility, not a destiny. Nothing is written in stone. Maybe TTL Italy will be a republic in year 1900.
 
Germany had been affected by a liberal-nationalist revolutionary wave, which had seen the ideas of a German nation, touted by the time of the Enlightenment, rise to the fore with the support of the bourgeoisie and educated middle-high classes who wanted a true change, freedom and rights, to which many nobles were opposed as they saw the source of their power in the current status quo. In mid-May the Frankfurt parliament had finally met after the debate on the election of the delegates and their number but had quickly fallen into factionalism with the three main blocs: conservatives, liberals and democrats, each with a different vision for the future of Germany. The only issue that seemed to unite the delegates was the Schleswig-Holstein issue that would have been the location of a small war between Prussia and Denmark during June, which ended in a stalemate due to the threat of intervention by Tsar Nicholas I. The military failure had not been political, however, because it had shown that the various German nations were more or less willing to cooperate with each other against external opponents. The parliament had already started an ambitious project for the drafting of a constitution for the "German Empire" entrusted to a special commission, while the delegates continued throughout the rest of the year a series of more or less effective battles such as the extension of Zollverein to the whole confederation which was approved, not without difficulty, in late summer; the creation of a German navy and the embryo of an army which were both downsized to a symbolic force and the definition of what Germany was and who was German, given that the two most powerful nations, Austria and Prussia, had territory and subjects outside the Germanic confederation belonging to different nationalities and the nationalist state-nation mentality imposed on delegates the need to "fix" the borders of Germany and here too the parliament was divided between the proponents of Greater Germany and those of Lesser Germany . Although agreements was found on some things, the Frankfurt parliament always seemed divided between its factions fighting for power
Most of the delegates to the Parliament of Frankfurt were learned and reasonable men (it was called the Parliament of Professors for a reason), but also less than effective ones, and very uncomfortable with the less savoury side of politics, the art of the compromise. They could agree only that the time had come for a German Nation to form, but immediately started to fight on which lands should be included in this German Nation: the supporters of Klein Deutschland wanted to limit it to Germany proper, while the supporters of Gross Deutschland, who wanted to include Austria and Bohemia (neither side considered the Poles). The last ditch compromise to offer the German crown to the king of Prussia was a failure (famously the king said "I will never pick a crown from the gutters!"), but even if this offer had been accepted it is difficult to believe it would end well. It was a pity, because a Germany born from the ideas of the Frankfurt Parliament and accepting them would have saved Europe a lot of pain.
With France engaged in high-level negotiations in London for Italy's future, the government felt compelled to respond as intensely as possible to this rebellion to reconfirm the role of Republican France as a major European power and therefore General Cavignac was ordered to stiflle the revolt and was placed in command of 100,000 regular soldiers. The rebellion was wiped out in four days, with peace returning on June 28th. On the same day Cavignac was made president of the republic as a token of gratitude until the December elections, giving him almost absolute control over the nation. Elections were set in winter and the assembly started debeating on the method of election fo the president with delegates arguing for the majority of votes and others for a vote by the assembly. Karl Marx observed that the insurrection of the Parisian workers was a symptom of the class struggle which would only worsen with the progress of industrialization and the exploitation of the less fortunate.
As I said before, Cavaignac was appointed President of the Council of Ministers (with very wide, almost dictatorial powers), not President of the Republic.
The Kingdom of Sardinia would annex all the territories from Lombardy to the Tagliamento that it would become the new border, the Austrians would have to evacuate Mantua and Verona, they would lose all influence on the peninsula, have to return the Iron Crown and Piedmont would become the dominant power in Italy and be renamed Kingdom of Northern Italy. Austria should compensate Veneto for its looting during the retreat.

Once the question of the war had been resolved, the bulk of the Austrian diplomats returned to their homeland, leaving some observers for peninsula matters. It was decided that Tuscany would fall into the sphere of influence of Piedmont, that the duchies of Parma and Modena were annexed by Piedmont with the internal arrangements that it deemed necessary. The absence of the papal delegation favored a secret negotiation between Cavour and his Anglo-French counterparts regarding the riots in Romagna and Marche; Cavour obtained that, in the event of an aggravation of the revolt, Sardinia could intervene and annex the regions with the favor of the great powers. The kingdom of Naples was practically forced by the British to recognize the independence of Sicily in the Piedmontese orbit. Ferdinando did not yet have the strength to attempt an invasion while the island was becoming increasingly militarized with the expansion of the national guard and continuous imports of weapons from Western Europe; it was enough for the British to make these points clear and the delegation had to yield to Her Majesty, recognizing the existence of the Kingdom of Sicily and the coronation of Alberto Amedeo I.
War compensations should be paid from Austria to Sardinia, not to Veneto.
The way you outline the treaty between Sardinia and Austria, and even more so the discussions on Italian matters gives the impression that CA is going to grab everything which he can reach (Lombardy, Veneto and Friuli, which are a given, but also Parma, Modena, the Legations and Marche).
However you close your post saying
The fading of papal support had killed the Italian confederal neo-Guelph cause: now the idea of a peninsula led by an Italian but unpatriotic pope was unthinkable even for the religious masses. This brought a lot of sudden water to the mill of federalists like Carlo Cattaneo and Ricasoli. Although a peninsular federation was unthinkable at the moment the existence of a large northern state that influenced other smaller but nominally independent states created fertile ground for the proposals of these statesmen who presented them to Prime Minister Balbo and to King Carlo Alberto, Winner of the Austria, in the fall.
Does this mean that a Confederation is still on the cards ? IOTL Sardinia (in 1859 and 1860) went for straight annexations and wanted to turn all of Italy into a much larger Piedmont. It was not the optimal solution for sure, even more so because we're still in 1848, and all the repressions and the pains of the 1850s will not happen ITTL.
There is not even a mention of Venice, either, and that's a true pity.
 

Deleted member 147289

Most of the delegates to the Parliament of Frankfurt were learned and reasonable men (it was called the Parliament of Professors for a reason), but also less than effective ones, and very uncomfortable with the less savoury side of politics, the art of the compromise. They could agree only that the time had come for a German Nation to form, but immediately started to fight on which lands should be included in this German Nation: the supporters of Klein Deutschland wanted to limit it to Germany proper, while the supporters of Gross Deutschland, who wanted to include Austria and Bohemia (neither side considered the Poles). The last ditch compromise to offer the German crown to the king of Prussia was a failure (famously the king said "I will never pick a crown from the gutters!"), but even if this offer had been accepted it is difficult to believe it would end well. It was a pity, because a Germany born from the ideas of the Frankfurt Parliament and accepting them would have saved Europe a lot of pain.

As I said before, Cavaignac was appointed President of the Council of Ministers (with very wide, almost dictatorial powers), not President of the Republic.

War compensations should be paid from Austria to Sardinia, not to Veneto.
The way you outline the treaty between Sardinia and Austria, and even more so the discussions on Italian matters gives the impression that CA is going to grab everything which he can reach (Lombardy, Veneto and Friuli, which are a given, but also Parma, Modena, the Legations and Marche).
However you close your post saying

Does this mean that a Confederation is still on the cards ? IOTL Sardinia (in 1859 and 1860) went for straight annexations and wanted to turn all of Italy into a much larger Piedmont. It was not the optimal solution for sure, even more so because we're still in 1848, and all the repressions and the pains of the 1850s will not happen ITTL.
There is not even a mention of Venice, either, and that's a true pity.
I have corrected the Cavignac and Veneto parts, thanks for pointing that out.

About Germany, ITTL the Frankfurt Parliament will be more effective than OTL. Prussia won't accept a liberal constitution, and there won't be any early unification. But there will be more integration between the German states: economic, political and some form of military one. Later chapters will provide context and developments of this as.

Sardinia grabs everything until the Tagliamento, the current front line. The treaty recognises the de facto annexation of Lombardy and the Conference in Venice between monarchists and republicans will be presented in the next chapter as well as the future of Veneto. Parma and Modena are under heavy Sardinian influence and can be considered annexed. The legations are rioting but it's not a full fledged insurrection yet, they're waiting for the perfect moment to strike. Cavour, being skilled as he is recognizes that this moment will come soon and he's anticipating it by settling it at the conference.

The Confederal idea is, unfortunately, dead. The Pope is against it and it's people are rioting. There are other independent states in Italy, like Tuscany and Sicily, under Sardinian influence and soon to be merged in the early discussed Federation. Two Sicilies would be against the idea and antagonised by Sicilian independence and Piedmont's role in it. So there will be no Italian Confederation but North Italian Federation
Cavour got malaria while he was supervising the establishment of his model rice farm in Leri, near Vercelli, but this happened well before the POD. The most likely cause of his death was the refusal of taking quinine (which at the time was available, but used as a general febrifuge and analgesic: malaria, as well as the role of mosquitos in the contagion and the value of quinine as a specific cure would have been discovered only 20 years later by Leveran), since Cavour had little confidence in doctors and "modern" medicine. When he was finally convinced to take quinine, it was too late.
However, ITTL Cavour should have a very busy life, as he had IOTL too, but most likely a less stressful one (the 5 years between 1856 and his death were very hard on him) and hopefully will be convinced to take quinine earlier. Having him in the prime minister chair until the late 1860s it is a distinct possibility.
British and French will always take care of their interests first, so one must be careful in supping with them, but for sure Cavour will be able to avoid the diplomatic isolation that plagued Italy in the first years after unification. Mind, relations with France will always be a bit bumpy because of the Roman Question (even if it might be solved before any possible French intervention, not to mention that Cavaignac might be smarted during his tenure as President of the Council of Ministers, and keep the presidential election in the hands of the Assembly, and keep Louis Napoleon out of the race) as well because the agricultural sector of both countries compete in the same markets.

Why? The kingdom of Prussia did not change its name after the massive annexations after the war of 1866, nor did the Stuarts modify the structure of the three British kingdoms after inheriting the crown of England. Keeping the same name is also more reassuring for everyone else.
As far as Latium and Umbria, they had 4% of the population of the kingdom of Italy according to the census of 1861, and close to 6% of the surface (actually, Umbria had more population than Latium, while nowadays Latium has 8 times the population of Umbria). It is not a big province, anyway you look at it.

The imperial title was a possibility, not a destiny. Nothing is written in stone. Maybe TTL Italy will be a republic in year 1900.
Strange man that Cavour, afraid of doctors. Maybe the needs of his work would push him to medicine earlier and allow him to keep malaria in check for a while. If he manages it he will set the record for longest serving Prime Minister in Italy.

Sorry for my ignorance but how does a Cavignac victory prevent Italy and France to be rivals? Even if the President would be elected by the assembly someone should still elect the assembly and I think that LN would play a big role with his surname and everything, he won't get OTL 75% but definitely a lot of votes and this will probably result in delegates electing LN out of Cavignac...or I'm missing something? And what about the same agricultural markets? How does Cavignac prevents this economic competition?

Between LN and Cavignac is really easy to do it just takes for the assembly to not remove the Bonaparte article...but I wonder...

No troubles for Latium then. About Venice, it will be covered in the next chapter anyway I didn't mention it because it's such a small player in the scope of events that I felt it was superfluous.

Thanks for the comments!
 
I hope there's a loophole that hands Istria to Italy in some future confrontation, eventually. And maybe Dalmatia.

Because reasons :D.
OTL Zara rose up in rebellion by March 18th. With a more successful Italy, I believe that it is just a question of (short) time before Istria and Dalmatia end up Italian.
 
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