Italico Valore - A more successful 1848 revolution in Italy - a TL

11. AN UNEXPECTED OFFER

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11. AN UNEXPECTED OFFER

On April 27th, 1848 there was the first election of the Kingdom of Sardinia, in which 1.7% of the total population could vote and of those people 65% went to the polls and elected the first Sardinian government giving a large majority to the political exponents who will be renamed centuries after "Historic Right", monarchist conservatives but with some liberal ideas. The chamber elected Cesare Balbo as first prime minister because of his central role in negotiating the Lombard compromise.

The first act of the Balbo government was in fact to put to vote the annexation of the Duchy of Lombardy to the kingdom of Sardinia. After a full day of discussion spent evaluating the pros and cons of the annexation (the pros from the Historical Right, the cons from their rivals, the Historical Left), the decision was postponed to the 29th when it was approved by the majority before noon, making Lombardy is an integral part of Piedmont. The extension of the Albertine Statute to Lombardy made it necessary to organize elections also in the region to allow its inhabitants to enjoy the same rights as the Piedmontese and therefore a new Lombard election was inserted in mid-May.

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La Scala Opera House, one of the cultural icons of Milan

Lombardy was a rich and populous region, Milan was the pride of Lombardy-Venetia: most of the northern heavy and metallurgical industry was concentrated there, with a highly developed textile sector and more organized agriculture than in Piedmont. The annexation of Lombardy made Piedmont the economic power of the peninsula even though it was still behind the Two Sicilies which, however, had a more agrarian economy than the North.

The news of Von Westmeath's defeat came quickly to Vienna, causing a panic attack to Ferdinand I who was now convinced that it was a matter of time before he lost his empire. The emperor had never been mentally healthy enough to rule the empire and this news only worsened his state of health, even leading him to propose abdication, which horrified Prince Schwarzenberg: Franz Joseph was too young and inexperienced to rule and would lead to the ruin of the empire while it was better to have a mad but under control emperor. The prince did not want to take brutal control of the empire but wanted to save it and could have done it better with an emperor unable to rule. In his study he had begun to receive British ambassadors who asked questions about the Italian question and its future. Until then he had stalled them, but now he could not take time anymore, with Von Westmeath defeated there was no more time to waste and sometimes to save the body it was necessary to cut a leg.

The Sardinian Navy sailed from Genoa, before the elections, to Venice: it had been decided to deploy naval forces to give a show of strength to the Austrian navy which lay on the bottom of the port of Pula or scattered throughout the Adriatic, to entice the Germans to remain in port and not to challenge the hodgepodge of sailing and steam ships that was traveling towards the Serenissima. The presence of a naval team in the Adriatic would have given Venice the protection on four sides that it needed and would have pushed it further and further into the orbit of Piedmont, to which it owed its safety.

The military situation in Italy had attracted the attention of the great powers of Great Britain and France who had mobilized to find a rapid resolution to the conflict that did not alter too much the balance of power within the European continent. The French constituent assembly was determined to be sensitive to the maintenance of the European order and not to be a revolutionary time bomb ready to explode like the First Republic, so they queued in good order to the British in their undertaking aimed at containing the revolutions of the 1848. After the victory of Cittadella it was obvious that the Austrians had been driven out of the peninsula and that the Piedmontese were the new masters of the North. The troops besieged in Mantua and Verona had the hours counted and the diplomats of the two powers were already at work in Turin and Vienna to organize a peace conference in London in the summer; in both courts these offerings found ears willing to listen to them and supporters who made efforts to make preparations for their respective delegations and to end the war.

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Lord John Russell, British Prime Minister during the revolutions of 1849​

Pope Pius IX had by now abandoned the idea of continuing the war: the idea of being against a Catholic power and of seeing the Italian order of the last forty years defeated only because of a revolution in Milan no longer seemed worthy of a war. He also knew that the population was in favor of a unification of the peninsula and opposed any proposal to withdraw or reduce support. The task of a pope, however, was not only to deal with souls but also that of his legitimate dominion in the earthly world and he could not compromise the unity of the papal state.

In Naples King Ferdinand had lost the revolutionary and reformist vigor that had characterized the last part of his reign. Sicily in revolt occupied much of its time and the war in the north was too far away to have serious repercussions on its reign. The Sicilian revolutionaries had decided to give their state a monarchical form and had thought of Ferdinand of Savoy as a possible king, finding support from the British and French for the proposal. The king was baffled: the Savoys had become the favorite Italian house by the great powers who had taken a more active attitude towards the Italian situation. If Ferdinando di Savoia had the support of the British, how could he hope to stop him, unless he had brought order back to Sicily. That was the thing to do. The king summoned his troops, ordering them to go down to Sicily.

Meanwhile in the north Carlo Alberto, Bava and De Sonnaz had advanced far beyond the Piave river encountering little enemy resistance. The great battles like Cittadella or Legnago would no longer happen during the campaign and now the objective of the advance was the Tagliamento behind which Von Westmeath had hidden, together with reinforcements finally arrived from Illyria, leaving a few thousand demoralized men to lead a rearguard action. Once they reached the Tagliamento, they would propose a truce to the Austrians and, if Minister Balbo was right, the war would soon end with the English interest on the Italian question, but there was another problem that disturbed Carlo Alberto: the other offer, the.crown of Sicily to his son Ferdinando, this was a great opportunity not to be missed and if he hadn't misunderstood it was supported by France and England. His son, however, did not want to leave the artillery, being convinced that it was his place as an officer and prince but, with the end of the war in sight, it was better to think of the future rather than the present. Sicily, however, was still formally part of the Kingdom of the Two Sicilies which had sent a corps in support of the Piedmontese, an army that had failed to materialize when needed. Carlo Alberto did not want to do wrong to an ally, but this Sicilian situation seemed too big an opportunity to pass up, just like the Five Days.
 
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Really nice update. I love the Sicilian conundrum. A few questions. How much of the Sardinian fleet has set sail to Venice? Is there enough left for Ferdinand to take over the island? And finally, has Cavour managed to elected at the first attempt in TTL election?
 

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Really nice update. I love the Sicilian conundrum. A few questions. How much of the Sardinian fleet has set sail to Venice? Is there enough left for Ferdinand to take over the island? And finally, has Cavour managed to elected at the first attempt in TTL election?
A big chunk of the Sardinian fleet has sailed to Venice so if Ferdinand needs a ride to Sicily they're already there so he just needs to leave the army and board a ship which he will likely do.

Yes, Cavour has been elected and will be introduced in the next chapter as soon as I figure out how "real" peace talks work because it's all much more simple in my head!
 
A big chunk of the Sardinian fleet has sailed to Venice so if Ferdinand needs a ride to Sicily they're already there so he just needs to leave the army and board a ship which he will likely do.

Yes, Cavour has been elected and will be introduced in the next chapter as soon as I figure out how "real" peace talks work because it's all much more simple in my head!
Sorry, I am a bit confused. How can the fleet be already there if it has mostly sailed to Venice? The Two-Sicilian military fleet IIRC was the largest and the mightiest of the pre-unitary Italian states (which makes the mere fact that OTL the "Mille" could effectively make to Sicily the more surprising). So, even though Ferdinand is royalty, he is still a royal who is trying to install himself on a throne his namesake Ferdinand of TS sees as rightfully his. Besides, Ferdinand was strong-willed and resolute, I cannot see him nor ordering the fleet out as soon as the wanna-be-king sets foot on a boat. I believe it is much more difficult than "board a ship". Note that the English support OTL was under the condition that he could secure his throne.
 

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Sorry, I am a bit confused. How can the fleet be already there if it has mostly sailed to Venice? The Two-Sicilian military fleet IIRC was the largest and the mightiest of the pre-unitary Italian states (which makes the mere fact that OTL the "Mille" could effectively make to Sicily the more surprising). So, even though Ferdinand is royalty, he is still a royal who is trying to install himself on a throne his namesake Ferdinand of TS sees as rightfully his. Besides, Ferdinand was strong-willed and resolute, I cannot see him nor ordering the fleet out as soon as the wanna-be-king sets foot on a boat. I believe it is much more difficult than "board a ship". Note that the English support OTL was under the condition that he could secure his throne.
Sorry.

What I meant is that Ferdinand is in Veneto and the fleet is sailing for Venice, it will be a while before they reach the city.

From my point of view Ferdinand doesn't need to defeat the Neapolitan navy just land in Palermo and keep the island...the Sardinian fleet will prevent Two Sicilies from doing something rash. And if the gamble pays off Sicily will probably discussed in London too
 
Who controls Messina right now? If it's the Two Sicilies, then they have a spot where they can land troops without much trouble, which would be very bad news for the rebels.
 
Pope Pius IX had by now abandoned the idea of continuing the war: the idea of being against a Catholic power and of seeing the Italian order of the last forty years defeated only because of a revolution in Milan no longer seemed worthy of a war. He also knew that the population was in favor of a unification of the peninsula and opposed any proposal to withdraw or reduce support. The task of a pope, however, was not only to deal with souls but also that of his legitimate dominion in the earthly world and he could not compromise the unity of the papal state
It was a good update, Gerna. I would anticipate that Pius IX will make the same allocution as in OTL (which allegedly was written by Card. Antonelli on inputs from the Curia. Note that the constitution granted by the Pope included the ultimate subordination of the legislative chamber to the Consistory, the assembly of Cardinals chaired by the Pope. It was an arrangement which has eerily resemblances to the one governing Iran). Besides stating the impossibility for the Pope to wage war against another catholic state (which is conveniently forgetting the many precedents in the history of the Papal States), it also included a condemnation of the neo-guelph ideology: the Pope would not be the head of state of a federal Italy. I think that CA will be less perturbed by this Papal allocution than he was IOTL, given the different development of the war in Northern Italy.
In Naples King Ferdinand had lost the revolutionary and reformist vigor that had characterized the last part of his reign. Sicily in revolt occupied much of its time and the war in the north was too far away to have serious repercussions on its reign. The Sicilian revolutionaries had decided to give their state a monarchical form and had thought of Ferdinand of Savoy as a possible king, finding support from the British and French for the proposal. The king was baffled: the Savoys had become the favorite Italian house by the great powers who had taken a more active attitude towards the Italian situation. If Ferdinando di Savoia had the support of the British, how could he hope to stop him, unless he had brought order back to Sicily. That was the thing to do. The king summoned his troops, ordering them to go down to Sicily.
As I said, the French were less sanguine than the British with regard to the possibility that Ferdinand of Savoy would become king of Sicily, but I don't really see them rocking the boat. I don't see Ferdinand of Naples deciding too quickly either. First of all, the better portion of his army has started the long march back from Romagna and committing the remaining troops to an invasion of Sicily would let Naples open to an insurrection which would not be easy to cope with (Neapolitan liberals are also listening with keen interest to the news from the war in Veneto). Second, the British and French ambassadors will bring pressure on the Neapolitan government to avoid impulsive reactions (the last thing that either of them wants is a sanguinary repression of the revolt throwing another spark in the power keg that is Italy in 1848), and will "suggest" that the Sicilian question might be discussed at the conference in London. Last but not least, there is a huge difference between the political will of the king and the implementation of the same. The assembly and provisioning of a second expeditionary force is not anything which the Borbonic army will tackle with ease (and the expeditionary force must march from Naples to the tip of Calabria which takes time). IOTL, the behavior of the Sicilian insurgents was exactly the same as ITTL, including the candidature of Ferdinand of Savoy to the throne of Sicily, but Ferdinand of Naples unleashed his reprisal only at the beginning of September. I believe the time table will be quite similar ITTL too.
Sorry, I am a bit confused. How can the fleet be already there if it has mostly sailed to Venice? The Two-Sicilian military fleet IIRC was the largest and the mightiest of the pre-unitary Italian states (which makes the mere fact that OTL the "Mille" could effectively make to Sicily the more surprising). So, even though Ferdinand is royalty, he is still a royal who is trying to install himself on a throne his namesake Ferdinand of TS sees as rightfully his. Besides, Ferdinand was strong-willed and resolute, I cannot see him nor ordering the fleet out as soon as the wanna-be-king sets foot on a boat. I believe it is much more difficult than "board a ship". Note that the English support OTL was under the condition that he could secure his throne.
The most obvious solution is to delay by a couple of weeks the departure of the fleet: after all, post-Cittadella Venice is not really under threat. Under this scenario, and assuming that CA takes the bait of a Sicilian throne for his younger son, Ferdinand can sail to Sicily escorted by the Sardinian fleet, and take with him a few thousand troops. There is no way that the Bourbonic navy can intercept them. Upon landing in Palermo and accepting the crown offered to him by the Sicilian parliament, he would have accomplished the condition stipulated by the British, and their support will be guaranteed. Quite likely the Sardinian fleet will stay in Sicilian waters. As I said, Venice is no more under threat from the Austrians, and as soon as the cease-fire will be in place there is no real need of a naval presence in the Adriatic.

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Flag of Sicily adopted by the insurgents, and very likely to become the official flag of the kingdom of Sicily. The "Trinacria"in the white field is the very ancient symbol of the island
 
Who controls Messina right now? If it's the Two Sicilies, then they have a spot where they can land troops without much trouble, which would be very bad news for the rebels.
There are still a few Neapolitan troops holed up in the citadel, but the city and the harbor are held by the insurgents
 
12. THE NEXT PHASE

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12. THE NEXT PHASE

The month of May was spent by the Army of Italy chasing General Von Westmeath and what little remained of his army. The Austrians had withdrawn, setting fire to everything that was in their way to make the supply of their enemies ever more complex. The supply lines had extended dangerously during the spring and were now about to reach their limit with the current organization. Venice was doing everything possible but it was not enough, the army would have to stop sooner or later and the stop would arrive on the Tagliamento at the end of the month, when they found 30,000 Austrians on the other side waiting for them. Generals Bava and De Sonnaz had used white flags to parliament with Von Westmeath who had agreed to a truce on the river. On June 1st the cannons stopped firing for the first time in three months.

The liberation of much of the north east from Austrian troops led to the creation of "Unity Committees", local clubs, mainly in cities, whose goal was to push for annexation to the Kingdom of Sardinia following the Lombard model that had represented an interesting precedent of amalgamation of territories. The committees found fertile ground among the newly rebelled population but the biggest problem remained the future political structure of Veneto and Venice, always divided between republican and monarchical sympathies. The Balbo government organized a meeting in Venice in June between the two sides, mediated by the Piedmontese delegation to find an answer to the question.

The Emilian territories, the duchies of Parma and Modena, had driven out their sovereigns after a popular uprising that broke out in conjunction with the Piedmontese advance through Lombardy. The revolutionary governments had immediately taken sides in favor of the revolution while their dukes fled, promising however that if they were put back on the throne they would grant the constitution. Now the two dukes, Charles II and Francis V, were in exile in Turin and were in contact with Balbo who now, more than thinking about the internal affairs of the kingdom, was working to effectively reorganize the territories controlled by Piedmont. The dukes found ears willing to listen to them regarding their restoration behind the granting of the constitution and their annexation to what was expected to be the future Kingdom of the North.

With the army on the verge of stopping, Carlo Alberto had convinced his son Ferdinando to accept the offer of the Sicilian crown, reasoning that it was an excellent prospect for his second son, a crown was no small feat and a king was always a king, not it matters how small his domain. So it was that, two weeks before the armistice, Ferdinand reached Venice together with General D'Arneaux (assigned to the prince as a "punishment" for the defeat of Cittadella) and 4000 men. Most of the Sardinian fleet was anchored in the city, which had sailed weeks before to take control of the Adriatic which had not been contested by the Austrians. With the sea and Venice safe, the fleet left some vessels in Veneto while the bulk of the fleet had sailed for Palermo, where the Sicilians awaited their new king.

Not all events were good, however: during the advance, Pope Pius IX had sent a messenger to the army to inform General Durando that his place and his men were no longer north but were in Rome. On hearing this news Durando, very calmly, replied "Tell His Holiness that I am here to make Italy and that until that happens I will not return". With the pontifical order disregarded, the situation inside the peninsula worsened: the pope had always been hesitant about the forty-eight adventure and now he had found the courage to withdraw the army, a courage not shared by his commanders and by the population who, as soon as he knew in fact, riots began in the main cities, with the most serious in the Romagna legation in the cities of Bologna and Ravenna. The withdrawal and riots had profoundly shaken the neo-Guelph federalist idea of Carlo Alberto, given that the pope had withdrawn from the cause of Italy, the population would have struggled to recognize him as a possible leader of a confederation, making it necessary to look for a new figure who would could hold this position.

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Alberto Amedeo I of Savoy, King of Sicily

The withdrawal of the Bourbon troops would follow shortly thereafter, partially as a consequence of the arrival in Sicily of Ferdinando di Savoia where he was crowned as king Alberto Amedeo I. The reactionary period of Ferdinand was in full swing with the strengthening of the royal authorities and the partial suppression of the rights granted with the constitution, a gesture that created several discontents among the southern liberals who followed with great interest the exploits of Carlo Alberto in the north and who wanted to develop a stronger union between the nations of the peninsula. The privy council had indicated the suppression of the Sicilian uprisings and their newly crowned king as the first objective of the restoration, but some members of the council had aimed at the financial straits of the kingdom and the remoteness of the bulk of the Bourbon army, in transit through the Papal States, pushing to delay the operation. These indecisions plagued the council by paralyzing the kingdom as the Sardinian navy sailed in Sicilian waters and D'Arneaux began training Sicilian patriots. The English ambassador came to court and proposed to Ferdinand to mediate the Sicilian situation at the congress in preparation for London, a proposal to which the king consented.

With the end of the fighting in June, it was also time to start peace talks in London. The British diplomatic initiative with tacit French support had brought two delegations, one from Piedmont and one from Austria, together with observers from the other Italian states affected by the war, to meet in London under the auspices of the Foreign Office to find a solution to the situation in the north Italy. The Piedmontese delegation was led by Vincenzo Ricci, foreign minister of the Balbo government. Together with him was a newly elected Piedmontese deputy, Camillo Benso, count of Cavour. The young count had lived in France and England, spoke fluently English and his experience as well as political acumen (and a recommendation from Cesare Balbo himself) had made him one of the members on the list approved by Carlo Alberto to go to London to discuss the future of the Northern Italy. Diplomats were awaiting a busy summer spent discussing, among many others: the future of northern Italy and the kingdom of Sardinia, the situation in the rest of the peninsula which had to be stabilized in a satisfactory way, the question of Sicily (which would have been discussed between Piedmontese, Neapolitans and British) and the revolution underway in Austria. The diplomats began immediately in early June, with the Anglo French arbitrage, of the future of Northern Italy.
 
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This is a very quick succession of updates, do you write them all from scratch or you have pre written versions of them "stored" somewhere?

If its the former, I applaud you. And hooray for Italy!

I also wonder when Garibaldi will show up.
 
I also wonder when Garibaldi will show up.
Maybe he's already in the Papal Legations :eek:
Anyway, the fast pace of TTL is certainly not in favour of the Austrians, who have a lot of problems to solve (starting with Wien and Prague, since the Italian problems apparently have been already sorted out :rolleyes:), and they are not known for being able to be fast enough in solving them
 

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Garibaldi and other patriots like Mazzini have been in Milan or in Veneto, leading small units in skirmishes. With the success of the army and by extension the monarchy, republican sentiment is lower than OTL and will probably become a fringe movement in the post war even if some of it's leaders will retain some popularity (Mazzini for example with his Giovine Europa).

Austria is KO for the moment and all that matters for Schwarzenberg is to save as much of the empire as he can. It won't be easy but with potential British backing and Russian arms, he might be able to.

As we move from Veneto to London we'll have to take a look to the greater scope of things mainly the Frankfurt parliament in Germany, the constitutional debate in France, the brewing revolt in Rome (I wonder if the Roman Republic can survive and reach a compromise with the pope or Sardinian/French arms will be needed to crush the republic) and the US
 
Garibaldi and other patriots like Mazzini have been in Milan or in Veneto, leading small units in skirmishes. With the success of the army and by extension the monarchy, republican sentiment is lower than OTL and will probably become a fringe movement in the post war even if some of it's leaders will retain some popularity (Mazzini for example with his Giovine Europa).

Austria is KO for the moment and all that matters for Schwarzenberg is to save as much of the empire as he can. It won't be easy but with potential British backing and Russian arms, he might be able to.

As we move from Veneto to London we'll have to take a look to the greater scope of things mainly the Frankfurt parliament in Germany, the constitutional debate in France, the brewing revolt in Rome (I wonder if the Roman Republic can survive and reach a compromise with the pope or Sardinian/French arms will be needed to crush the republic) and the US
OTL Garibaldi reached Nizza by June 23rd. Since the start of the war TTL was the same as OTL, he is likely to have arrived "too late for the party". Which may have interesting consquences.
 
Garibaldi and other patriots like Mazzini have been in Milan or in Veneto, leading small units in skirmishes. With the success of the army and by extension the monarchy, republican sentiment is lower than OTL and will probably become a fringe movement in the post war even if some of it's leaders will retain some popularity (Mazzini for example with his Giovine Europa).

Austria is KO for the moment and all that matters for Schwarzenberg is to save as much of the empire as he can. It won't be easy but with potential British backing and Russian arms, he might be able to.

As we move from Veneto to London we'll have to take a look to the greater scope of things mainly the Frankfurt parliament in Germany, the constitutional debate in France, the brewing revolt in Rome (I wonder if the Roman Republic can survive and reach a compromise with the pope or Sardinian/French arms will be needed to crush the republic) and the US
Good updates, even if there are a couple of things which you missed.
The first it's a minor one: there are 3 Papal Legations, Bologna, Ferrara and Romagna (the Cardinal Legate for the last one is in Imola, and not in Ravenna.

The other one is more complex.

The heir of the duke of Parma (Ferdinando Carlo, later on duke as Carlo III) tried to reach CA on the field in Lombardy, in the hope to save the throne of Parma, but was arrested in Mantua and later on was freed (through a British intermediation) and went to London, but a condition of the release was that his father Carlo II would leave Parma (CA had already his eyes on the annexation of the duchy). Carlo II did not go to Turin but to Weisstrop, in Saxony, after nominating a regency council for the duchy. Note that Carlo II had become duke of Parma only on 31 December 1847, after the death of Marie Louise. Carlo II didn't really want to become duke of Parma (as he was not truly interested in governing a duchy, but liked to travel all over Europe and was a notorious spendthrift (all his life he had financial problems); however he accepted the duchy to protect the rights of his son, but soon after the battle of Novara in 1849 (which ended the 2nd phase of the war between Sardinia and Austria) he abdicated. His politics in the few months during which he ruled Parma were confuse enough: he made a military alliance with Austria, but immediately after the news of the insurrections in Vienna and Paris changed his mind and when a delegation came asking a constitution he granted it (he had made a similar turnabout in 1831, when he was duke of Lucca). His son FC was also not keen on politics or learning in general but was rather obsessed with military things. Not very intelligent, and with a huge sense of entitlement. He had studied in Turin, at the military academy, but did not make any good impression either on CA or on VE. After being released, he lived in London, and did not come back to Parma until May 1850.
Not very intelligent and with a huge sense of his own importance is a description that fits a lot of rulers, but it's doubtful that he would properly manage a potentially rich duchy in a time of great changes (even if he avoids being assassinated, which was his fate in 1854). His only saving grace is that the Bourbon-Parma have no close family ties with Austria (but they are linked to the Bourbons in Naples, France and Spain. FC's bride was a daughter of the count of Artois, the Bourbon pretender in France).

Ferdinand V of Modena is even a worse prospect. He is very much tied in the Habsburg Family (also served in the Austrian army as a general), but without any great distinction. Very much of a reactionary (his father was made of the same cloth, but at least he was ambitious and intelligent, or at least cunning). Francesco V inherited the throne in 1846, and soon after he gave one sister in marriage to the count of Chambord (the same who after the Franco-Prussian war had some chances to get the throne in France, but was too rigid to make anything out of the opportunity) and another one to Don Carlos, the Carlist pretender in Spain (both his in-laws were unashamedly legitimists of the deepest die), refused in 1847 to join the customs union agreed by the Pope, Sardinia and Tuscany (Austria was adamantly against it) and also signed a military alliance with Austria, which granted to Austria the right to station troops in Modena, at the cost of the duke. The Austrian troops were not well received by the population, and there were some riots at the beginning of March: immediately the duke appointed a council of Regency, and left for Vienna with his family. The news arriving from Europe and Naples may have helped him to
make this move. Not exactly heart-warming, keeping in mind that a duchy ruled by an Habsburg-Este in the heart of the prospected Italian Confederation might easily turn into a fifth-column. Another minus point is that Francesco V left no heir (a daughter died not long after her birth): IOTL, at his death in 1875 he willed the ducal title to Franz Ferdinand , son of Karl Ludwig (and so a nephew of Franz Joseph).

Leopold II and Tuscany tell a different story. Leopold II opened to the liberals in the fall of 1847, and in February 1848 granted a constitution, which led to elections and an inauguration of the legislative chamber in June 1848, under a moderate government. However Tuscany, which was already well advanced in proto-industrialization, and had a thriving international port in Leghorn, had different problems to cope with. The liberals were supported by the bourgeoisie, while the democrats were relying on the support of the lower classes (most of which had no franchise, and were agitating for better pay and work conditions). Additionally, the liberals were not demanding a republic (since most considered that a monarchy would be more protective of their interests; the democrats were in majority for a republic. The liberal government failed to quell the unrests, and resigned. A democrat government was voted, but the Grand-duke was not very comfortable with them and at the end of January 1849 left Florence for Siena and then Gaeta (where in the meantime also Pio IX had refuged after leaving Rome). All of these events would happen in the future( in June 1848, the Grand-duke is in Florence and the liberals are in power) and will not necessarily eventuate, but the problems of Tuscany will need to be solved. Notwithstanding this, Leopold is anyway an Habsburg-Lorena (although much less than a stooge as Francesco V was) and this cannot be ignored.

Mazzini was in Milan on 7 April 1848, arriving from Paris. He didn't rock the boat, and contributed to mediate between Cattaneo and Casati (he was not too happy with the annexation of Lombardy to Sardinia, but considered it a necessary evil). IOTL, he went to Switzerland after the battle of Custoza, then to Marseille and by boat to Leghorn on the way to Rome (the democrat government in power at the time was not too elated by his passage, and in February refused the federation with the Roman republic which Mazzini proposed).

Garibaldi arrived on 23 June in Italy (as @Tarabas said), so the war is practically over. He might have gone to Venice, or Bologna, or joined the Tuscan and Papal volunteers. If the situation in Rome evolves like OTL, he'll go there for sure. A French or Franco-Sardinian intervention to restore the pope is possible, or maybe not, but it is still far in the future and a lot of things might change.

The Italian Confederation doesn't look like the best bet at this stage, unless republics may be part of it.

Apologies for the long post
 

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Good updates, even if there are a couple of things which you missed.
The first it's a minor one: there are 3 Papal Legations, Bologna, Ferrara and Romagna (the Cardinal Legate for the last one is in Imola, and not in Ravenna.

The other one is more complex.

The heir of the duke of Parma (Ferdinando Carlo, later on duke as Carlo III) tried to reach CA on the field in Lombardy, in the hope to save the throne of Parma, but was arrested in Mantua and later on was freed (through a British intermediation) and went to London, but a condition of the release was that his father Carlo II would leave Parma (CA had already his eyes on the annexation of the duchy). Carlo II did not go to Turin but to Weisstrop, in Saxony, after nominating a regency council for the duchy. Note that Carlo II had become duke of Parma only on 31 December 1847, after the death of Marie Louise. Carlo II didn't really want to become duke of Parma (as he was not truly interested in governing a duchy, but liked to travel all over Europe and was a notorious spendthrift (all his life he had financial problems); however he accepted the duchy to protect the rights of his son, but soon after the battle of Novara in 1849 (which ended the 2nd phase of the war between Sardinia and Austria) he abdicated. His politics in the few months during which he ruled Parma were confuse enough: he made a military alliance with Austria, but immediately after the news of the insurrections in Vienna and Paris changed his mind and when a delegation came asking a constitution he granted it (he had made a similar turnabout in 1831, when he was duke of Lucca). His son FC was also not keen on politics or learning in general but was rather obsessed with military things. Not very intelligent, and with a huge sense of entitlement. He had studied in Turin, at the military academy, but did not make any good impression either on CA or on VE. After being released, he lived in London, and did not come back to Parma until May 1850.
Not very intelligent and with a huge sense of his own importance is a description that fits a lot of rulers, but it's doubtful that he would properly manage a potentially rich duchy in a time of great changes (even if he avoids being assassinated, which was his fate in 1854). His only saving grace is that the Bourbon-Parma have no close family ties with Austria (but they are linked to the Bourbons in Naples, France and Spain. FC's bride was a daughter of the count of Artois, the Bourbon pretender in France).

Ferdinand V of Modena is even a worse prospect. He is very much tied in the Habsburg Family (also served in the Austrian army as a general), but without any great distinction. Very much of a reactionary (his father was made of the same cloth, but at least he was ambitious and intelligent, or at least cunning). Francesco V inherited the throne in 1846, and soon after he gave one sister in marriage to the count of Chambord (the same who after the Franco-Prussian war had some chances to get the throne in France, but was too rigid to make anything out of the opportunity) and another one to Don Carlos, the Carlist pretender in Spain (both his in-laws were unashamedly legitimists of the deepest die), refused in 1847 to join the customs union agreed by the Pope, Sardinia and Tuscany (Austria was adamantly against it) and also signed a military alliance with Austria, which granted to Austria the right to station troops in Modena, at the cost of the duke. The Austrian troops were not well received by the population, and there were some riots at the beginning of March: immediately the duke appointed a council of Regency, and left for Vienna with his family. The news arriving from Europe and Naples may have helped him to
make this move. Not exactly heart-warming, keeping in mind that a duchy ruled by an Habsburg-Este in the heart of the prospected Italian Confederation might easily turn into a fifth-column. Another minus point is that Francesco V left no heir (a daughter died not long after her birth): IOTL, at his death in 1875 he willed the ducal title to Franz Ferdinand , son of Karl Ludwig (and so a nephew of Franz Joseph).

Leopold II and Tuscany tell a different story. Leopold II opened to the liberals in the fall of 1847, and in February 1848 granted a constitution, which led to elections and an inauguration of the legislative chamber in June 1848, under a moderate government. However Tuscany, which was already well advanced in proto-industrialization, and had a thriving international port in Leghorn, had different problems to cope with. The liberals were supported by the bourgeoisie, while the democrats were relying on the support of the lower classes (most of which had no franchise, and were agitating for better pay and work conditions). Additionally, the liberals were not demanding a republic (since most considered that a monarchy would be more protective of their interests; the democrats were in majority for a republic. The liberal government failed to quell the unrests, and resigned. A democrat government was voted, but the Grand-duke was not very comfortable with them and at the end of January 1849 left Florence for Siena and then Gaeta (where in the meantime also Pio IX had refuged after leaving Rome). All of these events would happen in the future( in June 1848, the Grand-duke is in Florence and the liberals are in power) and will not necessarily eventuate, but the problems of Tuscany will need to be solved. Notwithstanding this, Leopold is anyway an Habsburg-Lorena (although much less than a stooge as Francesco V was) and this cannot be ignored.

Mazzini was in Milan on 7 April 1848, arriving from Paris. He didn't rock the boat, and contributed to mediate between Cattaneo and Casati (he was not too happy with the annexation of Lombardy to Sardinia, but considered it a necessary evil). IOTL, he went to Switzerland after the battle of Custoza, then to Marseille and by boat to Leghorn on the way to Rome (the democrat government in power at the time was not too elated by his passage, and in February refused the federation with the Roman republic which Mazzini proposed).

Garibaldi arrived on 23 June in Italy (as @Tarabas said), so the war is practically over. He might have gone to Venice, or Bologna, or joined the Tuscan and Papal volunteers. If the situation in Rome evolves like OTL, he'll go there for sure. A French or Franco-Sardinian intervention to restore the pope is possible, or maybe not, but it is still far in the future and a lot of things might change.

The Italian Confederation doesn't look like the best bet at this stage, unless republics may be part of it.

Apologies for the long post
Oh well, the revolts have broken out in Romagna, doesn't matter where the legate is since in a few weeks the entire region is going to be set ablaze...

About the two dukes, I really didn't know any of this to be honest, I just figured that they've just fled from the rebellion not that they were petty nobles unwilling or unfit to rule so what I ask is: is there some kind of replacement for them? Or I'll just assume that they've fled to Saxony and England and their provisional government opts to be annexed by Sardinia and the deal is done?

About Tuscany, the victory in the north might be what the liberals need to push through some of their reforms whose failing caused the government to collapse OTL but ITTL the monarchists definitely have a better hand thanks to the performance of CA and his army.

A confederal Italy is out of the question now: Piedmont and the patriots have been "betrayed" by their southern brethen and the people is not happy. Despite that this is going to be covered in the next chapters, I feel that there are two possible outcomes: a Federation in the north (including Tuscany) a la NGF, the pope in the centre and Naples in the south with Sicily as s Piedmontian proxy. Or, if things get messy (and they really could ITTL) we might have an early unification in the early 1850s with Rome annexed after the revolution and Naples occupied at the first occasion which could be a liberal uprising or coup.
 
Oh well, the revolts have broken out in Romagna, doesn't matter where the legate is since in a few weeks the entire region is going to be set ablaze...

About the two dukes, I really didn't know any of this to be honest, I just figured that they've just fled from the rebellion not that they were petty nobles unwilling or unfit to rule so what I ask is: is there some kind of replacement for them? Or I'll just assume that they've fled to Saxony and England and their provisional government opts to be annexed by Sardinia and the deal is done?

About Tuscany, the victory in the north might be what the liberals need to push through some of their reforms whose failing caused the government to collapse OTL but ITTL the monarchists definitely have a better hand thanks to the performance of CA and his army.

A confederal Italy is out of the question now: Piedmont and the patriots have been "betrayed" by their southern brethen and the people is not happy. Despite that this is going to be covered in the next chapters, I feel that there are two possible outcomes: a Federation in the north (including Tuscany) a la NGF, the pope in the centre and Naples in the south with Sicily as s Piedmontian proxy. Or, if things get messy (and they really could ITTL) we might have an early unification in the early 1850s with Rome annexed after the revolution and Naples occupied at the first occasion which could be a liberal uprising or coup.
I pretty much agree with your analysis. I personally see the Duchies and the Legations annexed soon. The Pope is helpless to stop it as Durando is now with CA. Now, Tuscany could see the writing on the wall and call for the formation of a Northern Italian Federation (Leopold had signed the preliminaries of the customs union with Sardinia and the Papal States after all) but this would just result in a federation of two States in which Tuscany will only be the junior partner. Annexation with the Granduchy semi-autonomous is a possibility, but I don't feel like Leopold would accept this. Regarding the Pope in the center: if the Legations rebel, I don't see why Umbria and the Marche would not do this. A compromise could be a rump Papal State in Lazio with Umbria and the Marche annexed to Tuscany to counter Sardinia. Regarding Naples: Ferdinand is no Francis. He might be forced to accept the fait accompli in Sicily but he won't give up his reign without a fight. I believe your chances of an earlier annexation of the South without a war is to kill Ferdinand earlier, which may well happen.

By the way, I am loving the TL so far, and really enjoying the discussion.
 

Deleted member 147289

I pretty much agree with your analysis. I personally see the Duchies and the Legations annexed soon. The Pope is helpless to stop it as Durando is now with CA. Now, Tuscany could see the writing on the wall and call for the formation of a Northern Italian Federation (Leopold had signed the preliminaries of the customs union with Sardinia and the Papal States after all) but this would just result in a federation of two States in which Tuscany will only be the junior partner. Annexation with the Granduchy semi-autonomous is a possibility, but I don't feel like Leopold would accept this. Regarding the Pope in the center: if the Legations rebel, I don't see why Umbria and the Marche would not do this. A compromise could be a rump Papal State in Lazio with Umbria and the Marche annexed to Tuscany to counter Sardinia. Regarding Naples: Ferdinand is no Francis. He might be forced to accept the fait accompli in Sicily but he won't give up his reign without a fight. I believe your chances of an earlier annexation of the South without a war is to kill Ferdinand earlier, which may well happen.

By the way, I am loving the TL so far, and really enjoying the discussion.
Thanks!

In a few chapters from here we'll adopt a more comprehensive worldview with certain updates centred around Italy and for important events so later events might be a bit less detailed than this.
 
Oh well, the revolts have broken out in Romagna, doesn't matter where the legate is since in a few weeks the entire region is going to be set ablaze...

About the two dukes, I really didn't know any of this to be honest, I just figured that they've just fled from the rebellion not that they were petty nobles unwilling or unfit to rule so what I ask is: is there some kind of replacement for them? Or I'll just assume that they've fled to Saxony and England and their provisional government opts to be annexed by Sardinia and the deal is done?

About Tuscany, the victory in the north might be what the liberals need to push through some of their reforms whose failing caused the government to collapse OTL but ITTL the monarchists definitely have a better hand thanks to the performance of CA and his army.

A confederal Italy is out of the question now: Piedmont and the patriots have been "betrayed" by their southern brethen and the people is not happy. Despite that this is going to be covered in the next chapters, I feel that there are two possible outcomes: a Federation in the north (including Tuscany) a la NGF, the pope in the centre and Naples in the south with Sicily as s Piedmontian proxy. Or, if things get messy (and they really could ITTL) we might have an early unification in the early 1850s with Rome annexed after the revolution and Naples occupied at the first occasion which could be a liberal uprising or coup.
The problem for the duchies is that there is no real close pretendent, unless you go to the Bourbons (for Parma) and the Habsburgs (for Modena), but this would just open another can of worms.
I was also thinking of the NGC, which was essentially a huge Prussia with some annexes. However the NCG included also a few Free Cities (Hamburg, Bremen and Lubeck, IIRC), and this approach might work in Italy too.
What about a solution like this: Piedmont annexes Lombardy, Veneto and Friuli up to the border, with the only exception of Venice which remains republican (but part of the Confederation), within the old Dogado borders; Carlo of Parma is given a second chance (under strict supervision: he is thick, conceited and a spendthrift, but probably can see the writing on the wall if he is kicked hard), looses Piacenza to Piedmont but gains back Guastalla (which is father had to cede to Austria); Modena, Reggio, Bologna, Ferrara and Romagna (add Marche too, since the harbor of Ancona is too important) are the main problem to be addressed, and I'll do it later on; Leopold of Tuscany also keeps his throne under probation and supervision, and can get back the Lunigiana he ceded to Modena when acquired Lucca.

The Italian Confederation will be chaired by the king of Sardinia, and will include also Sicily, of course. The Confederal Parliament may be located in Milan or in Verona, and would legislate on:
  • free movement of citizens within the territory of the Confederation
  • a common postal system
  • common passports
  • equal rights for the different religious denominations
  • unified measures and weights (with the obligatory introduction of the metric system)
  • penal code
  • confederal taxation (for services provided by the Confederation, such as a confederal army, postal services and so on)
  • interprovincial commerce (all the members will be obviously in a customs union, and a Confederal currency will be established)
All the members would elect representatives to the Confederal parliament (the first election will be called according to the decision of each member, but afterwards a common electoral system must be legislate upon, probably based on qualified majorities).
I suppose that a Constitutional Convention has to be called, with delegates from all members: it will not be an easy or swift endeavor (and the same applies to the many laws within the purview of the Confederal Parliament), but this might all be to the good (it gives a chance to see how things shape up in Italy before enshrining duties and rights in a constitution). In the interim, the Sardinian Statute will be provisionally applied by all the member states.

Provisionally, the Sardinian army will be the Confederal army, under the king of Sardinia as CiC; all the members will be required to send troops as required by the king of Sardinia. The member states are allowed to raise troops within their border, but also this will have to be regulated.

It is not a perfect system (and is obviously shamelessly copied by the way Bismarck set up the NCG), but I don't see any reasonable alterative, given the way things are in flux. However, the way I am setting up things it's a Confederation that is trying hard to become a full-fledged Federation.
It's also quite obvious that, at least for the time being, when the king of Sardinia says "Jump!" the other members ask "How high?".

Now to the problem of the cities of Emilia plus Romagna and Marche: my idea would be to establish a federation including Modena, Reggio, Bologna and Ferrara (call it the United Provinces of Emilia) with a republican system, including a federal and 4 provincial governments); for Romagna and Marche I can see either the establishment of a principality, the king of Sardinia getting the crown in personal union, or another republican federation (in either case, local government would be granted). Given the sensitive position of this province, close to the Papal States and the kingdom of Naples, my vote would be for the principality.
 
I pretty much agree with your analysis. I personally see the Duchies and the Legations annexed soon. The Pope is helpless to stop it as Durando is now with CA. Now, Tuscany could see the writing on the wall and call for the formation of a Northern Italian Federation (Leopold had signed the preliminaries of the customs union with Sardinia and the Papal States after all) but this would just result in a federation of two States in which Tuscany will only be the junior partner. Annexation with the Granduchy semi-autonomous is a possibility, but I don't feel like Leopold would accept this. Regarding the Pope in the center: if the Legations rebel, I don't see why Umbria and the Marche would not do this. A compromise could be a rump Papal State in Lazio with Umbria and the Marche annexed to Tuscany to counter Sardinia. Regarding Naples: Ferdinand is no Francis. He might be forced to accept the fait accompli in Sicily but he won't give up his reign without a fight. I believe your chances of an earlier annexation of the South without a war is to kill Ferdinand earlier, which may well happen.

By the way, I am loving the TL so far, and really enjoying the discussion.
I don't think a Tuscany straddling Italy from sea to sea on the border with Papal States and Naples is a good idea, and Leopold should be happy to keep his throne (plus he would be getting a few tidbits).
What would be funny, it is the idea that a Roman Republic might come to be in TTL too (I don't believe the Consistory will be more rational than it was IOTL), including Latium and Umbria. Then this republic asks to join the Italian Confederation :)
Regarding Naples, leave Ferdinand simmer in the broth he cooked. There is no need to make big efforts, unless Ferdinand goes on a rampage.
 
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