I believe that the "United Provinces of Emilia" proposed by @LordKalvan a few posts ago is the best option.
Italico Valore - A more successful 1848 revolution in Italy - a TL
I do wonder if Durando's troops might not march towards Rome, demanding reforms and ultimately precipitating the riots in Rome and the flight of the pope. It is still going to end with a Roman Republic, but this time around the republic would have much better teeth (and a real army which has proven itself in the field).
ITTL, there is no outside power who can (or will) interfere, with the only possible exception of Cavaignac's France, but it would require a major expeditionary force and would displease a lot the British. Additionally, there are two articles in the Republican Constitution: one renouncing all expansionist wars, and the other announcing that France will not fight against the will of foreign people: I believe that Cavaignac is ultimately faithful to the spirit and to the letter of the constitution, certainly much more than LN proved to be.
Then the story can follow the path of OTL, at least as far as the Roman affairs are concerned: a Provisional Government is established in Rome, the temporal power of the Pope is declared to be ended, but the Pope is invited to come back in his spiritual role, head of the Catholic church and bishop of Rome with full guarantees of no government interference in religious aspects. Envoys are dispatched to Gaeta, with the formal invitation to return, but they are stopped at the border with the kingdom of Naples since the pope refuses even to meet them. Elections are called in Rome and Umbria for late January 1849 (I would assume that the Provisional Government will be smart enough to realize that the former Legations have gone for good, and judicious enough to accept this development) and both Mazzini and Garibaldi would be on their way to Rome (IOTL Garibaldi run for the Roman Parliament in Macerata, Marche, but ITTL he'll have to select another place).
ITTL, there is no outside power who can (or will) interfere, with the only possible exception of Cavaignac's France, but it would require a major expeditionary force and would displease a lot the British. Additionally, there are two articles in the Republican Constitution: one renouncing all expansionist wars, and the other announcing that France will not fight against the will of foreign people: I believe that Cavaignac is ultimately faithful to the spirit and to the letter of the constitution, certainly much more than LN proved to be.
Then the story can follow the path of OTL, at least as far as the Roman affairs are concerned: a Provisional Government is established in Rome, the temporal power of the Pope is declared to be ended, but the Pope is invited to come back in his spiritual role, head of the Catholic church and bishop of Rome with full guarantees of no government interference in religious aspects. Envoys are dispatched to Gaeta, with the formal invitation to return, but they are stopped at the border with the kingdom of Naples since the pope refuses even to meet them. Elections are called in Rome and Umbria for late January 1849 (I would assume that the Provisional Government will be smart enough to realize that the former Legations have gone for good, and judicious enough to accept this development) and both Mazzini and Garibaldi would be on their way to Rome (IOTL Garibaldi run for the Roman Parliament in Macerata, Marche, but ITTL he'll have to select another place).
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I really do like the idea of Durando going to Rome. And I agree with your analysis a lot. Nobody is intervening here, and soon the RR will join the Federation.
You're probably biased, because you want your Umbria in the Roman Republic with Mazzini and Garibaldi
I quite fancy the idea of TTL "me" (meaning my closest genetic doppelgänger in the male line) proudly presenting himself around Europe as a citizen of the Roman Republic, what can I say?You're probably biased, because you want your Umbria in the Roman Republic with Mazzini and Garibaldi
15. 1849 (January-July)
Deleted member 147289
15. 1849 (January-June)
1849 promised to be another year of patriotic struggle across Europe from 1st January, politically like in Germany or military like Italy and Hungary.
The proclamation of the Roman Republic and the Pope's escape to Gaeta had created a power vacuum in the center of the peninsula that the Savoy were moving to fill with the army that reached the border with Two Sicilies at the port of Ascoli, while the Durando's army accompanied by the 1st Corps of Bava had turned towards Rome, the target of the campaign. Roman and Umbrian patriots had already come to meet the army, welcoming them with all the feasts possible just as happened in Veneto six months ago, to lead them to the city while revolutionary ambassadors were already at the Tuscan and Piedmontese court to obtain guarantees and support for the newly proclaimed state. General elections were held on January 21 and the republic led by the triumvirs Mazzini, Armellini and Saffi was proclaimed on February 8, the first of which was by far the most important. Although deeply averse to the monarchy and a republican in his heart, Mazzini understood that at this moment the power and prestige of the monarchy were too high to be overthrown and an attempt to resist the monarchical armies would only worsen the republican situation so, as months ago had happened in the north, he was convinced that it was time to collaborate with the Savoys to make Italy for which he sent messengers to Bava and Durando inviting them to enter the city to protect it from the papal reaction and a letter to Carlo Alberto, his great rival, in which he asked for the entry of the Roman Republic into the North Italian Confederation which was being built in Milan.
The first session of the Constitutional Assembly
On February 1 there were confederal elections in all Italian territories influenced by Sardinia and the election had led to the establishment of a constituent assembly in the city of Milan with the aim of defining the internal structure of the new state. There were various factions within the assembly including the expressions of the Historical Right and Historical Left that were in agreement on many aspects, a small group of Republicans who proved to be very rowdy, some regionalist groups such as the Venetians and Sicilians and the ever-present liberals. The assembly opened with a speech by Carlo Alberto who stressed that arms had expelled foreigners and that it was now up to words to create Italy. The first months of discussion, dominated by the historical Right and Left, led to the following points:
The Roman Republic had sent messages to the Pope to Gaeta from the moment of his birth, inviting him to return to the city and to assume his role as bishop of Rome and spiritual leader of Catholicism, requests that the pontiff had always categorically rejected with the utmost insistence: Pius IX was unable to realize that the Papal States was a relic of the past that had no place in the modern world and stumbled upon the recovery of Rome, sending messengers to Catholic powers such as France and Spain, but the former under the Cavignac government was not willing to embark in foreign military adventures because of his internal hardships and good relations with the Kingdom of Sardinia that had occupied the papal state while Spain was enveloped by a civil war between Carlist and Bourbon pretenders who had paralyzed the peninsula. The Two Sicilies were the only state that had responded to the Pope's call but Ferdinando II did not want to risk a clash with the richer and more powerful north that had control of the Tyrrhenian Sea, Sicily and central Italy. The Bourbon army would emerge defeated and the king simply sent a note of protest while the pope had to resign himself to a long exile in Gaeta while waiting for a change in Rome.
In Hungary the revolt had resulted in an open war between Austria and rebels. Ferdinand I had finally abdicated, having lost the last bits of clarity that remained due to the loss of Italy and the riots in the main cities of the Empire. Prince Schwarzenberg easily managed to maneuver the young emperor Franz Joseph, crowned in Vienna after the abdication of his uncle and the renunciation of his father, and maintain his post as Prime Minister of the Empire. The Hungarian armies had meanwhile expelled the Austrian presence from the nation, although an imperial army occupied Buda, the rest of the national territory was free and the Austrian armies that had crossed the borders had suffered numerous defeats. Arthur Görgey began a victorious campaign in the spring aimed at expelling once and for all the Germans from the Magyar lands, repeatedly defeating Prince Alfred. This succession of military victories gave a confidence injection to the Hungarian parliament meeting in Debrecen which proclaimed the independence of the nation on April 14 in response to the Austrian Constitution of March which had relegated Hungary to an insignificant province. The continuous military successes, however, hid the difficulties of Hungarian life, made up of privations and sacrifices: there were no nearby ports or allies with which they could trade, but only Russia that was massing its armies on the borders of Galicia. Once they took control of the country, the Hungarian armies split into two: one would protect Budapest from the Austrian advance in the summer while the other army would protect the Carpathians from any Russian raids but one thing was clear: unless some power intrudes in the revolt would have ended before 1850.
Hungarian patriots proved themselves brave and reckless fighters, defeating the Imperial army many times
In France Cavignac had been elected first president of the republic thanks to his great fame within the constituent assembly which had meanwhile become a national assembly. Although reborn, France was not without its problems: the memories of the days of June still caused widespread discontent among urban proletarian classes, especially Parisian ones, who had seen their requests for rights repressed in blood. Something had to be done before the Democrats had managed to channel this uneasiness of the masses into electoral votes that would have led to a new revolution, so the government's job would have been to heal the social divide and build a vibrant and compact republican society. Cavignac's first year was devoted entirely to resolving internal issues such as unemployment and expanding the social rights of the population traumatized by last year's revolution. In this climate of "isolation" international adventures were not well seen also because the money of the army (the strongest on the continent) could be spent on the economic recovery rather than squandered away from France, so when the Pope's request came Cavignac refused to participate in the expedition. The government also proposed incentives and privileges for all French who would emigrate to Algeria to colonize the land and bring civilization, starting the trend of mass European immigration to the colonial territories of North Africa with the consequent expulsion of the natives and local insurrections that would plague the region until the twentieth century.
In the German area, the parliament of Frankfurt had finally come, after months of debate, to adopt the solution of Greater Germany than the Small one, this meant that Austria and Bohemia would be an integral part of the united German nation, instead of being excluded from the union as provided for in the Small solution. MEPs had finished drafting the constitution in late March, an imperial but highly liberal constitution that aimed to transform the myriad of ted states in a single state, free, democratic and protected by one of the great German ruling families. The candidates for the role of leader of the Empire were Austria, Prussia and Bavaria. Although Austria had lost a lot of prestige with the expulsion from Italy it had managed to regain control of Vienna and Prague (but Hungary was still in revolt) and Prussia had humiliated herself with the defeat in the Slesvig war, leading delegates to believe that the Habsburgs, former presidents of the Confederation, could accept the crown and sent a delegation to Vienna which was received by Prince Schwarzenberg. The prince refused to make a decision on the crown until the delegates provided assurances about the continued Viennese hegemony over Confederal affairs and the future of the rest of the Habsburg empire outside the Federation. While parliament again divided between for and against the proposal, a delegation of proposing deputies from Little Germany went to Berlin asking for an audience with Frederick William IV, offering him the imperial crown that the reactionary king refused, unable to accept a crown from below. With this refusal and the impossibility of reaching an agreement on the concessions requested by Austria the idea of a united German empire died in the Paulkirche but, the successes of the previous year in deciding the extension of the Zollverein to the whole Confederation and the creation of the Confederal Fleet convinced the deputies to try a third time to create a compromise that would not lead to a united nation but that would tighten the bonds between the members of the Confederation, strengthening its structure.
1849 promised to be another year of patriotic struggle across Europe from 1st January, politically like in Germany or military like Italy and Hungary.
The proclamation of the Roman Republic and the Pope's escape to Gaeta had created a power vacuum in the center of the peninsula that the Savoy were moving to fill with the army that reached the border with Two Sicilies at the port of Ascoli, while the Durando's army accompanied by the 1st Corps of Bava had turned towards Rome, the target of the campaign. Roman and Umbrian patriots had already come to meet the army, welcoming them with all the feasts possible just as happened in Veneto six months ago, to lead them to the city while revolutionary ambassadors were already at the Tuscan and Piedmontese court to obtain guarantees and support for the newly proclaimed state. General elections were held on January 21 and the republic led by the triumvirs Mazzini, Armellini and Saffi was proclaimed on February 8, the first of which was by far the most important. Although deeply averse to the monarchy and a republican in his heart, Mazzini understood that at this moment the power and prestige of the monarchy were too high to be overthrown and an attempt to resist the monarchical armies would only worsen the republican situation so, as months ago had happened in the north, he was convinced that it was time to collaborate with the Savoys to make Italy for which he sent messengers to Bava and Durando inviting them to enter the city to protect it from the papal reaction and a letter to Carlo Alberto, his great rival, in which he asked for the entry of the Roman Republic into the North Italian Confederation which was being built in Milan.
The first session of the Constitutional Assembly
On February 1 there were confederal elections in all Italian territories influenced by Sardinia and the election had led to the establishment of a constituent assembly in the city of Milan with the aim of defining the internal structure of the new state. There were various factions within the assembly including the expressions of the Historical Right and Historical Left that were in agreement on many aspects, a small group of Republicans who proved to be very rowdy, some regionalist groups such as the Venetians and Sicilians and the ever-present liberals. The assembly opened with a speech by Carlo Alberto who stressed that arms had expelled foreigners and that it was now up to words to create Italy. The first months of discussion, dominated by the historical Right and Left, led to the following points:
- The title of president of the federation would have belonged to the king of Sardinia who could transmit it by inheritance
- The creation of a Confederal parliament based in Milan and members of the whole Confederation elected with the Sicilian model, i.e. all males over the age of 21 who knew how to read and write (it was not written that census was still important for counting votes ) and a parliament that should have represented the requests of individual states within the Confederation, also based in Milan, but for a law the double approval of the Confederal and Regional Parliament was not necessary, the consent of the chamber which had proposed it was sufficient.
- The President of the Confederation had a veto over the laws that could be overcome with the consent of the majority of 2/3 of the parliamentarians of the chamber who had proposed the law, the President could make proposals for the law and appointed the Prime Minister who governed for His Majesty.
- Freedom of movement for all citizens within the Confederal territory without the need for passports or passes and the adoption of a single passport and document system.
- The elimination of all internal customs barriers and the conferment of trade regulations to the confederal parliament, the mandatory adoption of the universal measurement system.
- Freedom of worship, which affected Jewish and Protestant minorities in Italy who had been in favor of the revolution.
The Roman Republic had sent messages to the Pope to Gaeta from the moment of his birth, inviting him to return to the city and to assume his role as bishop of Rome and spiritual leader of Catholicism, requests that the pontiff had always categorically rejected with the utmost insistence: Pius IX was unable to realize that the Papal States was a relic of the past that had no place in the modern world and stumbled upon the recovery of Rome, sending messengers to Catholic powers such as France and Spain, but the former under the Cavignac government was not willing to embark in foreign military adventures because of his internal hardships and good relations with the Kingdom of Sardinia that had occupied the papal state while Spain was enveloped by a civil war between Carlist and Bourbon pretenders who had paralyzed the peninsula. The Two Sicilies were the only state that had responded to the Pope's call but Ferdinando II did not want to risk a clash with the richer and more powerful north that had control of the Tyrrhenian Sea, Sicily and central Italy. The Bourbon army would emerge defeated and the king simply sent a note of protest while the pope had to resign himself to a long exile in Gaeta while waiting for a change in Rome.
In Hungary the revolt had resulted in an open war between Austria and rebels. Ferdinand I had finally abdicated, having lost the last bits of clarity that remained due to the loss of Italy and the riots in the main cities of the Empire. Prince Schwarzenberg easily managed to maneuver the young emperor Franz Joseph, crowned in Vienna after the abdication of his uncle and the renunciation of his father, and maintain his post as Prime Minister of the Empire. The Hungarian armies had meanwhile expelled the Austrian presence from the nation, although an imperial army occupied Buda, the rest of the national territory was free and the Austrian armies that had crossed the borders had suffered numerous defeats. Arthur Görgey began a victorious campaign in the spring aimed at expelling once and for all the Germans from the Magyar lands, repeatedly defeating Prince Alfred. This succession of military victories gave a confidence injection to the Hungarian parliament meeting in Debrecen which proclaimed the independence of the nation on April 14 in response to the Austrian Constitution of March which had relegated Hungary to an insignificant province. The continuous military successes, however, hid the difficulties of Hungarian life, made up of privations and sacrifices: there were no nearby ports or allies with which they could trade, but only Russia that was massing its armies on the borders of Galicia. Once they took control of the country, the Hungarian armies split into two: one would protect Budapest from the Austrian advance in the summer while the other army would protect the Carpathians from any Russian raids but one thing was clear: unless some power intrudes in the revolt would have ended before 1850.
Hungarian patriots proved themselves brave and reckless fighters, defeating the Imperial army many times
In France Cavignac had been elected first president of the republic thanks to his great fame within the constituent assembly which had meanwhile become a national assembly. Although reborn, France was not without its problems: the memories of the days of June still caused widespread discontent among urban proletarian classes, especially Parisian ones, who had seen their requests for rights repressed in blood. Something had to be done before the Democrats had managed to channel this uneasiness of the masses into electoral votes that would have led to a new revolution, so the government's job would have been to heal the social divide and build a vibrant and compact republican society. Cavignac's first year was devoted entirely to resolving internal issues such as unemployment and expanding the social rights of the population traumatized by last year's revolution. In this climate of "isolation" international adventures were not well seen also because the money of the army (the strongest on the continent) could be spent on the economic recovery rather than squandered away from France, so when the Pope's request came Cavignac refused to participate in the expedition. The government also proposed incentives and privileges for all French who would emigrate to Algeria to colonize the land and bring civilization, starting the trend of mass European immigration to the colonial territories of North Africa with the consequent expulsion of the natives and local insurrections that would plague the region until the twentieth century.
In the German area, the parliament of Frankfurt had finally come, after months of debate, to adopt the solution of Greater Germany than the Small one, this meant that Austria and Bohemia would be an integral part of the united German nation, instead of being excluded from the union as provided for in the Small solution. MEPs had finished drafting the constitution in late March, an imperial but highly liberal constitution that aimed to transform the myriad of ted states in a single state, free, democratic and protected by one of the great German ruling families. The candidates for the role of leader of the Empire were Austria, Prussia and Bavaria. Although Austria had lost a lot of prestige with the expulsion from Italy it had managed to regain control of Vienna and Prague (but Hungary was still in revolt) and Prussia had humiliated herself with the defeat in the Slesvig war, leading delegates to believe that the Habsburgs, former presidents of the Confederation, could accept the crown and sent a delegation to Vienna which was received by Prince Schwarzenberg. The prince refused to make a decision on the crown until the delegates provided assurances about the continued Viennese hegemony over Confederal affairs and the future of the rest of the Habsburg empire outside the Federation. While parliament again divided between for and against the proposal, a delegation of proposing deputies from Little Germany went to Berlin asking for an audience with Frederick William IV, offering him the imperial crown that the reactionary king refused, unable to accept a crown from below. With this refusal and the impossibility of reaching an agreement on the concessions requested by Austria the idea of a united German empire died in the Paulkirche but, the successes of the previous year in deciding the extension of the Zollverein to the whole Confederation and the creation of the Confederal Fleet convinced the deputies to try a third time to create a compromise that would not lead to a united nation but that would tighten the bonds between the members of the Confederation, strengthening its structure.
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A good update, but unsurprisingly I have a few comments:
Now, looking at Germany I am starting to wonder if the opposite might not happen.
IOTL, Prussia was successful in repressing the liberal attempts within its own border, and later in 1849 assumed the role of policeman, sending troops to revert the smaller German states to pre-1848 institutions. Prussia did not stop here, though: looking at the troubles that had been plaguing Austria, they thought the moment had come to challenge the dominant position of Austria in the German Confederation, and created the Union of Erfurt, which was a smaller confederation in which Prussia was the top dog. Austria took it very badly, and in 1851 the Prussian king was convened at Olmutz, where he was forced to sign the so-called Punctuation of Olmutz, which cancelled the Union of Erfurt and recognised the emperor of Austria as the undisputed President of the German Confederation. This humiliation was never forgotten by Prussia, and sparked the army reforms and modernization which ultimately ended with the Prussian victory in the war of 1866.
IMHO, the first part of OTL history will be repeated, but this time around the Punctuation of Olmutz will not happen, considering also the weaker position of Austria ITTL. Maybe there will be some sort of compromise, sponsored by Russia which doesn't want to see two conservative powers at each other throat: Austria would keep the presidency of the Confederation, but Prussia will be granted the role of top dog in north-western Germany. This may well result in a more satisfied Prussia, which has less reasons to embark on costly reforms and modernization, and will delay the timetable for the ultimately showdown between Austria and Prussia by a decade at least, which should have very interesting effects on European history.
It is unnecessary (as well as very unpolitical) to send the 1st Corps of the Piedmontese army to Rome. The former papal army under Durando, bloodied in the plains of Veneto and with a very high morale, is more than enough to spark the riots in Rome and the flight of the pope (the Swiss Guard and the odd-and-sods of mercenaries still on the pope payroll cannot certainly oppose them with good odds of success. My guess is that after the flight of the pope to Gaeta, and the news of Durando getting closer to Rome, both the Swiss Guard and the mercenaries will march toward the southern border, and join the pope in Gaeta.
Given the posturing of the Russians on the eastern border and the Austrians marching toward Hungary, I'd say that now it is a good time for the Hungarians to try and make an arrangement with Vienna, and von Schwarzenberg should be able to see the wisdom of this approach (which will be sponsored also by France and UK, although the Czar would certainly prefer that the Hungarian rebels are trounced). Maybe an early Ausgleich, and a (conservative) constitution would allow to reach a peaceful compromise.
This happened IOTL, but I've a feeling that Cavaignac, who has a first-hand knowledge of Algeria as a general but also as a governor, might see the opportunity to temper the flood of European migrants with concessions to the locals. It would be also consistent with the spirit and the letter of the French republican constitution, although it would also entail a strong effort to spread French culture and language.
I was musing about the fact that the successful campaign against the Austrian in Northern Italy has quickly snowballed into a very advanced Italian Confederation and what I consider a much better arrangement of the peninsula (although I've a deep suspicion that the sudden widening of the franchise may bring some problems of its own and frighten conservatives. Maybe keeping the age barrier at 23 or 25 years would have been wiser). Overall, I'd say that Italy as a whole has gained at least a 15 years or more advantage compared to OTL.
Now, looking at Germany I am starting to wonder if the opposite might not happen.
IOTL, Prussia was successful in repressing the liberal attempts within its own border, and later in 1849 assumed the role of policeman, sending troops to revert the smaller German states to pre-1848 institutions. Prussia did not stop here, though: looking at the troubles that had been plaguing Austria, they thought the moment had come to challenge the dominant position of Austria in the German Confederation, and created the Union of Erfurt, which was a smaller confederation in which Prussia was the top dog. Austria took it very badly, and in 1851 the Prussian king was convened at Olmutz, where he was forced to sign the so-called Punctuation of Olmutz, which cancelled the Union of Erfurt and recognised the emperor of Austria as the undisputed President of the German Confederation. This humiliation was never forgotten by Prussia, and sparked the army reforms and modernization which ultimately ended with the Prussian victory in the war of 1866.
IMHO, the first part of OTL history will be repeated, but this time around the Punctuation of Olmutz will not happen, considering also the weaker position of Austria ITTL. Maybe there will be some sort of compromise, sponsored by Russia which doesn't want to see two conservative powers at each other throat: Austria would keep the presidency of the Confederation, but Prussia will be granted the role of top dog in north-western Germany. This may well result in a more satisfied Prussia, which has less reasons to embark on costly reforms and modernization, and will delay the timetable for the ultimately showdown between Austria and Prussia by a decade at least, which should have very interesting effects on European history.
The Confederal Constitution will include a (limited) charter of rights, which means there will be a common framework.
The fact that certain aspects of social life might differ between republics and monarchies (I'm thinking for example of Workers Organizations and Mutual Help Societies developing along different lines) in IMO beneficial, and - if there's a little luck - even result into mutually beneficial feedbacks.
The future of Italy depends on composing the quarrel with the Catholic Church and implement a reasonable land reform (the same two issues which festered for decades and decades IOTL), but at least in TTL the other parameters are much more positive
Indeed, it might be a good idea to "test" some reforms in part of the Confederation and then extend them to the rest once they have proven successful. Also, Cavour in charge means a skilled and pragmatic government, so I would say that the rights of the workers could be improved a lot. As we know, Cavour had no love for Communism and used the expression "specter of Communism" in 1848 (it is unclear whether he read the Manifest or not) but he recognised the need to improve the workers' conditions to maintain social order. As for the Catholic Church, the situation is tricky. On the one hand, the Pope is in a much weaker position than OTL, so I can see ALT-Siccardi laws being implemented soon in the whole Confederation (maybe with harsher tones in the RR and the rest of the former Papal States). On the other hand, because of this the reaction of the Pope will be sterner than OTL. Can he avoid it? Probably not. But with this electoral law, he might potentially influence a lot the outcome of the elections (I have had a sudden fun thought of parish priests hastily setting up free schools to teach the peasants to read and write in order to get them to vote for catholic candidates; this might be implausible, but it is just to say that the Church is not toothless).
Now, while writing this, I had a few thoughts on the Army. I would say that there is no question that the Confederation neeeds a united Army and a united Navy. Austria might look weak for now, but once the rebellions are over, it will be looking menacing as well. Aso, we cannot forget that the Kingdom-of Citerior Sicily is a hostile neighbor, so I cannot see which arguments the "several nations army" party may have.
There is quite a gulf between the high church and the low church in terms of acceptance of social changes, and even more so in terms of temporal power vs. spiritual power. Pius IX and the Consistory may harbor the hope (or even the certainty) that the clock might start to go backward, and they will probably go on with a number of encyclicals, anathemas and excommunications as it happened IOTL. It doesn't mean that the parish priests and the younger bishops will back them to the hilt (IOTL, Vatican I was not an exercise of rubberstamping all that Pius IX and the Consistory wanted: not only the discussion was quite lively, but quite a significant numbers of attending prelates left early rather than consuming a significant break with the hierarchy). The main opponents of the condemnation of modernism were German theologians, but in Italy too the church positions were far from be universally subscribed (even prelates as high as the archbishop of Bologna was very critical, and left Vatican I early). Pius IX's position is certainly weaker than OTL, and with the passage of time it will not improve (not to mention that Pius IX has to find a place to go in the not too unlikely event that the kingdom of Naples folds up. Where would he go? Austria always refused to give him sanctuary, Spain is a bit of a mess, the church in France has traditionally been more subservient to Paris than to Rome. Bavaria or Belgium come to mind, but a pope-in-exile is not a very welcome guest anyway).
I don't think there will be an Italian equivalent of Bismarck's Kulturkampf, but it is quite possible that anti-clericalism will be on the raise.
I am fully in favor of a Confederation navy, but a Confederation army may take more time. As I said before, this Confederation is not averse to follow the playbook of the North Confederation (where states had their own more-or-less-functional army), Sardinia has to watch the two main borders east and west, Roman Republic, Adria and Sicily all have a border with Naples) and above everything else throwing in a barrel all the existing armies and agitating to mix everything up is not the best way to prove that Sardinia is truly respectful of the other members of the Confederation. A national army will come, in its own time, and when confidence in the new asset of the peninsula has strengthened. For the time being it is better not to change something which has proven to work.
Deleted member 147289
The Church won't react in unity to the recent events as you've said as there would be "patriotic" priests and others loyal to the pope. This in definitely not a schism as the annexation of Rome has not been contested and the mostly Catholic Italy is more in favour of the Confederation than the Pope. Siccardi is going to have a field day with this.
Maybe Durando enters Rome along with some units of the 1st corps not the whole army that should be heading for the border with TS in reality.
The Hungarian situation will be resolved by the end of the year as well as the German one but they will be both compromises, how much depends on the parties involved but one thing is for sure: the old Empire needs some restructuring that a reactionary monarch like young FJ cannot provide.
Cavour's first mandate as PM will be a time of change in Italy, when the first steps to create a truly modern nation state will be taken and it won't always be smooth (remember that CA is still alive and isn't on the best terms with the count)
As for the military,the various fleets will be united into a single navy while a shipbuilding industry develops in Genoa, Venetia and Tuscany that will aim to provide locally produced steamships. The vastly different armies will have to find a common way of fighting and that might take some time; the Sardinian army is the largest and best trained and will provide the bulk of the Confederate army and staff but there are other forces like Tuscany's and leader like Garibaldi which could assume a role in developing guerrilla like warfare or other specialities, much like La Marmora's bersaglieri which will be expanded sinche they have proved their effectiveness.
IOTL, Cavour's friend Balbo is prime minister, therefore I think Cavour will enter the government at the beginning of 1850, almost a year before IOTL, as minister of agriculture and commerce (where he will successfully signs a swathe of free trade agreements with practically all of Europe, same as he did IOTL), will add the portfolio of finances at the beginning of 1851 (same as IOTL) and will become prime minister sometime in 1852, when Balbo will resign due to bad health (same as IOTL, where he replaced D'Azeglio), keeping again all the previous portfolios. It was a meteoric raise, which cannot be compressed more than this, which was facilitated by the successful free trade agreements (but ITTL he'll have also the laurels of the London Conference, as well as the substantial loans he secured from Baring Bank at the same time - IOTL the loans were secured only in 1852, and from Bank Hambro to the tune of 3.6 million pounds, but ITTL the much better and more secure position of Sardinia as well his exposure in London will get the loans earlier and possibly at better conditions and for a larger amount). Considering that by the time he became PM he had also given in concession to British companies two additional railways in Piedmont, set up Ansaldo company in Genoa (locomotives, artillery guns, anything to do with heavy mechanics), created a transatlantic shipping company, and many more achievements, the amount of work the good count could carry was huge and the results astonishing. My bet is that ITTL the Milan-Alessandria railway will be one of the first to be approved (to connect to the Turin-Genoa line), and the works underway for the Milan-Venice railway will be accelerated. Outside of Sardinia, the most necessary one is the connection from Florence to Bologna, and then from Bologna to Milan.
There is no good location in Veneto for a shipyard (the only good one, Monfalcone, is in Austrian hands). I think that the main shipyards will be near Genoa and La Spezia, in Sardinia, near Piombino in Tuscany and Palermo in Sicily.
The Siccardi laws of 1850 were overdue, since finally cancelled old medieval privileges of the church which had become completely anachronistic.
The abolition of the temporal power of the pope (another anachronistic relic, IMHO) was not taken well or easily by Pius IX IOTL, and the same will certainly be the tone ITTL too. However, during the 19th century religion had a strong impact on most of the population, and even CA will be torn between the pride for his TTL successful campaigns and the shock of seeing the pope leaving Rome, he was a devout Catholic, same as his son VE.
I have to check my notes, but it is curious to see how VE attitude was influenced by him being a devout catholic. I believe that he actually studied one of those laws because he was worried about his soul and concluded it was not in contrast with the Catholic faith. The one he could not stand IIRC was regarding civil marriage (which ended up not being implemented). I suppose that ITTL it may be instituted first in the RR, a nice touch. My thoughts regarding the Church's reaction were based on the fear by many in the Subalpine Parliament that allowing the "masses" to vote would have paradoxically led to a more conservative Parliament (with the assumption that peasants who could read and write were still prone to be influenced by parish priests or local magnates). I need to check these things better, I might be mistaken (downturns of listening to podcasts).
16. 1849 (July-December)
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16. 1849 (July-December)
The Roman Republic was admitted to the Constituent Assembly as a full-fledged member of the federation on 7 July 1849 by sending elected deputies in a flash election, often on the recommendation of Mazzini who saw his as the only true republic, Venice was only an oligarchy, to the Assembly of Milan where they quickly made a name for promoting ultra-democratic and republican ideas that earned them the hostility of the rest of the assembly, more on monarchist positions. No European power had come to the rescue of Pius IX who according to information was throwing repeated curses on the Republic and Italy, risking to alienate Catholics in Italy. The Balbo government, which at the time was de facto the Confederal government, hesitated to promulgate laws concerning religion for fear of alienating the masses and pushing them towards papal rhetoric which saw the constitution of a unitary Italian state the end of its temporal power and was making efforts to turn the people against the sovereigns of this united Italy, propaganda immediately found ears in the Neapolitan court, eager to transform the Pope's stay in Gaeta into a blow to international politics, placing itself as the new seat of Catholicism after the fall of Rome. No army was ever organized and the situation in Italy remained stable until the end of the year with the division of the peninsula in North and South. Giuseppe Garibaldi was appointed war minister of the Roman Republic and together with Giovanni Durando he worked to reorganize the army Roman on the Piedmontese model; Garibaldi was also a proponent of a single, centralized army for the confederation, believing that a central command would organize a war more functionally.
In Hungary the situation had become very fluid. The Hungarian National Army had been able to defeat the imperial army several times on the field inflicting losses of prestige such as to push the rest of Europe to consider the Austrian army subpar compared to their view the series of defeats suffered by the Italians and Hungarians. With the approval of the European powers, Kossuth sent messengers to Vienna proposing a conference to resolve the Hungarian question. Anglo-French representatives to the Habsburg court pressured the prime minister to accept the offer and organize a conference on the matter; as soon as the Russians learned of Schwarzenberg's intentions, they too wanted to participate to prevent the Congress of Vienna from being wiped out. So it was that in August a conference was organized in Paris with representatives of the four great powers and Hungary. Austrians and Russians made it clear immediately that they were ready to resume hostilities with the rebels if they had not obtained an at least satisfactory agreement and this pushed the sides to commit themselves to finding an acceptable compromise. Consensus was finally reached by proclaiming Hungary an "autonomous" region within the empire, in control of its internal and monetary policy even though the guilder was linked to the Austrian crown; Hungary would become a constitutional monarchy with the emperor of Austria as head of state and an imperial representative who sat in the Budapest parliament as a guarantee and had the veto power on subjects on a list. Foreign policy and defense would have been due to Austria but Hungary had to contribute to fielding its own army. Every 5 years there would have been a conference between the two crowns called Ausgleich in which the representatives would have reviewed the treaty and if they would have modified it if it had been incomplete.
The end of the Frankfurt Parliement marked the end of the idea of a united German state, leading it's delegates to start looking in their geographical region rather than the whole of Germany
After the failure in crowning the Emperor of Austria or the Prussian King the delegates spent the whole summer working out a new solution for Germany's dream and the result was the Confederal solution: The Frankfurt parliament would become the representative body of the Confederation, making official the end of the Confederate Diet, and each state German would have elected representatives by its own method even if the preferred one was to grant the vote to "independent" adult males, a definition that varied from country to country. There would have been a confederal budget to which the various states would have had to contribute with a small percentage of their collections; the Reichsflotte was officially created and its direction given to Prince Adalbert of Prussia while it was decided to maintain the armies of individual states instead of a common one but it was established that in case of war a unified command would be created. The archduke of Austria would remain president of the confederation by virtue of the Habsburg prestige and parliament would conduct an internal policy aimed at uniting the confederation, among whose objectives we can find: the adoption of a single system of measures and documents, complete economic integration and basic social networks desired by radicals; any conflict within the confederation would have been resolved in parliament. Soon after learning of this massive increase in power by the rdical Parliement, opposed by most of the larger states, their monarchs strongly protested, with the Austrian and Prussian ones retreating their delegates. Without the support of the major German powers soon the other princes retreated their delegates and soon there were only a handful, not enough for the assembly quorum. In this dire situation the radical republicans took over and moved the Parliement to Stuggart to evade Confederate troops that were rumored to be coming to close the Parleiment as Prussian troops were restoring order in all northern Germany. Here a more radical repubblican constitution, inspired by both the French and American model, was drafted but soon after learning this the Duke of Baden ordered the Parliement closed and the delegates dispersed as it happened in the fall. Whth the crushing of the Parliement and it's liberal ideas the German Confederation with it's old borders was reinstated and many of the conquests of Frankfurt were cancelled such as the Reichsflotte and a severe reduction in the trade privileges for the Zollverein
The period 1848-1849 led to great changes in Europe: the abolition of the monarchy in France was the first, followed by the realization of the Italian Independence and the partial success of Frankfurt which, although it had failed to achieve a Reich, had managed to strengthen the Bund. The supporters of the congress in Vienna, Austria and Russia were experiencing two different situations: the first was humiliated and exhausted by the revolutions and withdrew into itself, while Russia emerged unharmed. In two years the Congress of Vienna had been undone and history changed forever.
The Roman Republic was admitted to the Constituent Assembly as a full-fledged member of the federation on 7 July 1849 by sending elected deputies in a flash election, often on the recommendation of Mazzini who saw his as the only true republic, Venice was only an oligarchy, to the Assembly of Milan where they quickly made a name for promoting ultra-democratic and republican ideas that earned them the hostility of the rest of the assembly, more on monarchist positions. No European power had come to the rescue of Pius IX who according to information was throwing repeated curses on the Republic and Italy, risking to alienate Catholics in Italy. The Balbo government, which at the time was de facto the Confederal government, hesitated to promulgate laws concerning religion for fear of alienating the masses and pushing them towards papal rhetoric which saw the constitution of a unitary Italian state the end of its temporal power and was making efforts to turn the people against the sovereigns of this united Italy, propaganda immediately found ears in the Neapolitan court, eager to transform the Pope's stay in Gaeta into a blow to international politics, placing itself as the new seat of Catholicism after the fall of Rome. No army was ever organized and the situation in Italy remained stable until the end of the year with the division of the peninsula in North and South. Giuseppe Garibaldi was appointed war minister of the Roman Republic and together with Giovanni Durando he worked to reorganize the army Roman on the Piedmontese model; Garibaldi was also a proponent of a single, centralized army for the confederation, believing that a central command would organize a war more functionally.
In Hungary the situation had become very fluid. The Hungarian National Army had been able to defeat the imperial army several times on the field inflicting losses of prestige such as to push the rest of Europe to consider the Austrian army subpar compared to their view the series of defeats suffered by the Italians and Hungarians. With the approval of the European powers, Kossuth sent messengers to Vienna proposing a conference to resolve the Hungarian question. Anglo-French representatives to the Habsburg court pressured the prime minister to accept the offer and organize a conference on the matter; as soon as the Russians learned of Schwarzenberg's intentions, they too wanted to participate to prevent the Congress of Vienna from being wiped out. So it was that in August a conference was organized in Paris with representatives of the four great powers and Hungary. Austrians and Russians made it clear immediately that they were ready to resume hostilities with the rebels if they had not obtained an at least satisfactory agreement and this pushed the sides to commit themselves to finding an acceptable compromise. Consensus was finally reached by proclaiming Hungary an "autonomous" region within the empire, in control of its internal and monetary policy even though the guilder was linked to the Austrian crown; Hungary would become a constitutional monarchy with the emperor of Austria as head of state and an imperial representative who sat in the Budapest parliament as a guarantee and had the veto power on subjects on a list. Foreign policy and defense would have been due to Austria but Hungary had to contribute to fielding its own army. Every 5 years there would have been a conference between the two crowns called Ausgleich in which the representatives would have reviewed the treaty and if they would have modified it if it had been incomplete.
The end of the Frankfurt Parliement marked the end of the idea of a united German state, leading it's delegates to start looking in their geographical region rather than the whole of Germany
After the failure in crowning the Emperor of Austria or the Prussian King the delegates spent the whole summer working out a new solution for Germany's dream and the result was the Confederal solution: The Frankfurt parliament would become the representative body of the Confederation, making official the end of the Confederate Diet, and each state German would have elected representatives by its own method even if the preferred one was to grant the vote to "independent" adult males, a definition that varied from country to country. There would have been a confederal budget to which the various states would have had to contribute with a small percentage of their collections; the Reichsflotte was officially created and its direction given to Prince Adalbert of Prussia while it was decided to maintain the armies of individual states instead of a common one but it was established that in case of war a unified command would be created. The archduke of Austria would remain president of the confederation by virtue of the Habsburg prestige and parliament would conduct an internal policy aimed at uniting the confederation, among whose objectives we can find: the adoption of a single system of measures and documents, complete economic integration and basic social networks desired by radicals; any conflict within the confederation would have been resolved in parliament. Soon after learning of this massive increase in power by the rdical Parliement, opposed by most of the larger states, their monarchs strongly protested, with the Austrian and Prussian ones retreating their delegates. Without the support of the major German powers soon the other princes retreated their delegates and soon there were only a handful, not enough for the assembly quorum. In this dire situation the radical republicans took over and moved the Parliement to Stuggart to evade Confederate troops that were rumored to be coming to close the Parleiment as Prussian troops were restoring order in all northern Germany. Here a more radical repubblican constitution, inspired by both the French and American model, was drafted but soon after learning this the Duke of Baden ordered the Parliement closed and the delegates dispersed as it happened in the fall. Whth the crushing of the Parliement and it's liberal ideas the German Confederation with it's old borders was reinstated and many of the conquests of Frankfurt were cancelled such as the Reichsflotte and a severe reduction in the trade privileges for the Zollverein
The period 1848-1849 led to great changes in Europe: the abolition of the monarchy in France was the first, followed by the realization of the Italian Independence and the partial success of Frankfurt which, although it had failed to achieve a Reich, had managed to strengthen the Bund. The supporters of the congress in Vienna, Austria and Russia were experiencing two different situations: the first was humiliated and exhausted by the revolutions and withdrew into itself, while Russia emerged unharmed. In two years the Congress of Vienna had been undone and history changed forever.
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