Makes sense. My dad was part of the infantry unit mobilized to see if it was Oskarshamn that was leaking during Chernobyl before the Soviets admitted that it was their reactor; so I definitely know a bit about Sweden getting hit haha
Exocet - the Effects of a different Falklands
- Thread starter Nevran
- Start date
Man I knew there was something up with that last line, wonder what gets him though, Blair is a youngish guy
Guess it's this that would get worse TTL and end his campaign for Labour leadership.
Blair leaves London after successful heart operation
Prime Minister Tony Blair on Saturday left for a weekend at his country residence a day after undergoing an operation to correct an irregular heartbeat. He was recovering normally, his office said.
www.nbcnews.com
2004 Labour leadership election
Margaret Beckett resigned immediately as party leader after she was returned as MP for Derby South. Having lost seats and vote share, and been unable to put a dent in the Tory majority, she chose to resign as leader instead of face what would be the inevitable demise of her leadership. During her speech at her constituency count, Beckett was emotional at the loss. Close to tears, she criticised the latent sexism which burnt her campaign and the media’s often derogatory and brutal commentary on her. Of course, photos of Beckett crying would be splashed on the front pages of The Sun and The Daily Mail the next day. It would perfectly encapsulate the sexist treatment endured by Beckett. Beckett would leave Parliament before the next general election.
Immediately after the election, all eyes turned to Tony Blair. Blair, ever since his close loss in 2000 against Beckett, had spent his time wisely. Ambitious, Blair stayed in Westminster and rejected, like Brown, moving out of the bubble. Loyal to Beckett, accepting a significant demotion with minimal grumbling, Blair had gained a lot of respect for being a team-player and was thus rewarded by Beckett. When Peter Hain took up a role at the U.N., Blair stepped up to (again) become Shadow Foreign Secretary. From then on-out, along with holding “Tipple with Tony” sessions with members of the PLP, Blair gained support and strength for a future leadership bid.
The originally ‘Mod’, while older and greyer than he once was, had built a coalition within the party of MPs, MEPs and party members behind him. Union links, which he cultivated by his close friendship with fellow Northeast MP John Prescott, made him the front-runner.
Patten, sensing the threat posed by Blair, was reported to be sponsoring Blair to become the EU Commission President. The sensational reports from The Sunday Times, that Blair was tipped to succeed Helmut Kohl, came the Sunday after the general election. With Neil Kinnock’s term as Vice President of the Commission coming to an end, it was no secret Kinnock preferred Blair as his successor. Blair, in his appearance on Nick Robinson’s Breakfast Politics Show, denied these rumours, but they had a specific purpose and effect. The rumours were enough incentive for several other big hitters to join the race for the leadership, rather than letting Blair have free reign.
Labour’s Deputy Leader Jack Straw (elected back in 1991 with Robin Cook) threw his hat into the ring, figuring if he wanted to become leader, then this would be his last opportunity. Becoming the leader of HM Opposition (albeit temporarily) Straw gained significant press coverage and public support from party members. However Straw, by biding his time, simply was too old and too familiar and not what the party needed to rebuild after two crushing losses.
The left wingers in the party, while able to find a suitable candidate in the deputy leadership election found their MPs split between the campaigns of Chris Smith, Clare Short and Jeremy Corbyn (who failed to reach the requisite threshold for nomination to run for the leadership).
Chris Smith, the first openly gay male MP and Cabinet Minister (served as Chief Secretary of the Treasury from 1996-2000) was a left-winger, allied closely with Margaret Beckett and had served as her shadow Chancellor since Bill Morris’ retirement in 2002. While Smith had struggled in such a visible position and had been forced into multiple embarrassing U-turns as Shadow Chancellor, he was still well liked by the left of the party.
Clare Short, an outspoken and prominent member of Cook’s cabinet was another candidate who ran to the left of Blair/Staw. Short, originally been appointed as International Development Secretary before resigning in 1995 from the government to protest British intervention into North Africa, was well acquainted with the anti-war wing of the Party. Later reappointed as Transport Secretary in 1998 and spearheaded a major electrification programme of National Rail got her a reputation for efficiency and integrity. However, cryptic and often outlandish statements including saying that 2004 was a “good result for Labour” and that left-wing MP Lynne Jones “wasn’t a true feminist” made MPs and union officials wary of backing Short, for fear of her acting similarly as leader.
Rounding out the field was Chris Lennie, a 2000 intake, but a long-time Labour Party official who took a Milburn-esque approach to the campaign by pledging fiscal responsibility and so-called “Blue Labour” policies.
As the leadership contest began informally, MPs began running around Westminster rallying candidates for nominations and support. Blair, speaking to his campaign staff a few days after announcing his leadership bid, felt chest pains and went light-headed.
Rushed to hospital, Blair was told he had suffered a small heart attack as a result of an abnormal heart rhythm. While undergoing surgery to fix his heart condition, the operation made clear the stakes of the leadership. Blair after a long conversation with his wife Cherie (herself unexpectedly pregnant at the time of the leadership contest) announced that he would be suspending his campaign, fearing the rigours of leadership would greatly worsen his health. Speaking outside of St Thomas’ hospital, Blair announced that he would be withdrawing from the leadership campaign, an event with seismic proportions for the leadership campaign.
From a coronation to a slug-match, MPs and leadership contenders scrambled. Straw, by process of elimination, became the front runner but a distinctly uninspired frontrunner. The “Mod’s” having coalesced around Blair panicked and demanded a new candidate to represent their wing.
Blair, from his hospital bed, approached Paul Boateng to run for the leadership. Shadow Home Secretary Paul Boateng, one of the first black MPs and a former human rights lawyer defending the rights of minorities and a strong opponent of the apartheid regime in South Africa. However, unlike his fellow black MPs elected in 1987, Boateng was a moderate and a modernizer, along with being close politically to Tony Blair. Boateng served a series of positions in Cook’s cabinet and would be promoted to Shadow Home Secretary after Beckett became leader. As Shadow Home Secretary, Boateng was seen a strong media performer and gained the respect of Labour whips, MPs and members. A stop-gap candidacy perhaps, but Boateng was not to be underestimated. Being the first MP to visit Blair in hospital after his heart attack (and Blair’s subsequent endorsement of Boateng) sealed the deal for Boateng as the Mod's candidate.
The first ballot for the leadership election highlighted the divided and splits within the party. With no candidate cracking 30% of the vote, Boateng had nonetheless won the first ballot.
As preferences were tabulated and Lennie, Short and Smith were knocked out, it became a two man fight between Straw and Boateng. Boateng had the advantage. Inheriting John Prescott from Blair, Boateng was able to woo union support. Along with left-wing MPs and party-members, who respected Boateng’s previous career and life story, Boateng was clearly favoured by party members. And to the public, Boateng was more well-known and well-liked than Straw, with polling showing Boateng to be more electable than Straw, a significant boon for sceptical MPs. And so the final round saw Boateng triumph over Straw, with Blair seen applauding from the side-lines.
Meanwhile, the concurrent deputy leadership election saw three candidates nominated and forwarded. The Mod’s candidate was Kevin Barron, the Chair of the PLP, and a behind-the-scenes man who oversaw and worked with Cook/Beckett to implement significant reforms to Labour’s constitution (including the introduction of OMOV in 1997).
The left-winger, Diane Abbott, spoke of the need for Labour to embrace the activist left and be more willing to oppose the controversial reforms initiated by the Tory government, (to welfare and law and order especially). Angela Eagle, the middle ground between the two, rounded out the field. Compared to the leadership election, Barron was easily able to best his opponents. With Eagle’s support coalescing around Barron even before voting had closed, Barron romped home to a sizeable victory.
Immediately after the election, all eyes turned to Tony Blair. Blair, ever since his close loss in 2000 against Beckett, had spent his time wisely. Ambitious, Blair stayed in Westminster and rejected, like Brown, moving out of the bubble. Loyal to Beckett, accepting a significant demotion with minimal grumbling, Blair had gained a lot of respect for being a team-player and was thus rewarded by Beckett. When Peter Hain took up a role at the U.N., Blair stepped up to (again) become Shadow Foreign Secretary. From then on-out, along with holding “Tipple with Tony” sessions with members of the PLP, Blair gained support and strength for a future leadership bid.
The originally ‘Mod’, while older and greyer than he once was, had built a coalition within the party of MPs, MEPs and party members behind him. Union links, which he cultivated by his close friendship with fellow Northeast MP John Prescott, made him the front-runner.
Patten, sensing the threat posed by Blair, was reported to be sponsoring Blair to become the EU Commission President. The sensational reports from The Sunday Times, that Blair was tipped to succeed Helmut Kohl, came the Sunday after the general election. With Neil Kinnock’s term as Vice President of the Commission coming to an end, it was no secret Kinnock preferred Blair as his successor. Blair, in his appearance on Nick Robinson’s Breakfast Politics Show, denied these rumours, but they had a specific purpose and effect. The rumours were enough incentive for several other big hitters to join the race for the leadership, rather than letting Blair have free reign.
Labour’s Deputy Leader Jack Straw (elected back in 1991 with Robin Cook) threw his hat into the ring, figuring if he wanted to become leader, then this would be his last opportunity. Becoming the leader of HM Opposition (albeit temporarily) Straw gained significant press coverage and public support from party members. However Straw, by biding his time, simply was too old and too familiar and not what the party needed to rebuild after two crushing losses.
The left wingers in the party, while able to find a suitable candidate in the deputy leadership election found their MPs split between the campaigns of Chris Smith, Clare Short and Jeremy Corbyn (who failed to reach the requisite threshold for nomination to run for the leadership).
Chris Smith, the first openly gay male MP and Cabinet Minister (served as Chief Secretary of the Treasury from 1996-2000) was a left-winger, allied closely with Margaret Beckett and had served as her shadow Chancellor since Bill Morris’ retirement in 2002. While Smith had struggled in such a visible position and had been forced into multiple embarrassing U-turns as Shadow Chancellor, he was still well liked by the left of the party.
Clare Short, an outspoken and prominent member of Cook’s cabinet was another candidate who ran to the left of Blair/Staw. Short, originally been appointed as International Development Secretary before resigning in 1995 from the government to protest British intervention into North Africa, was well acquainted with the anti-war wing of the Party. Later reappointed as Transport Secretary in 1998 and spearheaded a major electrification programme of National Rail got her a reputation for efficiency and integrity. However, cryptic and often outlandish statements including saying that 2004 was a “good result for Labour” and that left-wing MP Lynne Jones “wasn’t a true feminist” made MPs and union officials wary of backing Short, for fear of her acting similarly as leader.
Rounding out the field was Chris Lennie, a 2000 intake, but a long-time Labour Party official who took a Milburn-esque approach to the campaign by pledging fiscal responsibility and so-called “Blue Labour” policies.
As the leadership contest began informally, MPs began running around Westminster rallying candidates for nominations and support. Blair, speaking to his campaign staff a few days after announcing his leadership bid, felt chest pains and went light-headed.
Rushed to hospital, Blair was told he had suffered a small heart attack as a result of an abnormal heart rhythm. While undergoing surgery to fix his heart condition, the operation made clear the stakes of the leadership. Blair after a long conversation with his wife Cherie (herself unexpectedly pregnant at the time of the leadership contest) announced that he would be suspending his campaign, fearing the rigours of leadership would greatly worsen his health. Speaking outside of St Thomas’ hospital, Blair announced that he would be withdrawing from the leadership campaign, an event with seismic proportions for the leadership campaign.
From a coronation to a slug-match, MPs and leadership contenders scrambled. Straw, by process of elimination, became the front runner but a distinctly uninspired frontrunner. The “Mod’s” having coalesced around Blair panicked and demanded a new candidate to represent their wing.
Blair, from his hospital bed, approached Paul Boateng to run for the leadership. Shadow Home Secretary Paul Boateng, one of the first black MPs and a former human rights lawyer defending the rights of minorities and a strong opponent of the apartheid regime in South Africa. However, unlike his fellow black MPs elected in 1987, Boateng was a moderate and a modernizer, along with being close politically to Tony Blair. Boateng served a series of positions in Cook’s cabinet and would be promoted to Shadow Home Secretary after Beckett became leader. As Shadow Home Secretary, Boateng was seen a strong media performer and gained the respect of Labour whips, MPs and members. A stop-gap candidacy perhaps, but Boateng was not to be underestimated. Being the first MP to visit Blair in hospital after his heart attack (and Blair’s subsequent endorsement of Boateng) sealed the deal for Boateng as the Mod's candidate.
The first ballot for the leadership election highlighted the divided and splits within the party. With no candidate cracking 30% of the vote, Boateng had nonetheless won the first ballot.
As preferences were tabulated and Lennie, Short and Smith were knocked out, it became a two man fight between Straw and Boateng. Boateng had the advantage. Inheriting John Prescott from Blair, Boateng was able to woo union support. Along with left-wing MPs and party-members, who respected Boateng’s previous career and life story, Boateng was clearly favoured by party members. And to the public, Boateng was more well-known and well-liked than Straw, with polling showing Boateng to be more electable than Straw, a significant boon for sceptical MPs. And so the final round saw Boateng triumph over Straw, with Blair seen applauding from the side-lines.
Meanwhile, the concurrent deputy leadership election saw three candidates nominated and forwarded. The Mod’s candidate was Kevin Barron, the Chair of the PLP, and a behind-the-scenes man who oversaw and worked with Cook/Beckett to implement significant reforms to Labour’s constitution (including the introduction of OMOV in 1997).
The left-winger, Diane Abbott, spoke of the need for Labour to embrace the activist left and be more willing to oppose the controversial reforms initiated by the Tory government, (to welfare and law and order especially). Angela Eagle, the middle ground between the two, rounded out the field. Compared to the leadership election, Barron was easily able to best his opponents. With Eagle’s support coalescing around Barron even before voting had closed, Barron romped home to a sizeable victory.
Last edited:
The fact as well he's still one of the youngest candidates in the leadership contest is wild, especially considering in OTL Brown was making moves to replace him by this time.
Well, if you check my test thread you might find what the original plan was.
Again, *spoilers*, but let's just say an election in 2009 (the wikibox says) isn't a good sign for the incumbents. I'll leave it at that than risk anything else.
To be honest, I would have thought that he wouldn't have heart problems since he isn't in high office of Prime Minister yet ITTL.
My general opinion with alternate history and health problems like Cancer or Heart Problems is that you might as well just ‘eh heads or tails’ and pick which works better for your story.
I do think going a different route than ‘It’s Blair’ works for the story where the Labour Party is more comfortably leftward as it were.
I do understand your point about the heart issues and whether they would come to prominence without the stress of being PM.
And I know I've fridged a fair few people, but I've only done so with those who either had a OTL close brush with death or an underlying health conditions/rumours regarding them, like Thatcher, Blair, Murdoch and Saddam.
The reason I've done so is for story dynamics, to really push TTL away from OTL (like Thatcher, Blair and Saddam) and to "write out" certain people who dominate OTL politics/society etc.
And yes, there is no appetite for OTL Blairism or "New Labour" in TTL. I did consider whether OMOV would even be introduced in this TL as Labour was comfortably in government in 1994, but thought the move would probably be pushed through regardless. Clause IV is still in the Labour constitution as of 2004, though Boateng is making noises with buzzwords like 'transformation; and 'renewal' and Clause IV is now, by-far, seen as ridiculously antiquated in the bright and sparkly neo-liberal 21st century.
Ah sorry, I forgot about Jospin. That's a pretty good exception to the rule.
The assassination was meant to fit into the story as to show the radicalisation of French politics after Noel. Rather than try and show it through parliament elections with a stronger FN and a more rightist Union/UMP/LR or riots on the streets.
It acts as a tragic (if blunt) event which shows the state of politics in France at the turn of the millennium.
2004 US presidential election
Republicans, eager for a fight, saw a wide field of candidates throw their hats in to the race. From South Dakota's former Senator Larry Pressler, to Oklahoma’s Governor Steve Largent, the range of ideologies and personalities was vast.
The front runner was Judd Gregg, Lamar Alexander’s running mate and New Hampshire’s senior Senator. Alexander, who had cultivated a moderate presence in the Senate, was firmly in-line with the Thompson consensus. Judd Gregg however was not the best campaigner and lacked some of his primary rivals deep pockets and clear factional support. A conservative, rather than a fire-breathing radical, Gregg failed to capture voters excitant.
A formidable challenger to Gregg was Senator Fred Thompson, who like President Holtzman, had cut his teeth in Watergate. Becoming Tennessee’s Senator in 1995, sensationally beating Senate Minority Leader Jim Sasser in 1994 saw Thompson, gave Thompson an air of invincibility to his campaign. F. Thompson offered a similar T. Thompson-ite agenda of tax cuts, deregulation and hawkishness, humorously stating during a primary debate that there was “only one candidate up here who can deliver a Thompson Agenda”.
Neither of these men would be the party’s nominee, however. It would instead by Senator Newt Gingrich of Georgia who took the crown. Gingrich, like Thompson before him, tapped into the base of the Republican Party and exploited it ruthlessly. The senior senator from Georgia (taking Sam Nunn’s seat in 1989) had got significant institutional and public support from the party. Being the Senate Majority whip to Thad Cochran’s leader saw the Republican Party represented a significant shift to the right for the Senate caucus, with many moderate Republicans retiring in the early 2000s (including Jim Jeffords and Arlen Specter, who was defeated by Representative Pat Toomey primary challenger in 2004 after Specter's support proved critical to pass AHA). To regular GOP voters, Gingrich represented the next Reagan, a man unabashed and proud of his nation and his conservatism, undoubtably a winning combination to them.
Gingrich had spent his two decades in Washington cultivating a wide array of supporters, donors and allies. And unlike Gregg and Thompson, Gingrich offered a different form of conservatism, one which was unapologetic and unashamed. And so, Gingrich's campaign focused on a conservative (some would argue populist) bread-and-butter list of fiscal and social conservatism with significant emphasis placed on wooing the evangelical wing of the GOP. Gingrich’s “Contract with America” summarized his confident campaign and his charismatic public persona saw him go from strength-to-strength.
As candidates dropped out from the race, Gingrich used his influence to gain their endorsements and their voters. When Iowa had its caucus, his coalition was practically unsinkable. Alongside being powered by the voice, funds and votes of outside organizations like the Club for Growth and the Traditional Values Coalition meant Gingrich had sown up the Republican nomination by Super Tuesday. Choosing Dan Lungren as his running mate was a olive branch to more moderate GOP members, and gave Gingrich significant access to well-financed California donors. It was a strong ticket.
Holtzman, speaking to the Democratic National Convention in 2004, reignited the spirit of her first campaign. In front of thousands, Holtzman proclaimed that this election was an inflection point. The progress seen since the millennium, on social and civil rights, on the withdrawal from foreign conflicts, on healthcare, was on the line. Gingrich, and the Republican Party, energized and increasingly dominated by the voices of neo-conservatives and evangelicals, was unlike any previous candidate or campaign. Newt Gingrich, to a large portion of Americans, represented the worst impulses of modern-day America. A born-again evangelical, his campaign became a mission for the most zealous of surrogates, to reclaim America. Holtzman warned that his supporters saw everything she had achieved as an aberration.
Going on the defensive on the trail, Holtzman spoke of the achievements of the AHA, arguably the most significant piece of legislation introduced since the Great Society. Holtzman spoke of the stable economy going from ‘strength-to-strength’ and the successful withdrawal of troops from Northern Africa. The only way to secure this way by electing her to a second term.
Gingrich’s surrogates ruthlessly attack Holtzman as well, as an out-of-touch elitist who at best sneered at the fly-over nation and middle America and at worst conspired to steal their guns, healthcare and their liberties.
A surprising flashpoint in the election was went Holtzman spoke of her support for gay marriage, an unprecedented endorsement and far outside the political zeitgeist. Gingrich railed against gay marriage and Holtzman’s support for it, pledging a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage nationwide, and to introduce a Defense of Marriage Act, to ban federal recognition of same-sex marriage.
Whilst most Democrats (outside of those in comfortable golden states and cities) supported civil unions, Holtzman’s endorsement forced significant numbers to embrace gay marriage too. Her move was lauded by the HRC and various other liberal pressure groups and in a particularly ironic campaign, Holtzman was celebrated as America’s “first gay President”, a particular cutting endorsement considering the millions who still looked at suspicion at the unmarried woman occupying the White House.
While polling showed voters disapproved of the practice (and Holtzman’s support), her endorsement of gay marriage was seen as a turning point for gay rights in the Western world, with various states and cities began to legalize the practice as Holtzman jarred the nation towards marriage equality.
The flurry caused by Holtzman meant that in September, Gingrich was the clear favourite. As the first presidential debate rolled around, it was an all or nothing battle for Holtzman. However, rather than win the debate, Gingrich decisively lost. Gingrich came off as overly aggressive and borderline misogynistic, sighing heavily when Holtzman spoke and cutting into her time continually. Polling showed women were more affected by the debate than men, with polling showing the gender-gap to be the widest seen in modern times.To men, however, Gingrich’s ‘tough-man’ persona was a balm to those who thought they had been left behind in “Lizzie’s America”, to quote a song by the Dixie Chicks.
The October Surprise of a deadly terror attack in Pyongyang, with insurgents and suicide bombers killing 19 American troops, reframed the election on foreign affairs, to Holtzman’s disadvantage. Democrats, who had focused heavily on defending healthcare and the AHA were sidelined as voters looked critically at Holtzman’s foreign policy.
Despite this, Democrats went into election night, believing that Holtzman would pull it off. She’d done it once before. Her voters were motivated. She was the incumbent and had that advantage, and unlike other Democratic predecessors, had significant achievements.
As results trickled in however, these hopes turned flat. The first warning sign was Florida being declared almost immediately for Gingrich when polls closed. The state which cemented Holtzman’s victory in 2000 had decisively turned against the President. Further, states which Democrats hoped would be competitive, like Iowa, Virginia and New Hampshire all remained Republican with suburban voters backing Gingrich (however narrowly). When Ohio was called for Gingrich, Holtzman made the call and conceded the race.
Gingrich entered the White House with unbridled optimism. He had a majority of the nation behind him, significant Congressional majorities which largely aligned with his ideology and a raft of competent and capable staffers behind him. His inauguration speech promised to return America to greatness and to support the hard-working man and woman who had been overlooked and ignored by Holtzman and those costal elites. He would repeal the AHA and give the people back their freedom. He would cut taxes to grow the economy and give the people a much-needed break. He would see an end to affirmative action and protect the sanctity of marriage. And he would see America willing to “fight the good fight” on the global stage. It was an ambitious and ultra-conservative agenda.
“So help me God.”
Would be cool if he faces the same sexual assault scandal that forced him to resign as Speaker OTL, forcing him to resign as President ITTL.