Exocet - the Effects of a different Falklands

Ah Blair… nothing seemed able to kill him off, until he got high on his own supply that is - still, it is undeniable that he had some sort of magnetism and charisma

Leaving the ecu is an interesting point for people to make, for it would surely cause utter economic catastrophe to a degree that Brexit’s consequences seem tiny - as such it seems quite unlikely that such an idea would ever win over 50%+1 of the country, but you never know
 
Good stuff. Interesting seeing Laws, Clegg, Littlewood et al as Tories - a byproduct of Heseltine and Patten being ascendant, I’d think, since they’re probably not that far off the Orange Book.

And a Blair who’s a creature of the late 2000s/2010s rather than the 90s… 👀👀👀
A more moderate Conservative Party (which honestly is equivalent to Orange Book [with a bit more socially conservative pledges]) snipes off a few of the more right-wing Lib Dems in OTL and Alliance immensely suffers as a result. Unlike in OTL, the Lib Dems/Alliance don't have strong and charismatic leaders, (their most successful leader has been Menzies Campbell, which considering his OTL leadership doesn't paint the party in a good light) and Heseltine/Patten did a lot to open up the party to social and economic liberals.

There is however, a lot of hostility in the party to these "young guns", both from right-wing MPs and Conservative party members. There can't be a complete move towards a liberal Tory party without some form of swing back, and it's something Patten's second term will become defined by.

Ah Blair… nothing seemed able to kill him off, until he got high on his own supply that is - still, it is undeniable that he had some sort of magnetism and charisma

Leaving the ecu is an interesting point for people to make, for it would surely cause utter economic catastrophe to a degree that Brexit’s consequences seem tiny - as such it seems quite unlikely that such an idea would ever win over 50%+1 of the country, but you never know

Tony Blair, who's only 51/52 in 2004 is the man to beat. He's got the experience, the charisma, the intelligence and has the benefit of being against Beckett and only narrowly losing against her in the last Labour leadership election. Even with butterflies, and divergences and all that, it's difficult to write out certain people who are somehow 'destined ' or at least has the acumen to be in power. Blair, simply can't be ignored in a post 80s TL in Britain is what I'm saying.

Such a referendum, or even the question of a referendum on British membership, would probably both cause the ecu to crash, Europe's economy to suffer and would see Britain ostracised in both Europe and internationally for said move. A referendum is a non-starter, as unlike with Brexit, it's impossible for Britain to leave without significant and immediate consequences for the entire world.
And, with 13.1% of the country voted for an alt-UKIP 11 years before the party's heyday, there's going to be a crossroads met soon.
 
BBC.web 11/6/04
And here continues my side-quest of getting a different type of BBC News formatting system from the 1990s, early 2000s, mid-2000s and then on completed for this thread.

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.​
 
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However, Sergey Shakhray a constitutional scholar and Khasbulatov’s Vice President, enjoyed some success by entrenching Russian democracy and political freedoms. Shakhray, working closely with various liberal figures in Democratic Russia (including Galina Starovoytova), proved critical in the formulation of the 1995 Constitution, enshrining democracy, and human rights. The Constitution was narrowly approved via referendum the same year despite a concerted effort by the Communists and other agitators to make the referendum a proxy on Khasbulatov’s continued leadership.
OTL Shakhray Constitution project inqluded:
-- 6-years Presidental term
-- bicameral Parliament (yes, it would be called Parliament)
-- Upper House - Federal Assembly (rus Федеральное собрание, Federalnoe Sobranie)- 2 members from every region elected for 3 years term
-- Lower House - People's Council (rus Народный совет, Narodnyi Soviet) - 400 members elected for 4-years term.
 
A more moderate Conservative Party (which honestly is equivalent to Orange Book [with a bit more socially conservative pledges]) snipes off a few of the more right-wing Lib Dems in OTL and Alliance immensely suffers as a result. Unlike in OTL, the Lib Dems/Alliance don't have strong and charismatic leaders, (their most successful leader has been Menzies Campbell, which considering his OTL leadership doesn't paint the party in a good light) and Heseltine/Patten did a lot to open up the party to social and economic liberals.

There is however, a lot of hostility in the party to these "young guns", both from right-wing MPs and Conservative party members. There can't be a complete move towards a liberal Tory party without some form of swing back, and it's something Patten's second term will become defined by.



Tony Blair, who's only 51/52 in 2004 is the man to beat. He's got the experience, the charisma, the intelligence and has the benefit of being against Beckett and only narrowly losing against her in the last Labour leadership election. Even with butterflies, and divergences and all that, it's difficult to write out certain people who are somehow 'destined ' or at least has the acumen to be in power. Blair, simply can't be ignored in a post 80s TL in Britain is what I'm saying.

Such a referendum, or even the question of a referendum on British membership, would probably both cause the ecu to crash, Europe's economy to suffer and would see Britain ostracised in both Europe and internationally for said move. A referendum is a non-starter, as unlike with Brexit, it's impossible for Britain to leave without significant and immediate consequences for the entire world.
And, with 13.1% of the country voted for an alt-UKIP 11 years before the party's heyday, there's going to be a crossroads met soon.
Interesting… now I’m curious if Patten can serve out his full term…
 
Love these little internet things
Yeah it adds a bit of flavour to it and I think just makes it a bit more believable (considering the amount of wacky stuff that happens in TTL) and it’s a (needed) change from continual wikiboxes.

OTL Shakhray Constitution project inqluded:
-- 6-years Presidental term
-- bicameral Parliament (yes, it would be called Parliament)
-- Upper House - Federal Assembly (rus Федеральное собрание, Federalnoe Sobranie)- 2 members from every region elected for 3 years term
-- Lower House - People's Council (rus Народный совет, Narodnyi Soviet) - 400 members elected for 4-years term.
Ah right… If this is what Shakhray proposed as a constitution, I’ll be honest and say I chose him mostly as a stand-in for a “social liberal, human rights-esque” politician, rather than doing in-depth research into his exact beliefs and plans for a constitution. Rather than try and fit in Shakhray and his ideas, I might retcon both his presence as Khasbulatov’s VP and the 1996 constitution. Khasbulatov probably wouldn’t be interested in constitutional reform anyway considering his OTL actions.

Honestly as well, the further I was getting into writing the Khasbulatov and later Lebed arc for Russia, I was noticing that I had written myself into a corner with it. A liberal constitution should probably stop Lebed, but for plot reasons it can’t.

If you’ve got any ideas about who could be a good replacement for Shakray as Khasbulatov’s VP give me a shout.
Interesting… now I’m curious if Patten can serve out his full term…
Again, like with Cook’s second term, there are reasons for the election being held in 2009, rather than 2008 after all.
 
2004 European Parliament election
The 2004 European Parliament election in the United Kingdom was held concurrently with the 2004 general election which saw Chris Patten’s Conservatives returned to power with an increased majority. The 2004 European Parliament elections would show the threat the euroskeptic Union party posed to both the British political establishment and continuing membership in the EU. In an ironic twist of fate, Britain would register one of the highest turnouts in Europe for the election, but would also see an influx of euroskeptic MEP’s join Strasbourg partially as a result of his higher turnout. In a breakthrough for the Union party, the party gained significantly in both seat and vote shares. Mirroring the regions which had the most significant share of the vote for “Keep”, Union polled first in the Tory strongholds of the East of England South East England.

An oddity of the European Parliament election saw Union gained significantly more votes than in the general election, largely as a result of the more proportional voting system held for EP elections. Union, in some Tory seats, would endorse euroskeptic candidates like Edward Leigh and David Davis and in battleground seats voters felt more able to choose Union over the established parties with less fears of a spoiler effect. The results would also confirm to both the Tory and Labour party the necessity of FPTP to maintain the duopoly in Westminster, as a change to a more proportional system could see such parties make bigger gains.

Union had an eclectic leader with Zac Goldsmith, who had been elected as an MEP in 1999 as a “Keep UK” MEP. Goldsmith, despite his youth, his rich roots and his relative inexperience was well regarded amongst his fellow MEPs. Coming close to winning the constituency of North East Norfolk in 2000 was the best of both worlds, keeping him as an MEP but ensuring a party profile. Becoming both Union’s lead candidate and then (with Pim Fortuyn), the euroskeptic grouping in Strasbourg’s leader greatly advanced his profile and image.

Whilst Union never came close to knocking off Labour from second position, Union had established itself as a force to be reckoned with. Labour, under new EP leader Lucy Powell, failed to reverse the decline of the party faced by the since 1999 and pointed to the challenges the party faced in the new decade. While the Conservatives did see a significant decline in its vote share, Emma Nicholson the leader of the Conservative grouping, portrayed the results as positive, with the Conservatives maintaining its position as the largest party and (thanks to the way the votes were cast nationally) didn’t see a significant loss in its seat total even as there was a hefty swing against them.

The Alliance, perhaps the most pro-Europe party in the election and with Chris Davies being both the main organiser of the liberal grouping ALDE in Brussels, continued its decline nationally, despite the ALDE doing well across Europe.

The Greens, led via collective responsibility, benefited greatly from Labour’s slump and gained a seat in the North West of England, while holding both its London and South East seat in the process.

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On the European level, the two main parties (the European People's Party [EPP] and Party of European Socialists [PES]) saw success. The EPP (or national parties constituting the EPP) winning a clear plurality of both vote and the seats. Success in Spain, Italy, Germany, Greece and the UK buoyed the centre-right governments in such nations. The PES did surprisingly well in the new Eastern Europe states (which participated in these EP elections, rather than had happened with the 1995 tranche) as did the ALDE.

When the dust settled, the results were seen as a vindication of the policies taken by the Kohl Commission, even if not the man himself. Corruption allegation which involved by Kohl personally, stemming from his time as German Chancellor and of his commission had led to his official censure by the European Parliament in 2002 and an attempt to reinstall Kohl as Commission President was seen an non-starter. Avoiding such a scenario meant that long before 2004, it was clear that Kohl would not be serving another term as Commission President.

This vacancy would mean a new candidate was needed to become Commission President. Unlike in 1994 however, the EU had dramatically changed since when the position was last open. With a significant influx of Eastern European states, their was a rebalancing with Europe’s centre moving to the East. Along with such a geographical movement, the influx of new people and cultures had burnt out the Commission and Parliament, with Kohl’s tenure being the most active in European Union history.

Despite the continuing negotiations on drafting a European Constitution, and with the ecuzone being created in January 2005, it seemed as if there was an impulse to slow down and focus on European internal affairs.

With the EPP and PES invigorated by the results of the election, there was a clear majority in favour of a mainstream candidate. The EPP wanted a moderate, and accepted that perhaps there should be another party to have a chance at the job, while the PES pushed hard for one of its own. The new swathe of nations accepted in 2004 played hard-ball, wanting a less europhillic Commission than Kohl’s had been and one from a newer member state, rather than one from a state who had been with the EU from its inception.

What began as a leak from the Patten Government which was only covered in Westminster circles, was the attempt to make Tony Blair, the former Foreign Secretary and soon-to-be candidate for Labour Party leadership, to become the next Commission President. A clearly transparent move (similar to Gordon Brown’s 2000 posting to become IMF chief) to take Blair out of domestic politics, however still had its merits. Blair was naturally charismatic, had a good reputation on the continent and after being out of frontline politics in the last few years seemed low-key enough to be a different style of Commission President than Kohl.

Blair however, would not be interested. During an interview with the BBC’s Political Editor John Pienaar during the Labour leadership election, Blair categorically ruled out that he wanted to become Commission President and that perhaps the “rumour mill was spinning a bit too fast”.

Candidates included Greece’s Konstantinos Simitis, Spain’s José María Aznar and Sweden’s Göran Persson who were all discussed as a potential candidate for Commission President. However, it would be Gro Harlem Brundtland, the former Norwegian PM who had singlehandedly seen Norway join the EU during the 1994 referendum (before becoming an MEP in 1999) who ticked all the boxes. Moderate, from the PES, from a nominally euroskeptic nation, but who personally had impeccable credentials, credibility and europhillic tendencies, she was an acceptable compromise and was acclaimed as the next European Commission President.

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And Borrell as head of the EU Parliament - interesting.

Good stuff as always! Wild to see Goldsmith so active at such a young age. His profile seems much more… Gladstonian than the typical Brexiteer. I take it “Union” is a bit more grab-bag/incoherent ideologically than UKIP?
 
Pim Fortuyn still alive. Nice.
I've killed off a fair few people in this TL and it's time to swing the needle back a bit.
And Borrell as head of the EU Parliament - interesting.

Good stuff as always! Wild to see Goldsmith so active at such a young age. His profile seems much more… Gladstonian than the typical Brexiteer. I take it “Union” is a bit more grab-bag/incoherent ideologically than UKIP?
Thank you!

Borell has only a slightly different journey than in OTL to become European Parliament President, as he becomes leader of the opposition after Solano's government is defeated in 2000 but chooses to resign as PSOE leader in 2003 rather than fight the next election. He spends the next year basically laying the groundwork for a jump to European politics, goes on to become an MEP before swiftly being elevated to become Parliament President.

Goldsmith is yeah, *very* young in 2004 but he's got his euroskeptic and *very* rich dad backing him up and he's one of the more higher profile MEPs so it's a no-brainer to make him the party leader in Strasbourg. He definitely presents a different image than the typical Union politician (see Farage, Campbell Bannerman and Kilroy-Silk et al.) and he is environmentally conscious (in OTL he was a environmental magazine "Ecology" editor) which makes him more than a one trick pony, which helps.

Union isn't even really a political party, it's more a cross-party euroskeptic grouping which co-ordinates resources, figures and money to try and turn back the tide. A stronger EU-UK relationship raised the stakes, so there's less division (despite the colourful personalities). You'd get your UKIP-ers, your Referendum Party, Veritas, billionaire businessmen who oppose the EU and have infinite resources, some Kate Hoey types and some more toxic elements with probably some BNP representation in Union. It's very similar to the SDP-Liberal Alliance pre-1983, but with more parties represented.

Cohn Bendit leading the green, a nightmare
I take it you're not a fan!
As Germany has the most Green MEP's then that means there's a leadership position for them in the Parliamentary grouping and he's able to slip in there.
But with the EPP and PES holding a majority in the EP, it's unlikely anything is going to happen to give him any influence in Parliament.
 
I've killed off a fair few people in this TL and it's time to swing the needle back a bit.

Thank you!

Borell has only a slightly different journey than in OTL to become European Parliament President, as he becomes leader of the opposition after Solano's government is defeated in 2000 but chooses to resign as PSOE leader in 2003 rather than fight the next election. He spends the next year basically laying the groundwork for a jump to European politics, goes on to become an MEP before swiftly being elevated to become Parliament President.

Goldsmith is yeah, *very* young in 2004 but he's got his euroskeptic and *very* rich dad backing him up and he's one of the more higher profile MEPs so it's a no-brainer to make him the party leader in Strasbourg. He definitely presents a different image than the typical Union politician (see Farage, Campbell Bannerman and Kilroy-Silk et al.) and he is environmentally conscious (in OTL he was a environmental magazine "Ecology" editor) which makes him more than a one trick pony, which helps.

Union isn't even really a political party, it's more a cross-party euroskeptic grouping which co-ordinates resources, figures and money to try and turn back the tide. A stronger EU-UK relationship raised the stakes, so there's less division (despite the colourful personalities). You'd get your UKIP-ers, your Referendum Party, Veritas, billionaire businessmen who oppose the EU and have infinite resources, some Kate Hoey types and some more toxic elements with probably some BNP representation in Union. It's very similar to the SDP-Liberal Alliance pre-1983, but with more parties represented.


I take it you're not a fan!
As Germany has the most Green MEP's then that means there's a leadership position for them in the Parliamentary grouping and he's able to slip in there.
But with the EPP and PES holding a majority in the EP, it's unlikely anything is going to happen to give him any influence in Parliament.
Well my problem with Cohn Bendit is mostly about what he said when he was young and well he is not someone very likeable
 
Well my problem with Cohn Bendit is mostly about what he said when he was young and well he is not someone very likeable
Ah yes I understand now.

I was going with him as he was the Green leader in OTL but I’ll edit him out after checking him over again and replace him with another Green MEP.
 
Ah yes I understand now.

I was going with him as he was the Green leader in OTL but I’ll edit him out after checking him over again and replace him with another Green MEP.
No need for that, there are no proof he did what he said so it still possible for Cohn Bendit to lead the Green. I find him disgusting but still you dont have to modify your creation because of my opinion.
 
No need for that, there are no proof he did what he said so it still possible for Cohn Bendit to lead the Green. I find him disgusting but still you dont have to modify your creation because of my opinion.
Eh, I need to sort out the box anyway, (damn Zac Goldsmith and his seat), so I'm going in that direction anyway. Anyway, disregarding the man himself, he wouldn't be a good fight with the Green Party of Germany as in TTL (which is primarily an Eastern German and socially liberal party which nonetheless has significant Green credentials).
But you missed Borrell...
Damn, you really don't like Borrell? 🤕
 
One Exocet missile from an Argentinian Super Étendard fighter jet, changed the tide of the Falklands War. The HMS Invincible, one of two British aircraft carriers in the South Atlantic at the time, was struck and rendered inoperable by the hit. The killing of 28 of the sailors onboard, including HRH Prince Andrew, was a profound blow to both the morale and the strategic position of the British armed forces.

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Without the HMS Invincible at peak capacity, British air supremacy was lost, leaving both the troops fighting in the Falklands and the navy at sea in a far more tenuous position. Further, with the air capacity of the British cut in half, the fighters, and helicopters, critical to supporting the conflict, soon found themselves lacking a safe place to refuel and resupply. Images of a Westland Wasp being pushed into the sea from the deck of the HMS Invincible, encapsulated the crisis. By June 10, British military command recognised the situation to be untenable and ordered a tactical and temporary retreat from the Falklands, with the belief that by September, with the arrival of HMS Illustrious, the conflict could be won.

Margaret Thatcher, the British Prime Minister and one of the strongest advocates for military action, promised a return to fighting whilst the fleet limped home to Portsmouth. The apathetic British public, meanwhile, were consigned to defeat and proved resistant to continuing the conflict. Opposition leader Michael Foot, who in an ill-timed but immortalized quote, called this the “end of the British Empire”. The cries of “SHAME!” from the Sun newspaper, in response, proved out-of-touch with the public mood. Instead, the headline from Time magazine, ‘The Empire Strikes Out’ proved a more cutting and prescient appraisal of the conflict.

Military command, recognising the human and economic costs of the conflict alongside the Argentineans digging in, advised Thatcher against a second attempt to liberate the islands which she grudgingly agreed to. She would, however, continue to sabre-rattle and threaten the Argentinean junta, whilst diplomatic channels were opened by the Americans.

Through these secret backchannels (and the collapse of the Galtieri junta), by December 1982, an agreement was reached which saw the U.N. establish a protectorate in the Falklands. This protectorate would last for ten years with Argentina gaining access to the fishing reserves around the islands. Thatcher almost refused to sign the Madrid Accords, wanting instead to send Foreign Secretary Francis Pym in her stead. Thatcher, partially elected on her promise to cure the declinism infecting the British spirit, had overseen the greatest embarrassment since the Suez Crisis.

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So the Invincible is damaged not lost. The Royal Navy retires, the Invincible is repaired, the Illustrious is completed. The Bulwark is repaired also and the British return to the South Atlantic later in 1982 with four carriers instead of two. The Argentinians are routed and the Falklands remain British.
 
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